USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Tuesday, 20 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend paused, slow recovery off day low · RSI 66 · price 1.40655
Higher lows from 1.4032; testing 38.2–50% retrace of the day's drop.
London broke the Asian low at 1.4073 and NY extended to a 1.4032 day low as oil strength and BoC hike bets lifted CAD, before a rejection there started a grind of higher lows along the recovery line. Late-session drift has printed a 1.4067 session high, with price stalling between the 38.2% and 50% retrace of the day's drop and just under the broken asian low.
Support: 1.4056, 1.4044, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4067, 1.4073, 1.4106
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4073 asian low reclaims the broken Asian range; 1.4106 asian high is the next reference
Close below the 1.4056 swing low and the recovery line returns focus to the 1.4044 higher low and 1.4032 day low
Session high at 1.4067 is the near cap on the bounce; thin post-NY trade keeps ATR near 2.6 pips
US-Iran deal headlines and WTI moves can reprice CAD quickly outside data hours
Higher lows off the 1.4032 day low; 1.4055–1.4065 range top being tested.
USDCAD slid from 1.4107 through Asia and London on oil-backed CAD strength and soft US housing data, then swept to a 1.4032 day low at 13:30 UTC before turning higher. Higher lows at 1.4043 and the 1.4055 range low have carried price back to the 1.4065 range top in a thin early Asia session, RSI(14) near 72 and ATR(14) under 3 pips.
Support: 1.40555, 1.40427, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40649, 1.40696, 1.40813
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4065 range top opens the 50% fib of the 1.4107–1.4032 drop at 1.4070, then the London high near 1.4081
Loss of the 1.4055 range low and the rising trendline puts the 1.4043 higher low back in play
Break below the 1.4032 day low resumes the lower-low sequence
US-Iran and oil headlines can override the thin Asian tape; no scheduled USD/CAD data in the next 8h
23:16 UTC
Rebounding off day low, momentum flat · RSI 56 · price 1.40628
Higher lows since NY low, tight range capped at 1.4064.
The Asia-London slide from 1.4107 bottomed at the 1.4032 day low early in NY hours, with CAD bid on oil and BoC hike bets, then rejected sharply. A run of higher lows has since lifted price into a 1.4055–1.4064 consolidation. The early Asia session is pressing the range top, just above the 38.2% retrace of the day decline, and ATR has compressed to under 3 pips.
Support: 1.40554, 1.40427, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40644, 1.40696, 1.40813
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4064 range top opens the 1.4070 50% retrace and the 1.4081 swing high
A break of the 1.4055 range floor and the higher-lows trendline puts the 1.4043 higher low back in play
Failure at 1.4043 exposes the 1.4032 day low
No scheduled data in the next 8h; oil and US-Iran headlines are the main driver that could shift this read
Post-NY tight range 1.4055–1.4064 above rising lows.
London broke the asian low at 1.4073 and NY extended to a 1.4032 day low around the soft US housing data, with USD softness and the CAD hike-bet bid behind the slide. The bounce has printed rising lows back to the 38.2% asia-ny fib, but the range top at 1.4064 has capped three tests into the late session and rollover.
Support: 1.40555, 1.40451, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40644, 1.40725, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4064 range top opens a retest of the 1.4073 asian low, with the 1.4100 round number beyond
Break of the 1.4055 range low and the rising lows line exposes the 1.4045 london low and the 1.4032 day low
Asia session starting on thin post-rollover liquidity; no scheduled data in the next 8h, US-Iran and oil headlines are the main risk to this read
Post-NY coil 1.4055–1.4064 after V-recovery from 1.4032.
USDCAD slid from 1.4107 through Asia and London to a 1.4032 session low into the NY open, as soft US housing data and BoC hike bets pressed the pair, then recovered about 30 pips above the 38.2% retracement. Since late NY it has coiled between the 1.4055 swing low and the 1.4064 range top, with three tests of the top heading into the Asia session.
Support: 1.4055, 1.4043, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4064, 1.4070, 1.4079
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4064 range top opens the 50% fib at 1.4070, with the 61.8% fib at 1.4079 above
Break of the 1.4055 swing low puts the 1.4043 higher low back in play; a loss there exposes the 1.4032 session low
US-Iran and oil headlines during Asia could materially shift CAD and this read
Thu US jobless claims and Fri Canada retail sales are the next scheduled catalysts
HL chain off 1.4032 session low; tight 1.4056–1.4064 range into Asia.
USDCAD slid from 1.4107 through Asia and London, then bottomed at the 1.4032 session low in early NY as soft US housing data, lower oil-driven yields and BoC hike bets weighed. Higher lows since have lifted price to the 38.2% retrace near 1.4061, with the NY high at 1.4064 capping a tight range low-to-high of 1.4056–1.4064 into the new Asia session; RSI(14) near 64, ATR around 3.6 pips in thin rollover trade.
Support: 1.4056, 1.4043, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4064, 1.4073
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4064 NY high clears the range and opens the path to the 1.4073 Asian low, the London breakdown point
Loss of the 1.4056 range low and the rising trendline puts the 1.4043 higher low and 1.4032 session low back in play
US-Iran deal headlines and oil moves remain the main swing factor for this read during Asia
22:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalled into flat range · RSI 55 · price 1.40597
Post-NY consolidation 1.4055–1.4064 after rebound from 1.4032 day low.
USDCAD broke below the Asian low at 1.4073 at London open and extended to a 1.4032 day low in NY hours. Oil strength and soft US housing data drove the move, which briefly undercut the 1.4040 monthly-low area before reverting. Since the 1.4043 swing low held, price has compressed between the 1.4055 range floor and the 1.4064 NY high, right at the 38.2% retrace, with RSI(14) neutral near 55 and ATR at about 3.4 pips in thin early-Asia trade.
Support: 1.40555, 1.4043, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40644, 1.40725
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4064 NY high opens the 1.4073 Asian low and the 50% retrace near 1.4070
Loss of the 1.4055 range floor and the rising lows exposes the 1.4043 swing low, then the 1.4032 day low
A fresh break below the 1.4032 day low would turn the earlier dip under 1.4040 from a false break into a lower-low
US-Iran deal and oil headlines can jolt CAD during thin Asia session liquidity
V-recovery from NY low, higher lows, capped at 1.4064 in tight late-NY/early-Asia band.
USDCAD slid through the Asian and London sessions to a 1.4032 session low early in NY, with soft US housing data and lower oil-driven yields weighing on USD. It then V-reversed to the 38.2% fib of the 1.4107–1.4032 drop. Since late NY it has held a 4.5-pip band between the 1.4055 range floor and the 1.4064 late NY high, and the opening early-Asia bar was rejected again at that high.
Support: 1.40555, 1.40427, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40644, 1.40725, 1.40813
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4064 late NY high clears the 38.2% fib cap and brings the 1.4072 old Asian low back into play, with the 1.4081 pre-London high above
Loss of the 1.4055 range floor exposes the 1.4043 higher low. Failure there reopens the 1.4032 session low
US-Iran / oil headlines are the main swing factor for CAD in thin Asia session liquidity
Lower highs from Asia to early NY; higher lows since the 1.4032 session low, now a tight 1.4055–1.4064 band.
USD/CAD bled lower through Asia and London as CAD tracked oil and BoC hike bets, bottoming at a 1.4032 session low in early NY before a fast false break back above 1.4039. Since then the pair has built higher lows off the ny base at 1.4043, and the late-NY rally stalled at the 1.4064 ny high near the 38.2% day-move fib. It now drifts in a thin 1.4055–1.4064 band into the Asia session, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 1.4055, 1.4043, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4064, 1.4071
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4064 ny high clears the 38.2% day-move fib and opens the 1.4071 london break area
Loss of the 1.4055 late ny low and the rising lows line exposes the ny base at 1.4043, then the 1.4032 session low
US-Iran and oil headlines remain the main CAD driver; thin Asia liquidity can exaggerate moves
21:31 UTC
Downtrend paused, rebounding off day low · RSI 51 · price 1.40598
Higher lows off 1.4032, tight range under NY high.
The Asia-London slide, driven by oil strength and soft US housing data, ran to a 1.4032 day low early in NY. A rejection there and a higher low chain at 1.4043 carried price to the 1.4064 NY high, near the fib 50% retrace of the decline. Post-NY trade is compressing between 1.4055 and 1.4064 into the thin rollover hour, with ATR near 4 pips.
Support: 1.40555, 1.40427, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40644, 1.40725
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4064 NY high clears the fib 50% cap and opens the 1.4072 Asia low
Break below the 1.4055 range low and the higher-low trendline exposes 1.4043, then the 1.4032 day low
US-Iran deal or Hormuz headlines moving oil could jolt this thin post-NY range
Asia/London lower highs and lows to 1.4032; NY bounce capped at 1.4064, tight range since.
Steady Asia-London selling took USDCAD from 1.4109 to a session low of 1.4032 at the NY open, with weak US housing data and firm oil weighing on the pair. The NY rebound met rejection at the 1.4064 NY high near the 38.2% fib, and price has compressed between 1.4055 and 1.4064 since 17:30 UTC into the new Asia session.
