Higher highs and higher lows all week; breakout above july highs now being retested.
USDCAD has stepped higher every day from Monday's 1.3993 week open. Each leg came in the NY session, with Asia and London hours spent consolidating along a higher-low trendline. Thursday's NY session cleared the 1.4113 range top and the 1.4125/30 july highs as the 197K claims print, strong new home sales and a 5.085% 7-year auction lifted US yields, printing a week high at 1.4149. RSI(14) has eased from about 80 at that high to about 71, while price holds above EMA(20) near 1.4128 and the july highs area has so far held on the first pullback.
Support: 1.4125, 1.4113, 1.4097
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.4125 july highs would turn Thursday's breakout into a false break and put the 1.4113 range top back in play
A break of the higher-low trendline (near 1.4120) and the 1.4097 swing low ends the week's higher-low sequence and exposes the 38.2% retracement of the week impulse near 1.4088
Acceptance above the 1.4149 week high opens the path to the 1.4200 round number
US durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) on Friday, plus Fed's Williams and Hammack, could materially shift this read
22:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended after breakout · RSI 69 · price 1.41403
Higher lows every session since Monday; late-July high cleared.
USDCAD has ground higher from the weekly open near 1.3990, printing a higher low in each session and holding above EMA(20) on every pullback of the week's impulse. The NY session on Thursday did the heavy lifting, pushing through the 1.4125/30 jul high to a week high at 1.4149 as hawkish Fed speakers, beats in jobless claims and a weak 7-year auction lifted yields. The late-NY dip found demand right at the jul high, and the prior high at 1.4110 and Thursday's London thu low at 1.4097 sit below with the rising trendline. RSI(14) near 69 reflects a stretched run with only shallow retracements.
Support: 1.4125, 1.4110, 1.4097
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.4125 jul high would turn the breakout into a false break and expose the 1.4110 prior high
Break of the rising trendline (~1.4117) and the 1.4097 thu low would end the week's higher-low sequence
Close above the 1.4149 week high opens the path toward the 1.4200 round number
Fri 12:30 UTC US Durable Goods and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations, plus Fed's Williams and Hammack, could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows all week; tight consolidation under the week high after a retest.
USD/CAD is up about 155 pips from the 1.3982 weekly open in a clean higher-high/higher-low sequence. Each leg was driven in the NY session as hawkish Fed talk and US PMI and claims beats pushed yields higher. Thursday's move cleared the late-July highs at 1.4125/30 and printed a 1.4149 week high. The pullback then retested the July highs at 1.4125 alongside EMA(20) (~1.4123), and RSI(14) eased from ~79 to ~69. Price is now compressing beneath a lower high at 1.4146, with the higher-low trendline from Wednesday rising toward the Wed high at 1.4110.
Support: 1.41251, 1.41095, 1.40966
Resistance: 1.4146, 1.41492
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the July highs at 1.4125 and EMA(20) would turn the retest into a false break
Wed high at 1.4110 lines up with the higher-low trendline and the 23.6% level of the week impulse fib; losing it exposes the swing low at 1.4097
A break below the 1.4097 swing low ends this week's higher-low sequence
H1 close above the 1.4146 lower high and the 1.4149 week high resumes the uptrend
Friday US risk: Fed's Williams 09:15 UTC, Durable Goods 12:30 UTC, UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
20:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended near week high · RSI 71 · price 1.41404
Higher highs and higher lows each day; late-July high zone cleared in Thursday NY.
USD/CAD has climbed from Monday's 1.3978 week open to a 1.4149 week high, setting a higher low each day, with the biggest legs coming in the NY session. Hawkish Fedspeak, a beat on jobless claims and a 5.085% 7-year auction drove Thursday's NY push through the 1.4125/30 july high zone. Price is holding just under the week high, well above EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 70 and overbought. Pullbacks have respected the higher-lows trendline, now near 1.4110, above the thu low at 1.4097.
Support: 1.4125, 1.4097, 1.4057
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.4125 july high would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the higher-lows trendline and the 1.4097 thu low would break this week's higher-low sequence
Hold above the 1.4149 week high opens the path toward the 1.4200 round number
A slide below the 1.4057 wed low would retrace most of the week's impulse
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and US durable goods (12:30 UTC) Friday could materially shift this read given crowded hike pricing
19:02 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into week high · RSI 75 · price 1.4143
Higher lows each day; July high broken and retested.
