USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Monday, 28 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Uptrend, pausing under day high · RSI 54 · price 1.41758
Higher-low chain since Asian low; tight early-Asia drift below day high.
London broke above Monday's Asian range high at 1.4164. Higher lows followed at 1.4149 and 1.4155 (ny low), and price printed a 1.4177 day high late in NY as the widening Fed-BoC gap kept CAD heavy. Early Asia is holding just under the day high after the rollover low at 1.4166 held the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 54 and ATR about 3 pips in thin trade.
Support: 1.41656, 1.41552, 1.41475
Resistance: 1.41772, 1.4180
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4177 day high opens the 1.4180 round number
Failure to hold the 1.4166 rollover low exposes the 1.4155 ny low and the higher-low line
A break below the 1.4148 asian low negates the higher-low chain
Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) could materially shift this read
23:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, compressing below day high · RSI 56 · price 1.41758
Higher lows since Asian low; tight early-Asia coil under 1.4177.
USD/CAD broke above Monday's Asian range (1.4148–1.4164) in London as the Fed-BoC yield gap widened. The NY dip held the 1.4155 ny low, keeping the higher-low line from the 1.4148 day low intact. Early Asia is now coiling on the 1.4170 asia base just under the 1.4177 day high, with RSI(14) neutral near 56 and ATR around 3.4 pips.
Support: 1.4170, 1.41656, 1.41552
Resistance: 1.41772, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4177 day high opens the 1.4200 round number
Loss of the 1.4170 asia base exposes the 1.4166 rollover low, which sits at the 38.2% fib of the day low-high leg
Break of the higher-low line and the 1.4155 ny low ends the intraday HL chain
Canada GDP (Tue 12:30 UTC) and US JOLTS (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
23:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum flattening near day high · RSI 56 · price 1.41754
Higher lows since Asia, tight post-rollover base under 1.4177.
London broke above the 1.4148–1.4164 Asian range and NY extended to a 1.4177 day high. The widening Fed-BoC gap kept USD/CAD bid, with a higher low near 1.4160 after the 16:15 UTC spike and the 14:30 swing low at 1.4155 holding the rising trendline. Since rollover, price has held a late base around 1.4170, just above the 50% fib of the NY leg, with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 1.4170, 1.4160, 1.41552
Resistance: 1.41772, 1.4190
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4177 day high opens the key res at 1.4190
Loss of the 1.4170 late base puts the higher low at 1.4160 and the rising trendline in play
Break below the 1.4155 swing low ends the intraday HH/HL chain
Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
22:46 UTC
Uptrend, pausing in thin early Asia · RSI 54 · price 1.41728
Higher-low chain from the London low; Asian range broken higher during London.
Monday's move builds on the six-session USDCAD advance as the widening Fed-BoC gap keeps CAD heavy. London cleared the 1.4148–1.4164 Asian range, and NY printed higher lows at 1.4155 (ny low) and 1.4158 before a late-session day high at 1.4177. The rollover dip to 1.4166 (rollover low) held near the 38.2% fib and above the rising trendline from the london low at 1.4149, and early Asia is consolidating at 1.4173 with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 1.41656, 1.41552, 1.41487
Resistance: 1.41772, 1.4180
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4177 day high extends the higher-high sequence toward the 1.4180 round number
Break below the 1.4166 rollover low and the rising trendline (~1.4163) exposes the 38.2–61.8% fib zone down to the ny low at 1.4155
Loss of the 1.4149 london low breaks the intraday higher-low chain
Canada GDP (Tue 12:30 UTC, f/c 0%) and US JOLTS (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
22:31 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below day high · RSI 54 · price 1.41727
HH/HL chain from London low; tight Asia consolidation.
Monday built a HH/HL chain off the 1.41487 London low, holding a 1.41603 higher low after the 1.41749 spike rejection, then pushing to a 1.41772 day high late in NY as the widening US-Canada yield gap kept CAD heavy. Early Asia is holding an asia base near 1.4170 just under that high, with RSI(14) neutral near 54 and ATR(14) compressed to about 3.4 pips.
Support: 1.4170, 1.41603, 1.41487
Resistance: 1.41772, 1.4190
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.41603 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain and the trendline from the London low
Loss of the 1.4170 asia base exposes the 38.2% retracement of the London leg near 1.4166
Acceptance above the 1.41772 day high opens the path to 1.4190 key res
Canada GDP (Tue 12:30 UTC, f/c 0%) and US JOLTS (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain after London break of Asian range, holding near session high.
London broke the Asian range high at 1.4164 and NY printed a string of higher lows at the 1.4155 NY low, the 1.4158 post-fix low and 1.4160, lifting price to a 1.4177 session high as the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.27% on Fed hike bets. The thin rollover dip to the 1.4166 rollover low held at the 38.2% fib. Early Asia trade is sitting just under the high with RSI(14) at 58.
Support: 1.41656, 1.41603, 1.41552
Resistance: 1.41772, 1.4180
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4177 session high extends the higher-high chain, with the 1.4180 round number next
A break of the 1.4160 post-fix low, then the higher-low line near the 1.4155 NY low, undercuts the uptrend read
Canada GDP (12:30 UTC) and US JOLTS (14:00 UTC) on Tuesday could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain from Asian base, marginal new session high.
Monday stepped higher off the 1.4148 Asian base. The session high printed at 1.4177 late in NY, with the 16:15 UTC spike rejection at 1.4175 absorbed above the 1.4162 swing low on a rising lows sequence, as Fed hike pricing kept USD firm. After NY close, the rollover wick tagged 1.4166 near the 50% fib of the 1.4155 NY low to 1.4177 leg, and price is pinned just under EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 1.41656, 1.4162, 1.41552
Resistance: 1.41772, 1.4190
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4177 session high opens the path to 1.4190 resistance
Loss of the 1.4166 rollover low and the 1.4162 swing low puts the 61.8% fib and 1.4155 NY low in play
Break below 1.4155 and the rising lows trendline ends the higher-low sequence
Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC and US JOLTS 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
21:31 UTC
Uptrend, momentum flattening after NY close · RSI 55 · price 1.41705
Higher lows from London low; day high 1.4177 capping into rollover.
Monday built rising lows from the London low at 1.4149 through the NY low at 1.4155 and a 1.4160 swing low. Late NY then set a day high at 1.4177, above the 1.4150 area the digest flags, on firm Fed-hike pricing and 5.27% US 10y yields. After NY close, price is easing to 1.4170 in thin rollover trade, sitting just under EMA20, with RSI(14) near 55 and no extreme.
Support: 1.4160, 1.41552, 1.41487
Resistance: 1.41772, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4160 swing low breaks the rising lows chain and exposes the NY low at 1.4155
Acceptance above the 1.4177 day high puts the 1.4200 round number in view
Canada GDP (Tue 12:30 UTC, f/c 0%) and US JOLTS (Tue 14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Rollover spread noise near 1.4166 is not structural; the Asia session range forms from here
Asian range broken higher in London; HH/HL sequence through NY into rollover.
USDCAD cleared the 1.4148–1.4164 Asian range during London and printed a session high at 1.4177 late in NY, as the widening Fed-BoC gap overrode a firmer oil tape. The 16:15 UTC rejection at 1.4175 on the Iran sanctions headline was bought from the 1.4158 spike low. The rollover dip to 1.4166 tagged the 50% fib of the 1.4155–1.4177 leg, with the rising trendline from the London low still beneath.
Support: 1.41656, 1.4158, 1.41487
Resistance: 1.41772, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4158 spike low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 1.4177 session high opens the 1.4200 psych level
Loss of the 1.4166 rollover low exposes the 61.8% fib near 1.4164
Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%): a beat could trigger CAD short-covering against this move
Deeper failure back through the 1.4149 London low would negate the Asian range breakout
Higher lows through NY, capped at 1.4177 session high.
USDCAD ground up to a 1.4177 session high through late NY on firm US yields. It built higher lows from 1.4160 after a 16:15 UTC drop to 1.4158, around the Iran sanctions-relief headlines, was retraced within the bar. The final bar slipped under the NY rising trendline with RSI(14) near 58, leaving the 1.4169 swing low (50% fib of the 1.4160–1.4177 leg) as nearest support.
Support: 1.41688, 1.41603, 1.41552
Resistance: 1.41772, 1.4190
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4169 swing low breaks the NY higher-low chain
Loss of the 1.4160 higher low reopens the 1.4155 NY low
Close above the 1.4177 session high exposes 1.4190 analyst res cited in the CAD digest
Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC and Iran/oil headlines could materially shift this read
20:46 UTC
Uptrend, steady grind higher into late NY · RSI 64 · price 1.41769
Higher-low chain from the London low, fresh session high above prior high.
USDCAD cleared the 1.4175 prior high, which had capped a sharp NY-hours rejection earlier. It printed a session high at 1.4177 in thin post-NY trade as the Fed-BoC yield gap keeps CAD heavy. Higher lows at 1.4155, 1.4158 swing low and 1.4169 hold the rising trendline, with RSI(14) near 64 and not stretched.
Support: 1.4175, 1.41688, 1.4158
Resistance: 1.41772, 1.4180
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4175 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break
Break of the rising trendline and the 1.4169 higher low ends the higher-low chain; 1.4158 swing low next
Round number at 1.4180 is the first cap; the CAD digest flags 1.4190 as the next resistance
Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) could materially shift this read
20:31 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher in late NY · RSI 64 · price 1.41761
Higher-low chain from 1.4155 NY-open low, fresh session high at 1.4177.
