HH/HL chain into NY, then shallow pullback and a flat post-NY coil.
USDCAD ground higher through London and NY from the 1.40245 Asia low to a 1.40835 day high — fresh highs since early August, with softer crude and the wide US-Canada front-end gap doing the work — before fading to the 1.40571 session low late in NY. Price is now pinned in a 1.4064–1.4066 coil in thin post-NY hours, sitting just above the 38.2% retracement of that leg, RSI(14) back at 51 and ATR(14) near 3 pips.
Support: 1.40601, 1.40571, 1.4050
Resistance: 1.40677, 1.40835
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.40677 spike high is the first condition for resuming the intraday advance toward the 1.40835 day high
Loss of the 1.40601 swing low and 1.40571 session low would break the retracement floor and expose the 1.40500 psych mark
Rising support off the 1.40245 low was already lost during the NY fade — the coil is the retest of that break
US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC, then Canada retail sales Thu 12:30 UTC, are the events capable of resetting this range
Higher-high sequence stalled below 1.40835, now a tight late-session range.
The NY grind higher off 1.40245 topped out at the session high 1.40835 around 17:45 UTC and rejected, unwinding to 1.40571 into the close — CAD stayed heavy on soft crude and the wide US-Canada front-end spread. Thin Asia open has price pinned in a 6-pip band under the asia high 1.40677, ATR(14) down to ~4 pips, RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 1.40571, 1.40446
Resistance: 1.40677, 1.40835
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the asia high 1.40677 puts the session high 1.40835 back in range
Loss of the session low 1.40571 breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.40446 swing low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the next scheduled catalyst and can reset this range
23:16 UTC
Uptrend, momentum flat in Asia · RSI 52 · price 1.40655
Higher highs into NY, now range-bound below 1.40835.
London-NY hours carried USDCAD from the 1.40245 base to a fresh 1.40835 ny high before rejection there left a 25-pip drift back, with weak crude and the hawkish-Fed USD bid still the driver. Early Asia is coiling in a 1.40571-1.40677 band on thin volume, price pinned to EMA20 and RSI(14) back to neutral near 51.
Support: 1.40571, 1.40446, 1.40273
Resistance: 1.40677, 1.40724, 1.40835
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.40677 asia high re-opens the 1.40724 prior high and the 1.40835 ny high
Loss of the 1.40571 session low breaks the rising support line and sets the first lower-low of the move
US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read once liquidity returns
23:04 UTC
Intraday uptrend, momentum flat after NY pullback · RSI 48 · price 1.40655
Higher highs through London-NY, now consolidating below the session high.
USDCAD ground higher all through London and NY off the 1.40245 Asian low to a session high of 1.40835, with the CAD offered on a fifth down day in crude and a firm hawkish-Fed dollar bid. The NY afternoon rejection there dragged price back to the 1.40571 session low; the last hours of thin post-NY trade have it pinned at 1.4065, just above EMA20, RSI(14) back to neutral near 48 and ATR(14) compressed to ~4.6 pips.
Support: 1.40601, 1.40571
Resistance: 1.40707, 1.40835
What it said to watch
Reclaiming the 1.40707 minor pivot is the first condition for another attempt at the 1.40835 session high
Loss of the 1.40571 session low would break the chain of higher lows built since the London low
Failure to hold the 1.40601 swing low shifts the read from consolidation to a deeper retracement of the NY rally
US flash PMIs later Wednesday (13:45 UTC) are the next scheduled event able to reprice this range
HH/HL chain into 1.40835, now ranging 1.40571-1.40677.
London-into-NY drove a clean leg from the 24h low at 1.40245 to a day high of 1.40835 — CAD offered on softer crude and the wide US-Canada front-end spread — before the move faded through the NY afternoon. Post-NY tape is thin, with a small gap down at rollover and price now chopping between the 1.40571 session low and 1.40677 swing high, RSI(14) back to neutral around 46 and ATR ~4.6 pips.
Support: 1.40571, 1.40455, 1.40245
Resistance: 1.40677, 1.40835
What it said to watch
Close below 1.40571 breaks the rising support off the 24h low and confirms a lower-low
Reclaim of the 1.40677 swing high reopens the 1.40835 day high
Thin liquidity into the Asia handover keeps ranges compressed until London
US flash PMIs (Wed 13:45 UTC) and Canada Retail Sales (Thu 12:30 UTC) are the event risks that would reset this range
22:31 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalled in the late-NY drift · RSI 45 · price 1.40648
Higher highs from the London low, then a lower-high sequence since the 1.40835 print.
Price ground up ~59 pips off the 1.40245 London-open low to a fresh 1.40835 NY high — the loonie stripped of oil support as WTI slid on Hormuz reopening headlines — then rejected there and bled back into a 1.40571–1.40680 late-session band. Thin post-NY-close bars (volume collapsing) produced a small gap lower before the last candle snapped back to the recent high at 1.40677; price sits marginally above the ema20 with RSI(14) mid-40s.
Support: 1.4064, 1.40571, 1.4050
Resistance: 1.40677, 1.40835
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40677 recent high reopens the path to the 1.40835 ny high
Loss of the 1.40571 session low confirms a lower low into Asia hours, with 1.40500 psych the next reference
Liquidity is thin until the Asia session proper — early prints can overshoot the session range on ~5 pip ATR
US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC are the week's main event risk and could reset this intraday structure
Higher highs into 1.4083, then a shallow late-NY drift lower holding above rising support.
USDCAD ran from the 1.40245 london low to a 1.40835 session high by 17:30 UTC — fresh highs since early August as the five-day crude slide on Hormuz reopening talk stripped CAD of commodity support against a broadly bid USD. Rejection under the 1.4080 psych area then produced a 26-pip drift into the 1.40571 session low, with the final thin 22:00 bar snapping back to 1.40672, just above the ema20. RSI(14) neutral at 49, ATR(14) only ~4 pips — range compression into the roll.
Support: 1.40571, 1.4064, 1.40245
Resistance: 1.4080, 1.40835
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40835 would clear the 1.4080 psych area and extend the intraday uptrend
Loss of the 1.40571 session low breaks the rising support chain off the london low
US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC are the week's only high-impact prints and could reset this range
22:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalled after NY fade · RSI 49 · price 1.40672
Higher highs into 1.40835 then lower highs; now compressing 1.40571–1.40680.
USDCAD ground higher through London and NY to a session high of 1.40835 — fresh multi-week territory as a five-day oil slide and hawkish Fed repricing kept CAD offered — before rejecting just under the 1.4080 psych barrier and fading to 1.40571 into the NY close. The last bar has snapped back to 1.40672 on very thin early-Asia volume, leaving price pinned between EMA20 and the session low with RSI(14) flat near 49.
Support: 1.40571, 1.40455
Resistance: 1.4080, 1.40835
What it said to watch
A 15m close above 1.40835 would resume the higher-high sequence and put the 1.4080 psych area behind price
Loss of 1.40571 confirms a lower low and shifts the read to corrective within the 24h range
Thin early-Asia liquidity means the last bar's 10-pip pop can be retraced without structural meaning; ATR(14) only ~5 pips
US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC are the events that could materially reset this range
Lower highs since the NY peak, price pinned to EMA50.
London-into-NY grind lifted USDCAD from the 1.40245 asia low to a 1.40835 NY high — fresh highs since early August on weak crude and the wide US-Canada front-end spread — before the move stalled and rolled over into a chain of lower highs. Last four hours are corrective and thin: rollover gapped price down to 1.40594, RSI(14) ~34, and spot is sitting on EMA50 with EMA20 at 1.4064 overhead; ATR(14) just 4.7 pips.
Support: 1.40579, 1.40476, 1.40245
Resistance: 1.40657, 1.40766, 1.40835
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.40579 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.40476 prior pivot
Reclaim of the 1.40657 lower high would put the 1.40766 prior high and 1.40835 ny high back in play
Volumes in the last three bars are negligible — levels set in this stretch are low-conviction until Asia hours fill in
US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 GMT plus Fed's Barr at 14:05 are the next volatility triggers for this read
21:32 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling into the close · RSI 45 · price 1.40594
Higher highs/higher lows, corrective pullback from session high.
USD/CAD ground higher through London and the NY morning to a session high of 1.40835 — soft crude and the wide US-Canada front-end gap doing the work — then was rejected there in the NY afternoon and faded back under the EMA20 near 1.4064. Last three hours have coiled in a 1.40587–1.40657 consolidation with the pullback capped below the prior high and volume drying up at the close; RSI(14) mid-40s, ATR(14) about 5 pips.
Support: 1.40587, 1.40461
Resistance: 1.40657, 1.40765, 1.40835
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.40657 prior high would put the 1.40765 swing high and 1.40835 session high back in play
Close below the 1.40587 session low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes 1.40461 swing low
US flash Services/Manufacturing PMIs at 13:45 GMT Wed, with Fed's Barr at 14:05, can reset this intraday range
Lower highs off 1.40835, HH/HL chain broken; late-NY compression.
NY session drove USD/CAD to a 1.40835 session high before fading, with the last five hours compressed between the 1.40680 range top and the 1.40600 area and price now closing under EMA20. The pullback holds just above the 38.2% retrace of the London-NY leg, still sitting on the ema50; the up-leg itself came with crude slipping and the wide US-Canada front-end spread, per the digest. ATR(14) is thin at ~4.6 pips and the final bar printed on post-NY-close liquidity.
Support: 1.40575, 1.4054, 1.40461
Resistance: 1.4068, 1.40835
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.40680 range top would re-open 1.40835 session high
Losing 1.40575 ema50 exposes the 50% fib at 1.40540, then the 1.40461 swing low
Final-bar volume of 48 is post-NY-close thin — early Asia hours can distort the micro range
US flash S&P Global PMIs Wed 13:45 GMT is the week's main event risk for this pair
Higher highs off the asian low, now consolidating under the session high.
