Higher lows since Thursday; flat top at 1.4200, twin lows at 1.4175.
USDCAD has climbed about 100 pips off Thursday's 1.4097 low, with Monday's London and NY sessions lifting it clear of the 1.4135 weekly open and off the 1.4149 Monday low, on the widening US-Canada yield spread. Tuesday brought the 1.4200 cap into play twice: a London high at 1.4201 and an NY retest at 1.4199 that faded after Williams' no-rush remarks. Both dips held the 1.4175 twin lows, which sit near the 23.6% fib of the week's impulse, so a potential double top remains unconfirmed. Price is pinned around EMA(20) with RSI(14) back near 51, down from the overbought readings of the rally.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4149, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4200 cap breaks the double top and opens the path to the 1.4250 5-month high
Close below the 1.4175 twin lows confirms the double top and exposes the Monday low near 1.4149, the 50% fib zone
A break of the rising trendline from Monday's low would end the higher-low sequence
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) Wednesday could materially shift this read; a soft print meets crowded CAD shorts
Weekly open at 1.4135 is the line between a pullback and a reversal of this week's gains
Higher lows since weekly open; 1.4175–1.4200 range on Tuesday.
USDCAD has ground higher from the 1.4135 weekly open, printing a clean sequence of higher lows through Monday and into Tuesday as the widening US-Canada yield gap outweighed soft US JOLTS and confidence data. Tuesday's high at 1.4201 capped two attempts, first in the London session and again during NY hours after Williams' no-rush remarks, while the tuesday low at 1.4175 (38.2% of the week-open leg) absorbed both pullbacks. Price holds just above the ema20 at 1.4186, and RSI(14) has cooled to ~55 from ~77 at the first peak.
Support: 1.4186, 1.4175, 1.4148
Resistance: 1.4201, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close above the tuesday high at 1.4201 opens the path toward the 5-month high near 1.4250
Break of the tuesday low at 1.4175 would complete a double top and break the higher-lows trendline, exposing the monday low at 1.4148
Repeated H1 closes below the ema20 at 1.4186 would signal the grind higher is losing momentum
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) on Wednesday could materially shift this read
21:05 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at 1.4200 · RSI 55 · price 1.41892
Higher lows since Monday's open, capped by twin highs at 1.4200.
USD/CAD has ground higher from Monday's 1.4135 weekly open along a rising line of higher lows, as the widening US-Canada yield gap outweighed soft US JOLTS and confidence data. Tuesday's advance was rejected at 1.4200 twice, first during London and again in the NY session. RSI(14) peaked near 77 on the first test but only about 64 on the second, and the late-NY slide after Williams' no-rush remarks found demand at the 1.4175 tuesday low, the 38.2% retracement of the Mon-Tue impulse. Price has since reclaimed EMA(20) near 1.4186.
Support: 1.4186, 1.4175, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4250
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.4200 twin highs opens the path toward the 1.4250 5-month high
A break of the 1.4175 tuesday low and the higher-lows trendline would complete a double top, exposing the friday high near 1.4154
Failure to hold EMA(20) at 1.4186 keeps price pinned inside the 1.4175–1.4200 band
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE/GDP (12:30 UTC) on Wed could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Thursday, twin highs capping at 1.4200.
USD/CAD has stepped up in higher lows from Thursday's 1.4087 base. Thursday's NY-session rally and a steady Monday grind from the 1.4135 weekly open carried price into the 1.4201 week high, where supply capped both the London high and the late-NY retest on Tuesday. Price now sits on EMA(20) with RSI(14) back near 52 after the late-NY drop, and the 1.4175 tuesday low aligns with the 23.6% fib and the rising trendline; hawkish Fed repricing and 10Y yields above 5.2% kept the pair bid despite the JOLTS miss.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4157, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.4201, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4175 tuesday low breaks the rising trendline and completes a double-top shape under 1.4200, exposing the fib 38.2 at 1.4157
H1 close above the 1.4201 week high reopens the path to the 1.4250 5-month high
Failure to hold the 1.4135 weekly open would erase this week's advance and break the higher-low sequence
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Core PCE/GDP (12:30 UTC) on Wednesday could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Monday open, trendline broken, double top forming.