Support: 1.40555, 1.40427, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40644, 1.40725
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4064 NY high clears the 38.2% fib and opens the 1.4072 Asian low
Break of the 1.4055 NY floor exposes the 1.4043 NY pullback low, then the 1.4032 session low
US-Iran deal or oil headlines could break the quiet Asian range
USD/CAD sold off from 1.4106 through Asia, cracked the Asian low at 1.4073 at London open and bottomed at the 1.4032 day low in early NY as oil strength and softer US yields and housing data weighed on USD. Higher lows since then lifted price to the 1.4064 NY high, near the 38.2% retrace of the decline, and late NY is compressing between that level and the 1.4055 swing low, sitting on the EMA20 just under the EMA50.
Support: 1.4055, 1.4043, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4064, 1.4073
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4055 swing low exposes the 1.4043 higher low and the 1.4032 day low
Close above the 1.4064 NY high / 38.2% fib opens a retest of the 1.4073 Asian low
A break of the rising support line from 1.4032 would end the NY higher-low sequence
No scheduled data in the next 8h; US-Iran deal and oil headlines during Asia are the main risk to this read
Asian range broken lower; day low 1.4032 then tight 1.4055–1.4064 range.
London broke below the 1.4073–1.4106 Asian range and the slide extended to a 1.4032 day low early in NY, as soft US housing data and firm oil weighed on the pair. The late-NY rebound met rejection twice at the 1.4064 session high, near the 38.2% retrace, and price is now coiling just above the 1.4055 swing low with RSI(14) flat near 51.
Support: 1.40554, 1.40427, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40644, 1.40725
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.4043 range low re-exposes the 1.4032 day low
Close above the 1.4064 session high opens the path back to the 1.4073 Asian low
US-Iran deal and oil headlines remain the main swing factor into thin Asia session hours
Asian low broken at London open, day low in NY, bounce capped at 38.2%, rising trendline lost.
The grind lower from 1.4109 broke the 1.4073 Asian low at the London open and printed a 1.4032 day low early in NY, as softer yields, weak US housing data and firm oil kept CAD bid. The NY session high at 1.4064 was a rejection near the 38.2% retrace, and price has slipped through the rising trendline off the day low into late NY. It now sits just above 1.4050 psych.
Support: 1.4050, 1.4043, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4064, 1.4073
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4043 swing low exposes the 1.4032 day low
Close back above the 1.4064 session high reopens the broken 1.4073 Asian low
US-Iran deal or oil headlines overnight could materially shift this read
Lower highs through Asia/London into a 1.4032 day low; NY rebound now compressing in 1.4056–1.4064.
USD/CAD bled lower through Asia and London, then printed a one-month day low at 1.4032 in early NY as weak US housing data and firm oil weighed on the pair. The rebound from the 1.4043 higher low stalled at the 1.4064 NY high, near the 38.2% fib of the drop, and late NY is compressing in 1.4056–1.4064 with the last bar testing the range floor. RSI(14) is near 50 and ATR(14) is about 5 pips.
Support: 1.40564, 1.40427, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40644, 1.40813
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4056 range floor puts the 1.4043 higher low back in play
Failure to hold the 1.4032 day low confirms a fresh lower-low
Close above the 1.4064 NY high and the 38.2% fib opens the path to the 1.4081 pre-ldn high
US-Iran deal headlines and oil swings during the Asia session could materially shift this read
Lower highs into 1.4032 NY low, higher-low recovery capped at 1.4064.
USD/CAD bled lower through Asia and London, and NY extended to a 1.4032 low after the US housing misses. Iran-deal hopes and firm oil also weighed on USD against a BoC-supported CAD. The rebound stalled at the 1.4064 late-NY high near the 38.2% retrace, and price has just slipped below the rising trendline off the NY low into 1.4056.
Support: 1.4049, 1.4043, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4064, 1.4073
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4049 higher low exposes the 1.4043 swing low and the 1.4032 NY low
M15 close above the 1.4064 late-NY high clears the 38.2% retrace and puts the 1.4073 Asian low in play
US-Iran deal headlines and oil swings are the main driver into the Asia session; no scheduled USD or CAD data in the next 8h
Higher lows off 1.4032 day low, capped at 1.4064 NY high.
USDCAD broke the 1.4073 Asian low at London open and slid to a 1.4032 day low near the NY open. Soft US housing data and Iran-deal oil and yield moves weighed on USD. After London close, price has built a higher-low chain along a rising trendline. It is now stalling at the 1.4064 NY high, close to the 38.2% fib of the day's decline, with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 1.40564, 1.4043, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40644, 1.40725
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4064 NY high / 38.2% fib opens a retest of the 1.4073 Asian low
Break of the 1.4056 higher low snaps the rising trendline and the bounce structure
Loss of the 1.4043 swing low exposes the 1.4032 day low and resumption of the downtrend
US-Iran deal headlines via oil and yields remain the main overnight shock risk during the Asia session
19:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend paused, rebound off NY low · RSI 58 · price 1.40611
Higher lows since 1.4032 low, consolidating 1.4056–1.4064 below 38.2% retrace.
The Asia-London slide on broad USD softness and firm CAD took out the 1.4050 monthly low into a 1.4032 session low at 13:30 UTC, then reversed. A higher-low chain since then has lifted price to 1.4061 in late NY, where it is stalling at the ny high of 1.4064, the 38.2% retrace of the day's drop. The range low at 1.4056 sits underneath.
Support: 1.4056, 1.4043, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4064, 1.4073
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4064 ny high (38.2% retrace) opens the 1.4073 asian low
Loss of the 1.4056 range low exposes the 1.4043 higher low and rising trendline
Break under the 1.4043 higher low puts the 1.4032 session low back in play and voids the false-break read
US-Iran deal and oil headlines remain the main driver; no scheduled data in the next 8h
Higher lows off the 1.4032 day low; rising trendline just broken.
London broke the Asian low at 1.4073 and the slide ran to a 1.4032 day low at NY open, with soft US housing data and firm BoC hike pricing pressing USD/CAD. The late-NY recovery off that low stalled at the 1.4064 session high. Price has now slipped under the rising trendline off the NY low, sitting on the 23.6% retracement near 1.4057 with RSI(14) neutral around 52.
Support: 1.4043, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4064, 1.4073
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4043 higher lows ends the recovery structure and exposes the 1.4032 day low
M15 close above the 1.4064 session high reopens the broken asian low at 1.4073
No scheduled USD/CAD data in the next 8h; oil and US-Iran headlines are the main swing factor into the Asia session
19:02 UTC
Downtrend, stalling in late NY · RSI 53 · price 1.40568
Lower highs from 1.4111 broken by NY rebound; consolidation above 1.4043.
USDCAD fell from 1.4111 through Asia and London on firm BoC hike bets. Around the NY open, after weak US housing data, it made a false break of 1.4040 to a 1.4032 day low, then rebuilt from a 1.4043 higher low. The rebound stalled at the 1.4064 NY high, just above the 38.2% fib of the day decline. Price is now easing back under the ema50 at 1.4059 in late NY hours.
Support: 1.4050, 1.4043, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4059, 1.4064, 1.4072
What it said to watch
Close back below the 1.4050 monthly low exposes the 1.4043 higher low and the 1.4032 day low
Close above the 1.4064 NY high and the 38.2% fib opens a return to the 1.4072 Asian low
Oil or US-Iran headlines in thin post-NY trade can shift CAD and this read
Lower highs through London; higher lows off 1.4032 day low, capped at 1.4064.
London broke below the Asian low at 1.4073 and pressed the pair to a 1.4032 day low early NY, as Iran-deal hopes pulled oil and yields lower and soft US housing data weighed on USD. Higher lows formed from the london base near 1.4044 and lifted price to a 1.4064 ny high, but that rebound is fading after London close, back toward EMA20 near 1.4055 and the fib 38.2 at 1.4052.
Support: 1.4052, 1.4044, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4064, 1.4073
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4064 ny high reopens the 1.4073 asian low
Failure to hold the 1.4052 fib 38.2 exposes the london base at 1.4044 and the 1.4032 day low
US-Iran deal headlines can swing oil and yields and shift this read; no scheduled data in the next 8h
Higher lows off 1.4032 session low, breakout from 1.4043–1.4059 consolidation.
USD/CAD bled lower through Asia and London on BoC hike bets and soft US housing data, then printed a 1.4032 session low early in NY before rebounding along a higher-low chain. In late NY trade price broke out of the 1.4043–1.4059 consolidation and is stalling at the NY high of 1.4064, which sits on the 38.2% fib of the day's decline. The Asia low at 1.4073 (50% fib) caps overhead.
Support: 1.4059, 1.4043, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4064, 1.4073, 1.4081
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4059 prior high returns price to the 1.4043–1.4059 consolidation
A break of the rebound line and the 1.4043 higher low exposes the 1.4032 session low
Acceptance above the 1.4073 Asia low / 50% fib opens the 1.4081 61.8% fib
US-Iran deal headlines can jolt oil and the USD in thin post-London trade
Higher lows since NY low; push above post-NY range top.