NY session drove price to a session high at 1.40835 — fresh highs since early August, with slumping crude and the wide US-Canada front-end gap keeping CAD offered — before fading and closing the day pinned under the ema20 around 1.40680. Last four hours have been a flat drift with the session low at 1.40601 holding; RSI(14) near 35 and ATR(14) only ~5 pips, so ranges are compressed into the post-NY lull.
Support: 1.40601, 1.40446, 1.40245
Resistance: 1.4068, 1.40835
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.40601 session low confirms a lower low after the fade from 1.40835
Reclaim of the ema20 near 1.40680 puts the session high back in play
Loss of the 1.40446 swing low and the rising support off the intraday lows would expose the 1.40245 asian low
US flash S&P Global PMIs Wed 13:45 GMT are the first scheduled risk that could reprice this range
HH/HL chain through NY, now consolidating below session high.
NY session drove a clean HH/HL grind off the 1.40245 Asian-range low to 1.40835 — highest since early August — on the wide US-Canada front-end spread and softer crude; the move was rejected there and price has spent the last three hours ranging 1.40601–1.40700 into the late-NY close. RSI(14) back at 40 with price pinned just under the 1.40672 ema20, ATR(14) about 5.5 pips so ranges are thin.
Support: 1.40601, 1.40526, 1.40446
Resistance: 1.40672, 1.4078, 1.40835
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.40672 ema20 and a close above 1.40780 prior high would put the 1.40835 session high back in play
Loss of the 1.40601 session low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.40526 swing low
US flash S&P Global PMIs Wed 13:45 GMT plus Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT are the next scheduled catalysts capable of breaking this range
Crude/Hormuz headlines remain the fastest route to a reversal of the NY leg
20:31 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling late NY · RSI 43 · price 1.40648
Higher highs into 1.40835, then lower highs and a flat 1.40600–1.40680 late-session range.
USDCAD ground higher through London and the first half of NY to a session high of 1.40835 before rejection there, and price has since drifted into a tight 1.40600–1.40680 band with RSI(14) back to 43 and price under EMA20 but still above EMA50. The grind up matched the CAD digest's read — slumping crude and a wide US-Canada front-end spread — but late-NY liquidity has flattened the move, ATR(14) just 5.5 pips.
Support: 1.40601, 1.40446
Resistance: 1.40745, 1.40835
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40601 session low confirms a lower low and breaks the late-session range
Reclaim of the 1.40745 lower high puts the 1.40835 session high back in play
US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 GMT and Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT could materially reset this read
20:16 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading late NY · RSI 40 · price 1.40637
HH/HL chain through NY, now pulling back from session high.
USDCAD ground higher all through the NY session — from the 1.40245 session low to a 1.40835 session high — as softer crude kept the Loonie unsupported, then met rejection there and has drifted back under the EMA20 near 1.4069. Last two hours are flat consolidation between 1.40601 and 1.40690 with RSI(14) back near 40, i.e. the pullback is holding above the prior NY swing low so far.
Support: 1.40601, 1.40446, 1.40245
Resistance: 1.4069, 1.40835
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.4069 ema20 and a close above 1.40835 session high would resume the NY uptrend
Loss of 1.40601 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes 1.40446 ny swing low
US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 GMT are the next material catalyst for this range
20:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling into late NY · RSI 41 · price 1.40637
Higher highs into 1.40835, now a lower-high sequence off the session top.
London-NY leg carried USDCAD from the 1.40245 Asia low to a session high of 1.40835 — the soft crude / wide US-Canada spread story — before supply capped price at the 1.40800 psych area and faded it back under the ema20 at 1.40693. Last six bars are compressing between 1.40601 and 1.40677 with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR(14) around 6 pips; late-NY consolidation, no fresh extension.
Support: 1.40601, 1.40446, 1.4025
Resistance: 1.40693, 1.4080, 1.40835
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the ema20 at 1.40693 would re-open the 1.40800 psych / 1.40835 session high area
A close below the 1.40601 recent low confirms a lower-low and puts the 1.40446 swing low in play
US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 GMT could materially shift this intraday read
19:46 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling late NY · RSI 38 · price 1.40647
Higher highs into 1.40835, now sideways below EMA20.
NY session pushed the grind higher to a session high of 1.40835 before rejection there, and price has since coiled in a 1.40640–1.40700 band with RSI(14) back near 38 and spot slipping under EMA20. The bid stayed intact through the session with crude soft on Hormuz reopening headlines and a rates-driven USD, but the last eight bars show no directional follow-through, ATR compressed to ~6 pips.
Support: 1.4064, 1.40455, 1.40245
Resistance: 1.40766, 1.40835
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.40640 session floor exposes the 1.40455 swing low
Reclaim of the 1.40766 lower high puts the 1.40835 session high back in play
Break of the rising lows trendline from 1.40245 invalidates the intraday uptrend read
US flash S&P Global PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC plus Fed's Barr could reset this range
19:31 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling late NY · RSI 44 · price 1.40666
Higher highs into 1.40835, now consolidating below the session high.
London-NY hours drove a clean HH/HL grind from 1.40245 to a session high of 1.40835 — hawkish Fed pricing plus a soft crude tape keeping CAD offered — before rejection there stalled the move. Last six bars are flat-lining in a 1.40644-1.40707 box with price back under EMA20 and RSI(14) cooling to ~44; ATR(14) only ~6 pips, so late-session ranges are thin.
Support: 1.40644, 1.40615
Resistance: 1.40707, 1.40835
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.40644 and then the 1.40615 swing low would break the intraday HL chain
Reclaim of the 1.40707 ema20 and a push through the 1.40835 session high resumes the uptrend
US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr after could materially shift this read
Higher highs/higher lows, pullback into EMA20 after session-high rejection.
London and NY drove a clean break of the 1.4025–1.4043 Asian range, peaking at 1.40835 before rejection trimmed the leg back to the EMA20 near 1.4066 — consistent with soft crude on Hormuz reopening talk and a wide US-Canada front-end spread. RSI(14) has cooled from the low-70s at the high to 54, and the last four bars are compressing above the 1.40644 swing low with ATR at ~6 pips.
Support: 1.40644, 1.40615, 1.40446
Resistance: 1.40835, 1.4080
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40615 prior low breaks the higher-low chain built since the ny low at 1.40446
Reclaim of 1.40800 psych and the 1.40835 session high would resume the NY leg
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT is the next scheduled CAD risk event
19:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling late NY · RSI 45 · price 1.40665
HH/HL chain intact, now consolidating below session high.
NY session drove a clean leg from 1.40245 to a session high at 1.40835 — fresh highs since early August as sliding WTI on Hormuz reopening talk stripped CAD of commodity support — then rejected there and faded 19 pips. Last four bars are pinned in a tight 1.40644–1.40707 range with RSI(14) back to 45 and price slipping just under EMA20; ATR(14) is only ~6 pips, so late-session ranges are compressing.
Support: 1.40644, 1.40615
Resistance: 1.40707, 1.40835
What it said to watch
A 15m close back above 1.40707 range top re-opens the path to the 1.40835 session high
Loss of 1.40644 range low and then the 1.40615 swing low breaks the rising-lows sequence off 1.40273
Asia hours likely stay thin; US flash PMIs later Wednesday are the next scheduled catalyst that could reset this range
18:46 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling off session high · RSI 49 · price 1.40648
HH/HL chain intact but first lower high printed after rejection at session high.
Grinding uptrend through London and NY on soft crude and Hormuz de-escalation talk stripping CAD of commodity support; price tagged a session high at 1.40835 then faded three bars to 1.40648. Rejection there has RSI(14) back near 49 and price slipping under EMA20, still holding the rising support line off the 1.40446 ny low, with ATR(14) about 6.8 pips.
Support: 1.40615, 1.4056, 1.40446
Resistance: 1.4078, 1.40835
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.40615 swing low breaks the intraday higher-low chain
Loss of the 1.4056 micro low exposes the mid-1.4040s and the 1.40446 ny low
Reclaim of the 1.4078 prior high puts the 1.40835 session high back in focus
Liquidity thins into the late-NY close; US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC are the next scheduled catalyst
18:31 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling late NY · RSI 56 · price 1.40685
Higher highs / higher lows off the Asian low, first pullback from session high.
NY hours extended the grind higher, tagging a session high at 1.40835 before fading roughly 15 pips into the last three bars; slumping crude and the wide US-Canada front-end spread remain the backdrop. RSI(14) has cooled to ~56 from the push and price is sitting right on the EMA20 at 1.40668, with the 1.40615 swing low the last higher low in the sequence.
Support: 1.40668, 1.40615, 1.40455
Resistance: 1.40835, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40615 breaks the higher-low chain built off the london low at 1.40455
Reclaim and close above the 1.40835 session high opens the path toward the 1.41000 round number
Failure to hold the ema20 at 1.40668 on a closing basis flattens the intraday uptrend read
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT (f/c -0.8%) is the next material CAD event risk
Higher highs and higher lows since the early-London low, shallow pullbacks.
NY session extended the London grind higher, clearing the 1.4080 barrier to a session high at 1.40835 before easing back to 1.40756 — softer crude on Hormuz reopening talk and the wide US-Canada front-end spread remain the drivers. Pullbacks stay shallow, holding above the ema20 near 1.40690, with RSI(14) at ~65 hot but not stretched and ATR(14) around 7 pips.
Support: 1.4069, 1.40615, 1.40446
Resistance: 1.40835, 1.4090
What it said to watch
Sustained trade back under 1.4080 would mark the session high as a false break
Loss of the 1.40615 swing low breaks the intraday higher-low chain
Acceptance above the session high opens the 1.40900 psych level
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT is the next scheduled CAD event risk
18:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher into late NY · RSI 66 · price 1.40756
Chain of higher highs and higher lows since the London-NY transition; last bar stalling under the session high.