USD/CAD climbed from 1.4135 at Monday's open to a 1.4201 week high in Tuesday's London session. It rode a rising trendline of higher lows as US yields above 5.2% and Fed-hike pricing outweighed soft JOLTS and confidence data. A second push stalled at 1.4199 during NY hours, and a 20-pip drop ahead of Waller broke the trendline and put price below EMA(20) at 1.4184. That leaves a potential double top whose 1.4175 neckline lines up with the 38.2% fib of the weekly swing, with RSI(14) easing to the mid-40s.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4166, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4184, 1.4201, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4175 neckline confirms the double top and opens the 50% fib near the tuesday low at 1.4166
Failure to hold 1.4166 exposes last week's friday high around 1.4154 and marks a lower-low
Reclaim of ema20 at 1.4184 and a close above the 1.4201 week high would restore the higher-lows sequence toward the five-mo high at 1.4250
Waller at 19:00 UTC today and Wednesday's ADP and Core PCE could materially shift this read
Higher lows since weekly open, capped at week high.
USDCAD has printed a clean sequence of higher lows since the weekly open at 1.4135. Monday's steady climb extended in Tuesday's London session to a week high at 1.4201, and the pullback low at 1.4175 retested Monday's highs near the 23.6% of the weekly impulse. NY hours recovered the dip despite the JOLTS miss as US yields pressed 2004 highs, leaving price above EMA(20) near 1.4189 with RSI(14) cooling to ~58, though supply has capped 1.4200 twice today.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4155, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.4201, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4201 week high opens the path toward the 1.4250 5-month high
Failure to hold the 1.4175 pullback low breaks the higher lows trendline and exposes the 1.4155 monday low
A move back through the 1.4135 weekly open would erase the week's gains and invalidate the uptrend read
Fed's Williams (18:00 UTC) and Waller (19:00 UTC) tonight, then ADP and core PCE tomorrow 12:15–12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Stepwise higher lows since Thursday, retesting week high.
The week's dominant impulse began in Thursday's London session from 1.4097. Since Monday's 1.4135 open, every session has printed a higher low, with pullbacks holding near the ema20, as 5.2%+ US yields and Fed-hike pricing kept USD bid. Today's London push set the 1.4201 week high, then faded to the 1.4175 tuesday low around the flat Canada GDP print. NY hours recovered back into the high, with RSI(14) near 61 and not stretched.
Support: 1.4188, 1.4175, 1.4148
Resistance: 1.4201, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4201 week high opens the path toward the 1.4250 5-month high
Break of the 1.4175 tuesday low and the higher-lows trendline would end the higher-low sequence and expose the 1.4148 monday low, near the 50% retrace of the impulse
Fed's Williams (18:00 UTC) and Waller (19:00 UTC) today, plus Wednesday's ADP and Core PCE, could materially shift this read
Quarter-end flows on Sep 30 may distort price action around the week high
Higher highs and higher lows since Thursday; EMA20 holding pullbacks.
USD/CAD has stepped higher every session since Thursday's NY-hours breakout from 1.4100. It climbed off the 1.4135 weekly open to a 1.4201 week high in London on Tuesday as Fed-BoC rate divergence and wider spreads kept the dollar bid. The first test of 1.4200 drew a rejection, but the midday pullback held the 1.4175 pullback low near EMA(20) and the higher-low trendline. Price recovered despite soft JOLTS and consumer confidence, while RSI(14) cooled to about 60 from its highs.
Support: 1.4185, 1.4175, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.4201, 1.4250
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 1.4175 pullback low and the higher-low trendline would break this week's rising-lows sequence
Acceptance above the 1.4201 week high and the 1.4200 round number opens the path toward the 1.4250 5-month high
A deeper correction would bring the 38.2% retracement of the Thu-Tue rally near 1.4157, then the 1.4135 weekly open, into view
Fed speakers Williams (18:00Z) and Waller (19:00Z) today, then Wednesday's ADP (12:15Z) and GDP/PCE (12:30Z) could materially shift this read
15:02 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows intact since weekly open · RSI 60 · price 1.41924
Stair-step higher lows; pullback from 1.4201 held 38.2% fib.
