Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4299 triple top; neckline broken.
The 1.4293–1.4299 triple top gave way once the neckline near 1.4193 broke. Price has since printed a clean lower-high, lower-low sequence about 270 pips off the peak, below EMA20 and EMA50 with EMA20 under EMA50, as hawkish BoC repricing, five-month-high oil and a softer USD drove the leg; Monday's soft CPI bounce above 1.4100 faded within hours. The last three bars carved only shallow new lows into the 1.4032 swing low, with RSI oversold and price pressing against the descending trendline. ATR near 26 pips shows no compression yet.
Support: 1.4032, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4112, 1.4134, 1.4193
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4112 swing high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
A recovery into the 1.4134 38.2% fib, the prior swing low, is the first test of whether it now caps as resistance
Failure to hold the 1.4032 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4000 round number
Reclaim of the 1.4193 neckline would negate the triple top read
Canada Retail Sales and US S&P Global PMIs, Fri Oct 23, could materially shift this read ahead of the Oct 28 BoC
Oil reversal on US-Iran or Hormuz headlines removes CAD's main prop and is the key two-way risk
17:03 UTC
Downtrend, oversold but not yet basing · RSI 24 · price 1.40473
Triple top at 1.4293-1.4299, range floor broken, lower highs and lower lows since.
USDCAD carved a triple top at 1.4293-1.4299 and broke its 1.4195 range floor. Since then it has printed clean lower highs and lower lows down to the 1.4032 swing low, a slide that tracks BoC-hike repricing, firm oil and a softer USD after weak US housing data. EMA20 sits below EMA50 with price under both, the descending trendline off the 1.4222 lower high caps near 1.4090, and RSI(14) is oversold while ATR holds steady near 27 pips rather than expanding.
Support: 1.4032, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4112, 1.4134, 1.4195
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4112 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
A rebound into the 1.4134 38.2% fib, where the prior low sits, is the first area to watch for rejection or break
Sustained trade below the 1.4032 swing low exposes the 1.4000 round number
Canada Retail Sales and US S&P Global PMIs on Fri Oct 23 could materially shift this read
13:02 UTC
Downtrend, extended and oversold · RSI 24 · price 1.40544
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4299 triple top.
Three failed pushes into the 1.4293–1.4299 triple top gave way to a break of the 1.4200 neckline, and price has since printed a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Firm oil and a softer USD on fading Fed-hike bets have carried the slide back to the 1.4045 window low, where the September rally began. Price sits below both EMAs after the bearish EMA20/EMA50 cross. RSI near 24 is deeply stretched, while ATR around 26 pips shows a steady rather than accelerating decline.
Support: 1.4045, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4112, 1.4200, 1.4299
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.4045 window low opens the 1.4000 round number
Recovery above the 1.4112 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and the descending trendline
Reclaim of the 1.4200 neckline would neutralise the triple top read
Canada Retail Sales and US PMIs on Fri Oct 23 could materially shift this read; an oil reversal would also undercut CAD
09:03 UTC
Downtrend, extending into oversold · RSI 23 · price 1.40605
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4300 triple top; 1.4200 floor broken.
Three failed probes at 1.4293–1.4299 formed a triple top. The break of the 1.4200 prior floor turned the multi-week range into a steady sequence of lower highs, with the latest swing high capping at 1.4112. CAD has drawn support from oil and a softer USD, and the soft Canada CPI miss has not slowed the slide. Price is closing at the recent low near 1.4060 with RSI(14) around 23 and ATR(14) holding near 26 pips, so the downside leg is stretched but not compressing.
Support: 1.4060, 1.4027, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4112, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4112 swing high breaks the lower-highs sequence and the trendline
Failure to hold the 1.4060 recent low exposes the 1.4027 window low and the 1.4000 psych level
A recovery that stalls at the 1.4200 prior floor would confirm it as resistance
Fri 23 Oct: Canada Retail Sales 12:30 UTC and US S&P Global PMIs 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Crude and Strait of Hormuz headlines remain the dominant CAD driver
05:03 UTC
Downtrend, stretched into oversold · RSI 28 · price 1.40814
Lower highs and lower lows below the broken 1.4200 range floor.
USDCAD capped three times at the 1.4293–1.4299 triple top, then broke the 1.4200 range floor and has printed lower highs and lower lows since, opening this week with a downside gap below 1.4136 and extending to a 1.4070 swing low. The slide reflects a softer USD and oil-supported CAD despite hot US PPI and retail sales. Price sits below both EMAs after EMA20 crossed under EMA50, RSI is near 28 in oversold territory, and ATR(14) around 26 pips points to a steady grind rather than an expanding move; the 1.4112 bounce high is the nearest cap, with the 1.4025 rally base and 1.4000 psych level below.
Support: 1.4070, 1.4025, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4112, 1.4136, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.4070 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4025 rally base and 1.4000 psych level
Recovery through the 1.4112 bounce high and the 1.4136 gap fill would mark the first break in the lower-high sequence
A return to the 1.4200 range floor, near the 61.8% retrace of the triple top leg, is the retest line for the breakdown
A higher low on price while RSI stays oversold would signal a bullish rsi divergence forming
Canada retail sales and US PMIs on Fri Oct 23 could materially shift this read; oil and Hormuz headlines remain a swing factor
01:03 UTC
Downtrend, extending but stretched · RSI 32 · price 1.41019
Lower highs and lower lows since the triple top at 1.4300.
Three failures at 1.4290–1.4300 through October formed a triple top. The loss of the 1.4200 broken floor then turned structure into lower highs and lower lows, down to a 1.4070 swing low. The slide tracked an AI-led tech selloff that dragged US front-end yields lower despite hot CPI/PPI, and soft Canadian CPI has since stalled the CAD leg near 1.4100. RSI near 32 and ATR(14) around 26 pips describe an orderly but stretched decline, with price below both EMAs and the 61.8% fib retracement sitting on the old 1.4200 floor.
Support: 1.4070, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4136, 1.4200, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4136 gap fill and the 38.2% fib (~1.4158) would break the lower-highs line and mark the first higher high since the triple top
Failure to hold the 1.4070 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.4000 psych
A rebound into the 1.4200 broken floor (61.8% fib) tests whether the range break holds
Canada Retail Sales and US S&P PMIs on Fri Oct 23 could materially shift this read