USD/CAD has set a higher low every day since Monday's 1.3982 open, riding a rising trendline. Thursday's leg started from the 1.4097 thu base during London and extended into the NY session after the US jobless-claims beat added to the Fed-hike repricing. Price cleared the late-July high at 1.4125, and the NY-hours dip held that level on the retest. It now sits just below the 1.4149 week high with RSI(14) near 75, in overbought territory.
Support: 1.4125, 1.4097, 1.4057
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.4125 july high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the rising trendline and the 1.4097 thu base breaks the higher-low sequence toward the 1.4057 wed low
A new push above the 1.4149 week high on lower RSI would mark bearish rsi divergence; acceptance above opens the 1.4200 round number
Fri Williams 09:15 UTC, US durables 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
18:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended into overbought · RSI 73 · price 1.4143
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday; breakout above late-July high now retested.
USDCAD has climbed about 170 pips from Monday's 1.3978 weekly open, with every broker day printing a higher low. Tuesday's and Wednesday's gains ran through the London-NY transition, and Thursday's NY session drove the break above the 1.4125/30 july high after the US claims beat, as surging yields outweighed firmer oil. The 1.4125 dip after the 1.4149 week high held as a retest, price sits above EMA(20) near 1.4122, and RSI(14) is in the low 70s with no bearish divergence against Wednesday's high yet.
Support: 1.4125, 1.4100, 1.4087
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 1.4125 (july high) would turn the breakout into a false break
A slip under the higher-lows trendline (~1.4120) and the 1.4100 thu base would mark the first failed pullback of the week
Loss of 1.4087 (thu low) breaks the higher-low sequence; the week impulse 38.2% sits near 1.4084
Acceptance above the 1.4149 week high exposes the 1.4200 round number
Fri US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC), UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) and Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) could materially shift this read
17:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended but intact · RSI 71 · price 1.41348
Higher lows every session since Sunday's open; breakout above late-July highs being retested.
USD/CAD has printed a higher low in every session since Sunday's 1.3978 open, adding roughly 170 pips on the week as US yields and Fed-hike pricing lifted the dollar. Most of the gains came in NY hours: Wednesday's PMI beats, then today's firm claims and new home sales. Those releases broke Thursday's 1.4097–1.4113 London range and the late-July highs, tagging a 1.4149 week high. The pullback that followed found demand at the july high near 1.4125. RSI(14) is near 71 and price holds well above EMA(20), which pullbacks have not revisited since the morning break.
Support: 1.4125, 1.4097, 1.4084
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.4125 july high would turn today's breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.4097 range low and the higher-lows trendline would break the week's sequence of higher lows
A clean close above the 1.4149 week high opens the 1.4200 psych level; renewed rejection there shifts the read toward exhaustion
38.2% fib of the week impulse at 1.4084 sits beneath the range low as deeper retracement support
Fri 12:30 UTC US durables/core capex and 14:00 UTC UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and Hammack (18:00 UTC) on Friday
USDCAD has climbed about 165 pips from Monday's 1.3982 weekly open, printing higher lows each day as Wednesday's US PMI beats and 5% Treasury yields widened the rate gap. The latest leg ran through the 1.4110 prior high and the late-July 1.4130 area into the NY session after today's sub-200K claims print, tagging a 1.4149 day high. RSI(14) near 76 marks overbought conditions, and price sits well above an EMA(20) that pullbacks have been finding all week.
Support: 1.4110, 1.4097
Resistance: 1.4149, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.4110 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the higher-low trendline from Wednesday's low, near 1.4105, and the 1.4097 thursday low would break the week's stair-step structure
Acceptance above the 1.4149 day high opens the path toward the 1.4200 round number
Fri US durables, UoM inflation expectations and Fed's Williams/Hammack could materially shift this read
Pullback toward the 38.2% level of the week impulse fib near 1.4084 would test the dominant move
15:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended · RSI 76 · price 1.41371
Higher highs and higher lows all week; breakout above Thursday's range.