USDCAD has printed a clean higher-low sequence from the 1.4135 weekly open, carried by firm USD on 10Y yields near 5.25% and priced Fed hikes. Tuesday's London push tagged a 1.4201 week high before a pullback into the flat Canadian GDP print, which held the 38.2% fib of the week's leg at 1.4175. NY hours have since reclaimed the ema20 near 1.4186, with RSI(14) back around 60 rather than stretched.
Support: 1.4186, 1.4175, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.4201, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4201 week high opens the path toward the 1.4250 5-mth high
Loss of the 38.2% fib at 1.4175 and the higher-low trendline would break this week's sequence
Price back below the ema20 near 1.4186 would signal the pullback is extending
Fed speakers from 15:00 UTC today (Williams 18:00, Waller 19:00) could shift yields and this read
ADP 12:15 UTC and PCE/GDP 12:30 UTC Wednesday are the next major catalysts
A deeper unwind toward the 1.4135 weekly open would mark a full retrace of the week's leg
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday; first pullback from 1.4201 held the 38.2% fib.
USD/CAD has printed higher lows since Monday's 1.4135 weekly open. The Asia and London sessions carried the leg to a 1.4201 week high this morning as elevated US yields and Fed-hike pricing kept the dollar bid. Supply at the 1.4200 round number knocked price back to a 1.4175 pullback low, the 38.2% fib of the week impulse and Monday's prior high, where the rising-lows trendline caught the dip around the in-line Canada GDP print. Price is holding just above EMA(20) near 1.4182, with RSI(14) easing back to the mid-50s from this morning's peak.
Support: 1.4182, 1.41753, 1.41348
Resistance: 1.4201, 1.4250
What it said to watch
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, then Williams and Waller Fedspeak during NY hours, could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 1.4201 week high opens the path toward the 1.4250 5-month high
H1 close below the 1.4175 pullback low and rising-lows trendline turns focus to the 50% fib near 1.4168, then the 1.4135 weekly open
Repeated closes back under EMA(20) near 1.4182 would signal the higher-low sequence losing momentum
US ADP Wednesday 12:15 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst for the pair
13:04 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling after rejection at 1.4200 · RSI 54 · price 1.41815
Higher lows since weekly open; pullback from week high holding 38.2% fib.
USDCAD has printed higher lows since Monday's weekly open at 1.4135. Widening US-Canada yield spreads and hawkish Fed repricing carried the seventh-day advance to a week high at 1.4201 during London hours today. That level met rejection. The drop into the Canada GDP window stalled at the day low 1.4175, the 38.2% fib of the weekly leg, and price now sits just under EMA(20) with RSI(14) easing to the mid-50s.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4155, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.4184, 1.4201, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H1 close below the day low 1.4175 breaks the week higher-lows line and exposes the monday low at 1.4155
Loss of 1.4155 puts the weekly open at 1.4135 back in focus
Reclaim of ema20 and a close above the week high 1.4201 opens the path to the 5m high near 1.4250
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 GMT, then Fedspeak through Waller, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the weekly open; rejection at the week high tested the rising trendline.
USD/CAD has printed higher lows along a rising trendline since Monday's 1.4135 weekly open, carried through London and NY hours by hawkish-Fed repricing and a wider US-Canada yield spread. London's push to a 1.4201 week high was rejected just above the 1.4200 handle. The 11:00 UTC bar closed below the trendline and now sits on EMA(20) near 1.4182, with RSI(14) cooling to the low 50s. The Monday high at 1.4177 lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the Monday-Tuesday leg, the first shelf below.
Support: 1.4177, 1.4166, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.4182, 1.4201, 1.4250
What it said to watch
CA July GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.0%) lands on a stretched, short-heavy CAD setup and could materially shift this read
Hourly close below the 1.4166 tuesday low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.4135 weekly open
Close back above the 1.4201 week high reopens the path toward the 1.4250 5-month high
US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and Wednesday's ADP drive the USD leg of the pair
Stair-step higher lows since Monday's open, first test of 1.4200 rejected.