USDCAD ground through the 1.4080 barrier during NY hours to a session high at 1.40835, with softer crude on Hormuz reopening talk and the wide US-Canada front-end spread behind the move. Last bars are consolidating just under that high with RSI(14) near 66 and ATR(14) around 6.5 pips; the higher-low chain from 1.40615 is still intact.
Support: 1.4070, 1.40615
Resistance: 1.40835, 1.4090
What it said to watch
Sustained trade above the 1.40835 session high opens the path to the 1.40900 round number
A close back under 1.40615 swing low would break the intraday higher-low chain
Loss of the rising trendline / ema20 near 1.40700 would flatten the NY-session uptrend read
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT (f/c -0.8% MoM) is the main scheduled event risk for this structure
17:46 UTC
Uptrend, extended but intact · RSI 72 · price 1.40775
Higher highs and higher lows since the London low, fresh session high on the last bars.
Grinding uptrend through London into NY hours, with the session high now at 1.40818 and the 1.4080 area cleared on the last two bars — soft crude on Hormuz reopening headlines has left CAD without commodity support. RSI(14) near 71.5 is hot but normal for this kind of drift; the HL chain off the 1.40446 london low is unbroken, with the 1.40689 swing low the last defended shelf.
Support: 1.40689, 1.40558, 1.40446
Resistance: 1.40818, 1.4090, 1.4100
What it said to watch
A close back below 1.40689 breaks the higher-low chain and turns the 1.4080 push into a false break
Acceptance above the 1.40818 session high opens the 1.409 psych area then 1.4100 round number
Loss of 1.40558 swing low would flatten the intraday structure back into the London range
Fedspeak in the next hours and Thursday's Canada Retail Sales are the near-term event risks for this pair
17:31 UTC
Uptrend, extended but intact · RSI 71 · price 1.40766
Higher highs / higher lows since the London low, price pressing session high.
Steady NY-session grind higher off the 1.40245 London low, with the session high at 1.40807 tagged on the last impulse as lower crude on Hormuz reopening headlines stripped CAD of commodity support. RSI(14) near 71 — hot but normal in this kind of one-way intraday drift; each pullback has held above the prior higher low at 1.40689.
Support: 1.40689, 1.40615, 1.40245
Resistance: 1.40807, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Repeated rejection at the 1.40807 session high would cap the move and turn this into a late-NY range
A close below the 1.40689 swing low breaks the higher-low chain built through the NY session
Acceptance above 1.40807 opens the path to the 1.41000 round number
Fedspeak in the next hours and Thursday's Canada retail sales are the headline risks to this structure
17:16 UTC
Uptrend, extended but intact · RSI 72 · price 1.40705
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.40245 low, stalling under 1.4080.
NY afternoon has USDCAD grinding to a session high of 1.40782 in a clean HH/HL chain off the 1.40245 low, with softer crude on the Hormuz reopening headlines stripping CAD of commodity support. Momentum is cooling: RSI(14) near 72 with the last four bars flat between 1.40655 and 1.40782, price holding above EMA20 and EMA50, ATR(14) about 6.4 pips.
Support: 1.40655, 1.40615, 1.40446
Resistance: 1.40782, 1.4080
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 1.4080 barrier would extend the uptrend beyond the session high
Loss of 1.40615 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and invalidates the intraday uptrend read
Fed's Barkin remarks in the current session, then Wednesday's US flash PMIs, could reset this structure
17:02 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher into late NY · RSI 68 · price 1.40705
Chain of higher highs / higher lows since the London low, now stalling under the session high.
USD/CAD trended steadily through London and into NY, breaking the earlier 1.4052 area and printing a session high at 1.40782 before flattening out in a tight 1.4069–1.4078 consolidation. Softer crude on the Hormuz reopening talk and the wide US-Canada front-end spread are behind the CAD drift; RSI(14) near 68 is hot but not stretched, and ATR(14) is running ~6.6 pips per bar.
Support: 1.40615, 1.4052, 1.40245
Resistance: 1.40782, 1.4080
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 1.4080 psych level would extend the uptrend from the session low
A close back below the 1.40615 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the 1.4052 breakout base back in play
Fed's Barkin speaking at 17:00 UTC is the immediate headline risk to this consolidation
16:46 UTC
Uptrend, momentum still intact · RSI 73 · price 1.40726
HH/HL chain since the London low at 1.4025.
NY session has ground higher in an unbroken HH/HL chain off the 1.4025 London low, printing a session high at 1.40782 just under the 1.4080 round number, with the softer-crude/Hormuz-headline backdrop keeping CAD offered. RSI(14) at ~73 is hot but not extreme, ATR(14) ~6 pips, and each pullback has been shallow — 1.40615 is the nearest swing low, with the rising trendline off 1.40455 underneath.
Support: 1.40615, 1.40455
Resistance: 1.40782, 1.4080
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4080 round number extends the NY leg; repeated rejection there caps the session high at 1.40782
Loss of the 1.40615 swing low would break the HH/HL chain and put the trendline near 1.40455 in play
Fed's Barkin at 17:00 UTC is the only near-term event risk in this bar window
16:31 UTC
Uptrend, extended into NY highs · RSI 78 · price 1.40767
Higher highs and higher lows since 07:30 UTC, at session high.
Asia ranged in a 20-pip box above the 1.40245 asian low, London broke it higher and NY has extended without a meaningful pullback, price closing at the session high of 1.40767 with RSI(14) near 78. Firm USD on hawkish Fed repricing plus softer crude weighing on CAD is the driver; 1.40800 round number is the immediate cap, with the 1.40615 swing low the first break in the higher-low chain.
Support: 1.40615, 1.40446, 1.40245
Resistance: 1.4080, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 1.40800 round number opens the 1.41000 psych level
M15 close back below 1.40615 swing low breaks the intraday higher-low sequence
Loss of the rising support line off the ny open low at 1.40446 ends the NY trend leg
Fed's Barkin ~17:00 UTC could shift the USD tone within the next bars
Higher highs and higher lows through NY, at session high.
Price chopped 1.4025–1.4050 through Asia and London before the NY session broke out, stacking higher lows into a session high at 1.40745 with the last bar parked just under it. RSI(14) near 75 shows the leg is stretched but not yet rolling; ATR(14) ~7 pips, so the 1.40615 swing low is the nearest structural marker beneath price.
Support: 1.40615, 1.40446, 1.40245
Resistance: 1.40745, 1.4080
What it said to watch
Close above 1.40745 session high extends the leg toward the 1.40800 prior high
Loss of 1.40615 swing low breaks the NY higher-low chain and puts 1.40446 back in play
Fed's Barkin in under an hour could reprice the USD leg intraday
16:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended into NY · RSI 78 · price 1.40712
Higher highs / higher lows since the London low, fresh session high on the close.
Grinding uptrend through the NY session: the Asian range (1.4025-1.4038) was broken at the London open and every pullback has held higher, with the 1.40521 prior high absorbed and a fresh session high at 1.40745 printed in the last hour. RSI(14) near 78 is hot but consistent with the trend; last defended swing low sits at 1.40615, with CAD still capped by softer crude on the Hormuz reopening headlines.
Support: 1.40615, 1.40521, 1.40273
Resistance: 1.40745, 1.4080
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.40615 swing low would break the intraday higher-low chain
Acceptance above 1.40745 session high opens the 1.40800 psych area
A slip back under the 1.40521 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Fed's Barkin in roughly 1h could shift the USD tone into the late NY session
15:46 UTC
Uptrend, extended into NY · RSI 76 · price 1.40678
Higher highs and higher lows since the 10:15 UTC London low.
Clean HH/HL grind through the NY session after the 1.40273 London low, with the Asian range high near 1.40430 broken and never reclaimed from below; session high 1.40705. RSI(14) near 76 with ATR just 6.5 pips — momentum is hot in a low-range tape, helped by softer crude on Hormuz reopening talk weighing on CAD while USD stays firm.
Support: 1.40615, 1.40455, 1.40273
Resistance: 1.40705, 1.4080
What it said to watch
Close back below the 1.40615 swing low breaks the intraday HH/HL chain
Acceptance above the 1.40705 session high opens the 1.40800 barrier
Fed's Barkin at 17:00 UTC is the next intraday catalyst for this read
Loss of 1.40455 prior low would put the rising support line in play
Higher highs and higher lows through NY, fresh session high on the close.
USDCAD has trended one-way through the NY session, breaking out of the 1.4032 range base and printing a session high at 1.40705, with softer crude on Hormuz reopening talk leaving CAD offered. RSI(14) near 79 is hot and ATR is only ~6 pips per bar, so the advance is grinding rather than impulsive; nearest reference above is the 1.4080 psych barrier.
Support: 1.40598, 1.40446, 1.40305
Resistance: 1.40705, 1.4080
What it said to watch
M15 close back under the micro low at 1.40598 breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Loss of 1.40446 swing low would unwind the NY breakout back toward the 1.4032 range base
Acceptance above the 1.40705 session high puts the 1.4080 psych level in play
Fed's Barkin at 17:00 UTC is the only near-term event risk in this window
Chain of higher highs and higher lows since the London low, price at session high.
USD/CAD has trended higher through the NY session, breaking the prior NY high and printing a session high at 1.40662 with RSI(14) near 78 — hot but consistent with the firm post-FOMC USD and softer crude keeping CAD pinned. Higher lows at 1.40273 and 1.40446 mark the ascending path off the 1.40245 london low; ATR(14) is just 5.6 pips, so the advance is a grind rather than an impulse.