USDCAD has stepped up in higher highs and higher lows from the 1.3978 weekly low at Sunday's open, gaining about 160 pips. The NY session drove the main legs on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday as US yields pushed through 5% and October Fed hike odds firmed. Thursday's 1.4097–1.4113 Asia/London range broke late in London and extended after the US claims and mixed Canadian retail sales prints to a fresh week high at 1.4141. Price holds about 25 pips above EMA(20), which sits at the range top, and RSI(14) near 76 is overbought, with the Wed low and the rising higher-low trendline marking the week's structure.
Support: 1.4113, 1.4097, 1.4078
Resistance: 1.4141, 1.4200
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 1.4113 range top, where EMA(20) also sits, would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the higher-low trendline and the 1.4097 range low would end the week's higher-low sequence; the Wed low at 1.4078 lines up with the 38.2% fib of the week impulse
Acceptance above the 1.4141 week high opens the path to the 1.4200 round number
Fri US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC), plus Williams and Hammack remarks, could materially shift this read via yields
Higher lows every day since Monday; range top broken in NY.
USDCAD has climbed about 160 pips from Monday's 1.3978 open, printing a higher low each day with the NY session driving most of the gains, as US yields above 5% and roughly 70% October Fed hike odds keep the dollar bid. Today's London-hours range top at 1.4113 gave way after the 12:30 UTC US claims beat and the soft Canada retail ex-autos print, with the hourly push tagging a 1.4141 week high and clearing the late-July high near 1.4130. RSI(14) is near 71 and price is stretched about 20 pips above EMA(20) near 1.4110.
Support: 1.4130, 1.4113, 1.4097
Resistance: 1.4141, 1.4150
What it said to watch
An hourly close back below the 1.4130 july high and 1.4113 range top would mark the breakout as a false break
A break of the rising higher-low trendline and the 1.4097 swing low would end the week's higher-low sequence
A sustained move through the 1.4141 week high exposes the 1.4150 round number
Pullback depth toward the 38.2% fib near 1.4079 would show how the impulse is being corrected
Today's New Home Sales and Trump-Xi headlines, then Friday's Durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations, could materially shift this read
Stepwise higher highs and higher lows since Monday; fresh week high below the 1.4130 july high.
USDCAD has printed a higher low every session since Monday's midday dip to 1.3996. NY sessions did most of the work in the ~145-pip climb from the 1.3978 weekly open low, with Tuesday's rally and Wednesday's leg after the US PMI beats both starting in NY. On Thursday, the London dip held at the 1.4097 london low, then the jobless claims beat lifted price through the 1.4113 asia high to a new week high at 1.4124, just below the 1.4130 july high; price sits above a rising EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 69.
Support: 1.4113, 1.4097, 1.4057
Resistance: 1.4124, 1.4130
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.4130 july high would clear the late-July resistance cluster and extend the move beyond the 1.4124 week high
Slipping back below the 1.4113 asia high would return price to Thursday's range; a break of the higher-low trendline near 1.4104 and the 1.4097 london low would end the session-by-session higher-low sequence
A slide through the 38.2% fib of the week low–high move (~1.4068) and the 1.4057 wed low would mark a deeper retracement of the week's impulse
Fed's Paulson (13:00 UTC) and US New Home Sales (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read via Fed October hike pricing
12:02 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows each day · RSI 64 · price 1.41162
Stair-step higher highs and higher lows, breaking out of Thursday's session range.
USDCAD has set higher lows every day since the 1.3978 week low at Monday's open. NY sessions drove most of the ~140-pip advance, including Wednesday's leg on the blowout US PMIs and Treasury yields through 5%. Thursday's Asia/London session range of 1.4097–1.4113 gave way this morning to a new week high at 1.4119, with RSI(14) in the mid-60s, price above EMA(20) and EMA(50), and pullbacks respecting the rising higher-lows trendline all week.
Support: 1.4113, 1.4097, 1.4065
Resistance: 1.4119, 1.4150
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims and Canada Retail Sales, both at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read.
Holding the 1.4113 prior high keeps the breakout intact; an H1 close back below the 1.4097 session low would mark a false break.