USDCAD has ground higher from the weekly open at 1.4135 through Monday and into Tuesday. Each pullback has held a rising support line and the EMA(20), with the Asia low at 1.4166 and this morning's London higher low at 1.4181 marking the latest steps. The move tracks widening US-Canada yield spreads on Fed hike pricing. London's first push to the week high at 1.4201 drew a rejection back to 1.4193, and RSI(14) sits near 63 with no divergence on the highs yet.
Support: 1.4181, 1.4166, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.4201, 1.4250
What it said to watch
CA July GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.0%) could materially shift this read; a firm print against a stretched CAD short base is the main pullback risk
US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and today's Fedspeak slate feed directly into the USD leg
Hourly close below the 1.4181 higher low breaks the rising support line
Failure to hold the 1.4166 Asia low, near the 50% retracement of the week impulse, would mark the first lower low of the week
Hourly close above the 1.4201 week high opens the path toward the 1.4250 five-month high flagged in the macro digest
Higher highs and higher lows since the Monday open.
USDCAD has stepped higher every session since the 1.4135 weekly open. Each dip has held a higher-lows trendline, and pullbacks have found EMA(20). Tuesday's extension ran from late Asia into London and tagged the 1.4200 round number, clearing the Monday high at 1.4177, as hawkish Fed repricing and a 5.27% US 10Y widened the US-Canada spread. RSI(14) is pressing into overbought and ATR has compressed to about 7 pips, so this week's impulse is extended but has not yet printed a lower low.
Support: 1.4177, 1.4166, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4250
What it said to watch
CA July GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.0%) is the main risk to this read: a firm print against a short-heavy CAD setup could force a pullback into the Monday high
An H1 close above the 1.4200 round number opens the path toward the 1.4250 5-month high
A break of the higher-lows trendline and a close back below the 1.4177 Monday high would shift the read to consolidation
Failure to hold the 1.4166 day low exposes the 50–61.8% retracement of this week's impulse toward the 1.4135 weekly open
US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and the afternoon Fedspeak slate could move the USD leg during NY hours
Stair-step higher highs and higher lows above EMA20 since weekly open.
USDCAD has set higher lows every session since Sunday's weekly open at 1.4135. The pair cleared the prior wk hi at 1.4154 in Monday's Asia session and extended to a 1.4194 day high in the London session today, in line with the Fed-BoC divergence theme in the digest. Pullbacks keep finding the higher-lows trendline near 1.4183 and the monday high at 1.4177, with RSI(14) near 66 and price above a rising EMA(20), while the 1.4200 round number sits just overhead.
Support: 1.41772, 1.4154, 1.41348
Resistance: 1.41941, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada July GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read around 1.4190–1.4200
H1 close above the 1.4200 round number extends the rally beyond the day high
H1 close below the higher-lows trendline and the monday high at 1.4177 breaks the stair-step sequence
Loss of 1.4177 exposes the 38.2% retrace of the rally near 1.4151, in confluence with the prior wk hi
Waller at 19:00 UTC, the last of today's Fedspeak slate, is a further risk to the read
Stair-step higher highs and higher lows since the weekly open, holding just below 1.4200.
USDCAD has climbed from the weekly open at 1.4135. Monday's grind through London and NY set a 1.4177 high, and Asia extended the move to a 1.4193 week high on firm Fed-hike pricing and 5%+ US yields. Dips into early London found demand above the higher-lows trendline and EMA(20). Monday high and Tuesday low now form the nearest support shelf beneath the 1.4200 round number.
Support: 1.41772, 1.41656, 1.41348
Resistance: 1.41925, 1.4200, 1.4250
What it said to watch
Canada July GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%): a positive print against rebuilt CAD shorts could force a pullback through the Monday high toward the Tuesday low
US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and Fed speakers through NY hours could shift the yield-driven USD leg
H1 close above the 1.4193 week high and the 1.4200 round number opens the path toward the 5-month high near 1.4250
H1 close below the higher-lows trendline and 1.4166 Tuesday low breaks this week's stair-step; the 50% fib of the move sits near 1.4164, with the weekly open at 1.4135 below
Higher highs and higher lows since Wednesday; shallow pullback from the session high.