USDCAD slid through the Asian range and London, printing a day low at 1.4032 early in NY after the US housing misses, with oil-supported CAD adding to the drop. Since then price has built higher lows at 1.4043 and pushed past the 1.4059 prior high, stalling at a 1.4064 session high on the 38.2% retracement of the drop, with the 1.4073 Asian low and 50% level overhead.
Support: 1.4059, 1.4043, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4064, 1.4073
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.4073 Asian low and 50% retracement would extend the bounce beyond a routine correction
A break of the rising lows trendline and the 1.4043 higher low would put the 1.4032 day low back in play
Failure to hold 1.4059 turns the prior high break into a false break back into the 1.4043–1.4060 range
US-Iran headlines moving oil could shift this read at any time; no scheduled data in the next 8h
17:46 UTC
Downtrend, late-NY rebound pressing range top · RSI 59 · price 1.40601
Lower highs from 1.4112 to a 1.4032 NY low, higher lows since.
USD/CAD slid from the 1.4112 prior high, breaking the Asian low at London open and printing a 1.4032 session low early in NY, as firm oil, BoC hike pricing and the soft US housing data weighed on the pair. The dip below 1.4040 was quickly reclaimed, and the pair has since built a 1.4043–1.4061 range, with higher lows along a rising trendline. Late NY price is pressing the ny high, just under the 38.2% fib at 1.4063, with price sitting right on the EMA50.
Support: 1.40528, 1.4043, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40612, 1.40725, 1.41121
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4061 ny high / 38.2% fib opens 1.4072, where the asian low aligns with the 50% fib
Loss of the 1.4053 higher low and the rising trendline returns focus to the 1.4043 range low and 1.4032 session low
Break of the 1.4032 session low resumes the downtrend leg
US-Iran or oil headlines could move this read at any time; no scheduled data in the next 8h
17:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in late NY · RSI 56 · price 1.40559
Higher lows inside 1.4043–1.4060 NY range after session low.
USD/CAD fell steadily through Asia and London and broke below the 1.4073 Asian low at London open. It flushed to a 1.4032 session low after the 12:30 UTC US housing-starts miss, with a soft USD and firm oil keeping CAD bid. After London close it has carved higher lows inside a 1.4043–1.4060 consolidation and is now pressing the 1.4060 NY high, a level that has capped price three times and sits at the 50–61.8% fib of the London–NY drop.
Support: 1.4043, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4060, 1.4071, 1.4081
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4060 NY high clears the 61.8% fib and opens the 1.4071 Asian low
Acceptance above 1.4071 brings the 1.4081 swing high, the fib anchor, into play
Break of the NY higher lows trendline and the 1.4043 range floor reopens the 1.4032 session low
No scheduled USD/CAD data in the next 8h; Brent and US-Iran headlines can still move CAD into the Asia session
17:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after NY low · RSI 55 · price 1.40531
Lower highs from 1.4112; compressing in a 1.4043–1.4060 NY range.
A steady Asia-London slide from 1.4112 broke below 1.4050 as Brent strength and a softer USD lifted CAD. The NY open spiked to a 1.4032 session low and was quickly rejected. Since then price has compressed in a 1.4043–1.4060 NY range, capped under the 38.2% fib of the daily drop, with RSI near 55.
Support: 1.4043, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4060, 1.4073
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4060 range high and the 38.2% fib breaks the post-low consolidation and exposes the 1.4073 Asian low
Loss of the 1.4043 ny range low reopens the 1.4032 session low
Oil and US-Iran headlines remain the main CAD driver; no scheduled USD or CAD data in the next 8h
17:03 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in NY range · RSI 52 · price 1.40531
Lower highs from Asia into London; NY 1.4043–1.4060 range with rising lows.
USDCAD slid from the Asian range through London as oil-led CAD strength and a softer USD broke it below 1.4050, and weak US housing data pushed it to a 1.4032 session low that was rejected within one bar. Since then NY has compressed between the 1.4043 range low and the 1.4060 range high, with rising lows and price near the 23.6% retrace of the 24h decline. RSI(14) is neutral at 52.
Support: 1.40427, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40596, 1.40725
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4043 range low reopens the 1.4032 session low
M15 close above the 1.4060 range high exposes the 1.4073 Asian low, where the London breakdown started
Break of the rising lows line returns focus to the range low
Brent and Hormuz headlines remain the main CAD driver into the Asia session
16:46 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in NY · RSI 48 · price 1.40505
Lower highs through Asia/London, post-low range 1.4043–1.4060.
London broke the 1.4073 Asian low and pressed USD/CAD to a 1.4032 day low, as soft US housing data and firm oil kept the pair below 1.4050. After the rejection of that low, NY has held a 1.4043 range low to 1.4060 range high box. Price sits at the 38.2% of the london leg fib on a flat EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 1.4043, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4060, 1.4073
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4043 range low re-exposes the 1.4032 day low and resumes the lower-low sequence
Close above the 1.4060 range high clears the 50–61.8% london leg fib zone and turns the 1.4073 asian low into the next test
No scheduled USD/CAD data in the next 8h; oil and US-Iran headlines are the main swing factor for this read
Lower highs compressing into a flat 1.4043 range floor.
Steady sell-off from the Asian range broke the asian low at 1.4073 at London open. NY extended it to a session low of 1.4032 on the US housing misses and soft-USD tone. The bounce has recovered under a quarter of the day's decline, with lower highs off the 1.4060 ny high pressing into a 1.4043 range floor and RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 1.4043, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4060, 1.4073
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4043 range floor puts the 1.4032 session low back in play
Close above the 1.4060 ny high breaks the lower-high trendline and opens a retest of the 1.4073 asian low
Oil and US-Iran headlines during late NY hours could extend the CAD-led move
16:16 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalled in NY · RSI 47 · price 1.40468
Lower highs since London open; NY compressing 1.4043–1.4060 above the 1.4032 session low.
USDCAD broke the Asian low at 1.4072 at London open and fell to a 1.4032 session low in early NY as soft US housing data kept USD on the defensive. Since then price has compressed between the 1.4043 swing low and the 1.4060 NY high, below the 23.6% of the day drop and both EMAs, with RSI(14) flat near 47.
Support: 1.40435, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40595, 1.40725
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4060 NY high breaks the descending trendline and opens the 1.4072 Asian low
Failure to hold the 1.4043 swing low exposes the 1.4032 session low and a fresh lower-low
Oil and US-Iran headlines are the main swing factor, with no scheduled data in the next 8h
16:02 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in late NY · RSI 47 · price 1.40468
Lower highs; tight 1.4043–1.4060 range under falling highs since NY open.
USD/CAD bled lower through Asia and London, broke the Asian low near 1.4073 and printed a day low at 1.4032 in NY as soft US housing data hit the dollar. After London close, price is coiling between the 1.4043 range floor and the 1.4060 NY high, under falling highs. RSI(14) is neutral near 47.
Support: 1.4043, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4060, 1.4073
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4032 day low extends the lower-low sequence toward round number 1.4000
Close above the falling highs and the 1.4060 NY high, near the 38.2% fib of the day's decline, opens a retest of the 1.4073 Asian low
Repeated holds at the 1.4043 range floor keep the late-NY consolidation intact
US-Iran deal or Hormuz/oil headlines could shift this read; no scheduled data in the next 8h
15:46 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in NY · RSI 45 · price 1.40471
Lower highs from London; NY range 1.4043–1.4060 above the 1.4032 session low.
London broke below the Asian low at 1.4072. Weak US housing data then sent NY to a session low at 1.4032, in line with the soft-USD and firm-oil backdrop. Since then price has chopped in a 1.4043–1.4060 range: the ny high is holding below the 38.2% retracement and the descending resistance, and RSI(14) sits flat near 45.
Support: 1.40428, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40596, 1.40725
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4043 ny swing low exposes the 1.4032 session low; a break there resumes the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 1.4060 ny high and the descending resistance opens a retest of the 1.4072 asian low (old range floor)
London close approaching, so thinner liquidity may keep the NY range compressed
US-Iran or oil headlines remain the main intraday driver; no scheduled USD/CAD data in the next 8h
USDCAD broke the Asian low at 1.4073 at London open and slid to a session low of 1.4032 in the first hour of NY, as soft US housing data and Brent at five-month highs weighed on the pair. Since then, a higher low at 1.4043 and repeated caps at the 1.4059–1.4060 NY high have left price compressing on the 38.2% fib and EMA20 near 1.4051.
Support: 1.40431, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40596, 1.40725
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4060 NY high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens a retest of the Asian low at 1.4073
Failure to hold the 1.4043 higher low exposes the 1.4032 session low
Oil headlines around the Strait of Hormuz remain the main swing factor for CAD into the London close
15:16 UTC
Downtrend, stalling in NY · RSI 47 · price 1.40512
Lower highs and lows through London; NY sweep low then a 1.4043–1.4060 range.
London broke below the Asian low at 1.4073, and the slide extended into NY on soft US housing data and firm oil. A sweep to the 1.4032 session low reversed quickly, but the NY high at 1.4060 has rejected twice. Price is now pinned at the EMA20 near 1.4051, about a quarter of the way back up the fib of the drop from 1.4112.