An H1 close below the higher-lows trendline and the 38.2% fib of the week impulse at 1.4065 would be the first break in this week's structure.
A close above the 1.4119 week high opens the path toward the 1.4150 round number.
Higher lows since Monday, breakout from Thursday's tight range.
USDCAD has climbed about 139 pips from the 1.3978 week open on a series of higher lows. The London and NY sessions on Tuesday and Wednesday did most of the work as blowout US PMIs and 5%+ yields widened the Fed-BoC gap, with the Wed low at 1.4078 marking the last pullback. Thursday's Asian and early London trade held a tight band above the 1.4100 round number before the 10:00 UTC bar printed a new week high at 1.4117. RSI(14) sits near 64 and price is holding above EMA(20).
Support: 1.4100, 1.40966, 1.40775
Resistance: 1.41174, 1.4125
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales and US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, plus Hammack/Paulson shortly after, could materially shift this read
H1 close back below the 1.4100 round number would mark the push to the week high as a false break
Loss of Thursday's London session low at 1.4097 would put the higher-low line under test
Break below the Wed low at 1.4078 would end the higher-low sequence and open the 38.2% retracement of the week impulse near 1.4064
Scotiabank's cited 1.4125 target (scotia tgt) is the next reference above the week high
Higher lows since Monday open, now a tight consolidation under the week high.
USD/CAD has climbed about 135 pips of week impulse, from the 1.3978 weekly open to the 1.4113 week high, printing higher lows through every session. Tuesday's London push and Wednesday's NY leg on the blowout US PMIs did most of the work. Thursday has compressed into a 15-pip consolidation between the 1.4097 range low and the week high, with price just above EMA(20), RSI(14) cooling to the mid-50s and trade slipping beneath the rising line off Tuesday's low.
Support: 1.4097, 1.4091, 1.4062
Resistance: 1.4113, 1.4150
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4097 range low, then the 1.4091 swing low, would break the week's higher-low sequence
Clearance of the 1.4113 week high puts the 1.4150 round number in view
Canada Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims, both at 12:30 UTC today, could materially shift this read
A pullback that holds the 38.2% fib of the week impulse near 1.4062 keeps the uptrend structure intact
USDCAD has climbed from the 1.3978 weekly open to a 1.4113 week high. Each leg of the rally was driven in the NY session, and the largest extension came after Wednesday's US PMI beat lifted Fed hike odds. Since Wednesday's NY close, price has compressed into a roughly 15-pip band just under the week high. It is holding above EMA(20) and the higher-low trendline while RSI(14) cools to the high 50s, a sign momentum is fading rather than reversing.
Support: 1.4097, 1.4087, 1.4057
Resistance: 1.4113, 1.4150
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims and Canada Retail Sales both hit at 12:30 UTC today, with Fedspeak (Hammack, Paulson) following; together they could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 1.4113 week high ends the compression and exposes the 1.4150 round number
Loss of the 1.4097 london low and the higher-low trendline would put the 1.4087 day low in focus
Failure to hold the 1.4057 swing low, near 38.2% of the week's rally, breaks the higher-low sequence
Higher lows since Monday, tight consolidation under 1.4113.
USD/CAD opened the week at 1.3982 and has printed a higher low each day along a rising trendline. The key legs came in Tuesday's London-to-NY run to 1.4083 and in Wednesday's NY session, when the US PMI beats and a weak 5y auction carried price through 1.4100. Since then it has held a narrow band beneath the 1.4113 week high, with EMA(20) flattening near 1.4100 and RSI(14) cooling into the high 50s. The consolidation sits above Wednesday's 1.4078 swing low and well clear of the 38.2% fib of the weekly move at 1.4062.
