Higher highs / higher lows since 1.3759 double bottom.
USDCAD has printed steady higher highs and higher lows since the early-September double bottom at 1.3765/1.3759. The climb has run about 395 pips along a rising trendline, driven by Fed hike pricing and wide US-Canada spreads. Price is now flattening just under the 1.4154 swing high, inside the 1.4130–1.4150 late-July highs, with the recent pullback low at 1.4128 holding. ATR(14) has compressed to ~18 pips from the 60–80 pip bars seen early in the window, and RSI near 71 is stretched. Both EMAs are rising beneath price, and the pair sits roughly 90 pips above Scotiabank's 1.4055 fair value.
Support: 1.4128, 1.4087, 1.4055
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.4128 pullback low would shift the read to a correction inside the uptrend
Loss of the rising trendline and the 1.4087 swing low would break the higher-low sequence and open the 38.2% fib near 1.4003
H4 close above the 1.4154 swing high extends the trend toward the 1.4200 round number
Fed's Hammack today, Canada GDP Tue and US ADP/GDP Wed could materially shift this read; a soft US print has room to pull price toward fair value at 1.4055
Higher highs / higher lows since the 1.3759 swing low.
USDCAD has printed higher highs and higher lows since the early-September swing low at 1.3759. Price sits above a rising EMA20 and EMA50 and is pausing just under the 1.4154 window high. The advance is a steady, low-volatility grind rather than an expansion (ATR(14) near 18 pips), driven by Fed-BoC policy divergence and firm US PMIs, and RSI near 76 is overbought after a near-unbroken run of up days.
Support: 1.4130, 1.4100, 1.4058
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.4200
What it said to watch
An H4 close above the 1.4154 window high opens the path to the 1.4200 round number
An H4 close below the 1.4130 swing low would break the recent higher-low sequence and put the 1.4100 round number in play
A break of the rising trendline near 1.4058, which lines up with the 23.6% fib of the 1.3759-1.4154 advance, would challenge the uptrend read
UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) and Fed's Hammack (18:00 UTC) today could shift October hike odds and this read
Canada July GDP on Tue 12:30 UTC (f/c 0%) is the main CAD-side risk to the current structure
09:03 UTC
Uptrend, stretched but orderly · RSI 75 · price 1.41447
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3760 double bottom.
The Sep rally off the 1.3760 double bottom has built a clean higher-high/higher-low sequence, and price is pressing the 1.4154 swing high after clearing the 1.4110 prior highs. The move was driven by Fed-hike pricing and weaker oil on US-Iran Hormuz talk. EMA20 sits above EMA50 with price above both. ATR(14) has compressed to about 18 pips from the wide early-window bars, so this is a steady grind rather than an impulse, and RSI near 75 is stretched after five straight up-days.
Support: 1.4110, 1.4057, 1.4003
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.4200
What it said to watch
An H4 close above the 1.4154 swing high extends the sequence and opens the path to the 1.4200 round number
An H4 close back below the 1.4110 prior highs would mark the breakout as failing
A break of the rising trendline near 1.4050 together with the 1.4057 swing low ends the higher-low structure, exposing the fib 38.2 near 1.4003
Fed's Williams and Hammack, Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could shift Fed-hike pricing today
Canada GDP on Tue 12:30 UTC and oil swings on Hormuz headlines are the CAD-side risks to the read
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3759 swing low; price at the window high.
Clean higher-high, higher-low sequence since the 1.3759 swing low. Price is now pressing the 1.4149 window high after clearing the 1.4113 breakout lvl and the late-July highs, helped by a hawkish Fed repricing and US flash PMI beats against a softer CAD. ATR(14) near 18 pips is well below the early-window swings, so this is a low-volatility grind along a rising trendline, not an expanding trend, with RSI in overbought territory after five straight up days.
Support: 1.4113, 1.4097, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the rising trendline (~1.4130) and the 1.4113 breakout lvl would signal the grind stalling
Failure to hold the 1.4097 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the fib 38.2% near the 1.4000 round figure
Sustained trade above the 1.4149 window high opens the path toward the 1.4200 round number
UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC today) and Canada GDP (Tue 29 Sep) could materially shift this read
01:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended · RSI 75 · price 1.4146
Higher highs and higher lows since the Sep 8 low.
Higher-high, higher-low structure has held since the Sep 8 low at 1.3759. The 390-pip impulse has now pushed through the late-July high zone at 1.4125/30 to a fresh swing high at 1.4149, with EMA20 stacked above EMA50. Hawkish Fed repricing and this week's run of US data beats (PMIs, claims) drove the leg. ATR(14) near 19 pips is steady rather than compressing, while RSI in overbought territory points to a stretched move pressing into the 1.4200 round number.
Support: 1.4125, 1.4087, 1.4050
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 1.4125 july high would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the 1.4087 swing low, then the rising trendline near 1.4050, would break the higher-low sequence
A retrace to the 38.2% fib of the impulse near 1.4000 would still sit within the uptrend structure
Clearance of the 1.4149 swing high opens the 1.4200 round number
US Durables and UoM inflation expectations Fri, and Canada GDP Tue Sep 29, could materially shift this read