21-pip day range 1.4133–1.4154, rejection at day high, holding 61.8%.
Late NY, thinning into the weekly close. Price rallied off the 1.4134 NY floor and was rejected at the 1.4154 day high set in Asia, then pulled back to a 1.4141 swing low near the 61.8% fib before stabilising. It now sits on EMA20 mid-range with RSI(14) near 45, and the day range stayed tight as the USD paused and oil softened.
Support: 1.41413, 1.4134
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4141 swing low and 61.8% fib opens a retest of the 1.4134 ny floor
Clearing the 1.4149 prior highs brings a third test of the 1.4154 day high into view
Thin liquidity into the Friday close and weekend gap risk around oil and US–Iran headlines could distort the range
20:31 UTC
Sideways, fading from range top · RSI 41 · price 1.41434
Range 1.4133–1.4154, lower highs after the NY rejection.
USDCAD has held a 1.4133–1.4154 range for the full 24h. The range low absorbed four tests through London and NY, and the late-NY rally was rejected at the range top, which matches the Asian high. Lower highs since have pulled price to the 50% of that rally near 1.4143, just under the ema20 (~1.4147) and above the 1.4141 swing low. The flat tape fits the Friday USD pause and softer oil.
Support: 1.41413, 1.41333
Resistance: 1.41466, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4154 range top breaks the range into the 1.4130–1.4150 late-July high zone
Failure to hold the 1.4141 swing low exposes the 1.4133 range low; a break there ends the range read
Reclaim of the ema20 near 1.4147 and the fade trendline would negate the lower-high sequence
Thin liquidity into the Friday close; Canada GDP (Tue 12:30 UTC, f/c 0%) is the next scheduled CAD risk
20:16 UTC
Sideways, late NY pullback from range top · RSI 43 · price 1.41433
Friday range 1.4134–1.4154; third rejection at the day high, price now mid-range.
USDCAD flatlined Friday near two-month highs as the USD paused. Supply capped the day high at 1.4154 three times, twice in early London and again at 17:45 UTC. Buyers held the range low near 1.4134 on repeated London-NY tests. Price has now faded to the 50% retracement of the NY rally, just under 1.4145, with RSI(14) at 43 and ATR at about 3.4 pips into the weekly close.
Support: 1.4141, 1.4134
Resistance: 1.4147, 1.4154
What it said to watch
Close above the day high at 1.4154 breaks the Friday range to the upside
Loss of the range low at 1.4134 flips the range into a lower-low sequence
Break of the late low at 1.4141 takes out the 50% level of the NY rally fib
Recovery through the lower high at 1.4147 puts the range top back in focus
Weekend gap risk on the Asia open, with Canada GDP (Tue 12:30 UTC) the next scheduled CAD catalyst
Intraday range 1.4134–1.4154, second rejection at range top.
USDCAD held a 1.4134–1.4154 range all day. The range low at 1.4134 held four times during London and NY, then a rally stalled again at the range top, matching the London-open high. The late-NY pullback to the 1.4141 swing low sits near the 50% fib of that leg, with a lower high at 1.4147, a quiet Friday tape as the USD pauses near two-month highs.
Support: 1.4141, 1.4134
Resistance: 1.4147, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4154 range top breaks the double rejection and clears the two-month high area
Failure to hold the 1.4141 swing low exposes the 1.4134 range low; a close below it breaks the range
Reclaiming the 1.4147 lower high restores the rally leg from the range low
Thin post-NY liquidity into the weekend; Canada GDP Tue 29 Sep 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled CAD risk
19:46 UTC
Sideways, late-NY pullback from session high · RSI 48 · price 1.41435
21-pip day range 1.4133–1.4154, lower high forming under day high.
The day high at 1.4154, set late in the Asian session, rejected the NY rally again at 1.4154 as the dollar paused on softer oil. The day low at 1.4133 held through London and early NY. Price has since retraced about half the NY rally to 1.4144, just under the ema20 and resting on the 1.4141 ny pullback low, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 1.4141, 1.4133
Resistance: 1.4146, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4141 ny pullback exposes the 1.4133 day low
Failure to hold the 1.4133 day low breaks the day range to the downside
M15 close above the 1.4154 day high invalidates the range read
Thin late-Friday NY hours; oil or US–Iran headlines could distort the range edges
19:31 UTC
Sideways, late-NY pullback from range top · RSI 49 · price 1.41433
24h range 1.4134–1.4154; lower high forming under day high.
Pair has held a 1.4134–1.4154 range all day, stalling near the ~1.4150 two-month high as the USD paused and oil slid. The NY rally off the 1.4134 day low was rejected at the 1.4154 day high after London close, and the pullback is holding the 61.8% fib of that rally at the 1.4141 swing low.
Support: 1.41413, 1.4134
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4141 swing low exposes the 1.4134 day low and the range floor
Recovery above the 1.4149 prior cap puts the 1.4154 day high back in play; a close above it breaks the range
Thin late-Friday liquidity into the weekly close; next scheduled risk is Canada GDP on Tue 29 Sep
19:16 UTC
Sideways, pulling back from range top · RSI 48 · price 1.41434
24h range 1.4133–1.4154, third rejection at the top.
Late NY saw a third rejection at the 1.4154 range top, and price has slipped back below EMA20 to the 61.8% fib of the afternoon rally near 1.4141. The 1.4133–1.4154 range has held through London and NY as USD paused on softer oil and USD/CAD flatlined near two-month highs.
Support: 1.4141, 1.4134
Resistance: 1.4147, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4134 range low breaks the 24h range lower and exposes the 1.4128 overnight gap low
Reclaim of EMA20 near 1.4147 puts the range top back in play; a close above 1.4154 is a range break to fresh two-month highs
Holding the 61.8% fib at 1.4141 keeps the afternoon rally structure intact
Friday close; Canada GDP (Tue 12:30 UTC) and US ADP/PCE (Wed) are the next scheduled catalysts
1.4133–1.4154 day range, lower high forming off the top.
USD/CAD was rejected at 1.4154 twice, at the London open and again late in NY, leaving a double top at the top of a 1.4133–1.4154 day range as the USD paused on softer oil. The late-NY pullback has retraced about 50% of the afternoon rally and is sitting on the 1.4141 swing low, with price just under the ema20.
Support: 1.41413, 1.41339
Resistance: 1.41465, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4141 swing low (61.8% fib) exposes the 1.4134 range floor tested three times in NY
Reclaim of the ema20 near 1.4146 shifts focus back to the 1.4154 double top
Close above 1.4154 breaks the day range toward the 1.4150+ two-month highs
Thin Friday close; weekend oil or Hormuz headlines could gap the Monday open
18:46 UTC
Intraday range lifted late NY, momentum stalling · RSI 58 · price 1.41478
1.4134–1.4149 London/NY range broken higher; retest of range top below session-high cap.
London and early NY were capped at the 1.4149 range top, with a floor at the 1.4134 NY low. Late NY broke higher but met rejection 1 pip under the 1.4154 session high from London open. Price is back on the range top as a retest, sitting just below the 1.4150 july high, RSI(14) cooling to ~58 as USD pauses into the weekly close.
Support: 1.4148, 1.4142, 1.4134
Resistance: 1.4150, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4142 swing low (61.8% of the late-NY rally) returns price inside the prior range and turns the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4134 NY low would put a lower-low on the session
Close above the 1.4154 session high clears the cap and the 1.4150 july high, extending the two-month high
Thin liquidity into the Friday close; weekend US–Iran and oil headlines are gap risk for the open
1.4134–1.4154 day range; NY higher lows back to range top.
