21:06 UTC
Recovery uptrend off August low, momentum firm · RSI 66 · price 1.40326
Higher highs and higher lows since 21 Aug; price back above EMA20 and EMA50.
Five straight weeks of recovery off the 1.3732 swing low of 21 Aug has taken price back through the 1.4000 psych level and above EMA50, with the last close at 1.4033 the highest since early August — the hawkish Fed versus a still-hesitant BoC has widened front-end spreads while crude slid. Structure is a clean chain of higher highs and higher lows, and that advance is now pressing the 1.4080 psych area, with the 1.4126 prior high the next shelf and the 1.4248 quarter high from late June capping the wider range. RSI(14) near 66 is firm without being overbought, while daily ranges have compressed to roughly 60 pips.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3732
Resistance: 1.4080, 1.4126, 1.4248
What it said to watch
- 1.4080 psych area — zone to monitor for rejection or a clean break toward the 1.4126 prior high
- A daily close back below 1.4000 psych and EMA50 would break the five-week higher-low chain
- Canada Retail Sales Thu 24 Sep (f/c -0.8%) and Wed's US flash PMIs are the week's main event risk to this read
- A sustained crude rebound is the main structural threat to the advance from the 1.3732 swing low