21:05 UTC
Uptrend resumed, overbought · RSI 74 · price 1.41789
Double bottom breakout, HH/HL since Sep 8.
USD/CAD has reversed the Jun–Aug decline. A double bottom at 1.3730–1.3760 (Aug 21 / Sep 8) cleared its 1.3940 neckline and the broken downtrend line from the July highs in mid-September, and a seven-session run has since carried price above the 78.6% fib of the Jun–Aug decline near 1.4137. The advance tracks a widening US-Canada yield gap on hawkish Fed repricing, with price above a turning EMA(50) and RSI at 74 in overbought territory, while the 1.4200 round number and the 1.4240–1.4248 june high that capped the pair in late June and early July sit directly overhead.
Support: 1.4137, 1.4110, 1.3940
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4248
What it said to watch
- A daily close above the 1.4248 june high would mark a fresh five-month high and extend the HH/HL chain
- A move back below the 1.4110 jul pivot would put price under the 78.6% fib and open the 1.4050 area (61.8%)
- US core PCE and ADP on Wed Sep 30 (core PCE f/c 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read, with NFP due Friday
- RSI above 70 on a seven-day streak: a stall below the 1.4200 round number would set up a bearish RSI divergence on any retest
- A daily close back under the 1.3940 neckline would negate the double bottom