Support: 1.40446, 1.40273, 1.40245
Resistance: 1.40662, 1.4070, 1.4080
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 1.40700 round number would extend the run toward the 1.4080 barrier
A close back below 1.40446 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and turns the NY move corrective
Fed's Barkin at 17:00 UTC plus oil/Hormuz headlines are the near-term drivers for this read
15:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended into NY highs · RSI 77 · price 1.40616
Higher highs / higher lows since the london low, price at window high.
NY hours pushed USDCAD through the 1.40494 london high and the 1.4050 Aug-6 zone, printing a fresh window high at 1.40662 with RSI(14) near 77 — short-term hot but consistent with the trend. The higher-low chain off the 1.40273 london low is intact, last defended at the 1.40446 swing low, with USD firm post-hawkish-Fed and soft crude leaving CAD offered.
Support: 1.40494, 1.40446, 1.40273
Resistance: 1.40662, 1.4070, 1.4080
What it said to watch
An M15 close back under the 1.40494 london high would break the higher-low chain
Failure to clear the 1.40662 session high keeps price capped; 1.40700 round number then 1.40800 next barrier are the markers above
Loss of the 1.40446 swing low turns the intraday structure sideways
Fed's Barkin at 17:00 UTC and Hormuz/oil headlines can reprice this within the next few bars; ATR(14) ~5.8 pips
Higher highs and higher lows since the NY morning low; fresh session high.
NY morning has been a steady grind higher: price broke the 1.40503/1.40521 cluster and printed a session high at 1.40627, with each dip holding above the prior pivot (last one 1.40461). RSI(14) near 73.5 is hot but consistent with the trend, ATR(14) around 5.6 pips; USD remains firm post-hawkish Fed while softer crude keeps CAD on the back foot.
Support: 1.40461, 1.40322, 1.40273
Resistance: 1.40627, 1.4080
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.40461 breaks the higher-low chain and the hl trendline off the session low at 1.40273
Acceptance above the 1.40627 session high opens the 1.40800 round number area — zone to monitor for rejection or break
Fed's Barkin at 17:00 UTC is the nearest scheduled catalyst inside this bar window
Oil/Hormuz headlines can reprice CAD intraday and override this micro-structure
Higher highs / higher lows since the London low; fresh session high on the last bar.
NY hours took USDCAD through the 1.4050 Aug 6 high with a clean breakout, the last bar printing a session high at 1.4060 with RSI(14) near 76 — hot but not stretched. The grind up from the 1.4027 london low is intact on a chain of higher lows, helped by hawkish fedspeak and the Hormuz-driven slide in crude removing CAD's commodity offset; ATR(14) is a thin 5.4 pips, so moves are small and persistent rather than impulsive.
Support: 1.4050, 1.4033, 1.4027
Resistance: 1.4060, 1.4080
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.4050 on a close would turn the breakout into a false break
A close back under the 1.4033 swing pivot breaks the higher-low chain
1.4080 barrier is the next reference above the session high — area to monitor for rejection or extension
Barkin at 17:00 UTC is the immediate USD-side risk to this read
14:16 UTC
Uptrend, extended into NY open · RSI 76 · price 1.40559
Higher highs / higher lows since the London low, breakout above prior high.
Unbroken higher-high / higher-low chain from the 1.4027 London low into the first NY hour, with the 1.4050 prior high taken out and a session high printed at 1.4056; RSI(14) near 76 is hot but consistent with the grind. Firm USD on hawkish fedspeak plus soft crude removing the CAD offset is the backdrop, and ATR(14) at ~4.9 pips keeps the advance orderly rather than impulsive.
Support: 1.4050, 1.4044, 1.4027
Resistance: 1.4056, 1.4080
What it said to watch
Acceptance above 1.4056 opens the path to the 1.4080 barrier
M15 close back below the 1.4044 ema20 breaks the higher-low chain
Loss of 1.4050 prior high would leave the breakout as a false break
Fed speakers Williams 14:05 UTC and Jefferson 14:20 UTC land inside the next bars and can reprice USD intraday
14:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended into NY · RSI 76 · price 1.40559
Higher highs / higher lows off the 1.40273 session low.
The NY leg has carried price through the 1.40494 prior high (London morning spike) to 1.40559, with RSI(14) near 76 — short-term hot but consistent with the grind higher off the 1.40273 session low. USD is firm on hawkish fedspeak while crude's Hormuz-driven slide has removed CAD's commodity offset; ATR(14) is only ~5.4 pips, so this is a slow trend rather than an impulse.
Support: 1.40494, 1.4043, 1.40273
Resistance: 1.4060, 1.4080
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.40494 prior high would put the 1.40430 ema20 and rising support off the session low back in play
1.4060 round number then the 1.4080 barrier are the next upside references
Fed speakers (Williams 14:05, Jefferson 14:20, Barkin 17:00 UTC) could reshape this read inside the next few bars
13:46 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher into NY hours · RSI 74 · price 1.40502
Higher highs and higher lows, fresh session high.
USDCAD ground through the 1.4050 area during the London-NY overlap to print a session high at 1.40513, extending a clean chain of higher lows off 1.40246 and 1.40273 — consistent with the firm USD tone from this week's hawkish fedspeak. RSI(14) near 74 is hot but not extreme, and ATR(14) around 5 pips shows a slow, low-volatility drift rather than an impulsive break.
Support: 1.40273, 1.40246
Resistance: 1.40513, 1.4080
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams 14:05 UTC and Jefferson 14:20 UTC fall inside the next bar period and could shift the USD-side read
Failure to hold the 1.40273 swing low breaks the rising-lows chain and reopens the 1.40246 session low
Sustained acceptance above the 1.40513 session high puts the 1.4080 next barrier in focus
13:31 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 78 · price 1.40498
Higher highs and higher lows since the 10:00 UTC low, retesting London high.
London-open bid lifted USDCAD off the 1.40245 asian low to 1.40503, and after a dip to the 1.40273 london low the pair has built a clean chain of higher lows into the first hour of NY, now retesting that session high with firm USD and softer crude behind the move. RSI(14) near 78 is hot but consistent with the grind; ATR(14) only ~5 pips, so ranges are thin.
Support: 1.4041, 1.40273, 1.40245
Resistance: 1.40503
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 1.40503 session high extends the higher-high sequence; failure there sets up a double top with the London print
Loss of the ema20 around 1.40410 breaks the higher-low chain and puts the 1.40273 london low back in play
Fed's Williams 14:05 UTC and Jefferson 14:20 UTC land in the next bars and can reset this intraday read
13:16 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher into session high · RSI 71 · price 1.40485
Higher lows since the London low, price retesting the session high.
London hours drove a leg from the 1.40245 london low to 1.40494, the pullback held 1.40273 and price is now back retesting the session high into the NY open with RSI(14) near 71. EMA20 around 1.40400 has capped each dip; the 1.4050 psych area is the same ceiling the digest flags as the August high.
Support: 1.4040, 1.40273, 1.40245
Resistance: 1.40494, 1.4050
What it said to watch
A 15-minute close above 1.40494 / the 1.4050 psych area extends the higher-low chain; repeated rejection there keeps this a session-high retest
Loss of the 1.40273 swing low breaks the intraday higher-low structure and puts the 1.40245 london low back in play
Fed speakers Williams 14:05 UTC and Jefferson 14:20 UTC, plus Hormuz/oil headlines, can reprice this within the next few bars
13:03 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher into NY · RSI 68 · price 1.40485
Higher highs and higher lows since the Asian low, retesting session high.
London built a clean higher-low chain off the 1.40245 Asian low and the 1.40273 swing low, and price is now back at the 1.40494 session high with the 1.4050 round number immediately above. RSI(14) near 68 and price holding above EMA20 at ~1.40390; CAD stays capped as Hormuz reopening headlines keep crude soft.
Support: 1.4039, 1.40273, 1.40245
Resistance: 1.40494, 1.4050
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40494 puts the 1.4050 round number in play
Failure to hold the 1.40273 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Fed speakers Williams 14:05 UTC and Jefferson 14:20 UTC could reshape this intraday read
12:46 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 54 · price 1.40433
Higher lows since London open, price back at session high.
London open broke the 1.4025–1.4043 Asian range to the upside and printed the session high at 1.40494 before fading to 1.40273, where a higher low formed; price has since retested the highs at 1.40433 with RSI(14) mid-range at ~54. The 175bp Fed/BoC spread keeps the drift higher, while Hormuz-driven oil swings are the intraday two-way risk. ATR(14) around 5 pips — tight, orderly bars.
Support: 1.40273, 1.40245, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40494, 1.4050, 1.4080
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40494 / the 1.4050 aug 6 high extends the range break toward 1.4080
Loss of the 1.40273 higher low turns the London advance into a failed break, with the asian low at 1.40245 next
Sustained move below 1.4000 psych would invalidate the intraday uptrend read
Fed speakers from 14:05 UTC and the NY open could reprice this range within the next few bars
12:31 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 58 · price 1.40434
Higher lows since 09:45 UTC, pressing back toward session high.
London took price out of the 1.40245/1.40336 Asian range and tagged a session high at 1.40494 before fading to 1.40273, with the wider Fed-BoC spread and softer crude on Hormuz reopening headlines keeping USD/CAD offered-to-firm. Last eight bars have built higher lows back to 1.40434 into the NY open, RSI(14) mid-50s and ATR(14) only ~6 pips — a slow grind, not an impulse.
Support: 1.40273, 1.40245
Resistance: 1.40494, 1.4050
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40494 session high puts the 1.40500 psych level in play
Loss of the 1.40273 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and re-opens the asia low at 1.40245
Fed speakers Williams 14:05 and Jefferson 14:20 UTC land inside NY hours and could reset this range
Higher highs / higher lows since the Asian range base, capped under the London session high.