USDCAD is printing fresh session highs at 1.4177 late in NY hours. It is stacking higher lows off the 1.4155 NY open low along the rising trendline, with the widening Fed-BoC gap keeping CAD heavy. The 16:15 UTC spike to 1.4158 was absorbed; RSI(14) sits near 64 and ATR is about 4 pips as liquidity thins into the Asia handover.
Support: 1.41687, 1.4158, 1.41552
Resistance: 1.41769, 1.4190, 1.4200
What it said to watch
A close back below the 1.4169 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Failure to hold the 1.4158 spike low exposes the 1.4155 NY open low and the 61.8% of the London-NY leg
Acceptance above the 1.4177 session high puts the 1.4190 res from the CAD digest in play, then the 1.4200 round number
Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
20:16 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into highs · RSI 64 · price 1.41743
Higher lows since 14:30 UTC, highs compressing near 1.4176.
London cleared the 1.4164 Asian high, and the pair has since held a chain of higher lows from 1.4155 on the Fed-BoC yield-gap theme. The 16:15 UTC rejection at 1.4175 bottomed at the 1.4158 spike low and was fully retraced. Late NY is now printing a marginal session high at 1.4176, with the 1.4169 swing low underneath and RSI(14) near 64.
Support: 1.41687, 1.41639, 1.4158
Resistance: 1.41761, 1.4190, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4169 swing low breaks the late-NY higher-low chain
Failure to hold the 1.4164 Asian high exposes the 1.4158 spike low and the higher lows line
Acceptance above the 1.4176 session high brings 1.4190 key res and the 1.4200 round number into view
Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) could materially shift this read
20:02 UTC
Uptrend, highs compressing at session top · RSI 61 · price 1.41743
Higher lows since London open, flat highs 1.4173–1.4176.
USD stayed bid through Monday on the bullish open and 10y yields at 2007 highs. Late NY is pressing the 1.4176 session high on a chain of higher lows: 1.4149, the 1.4155 ny low, the 1.4160 swing low and the 1.4169 higher low. Highs have been capped at 1.4173–1.4176 since the 16:15 UTC rejection.
Support: 1.41687, 1.41603, 1.41552
Resistance: 1.41761, 1.4190
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4176 session high exposes key res at 1.4190
Loss of the 1.4169 higher low, the 38.2% fib zone, puts the 1.4160 swing low in play
Break of rising support and the 1.4155 ny low ends the intraday higher-low chain
Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) and Iran sanctions headlines could shift this read
19:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pressing day high · RSI 58 · price 1.41727
Higher lows since NY low, day high retested.
London cleared the Asian range high near 1.4164. The 16:15 UTC spike to the 1.4175 day high reversed to a 1.4158 spike low on the Iran sanctions-relief headlines, and late NY rising lows from 1.4160 have carried price back to retest the day high with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR about 5 pips. The NY leg fib 50% sits near 1.4165.
Support: 1.41687, 1.4158, 1.41552
Resistance: 1.41749, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4175 day high opens the 1.4200 round number
Loss of the 1.4169 swing low breaks the rising lows trendline
Break below the 1.4155 ny low negates the NY higher-low sequence
Further Iran sanctions-relief headlines could repeat the 1.4158 spike low
Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled CAD risk
19:31 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under day high · RSI 55 · price 1.41727
Higher lows compressing beneath a triple-tested 1.4173–1.4175 cap.
London cleared the Asian range high near 1.4164, and NY stretched to a 1.4175 day high. That high has capped three tests, including the sharp 16:15 UTC reversal, as the widening US-Canada yield gap keeps the pair pinned at two-month highs. Late-NY trade is coiling above a 1.4169 late shelf on rising lows off the 1.4155 NY low, with RSI(14) neutral near 55 and the 1.4162 higher low sitting at the 50% fib of the London leg.
Support: 1.41687, 1.4162, 1.41552
Resistance: 1.41749, 1.4190
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4175 day high breaks the triple-test cap and puts the 1.4190 flagged res in view
Loss of the 1.4169 late shelf and the 1.4162 higher low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 1.4155 NY low
Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) and US-Iran sanctions-relief headlines could materially shift this read
19:02 UTC
Uptrend, compressing under session high · RSI 55 · price 1.4171
Higher lows into a flat 1.4173-1.4175 cap.
USDCAD held Monday's climb from the Asian range through London and NY on firm US yields and hike repricing, but the session high at 1.4173-1.4175 has capped price three times. Each NY dip has made a higher low, from the 1.4155 NY low to the 1.4160 higher low, with the rising trendline from the 1.4149 London low still intact and RSI(14) neutral near 55 late in NY.
Support: 1.4160, 1.41552, 1.41487
Resistance: 1.41749, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.4175 session high opens the path to the 1.4190 cited resistance and the 1.4200 round number
Break of the 1.4160 higher low and the rising trendline exposes the 1.4155 NY low, then the 1.4149 London low
Canada GDP (Tue 12:30 UTC) and US JOLTS could materially shift this read; Iran sanctions headlines remain a risk to the USD bid
18:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling under session high · RSI 53 · price 1.41701
Higher lows from London low, capped at 1.4173-75.
London broke the Asian range high near 1.4164 on firm USD yields. NY printed a 1.4175 session high, but a sharp rejection wick sent price back to the 61.8% fib of the London-NY leg near 1.4158. Rising lows at the 1.4149 London low, the 1.4155 NY low and the 1.4160 higher low remain intact after London close, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 1.4160, 1.4155, 1.4149
Resistance: 1.4175, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4175 session high reopens the 1.4200 round number
Break of the 1.4155 NY low and the rising lows trendline ends the higher-low chain
Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC and US JOLTS 14:00 UTC could reset this read
US-Iran sanctions-relief headlines hitting oil and yields could pressure USD during Asia session
18:31 UTC
Uptrend, capped at session high · RSI 55 · price 1.41691
Higher lows 1.4149→1.4155→1.4160 under a 1.4173-1.4175 ceiling.
Hawkish Fed repricing kept USDCAD climbing from the 1.4149 london low. London cleared the Asian high at 1.4164, and higher lows then printed at the 1.4155 ny swing low and the 1.4160 higher low. The 1.4175 session high drew a sharp rejection late in NY, with the wick holding the higher-low trendline near the 61.8% retrace, and price is grinding back to 1.4169 with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 1.41603, 1.41552, 1.41487
Resistance: 1.41749, 1.4190
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4175 session high opens the flagged 1.4190 resistance
Break of the 1.4160 higher low and the trendline ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.4155 ny swing low
Loss of the 1.4149 london low would negate the day's uptrend structure
Canada GDP (Tue 12:30 UTC) and US JOLTS (Tue 14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
18:16 UTC
Uptrend, capped at session high · RSI 56 · price 1.41671
Higher lows under a flat 1.4173–1.4175 cap.
USDCAD opened the week with a small gap lower and climbed from the Asian range to fresh 2-month highs on a firm USD and Oct Fed-hike repricing. The late-NY push to the 1.4175 session high was rejected back to a 1.4158 spike low. Higher lows at the 1.4149 london low and the 1.4155 ny swing low keep the rising trendline intact under a flat session high cap. RSI(14) is neutral near 56, ATR(14) about 6 pips.
Support: 1.4158, 1.41552, 1.41487
Resistance: 1.41749, 1.4190
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4175 session high breaks the cap; the 1.4190 res flagged in the CAD digest is next
Loss of the 1.4158 spike low and the 1.4155 ny swing low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain
Below the 1.4149 london low, the London–NY advance is fully retraced
Canada GDP (Tue 12:30 UTC) and US JOLTS/Fedspeak Tuesday could materially shift this read
Higher lows since London; spike rejection at 1.4175 high.
London broke above the Asian range high at 1.4164, and NY extended to a session high at 1.41749 before a sharp rejection back to 1.4158. The rising trendline off the london low at 1.41487 still holds, with higher lows at the ny low of 1.41552 and 1.41603. Late NY is compressing under the high, RSI(14) is near 55 and ATR is about 6 pips, while hawkish Fed pricing keeps USD firm.
Support: 1.41603, 1.41552, 1.41487
Resistance: 1.41749, 1.4190
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.41749 session high reopens the path toward the 1.4190 flagged res
Break of the 1.41603 higher low puts the 1.41552 ny low and the rising trendline in play
Loss of the 1.41487 london low invalidates the intraday uptrend read
Canada GDP (Tue 12:30 UTC) and US JOLTS (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher lows intact; sweep and rejection at 1.4175, lower high at 1.4169.
London broke the Asian range high at 1.4164 and ran to 1.4173. NY swept that level with a marginal session high at 1.4175, then rejected hard to a 1.4158 spike low, the 61.8% of the day's upleg, as Iran sanctions-relief headlines trimmed USD gains. The rising lows off the 1.4148 asian low still hold, and price is idling back at the Asian high with RSI(14) near 53.
Support: 1.4158, 1.4155, 1.4148
Resistance: 1.4169, 1.4175
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.4155 ny low breaks the rising lows chain and exposes the 1.4148 asian low
A reclaim of the 1.4169 lower high reopens the 1.4175 session high
Canada GDP (12:30 UTC) and US JOLTS (14:00 UTC) on Tuesday, plus US-Iran headlines, can reprice this intraday structure
17:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 51 · price 1.41642
Higher lows intact, second push to 1.4175 rejected.