London faded the 1.4154 day high down to the 1.4134 day low, where buyers absorbed repeated NY probes. Late NY retraced the whole move back to the day high, which is capping for now. RSI(14) sits near 61 as USD pauses and the pair flatlines at two-month highs into the Friday close.
Support: 1.4150, 1.4140, 1.4134
Resistance: 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4154 day high breaks the session range to the upside
Loss of the 1.4150 psych level and the NY rally trendline points to a rotation toward the 1.4140 asian low, near the 61.8% of the NY rally fib
Failure to hold the 1.4134 day low undoes the triple-bottom base
Late-Friday NY liquidity is thin into the weekly close; the next scheduled catalyst is Canada GDP on Tue
18:16 UTC
Intraday range, late-NY push to range top · RSI 65 · price 1.41531
1.4134–1.4154 range since London; higher lows off the range floor into the close.
The late-NY rally off the 1.4134 range floor has erased the London sell-off, printing a chain of rising lows and pressing the 1.4154 day high, which rejected price twice in early London. Price holds above the Asian high at 1.4149 with RSI(14) near 65, as USD/CAD stays near two-month highs on hawkish-Fed pricing and a heavy CAD.
Support: 1.4149, 1.4142, 1.4134
Resistance: 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4154 day high breaks the session range to the upside
Loss of the 1.4142 swing low breaks the rising lows and returns price to mid-range
A slip back below the 1.4149 Asian high would mark a third rejection at the range top
The range floor at 1.4134 held three times through London and NY; a break shifts structure lower
Thin Friday liquidity into the weekend close; Canada GDP on Tue 29 Sep at 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled CAD catalyst
18:03 UTC
Intraday recovery, pressing range top · RSI 64 · price 1.41531
1.4133–1.4154 day range; higher lows off the NY low, now retesting the day high.
USDCAD held a 1.4133–1.4154 range through London and NY. Repeated tests of the ny low near 1.4134 held, and the NY rally since the London close has carried price back to the day high at 1.4154, first set in the Asian session and at London open. RSI(14) is near 64 with ATR around 5 pips, and CAD stays heavy on softer oil and firm Fed hike pricing.
Support: 1.4150, 1.4140, 1.4133
Resistance: 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4154 day high breaks the day range for the third attempt
Slip back under the 1.4150 round number, then the 1.4140 asian low, keeps the range read intact
Break of the rising trendline from the ny low and loss of 1.4133 would undo the NY rally
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Broke above NY range top, higher lows since 15:00 UTC.
After London close, USDCAD broke out of the 1.4133–1.4149 NY range. The NY floor at 1.4133 had held four times, and a string of higher lows off the 15:00 UTC swing low has carried price to 1.4153. Price is now just under the early-London session high at 1.4154, with RSI(14) near 63 and not stretched, as the pair holds near two-month highs despite the softer Friday dollar.
Support: 1.4149, 1.4138, 1.4133
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read in the thin late-NY tape
A close above the 1.4154 session high clears today's range, leaving the 1.4200 psych level as the next marked level
A slip back below the 1.4149 range top turns the move into a false break
Loss of the rising trendline and the 1.4138 swing low returns price to the 1.4133 NY floor
17:31 UTC
Range-bound, late-NY push toward the range top · RSI 61 · price 1.41507
1.4134–1.4154 range since London; higher lows since the 14:45 UTC low.
The Asian grind higher topped at the 1.4154 session high near London open, and London and NY then held a 1.4134–1.4154 range. Demand held the range low four times. Higher lows after London close have lifted price through the 1.4149 prior highs to test 1.4150, the late-July high zone flagged in a two-month CAD slide, with RSI(14) at 61.
Support: 1.4149, 1.4138, 1.4134
Resistance: 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4154 session high breaks the range top
Loss of the 1.4149 prior highs and the higher-lows trendline reopens the 1.4138 swing low
Break below the 1.4134 range low turns the range read into a range break lower
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could shift this read
17:16 UTC
Intraday range, late-NY push to range top · RSI 62 · price 1.41505
Higher-low chain off 1.4134 session low into 1.4154 London high.
Buyers defended the 1.4134 session low repeatedly through London and NY hours (a triple bottom). Late NY has printed a clean higher-low chain back to the Asian high near 1.4149, just under the 1.4154 London high that capped both early-London spikes. USD paused Friday as oil and yields cooled, leaving the pair pinned near two-month highs.
Support: 1.4149, 1.4142, 1.4134
Resistance: 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4154 London high breaks the session range to fresh two-month highs
Loss of the 1.4142 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and reopens the 1.4134 session low
Slipping back below the 1.4149 Asian high would mark a third rejection at the range top
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read into thin Friday liquidity
Range 1.4133–1.4149 since London, now pressing range top with higher lows.
After rejection at the 1.4154 London high, USDCAD held a 1.4133–1.4149 range through London and NY. Lows have stepped up from 15:00 UTC, and the late-NY push has cleared the range top toward the London high. CAD stays heavy near two-month highs as the USD pauses. RSI(14) at 63 is not stretched.
Support: 1.4148, 1.4134
Resistance: 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4154 london high clears the session high and extends the late-NY push
Slip back below the 1.4148 range top returns price to the 1.4133–1.4149 range
Break of the rising lows trendline and the 1.4134 session low would mark a range failure to the downside
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
16:46 UTC
Sideways, lower highs into late NY · RSI 52 · price 1.41448
1.4134–1.4149 range below the 1.4154 London-open high.
The London open set the session high at 1.4154 and was faded. Since then USD/CAD has chopped between the 1.4134 range floor and the 1.4149 NY high, with lower highs capping each bounce as the USD pause offset firm US data. Price is back near the range top off a 1.4137 swing low, RSI(14) neutral at 52.
Support: 1.4137, 1.4134
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4149 NY high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 1.4154 session high
Loss of the 1.4137 swing low returns price to the 1.4134 range floor; a close below it turns the band into a lower-low sequence
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could shift this read as liquidity thins into the weekly close
16:31 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 52 · price 1.41431
Range 1.4133–1.4149 below the 1.4154 Asia high.
The 1.4154 Asia high was rejected at the London open and the pair has since chopped between a 1.4133 range floor and a 1.4149 range top. Both edges were tested repeatedly through NY hours without a close outside, as the USD paused on the oil and yield pullback and mixed durables and UoM data. Late in the NY session, price sits at the 50% retrace of the Asia-high selloff with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 1.41339, 1.41277
Resistance: 1.41489, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4149 range top reopens the 1.4154 asia high, the two-month high area
Failure to hold the 1.4133 range floor exposes the 1.4128 rollover low
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could break the range if hike pricing is endorsed
US-Iran deal and oil headlines remain a live input on CAD into the weekend
1.4133–1.4149 range below the session high, lower highs.
London faded the 1.4154 session high and slipped through the Asian low near 1.4140. Since then USD/CAD has chopped between a 1.4134 range low and a 1.4149 range high as the USD pauses into the weekend, with each bounce rejected and making slightly lower highs. RSI(14) sits near 48 and ATR is about 7 pips after London close, with no directional setup in play.
Support: 1.4134, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4149 range high and the lower highs line reopens the 1.4154 session high
Failure to hold the 1.4134 range low exposes the 1.4125 prior low
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
16:02 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since London open · RSI 47 · price 1.41399
16-pip range 1.4133–1.4149 capped by a descending line off the session high.