Support: 1.4100, 1.40775, 1.40617
Resistance: 1.41132, 1.4150
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4113 week high extends the uptrend toward the 1.4150 round number
Loss of EMA(20) and the rising trendline near 1.4100 turns the consolidation into a pullback
Failure to hold the 1.4078 swing low exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.4062
Canada Retail Sales and US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and Hammack at 12:50 UTC are USD-side risk for the range
The pair has climbed about 135 pips from the 1.3978 weekly open, with the NY session driving the biggest legs. That includes Wednesday's PMI-driven push to 1.4110 as October Fed-hike pricing widened rate spreads against CAD. Asia printed only a marginal new week high at 1.4113 before flattening onto the ema20 near 1.4100 and the rising trendline from Monday's 1.3996 low. RSI(14) is making lower highs on each push, so the week's impulse is losing thrust. The 38.2% retracement at 1.4062 sits below the day low at 1.4087 and the Wednesday london low at 1.4078.
Support: 1.4100, 1.40868, 1.40775
Resistance: 1.41132, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC also in focus
H1 close below the 1.4087 day low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low sequence, exposing the 1.4078 london low
Close above the 1.4113 week high resumes the uptrend, with 1.4150 psych the next round figure
A slide toward the 38.2% of the week's impulse near 1.4062 would turn the stall into a deeper pullback
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday; now a tight consolidation 1.4090–1.4113 just above 1.4100.
USD/CAD has climbed steadily from the 1.3982 weekly open. The strongest leg came in Tuesday's NY session, and Wednesday's US PMI beats pushed price through the 1.4100 round number. Since then the rally has stalled below the 1.4113 week high and slipped under the rising trendline drawn from Monday's lows. Price is holding just above EMA(20) in a narrowing range, while RSI(14) prints lower peaks against marginal new highs, a bearish divergence. The Wed NY low at 1.4091 and the 1.4078 swing low mark the base of the consolidation.
Support: 1.4100, 1.40907, 1.40775
Resistance: 1.41132, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales and US Initial Jobless Claims both land at 12:30 UTC today; a joint surprise could break the 1.4090–1.4113 range
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC could shift October hike pricing and USD tone during the London session
H1 close above the 1.4113 week high resumes the uptrend sequence, with the 1.4150 psych level next
Failure to hold the 1.4100 round number and the 1.4091 Wed NY low turns the consolidation into a pullback
Break of the 1.4078 swing low exposes the 38.2% fib of the week's rally near 1.4062
Higher lows since Monday, now compressing below week high.
USD/CAD has printed a higher low in every session since the 1.3982 weekly open. The strongest legs came through London and NY on Tuesday, and again on Wednesday when the US PMI beat and hawkish Fed repricing lifted the pair through 1.4100. Since Wednesday's NY session the advance has stalled into a tight consolidation between the 1.4087 swing low and the 1.4113 week high. Price is hugging EMA(20), and RSI(14) has eased to the mid-50s from Tuesday's upper-60s readings, so the pair is pausing within the uptrend rather than rolling over.
Support: 1.4087, 1.4057, 1.3982
Resistance: 1.4113, 1.4150
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4113 week high ends the consolidation and opens the 1.4150 round number
Break of the 1.4087 swing low and the higher-lows trendline turns the read to a deeper pullback toward the 1.4057 wed low
Canada Retail Sales and US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, after Williams at 08:10 UTC, could materially shift this read
Loss of the wed low exposes the 38.2% retracement of the week impulse near 1.4062 and weakens the higher-low sequence toward the weekly open
04:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum slowing near week high · RSI 60 · price 1.41061
Higher lows since Monday; compressing below week high.
USD/CAD has printed higher lows since Monday's NY-open dip to 1.3996. Tuesday's London-NY sessions carried the pair from 1.4025 to 1.4083, and Wednesday's US PMI beat and hawkish Fed pricing extended the week's impulse to a 1.4113 week high in Asia today. Since Wednesday's NY session, the advance has compressed into a 1.4087–1.4113 band that holds above the EMA(20)/psych 1.4100 area, while RSI(14) near 60 on a higher price high shows bearish divergence against Tuesday's stronger reading.
Support: 1.4100, 1.40868, 1.40775
Resistance: 1.41132, 1.4125
What it said to watch
H1 close below the higher-lows trendline and the 1.4087 swing low breaks the sequence of higher lows
A sustained break of the 1.4113 week high exposes 1.4125, the level flagged as the Scotiabank target
Loss of the 1.4078 Wed low opens the 38.2% retracement of the week's impulse near 1.4062
Canada Retail Sales and US Initial Jobless Claims, both at 12:30 UTC today, plus Fed speakers, could materially shift this read
Higher lows every session since Monday; tight consolidation under week high.