London broke the Asian high near 1.4164 and ran to 1.4173 as the wider Fed-BoC rate gap kept CAD heavy. After London close, a second push printed a session high at 1.4175 and was sharply rejected. Higher lows at the london low (1.4149) and ny low (1.4155) still define the rising trendline, with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and price just under EMA20.
Support: 1.41552, 1.41487
Resistance: 1.41749, 1.4190
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4155 ny low breaks the rising trendline and turns the twin highs at 1.4173/1.4175 into a double top
M15 close above the 1.4175 session high opens the 1.4190 res cited in the CAD digest
Failure to hold the 1.4149 london low erases the day's higher-low sequence
Canada GDP (Tue 12:30 UTC) and US JOLTS (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
HL chain from London low; spike off session high bought back.
Monday's climb on the widening Fed-BoC gap made a new session high at 1.4175 in NY hours, just above the 1.4173 midday peak. The move reversed sharply to a 1.4158 spike low, near the 61.8% fib of the London advance, and has been bought back to 1.4169. The rising trendline from the 1.4149 London low through the 1.4155 swing low is intact.
Support: 1.4158, 1.41552, 1.41487
Resistance: 1.41749, 1.4190
What it said to watch
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC, the first bar after this read, could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 1.4175 session high extends the higher-high sequence and opens the 1.4190 resistance
A break of the 1.4158 spike low and 1.4155 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.4149 London low
Asian range broken higher; HH/HL chain with NY session-high rejection.
London cleared the Asian high at 1.4164, and NY extended to a session high of 1.4175 before a 17-pip rejection wick at 16:15 UTC. The dip held above the 1.4155 swing low, keeping the rising lows off the 1.4149 London low intact as rate-gap pricing keeps CAD heavy. RSI(14) sits near 55 and ATR is about 6.5 pips.
Support: 1.4164, 1.41552, 1.41487
Resistance: 1.41749, 1.4200
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4175 session high extends the HH chain toward the 1.4200 round number
Price back below the 1.4164 Asian high puts the breakout retest in play
A break of the 1.4155 swing low snaps the rising lows and exposes the 1.4149 London low
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC, then CA GDP and JOLTS on Tuesday, could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from London low; double top at 1.4173/75 with neckline at the NY low 1.4155.
London broke above the Asian high at 1.4164 and ran to 1.4173 as wide US-Canada rate-gap pricing kept USD firm. The late-NY push to 1.4175 was a false break and dropped about 15 pips in one bar, leaving a double top. Price now sits on the 61.8% fib of the London advance and the rising trendline, just above the NY low at 1.4155.
Support: 1.4155, 1.4149, 1.4138
Resistance: 1.4164, 1.4175
What it said to watch
M15 close below the NY low at 1.4155 confirms the double top and exposes the london low at 1.4149, then the asian low at 1.4138
Reclaim of the asian high at 1.4164 weakens the double top read and puts 1.4175 back in focus
Break of the rising trendline from the London low would end the intraday HH/HL chain
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC, within the next two bars, could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since London low; mid-NY retest of the London high.
London cleared the asian high at 1.4164 from a 1.4149 london low. The early-NY dip held 1.4155 (ny low), extending the rising lows, and price is now pressing the london high at 1.4173 with RSI(14) near 63, not stretched. Firm USD on October-hike pricing continues to weigh on CAD.
Support: 1.41639, 1.41552, 1.41487
Resistance: 1.41733, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 acceptance above the london high at 1.4173 opens the 1.4200 round number
M15 close back below the asian high at 1.4164 turns the push into a false break
Break of the rising lows line and the ny low at 1.4155 ends the HL sequence; london low 1.4149 is next
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read; CA GDP Tue 12:30 UTC is the next CAD risk
HH/HL chain; NY higher low at 1.4155, now retesting the London session high.
London broke the Asian range after the Asia high at 1.4164 gave way, and set a session high at 1.4173. NY printed a higher low at 1.4155, above the london low and holding the rising support line, before returning to test that high. RSI(14) sits near 58, and CAD softness on the widening Fed-BoC gap keeps the pair bid near two-month highs.
Support: 1.41639, 1.41552, 1.41487
Resistance: 1.41732, 1.4190, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4173 session high opens the 1.4190 resistance, then the 1.4200 range top
A move back below the 1.4164 asia high puts the breakout under pressure; losing the 1.4155 ny low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising support
Deeper than the london leg fib 61.8% (~1.4158) without a new high weakens the uptrend read; the london low at 1.4149 is the structural floor
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC, within the next ~1h, could shift the USD leg of this read
Higher lows from London low; second test of 1.4173 session high.
London broke the Asian high at 1.4164 and ran to a 1.4173 session high as USD firmed on October-hike pricing. The NY dip held a 1.4155 swing low, about a 73% retrace of the London leg, which keeps higher lows intact above the 1.4149 london low. Price is back at the session high with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 1.41639, 1.41552, 1.41487
Resistance: 1.41732, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4173 session high extends the leg toward the 1.4190 area and the 1.4200 round number
Loss of the 1.4155 swing low breaks the higher-lows chain and exposes the 1.4149 london low
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift this read; Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC is the next CAD risk
Higher lows above London low, session high 1.4173 capping.
London broke the Asian high at 1.4164 and set a session high at 1.4173 on the wider Fed-BoC rate gap. The NY dip held the 1.4155 NY low, a higher low above the 1.4149 London low, and price has recovered toward the 1.4170 NY high with RSI(14) near 51.
Support: 1.4164, 1.4155, 1.4149
Resistance: 1.4170, 1.4173, 1.4190
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4173 session high extends the higher-high chain toward 1.4190 res
Loss of the 1.4155 NY low and the higher-low trendline breaks the intraday uptrend; the 1.4149 London low is next
Holding the Asian high at 1.4164 as support keeps the breakout read intact
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
London broke Asian high, NY higher low at 1.4155, retesting session high.
London cleared the Asian high at 1.4164 and printed a session high at 1.4173 as firm-USD Fed repricing kept CAD heavy. The NY pullback held a higher low at 1.4155, about a 73% retrace of the london leg, and price is back near 1.4169 testing the session high, with RSI(14) mid-range.
Support: 1.41639, 1.41552, 1.41487
Resistance: 1.41732, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.41732 session high extends the higher-high chain toward the 1.4200 psych level
Loss of the 1.41552 ny low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.41487 london low
Asian high at 1.41639 is first pivot; failure there shifts the read to a range under the session high
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
London broke the asian high at 1.4164 and ran to a 1.4173 session high. The NY-hours pullback held at 1.4155 (ny low), between the 61.8% and 78.6% of the London leg and on the rising trendline, and price is now back retesting the asian high. The sixth-day advance tracks the wider Fed-BoC gap, but RSI(14) near 46 shows momentum has cooled from the late-London push.
Support: 1.41639, 1.41552, 1.41487
Resistance: 1.41694, 1.41732
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4169 lower high reopens the 1.4173 session high
Close below the 1.4155 ny low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain, exposing the 1.4149 london low
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift the USD leg during late NY hours
Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) is the next CAD catalyst
Asian range break held on retest; lower highs since 11:45 UTC peak.
London broke the Asian high at 1.4164 and reached a session high at 1.4173, extending the Fed-BoC divergence move to fresh two-month highs. NY hours retraced about 70% of the London leg to the 1.4155 NY low before price recovered to the Asian high, with lower highs from the peak still capping.
Support: 1.4164, 1.4155, 1.4149
Resistance: 1.4169, 1.4173
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4169 lower high and 1.4173 session high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.4155 ny low puts the 1.4149 london low in play and negates the breakout retest
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift USD pricing late in the NY session
Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) is the next CAD-side catalyst
London break above Asian high faded; lower highs since 1.4173.
London lifted USDCAD through the Asian high at 1.4164 to a session high of 1.4173 as USD firmness on Fed hike repricing extended the two-month high. NY has faded the move with a lower-high sequence, and price is back below the Asian high at the 61.8% fib near 1.4158, just above the NY low at 1.4156. RSI(14) sits near 42, with price below EMA20 and slipping under EMA50.
Support: 1.4156, 1.4149
Resistance: 1.4164, 1.4173
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian high at 1.4164 negates the false-break read and puts the session high at 1.4173 back in play
Break of the NY low at 1.4156 exposes the london low at 1.4149, the base of the London leg
Lower-highs trendline from 1.4173 caps; a close above it ends the NY fade
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
14:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, fading in NY · RSI 45 · price 1.41588
Lower highs since 1.4173, back below Asian high.
London cleared the asian high at 1.4164 and ran to a 1.4173 session high on firm USD and hawkish Fed repricing. Early NY has carved lower highs and slipped back to 1.4159, near the 61.8% of the london leg fib and just above the ny low at 1.4157, with RSI(14) cooled to ~45 and price holding near EMA50.
Support: 1.4157, 1.4154, 1.4149
Resistance: 1.4164, 1.4173
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian high at 1.4164 and the lower highs line restores the London uptrend read
Failure to hold the swing low at 1.4154 exposes the london low at 1.4149 and a full retrace of the london leg fib
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian-high breakout, NY pullback to 50% fib holding.