USDCAD set its session high at 1.4154 at the start of London and has since held a 1.4133–1.4149 range with lower highs. Price was rejected at the range top at 14:00 and 15:45 UTC. It is flatlining near two-month highs as the USD pauses after mixed-to-firm US data, with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 1.4133, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4133 range low exposes yesterday's 1.4125 swing low
Close above the 1.4149 range top and the lower-highs line reopens the 1.4154 session high
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could break the range
Oil / US–Iran headlines remain a live CAD input into the NY close
1.4134–1.4149 range since late London, lower highs from 1.4154.
The session high at 1.4154 was tagged twice around London open and failed, leaving lower highs. Since late London the pair has been boxed in a 1.4134–1.4149 range. The range low has held on four NY-hours tests, and rallies were rejected at the range top twice despite firm Friday US data. RSI(14) is neutral near 47, and price sits just under both EMAs.
Support: 1.4134, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4134 range low exposes the 1.4125 prior-day low
M15 close above the 1.4149 range top breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 1.4154 session high back in play
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could jolt the range into the Friday close
1.4134–1.4149 range below London-open high, flat lower highs.
The London-open push to the 1.4154 session high was rejected. Price has since chopped between a 1.4134 range low and a 1.4149 range top through the NY session, putting in a sequence of lower highs. Mixed-to-firm US data left the pair capped despite heavy CAD tone, and with RSI(14) near 45 and ATR around 6.5 pips, the range is compressed with no directional break yet.
Support: 1.4134, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4149 range top breaks the lower highs and reopens the 1.4154 session high
Failure to hold the 1.4134 range low, tested five times since London, exposes yesterday's 1.4125 prior low
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could shift Fed-hike pricing and this read
15:16 UTC
Sideways, pressing range floor · RSI 44 · price 1.41362
Flat range 1.4133–1.4149 since London, capped below Asian high.
USDCAD has ranged between the 1.4133 session low and the 1.4149 range top since London faded the 1.4154 Asian high, with three rejections just under 1.4149. Late in the NY session, after London close, price is back at the range floor, near the 78.6% retrace of the overnight leg. CAD stays heavy on Fed–BoC divergence, but a Friday pause in USD and yields has kept the pair boxed.
Support: 1.4133, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4133 session low breaks the range and exposes the prior-day low at 1.4125
Recovery through the 1.4149 range top reopens the 1.4154 Asian high
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could shift October-hike pricing and this read
15:02 UTC
Range after London fade, lower highs · RSI 42 · price 1.41362
Compressing between 1.4133 range floor and 1.4149 lower highs.
London open printed the session high at 1.4154 before fading. Since then price has been boxed between a 1.4133 range floor, tested four times, and lower highs near 1.4149. The spike on the Michigan sentiment beat was rejected at that cap as the USD paused on softer oil and yields.
Support: 1.41335, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4133 range floor exposes the 1.4125 prior low from Thursday's session
Close above the 1.4149 lower highs line reopens the 1.4154 session high
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could shift this read via October-hike pricing
14:46 UTC
Sideways, bid back to range top · RSI 61 · price 1.41481
1.4133–1.4154 intraday range; higher lows since the London low.
Mid-NY session, USDCAD is back at the 1.4149 range top after the 14:00 UTC UoM window, with the CAD-heavy backdrop keeping dips shallow. The London low at 1.4133 has held, and higher NY lows along the rising line are pressing price into supply that capped moves at 12:00 and 14:00 UTC. The 1.4154 session high sits just above.
Support: 1.4140, 1.4133, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4154 session high breaks the Asian/London range
Third rejection at 1.4149 range top keeps the range read intact toward the 1.4140 ny pivot
Loss of the rising line and 1.4133 london low exposes the 1.4125 prior low
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could shift the read into the NY afternoon
14:31 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since London · RSI 51 · price 1.41427
NY range 1.4133–1.4149 capped by a descending line of highs off 1.4154.
London rejected the 1.4154 Asia high twice, and the London selloff ran to a 1.4133 session low. NY has since held a 1.4133–1.4149 range with lower highs. The UoM spike to the 1.4149 NY high faded back to mid-range, with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 1.4133, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4149 NY high breaks the lower-highs sequence and exposes the 1.4154 Asia high
Failure to hold the 1.4133 session low opens yesterday's prior low at 1.4125
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could shift October hike pricing and break this range
14:16 UTC
Sideways, drifting lower from early London high · RSI 53 · price 1.41419
Lower highs from 1.4154 against a flat 1.4133 base; contracting range.
Early London rejection at the 1.4154 session high set up a lower high at 1.4150 and another at 1.4149 at 12:00 UTC. Demand has held 1.4133–1.4136 (the London low) four times into early NY, so price is compressing mid-range as the USD pauses and soft oil keeps the pair near two-month highs.
Support: 1.4133, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4154 session high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the pair at fresh two-month highs
Failure to hold the 1.4133 London low exposes yesterday's prior low at 1.4125
UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC, f/c 4.6% / 3.4%) and Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could break the compression either way
14:02 UTC
Sideways after the London dip, lower highs capping · RSI 51 · price 1.41419
Lower highs from 1.4154 against higher lows at 1.4133–1.4136, compressing.
London broke the asian low at 1.4140 and printed a london low at 1.4133, but NY session dips have held higher at 1.4134–1.4136 beneath a descending trendline from the 1.4154 asian high. Price is back at the asian low as UoM lands, with the USD bid pausing and the ny high at 1.4149 capping.
Support: 1.41398, 1.41329, 1.41251
Resistance: 1.41489, 1.4154
What it said to watch
UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC, current bar) could break the compression either way
M15 close above the 1.4149 ny high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain; the 1.4154 asian high is next
Failure to hold the 1.4133 london low confirms a lower low and exposes Thursday's prior low at 1.4125
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could shift the read after NY hours
London set the session high at 1.4154 just above the Asian range, then rolled over into a 1.4133–1.4149 range with lower highs, the latest a rejection at 1.4149. The london low near 1.4134 has held three tests. Early NY trades mid-range with RSI flat near 51 as the USD pauses and oil softens ahead of UoM.
Support: 1.4134, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4134 london low breaks the range floor and exposes the 1.4125 prior low
M15 close above the 1.4149 lower high reopens the 1.4154 session high
UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Fed's Hammack follows at 18:00 UTC
13:31 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since London open · RSI 47 · price 1.41424
Range 1.4133–1.4149 under a 1.4154 double top.
USDCAD was rejected twice at the 1.4154 day high around London open, then broke the 1.4140 asian low to a 1.4133 session low as DXY eased off its highs. Early NY is rotating back inside the Asian range under a lower highs line, with the 1.4149 asian high capping. RSI(14) near 47 and a 5-pip ATR point to compressed trade.
Support: 1.4140, 1.4133, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4154
What it said to watch
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could break the 1.4133–1.4149 band
M15 close above the 1.4149 asian high breaks the lower highs sequence and puts the 1.4154 day high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.4133 session low exposes the 1.4125 prior low
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC is a second risk point for hike-odds repricing
Lower highs since London open, holding above 1.4133 session low.
London open pushed through the Asian high to a 1.4154 session high, then failed and reversed back through the Asian range. Lower highs followed down to a 1.4133 session low. Early NY is chopping around 1.4140 below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 45 as USD pauses on softer oil and mixed durable goods.