London pushed out of the 1.40245 range base into a 1.40494 session high before rejection wicked price back to a 1.40273 session low; the last six bars have re-climbed above the EMA20 near 1.40371 into the pre-NY window. RSI(14) neutral at ~52 and ATR(14) at ~6 pips — a contained drift, with lower crude on the Hormuz reopening headlines keeping CAD offered while the firm USD tone holds.
Support: 1.40322, 1.40273, 1.40245
Resistance: 1.40494, 1.4050
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.40494 session high opens the 1.4050 psych area
Loss of the 1.40273 session low breaks the higher-low chain and re-opens the 1.40245 range base
Fed speakers (Williams 14:05, Jefferson 14:20 UTC) land inside the next few bars and can reset this intraday read
Higher lows into a tight range under the session high.
London pushed to 1.40494 and was rejected right under the 1.4050 psych level, then chopped back to 1.40273 before grinding higher into the pre-NY hours — price now 1.40413, above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) mid-50s. The hawkish-Fed / wide Fed-BoC spread backdrop keeps the drift upward, but the last three hours are consolidation inside 1.40273-1.40494 rather than continuation; ATR(14) is a thin 6.3 pips.
Support: 1.40273, 1.40245, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40494, 1.4050
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40494 / the 1.4050 psych level would confirm a range break
Loss of the 1.40273 session low breaks the chain of higher lows and opens the 1.40245 asia low
Fed speakers from 14:05 UTC (Williams, Jefferson, Barkin) can shift this intraday read quickly
Back inside Asian range after London false break of 1.40430.
London pushed above the 1.40430 asian high to a 1.40494 london high and was rejected, with price fading back inside the overnight 1.40245–1.40430 range before stabilising just above the ema20 at ~1.4036. Oil's slide on Hormuz reopening talk has kept USDCAD bid, but the failure at 1.4050 leaves it in consolidation with RSI(14) mid-range and ATR ~6 pips.
Support: 1.4036, 1.40273, 1.40245
Resistance: 1.4043, 1.40494
What it said to watch
Reclaim and 15m close above the 1.40430 asian high re-opens the 1.40494 london high and the 1.4050 area
Loss of the 1.40273 higher low shifts the read back toward the 1.40245 asian low
Fed speakers (Williams 14:05 UTC, Jefferson 14:20) fall inside the next few bars and could break this range
11:31 UTC
Mild uptrend, momentum stalled after London push · RSI 50 · price 1.40346
Higher lows into a failed test of the session high, now mid-range.
London open lifted price off the 1.40245 asian low to a session high of 1.40494, where it was rejected just under the 1.4050 area, then fully retraced to 1.40273. Since then USDCAD has consolidated in a 1.40273–1.4043 band either side of EMA20 (1.4034), RSI(14) back to neutral near 50 as cooling crude on Hormuz de-escalation offsets the wide Fed-BoC spread.
Support: 1.40273, 1.40245
Resistance: 1.4043, 1.40494
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40494 reopens the London leg toward the 1.4050 area
Loss of the 1.40273 london low exposes the 1.40245 asian low and invalidates the higher-low chain
Fed speakers Williams 14:05 UTC and Jefferson 14:20 UTC could reprice the read inside the next few bars
ATR(14) at 6.6 pips — sub-normal ranges keep the consolidation read in play
Back inside Asian range after failed break of 1.4043.
London pushed through the asian high at 1.40430 to a session high of 1.40494 and was rejected inside two bars, with price back in the middle of the prior range at 1.40322 and a chain of lower highs since. Crude snapping its losing streak took the edge off the Fed/BoC spread bid; RSI(14) back to neutral near 52, ATR(14) ~6 pips.
Support: 1.40273, 1.40245, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4043, 1.40494
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian high at 1.40430 would reinstate the London break
Loss of the session low at 1.40273 exposes the asian low at 1.40245
Fed speakers Williams and Jefferson in ~3h are the nearest catalyst for the USD leg
Consolidation under session high after rejection at 1.4049.
European hours pushed above the Asian range to a session high at 1.40494 and got rejected, price now coiling 1.4027–1.4043 with RSI(14) back at neutral 49 and ATR(14) only 6.4 pips. The fade lines up with the crude bounce and the Hormuz-reopening risk-on headlines taking some steam out of the USD leg; price is pinned on the EMA20 into the pre-NY window.
Support: 1.4027, 1.40245, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4043, 1.40494
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.40494 session high reopens the mid-1.4000s cap
Loss of the 1.4027 swing low then the 1.40245 asian low invalidates the consolidation read
Fed speakers Williams 14:05 and Jefferson 14:20 UTC land inside the next few bars and can reprice the USD leg
London break of the Asian range high faded back inside; higher lows intact above 1.4027.
London hours pushed through the asia high at 1.4043 to a session high of 1.40494 before the move was rejected and price slipped back inside the Asian range, consistent with the consolidation below the mid-1.4000s cap flagged in the CAD read. Price is back mid-range at 1.40354 with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR(14) around 6.6 pips; the session low at 1.40273 has held twice into the pre-NY hours.
Support: 1.40273, 1.40245, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40494, 1.4043
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.40494 session high would invalidate the false break read and reopen the mid-1.4000s cap
Loss of the 1.40273 session low exposes the asia low at 1.40245, below which the intraday higher-low chain breaks
Fed speakers from 14:05 UTC (Williams, Jefferson, Barkin) fall inside the next few bars and could reprice the USD leg
Lower highs since session high, back inside asia range.
London pushed through the asia high at 1.4043 and tagged 1.40494 before an immediate rejection dragged price back inside the overnight range, with the USD stall at two-month highs and a crude bounce capping the extension. Since then a chain of lower highs has formed, the pullback low at 1.40273 held, and price is now pinned around the ema20/ema50 cluster with RSI(14) back to a neutral 55.
Support: 1.4032, 1.40273, 1.40245
Resistance: 1.4043, 1.40494
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.4043 negates the false break and re-exposes the 1.40494 session high
Loss of the 1.40273 pullback low, then the 1.40245 asia low, confirms a lower-low on the session
Fed speakers Williams and Jefferson in the NY morning are the nearest scheduled risk to this read; no Canadian data until Thursday retail sales
10:16 UTC
Sideways, London upside leg faded · RSI 51 · price 1.4029
False break of asia high, price back inside the range.
London took out the asia high at 1.4043 and printed a session high at 1.4049 — fresh Aug-5 territory on the Fed/BoC spread — then gave the whole leg back, closing at 1.4029 with price slipping under EMA20. RSI(14) flat near 51 and ATR ~6 pips; a false break rather than a trend extension, with the crude bounce keeping the mid-1.4000s capped.
Support: 1.4025, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4043, 1.4049
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.4043 would re-open the 1.4049 session high
Loss of the 1.4025 asia low would confirm a lower-low and expose the 1.4000 psych level
US ADP 4-week average 12:15 UTC and Fed speakers (Williams 14:05, Jefferson 14:20) fall in the next few bars and can reset the intraday range
10:03 UTC
Rangebound, London push faded · RSI 51 · price 1.4029
False break above prior high, price back inside Asian range.
The London push cleared the 1.4043 prior high and tagged a 1.40494 session high before being rejected, and the pair has since given back nearly the whole leg to trade back at 1.4029 — a false break with USD momentum stalling near two-month highs while firmer crude and Macklem's hawkish tone cap the CAD downside. RSI(14) back to neutral near 51, price marginally under EMA20/EMA50, ATR(14) ~6 pips.
Support: 1.40245, 1.39959, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4043, 1.40494
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.4043 prior high would re-validate the London breakout
Loss of the 1.40245 asia low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.4000 psych pivot
ADP 4-week average 12:15 UTC and Fed's Williams 14:05 / Jefferson 14:20 UTC are the next USD-side risks for this range
Higher highs/higher lows since Asian low, now consolidating under session high.
London hours broke the tight Asian range and extended to a session high of 1.40494 — the top end of the mid-1.4000s area flagged as the cap — on the 175bp Fed/BoC front-end gap, before a sharp two-bar fade to 1.40326 and a retest that is so far holding. RSI(14) at 64 has rolled off its spike high and ATR(14) is 5.7 pips, so the pair is consolidating inside the upper half of the London range rather than trending.
Support: 1.40326, 1.40245, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40494, 1.4080
What it said to watch
M15 acceptance above the 1.40494 session high would extend the breakout toward the 1.40800 barrier
Close back below the 1.40326 pullback low would break the higher-low chain and put the 1.40245 asian low back in play
Fed speakers Williams 14:05 UTC and Jefferson 14:20 UTC land inside the NY session and could reset the USD leg of this read
Higher highs/higher lows; Asian range broken to the upside, now consolidating under the session high.
London hours broke the 1.40245–1.40430 Asian range topside and ran to a session high at 1.40494 before the same bar wicked back to 1.40370 — rejection there, with the pullback holding the london low at 1.40326. Move sits with the 175bp Fed/BoC front-end gap behind it; RSI(14) near 65, ATR(14) about 5.5 pips, price above EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.40326, 1.40245, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40494, 1.4043
What it said to watch
Reclaim and close above 1.40494 extends the breakout; repeated failure there builds a double top
Loss of the london low at 1.40326 puts the asia low 1.40245 back in play and neutralises the breakout read
A slide back under the 1.4000 psych pivot would break the higher-low chain entirely
Fed speakers from 14:05 UTC (Williams, Jefferson, Barkin) can reprice the USD leg inside the next few hours
Asian range broken upward, higher highs and higher lows into London.
The Asian session compressed into a 1.40245–1.40330 band before the London hours drove a clean range break to a session high of 1.40494, consistent with the firm USD / wide Fed-BoC front-end spread flagged in the digest. That push was rejected immediately — two bars dumped back to the 1.40326 pullback low — leaving price mid-range at 1.40382 with RSI(14) near 63 and ATR(14) about 5 pips.