London broke the 1.4164 Asian high and set a 1.4173 session high as the widening Fed-BoC gap extended the USD/CAD rally. NY hours pulled price back to a 1.4161 NY low, near the 50% fib of the London leg from the 1.4149 London low. Buyers stepped in there and price is back at the Asian high, capped by a lower-highs line with the latest lower high at 1.4169.
Support: 1.4164, 1.4161, 1.4149
Resistance: 1.4169, 1.4173
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4161 NY low turns the Asian high retest into a false break
Break of the lower-highs line through 1.4169 and the 1.4173 session high resumes the London advance
Loss of the 1.4149 London low unwinds the day's breakout
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift this read; Canada GDP due Tue 12:30 UTC
London broke above the Asian range to a HH at 1.4173; NY pullback holding the 1.4161 area with lower highs near 1.4169.
London cleared the Asian range high near 1.4164 and printed a fresh two-month session high at 1.4173 as the widening Fed-BoC gap kept CAD heavy. NY hours have been a shallow pullback that held the 50% fib of the London leg at the 1.4161 NY low. A ny cap of lower highs around 1.4169 is limiting the rebound for now.
Support: 1.4161, 1.4149
Resistance: 1.4169, 1.4173
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4161 ny low breaks the 50% fib and opens the 1.4149 london low
Close above the 1.4169 ny cap and 1.4173 session high resumes the HH chain
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift this read; Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC is the next CAD risk
13:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 49 · price 1.41621
London breakout above Asian high, lower highs since 1.4173 session high.
London broke the Asian high at 1.4164 and printed a session high at 1.4173 at 11:45 UTC, helped by a firm USD on hawkish Fed pricing. Since then a run of lower highs has pulled price back to the breakout level, which is now being retested near the 50% fib of the London move at 1.4161. RSI(14) is neutral near 49 and ATR(14) is about 4 pips as NY opens.
Support: 1.4161, 1.41539, 1.41487
Resistance: 1.41639, 1.41694, 1.41732
What it said to watch
Holding M15 closes back above the 1.4164 asian high restores the breakout read; a close above the 1.4173 session high resumes the leg
Price is already trading below the 1.4164 breakout; a break under the 1.4154 swing low would turn it into a false break and exposes the 1.4149 london low
A close above the 1.4169 lower high breaks the pullback sequence
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift USD tone into the NY afternoon
13:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing in a pullback · RSI 57 · price 1.41645
Higher lows from 1.4149; Asian high broken, now under retest.
London held a higher low at 1.4149 (london low), broke above the Asian high at 1.4164 and printed a session high of 1.4173 late London as USD stayed firm on Fed hike pricing and the widening Fed-BoC gap. The first hour of NY is retesting the broken Asian high, which lines up with the 38.2% of the London leg fib, with price hugging EMA20 and RSI(14) cooling to about 57.
Support: 1.4163, 1.4154, 1.4149
Resistance: 1.4169, 1.4173
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the asian high at 1.4163 turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the 50% London leg fib near 1.4161 and the friday high at 1.4154
Close above the lower high at 1.4169 and the session high at 1.4173 resumes the higher-high chain
Loss of the london low at 1.4149 breaks the intraday higher-low structure
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC today and Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
13:16 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 61 · price 1.41648
Higher highs and higher lows since Asia; Asian high being retested.
USDCAD cleared the Asian high at 1.4164 late in London, printing a session high at 1.4173 on firming October Fed hike bets before easing into the NY open. Price is back at the Asian high, near the 50% fib of the 1.4154–1.4173 leg, with higher lows at 1.4149 (london low) and 1.4154 (swing low) intact and ATR near 4 pips.
Support: 1.41639, 1.41539, 1.41487
Resistance: 1.41732, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4164 asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4154 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.4149 london low
Close above the 1.4173 session high reopens the 1.4200 round number
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift USD hike pricing and this read
Higher lows since Asia; Asian range broken higher, now retesting it.
London cleared the Friday high and later the Asian high at 1.4164, reaching a 1.4173 session high as Fed October hike odds held above 70%. The pullback into the London-NY transition has held the old Asian high, which sits on the 38.2% fib of the London leg from 1.4149, and the higher-low chain remains intact.
Support: 1.41636, 1.41539, 1.41487
Resistance: 1.41732, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4164 asian high would turn the breakout into a false break and expose the 50–61.8% fib zone at 1.4158–1.4161
Failure to hold the 1.4149 london low breaks the intraday higher-low sequence
A close above the 1.4173 session high opens the path to the 1.4200 round number
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read; CA GDP is due Tue 12:30 UTC
Higher lows from London low; Asian high broken and now being retested.
London cleared the Asian high at 1.4164 and printed a session high at 1.4173 as the dollar firmed on October Fed hike bets. Price is now back on the Asian high into the NY open, with RSI(14) cooling to ~64. The 1.4164 retest also sits on the 38.2% of the London low-to-high leg.
Support: 1.41639, 1.41601, 1.41487
Resistance: 1.41732, 1.4190
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4160 swing low (50% fib) undercuts the Asian high retest
Loss of the 1.4149 London low breaks the higher-low sequence
Close above the 1.4173 session high opens 1.4190 resistance
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift the read; CA GDP due Tue 12:30 UTC
Higher lows since London low; Asian range broken above.
London broke the Asian high at 1.4164 and ran to a session high at 1.4173, extending the Fed-hike-driven USD/CAD rally. The 12:00 UTC dip held just above the broken Asian high, near the fib 38.2% of the London leg. Higher lows off the London low at 1.4149 remain intact, and RSI(14) is near 69 and cooling off the high.
Support: 1.4164, 1.4161, 1.4149
Resistance: 1.4173, 1.4190
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman speaking at 12:15 UTC (now) and Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the asian high at 1.4164 and the fib 50% at 1.4161 puts price back inside the Asian range
Close above the 1.4173 session high opens the path to upper res at 1.4190
Break of the London rising line, then failure of the 1.4149 london low, ends the higher-low sequence
12:16 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 67 · price 1.41681
Asian range broken higher in London; higher lows since the 08:00 UTC dip.
London held the 1.4149 london low, then broke the 1.4164 asian high and ran to a 1.4173 session high on firm USD and Fed-hike pricing. The 11:45 UTC bar was rejected off that top, and RSI(14) is cooling to about 67.
Support: 1.4164, 1.4154, 1.4149
Resistance: 1.4173, 1.4190
What it said to watch
Bowman speaks at 12:15 UTC and Cook at 17:15 UTC. Either could materially shift this read.
An M15 close above the 1.4173 session high exposes the 1.4190 flagged res.
The 1.4164 asian high is the breakout retest. Failure there puts the 1.4154 friday high and the 1.4149 london low back in play.
A break of the rising trendline from the London low ends the higher-low sequence.
The fib 50% of the London leg sits near 1.4161, just under the asian high.
London cleared the asian high at 1.4164 and the London leg off 1.4149 extended to a session high at 1.4173, the pair's sixth straight day higher on Fed-hike pricing and the wider US-Canada rate gap. The last bar left a wick rejection at that high. Higher lows at 1.4149, 1.4154 and the 1.4160 swing low keep the rising trendline intact, with RSI(14) near 66 and not stretched.
Support: 1.41639, 1.41601, 1.41487
Resistance: 1.41732, 1.4190
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and the NY open could materially shift this read
A close back below the asian high at 1.4164, where the London leg 38.2% sits, would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.4160 swing low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain
A break below the london low at 1.4149 negates the intraday uptrend
A close above the 1.4173 session high opens the 1.4190 cited res from the CAD digest
11:46 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 71 · price 1.41672
Higher-low chain since London open, Asian range high broken.
London cleared the Asian high at 1.4164 after the 08:00 UTC dip held the london low at 1.4149. That extends the six-day USD/CAD rally on Fed-hike repricing, with higher lows at 1.4154 and the 1.4160 swing low tracking the higher-low trendline. RSI(14) near 71 is hot but not extreme as price tests the 1.4167 session high into the London-NY transition.
Support: 1.41639, 1.41601, 1.41487
Resistance: 1.41674, 1.4190
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read.
An M15 close back below the asian high at 1.4164 turns the breakout into a false break.
Losing the 1.4160 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and puts the 50% of the London leg near 1.4158 in play.
A clean hold above the 1.4167 session high opens the path toward flagged resistance at 1.4190.
Failure below the london low at 1.4149 unwinds the entire London leg.
11:31 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 63 · price 1.41637
Higher lows since the London low, marginal break of Asian high.
Late London session: USDCAD pushed through the Asian high at 1.4164 to a session high of 1.4166. It holds a higher-low chain off the 1.4149 London low and the 1.4154 swing low, extending the six-day rally on Fed-hike repricing. RSI(14) at 63 and a 4-pip ATR point to a grind higher rather than an impulsive break.
Support: 1.4154, 1.4149
Resistance: 1.4166, 1.4190
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC, early in NY hours, could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.4154 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline
Failure to hold the 1.4149 london low reverts price into the lower Asian range
Sustained trade above the 1.4166 session high opens the path toward 1.4190 resistance
11:16 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows through London · RSI 58 · price 1.41626
HL chain off London low, testing session high near Asian high.
London held the 08:00 UTC dip at 1.4149 (london low). Higher lows along the rising London HL trendline then carried price to a 1.4166 session high, just through the 1.4164 Asian high, as Fed-hike bets kept USD firm. Price is now retesting that area with RSI(14) near 58. Friday's high at 1.4154 marks the last higher low below.