Support: 1.4133, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4133 session low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 1.4125 prior low
Close above the 1.4149 asian high breaks the lower highs line and reopens the 1.4154 session high
UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US-Iran / crude headlines remain the main CAD swing factor
London faded from the Asian high at 1.4154 to a session low at 1.4133 and has printed lower highs since. Mixed durable goods drew a NY-open rejection at 1.4149, leaving price mid-range near 1.4140 with RSI(14) at 44 as the pair pauses after the push through the late-July highs.
Support: 1.41329, 1.41251
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4149 breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the asian high at 1.4154 back in view
Failure to hold the session low at 1.4133 exposes the prior low at 1.4125, near the late-July highs zone
UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Fed's Hammack follows at 18:00 UTC
12:46 UTC
Mild intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 42 · price 1.41381
Lower highs off 1.4154 session high; floor at 1.4133–1.4140.
USDCAD was capped at the 1.4154 session high into London open and has printed lower highs since. The 12:00 UTC pop to 1.4149 (rejection hi) faded, and price is back under the 1.4140 pivot, with the 1.4133 London low the nearest floor. The pause fits the digest's read of a softer USD as oil and yields cool after an extended CAD selloff.
Support: 1.41329, 1.41251
Resistance: 1.4140, 1.41489, 1.4154
What it said to watch
Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC lands on the current bar; ex-transport versus the 0.6% forecast can reset the intraday range
An M15 close back above the 1.4140 pivot and the lower-highs trendline near 1.4148 negates the fade from the session high
Failure to hold the 1.4133 London low exposes yesterday's NY low at 1.4125, the late-July highs zone
UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (1y f/c 4.6%) and Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC are further event risk for this range
12:31 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since London open · RSI 38 · price 1.41376
Lower highs below 1.4154 London high, Asian range 1.4128–1.4150 intact.
Rejection at the 1.4154 London high was followed by a string of lower highs and a 1.4133 London low at 11:30 UTC. The 12:00 UTC bounce stalled at a 1.4149 lower high and price is back near 1.4138, inside the Asian range, as USD pauses on cooler oil and yields.
Support: 1.4133, 1.4128, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4154
What it said to watch
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) lands on this bar and could materially shift this read
Break of the 1.4133 london low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.4128 asian low, then the 1.4125 ny low from Thursday
M15 close above the 1.4149 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 1.4154 london high
UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC are further event risk
12:16 UTC
Sideways, London lower highs · RSI 46 · price 1.41442
Back inside Asian range after failed London breakout and dip.
London's false break above the 1.4150 Asian high capped twice at the 1.4154 London high, then slid to a 1.4133 London low as oil and yields cooled. Price has recovered back inside the 1.4140–1.4150 Asian range into the NY open and is testing the lower-high trendline and the 50–61.8% fib near 1.4145.
Support: 1.4140, 1.4133, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4150, 1.4154
What it said to watch
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC (f/c -0.4%, ex-transport 0.6%) lands on the NY open and could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.4150 asian high breaks the lower-high trendline and exposes the 1.4154 london high
Failure to hold the 1.4140 asian low reopens the 1.4133 london low, with yesterday's 1.4125 prior low below
UoM 1y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (f/c 4.6%) add a second volatility window in NY hours
12:02 UTC
Intraday pullback from session high, bouncing into NY · RSI 46 · price 1.41442
London lower highs/lower lows from 1.4154; rebound to 50% retracement.
Asia ground up to a 1.4154 session high that was rejected into the London open. London then printed lower highs and lower lows to a 1.4133 swing low, in line with Friday's USD pause as yields eased. The bounce into the London-NY transition has pushed through the lower-highs line and sits at the 50% fib (1.4144), just under the 1.4147 lower high.
Support: 1.4140, 1.4133, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4147, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4147 lower high breaks the London sequence and puts the 1.4154 session high back in play
Failure back below the 1.4140 pivot reopens the 1.4133 swing low, then the 1.4125 prior low
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC is a hike-odds risk for USD
11:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 48 · price 1.4141
Double top at 1.4154, then LH/LL chain; Asian low broken and being retested.
Supply capped 1.4154 twice around London open in a double top. Since then price has printed lower highs under a trendline and broke the asian low near 1.4140 to a 1.4133 london low as USD eased on softer yields. Late London has price back at the asian low. RSI(14) is neutral near 48 and ATR is only ~4.6 pips ahead of NY data.
Support: 1.4140, 1.4133, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4144, 1.4154
What it said to watch
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC, first hour of NY, could break the tight range either way
M15 close above the 1.4144 lower high breaks the London trendline and negates the LH chain
Failure to hold the 1.4133 london low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4125 prior ny low
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, plus Hammack at 18:00 UTC, may reshape the read
Double top at 1.4154 stays the session ceiling unless it is reclaimed on a close
11:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 42 · price 1.41389
Double top at 1.4154, Asian range low broken, LH/LL chain.
The 1.4154 session high capped price twice around London open. London has since printed lower highs along a falling trendline and slipped below the 1.4140 Asian low, as softer yields and a USD pause stall the stretched rally. A wick to the 1.4133 session low was bought back, leaving price just under the broken asian low heading into NY.
Support: 1.4133, 1.4128, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4140, 1.4150, 1.4154
What it said to watch
Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close back above the 1.4140 asian low and the lower-high trendline negates the range break
Failure to hold the 1.4133 session low exposes the 1.4128 rollover low and the 1.4125 prior low
A break of the 1.4150 lower high reopens the 1.4154 session high and the double top
11:16 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs through London · RSI 39 · price 1.41394
Lower-high sequence from 1.4154, sitting on the Asian range floor.
London rejected the 1.4154 double top set around the open. It has since printed lower highs along a descending trendline, slipping to a 1.4136 session low just under the 1.4140 Asian range floor. Price is below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 39, a modest intraday pullback against the broader USD bid from Fed hike pricing.
Support: 1.41362, 1.41251
Resistance: 1.41498, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4150 lower high and the descending trendline negates the London lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4136 session low exposes yesterday's 1.4125 ny low
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:02 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since London open · RSI 41 · price 1.41394
Double top at 1.4154, lower highs and lows, Asian low broken.
London rejected a double top at 1.4154 and has since printed lower highs under a descending trendline. Price broke the Asian low near 1.4140 to a London low at 1.4136, with RSI(14) near 41 and price below both EMAs. Late-London trade is stalling just under the broken Asian low ahead of the US data, and the London drop has barely retraced.
Support: 1.41362, 1.41251
Resistance: 1.41398, 1.41498, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4150 lower high breaks the descending trendline and neutralises the pullback read
Failure to hold the 1.4136 London low exposes yesterday's 1.4125 NY swing low
Reclaim of the 1.4140 Asian low would signal the break below it was a false break
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read around the NY open
10:46 UTC
Intraday range, drifting lower off London high · RSI 39 · price 1.41404
Lower highs from 1.4154 pressing the 1.4140 range floor.
London was rejected twice at the 1.4154 london high after a tight 1.4140–1.4149 Asian range. It has since set lower highs at 1.4150 and 1.4147, putting price back on the 1.4140 range floor, which has been tested three times since Asia and sits on the 50% retrace of the 1.4125–1.4154 leg. RSI(14) is near 39 and the tape is quiet ahead of NY, with the oil-driven CAD softness in the backdrop failing to extend the high.
Support: 1.4140, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4150, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4140 range floor breaks the range and exposes the 1.4125 swing low
M15 close back above the 1.4150 lower high negates the descending lower-highs trendline and puts the 1.4154 london high back in play
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:31 UTC
Sideways, fading from London highs · RSI 41 · price 1.41417
Lower highs pressing a flat 1.4140 base.