Support: 1.40326, 1.40245
Resistance: 1.40494, 1.4043
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.40430 prior high keeps the London breakout structure intact; repeated rejection there builds a lower high
M15 close back under the 1.40326 pullback low negates the breakout impulse
Loss of the 1.40245 session low restores the Asian range read
US Fed speakers later in the NY session could re-price the USD leg and override this intraday structure
Higher highs off the Asian base, first lower high forming.
London session broke the flat Asian range at 1.40245 and ran to a session high of 1.40494 before an immediate rejection back to 1.40326, leaving price mid-range at 1.40382 with RSI(14) cooling from the mid-60s. The intraday grind higher fits the firm USD tone, though the pullback low is the first sign of supply capping above 1.4045.
Support: 1.40326, 1.40245, 1.4015
Resistance: 1.40494, 1.4043, 1.4050
What it said to watch
Reclaim and close above the 1.40494 session high would extend the higher-high chain toward the 1.4050 round number
Loss of the 1.40326 pullback low puts the 1.40245 asia low back in play and negates the breakout
US Fed speakers from 14:05 UTC and ADP data at 12:15 UTC could reshape this intraday read
08:46 UTC
Uptrend, impulsive London leg · RSI 76 · price 1.40479
Range break, higher highs off session low.
London open cleared the Asian high at 1.4043 in four consecutive up bars and price is now pinned at the session high of 1.40485, with the 1.40500 round number immediately above; RSI(14) ~76, ATR(14) ~4 pips. The push sits with the firm-USD, 175bp Fed/BoC spread backdrop described in the digest, after the Asian range low held repeatedly at 1.40245.
Support: 1.4043, 1.40245
Resistance: 1.40485, 1.4050, 1.4080
What it said to watch
Close back under 1.4043 would mark the London push as a false break and restore the Asian range
Acceptance above the 1.40500 round number opens the path toward the 1.4080 barrier
A slide back to the 1.40245 session low invalidates the higher-high chain
Fed speakers later in the NY session are the main scheduled risk to the USD leg
08:31 UTC
Uptrend, momentum accelerating into London · RSI 73 · price 1.40418
Higher highs / higher lows, retesting overnight range top.
London session has reclaimed the overnight range top in four straight bars and is pressing the Asia high at 1.4043, RSI(14) at 73 and price clear of both EMA20 and EMA50. The 1.40245 session low held at the London open, extending the rising support chain off Monday's NY low at 1.3996; the wide Fed–BoC spread and Macklem's hawkish Halifax tone remain the backdrop. ATR(14) is thin at ~3.8 pips, so the last leg is large relative to recent bar size.
Support: 1.40245, 1.4016, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4043, 1.4050
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.40430 asia high opens the path to the 1.40500 round number
Loss of the 1.40245 session low breaks the rising support chain and reopens the 1.40160 ema50 area
1.40000 psych pivot untested since Monday's NY session low
Fed speakers (Williams 14:05, Jefferson 14:20 GMT) fall within the next session and could reset this intraday read
Higher lows since the NY-session low, base at 1.40245 holding.
Asia printed the cycle extension at the 1.40430 asia high before a slow drift back to the 1.40245 session low, where price based for several hours. The European session has broken that base with three impulsive bars back to 1.40401, RSI(14) up near 74, with the wide Fed–BoC spread still the backdrop and only the crude bounce offsetting it.
Support: 1.40245, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4043, 1.4050
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.40430 asia high extends the leg toward the 1.40500 round number
Failure to hold 1.40245 session low negates the European-session recovery and reopens the 1.40000 psych pivot
Fed speakers Williams 14:05 and Jefferson 14:20 GMT are the next USD-side driver for this read
Higher lows since Monday's 1.3996 low; Asia pullback absorbed, testing Asia high.
Asia printed the session high at 1.4043 — a fresh cycle extreme on the wide Fed–BoC spread — then flagged sideways into 1.40245, a level bought twice late in the Asian range. The London open has lifted price back to 1.40401 and the asia high is now being retested, RSI(14) at 68 and ATR(14) only ~3.7 pips.
Support: 1.4029, 1.40245, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4043, 1.4050
What it said to watch
A 15m close above the 1.4043 asia high opens the path toward the 1.4050 round number
Loss of the 1.40245 asia low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the ema20 read in question
Fed speakers Williams 14:05 / Jefferson 14:20 GMT are the intraday USD risk and could reset this range
07:46 UTC
Range, drifting lower off the Asia high · RSI 56 · price 1.40319
Lower highs since the Asia high, flat floor at the session low.
Asia printed the cycle high at 1.40430 and was rejected, with early London hours grinding out a chain of lower highs into a flat 1.40245 session low — the pullback lines up with crude's bounce and Macklem's hawkish Halifax tone. Price has since ticked back to 1.40319 inside a 1.40245–1.40430 range with ATR(14) compressed to 3 pips and RSI(14) mid-range at 56.
Support: 1.40245, 1.4020, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4039, 1.4043
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.40390 prior high re-opens the 1.40430 asia high
Loss of the 1.40245 session low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.40200 psych area, with the 1.40000 psych handle the next reference
Fed speakers from 14:05 UTC (Williams, Jefferson, Barkin) could break this compressed range within the next few bars
07:31 UTC
Drifting lower off the Asian high, momentum flat · RSI 44 · price 1.40266
Lower highs from 1.4043 into a tight 1.4025–1.4030 balance.
Asia printed 1.4043 — the top of the multi-week range — and rejected it, with early London grinding back to 1.4025/1.4030 as crude bounced and Macklem's hawkish Halifax remarks lingered. Price is now pinned either side of the EMA20 at 1.40275 with ATR down to 2.8 pips; session low 1.40245 has held four times.
Support: 1.40245, 1.40185, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40275, 1.40303, 1.4043
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.40303 session high puts the 1.4043 asian high back in play
Loss of the 1.40245 session low breaks the consolidation and exposes 1.40185 prior swing, with the 1.4000 psych handle beneath
ATR at 2.8 pips signals compression — a break either way likely expands range
Fed speakers (Williams, Jefferson, Barkin) later today are the main scheduled risk to this balance
Lower highs off the Asia high, flat base at 1.40245.
Asia tagged the 1.40430 asia high before fading steadily into the London open, helped by crude bouncing on US-Iran talk headlines; price is now pinned at 1.40254, right on the 38.2% retracement of the Monday low–Asia high leg. Last eight bars are a 5-pip flat base above the 1.40245 session low with RSI(14) near 38, price under EMA20 and ATR(14) around 3 pips — compression, no structure resolved yet.
Support: 1.40245, 1.4020
Resistance: 1.40303, 1.4043
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.40303 micro high breaks the lower-high chain off the asia high
Loss of the 1.40245 session low exposes the 1.40200 round number
Fed speakers (Williams, Jefferson, Barkin) later today can reset this intraday range
Lower highs off the asia high, now compressing above the session low.
Asia posted the day's high at 1.40430 — the highest since early August per the CAD read — then the pair bled back through a clean lower-high chain as crude bounced off its recent low and Macklem's hawkish-leaning remarks underpinned the loonie. Into early London the last 12 bars are compressed in a 6-pip band, with 1.40245 holding as the session low and supply capping at the 1.40303 session high; ATR(14) at ~3 pips shows range conditions, RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.40245, 1.4020
Resistance: 1.40303, 1.4043
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.40303 session high breaks the lower-high sequence and re-opens the 1.40430 asia high
Loss of 1.40245 session low exposes the 1.40200 round number
Fed speakers (Williams, Jefferson, Barkin) later today can break this compression; Wednesday's US flash PMIs are the larger risk to the read
06:46 UTC
Intraday pullback after fresh high · RSI 38 · price 1.4027
Lower highs into a tight 1.4025–1.4030 coil.
Asia pushed to a session high at 1.4043 and was rejected, with the pair fading back through the asia mid at 1.4032 as crude bounced off its lows. Into early London it is coiling in a 1.4025–1.4030 band under EMA20/EMA50, RSI(14) near 38 and ATR(14) only ~3 pips — no expansion yet.
Support: 1.40245, 1.4020, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4032, 1.4043
What it said to watch
Break and hold below the 1.40245 session low exposes the 1.402 round number and then the 1.4000 psych pivot
Reclaim of the 1.4032 asia mid puts the 1.4043 session high back in play
Fed speakers (Williams, Jefferson, Barkin) and oil headlines are the intraday drivers that could break this coil
Lower highs off 1.4043, now coiling in a 4-pip band above the session low.
Asia hours put in a fresh high at 1.40430 — the highest since early August per the CAD digest — then faded in a chain of lower highs, with the last twelve bars compressing into a 1.40245–1.40281 band. Price sits just under the EMA20 with RSI(14) near 36 and ATR only ~3 pips; hawkish Macklem commentary and the crude bounce are the stated brake on follow-through.
Support: 1.40245, 1.4020, 1.4010
Resistance: 1.40282, 1.40343, 1.4043
What it said to watch
Reclaim and hold above the 1.40282 ema20 would end the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 1.40245 session low exposes the 1.40200 psych area
London open within the hour typically expands this ATR — the current 4-pip range is unlikely to survive it
Break back above 1.40343 swing high puts the 1.40430 prior high back in play
Lower highs off 1.40430 into a tight late-Asia coil.
Asian hours pushed to a session high of 1.40430 and were rejected, with price bleeding back into a 1.40245–1.40280 coil under the EMA20 — ATR(14) is down to ~2.6 pips, the tightest stretch of the window. RSI(14) near 35 with price below both EMA20 and EMA50; the hawkish-leaning Macklem tone and the crude bounce have been enough to stall the grind above 1.4000, not reverse it.