Support: 1.41539, 1.41487
Resistance: 1.41655, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4154 (friday high) breaks the London HL chain and the rising trendline
Acceptance above the 1.4166 session high opens the path toward the 1.4200 round number
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift USD hike pricing into the NY session
A move back below 1.4149 (london low) returns price to the Asian range
11:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 56 · price 1.41626
Higher lows through London, marginal poke above Asian high.
USD firmness on October Fed-hike bets carried the London leg from a 1.4149 London low to a 1.4166 session high, briefly above the 1.4164 Asian high. No M15 close has held above that high yet, and price is idling near 1.4163 with RSI(14) neutral around 56 and a 1.4160 higher low beneath.
Support: 1.4160, 1.4154, 1.4149
Resistance: 1.4166, 1.4190
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4166 session high opens the 1.4190 prior res flagged in commentary
Loss of the 1.4160 higher low, then the 1.4154 swing low, turns the Asian-high poke into a failed break
Break of the 1.4149 London low undoes the London higher-low structure
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift the USD leg of this read
London higher-low chain; marginal probe above Asian high.
Mid-London, USD/CAD probed the Asian high at 1.41639 to a 1.41655 session high on firm Fed-hike pricing and the ongoing CAD slide, but the bar closed back below it. London higher lows at the 1.41487 london low and the 1.41539 prior high (Friday's top) keep the intraday uptrend intact. RSI(14) ~57 is not stretched, and ATR runs about 4.5 pips.
Support: 1.41539, 1.41487
Resistance: 1.41655, 1.4190
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.41655 session high puts 1.4190 res, the cited CAD resistance, in view
M15 close back below the 1.41539 prior high breaks the London higher-low chain
Loss of the 1.41487 london low undercuts the intraday uptrend read
A hold of the 50% of the London leg near 1.4157 keeps the pullback shallow
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read
10:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows through London · RSI 61 · price 1.41634
Asian range 1.4148–1.4164 being tested at the top.
USD/CAD rallied through Asia to 1.4164. London dipped to a 1.4149 london low, then based at the 1.4154 friday high and pressed to a marginal new session high at 1.4165. The bid tracks firm October Fed-hike pricing. RSI(14) near 61 and ATR around 4 pips point to steady, not stretched, momentum.
Support: 1.4154, 1.4148
Resistance: 1.4165, 1.4190
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4165 session high confirms a break of the Asian range, with the analyst-flagged 1.4190 resistance next
Slip back below the 1.4154 friday high breaks the london higher-low line and returns price to the range
Failure to hold the 1.4148 london low breaks the intraday higher-low chain
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
10:16 UTC
Uptrend, pressing range top · RSI 62 · price 1.41609
Higher lows under a flat 1.4162–1.4164 cap, compressing.
Mid-London, price is testing the 1.4162–1.4164 Asian high cap for a third time. Dips held at the 1.4149 London low and a 1.4154 higher low, with RSI(14) near 62. The sixth-day USD bid on October Fed-hike pricing keeps the pair against the range top, with the 1.4190 res zone flagged in CAD commentary above.
Support: 1.4154, 1.4149, 1.4138
Resistance: 1.4164, 1.4190
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4164 Asian high breaks the Monday range and opens the path to the 1.4190 res zone
Loss of the 1.4154 higher low breaks the higher-lows line and returns focus to the 1.4149 London low
Break below the 1.4149 London low puts the 1.4138 Asia low back in play
Fed's Bowman (12:15 UTC) and Cook (17:15 UTC) today could materially shift this read via October hike pricing
CA GDP Tue 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) is the next CAD-specific risk
10:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pressing range top · RSI 61 · price 1.41609
Asian range 1.4148–1.4164 intact, London higher low.
Monday's Asia session set a 1.4148–1.4164 range. London open stalled at 1.4162 and dipped to the range low at 1.4149, then recovered as the dollar stayed firm on October Fed hike pricing. Price is back testing the Asian high, with the Friday high at 1.4154 holding as a floor. RSI(14) sits near 61, not stretched.
Support: 1.4154, 1.4148
Resistance: 1.4164, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4164 asian high breaks the Asian range and puts the 1.4200 round number in view
Loss of the 1.4154 friday high and the 1.4148 range low turns the London retest into a failed range top
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
09:46 UTC
Sideways after Asia push higher, London capped · RSI 53 · price 1.41549
Range 1.4149–1.4164, lower highs in London, dip bought.
Monday's small gap below the 1.4141 friday close filled in early Asia. The six-day USD run on Fed-hike pricing then carried price to the 1.4164 asian high. London has stalled twice at the 1.4161–1.4162 london high with lower highs, while the dip to the 1.4149 london low held near the 50% fib retrace, leaving price pivoting on the 1.4154 friday high at ema20 with ATR around 4.4 pips.
Support: 1.41539, 1.41487, 1.41411
Resistance: 1.41619, 1.41639
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4164 asian high breaks the lower-highs line and the range top
Failure to hold the 1.4149 london low (50% fib) exposes the 1.4141 friday close
Sustained trade back below the 1.4154 friday high keeps the range read intact
Fed's Bowman (12:15 UTC) and Cook (17:15 UTC) could shift USD pricing during NY hours
CA GDP Tue 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) is the next CAD-specific catalyst
09:31 UTC
Sideways after Asian rally, momentum neutral · RSI 53 · price 1.41559
Range 1.4149–1.4164 mid-London, higher low held.
Asia lifted USD/CAD off a small weekend gap at 1.41348 to the 1.41639 asian high, extending the Fed-hike and rate-gap theme. London stalled with a rejection at the 1.41619 london high, and the dip found demand at the 1.41487 london low, near the 50% of the asian rally fib. Mid-London, price is ranging above the 1.41539 friday high, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 1.41539, 1.41487
Resistance: 1.41619, 1.41639
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.41639 asian high breaks the range top
Failure to hold the 1.41487 london low puts the 61.8% of the asian rally fib at 1.4146 in play
Loss of the 1.41539 friday high returns price to the lower half of the range
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read; CA GDP Tue 12:30 UTC is next CAD risk
09:16 UTC
Sideways after Asian rally, flat above Friday high · RSI 54 · price 1.41562
1.4148–1.4164 range; lower highs Asia to London, higher low at 1.4149.
The Asian rally from the 1.4138 asian base peaked at the 1.4164 asian high. London's push stalled at the 1.4162 london high, leaving lower highs, and the dip that followed held the 61.8% retrace near the 1.4149 london low. Price sits just above the 1.4154 friday high, with the six-session USD bid on the Fed-BoC rate gap intact but momentum neutral (RSI 54).
Support: 1.4154, 1.4149, 1.4138
Resistance: 1.4162, 1.4164, 1.4190
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4164 asian high breaks the range top and opens the 1.4190 resistance
Failure to hold the 1.4149 london low breaks the range and exposes the 1.4138 asian base
Slipping back below the 1.4154 friday high puts price back inside Friday's range
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read
09:03 UTC
Flat-to-firm, momentum stalling below Asian high · RSI 55 · price 1.41562
Compression: lower highs from 1.4164, higher lows from 1.4135.
The Asia rally ran from the 1.4135 Monday open to a 1.4164 Asian high, and the pullback held near its 50% level at 1.4148. London's first hour was rejected at 1.4162 and dropped back to the 1.4148 session low, leaving lower highs over higher lows just above Friday's high at 1.4154. The six-session USD bid on Fed-BoC rate-gap pricing is intact, but it is not extending.
Support: 1.41539, 1.41475, 1.41348
Resistance: 1.41639, 1.4190
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4164 Asian high breaks the lower-highs line and opens 1.4190 resistance
Failure to hold 1.4148 session low undoes the Asia rally structure and exposes the 1.4135 monday open
Loss of friday high 1.4154 as support shifts the read to range-bound inside the Asian range
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC could break the compression
Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC is next CAD-side risk
08:46 UTC
Sideways in early London, holding above Friday high · RSI 58 · price 1.41561
Monday range 1.4148–1.4164; London capped below Asian high, dip held at Asian low.
USDCAD opened the week at 1.4135, just below Friday's close, and pushed above the Friday high during Asia on the widening Fed-BoC rate gap. The Asian high of 1.4164 still caps. London open ran into supply at the 1.4162 London high twice, and the 08:00 UTC dip to 1.4149 held just above the Asian low. Price is back mid-range at 1.4156 with ATR near 4 pips.
Support: 1.41539, 1.41478, 1.41348
Resistance: 1.41619, 1.41639
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4164 Asian high breaks the Monday range and opens the way to the 1.4190 resistance flagged in the digest
Failure to hold the 1.4148 Asian low turns the range lower, with the weekly open at 1.4135 next
Loss of the 1.4154 Friday high as a floor would leave price mid-range with no support nearby
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
08:31 UTC
Intraday up from Monday open, stalling below Asian high · RSI 59 · price 1.41557
1.4148–1.4164 range; London printed a lower high under the Asian high.
Asia lifted the pair from 1.4135 to the 1.4164 Asian high as the widening Fed–BoC rate gap kept USD firm. The London open stalled at a 1.4162 London high, then flushed to 1.4149 near the session low, and that dip was bought straight back. Price now sits mid-range just above Friday's 1.4154 prior high (Friday low 1.4133 marks the week's floor), with RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 1.41539, 1.41475, 1.41329
Resistance: 1.41619, 1.41639
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4164 Asian high breaks the range top and extends the six-session run
Loss of the 1.4148 session low turns the London lower high into a lower-low sequence toward the 1.4133 friday low
Holding above the 1.4154 prior high keeps price in the upper half of the range
No scheduled data in the next 8h; Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled CAD catalyst
08:16 UTC
Intraday up from Asia lows, stalling at London open · RSI 54 · price 1.41523
Lower high under the Asian high, price back below Friday high.