London's break above the Asian range stalled with a double top at 1.4154, followed by lower highs at 1.4150 and 1.4147. Price has been compressed back onto the 1.4140 Asian low, which also sits at the 50% fib of yesterday's 1.4125–1.4154 leg. RSI(14) is near 41 with price below both EMAs, after an oil- and Fed-driven rally that the digest flags as stretched.
Support: 1.4140, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4150, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4140 asian low breaks the London base and exposes the 1.4125 swing low
A close above the descending trendline and the 1.4150 lower high reopens the 1.4154 double top
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Range 1.4140–1.4154; London rejected at top, held at Asian low.
London was rejected twice at the 1.4154 session high, then slid back to the 1.4140 Asian low, where buyers stepped in. The recovery stalled at the 1.4150 bounce high, near the 61.8% of the London drop, leaving price mid-range at 1.4145 with RSI(14) near 48. Hawkish Fed pricing and softer oil keep the pair pinned near the top of yesterday's advance, but the range is compressing ahead of US data.
Support: 1.4140, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4150, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4154 session high breaks the Asian range top
Failure to hold the 1.4140 Asian low opens yesterday's NY prior low at 1.4125
A reclaim of the 1.4150 bounce high puts the range top back in play
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could break the range
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC is a risk for October hike odds and USD tone
Tight range 1.4140–1.4154 with lower highs after London open rejection.
London open pushed above the 1.4140–1.4149 Asian range and printed a double top at the 1.4154 session high, then dropped back into the range. The rebound stalled at the 1.4150 bounce high and price has since held above the 1.4140 london low, making lower highs, with RSI(14) neutral near 48 and price marginally below both EMAs. The pair is holding near two-month highs on hawkish Fed pricing and softer oil, but intraday movement is compressed, with ATR at about 4 pips.
Support: 1.4140, 1.4128, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4150, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4154 session high breaks the double top and the lower-highs line
Failure to hold the 1.4140 london low exposes the 1.4128 gap low and the 1.4125 prior low from yesterday's NY dip
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could break the range during the first hours of NY
Fed's Williams/Hammack remarks and US-Iran oil headlines can shift USD/CAD late in the NY session
Range 1.4140–1.4154, lower highs since London open.
London printed a double top at the 1.4154 session high and slid back to the Asian low at 1.4140, where demand stepped in. Price is now mid-range near 1.4145, capped by lower highs under 1.4150 as easing yields cool the Fed-driven USD bid ahead of US data.
Support: 1.4140, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4150, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4154 session high voids the double top and resumes the up-leg
Failure to hold the 1.4140 Asian low exposes the 1.4125 prior low from yesterday's NY session
Break of the lower highs trendline near 1.4150 shifts the range read higher
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could reshape the range
Fed's Williams and Hammack speaking today, and Hormuz oil headlines, are the main CAD-side risks
1.4140–1.4154 range since Asia, lower high at 1.4150.
USD/CAD has held a tight 1.4140–1.4154 range since Asia after Thursday's claims-driven push through 1.4130. London posted a second rejection at the 1.4154 session high, dipped to the range low, then stalled at a 1.4150 lower high near the 61.8–78.6% retrace of the London drop. RSI(14) sits at 46 with price flat just under EMA20/50.
Support: 1.4140, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4150, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4140 range low exposes Thursday's 1.4125 swing low
Close above the 1.4150 lower high and 1.4154 session high breaks the range to the upside
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Fed's Williams and Hammack speak today, and hike-odds repricing could break the range
1.4140–1.4154 range after a failed London break above the Asian high.
London open pushed through the 1.4150 Asian high to a 1.4154 session high and was rejected. The drop stalled at the 1.4140 Asian low, where demand stepped in for a second time since 01:00 UTC, and price has recovered to about 62% of the London drop fib near 1.4149. Softer oil on the Hormuz talks and Fed-hike pricing keep the pair pinned near two-month highs.
Support: 1.4140, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4150, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4154 session high breaks the London rejection and ends the range read
Failure to hold the 1.4140 Asian low exposes the 1.4125 ny swing low from yesterday's NY sell-off
Williams at 09:15 UTC, Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift the London drop fib read into the NY session
09:03 UTC
Flat at highs after Thursday's rally · RSI 51 · price 1.41487
Range 1.4140–1.4154, both edges tested in London.
USD/CAD is holding near two-month highs after Thursday's rally, with Fed hike pricing and softer oil still weighing on CAD. Early London was rejected twice at the 1.4154 session high, then dipped to the 1.4140 asian low, where buyers stepped in. Price is back mid-range at 1.4149, with the bounce retracing about 61.8% of the London drop.
Support: 1.4140, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4154 session high breaks the range to the upside
Failure to hold the 1.4140 asian low turns the twin rejection at 1.4154 into a lower-high and exposes the 1.4125 ny low
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
08:31 UTC
Uptrend stalling, London pullback · RSI 38 · price 1.41406
Double top at 1.4154, testing Asian range low.
London open retested the 1.4154 high set in late Asia and was rejected, leaving a double top. Price has slid 14 pips back to the 1.4140 Asian low, which also marks the 50% fib of the swing low-to-double top advance. The drop comes as USD eases off Thursday's highs; RSI(14) sits near 38 with price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.4140, 1.41251
Resistance: 1.4148, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4140 asian low breaks the Asian range and exposes the 1.4125 swing low
Recovery above the 1.4148 asian top neutralises the double top; a break of 1.4154 resumes the uptrend
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
08:16 UTC
Range after overnight grind higher, momentum fading · RSI 44 · price 1.41437
Double top at 1.4154, pullback into Asian range.
USD/CAD tagged the 1.4154 session high twice, late Asia and again at London open. The last bar slid to 1.4143, back under the 1.4149 prior high, as USD eased with cooler yields and oil headlines. Price now sits at the 38.2% fib of the 1.4128 rollover low to 1.4154 move, with the 50% level lining up with the asian low at 1.4140.
Support: 1.4140, 1.4128
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asian low at 1.4140 (50% fib) confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.4128 rollover low
Reclaim of the 1.4149 prior high and a close through the 1.4154 session high negates the double top
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Hawkish Fedspeak and the 5.085% 7-year auction took USD/CAD to a two-month high. London's push back to 1.4154 was rejected, leaving a double top above the Asian range. The 07:45 UTC drop broke the Asia uptrend line and put price back under the 1.4149 prior high, at the 38.2% fib near 1.4144. The pair now sits below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 43, and the Asian low at 1.4140 is the nearest floor above the 1.4125 swing low.
Support: 1.4140, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4140 asian low opens the 50–61.8% fib band at 1.4141–1.4138 and the 1.4125 swing low
Reclaim of the 1.4149 prior high and a close above the 1.4154 double top invalidates the rejection read
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC could materially shift this read
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC are later-session risk
Higher lows off the Asian low, pressing the 1.4154 session high.
A pre-London push cleared the Asian high at 1.4150 and London open tagged the 1.4154 session high a second time. The 06:45 UTC dip held the 1.4145 pullback low, keeping the rising trendline from the 1.4140 Asian low intact as hawkish Fedspeak and higher US yields keep the pair near two-month highs.