Support: 1.40245, 1.40107, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4028, 1.4043
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.40280 ema20 on a 15m close would end the lower-high sequence off the session high
Loss of the 1.40245 session low confirms a lower low and opens the 1.40107 swing low
1.4000 psych level is the pivot for the whole two-week advance
European session open typically expands this compressed range; US flash PMIs later in the week are the larger risk to the intraday read
05:46 UTC
Drifting lower after Asia high, momentum flat · RSI 40 · price 1.40263
Lower highs off 1.40430, price coiled at session low.
Asia poked above Monday's 1.40386 prior day hi to an asia high of 1.40430 and was rejected, unwinding ~18 pips into a chain of lower highs. Last four bars are compressed in a 2-pip band on the 1.40245 session low with price under EMA20 and EMA50, RSI(14) near 40 and ATR(14) around 3 pips — no expansion until the European open.
Support: 1.40245, 1.40107
Resistance: 1.40386, 1.4043
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.40245 session low extends the lower-high chain toward the 1.40107 ny swing low
Reclaim of 1.40386 prior day hi puts the 1.40430 asia high back in play and negates the fade
London open is the first liquidity event that can break the 2-pip compression; ATR at 3 pips flatters any breakout signal
No USD/CAD calendar risk in the next 8h; US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 GMT is the next scheduled catalyst
Lower highs off the Asia high, compression into London open.
Asia session printed a fresh high at 1.40430 and was rejected immediately, price bleeding back through the ema20 near 1.40295 into a 1.40245–1.40255 session low compression with ATR down to under 3 pips. That 1.40430 stall matches the macro read — hawkish Macklem plus the crude bounce gave CAD a floor while the firm USD keeps the underlying bid intact.
Support: 1.40245, 1.4010, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40295, 1.40365, 1.4043
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the ema20 at 1.40295 would neutralise the lower-highs sequence; a push back to the 1.40365 swing high is the next test
Loss of the 1.40245 session low extends the pullback toward the 1.40100 prior pivot and the 1.40000 psych pivot
London open liquidity in roughly an hour is the first real test of this compression — Asia ranges this tight rarely survive it
05:16 UTC
Drifting lower off the Asia high · RSI 31 · price 1.40248
Lower highs / lower lows since 01:30 UTC, below EMA20.
Asia printed a fresh cycle high at 1.40430 and was rejected there with no follow-through, per the firm-USD/soft-CAD backdrop, and price has bled back in a tight descending channel of lower highs to the 1.40245 session low. RSI(14) near 31 with ATR(14) only ~3 pips — thin, grinding conditions into the London open, price now sitting on the 38.2% retrace of the 1.39959–1.40430 advance.
Support: 1.40245, 1.4020, 1.40107
Resistance: 1.40311, 1.4043
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.40311 would break the lower-high sequence that has held since the asia high
Sustained loss of the 1.40245 session low exposes the 1.40200 psych level, then the 1.40107 ny swing low
London open expansion after a sub-4-pip ATR Asia session is the main structural risk to this channel read
US ADP 4-week average at 12:15 GMT plus Fed speakers could reset the intraday range
05:04 UTC
Intraday downtrend off Asia high, momentum fading · RSI 34 · price 1.40248
Lower highs / lower lows since 01:45 UTC peak, now flat-lining at the session low.
Asia session printed a fresh high at 1.40430 and was rejected, with a clean chain of lower highs grinding price back to 1.40245 — the 38.2% retracement of the NY-to-Asia leg off 1.39959. RSI(14) at 34 and ATR(14) just 2.8 pips show the pullback is drift, not impulse, with the pair holding above the 1.4000 psych pivot the CAD story revolves around.
Support: 1.40245, 1.40195, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4032, 1.4043
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.40320 (ema20) breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 1.40245 session low exposes the 1.40195 fib 50% area
Fed speakers (Williams 14:05 GMT, Jefferson 14:20) later today could reprice the USD leg of this range
04:46 UTC
Intraday pullback after Asia high, momentum fading · RSI 42 · price 1.40262
Lower highs since 1.4043, base holding at 1.4025.
Asia posted a session high at 1.4043 — the highest since early August per the CAD read — then rejected it, and price has ground back to 1.4026 in a chain of lower highs, now trading below both EMA20 (1.4032) and EMA50. The 1.4025 session low has been tested twice, RSI(14) at 42 and ATR(14) just 3.3 pips, so this is thin, late-Asia drift rather than a directional break; Macklem's hawkish-leaning tone and the crude bounce are the stated brake on further CAD downside.
Support: 1.40252, 1.4018, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40323, 1.4039, 1.4043
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.40323 ema20 would negate the lower-high sequence
A 15m close below the 1.40252 session low exposes the 1.4018 prior shelf
1.4000 psych level remains the wider intraday pivot on any deeper unwind
Fed speakers Williams (14:05 GMT) and Jefferson (14:20 GMT) can reprice this read during NY hours
Asia high rejected, chain of lower highs into pre-London.
Asia session printed a fresh cycle high at 1.40430 and was immediately rejected, with price now grinding back to 1.40252 and holding below the 1.40320 ema20 into pre-London. Macklem's hawkish-leaning tone and the crude bounce have given CAD a modest floor, but the tape is a shallow drift lower on 3.6-pip ATR rather than an impulsive reversal, RSI(14) at 42.
Support: 1.40252, 1.4020, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4032, 1.4043
What it said to watch
Close below 1.40252 session low exposes the 1.40200 prior pivot
Reclaim of the 1.40320 ema20 would negate the asia high rejection
Sustained trade under 1.40000 psych pivot would break the intraday uptrend read
US Fed speakers later today and Wed flash PMIs could reset intraday ranges
Higher highs into 1.4043, now retracing inside a tight 1.4027–1.4043 band.
Asia session printed a fresh high at 1.4043 around 01:45 UTC — the highest since early August per the CAD read — then faded roughly 15 pips with no follow-through, leaving price back under the EMA20 near 1.40325 and RSI(14) at ~47. Holding the session low at 1.4027 keeps the shallow up-sequence off Monday's NY low at 1.39959 intact; ATR(14) at 3.5 pips means ranges are thin in this late-Asia hour.
Support: 1.4027, 1.40254, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40325, 1.4043
What it said to watch
A close below the prior low at 1.40254 breaks the rising sequence off 1.39959 and turns the 1.4027 session low into supply
Reclaiming the EMA20 and then the 1.4043 session high is required to resume the intraday advance
1.4000 psych pivot is the wider reference — acceptance above keeps the 1.4050+ zone in view
US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 GMT and Canada retail sales Thu 12:30 GMT can reset this intraday structure
USDCAD printed a session high at 1.40430 in early Asia hours — extending the CAD-weak, wide-front-end-spread backdrop — then faded roughly 15 pips into a clean chain of lower highs and now trades under the ema20 at 1.40330. RSI(14) near 46 and ATR(14) at 3.6 pips: the fade is orderly, not impulsive, with the session low 1.40270 holding on the last three attempts and the asia low 1.40254 the next shelf beneath.
Support: 1.4027, 1.40254, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4033, 1.40386, 1.4043
What it said to watch
A 15m close back above the ema20 at 1.40330 would negate the lower-highs sequence; reclaiming 1.40386 ny high puts the 1.40430 session high back in play
Loss of the 1.40270 session low and then the 1.40254 asia low confirms a deeper intraday leg toward the 1.4000 psych pivot
London open liquidity is the next structural test — Asia's range has been narrow and one-directional since the high
False break of Monday's high, lower highs since the Asia high.
Asia session pushed through Monday's 1.4039 prior high to a 1.4043 asia high — the cycle high since early August per the CAD read — then gave the whole leg back, price now trading 1.40292 under both EMA20 (1.40335) and EMA50. Lower highs have stacked since that spike and RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-40s; ATR(14) is a thin 3.6 pips, so the pullback is drift rather than impulse, with the session low at 1.4028 and the monday low at 1.40254 the nearest shelves.
Support: 1.4028, 1.40254
Resistance: 1.40335, 1.4039, 1.4043
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.4039 prior high would negate the false break read
Loss of 1.4028 session low then 1.40254 monday low confirms a lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.40335 ema20 needed before the 1.4043 asia high is back in play
Wed 13:45 GMT US S&P Global PMIs are the next macro catalyst for this pair
Higher highs into 1.4043, now pulling back inside a tight late-Asia range.
Price ground higher through the NY session and into Asia to a session high at 1.4043 — the firmest level since early August on the wide Fed/BoC spread — before a rejection there dragged it back under the EMA20 at 1.40345. RSI(14) has flattened near 50 and ATR(14) is just ~3.4 pips, so the last eight bars are pure consolidation above the asia low at 1.40254.
Support: 1.40288, 1.40254, 1.4020
Resistance: 1.40345, 1.4043
What it said to watch
Reclaiming the EMA20 and a close above the 1.40430 session high would extend the higher-high sequence
Loss of the 1.40288 swing low, then the 1.40254 asia low, breaks the rising intraday support line
Thin late-Asia liquidity keeps ranges compressed until London open
Wed 13:45 GMT US S&P Global PMIs are the next event capable of resetting this range
Higher highs / higher lows, breakout now retesting.
Slow grind higher out of the NY close, with Asia hours breaking the tight 1.40254–1.40336 range and printing a session high at 1.4043 before fading straight back to the breakout area; RSI(14) has cooled to neutral near 51. ATR(14) is just ~3.2 pips — late-Asia compression — with a firm post-FOMC USD and CAD pinned above the 1.4000 pivot the backdrop.
Support: 1.4029, 1.40254
Resistance: 1.4043, 1.4050
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 1.4043 session high would extend the leg toward the 1.4050 psych level
Loss of the 1.4029 swing low, then 1.40254 asia low, invalidates the breakout-retest read
London open liquidity typically expands this range; ADP 4-week average and Fed speakers later today are the near-term risk
Higher highs / higher lows, pullback from asia high.