London opened with a push to the 1.41619 London high, short of the 1.41639 Asian high, and the rejection took price back below the Friday high at 1.41539. It now sits near the 61.8% retrace of the 1.41475–1.41619 leg, with the 1.4150 round number and the 1.41475 swing low beneath. The six-session USD/CAD advance on Fed-BoC rate-gap pricing kept the Asian dips shallow.
Support: 1.4150, 1.41475
Resistance: 1.41539, 1.41619, 1.41639
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.41475 swing low breaks the Asian higher-low sequence
Reclaim of the Friday high at 1.41539 and a close above the 1.41639 Asian high would negate the lower-high read
Failure to hold the 1.4150 round number exposes the Monday open area near 1.4135
Fedspeak headlines into NY hours and Canada GDP on Tue 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
08:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalling, lower high in London · RSI 54 · price 1.41523
Inside Asian range 1.4148–1.4164, lower high printed at 1.4162.
USDCAD ran from the 1.4138 open low to a 1.4164 Asian high on firm USD and Fed-hike bets after weekend Iran headlines. The Asian low at 1.4148 held near the 61.8% retracement of that move. The first hour of London stalled at 1.4162 (london high), a lower high, and the 07:45 bar slipped back under the 1.4154 friday high to test the 50% fib and the 1.4151 higher low.
Support: 1.4151, 1.41475, 1.41381
Resistance: 1.41539, 1.41619, 1.41639
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4151 higher low / 50% fib exposes the 1.4148 asian low; losing that turns structure to lower-lows toward the 1.4138 open low
M15 close back above the 1.4154 friday high, then through the 1.4162 london high and the 1.4164 asian high, breaks the lower-highs line and the Asian range
No scheduled data today; Fedspeak and oil/Iran headlines are the intraday swing risk, with Canada GDP due Tue 12:30 UTC
07:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below asian high · RSI 63 · price 1.41571
Higher lows since the Asian pullback; London open capped under the Asian high.
USDCAD rallied off the Sunday open to an Asian high at 1.4164, pulled back to an Asian low of 1.4148, then printed a higher low at 1.4151. The London open pushed to a London high of 1.4162 but met rejection just under the Asian high, and RSI(14) has cooled to about 63. The six-session CAD slide on the widening Fed-BoC rate gap remains the backdrop.
Support: 1.41511, 1.41475, 1.41329
Resistance: 1.41619, 1.41639, 1.4190
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4164 asian high opens the path toward 1.4190 cited resistance
A break below the 1.4151 higher low and the 1.4148 asian low would end the higher-low line and expose the 1.4133 friday low
Oil and US-Iran Hormuz headlines during London hours could jolt CAD against the prevailing drift
07:31 UTC
Uptrend, higher low in place · RSI 63 · price 1.41585
HL at 1.4148 after Asia peak, London retesting Asian high.
USD/CAD extended its six-session climb in Asia on the widening Fed-BoC rate gap. It cleared the Friday high at 1.4154 and peaked at the 1.4164 Asian high, then pulled back to a 1.4148 swing low between the 50% and 61.8% of the Asia rally fib. London open lifted price back to 1.4162, just under the Asian high, with RSI(14) near 63 and rising support intact.
Support: 1.4154, 1.41475, 1.41329
Resistance: 1.41639, 1.4190
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4164 Asian high opens the 1.4190 cited resistance (cited res)
Loss of the 1.4154 Friday high puts price back inside Friday's range
Break of the 1.4148 swing low and rising support ends the higher-low chain, exposing the 1.4133 Friday low
Oil and Iran/Hormuz headlines are the main intraday swing factor ahead of Tuesday's CA GDP and JOLTS
07:16 UTC
Uptrend, pressing Asian high · RSI 65 · price 1.41593
Higher low at 1.4151 after Asian pullback held 1.4148.
Monday's move above Friday high at 1.4154 ran to the Asian high at 1.4164. The pullback held the asian low at 1.4148, inside the 50–61.8% fib of the Monday rally, and a higher low at 1.4151 has price back near 1.4159 at the London open. The sixth-day grind fits the widening Fed-BoC rate-gap story, with oil offering CAD no offset.
Support: 1.4154, 1.4151, 1.41475
Resistance: 1.41639
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4164 asian high extends the higher-high chain
Loss of the 1.4151 higher low and rising support puts the 1.4148 asian low back in play
Close back below the 1.4154 friday high turns the breakout into a false break
Oil and Iran/Hormuz headlines during London hours could jolt CAD and shift this read
07:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher low in place · RSI 64 · price 1.41593
Higher low at 1.4148 overnight, price pressing back toward the 1.4164 Asian high at London open.
USDCAD is back near the 1.4164 Asian high at London open. The overnight dip retraced just over half the Asian rally and held a higher swing low at 1.4148 on the rising trendline, with the weekend oil jump and the widening Fed-BoC gap keeping CAD heavy. RSI(14) sits near 64, firm but not stretched, and ATR is only about 3 pips, so the ranges are tight.
Support: 1.4154, 1.41475, 1.4133
Resistance: 1.41639, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4164 asian high extends the sequence and opens the 1.4200 psych level
Slip back below the 1.4154 friday high puts the 1.4148 swing low back in focus
Loss of the 1.4148 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low structure, exposing the 1.4133 friday low
Iran/Hormuz oil headlines during London hours could materially shift this read
06:46 UTC
Asia rally stalling, pulled back and compressing · RSI 54 · price 1.41529
Lower highs from 1.4164 Asia high, holding above 1.4148 swing low.
Asia session ran from the 1.4135 Monday open to a 1.4164 Asia high as Fed-hike pricing and firmer oil kept CAD heavy. The pair then pulled back to a 1.4148 swing low inside the 50–61.8% fib zone, and is now compressing beneath a 1.4156 lower high into London open with RSI(14) neutral.
Support: 1.41475, 1.41348
Resistance: 1.4156, 1.41639
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4156 lower high reopens the 1.4164 Asia high
Failure to hold the 1.4148 swing low exposes the 1.4135 Monday open
London open break of the 1.4148–1.4156 compression likely sets the session direction
Oil / Iran-Hormuz headlines can move CAD outside the calendar
06:31 UTC
Sideways after Asia rally, lower highs forming · RSI 49 · price 1.4152
Tight 1.4148–1.4160 consolidation below the Asia high, pullback holding the 50–61.8% zone.
USD/CAD gapped lower at the gap open near 1.4135, then rallied to the 1.4164 Asia high as the widening Fed-BoC rate gap kept CAD heavy. Since then the Asia session has compressed between the 1.4148 session low and a 1.4156 lower high. That session low sits in the 50–61.8% zone of the Asia rally fib. RSI(14) is flat near 49 and ATR is under 3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.4148, 1.4138, 1.4133
Resistance: 1.4156, 1.4164
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4164 asia high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4148 session low exposes the 1.4138 gap open and the 1.4133 friday low
Rejection again at the 1.4156 lower high keeps the consolidation read intact into London
Canada GDP (Tue 12:30 UTC) and Fedspeak are the next scheduled catalysts; none fall in the next few hours
06:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pullback held · RSI 56 · price 1.41547
Higher low at 1.4148 inside Asian range 1.4135–1.4164.
Monday Asia gapped down to a 1.4135 gap low, filled it and ran to a 1.4164 Asian high, extending the six-day USD/CAD advance on the widening Fed-BoC rate gap. The pullback found a swing low at 1.4148, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the Asian leg, and price is back at the 1.4156 recent high into London open.
Support: 1.41475, 1.41411, 1.41348
Resistance: 1.4156, 1.41639
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4164 Asian high breaks the session range to the upside
Failure to hold the 1.4148 swing low exposes the 1.4141 fri close and the 1.4135 gap low
Rejection at the 1.4156 recent high keeps the Asian range intact into London open
Oil/Iran headlines and Tuesday Fedspeak remain the main drivers for USD tone
05:46 UTC
Asia rally faded, now flat and compressing · RSI 50 · price 1.41512
Monday Asia opened on a small gap open at 1.4135, below the 1.4141 Friday close, then rallied to a 1.4164 session high as the Fed-BoC rate gap kept CAD heavy. The pullback stalled at the 1.4148 swing low, between the 50% and 61.8% retrace. Price is now coiling around 1.4151 into London open, capped below Friday's 1.4154 prior high, with ATR compressed near 2.5 pips.
Support: 1.41475, 1.41411, 1.41348
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.41639
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4154 prior high reopens the 1.4164 session high
Break of the 1.4148 swing low exposes the 1.4141 fri close and the 1.4135 gap open
London open could expand the compressed range; Canada GDP and Fed speakers on Tue are the next scheduled catalysts
05:31 UTC
Range after Asia rally faded · RSI 44 · price 1.41501
Lower highs off 1.41639, compressing inside 1.4148–1.4154.
The small weekend gap lower was bought through Asia from the 1.41348 Asia low to 1.41639 as the Fed-BoC rate gap kept CAD heavy. Price met rejection at the Asia high and has since printed lower highs, compressing between the 1.41475 range low and the 1.41541 range top around the 50% fib. Late Asia session, RSI(14) 44, ATR near 2.6 pips.