Support: 1.40431, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40596, 1.40725
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4060 NY high breaks the lower-high sequence and points back to the 1.4073 Asian low
Failure to hold the 1.4043 pullback low exposes the 1.4032 session low
London close may thin the range; oil and Hormuz headlines are the main CAD swing factor, with no scheduled data in the next 8h
Lower highs from London open; NY sweep of 1.4039 to 1.4032 then a wide-bar range of 1.4032–1.4060.
London broke below the Asian session base near 1.4077–1.4089 and ground lower to a 1.4045 London low. Soft US housing data and firm oil then pushed NY to a 1.4032 low before a sharp snap-back to the 1.4060 NY high. Late in the London-NY overlap, price is pivoting at 1.4050, the 38.2% fib of the London high to NY low drop, with EMA20 flat, RSI(14) neutral near 47 and ATR expanded to about 10 pips.
Support: 1.4045, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4060, 1.4081, 1.4089
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4060 NY high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 1.4081 London high
Loss of the 1.4045 London low exposes the 1.4032 NY low; a close below extends the lower-low chain
Asian low at 1.4089 caps any extended rebound; reclaiming it would undo the London breakdown
Brent / Hormuz headlines remain the main CAD driver with no scheduled data in the next 8h
14:46 UTC
Downtrend, NY whipsawing near lows · RSI 45 · price 1.40469
Lower highs since Asia; NY range 1.4032–1.4060 after sweep.
London extended the Asia-session slide through the 1.4073 Asian low. In the first hours of NY, price swept 1.4038 to a 1.4032 session low and snapped back, but the 1.4060 NY cap has rejected two rebounds; oil-driven CAD demand and a softer USD keep the lower-high line intact. Price now sits on the 1.4045 London low with RSI(14) near 45 and ATR around 10 pips.
Support: 1.4045, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4060, 1.4073
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4032 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4000 handle
Close above the 1.4060 NY cap and the lower-high line negates the downtrend read, with the 1.4073 Asian low the next level overhead
Failure to hold the 1.4045 London low puts the session low back in play
Oil and Hormuz headlines remain the main intraday swing factor for CAD
Lower highs from 1.4112; NY sweep below prior lows reversed into a 50-61.8% retrace.
London broke the asian low at 1.4073 and ground lower to the prior lows at 1.4045. Oil-driven CAD demand and a softer USD drove the move. The first hour of NY swept to the NY low at 1.4032, then rejected sharply back to 1.4059, a 50-61.8% retrace of the London drop that is now testing the 1.4063 swing high.
Support: 1.4045, 1.4032
Resistance: 1.4063, 1.4073
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4063 swing high breaks the intraday lower-high chain and exposes the asian low at 1.4073
Slip back below the prior lows at 1.4045 undercuts the sweep-reversal read
Failure to hold the NY low at 1.4032 resumes the lower-low sequence
Oil and Strait of Hormuz headlines during NY hours could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian session; sharp wick off the 1.4032 day low.
London broke the 1.4073 Asian low and the slide extended into NY, helped by oil-driven CAD demand and a softer USD after the housing starts miss. The 1.4032 day low was rejected straight back to 1.4048. Price is mid-NY, just under EMA20, and lower highs still cap below the 1.4059 NY high.
Support: 1.40377, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.40586, 1.40725, 1.41056
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4059 NY high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the intraday lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.4038 NY low and the 1.4032 day low confirms another lower-low
38.2% slide fib near 1.4063 sits just above the NY high; the 1.4073 Asian low is the next cap, with the 1.4106 Asian high well above
Pending Home Sales (14:00 UTC) and oil / Strait of Hormuz headlines could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lows since Asia; NY dip below 1.4038 reclaimed.
USD/CAD has stair-stepped lower from 1.4106 since the Asia session. London cut through 1.4050, with Brent strength and a softer USD driving CAD. Early NY dropped below the 1.4038 prior low to a 1.4032 session low, but the 13:45 UTC bar recovered the whole move back to 1.4048, leaving a false break and price pinned just under the ema20 and the descending tl.
Support: 1.40377, 1.40319
Resistance: 1.4050, 1.40586, 1.40725
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.4059 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and the descending tl
Re-break of the 1.4032 session low negates the rejection and resumes the downtrend
Asian low at 1.4073 caps any recovery and is the 38.2% zone of the decline fib
Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC (current bar) could add a burst of intraday volatility
Oil/Hormuz headlines remain the main CAD driver intraday
13:46 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling in early NY · RSI 45 · price 1.40497
Lower-high chain from Asia; post-data sweep of session low then reclaim.
Asia broke down from 1.4106 and London extended the slide through the asian low, with CAD bid on oil near five-month highs. Around the 12:30 UTC US data the pair swept the london low to a session low at 1.4038, then snapped to a 1.4059 spike high on the intraday USD bounce. Early NY now chops 1.4045–1.4059, pressing the descending trendline, with RSI(14) neutral near 45.
Support: 1.40451, 1.40377, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40586, 1.40725, 1.40832
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4059 spike high breaks the descending trendline structure; asian low 1.4073, then monday low 1.4083, next overhead
Close back below the london low at 1.4045 puts the 1.4038 session low back in play
Break of the 1.4038 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4000 round number
US Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC and Brent/Hormuz headlines could jolt this read inside the next few bars
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.4106 through Asia and London; bounce off session low capped below a descending trendline.
USDCAD has carved lower highs from 1.4106 through the Asia and London sessions, with oil-led CAD strength and a softer USD driving the move. The dip through the 1.4045 London low to a 1.4038 session low around the 12:15–12:30 UTC US data was bought back to the 1.4059 NY-open high. Price is now pinned just under the descending trendline, RSI(14) neutral near 43.
Support: 1.4045, 1.4038, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4059, 1.4081
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4059 NY-open high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain; 1.4081 swing high next
Failure to hold the 1.4045 London low reopens the 1.4038 session low, then the 1.4000 round number
Oil and Hormuz headlines are the dominant CAD driver and could materially shift this read; Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC is low impact
Lower highs and lows since the Asian session, NY sweep below 1.4045 reversed.
London extended the Asian-session slide through the Asian low at 1.4073, with CAD bid on five-month-high oil and a softer USD. Around the 12:30 UTC US data the pair swept the London low near 1.4045 to a 1.4038 session low, then snapped back to a 1.4059 NY high, now holding just above EMA20 near the 23.6% retracement.
Support: 1.40451, 1.40377
Resistance: 1.40586, 1.40636, 1.40725
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4059 NY high and the 38.2% fib at 1.4064 would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4045 London low puts the 1.4038 session low back in play
Reclaim of the 1.4073 Asian low would negate the session downtrend read
Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC is low impact; oil headlines remain the larger swing factor for this read
Lower highs since Monday's 1.4112 high; false break of London low reclaimed.
USDCAD bled about 70 pips from Monday's 1.4112 high through Asia and London as oil strength and a softer USD lifted CAD, with lower highs intact. A dip through the London low at 1.4045 around the US Housing Starts miss set a session low at 1.4038 that was quickly reclaimed. Early NY now presses the falling trendline and 23.6% drop fib near 1.4055, just under the rebound high at 1.4059.
Support: 1.4045, 1.4038
Resistance: 1.4059, 1.4066
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4059 rebound high breaks the falling trendline and exposes the fib 38.2 at 1.4066
Loss of the 1.4045 london low, then the 1.4038 session low, resumes the lower-low chain
US Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC is low impact; oil and Hormuz headlines remain the main swing factor for CAD
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian open; London base at 1.4045 just broken.
USDCAD has bled lower since the Asian open. London took out the asian low at 1.4073 and a 16-pip bar at the start of NY hours cut through the 1.4045 london base to a session low at 1.4038. Oil above $100 and a defensive USD keep supply capping each lower high, with RSI(14) near 31 and not yet stretched.
Support: 1.40381, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40451, 1.40562, 1.40725
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4038 session low exposes the 1.4000 round number
M15 close back above the 1.4045 london base would mark the break as a false break
Recovery through the 1.4056 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the intraday sequence
Asia high fib 50–61.8% sits near the 1.4073 asian low, the upper bound of any retracement
Oil and Strait of Hormuz headlines could materially shift this read
12:31 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into NY open · RSI 43 · price 1.40534
Lower highs from 1.4063; flat base at 1.4045 session low.
USDCAD has ground lower through Asia and London on firm oil and a defensive USD, breaking the 1.4073 Asian low and printing a 1.4045 session low three times between 10:30 and 11:30 UTC. The bounce from that base stalled at the ema20 near 1.4056, under a line of lower highs from the 1.4063 swing high.
Support: 1.4045, 1.4040
Resistance: 1.4056, 1.4063, 1.4073
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4045 session low resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4040 round number
Close above the 1.4063 swing high breaks the lower highs line and points back to the 1.4073 Asian low
Oil and Strait of Hormuz headlines during NY hours could materially shift this read
Lower highs/lower lows since the Asian range break; flat base at 1.4045.
London broke below the Asian low near 1.4073 and ground out lower highs to a 1.4045 session low, extending the oil-led CAD bid to monthly lows. Demand held the 1.4045 session low three times into the London-NY transition, and the latest bar is pressing the ema20 near 1.4056. RSI(14) sits at 41, well clear of oversold.