Support: 1.4150, 1.4145, 1.4140
Resistance: 1.4154, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4154 session high extends the higher-high chain and opens the path toward the 1.4200 round number
Failure to hold the 1.4145 pullback low breaks the rising trendline and puts price back inside the Asian range, toward the 1.4140 Asian low
Losing the 1.4150 asian high on a close turns the breakout into a false break
Williams at 09:15 UTC, US durables at 12:30 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows from rollover low, tight Asian range capped at 1.4150.
An early London spike to the 1.4154 session high above the 1.4150 Asian high was rejected, and price is back inside the 1.4140–1.4150 Asian range with RSI(14) flat near 52. The rising trendline off the 1.4128 rollover low is intact, with USD firm on Fed-hike pricing and higher yields.
Support: 1.41455, 1.41398, 1.41277
Resistance: 1.41495, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4154 session high negates the false-break read
Loss of the 1.4145 early low exposes the 1.4140 Asian low and the rising trendline
Close below the 1.4128 rollover low breaks the higher-low sequence
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, then Durable Goods at 12:30 and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00, could materially shift this read
Higher lows from rollover; tight range under 1.4150 after failed push to 1.4154.
The pre-London push cleared the Asian range top and yesterday's prior high near 1.4150, printing a session high at 1.4154. Price then slipped back inside the range and is holding the 1.4145 swing low into London open, with RSI(14) near 53 and ATR(14) around 2.8 pips. Higher lows from the rollover low at 1.4128 and the Asian low at 1.4140 keep the rising trendline intact as a Fed-hike-driven USD bid extends the fifth straight USD/CAD gain.
Support: 1.41454, 1.41398, 1.41277
Resistance: 1.41495, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4154 session high negates the false-break read
Failure to hold the 1.4145 swing low puts the 1.4140 Asian low and the rising trendline in play
A break below the 1.4128 rollover low undoes the overnight higher-low sequence
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC could lift or trim October hike odds and shift this read
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC is the next data risk for USD
Higher lows intact; tight range under a rejected session-high poke.
USDCAD spent Asia in a tight 1.4146–1.4150 range after recovering from the rollover dip, holding the yield-driven USD run that reached the 1.4149 prior high in yesterday's NY session. A pre-London poke to the 1.4154 session high was rejected straight back into the range. RSI(14) is near 52 and ATR is about 2.4 pips, so momentum has flattened ahead of London open.
Support: 1.4146, 1.4140, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4146 range floor opens the 1.4140 swing low (50% fib)
Loss of the 1.4140 swing low exposes yesterday's ny low at 1.4125
Close back above the 1.4154 session high negates the false break and clears the prior high
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US durable goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Uptrend, early London extension · RSI 64 · price 1.41521
Higher lows off the NY low at 1.4125; Asian range broken to the upside.
USDCAD broke above the 1.4140–1.4149 Asian range into the London open and set a session high at 1.4154, extending the firm-USD, softer-oil move. The Asian low at 1.4140 sits near the 50% fib of the leg from the NY low to the session high. RSI(14) is near 64 and not stretched.
Support: 1.4149, 1.4140, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4154
What it said to watch
M15 close back inside the Asian range below the 1.4149 asian high would mark the range break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4140 asian low (50% fib) would break the higher-low chain back toward the 1.4125 ny low
Acceptance above the 1.4154 session high keeps the extension in play
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, then Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
06:16 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at window high · RSI 63 · price 1.41487
Tight Asian range 1.4140–1.4150 capped at prior NY high; higher lows 1.4125 → 1.4140.
Late Asia, ahead of London open, USD/CAD is pinned under yesterday's NY prior high near 1.4150. A marginal new high at 1.41495 has not produced a break, and the range floor at 1.4146 has held for the past two hours. Yield-led USD strength and softer oil carried the pair up from the 1.4125 swing low, with the Asian low at 1.4140 sitting near the 50% of that rally fib. RSI(14) is around 63 and ATR is about 2 pips, so the range is compressed.
Support: 1.4146, 1.4140, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4150
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4150 prior high breaks the Asian range top and extends the uptrend
Loss of the 1.4146 range floor and then the 1.4140 asian low turns the range into a pullback toward the 1.4125 swing low
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
UoM 1y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC; a sub-4.6% print challenges the USD leg of the rally
06:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling under prior high · RSI 62 · price 1.41487
Tight range 1.4146–1.4150 at top of Asian range; higher lows since 1.4125.
Late Asia session, about an hour before London open, and USD/CAD is compressing in a 1.4146–1.4150 range low-to-high band just under Thursday's NY prior high at 1.4149. Yield-driven USD demand and softer oil on Hormuz talk headlines keep the pair near two-month highs. The Asian low at 1.4140 held on the 01:00 UTC dip and lines up with the 38.2% fib of the 1.4125 swing low to session high move; ATR has shrunk to roughly 2 pips.
Support: 1.4146, 1.4140, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4150
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4150 prior high breaks the Asian range top and extends the higher-high sequence
Loss of the 1.4146 range low exposes the 1.4140 Asian low / 38.2% fib
Break below 1.4125 swing low undoes the post-NY higher-low structure
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, US Durables at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US-Iran Hormuz headlines moving oil remain the main CAD-side swing factor
USD/CAD ran from 1.4100 to the 1.4149 prior high during NY hours as yields lifted the USD and oil slipped on Hormuz talk. The pair has since held above the 1.4125 swing low, and Asia has ground back to retest 1.4149. Ranges have compressed to about 2 pips per bar, with the Asian low at 1.4140 sitting on the 38.2% fib ahead of London open.
Support: 1.41398, 1.41251
Resistance: 1.41492
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4149 prior high breaks the double cap and extends the uptrend
Failure to hold the 1.4140 Asian low (38.2% fib) exposes the 1.4125 swing low
Williams at 09:15 UTC, Durables at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could expand the range
Oil / US-Iran Hormuz headlines remain the main CAD swing factor
05:16 UTC
Uptrend, compressing under highs · RSI 63 · price 1.41487
Asian higher lows into a flat top at the NY high.
Asia recovered the rollover gap and built higher lows back up to the 1.4149 NY high, now pressing it on a sub-3 pip ATR. The late Asian range is tight at 1.4140–1.4149, with USD still bid on Fed hike pricing and softer oil.
Support: 1.4140, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4149
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4149 NY high breaks the flat top and extends the uptrend
Loss of the 1.4140 asian low breaks the higher-lows trendline and reopens the 1.4125 ny low
Williams at 09:15 UTC, Durables at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:02 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at the prior high · RSI 64 · price 1.41487
Asia range pressing Thursday's 1.4149 high after a higher low.
Late Asia session and USD/CAD is back at Thursday's 1.4149 prior high, riding the hawkish-Fed and yield bid, with a tight Asian range of 1.4140–1.4149 sitting on top of the London-NY rally. Thursday's pullback held at the 1.4128 swing low near the 38.2% of that rally. ATR near 2 pips reflects compressed pre-London trade.
Support: 1.4140, 1.4128
Resistance: 1.4149
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4149 prior high clears the equal highs and extends the uptrend
Failure back below the 1.4140 asian low turns the retest into a rejection and opens the 1.4128 swing low
Loss of the 1.4128 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and the 38.2% hold
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, US durables at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Uptrend, Asia grinding into prior high · RSI 69 · price 1.41487
Higher lows through Asia, pressing Thursday's NY high.
USD/CAD extended its yield-driven NY rally from 1.4115 to the 1.4149 prior high. The pullback found support at the ny swing low of 1.4125, close to the 61.8% of the NY rally fib. Asia has since stacked higher lows off the 1.4140 asian low along the asian hl trendline and is back at 1.4149, with RSI(14) near 69 and ATR only about 2.6 pips.