Support: 1.41475, 1.41348
Resistance: 1.41541, 1.41639
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.41541 range top breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 1.41639 Asia high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.41475 range low exposes the 61.8% fib near 1.4146 and then the 1.41348 Asia low
London open in under 2h is the likely catalyst for a break of the compressed range
Canada GDP (Tue 12:30 UTC) and US JOLTS (Tue 14:00 UTC) sit beyond this window but frame the rate-gap driver
False break above Friday high, lower highs back to 50% of Asia leg.
Monday Asia gapped down to an asian low of 1.4135, then extended CAD's rate-gap weakness to an asian high of 1.4164 above the 1.4154 friday high. The move failed to hold and has drifted in lower highs back to the 50% of the Asia leg near 1.4150, with RSI(14) at 42 and ATR near 3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.4148, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.4164
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.4148 pullback low opens the 61.8% of the Asia leg and the 1.4135 asian low
Recovery back above the 1.4154 friday high negates the false break and brings the 1.4164 asian high back into range
London open in about 2h typically expands the tight Asian range; Iran/oil headlines are the live intraday risk
05:02 UTC
Pullback after failed Asia push, momentum soft · RSI 41 · price 1.41496
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.4164 Asian high, mid-range.
Monday Asia lifted USDCAD through Friday's high at 1.4154 to a 1.4164 Asian high as the Fed-BoC rate gap kept CAD heavy. That move failed to hold. Price has since slipped back below Friday's high in a chain of lower highs and now sits at the 50% retracement near 1.4149, just above the 1.4148 pullback low, with ATR(14) about 2.6 pips into late Asia.
Support: 1.41475, 1.4141, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.41639
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4154 friday high and the falling trendline negates the false break
Failure to hold the 1.4148 pullback low exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.4146, then the friday close at 1.4141
Loss of 1.4135 (asian low, also Friday's lows) breaks the session structure entirely
London open volatility and Iran/Hormuz oil headlines could expand the range beyond the current ATR
04:46 UTC
Pullback after Asia rally, lower highs · RSI 39 · price 1.41491
Lower highs from the 1.4164 session high, holding the 50% retrace.
Sunday's open gapped below Friday's 1.4141 close, then Asia ran to a 1.4164 session high as the widening Fed-BoC rate gap kept CAD heavy. Price has since faded on lower highs back below Friday's high at 1.4154 and now sits on the 50% retrace near the 1.4148 session low, RSI(14) near 39, with London open about 2.5h away.
Support: 1.4148, 1.4141, 1.4133
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.4164
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.4148 session low extends the fade toward the 1.4141 friday close gap and the 1.4133 friday low
A recovery above the 1.4154 friday high and the lower-high trendline reopens the 1.4164 session high
Iran/Hormuz oil headlines into London open could shift this read; Canada GDP follows Tue 12:30 UTC
04:31 UTC
Intraday pullback after failed Asia push higher · RSI 45 · price 1.41491
Lower highs since 1.4164 session high; price back below Friday high.
Asia lifted USD/CAD from the 1.4135 session low, filling the small weekend gap, and briefly through Friday's 1.4154 high to a 1.4164 session high as the Fed-BoC rate gap kept CAD heavy. That break failed, and a lower-highs trendline has pulled price back to the 50% fib of the Asian range near 1.4149. Ranges are compressing (ATR ~3 pips) and RSI(14) sits neutral near 45.
Support: 1.4149, 1.4142, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.4164
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4154 friday high negates the false break read and puts the 1.4164 session high back in focus
Failure to hold the 1.4149 fib 50% exposes the 1.4142 gap fill, then the 1.4135 session low
A break of the lower-highs trendline would end the post-high pullback structure
London open in ~2.5h typically expands the current ~3-pip ranges
Canada GDP (Tue 12:30 UTC) is the next scheduled CAD catalyst
Asia breakout above Friday high, now retesting it.
Monday Asia opened below the friday close and ran through the 1.4154 friday high to a 1.4164 asian high, extending the rate-gap-driven CAD weakness. Price was rejected there and now holds the 50% fib of the Asia rally, with the 1.4150 intraday low tested three times. RSI(14) is near 43 and ATR(14) about 3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.4150, 1.4141, 1.4133
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.4164
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4150 intraday low turns the friday high breakout into a false break and exposes the 1.4141 friday close
Loss of 1.4141 reopens the 1.4133 friday low that capped Friday's London-NY lows
A reclaim of 1.4154 friday high and a break of 1.4164 asian high resumes the Asia rally structure
Iran/Hormuz oil headlines and Tuesday Fed speakers are the nearest drivers; Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled CAD risk
Monday Asia opened on a small gap down to 1.4135, then rallied through Friday's 1.4154 high to the 1.4164 Asia high. The move tracked the widening Fed–BoC rate gap. Price was rejected there and has slipped back under the fri high, with late Asia compressing just above the 1.4150 pullback low between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the Asia leg.
Support: 1.4150, 1.4141, 1.4133
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.4164
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4150 pullback low opens the 1.4141 fri close, then the 1.4133 fri low
Reclaim of the 1.4154 fri high and a break of the lower-highs line re-opens the 1.4164 asia high
London open in ~3h is likely to set direction out of the late-Asia compression
Canada GDP (Tue 12:30 UTC) and US PCE/NFP later this week could materially shift this read
Lower highs off 1.4164 Asia high, base near 1.4150.
The week opened with a small gap down to the 1.4135 sunday low, which filled quickly. The Fed-BoC rate-gap theme then carried an Asia run through Friday's 1.4154 high to the 1.4164 asia high. Since 00:30 UTC lower highs have pressed price back to the 50% fib near the 1.4150 session low, where demand has held three times. RSI(14) sits near 45 and price is just under EMA20.
Support: 1.4150, 1.41348
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.41639
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4150 session low breaks the Asia base and exposes the 1.4135 sunday low
Close back above the 1.4154 friday high and the asia downline reopens the 1.4164 asia high
London open in about 3.5h is the first test of the Asian range
Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC and US Fed speakers Tue are the next scheduled catalysts for the rate-gap theme
03:31 UTC
Intraday pullback after Asia push higher · RSI 43 · price 1.41499
Lower highs off 1.4164 Asia high, testing 1.4150 swing low.
Monday Asia opened near 1.4135 and ran to 1.4164, clearing the 1.4154 fri high as the widening Fed-BoC rate gap kept CAD heavy. Price has since faded along a lower-highs line to the 1.4150 swing low, which is also the 50% fib of the Asia leg. RSI(14) is near 43 and price sits just above EMA50.
Support: 1.4150, 1.4141, 1.4133
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.4164
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4150 swing low turns the fri high break into a false break and exposes the 1.4141 fri close
Reclaim of the 1.4154 fri high breaks the lower-highs trendline and re-exposes the 1.4164 asia high
Loss of the 1.4133 fri low would erase the entire Asia leg
London open could expand the tight ~3-pip ATR Asian range
HH/HL since Sunday open; tight coil retesting Friday high from below.
Asia climbed from the 1.4135 gap-down open through the Friday high at 1.4154 to an Asia high of 1.4164, with CAD still heavy on the widening Fed-BoC rate gap. The pullback low at 1.4150 held at the 50% fib of the Asia rally, and rising support from the open is intact. Price is coiling at 38.2% just under the Friday high, with RSI(14) neutral near 55 and ATR around 3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.4150, 1.4138, 1.4133
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.4164
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4154 Friday high, then the 1.4164 Asia high, extends the HH sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4150 pullback low breaks rising support and exposes the 1.4138 Asia base and 1.4133 Friday low
London open volatility could expand the tight Asia coil
Musalem (Tue 11:30 UTC) and Canada GDP (Tue 12:30 UTC) are the next scheduled catalysts
03:02 UTC
Uptrend from gap low, pausing mid-Asia · RSI 49 · price 1.41528
Breakout above Friday high, now retesting it at 38.2% of the Asia rally.
Monday Asia gapped down to 1.4135, then rallied through the Friday high at 1.4154 to a 1.4164 session high, extending the sixth-day USD bid on a widening Fed-BoC rate gap. Price has eased back to retest the Friday high. Demand held at the 1.4150 pullback low, the 50% retrace of the gap-low rally. RSI(14) is neutral near 49 and ATR(14) about 3.4 pips, with the Asian range compressing ahead of London open.
Support: 1.4150, 1.4141, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.4164
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4150 pullback low turns the Friday-high breakout into a false break and exposes the 1.4141 fri close, then the 1.4135 gap open
Clearance of the 1.4164 session high resumes the gap-low rally structure
London open in roughly 4h typically resets the Asian range
Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC and US ADP/PCE Wed are the next scheduled catalysts for the rate-gap theme
False break above Friday high, holding the 50% fib.
Monday Asia opened on a small gap lower at the 1.4135 monday low and rallied to a 1.4164 session high, clearing the 1.4154 friday high before slipping back beneath it. The pullback low at 1.4150 sits on the 50% of the Monday rally fib, with RSI(14) flat near 50. CAD remains soft on the widening Fed-BoC rate gap.