Support: 1.40451, 1.4040
Resistance: 1.4056, 1.40629, 1.40725
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4045 session low resumes the lower-low chain toward the 1.4040 round number
Reclaim of the 1.4063 swing high (50% of the London leg fib) breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.4073 Asian low back in focus
Rejection at the ema20 near 1.4056 keeps the London downtrend structure intact
No scheduled data in the next 8h; oil and Hormuz headlines during NY hours are the main swing factor for CAD
Lower highs and lower lows from Asia, flat base at 1.4045.
USDCAD bled lower through Asia from 1.4106 and extended after London open to a session low at 1.4045, with firm oil and a softer USD keeping CAD bid. Three tests of 1.4045 since 10:30 UTC have held, and the 1.4056 bounce high now sits just under the 1.4063 lower high and 50% fib of the London leg.
Support: 1.40451, 1.4040
Resistance: 1.40562, 1.40629, 1.40813
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4045 session low resumes the lower-low chain toward key support at 1.4040
Close above the 1.4063 lower high (50% fib) breaks the London-session lower-high sequence, with the 1.4081 asia swing next
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Housing Starts/Permits (12:30 UTC) land in the next bars and could materially shift this read
Oil/Hormuz headlines remain the main CAD driver intraday
11:46 UTC
Downtrend, pace slowing near lows · RSI 36 · price 1.4046
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian range broke at London open.
London open broke the Asian low at 1.4073 and ground lower to the 1.4045 london low. The slide tracks oil-linked CAD demand and a softer USD into a priced Fed pause. Lower highs have capped each bounce since 1.4063; RSI(14) near 36 is not oversold, but swing lows are compressing late in the London session.
Support: 1.4045, 1.4040, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4063, 1.4073
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4063 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Acceptance below the london low exposes the 1.4040 zone, with the 1.4000 round number the next marker
Return above the asian low at 1.4073, near the day high fib 38.2%, would neutralise the range break
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Housing Starts/Permits (12:30 UTC) around NY open could shift this read
LH/LL chain since Asia open, London extending below Asian low.
USDCAD has carved lower highs and lower lows since the Asia session. London broke the Asian low at 1.4073 and pressed to a session low of 1.4045 as firmer crude lifted CAD. RSI(14) sits near 36, soft but not oversold, and the lower-highs trendline keeps capping bounces near the 1.4055 lower high.
Support: 1.40454, 1.4040
Resistance: 1.40546, 1.40629, 1.40725
What it said to watch
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Housing Starts/Permits (12:30 UTC) around the NY open could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 1.4045 session low exposes the 1.4040 round number
M15 close above the 1.4063 swing high breaks the lower-high chain; reclaiming the 1.4073 asian low would neutralise the London leg
WTI or Hormuz headlines remain the main CAD driver intraday
London broke below Asian low, lower-high chain into pre-NY.
The selloff from Monday's 1.4112 high has carried through Asia. London broke the Asian low at 1.40725 and extended to a 1.40463 session low as firmer WTI lifted CAD. Bounces since 09:00 UTC have stalled below the 1.40629 lower high, with RSI(14) near 37 and not stretched.
Support: 1.40463, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40629, 1.40725
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.40629 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; a reclaim of the 1.40725 Asian low neutralises the London break
Failure to hold the 1.40463 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4000 round number
US ADP 4-week avg (12:15 UTC) and Housing Starts/Permits (12:30 UTC) near NY open could materially shift this read
WTI / Hormuz headlines remain the main CAD driver intraday
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.4112; compressing above session low.
The four-day slide extended. Asia ground lower from the 1.4106 Asian high, and London broke the prior low at 1.4070 to print a session low at 1.4051 as Hormuz-driven crude strength lifted CAD. New lows are now shallow and bar ranges have narrowed, with RSI(14) near 33. Downside momentum is stalling rather than reversing, and the 09:00 UTC lower high at 1.4063 is capping.
Support: 1.4051, 1.4040
Resistance: 1.4063, 1.4070, 1.4106
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4051 session low extends the lower-low chain, with 1.4040 the next support cited in commentary
Reclaim of the 1.4063 lower high breaks the micro sequence. The 1.4070 prior low, aligned with the 38.2% fib of the decline (~1.4074), is then the next test.
ADP (12:15 UTC) and US Housing Starts/Permits (12:30 UTC) land around NY open. Oil and Hormuz headlines remain the main CAD driver.
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian range break; price pressing the session low.
London open broke the Asian low at 1.4073 and pushed the four-day slide to a 1.4052 session low, with CAD lifted by oil on Hormuz headlines. Rebounds are capped by lower highs at the 1.4081 swing high and 1.4063, and RSI(14) at ~27 is oversold with no turn yet.
Support: 1.4052, 1.4040
Resistance: 1.4063, 1.4073, 1.4081
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4052 session low extends the lower-low chain toward 1.4040 key support
Reclaim of the 1.4063 lower high breaks the descending trendline; the broken 1.4073 asian low is then the next resistance
US Housing Starts/Building Permits at 12:30 UTC are second-tier; oil and Hormuz headlines remain the main CAD driver
Lower highs/lows since Asian high; London broke the Asian range low, now compressing above the session low.
London broke the Asian low at 1.4073 and extended to a 1.4053 session low as firmer crude on Hormuz headlines lifted CAD. Price has since compressed in a 1.4053–1.4063 band, with RSI(14) oversold near 26 and lower highs from the 1.4106 Asian high intact.
Support: 1.4053, 1.4050
Resistance: 1.4063, 1.4073, 1.4106
What it said to watch
Break below the 1.4053 session low exposes the 1.4050 round number
M15 close above the 1.4063 swing high, then the 1.4073 asian low (near 38.2% of the asia-london fib), would undercut the breakdown read
US Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30 UTC are second-tier; oil/Hormuz headlines remain the main CAD driver
Reclaim of the 1.4106 asian high would erase the session decline
Lower highs and lower lows since Asia open; Asian range broken lower in London, now basing above 1.4053.
USD/CAD has fully unwound Monday's CPI-miss spike to 1.4112. Oil-backed CAD and a softer USD pushed price through the Asian range low near 1.4073 and Monday's prior low at 1.4070 at London open. Price has stalled for about 90 minutes just above the 1.4053 session low, with RSI(14) near 27 and a lower micro high capping at 1.4063.
Support: 1.40532, 1.4040, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40629, 1.4070, 1.4079
What it said to watch
A break below the 1.4053 session low extends the lower-low chain toward tech support at 1.4040, then the 1.4000 round number
Recovery above the 1.4063 micro high and back over the 1.4070 prior low would put price back inside the Asian range
Fib 50% retracement of the Asia-London leg sits at 1.4079; rejection below it keeps the downtrend structure intact
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Housing Starts/Permits (12:30 UTC) at the NY open could shift the read
WTI moves on Strait of Hormuz headlines remain the main CAD driver intraday
09:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia open · RSI 32 · price 1.40568
Asian range low and prior-day low broken at London open; basing near session low.
London open broke the Asian range low and Monday's 1.4070 prior low. That extended the four-day slide as oil-driven CAD demand and a softer USD weighed. Price has since been basing at 1.4053–1.4063 near the session low, with RSI(14) at 32 and lower highs since Asia still capped under descending resistance.
Support: 1.40532, 1.4040
Resistance: 1.40701, 1.40813
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.4070 prior low (near the 38.2% of the Asia-London drop fib) would mark the break as failed
M15 close below the 1.4053 session low extends the lower-low chain toward next support at 1.4040
Close above the 1.4081 swing high breaks descending resistance and the lower-high sequence
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Housing Starts/Building Permits (12:30 UTC) during the first hour of NY could materially shift this read
09:31 UTC
Downtrend, selling pace slowing near lows · RSI 33 · price 1.40612
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian open; Asian range broken lower in London.
USDCAD extended its overnight slide as CAD tracked firmer crude on Hormuz headlines and a softer USD. London opened by breaking below the asian low at 1.4073 and printed a session low of 1.4053, with RSI(14) near 33. Mid-London, price is holding just above 1.4050, and lower highs remain capped under the descending line from the 1.4081 swing high.
Support: 1.40532, 1.4040
Resistance: 1.40725, 1.40813
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low at 1.4073 (38.2% of the overnight decline) would negate the range break
Failure to hold the 1.4053 session low exposes the 1.4040 support zone
Break above the descending line and the 1.4081 swing high would end the lower-high sequence
US Housing Starts, Permits and Pending Home Sales due 12:15–14:00 UTC could shift the USD leg
Oil and Strait of Hormuz headlines remain a continuous CAD driver
09:16 UTC
Downtrend, extending into London · RSI 30 · price 1.40573
Lower highs and lower lows since 00:00 UTC; Asian range broken lower.
USD/CAD has slid from the 1.4112 range top, where Monday's CPI-miss spike stalled. London open broke the Asian range low near 1.4072 and Monday's 1.4070 low, printing a session low at 1.4053 as oil-led CAD demand and a softer USD persisted. RSI(14) sits near 30, and bounces have been capped below the 1.4081 lower high.