Support: 1.4146, 1.41398, 1.41251
Resistance: 1.41492
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4149 prior high clears Thursday's range top and puts 1.4150+ in play
Rejection at the prior high with a break of the 1.4146 micro hl leaves a double top at 1.4149
Loss of the 1.4140 asian low and the asian hl trendline breaks the intraday higher-low chain; the ny swing low at 1.4125 is next
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC), Durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Asia higher lows off rollover low, tight range under 1.4149.
Yield-driven USD bid carried the pair from the 1.4128 rollover low through the Asia session, and price now sits just under yesterday's NY prior high at 1.4149. The Asian range is tight at 1.4140–1.4149 and ATR(14) is only about 3.6 pips. The Asia leg fib 38.2% sits near 1.4141, overlapping the asia low, and RSI(14) at 57 shows no stretch.
Support: 1.4140, 1.4128, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4149
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4149 prior high breaks the two-session cap
Loss of the 1.4140 asia low exposes the rollover low at 1.4128 and the ny swing low at 1.4125
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US Durables at 12:30 UTC could expand the range
UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC are the likeliest mover in NY hours
Late in the Asia session, price has stepped up in higher lows from the 1.4128 asian low (1.4140, then 1.4141) and is retesting yesterday's NY prior high at 1.4149. That high capped the move that followed the US yield surge and softer oil. RSI(14) is near 57 and ATR is only about 3 pips, so the range is compressed below the level rather than stretched.
Support: 1.4141, 1.4128, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4149
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4149 prior high extends the HH chain into the London open
Break below the 1.4141 higher low and the rising trendline turns the Asian structure into a range, with the 1.4128 asian low and 1.4125 ny low next
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could shift the USD leg
US-Iran Hormuz headlines that move oil could jolt CAD intraday
Late in the Asia session, USDCAD is back at the 1.4149 prior high from Thursday's NY session. The Asian low at 1.4140 held, and the NY dip to the 1.4125 swing low also found demand, keeping the higher-lows chain intact as yield-driven USD strength and softer oil weigh on CAD. RSI(14) sits near 56 and ATR is under 3 pips, so the Asian range is compressed beneath the high.
Support: 1.4140, 1.4125, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4149
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4149 prior high breaks the Asian range top and clears Thursday's NY high
Failure below the 1.4140 asian low reopens the 1.4125 swing low; a break there cuts the higher-lows line, with the 1.4100 round number next
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:46 UTC
Uptrend, pressing prior high · RSI 57 · price 1.4148
Higher lows off rollover low, retesting NY high 1.4149.
Late Asia session is retesting the NY prior high at 1.4149. Higher lows at the 1.4140 swing low and 1.4141 have formed since the rollover low at 1.4128, extending the NY session leg as the hawkish-Fed yield bid and softer oil keep CAD heavy. RSI(14) near 57 shows no stretch, and ATR of about 3 pips reflects a thin Asian range.
Support: 1.4140, 1.4128
Resistance: 1.4149
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4149 prior high opens fresh range highs into London open
Rejection at 1.4149 with a break of the 1.4140 swing low turns this into a double-top test
Loss of the rising-lows trendline and the 1.4128 rollover low undoes the Asia higher-low chain
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Uptrend, pressing prior high · RSI 58 · price 1.41481
Higher lows through Asia from the rollover gap, testing the NY peak.
Late Asia session has recovered the rollover gap to 1.4128 with a chain of rising lows at 1.4140 and 1.4141. Price is now back at the 1.4149 prior high set in NY after the clean US data sweep and hawkish Fed talk. RSI(14) sits near 58 and ATR is only about 3.4 pips, a compressed Asian range ahead of London.
Support: 1.41398, 1.41251
Resistance: 1.41492
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4149 prior high extends the up-leg to fresh session highs; a second rejection there sets up a double-top read
Break of the rising lows line and the 1.4140 asian low neutralises the Asian structure, with the 1.4125 ny low the next reference
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC), Durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; Hormuz/oil headlines remain the CAD swing factor
03:16 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher in Asia · RSI 60 · price 1.41472
Higher lows from rollover low, pressing prior high.
Asia has built higher lows from the rollover low at 1.4128 through the Asian low at 1.4140. Price is now pressing the NY-session prior high at 1.4149, with RSI(14) near 60 and ATR ~3 pips in thin Asian trade. The move rides the broad USD bid on October Fed hike pricing and softer oil weighing on CAD.
Support: 1.41398, 1.41277
Resistance: 1.41492
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4149 prior high extends the uptrend and turns it into a breakout
Failure to hold the 1.4140 asian low breaks the higher-low trendline and reopens the 1.4128 rollover low
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US Durables at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows 1.4125 → 1.4128 → 1.4140 under a flat 1.4147–1.4149 cap.
USDCAD climbed from 1.4097 to a 1.4149 prior high during NY hours after the US claims and new home sales beats. The pullback held at the 1.4125 NY low, and the post-rollover gap low at 1.4128 held near the 38.2% of the NY rally fib. Late in the Asia session, price is pressing the prior high again from a 1.4140 Asian low, with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR(14) around 3 pips.
Support: 1.41398, 1.41277, 1.41251
Resistance: 1.41492
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4149 prior high breaks the compression cap
Failure to hold the 1.4140 asian low exposes the 1.4128 gap low and 1.4125 ny low
A break below 1.4125 ny low would mark the first lower-low since the NY rally
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US durables at 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USD strength after the upbeat US data sweep and higher yields drove a London-NY rally to the 1.41492 NY high. The pullback found buyers at the 1.41251 swing low, near the 50% level of the NY rally fib. Asia has since compressed into a 7-pip range between the 1.41398 asian low and the 1.41471 asian high, with RSI flat near 50 and ATR shrinking to about 3 pips.
Support: 1.41398, 1.41251
Resistance: 1.41471, 1.41492
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.41492 ny high resumes the higher-high sequence
Loss of the 1.41398 asian low opens a deeper pullback within the NY rally fib toward the 1.41251 swing low
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could break the Asian range
Oil moves on US-Iran Hormuz headlines remain a swing factor for CAD
Higher lows; tight Asian range capped under NY high.
USD/CAD is compressing in a 7-pip Asian range (1.4140–1.4147) just under yesterday's NY high at 1.4149, after Fed-hike repricing lifted the pair from the 1.4097 London low. Higher lows at the 1.4128 rollover low and the 1.4140 Asian low keep the micro-uptrend intact. RSI(14) is neutral near 54 and ATR is only about 2.3 pips.
Support: 1.4140, 1.4128
Resistance: 1.4147, 1.4149
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4149 ny high extends the uptrend into fresh two-month highs
Close below the 1.4140 asian low shifts the read to a deeper pullback within the range
Loss of the 1.4128 rollover low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising support line
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and Hormuz/oil headlines could expand the tight Asian range
02:16 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below NY high · RSI 55 · price 1.41436
Higher low at 1.4125 after NY high; tight Asian range beneath it.