USDCAD has stepped higher from Wednesday's 1.4078 low. Thursday's NY session delivered the main impulse through 1.4100–1.4150, and Monday ground to fresh highs above the 1.4135 weekly open as the Fed-BoC rate gap and 2007-high US yields kept the USD bid. The Asia session printed a 1.4193 session high just shy of the 1.4200 round number before easing. Price holds above EMA(20) near 1.4177, which lines up with Monday's prior high, while RSI(14) at about 66 has cooled from overbought without divergence.
Support: 1.4177, 1.4155, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.41925, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada GDP 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%): an upside print could force a pullback toward the 1.4155 swing low
H1 close below the 1.4177 prior high and EMA(20) would break the week's higher-low rhythm
Acceptance above the 1.4200 round number clears the session high and extends the impulse
US JOLTS 14:00 UTC and afternoon Fedspeak could shift the USD leg of the read
Break of the rising line and the 1.4135 weekly open exposes the 38.2% retracement near 1.4149
Higher lows since Friday, Monday high broken in Asia.
The week's dominant leg came in Thursday's NY session, from 1.4105 to 1.4149. Friday consolidated in a 1.4133–1.4154 range, and since the weekly open at 1.4135 the pair has stepped up along a rising trendline of higher lows. Asia today broke the Monday high at 1.4177 and printed a week high of 1.4193 as a firm USD on 5%+ yields and October Fed hike bets kept CAD heavy. RSI(14) is pressing toward 70 with price above EMA(20), which sits near 1.4177. Pullbacks have held above the 23.6% fib of the 1.4078–1.4193 move at 1.4166.
Support: 1.41772, 1.41656, 1.41348
Resistance: 1.41925, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 closes back below the Monday high and EMA(20) near 1.4177 would mark the Asia breakout as a false break
A break of the rising trendline from the weekly open, near 1.4174, ends the higher-low sequence
Rejection at the week high 1.4193 and the 1.4200 round number would leave the pair capped at the digest's range top
Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%): a positive print is the main pullback risk toward the 23.6% fib at 1.4166
JOLTS and heavy Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could shift the USD leg of the read
RSI above 70 alongside a stall under 1.4200 would flag an overbought, stretched move
Higher highs and higher lows since Wednesday's 1.4078 low; pressing the week high.
The week's dominant leg came Thursday across the London-NY transition, and Monday's Asia session cleared last week's 1.4154 prior high. The NY-session retest of that level held, and the pair has climbed from the 1.4135 weekly open to a week high near 1.4190 in Tuesday's Asia session as Fed-BoC divergence kept CAD heavy. Pullbacks are shallow and are finding ema20 along a rising line of higher lows, with RSI(14) near 68 and ATR compressing to about 8 pips as price presses the 1.4190/1.4200 round number zone.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4154, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.4190, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 acceptance above the 1.4200 round number extends the run beyond the week high
H1 close below the higher lows line and ema20 near 1.4173 opens a retest of the 1.4154 prior high
Failure to hold 1.4154 exposes the weekly open at 1.4135, near the 50% rally fib
Higher highs and higher lows since Wednesday; Friday's 1.4133-1.4154 range broken Monday.
USDCAD has carved higher lows off Wednesday's 1.4078 low, with the main leg of the week's impulse running from London into the first hour of NY on Thursday as a firm USD and Fed-BoC divergence weighed on CAD, now a seventh straight daily gain. Monday opened with a gap down to 1.4135 but cleared the 1.4154 prior-week high in Asia and extended through NY hours to 1.4177. Asia has since printed a new week high at 1.41845, and H1 pullbacks keep holding just above EMA(20) with RSI(14) at 67, short of overbought.
Support: 1.4177, 1.4154, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.41845, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) could materially shift this read; a positive print is the main pullback risk
JOLTS and US Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus Fedspeak into 19:00 UTC, could move the USD side
Acceptance above the 1.4200 round number extends the run beyond the week high; a rejection there with RSI rolling over would mark stalling momentum
An H1 close back below 1.4177 (prior-day high) and EMA(20) would be the first break in the higher-lows sequence
Loss of the higher lows trendline and the 1.4154 prior-week high would put the weekly open at 1.4135 and the 38.2% of the week's impulse back in play
Higher lows since Monday open along rising trendline.