USDCAD has climbed about 130 pips from Monday's 1.3982 weekly open, with a higher low in each session. The main legs came in NY hours: late Tuesday to 1.4083, then Wednesday's post-PMI push to 1.4110 as the hot US flash PMIs fed Fed-BoC divergence. Since then price has compressed between the 1.4087 asia low and the 1.4113 week high, hovering just above EMA(20) with RSI(14) cooled to the mid-50s, and the 1.4100 round figure is acting as a pivot.
Support: 1.4097, 1.4087, 1.4078
Resistance: 1.4113, 1.4125
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales and US Initial Jobless Claims, both at 12:30 UTC today, could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 1.4087 asia low and the higher-low trendline breaks the weekly sequence, exposing the 1.4078 double low
H1 close above the 1.4113 week high opens the 1.4125 area flagged as the Scotia tgt
Repeated closes below EMA20 near 1.4097 would signal the consolidation is turning into a deeper pullback
Higher lows every day since Monday, pressing week high.
USD/CAD has printed higher lows every day since Monday's 1.3978 open. The NY sessions on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday drove the main legs as hot US PMIs and October Fed hike repricing kept USD bid, while CAD ignored oil back above $90. In the Asia session price is holding above the psych/ema20 zone at 1.4100 and pressing the 1.4112 week high, with RSI(14) near 67 and short of overbought.
Support: 1.4100, 1.40868, 1.4061
Resistance: 1.4112, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims, both at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
An H1 close above the 1.4112 week high opens 1.4125, then the 1.4150 round number
A close back below the 1.4100 psych/ema20 zone and the 1.4087 thu low would break the higher-lows trendline and point to consolidation
Failure to hold the fib 38.2 near 1.4061 (1.4050/60 area) would cut into the week's impulse
Williams at 08:10 UTC and Hammack at 12:50 UTC on October hike odds
Higher lows each day since Monday; compressing just above 1.4100.
USDCAD has climbed from 1.3978 at Monday's open to a 1.4112 week high. It has printed higher lows every day along a rising lows trendline, while pullbacks keep finding ema20. Tuesday's London-to-NY leg did the heavy lifting, and Wednesday's US PMI beat and hawkish Fedspeak pushed price through 1.4100 during NY hours, with firm oil giving CAD no support. Since then, gains above 1.4100 have been grinding: RSI(14) at 61 sits below Tuesday's readings despite the higher high, a bearish divergence, and ATR(14) has narrowed to ~11 pips.
Support: 1.4097, 1.4078, 1.4057
Resistance: 1.4112, 1.4150
What it said to watch
H1 close below the rising lows trendline and the 1.4078 swing low would break the week's higher-low sequence
Sustained trade above the 1.4112 week high opens the path toward the 1.4150 round number
A deeper pullback toward the wed low at 1.4057 would test the 38.2% retracement of the weekly impulse
Canada Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC today, plus Williams at 08:10 UTC, could materially shift this read
Stair-step higher lows each session since Monday, now pressing the week high.
USDCAD has climbed about 130 pips from Monday's 1.3982 weekly open. Each session printed a higher daily low: 1.4025 Tuesday, the Wed low at 1.4057, and the 1.4087 rollover low overnight. Tuesday's leg ran from the London open into NY. Wednesday's push through 1.4100 came in NY hours after the US PMI beat, with rate spreads rather than oil (above $90) setting the tone for CAD. Price is holding just above ema20 near 1.4096 with RSI(14) near 60, so it is not overbought despite trading at the week high of 1.4110.
Support: 1.4096, 1.40868, 1.40571
Resistance: 1.41095
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 1.4087 rollover low breaks the higher lows sequence and exposes the Wed low at 1.4057, near the 38.2% of the Mon-Wed impulse
A sustained hold above the 1.4110 week high extends the uptrend toward the 1.4125 area cited in the CAD digest
Pullbacks finding ema20 near 1.4096 keep the higher lows trendline intact
Canada Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims, both at 12:30 UTC Thursday, could materially shift this read