The NY rally cleared the 1.4125/30 late-July highs on Fed-hike bets and firm US yields. It topped at the 1.4149 NY high, and the pullback held the 1.4125 swing low near the 50% retrace. Mid-Asia session, price is compressing between the 1.4140 asian low and 1.4147 asian high, with RSI(14) neutral near 55 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 1.4140, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4147, 1.4149
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4149 ny high breaks the Asian range and extends the higher-high chain
Loss of the 1.4140 asian low exposes the 1.4125 swing low, the old late-July high zone
M15 close below the 1.4125 swing low negates the higher-low structure from the NY rally
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC in London could shift this read ahead of US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC
02:02 UTC
Uptrend, stalling below day high · RSI 54 · price 1.41436
Higher lows in Asia, capped at 1.4147/49.
USDCAD climbed from the London low at 1.4097 to a 1.4149 day high in NY on Fed-hike bets and firm US data. The NY pullback held the 1.4125 ny low near the rally fib midpoint. Mid-Asia, the rollover gap has filled and the 01:00 UTC asia dip at 1.4140 kept the Asian trendline of higher lows intact, with 1.4147/49 capping four tests.
Support: 1.4140, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4149
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4149 day high breaks the cap tested since NY
Loss of the 1.4140 asia dip and the Asian trendline turns attention to the 1.4125 ny low
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight Asian range capped under yesterday's NY high.
Mid-Asia session, price is range-bound under the 1.4149 ny high. The 1.4147 asian high has rejected twice, and buyers absorbed the 01:00 UTC dip at the 1.4140 asian dip. Broad USD strength on Fed hike bets carried yesterday's NY rally from the 1.4113 breakout level. The 1.4125 ny swing low sits near the 50% of that NY rally fib and the late-July highs.
Support: 1.4140, 1.4125, 1.4113
Resistance: 1.4147, 1.4149
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4149 ny high reopens the NY rally advance
Loss of 1.4140 asian dip returns focus to the 1.4125 ny swing low and the late-July highs
Break below 1.4113 breakout level negates the London-NY breakout
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Range 1.4125–1.4149 after NY breakout; Asia rejected near the NY high.
NY hours carried USDCAD through the late-July highs to a 1.4149 NY high on the claims beats and firm US yields. The pullback held 1.4125, just above those july highs, and was bought back. Early Asia retested 1.4147 (asia high), and the last full bar sold off to 1.4140, leaving price mid-range with RSI(14) near 47.
Support: 1.41357, 1.41277, 1.41251
Resistance: 1.41471, 1.41492
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4149 ny high breaks the double-tap ceiling and resumes the HH chain
Failure to hold the 1.4136 swing low exposes the 1.4128 rollover low and the 50–61.8% fib zone
A drop back through 1.4125, the july highs, invalidates the breakout-retest read
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US durables at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below the NY high · RSI 62 · price 1.41442
Range 1.4125–1.4149 after Thursday's breakout; Asia grinding back toward the highs.
Fed-hike bets and US yields drove the NY rally to the 1.4149 ny high. The pullback held at the 1.4125 ny low, in the 38.2–50% zone of the rally fib and on the old late-July highs. Early Asia has recovered from the 1.4128 rollover low to press the 1.4147 asia high, holding above the ema20 near 1.4141 with RSI(14) ~62 and ATR only ~2.6 pips.
Support: 1.4141, 1.4128, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4147, 1.4149
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4149 ny high resumes the uptrend; repeated stalls at the asia high keep the range intact
Loss of the ema20 near 1.4141 puts the 1.4128 rollover low back in view
Break below the 1.4125 ny low (38.2–50% rally fib zone) signals a deeper retracement of Thursday's move
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US Durables at 12:30 UTC could reset this range
Higher lows compressing under flat 1.4147–1.4149 cap.
USDCAD broke the prior Asian range in London and ran to a 1.4149 session high in NY, helped by broad USD strength on hawkish Fed talk and a soft Canadian ex-autos retail sales print. The pullback to the 1.4125 NY low held near the 50% retrace of that rally. Early Asia is now compressing beneath 1.4147–49, with higher lows at the 1.4136 swing low and the 1.4140 Asia base, and RSI(14) is neutral near 56.
Support: 1.4140, 1.41357, 1.41251
Resistance: 1.41492
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4149 session high breaks the range top and extends the rally
Loss of the 1.4140 Asia base, then the 1.4136 swing low, ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.4125 NY low
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC could shift the USD bid. Friday durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM (14:00 UTC) are the next event risk
00:46 UTC
Uptrend, compressing below day high · RSI 55 · price 1.4145
NY breakout above late-July highs retested 1.4125, higher low at rollover, Asia pressing 1.4149.
Hawkish Fed talk and the jobless claims beat carried the London-NY rally from 1.4097 through the 1.4125/30 july highs to a 1.4149 day high. The pullback held that zone at 1.4125, near the 38.2% fib. The rollover low at 1.4128 printed a higher low, and Asia has since ground back up to test the day high, with ATR contracting to about 3 pips and price holding above the ema20 at 1.4140.
Support: 1.4140, 1.4128, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4149
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4149 day high extends the higher-high chain out of the Asian range
Failure to hold the 1.4128 rollover low and the 1.4125 july highs retest undermines the breakout read
Loss of the ema20 at 1.4140 turns the Asia grind into a range below the day high
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US durables/UoM at 12:30/14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
00:31 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 63 · price 1.41461
Higher lows under 1.4149 NY high; 1.4125–1.4149 range since late NY.
Early Asia is retesting the 1.4149 NY high after the rollover gap low at 1.4128 held above the 1.4125 swing low, near the 38.2% retrace of the London-NY rally. That 52-pip leg off the 1.4097 London low came on broad USD strength from Fed-hike bets and firm US data; ATR near 3.6 pips reflects thin Asian trade.
Support: 1.4140, 1.4128, 1.4125
Resistance: 1.4149
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4149 NY high breaks the range top
Loss of 1.4140 micro low puts the 1.4128 gap low back in focus
Break below 1.4125 swing low ends the higher lows sequence and the 38.2% hold
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC could materially shift this read
00:16 UTC
Uptrend, early-Asia push into prior high · RSI 61 · price 1.41466
Higher lows from 1.4097, pullback held 1.4125, retesting 1.4149 high.
Rising US yields and Fed-hike bets carried USDCAD from the 1.4097 London low to a 1.4149 prior high in NY. The pullback held the 1.4125 swing low near the 50% fib, close to the late-July highs area. Early Asia has filled the daily-open gap, built an Asia base at 1.4140 and is pressing 1.4149 again, with RSI(14) near 61 and ATR at about 3.4 pips.
Support: 1.41404, 1.41251, 1.40966
Resistance: 1.41492
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4149 prior high extends the higher-high chain from the 1.4097 London low
Rejection at 1.4149 followed by a break of the 1.4140 Asia base would put a double top in play
Loss of the 1.4125 swing low below the 38.2% fib breaks the higher-low sequence
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US durables at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:02 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating below the high · RSI 60 · price 1.41466
Higher lows since the NY pullback, capped by the 1.4149 prior high.
Fed-hike bets and firmer US yields drove the NY rally through the late-July 1.4125/30 area to a 1.4149 prior high. The pullback low at 1.4125 held near the 50% level of the London-NY rally, and price has since built a 1.4136–1.4149 range. Early Asia is grinding back toward the prior high off a 1.4140 asia shelf. RSI(14) is near 60 and ATR is around 3.5 pips.
Support: 1.4140, 1.41357, 1.41251
Resistance: 1.41492
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4149 prior high resumes the higher-high sequence
Loss of the 1.4140 asia shelf returns price to the 1.4136 range base
Break below the 1.4125 pullback low undercuts the higher-low structure
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US durables at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read