Support: 1.4150, 1.41348, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.41639
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4150 pullback low exposes the 1.4135 monday low, then the 1.4130 july high pivot
M15 close back above the 1.4154 friday high negates the false break read and brings the 1.4164 session high back into play
London open in roughly 4h typically expands range beyond the current ~3.5-pip ATR
Canada GDP and US JOLTS on Tuesday could shift the rate-gap driver behind the CAD weakness
Asia false break above Friday high, lower highs since.
Monday's Asia session opened with a gap lower to 1.4135, then rallied through Friday's high at 1.4154 to a 1.4164 session high before fading. Lower highs since, with price now probing the 1.4150 pullback low between the 38.2% and 50% of the Asia rally fib as the USD pauses after last week's rally.
Support: 1.4150, 1.4141, 1.4134
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.4164
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4150 pullback low opens the 1.4141 Friday close, then the 1.4134 Friday low near the gap open
Recovery back above the 1.4154 Friday high reopens the 1.4164 session high; clearing it negates the false break read
London open and BoC Governor Macklem's scheduled Monday speech could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Intraday up, pulling back from session high · RSI 47 · price 1.4151
Asian high above friday high rejected; retest of breakout zone.
Asia session opened with a small gap below Friday's close. It then built an asian base at 1.4138 and rallied through the 1.4154 friday high to a 1.4164 asian high, extending two-month highs as CAD stays heavy on Fed-BoC divergence. The asian high was rejected, and price has faded back to the 1.4150 psych level, near 44% of the asian rally fib, with RSI(14) neutral at 47.
Support: 1.4150, 1.4138, 1.4133
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.4164
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4154 friday high puts the 1.4164 asian high back in play
Failure to hold 1.4150 psych and the 50% asian rally fib (1.4149) exposes the 1.4138 asian base, then the 1.4133 friday low
London open in ~5h is likely to set direction out of the Asian range
BoC Gov. Macklem speech today could shift the CAD read
02:02 UTC
Intraday up leg, fading from session high · RSI 47 · price 1.4151
False break above friday high, pullback to 38.2% of Asian leg.
Monday's Asia session opened with a small gap lower to the 1.4135 asian low, then ran through the 1.4154 friday high to a 1.4164 session high. Supply there turned it back below 1.4154, and price now sits at the 1.4151 pullback low near the 38.2% retrace. RSI(14) is neutral at 47 and EMA20 is flat overhead, with CAD still soft near two-month highs.
Support: 1.4151, 1.41494, 1.41348
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.41639
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4154 friday high reopens the 1.4164 session high
Failure to hold the 1.4151 pullback low and fib 50% at 1.4149 turns the upside break into a confirmed false break, exposing the 1.4135 asian low
London open in ~5h is likely to expand the thin Asian range (ATR ~3 pips)
BoC Macklem speech today could shift CAD and the read
01:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 60 · price 1.41538
Asia break above Friday high, now retesting it.
Monday opened about 6 pips below Friday's 1.4141 close. Asia then climbed from the 1.4139 asian base through the 1.4154 friday high to a 1.4164 session high, in line with firm USD and heavy CAD. Price has eased back to retest the friday high, with the pullback low at 1.4151 holding near the 38.2% retrace of the Asia rally. RSI(14) is cooling to around 60.
Support: 1.4151, 1.4139, 1.4133
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.4164
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4151 pullback low would turn the Friday-high break into a false break and expose the 1.4139 asian base
Reclaim of 1.4160 and the 1.4164 session high would extend the higher-high chain
Loss of 1.4139 reopens the 1.4133 friday low
Thin Asia liquidity; BoC Macklem speech Monday could shift the CAD read
01:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing on a retest · RSI 64 · price 1.4154
Asia break above the Friday high, now back retesting 1.4154.
Thin Asia open gapped down to 1.4135 near the friday low. Price filled the gap and broke the 1.4154 friday high, which had capped three times on Friday, to print a session high at 1.4164. The pair has since slipped back to retest 1.4154, near the 38.2% of the open rally, with RSI(14) near 64. CAD stays soft on the Fed-BoC gap and Friday's oil slide, keeping the pair at two-month highs.
Support: 1.4154, 1.4141, 1.4133
Resistance: 1.4164, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.4151 turns the Friday high break into a false break
Loss of the 1.4141 friday close puts price back inside Friday's range, with the 1.4133 friday low next
Close above the 1.4164 session high resumes the breakout, with the 1.4200 round number the next reference
BoC Macklem speech Monday and Iran/oil headlines could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Short-term uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 69 · price 1.41562
Asia breakout above Friday's range, retesting its top.
The Monday Asia session opened just below Friday's close. It built an Asia base at 1.4138, then pushed through the 1.4133–1.4154 Friday range to a session high of 1.4164. The pullback is now retesting the friday high at 1.4154, which lines up with the 38.2% of the Asia leg fib, and RSI(14) is cooling near 69 in thin open liquidity as CAD stays soft on the oil and Fed backdrop.
Support: 1.4154, 1.4138, 1.4133
Resistance: 1.4164, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.4154 friday high turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the 1.4138 asia base
Clearance of the 1.4164 session high puts the 1.4200 round number in view
Loss of the 1.4133 friday low would fully unwind the Asia leg
Iran/Hormuz and oil headlines into London open could shift the read; Canada GDP due Tue 12:30 UTC
Asia HH/HL chain, breakout above Friday high now retesting.
The Asia session rallied from the 1.4135 open low through the 1.4154 Friday high and printed 1.4164, a new window high in line with the CAD-heavy digest. The latest bar is retesting the Friday high. The Asia rally's HH/HL chain holds above the 1.4151 swing low, and RSI(14) is cooling to around 60 after the spike.
Support: 1.4154, 1.4151, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.4164, 1.4200
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.4151 swing low breaks the Asia rally chain and turns the Friday high breakout into a false break
A close above the 1.4164 session high opens the path to the 1.4200 round number
A return below the 1.4135 open low erases the whole Asia rally
BoC Macklem's speech Monday and Canada GDP on Tue 12:30 UTC could shift the CAD tone
00:46 UTC
Uptrend, fresh highs in thin Asia trade · RSI 72 · price 1.41584
HH/HL chain from the Sunday open, Friday high broken.
Asia session reopened with a small gap lower and built an asia base near 1.4138, then climbed in a steady HH/HL chain along rising support. Price cleared the Friday high at 1.4154 and set a session high at 1.4159, fresh two-month highs as Fed-BoC divergence keeps CAD heavy. RSI(14) sits near 72 with ATR(14) around 3.4 pips, a sign of thin early-Asia ranges.
Support: 1.4154, 1.4151, 1.4138
Resistance: 1.4159, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4154 friday high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.4151 swing low and the rising support line breaks the Asia HH/HL chain; below that, the asia base at 1.4138 is the next reference
Session high at 1.4159 is capping for now; the 1.4200 round number is the next reference above
Oil and Iran/Hormuz headlines in thin Asia flow could quickly shift this read
00:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, fresh highs in thin Asia trade · RSI 65 · price 1.41568
HH/HL chain from Sunday open, now above Friday's range high.
The Asia session extended the Sunday rally from 1.4135 through Friday's 1.4154 prior high. It printed a session high at 1.4157 on thin early-week liquidity, with RSI(14) around 65. The pair is pressing its two-month highs on Fed-BoC divergence. The 1.4154 prior high and the 1.4151 swing low are the nearest retest area, and the Friday low at 1.4133 sits below.
Support: 1.4154, 1.4151, 1.4133
Resistance: 1.41568, 1.4160
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4154 prior high turns the breakout into a false break inside Friday's range
Loss of the 1.4151 swing low breaks the HL chain off the Sunday rally
Round number 1.4160 above the session high: area to watch for rejection or extension once London liquidity arrives
Break of the 1.4133 Friday low reverses the whole Sunday rally
Canada GDP and US JOLTS on Tue could materially shift this read
00:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the weekly open · RSI 68 · price 1.41558
Gap-down open filled, marginal break above Friday range top.
The weekly open gapped down to 1.4135, below Friday's 1.4141 close. The gap filled within the first hour, and early Asia has pushed to a 1.4156 session high, edging past Friday's 1.4154 prior high. RSI(14) sits near 68 on thin, low-ATR tape, with the firm-USD, soft-CAD backdrop from last week intact.
Support: 1.4154, 1.4151, 1.4133
Resistance: 1.4156, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Holding above the 1.4154 prior high keeps the range break intact; a slip under the 1.4151 swing low puts price back inside Friday's range
A return to the 1.4133 friday low would erase the open rally
Acceptance above the 1.4156 session high leaves 1.4200 psych as the next round number
London open may reset the thin Asian range; BoC's Macklem is flagged Monday, and Canada GDP plus US JOLTS follow Tuesday
00:03 UTC
Uptrend, early Asia push · RSI 68 · price 1.41558
Higher lows since the Sunday open; marginal break of Friday's high.
Monday's Asia session opened with a small gap lower that bottomed at the 1.4138 asia low. Price has since pushed two pips past Friday's 1.4154 prior high to a 1.4156 session high, on thin early-session liquidity. Higher lows at 1.4138 and the 1.4151 swing low keep the rising trendline intact, with CAD still heavy on Fed-BoC divergence and softer oil.
Support: 1.4154, 1.4151, 1.4138
Resistance: 1.4156, 1.4160
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4154 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.4151 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain back toward the 1.4138 asia low
Acceptance above the 1.4160 round number extends the session high beyond Friday's range
BoC Governor Macklem speech Monday could shift the CAD read during London/NY hours