Asia session extended the grind, printing a fresh window high at 1.40430 before fading back to 1.40357 with RSI(14) near 57 — no exhaustion, no follow-through either. Price holds above EMA20/EMA50 and the higher-low chain off 1.40254/1.40288 is intact, with the 175bp Fed/BoC gap keeping CAD on the back foot.
Support: 1.40288, 1.40254, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4043, 1.4050
What it said to watch
A 15m close below 1.40288 swing low breaks the intraday higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 1.40430 asia high opens the 1.40500 round number
ATR(14) near 3 pips — thin Asia ranges; London open likely expands the range
Loss of the 1.40000 psych level would invalidate the uptrend read entirely
Higher highs / higher lows off 1.3996, fresh session high.
Asia hours held a 4-pip coil around the 1.4032 asia base before a breakout into a fresh session high at 1.4043, the highest print since early August; RSI(14) ~65, not stretched. ATR(14) is only ~2.6 pips — this is a grind, with Macklem's hawkish Halifax tone keeping CAD from giving more ground.
Support: 1.4032, 1.40254, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4043, 1.4050
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 1.4043 session high opens the 1.4050 round number
Loss of the 1.4032 asia base and then the 1.40254 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Fed speakers later today (Williams, Jefferson, Barkin) and Wed US flash PMIs are the near-term risk to this read
Repeated failure to hold above the 1.4000 psych pivot area would mark exhaustion in the leg
02:16 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 73 · price 1.4042
Higher highs and higher lows; shelf breakout into fresh window high.
Asia hours broke the flat 1.4032 shelf and pushed to a fresh window high at 1.4043, extending the grind that has held price above the 1.4000 psych pivot all session — consistent with the 175bp Fed-BoC gap keeping CAD near its weakest since early August. RSI(14) near 72 is hot but normal for this drift; ATR(14) only ~3.5 pips, so ranges are thin.
Support: 1.4032, 1.4025, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4043, 1.4050
What it said to watch
Acceptance above 1.4043 session high opens the 1.4050 psych area as the next reference
A close back under the 1.4032 shelf would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the 1.4025 asia low breaks the higher-low chain built through the Asia session
Liquidity picks up at London open; thin Asia ranges can flatter the breakout
02:02 UTC
Grinding uptrend, at window high · RSI 72 · price 1.4042
Higher lows since London, flat base broken to fresh highs.
Asia hours broke the flat 1.4032 base that held through the post-NY lull and pushed to a fresh window high at 1.4043, RSI(14) near 72 with ATR just 2.8 pips — a thin-liquidity drift rather than an impulse. The grind fits the CAD backdrop: widest Fed/BoC spread keeping USD/CAD bid, while Macklem's hawkish Halifax tone and the crude bounce have so far capped follow-through above 1.4000.
Support: 1.4032, 1.4026, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4043, 1.4050
What it said to watch
Acceptance above 1.4043 session high opens the 1.4050 round number
Loss of the 1.4032 asia base invalidates the breakout read and puts 1.4026 asia low back in play
No scheduled USD/CAD data in the next 8h; London open liquidity is the first real test of the higher-lows chain
Higher highs / higher lows, Asia shelf broken upward.
Asia has lifted out of the tight 1.4032 shelf and is pressing the session high at 1.4039, with price above both EMA20 and EMA50 and RSI(14) near 66 — hot but not extreme. The bid reflects the same spread-and-oil backdrop keeping CAD at the weak end of its range near the 1.4000 pivot; ATR(14) is only ~3 pips, so this is a thin, low-range Asian grind rather than an impulse.
Support: 1.4032, 1.40254, 1.40107
Resistance: 1.4039, 1.4050
What it said to watch
Sustained acceptance above the 1.4039 session high opens the 1.4050 psych area
Failure back under the 1.4032 asia shelf, then 1.40254 asia low, breaks the higher-low chain
London open liquidity typically expands the 3-pip ATR conditions seen through Asia
Fed speakers and ADP data later Tuesday could reprice the USD leg of this move
Higher highs into a tight late-session range under 1.4039.
USDCAD ground higher through the London-NY hours to a 1.40386 NY high, then compressed into a 1.40254-1.40386 band as thin early-Asia liquidity took over; the last bar pushed back to 1.40367, retesting the range top. Spread-driven CAD pressure and softer crude keep the tape drifting north of the 1.4000 area, with ATR at just ~3.4 pips reflecting the current low-range conditions.
Support: 1.40288, 1.40254, 1.4010
Resistance: 1.40386, 1.4050
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.40386 ny high extends the higher-high chain toward the 1.4050 psych level
Loss of the 1.40288 range low, then the 1.40254 asia low, breaks the intraday higher-low sequence
Asia-session liquidity is thin; the London open can invalidate this range read quickly
Higher highs / higher lows, now coiled under the session high.
Thin Asia-session tape: USDCAD has coiled in a 4-pip band around 1.4031 after tagging the session high at 1.40386 late in NY hours, with ATR(14) compressed to ~3.6 pips. Demand stepped in twice at the 1.40254 session low, keeping the rising support sequence off the 1.4000 psych pivot intact as spread-driven CAD pressure and softer crude persist.
Support: 1.40254, 1.40209, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40386, 1.4050
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.40386 session high extends the intraday leg toward the 1.4050 round number
Loss of the 1.40254 session low breaks the rising support line and reopens 1.40209 swing low
Acceptance back under the 1.4000 psych level would invalidate the intraday uptrend read
Liquidity returns at London open; US PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC are the next scheduled driver
Thin Asia session has USDCAD pinned in a 3-pip coil at 1.4032 after the late-NY dip to the asia low at 1.40254 was bought back, with the prior high at 1.40386 still unchallenged. Price holds above EMA20 and EMA50 and well clear of the 1.4000 psych level, consistent with the spread- and soft-crude-driven CAD pressure described in the session read; RSI(14) mid-range, ATR(14) under 3 pips.
Support: 1.40254, 1.4010, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40386, 1.4050
What it said to watch
A 15m close above the 1.40386 prior high would extend the higher-low chain toward the 1.40500 round number
Loss of the 1.40254 asia low breaks the rising support line and puts the 1.40100 ny low back in play
ADP 4-week average 12:15 UTC and Fed speakers (Williams, Jefferson) from 14:05 UTC could break this coil
Sustained slippage back under the 1.4000 psych level would invalidate the grinding-uptrend read
00:46 UTC
Uptrend, momentum flat in Asia · RSI 50 · price 1.40312
Higher highs/higher lows into 1.4039, now tight consolidation under it.
USDCAD ground higher through the NY session to a session high at 1.40386 before stalling; early Asia has flattened into a 1.40254–1.40336 coil with ATR down to ~3 pips and RSI(14) back to neutral near 50. Backdrop is unchanged CAD pressure from the Fed/BoC front-end gap and softer crude, with price holding the 1.4000 psych level on a rising sequence of intraday lows.
Support: 1.40254, 1.4010, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40386, 1.4050
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.40254 asia low breaks the rising support line and the higher-low chain
Reclaim and hold above the 1.40386 session high opens the path toward the 1.40500 psych area
Thin Asia ranges typically expand at the London open — the coil is not a structure, just low participation
US ADP 4-week average and Fed speakers later Tuesday could break the Asian range in either direction
Higher lows into a tight Asian coil below the session high.
NY hours pushed to 1.40386 and were rejected there, after which Asia has coiled in a 3-pip band around the ema20 at 1.40325, RSI(14) back to neutral near 47. Structure is still a higher-low chain off 1.39959 with the 1.4000 psych level well below, the tape reflecting the Fed/BoC spread and soft crude rather than any fresh catalyst.
Support: 1.40254, 1.4010, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40325, 1.40386
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40386 session high would resume the higher-high sequence
Loss of the 1.40254 asia low opens the 1.40100 swing low
Acceptance back under 1.40000 psych would break the rising support line
London open liquidity likely resolves the current 3-pip coil; ATR near 3 pips understates post-open ranges
Higher highs into 1.4039, now coiled in a tight Asia-open range.
Grind higher through the London-NY hours took price from 1.3996 to a session high of 1.40386, where it was rejected late in the NY session before a shallow dip to the 1.40254 swing low. Price is now pinned in a 1-pip Asia-open range around 1.40327 on very thin participation, with ATR(14) down to roughly 3 pips; the broader driver remains the 175bp Fed/BoC gap and soft crude keeping CAD offered above the 1.4000 psych level.
Support: 1.40254, 1.4018, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40386, 1.4050
What it said to watch
Sustained acceptance above the 1.40386 session high extends the higher-high chain toward 1.4050 round number
Loss of the 1.40254 swing low breaks the intraday rising support and exposes the 1.40180 prior shelf
Liquidity returns with the London open; the current tight range is thin-market compression, not accepted structure
ADP 4-week average and Fed speakers (Williams, Jefferson) later today can re-price the USD leg of this range
00:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum flat · RSI 49 · price 1.40327
Higher highs into NY, now coiling below the session high.
USDCAD ground up from 1.3996 through the NY session to a session high of 1.40386 as crude stayed soft and the 175bp Fed/BoC gap kept CAD offered. Early Asia has been mechanical: a rollover dip to the 1.40256 asia low was bought back and the last twelve bars sit inside a 1.5-pip coil at 1.4032, ATR(14) down to 3.4 pips with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 1.40256, 1.4010, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40386, 1.4050
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 1.40386 session high opens the 1.4050 psych area
M15 close below the 1.40256 asia low breaks the coil and puts the 1.40100 ny low back in play
No US or Canadian data in the next 8h — Asia-hours liquidity is thin and ranges can widen sharply on the London handover