Support: 1.40532, 1.4050, 1.4040
Resistance: 1.4070, 1.40813, 1.41121
What it said to watch
A close back above 1.4070, the broken low, would mark a false break of the Asian range
Failure to hold the 1.4053 session low and the 1.4050 round number exposes the 1.4040 support zone
Recovery through the 1.4081 lower high breaks the intraday lower-high trendline
US Housing Starts and Building Permits at 12:15–14:00 UTC and any oil or Hormuz headlines could shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4112 high; prior-day low broken.
The Asia session grind lower picked up at London open, breaking the Asian low near 1.4073 and the 1.4070 prior low (Monday's pre-CPI low) for a session low at 1.4053. Oil-driven CAD demand and a softer USD are behind the move. Lower highs at the 1.4081 swing high and the 1.4062 lower high define the descent, with RSI(14) near 29.
Support: 1.4053, 1.4040
Resistance: 1.4062, 1.4070, 1.4081
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4062 lower high breaks the descending trendline of lower highs
Reclaim of the 1.4070 prior low would mark the London break as a false break; the 1.4081 swing high caps any retracement of the 1.4112–1.4053 drop
Failure to hold the 1.4053 session low exposes the 1.4040 support zone
US housing data 12:15–14:00 UTC and oil / Strait of Hormuz headlines could materially shift this read
08:46 UTC
Downtrend, extending at London open · RSI 29 · price 1.40609
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.4112; Asian range broken lower.
CAD firmness on higher oil and Hormuz risk, plus a softer USD, kept the pair sliding through Asia. London open broke below the 1.4070 prior low (Monday's pre-CPI trough) to a 1.4057 session low under a descending trendline from the 1.4095 lower high, with RSI(14) near 29. The 1.4081 swing high marks the last bounce point and the 38.2% fib of the 1.4112–1.4057 leg sits near 1.4078.
Support: 1.4057, 1.4050
Resistance: 1.4070, 1.4081, 1.4095
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4070 prior low would mark the break as a false break
Reclaim of the 1.4081 swing high / descending trendline invalidates the lower-high sequence
Clean break of the 1.4057 session low exposes the 1.4050 round number
US housing data and ADP at 12:15–14:00 UTC could shift USD tone into the NY session
08:31 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 22 · price 1.40574
Lower highs since Asia open; London broke below Monday low.
Monday's CPI-driven pop to the 1.4112 monday high faded into a steady grind lower through Asia, with lower highs capping each bounce as CAD tracked firmer oil on Hormuz headlines. The London open extended the slide through Monday's 1.4070 prior low to a 1.4057 london low, with RSI(14) near 22 and price stretched below both EMAs.
Support: 1.4057, 1.4050, 1.4040
Resistance: 1.4070, 1.4081, 1.4112
What it said to watch
Close back above the 1.4070 prior low would turn the London break into a false break
M15 close above the 1.4081 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and the descending trendline
Failure to hold the 1.4057 london low exposes the 1.4050 round number, then 1.4040 next support
US Housing Starts / Building Permits / Pending Home Sales 12:15–14:00 UTC could shift the NY session read
Crude and Hormuz headlines remain the main CAD driver intraday
08:16 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 19 · price 1.40604
Lower highs and lower lows since rollover; Asian range low broken at London open.
The Asia session ground lower along a sequence of lower highs. London open then broke through the Asian range low near 1.4073 and Monday's prior low at 1.4070, printing a 1.4060 London low as oil-driven CAD demand and a softer USD extended the slide. RSI(14) near 19 is deeply oversold.
Support: 1.4060, 1.4040
Resistance: 1.4070, 1.4081, 1.4112
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4070 prior low would turn the London break into a false break
Reclaim of the 1.4081 swing high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the intraday downtrend sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4060 London low exposes key support at 1.4040
Monday's 1.4112 CPI high caps the 24h range; the soft Canadian CPI spike there faded
Crude and Hormuz headlines remain the dominant CAD driver; US housing data from 12:15 to 14:00 UTC is secondary risk
08:02 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating at London open · RSI 23 · price 1.40604
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia open; Asian low and prior low broken.
London open extended the Asia-session grind lower. The pair broke the 1.4073 Asian low and the 1.4070 prior low, Monday's post-CPI-drop low, and printed 1.4060, with oil-led CAD strength and a soft USD behind the slide. RSI(14) near 23 is stretched, while the lower-highs sequence from the 1.4095 asian high area is intact.
Support: 1.4050, 1.4040
Resistance: 1.4070, 1.4081, 1.4095
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.4070 prior low would turn the London break into a false break
M15 close above the 1.4081 swing high breaks the lower-highs trendline
1.4050 round number, then the 1.4040 key support flagged in the CAD digest, are next below
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Housing Starts/Permits (12:30 UTC) could shift the NY session read
Crude and Hormuz headlines remain the dominant CAD driver intraday
07:46 UTC
Downtrend, extending at London open · RSI 31 · price 1.40683
Lower highs under falling trendline; prior low broken.
USD/CAD has bled lower from the 1.4112 NY high through the Asia session, with each bounce capped under a falling trendline from the 1.4094 asian shelf. The London open extended the decline through Monday's prior low at 1.4070 to a session low of 1.4066, in line with oil-led CAD strength and a softer dollar. RSI(14) near 31 is stretched but not oversold.
Support: 1.40661, 1.4050
Resistance: 1.40701, 1.40813, 1.40944
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4070 prior low would flag a false break of Monday's low
Break above the 1.4081 swing high and the falling trendline invalidates the lower-high sequence
Acceptance below 1.4066 session low exposes the 1.4050 psych level
US Housing Starts/Building Permits at 12:30 UTC and crude/Hormuz headlines could shift this read
Lower highs since midnight UTC; Asian range low broken at London open.
USD/CAD has fully unwound yesterday's soft-CPI spike to 1.4112, sliding through Asia on oil-led CAD strength and breaking the Asian low at 1.4073 into the London open. Price is now sitting on yesterday's prior low at 1.4070 under a descending trendline from the midnight high. RSI(14) near 32 is soft but not stretched.
Support: 1.40701, 1.4050
Resistance: 1.40725, 1.40813, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 1.4070 prior low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4050 recent low
Recovery back above the asian low and the 1.4081 swing high breaks the descending trendline and the Asia lower-high sequence
1.4100 pivot caps the post-CPI range on any rebound
US Housing Starts/Building Permits at 12:30 UTC and oil/Hormuz headlines could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 00:00 UTC drop, now pressing Monday's pre-CPI low.
Firmer oil kept CAD supported through Asia, and the slide built a lower-high chain off the 1.4095 asia top. It printed a session low at 1.4073, just above the 1.4070 monday low that preceded the CPI-miss spike. The early London bounce stalled at the 1.4081 lower high, below the descending trendline. RSI(14) is near 40 and ATR is about 3.4 pips, so ranges are compressed.
Support: 1.40725, 1.40701
Resistance: 1.40813, 1.40954, 1.41121
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4070 monday low confirms a fresh lower low beyond the session low
Close above the 1.4081 lower high and descending trendline neutralises the Asia lower-high chain; the 38.2% fib near 1.4088 and the 1.4095 asia top come next
Monday high at 1.4112 caps the window; only a reclaim of 1.4100 there changes the intraday structure
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Housing Starts/Permits (12:30 UTC) could shift the NY session read
07:02 UTC
Downtrend, bounce stalling at London open · RSI 41 · price 1.40785
Asian lower-high sequence, falling trendline broken off the 1.4073 low.
USD/CAD fell through Asia in lower highs from 1.4106 as oil gains on Hormuz disruption kept CAD firm, printing a 1.4073 asian low just above the 1.4070 prior low. A bounce into London open broke the Asian falling trendline but is stalling at the 1.4081 bounce high. RSI(14) sits near 41 and price is below both EMAs.
Support: 1.4073, 1.4070, 1.4050
Resistance: 1.4081, 1.4095, 1.4112
What it said to watch
A close back below the 1.4073 asian low and 1.4070 prior low resumes the lower-high sequence toward the 1.4050 oct low
Acceptance above the 1.4081 bounce high opens the 38.2% fib at 1.4088 and the 1.4095 asia shelf
A move back above the 1.4112 prior high (NY high) negates the decline read
US Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30 UTC and oil/Hormuz headlines could materially shift this read
06:46 UTC
Downtrend, steady lower highs through Asia · RSI 27 · price 1.40749
LH/LL chain from 1.4112 NY high, pressing prior low.
After the soft Canada CPI spike was capped at the 1.4112 NY high, Asia ground lower in a clean lower-high sequence on firmer oil and a softer USD, printing a session low at 1.4073 just above yesterday's pre-CPI prior low at 1.4070. RSI(14) near 27 into the London open, with ATR only ~3 pips.
Support: 1.40725, 1.40701
Resistance: 1.40796, 1.40954, 1.41121
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4070 prior low extends the lower-low chain into London
Reclaim of the 1.4080 lower high breaks the Asia downtrend line; 1.4095 rebound high next above
US ADP 12:15 UTC and housing starts 12:30 UTC could shift the USD leg during NY
Further oil moves on Hormuz headlines remain the main CAD driver
06:31 UTC
Downtrend, RSI stretched · RSI 24 · price 1.40755
Lower highs and lower lows under a falling trendline since the 1.4112 high.