The week's main impulse came during Thursday's London-NY transition, lifting the pair from the 1.4100 area to 1.4149 before a Thursday-Friday consolidation. Since Monday's weekly open at 1.4135, price has printed higher lows along a rising trendline, with NY-session pullbacks to the 1.4155 swing low and the EMA(20) absorbed as the Fed-hike repricing and firm US yields kept CAD heavy. Asia set a week high at 1.4185, but RSI(14) near 61 is well off its Thursday extreme and bar ranges are compressing below the untested 1.4200 round number.
Support: 1.4172, 1.4155, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.4185, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada GDP (12:30 UTC, f/c 0%): a positive surprise could force a pullback through the ema20 toward the 1.4155 swing low
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus Fedspeak, could shift USD tone during NY hours
An hourly close below the 1.4155 swing low breaks the Monday higher-low trendline
Acceptance above the 1.4185 week high puts the 1.4200 round number in play; failure there keeps the week impulse fib 38.2% near 1.4144 and the weekly open in focus
Higher lows since Wednesday, stalling below 1.4200.
USD/CAD has built a steady sequence of higher lows since Wednesday's 1.4078 base. The dominant leg came in Thursday's NY session, which lifted price from 1.4105 to 1.4149. Monday then ground higher from the 1.4135 weekly open along a rising support line, as the firm USD and Fed hike repricing kept CAD heavy. Price holds above EMA(20) near 1.4171 with RSI(14) in the mid-60s, but the move has stalled at the 1.4185 Asia high, just shy of the 1.4200 round number.
Support: 1.4171, 1.4155, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.41845, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%): a positive print could drive a pullback toward the monday dip at 1.4155
An H1 close below the rising support and ema20 near 1.4170 breaks the higher-low sequence
Acceptance above the 1.4200 round number extends the run beyond the Asia high cap
Loss of the 1.4135 weekly open would take price through the 38.2% level of the week impulse fib
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since Wednesday; Monday's grind holding a rising trendline.
USD/CAD has printed higher highs and higher lows since Wednesday's 1.4074 low. The dominant leg came through Thursday's London-NY transition, clearing 1.4130. Monday then ground higher from the 1.4135 weekly open as Fed hike repricing widened the US-Canada yield gap. Price holds above EMA(20) and EMA(50), with Monday's NY low at 1.4155 anchoring the rising trendline, and RSI(14) near 66 is elevated but not overbought as the Asia session prints a fresh high at 1.4185.
Support: 1.4170, 1.41552, 1.41348
Resistance: 1.41845, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Canada GDP at 12:30 UTC and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
An H1 close back below the ema20 near 1.4170 and the rising trendline would break Monday's higher-low sequence
Loss of Monday's ny low at 1.4155 exposes the weekly open 1.4135 and the fib 38.2% near 1.4142
Acceptance above the asia high 1.4185 brings the 1.4190 area and the 1.4200 round number into view
Stair-step higher lows since Wednesday; prior-week high broken Monday.
USD/CAD has built a sequence of higher lows since Wednesday's 1.4067 low. Thursday's London-NY transition leg was the dominant impulse, and Monday's push through the 1.4154 prev wk high carried to a fresh week high at 1.4179 in Asia today. Monday's NY-hours pullbacks held at EMA20 and the rising Monday trendline, while RSI(14) sits in the high 60s short of overbought, with the widening Fed-BoC gap and 10y yields at 2007 highs behind the move and the 1.4190 cited level and 1.4200 round number overhead.
Support: 1.4170, 1.4154, 1.4135
Resistance: 1.4179, 1.4190, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the Monday trendline and the 1.4154 prev wk high would undercut the breakout
Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%): a +0.2% or better print could drive a retracement of the 1.4067 rally toward the 1.4135 weekly open
Acceptance above the 1.4190 cited level opens the 1.4200 round number
US JOLTS 14:00 UTC and Waller 19:00 UTC today, then ADP Wed 12:15 UTC, could materially shift this read