The Asia session extended the slide from the late-NY 1.4112 high. Price has printed lower highs under a falling trendline down to a 1.40725 session low, just above yesterday's 1.4070 pre-cpi low, with CAD firm on oil/Hormuz supply risk and a soft USD. RSI(14) near 24 heading into London open.
Support: 1.40725, 1.40701, 1.4050
Resistance: 1.40807, 1.40891, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4070 pre-cpi low exposes the 1.4050 psych area, the support flagged in the CAD digest
Close above the falling trendline and the 1.4081 lower high breaks the Asia lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 1.4089 asia shelf and 50% fib of slide near 1.4092 neutralises the downtrend read; 1.4100 round number above
London open in ~45 min; US housing starts/permits at 12:30 UTC and oil/Hormuz headlines could shift this read
Lower-high staircase through Asia, testing prior-day low.
USDCAD has sold off steadily from the 1.4106 asia high, with lower highs along a descending trendline carrying price to 1.4074 ahead of London open. That leaves it just above yesterday's 1.4070 prior low. The Canada CPI spike to the 1.4112 prior high is fully unwound as oil and a soft USD lift CAD, with RSI(14) near 18 oversold and ATR(14) around 3.2 pips.
Support: 1.4070, 1.4050
Resistance: 1.4089, 1.4106, 1.4112
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4070 prior low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4050 round number
Break of the descending trendline and reclaim of the 1.4089 asia shelf would ease the downtrend read
Recovery stalling at the 1.4106 asia high or 1.4112 prior high keeps the sell-off structure intact
US ADP 4-week average and housing starts at 12:15–12:30 UTC, plus oil/Hormuz headlines, could materially shift this read
06:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 17 · price 1.40741
Asia lower-high chain, testing Monday low.
The Asia session has ground steadily lower in a lower-high sequence below a descending trendline, with price now at Monday's pre-CPI low near 1.4070 as oil-backed CAD and a soft USD extend the slide. RSI(14) near 17 is deeply oversold heading into London open, while ATR around 3 pips shows an orderly, low-range decline.
Support: 1.40701, 1.4050
Resistance: 1.40891, 1.41119
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4070 monday low extends the decline toward the 1.4050 psych level
Close above the descending trendline and the 1.4089 asia shelf breaks the lower-high chain
Recovery through the asia shelf reopens the 1.4112 prior high, the top of Monday's CPI spike
London open could expand the compressed ATR and test the Monday low
US ADP at 12:15 and Housing Starts at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:46 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower into London · RSI 21 · price 1.40788
Lower highs through Asia, at session low.
USDCAD rolled over from the 1.4112 prior high, broke the 1.4089 asia pivot and has carved steady lower highs through the Asia session. Firm oil on Hormuz disruption and a soft USD are behind the slide. Price now sits at the session low near 1.4079 with RSI(14) oversold around 21 and ATR compressed to roughly 3 pips, a few pips above Monday's 1.4070 cpi low.
Support: 1.4070, 1.4050
Resistance: 1.4089, 1.4112
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.4070 cpi low extends the lower-low chain and exposes the 1.4050 round number
Reclaim of the 1.4089 asia pivot breaks the asia lower highs trendline and invalidates the grind-lower read
London open liquidity could expand the compressed ~3-pip ATR range
Oil and Strait of Hormuz headlines; US Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30 UTC
05:31 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower through Asia · RSI 22 · price 1.40806
Lower highs after Asian range break.
Late Asia session: USD/CAD broke the early 1.4089–1.4095 Asian range (asia floor to asia top) and has ground out lower highs to a 1.4080 session low. Oil-led CAD strength and a soft USD are driving the slide. RSI(14) near 22 is stretched without a bounce yet, and Monday's pre-cpi low at 1.4070 sits just below.
Support: 1.40796, 1.40701
Resistance: 1.40891, 1.40954, 1.41121
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4089 asia floor negates the range break
Break of the 1.4070 pre-cpi low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4050 area
Recovery through the 1.4112 ny high reclaims 1.4100 and flips intraday structure
38.2% retrace of the ny high to session low drop sits at 1.4092, near the asia top; rejection there keeps lower highs intact
London open in under 2h; US housing starts/permits at 12:30 UTC and oil/Hormuz headlines could shift the read
05:16 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower in late Asia · RSI 24 · price 1.40803
Lower highs and lower lows since 00:00 UTC, Monday's post-CPI range broken lower.
Late Asia session has extended Monday's fade. Price broke below the prior NY low at 1.4083 in a steady lower-high sequence and now sits on the Asian low near 1.4080, with RSI(14) around 24. Oil-led CAD strength and a soft USD drove the slide, and the pre-CPI low at 1.4070 is the next reference below.
Support: 1.40798, 1.40701
Resistance: 1.40832, 1.40954, 1.41121
What it said to watch
Holding below the 1.4083 prior NY low into London open keeps the lower-high chain intact
Recovery above the 1.4095 lower high, the 38.2% of the Monday high to Asian low fib, neutralises the Asia breakdown
Loss of the 1.4070 pre-CPI low exposes the 1.4050 area flagged in market commentary; a return to the 1.4112 prior high would invalidate the downtrend read
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC, plus oil and Hormuz headlines, could shift this read
05:03 UTC
Downtrend, steady grind through Asia · RSI 24 · price 1.40803
Lower highs and lower lows since the 00:00 UTC break of the rollover range.
Late Asia session: the pair broke the 1.4106 rollover range at 00:00 UTC and has printed lower highs into a session low at 1.4080, with oil-driven CAD strength and a soft USD behind the move. RSI(14) is near 24 and ATR is only about 3 pips. The next reference is Monday's prior low at 1.4070, set just before the Canada CPI miss spiked price to the 1.4112 prior high.
Support: 1.40798, 1.40701
Resistance: 1.40891, 1.41121
What it said to watch
A break of the 1.4070 prior low extends the lower-low sequence heading into London open
A reclaim of the 1.4089 asia shelf would break the lower-highs trendline and neutralise the Asian slide
Oil and Hormuz headlines can override the thin Asian tape; US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC are the next data risk
Lower-high grind below Asia shelf, at session low.
Late Asia session: USD/CAD dropped from 1.4106 at the 00:00 UTC open, then slipped under the 1.4089–1.4095 asia shelf to fresh session lows near 1.4080. The move came as oil-driven CAD demand extended, with lower highs capping every bounce since. Monday's pre-CPI prior low at 1.4070 sits about 10 pips below, and RSI(14) at 26 is stretched but not extreme.
Support: 1.4070, 1.4050
Resistance: 1.4095, 1.4112
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.4070 prior low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4050 round number
Reclaim of the 1.4095 asia shelf breaks the lower-high trendline and neutralises the intraday downtrend
Retracement toward the 1.4112 cpi high on the fib would signal the drop is exhausted
London open liquidity and oil/Hormuz headlines could expand the ~3-pip ATR quickly
US Housing Starts and Permits at 12:30 UTC are a NY-session risk to this read
04:31 UTC
Downtrend, steady lower highs through Asia · RSI 30 · price 1.40825
Asian shelf broken, grinding to fresh session lows.
Asia session opened with a 17-pip drop from 1.4106, held a 1.4089–1.4095 shelf for about three hours, then slipped through the asia floor into a lower-high grind to a fresh session low at 1.4081 as oil strength keeps CAD bid. Price is below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 30. Monday's 1.4070 low, set before the CPI spike to the 1.4112 ny high, is the next reference below.
Support: 1.4081, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4089, 1.4095, 1.4112
What it said to watch
Holding below the 1.4089 asia floor keeps the lower-high sequence intact. A reclaim of the 1.4095 range top would negate it.
Failure to hold the 1.4070 monday low clears the pre-CPI base and puts the 1.4075/1.4050 digest support zone in play.
A recovery through the 1.4112 ny high would fully retrace the overnight leg (ny high to session low fib).
London open around 07:00 UTC, oil/Hormuz headlines and US Housing Starts at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
Lower-high/lower-low chain from the 1.4112 NY high; early Asian base at 1.4089 broken.
Late Asia session: USD/CAD has stepped down from the 1.4112 NY high in a chain of lower highs. Price slipped through the 1.4089 Asia base to 1.4082, extending the oil-driven CAD bid, with RSI(14) near 29 and ATR at about 3.4 pips. Monday's cpi-day low at 1.4070 is the next reference below.
Support: 1.4070, 1.4050
Resistance: 1.4089, 1.4112
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4089 asia base would flag the break as a false break
Loss of the 1.4070 cpi-day low opens the 1.4050 round number
A close above the Asia lower-highs trendline near 1.4085 ends the descending sequence
London open in ~3h; US Housing Starts and Building Permits at 12:30 UTC could shift this read
Oil and Hormuz headlines remain the main CAD driver intraday
Lower highs through Asia, 1.4089 range floor broken.
Late Asia session: the pair slipped out of the 1.4089–1.4095 range that formed after the 00:00 UTC drop and is printing a session low near 1.4082, just under the cpi low at 1.4083 set after Monday's Canada CPI miss. Asian highs keep stepping lower beneath a lower highs trendline as oil strength keeps CAD firm. RSI(14) near 29 is stretched but not extreme, and ATR is a thin 3.4 pips.
Support: 1.4070, 1.4050
Resistance: 1.4083, 1.4095, 1.4112
What it said to watch
A break of the 1.4070 monday low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.4050 psych
Recovery back above the 1.4095 lower high negates the Asian breakdown; the 1.4112 ny high caps the 24h range
A close back above 1.4083 (cpi low) would mark the push below as a false break
US Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30 UTC and oil/Hormuz headlines could shift this read into London and NY
After repeated rejection at the 1.4112 prior high through NY, USD/CAD slid from 1.4106 in Asia on oil-driven CAD strength and is now pressing the 1.4083 swing low that also held Monday's post-CPI fade. RSI(14) near 28; the Asian bounce stalled at the fib 38.2 near 1.4095.
Support: 1.4083, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4095, 1.4112
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.4083 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4070 monday low and the 1.4075 area flagged in the digest
Recovery above the 1.4095 fib 38.2 (Asian bounce high) neutralises the Asian slide
London open and US housing data at 12:30Z, plus oil/Hormuz headlines, could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 26 · price 1.40859
Post-rollover shelf broken lower; lower-high sequence pressing NY low.
The Asia session broke the 1.4105–1.4110 post-rollover shelf at the open. Oil-driven CAD strength and a softer USD sent the pair to 1.4084, with bounces capped at the 1.4095 lower high. Price is now pressing the NY low at 1.4083, with RSI(14) near 26 and both EMAs overhead.
Support: 1.40832, 1.40701
Resistance: 1.40954, 1.41121
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4083 ny low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4070 monday low
Recovery above the 1.4095 lower high (38.2% fib of the prior high–Asia low drop) neutralises the Asia slide
Reclaiming the 1.4112 prior high would undo the whole session's decline
Oil and Hormuz headlines remain a live driver; US Housing Starts at 12:30Z falls later, outside this session
03:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 28 · price 1.40875
Asian range broken lower, LH/LL chain pressing Monday's lows.
Asia session broke below the 1.4105–1.4109 asian range and has printed lower highs under a falling trendline, with the 1.4095 asia bounce capping. Price is now testing Monday's 1.4083 ny low with RSI(14) near 28, as oil-driven CAD strength extends the fourth-day slide; the 1.4070 monday low sits just below.
Support: 1.4083, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4095, 1.4106, 1.4112
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4083 ny low exposes the 1.4070 monday low and the 1.4075 support flagged in the digest
Recovery above the 1.4095 asia bounce breaks the lower-high trendline; a return inside the 1.4106 asian range negates the range break
1.4112 prior high marks the top of Monday's late-NY rally and the upper bound of the 24h range
London open and US Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30Z could extend or reverse the Asian move; oil and Hormuz headlines remain a two-way risk
Asia range break below ny shelf, lower highs, tight 1.4089–1.4095 box.
The Asia open broke the 1.4105 ny shelf that held from late NY into rollover, and price slid to the asian low at 1.4089. Since then it has compressed between 1.4089 and the 1.4095 minor cap, with RSI(14) near 35. Monday's soft Canadian CPI spike set the 1.4112 cpi high, which caps the window, and the post-cpi low at 1.4083 and pre-cpi low at 1.4070 sit below.
Support: 1.40891, 1.40832, 1.40701
Resistance: 1.40954, 1.41056, 1.41121
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4105 ny shelf negates the Asia range break and puts the 1.4112 cpi high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.4089 asian low exposes the 1.4083 post-cpi low, then the 1.4070 pre-cpi low
Clearing the 1.4095 minor cap would bring the 38.2–50% retracement of the late-NY-high drop at 1.4098–1.4101 into view
London open in ~4h is the likely trigger to expand the 6-pip Asian box
Lower highs since 1.4112; tight base after Asia drop.
Asia session opened with a 15-pip drop out of the 1.4105–1.4112 late-NY range. That leg retraced about 70% of the rally from the 1.4083 post-CPI low, which followed Monday's soft Canadian CPI spike. Price is now compressing between the 1.4089 asia low and a 1.4095 lower high, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 1.40891, 1.40832, 1.40701
Resistance: 1.40954, 1.41056, 1.41121
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4089 asia low exposes the 1.4083 post-cpi low and the 1.4070 swing low
M15 close above the 1.4095 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens 1.4106 asia high
Close back above the 1.4112 prior high invalidates the short-term down read
US housing starts/permits at 12:30 UTC could shift this read during NY hours
Post-CPI range 1.4083–1.4112, early Asia drop to range lower half.
An Asia drop off the 1.4106 asia shelf ran to an asia low at 1.4089. That keeps price in the lower half of the 1.4083–1.4112 range in place since Monday's soft Canada CPI, below the ema20 with RSI(14) near 36. The range top at 1.4112 rejected the CPI spike and the late NY push, and the move has stalled at the 23.6% of the Asia drop.
Support: 1.4089, 1.4083, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4097, 1.4106, 1.4112
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4083 post-cpi low exposes the 1.4070 cpi low
Reclaim of the ema20 and 1.4106 asia shelf puts the 1.4112 range top back in play
A clean break of 1.4112 ends the range read
US housing starts/permits at 12:30 UTC could shift the read later in the day
Broke below rollover range at Asia open; basing at Asian low.
Monday's soft Canadian CPI bounced the pair from the 1.4070 cpi low to the 1.4112 ny high. The Asian open then broke the 1.4105–1.4110 rollover range, falling to a 1.4089 asian low at the 50% retracement of that rebound. Price has since compressed between 1.4089 and 1.4095, with RSI(14) near 38 and ATR(14) at about 3.6 pips.
Support: 1.4089, 1.4083, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4106, 1.4112
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4089 asian low and the 61.8% retracement at 1.4086 exposes the 1.4083 ny pivot, then the 1.4070 cpi low
Reclaim of the 1.4106 rollover range reopens the 1.4112 ny high
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Housing Starts/Permits (12:30 UTC) could break the Asian range
Oil direction remains a CAD input while the 1.41 handle caps price
01:46 UTC
Pullback inside post-CPI range · RSI 31 · price 1.4092
Asia session broke below the 1.4106 shelf; holding above the 1.4083 post-CPI low.
The soft Canada CPI print lifted the pair off the 1.4070 day low, but NY highs at 1.4112 capped it twice. The Asia session then broke the 1.4106 shelf, and price is sitting near the 50% retrace of the post-CPI move just above the 1.4089 Asian low, with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 1.4089, 1.4083, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4106, 1.4112, 1.4124
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4083 post-cpi low opens the 1.4070 day low and the 61.8% retrace near 1.4086
Recovery back above the 1.4106 asian shelf returns price to the 1.4112 ny highs
Clearance of 1.4112 exposes the 1.4124 prior high from early London
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC could shift the read on USD tone
01:31 UTC
Short-term down, Asia selloff · RSI 29 · price 1.40916
Broke overnight range lower, below 1.4100 pivot.
Early Asia session broke the quiet 1.4105–1.4110 post-rollover range lower, sliding back under the 1.4100 pivot to a session low at 1.4089 with RSI(14) near 29. The drop retraces most of yesterday's grind up to the 1.4112 prior high, which followed the soft Canada CPI pop. The 1.4083 post-cpi low and the 1.4070 pre-cpi low sit below.
Support: 1.40891, 1.40832, 1.40701
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.41121, 1.41241
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4100 pivot negates the Asian range break
Failure at the 1.4083 post-cpi low exposes the 1.4070 pre-cpi low
Reclaim of the 1.4112 prior high reopens the 1.4124 day high from early London
Lower highs along the descending resistance line keep the Asia selloff structure intact
US housing starts/permits at 12:30 UTC could shift this read later in the day
01:16 UTC
Intraday down-leg, small bounce off lows · RSI 36 · price 1.40954
Asian range broken lower, lower highs since NY high.
Early Asia broke below the thin overnight range and the 1.4100 round number. Price tagged a 1.4089 session low before a modest bounce, with RSI(14) near 36 after dipping close to 30. Monday's soft-CAD-CPI pop from the 1.4070 monday low ran to a 1.4112 NY high, and that leg is now largely retraced back toward the 1.4083 post-CPI low.
Support: 1.40891, 1.40832, 1.40701
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.41048, 1.41121
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.4100 round number and the 1.4105 asian low puts price back inside the overnight range. The fib 50% of the NY high–session low drop also sits near 1.4101.
Failure to hold the 1.4089 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4083 post-CPI low, then the 1.4070 monday low.
US Housing Starts and Building Permits at 12:30 UTC could reshape the NY session range.
01:03 UTC
Range, early Asia pullback · RSI 35 · price 1.40954
1.4070–1.4112 range; Asia lower high at the pivot.
The soft Canada CPI lifted the pair off the 1.4070 cpi low, but NY-session highs stalled three times at the 1.4112 prior high. The Asia session opened with a 17-pip slide from the 1.4106 rollover range to a 1.4089 asian low, near the 50% fib of that recovery. Price is now holding just under the 1.4100 pivot, with RSI(14) near 35.
Support: 1.4089, 1.4083, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4112, 1.4124
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4100 pivot negates the Asia pullback read
Failure to hold the 1.4089 asian low exposes the 1.4083 ny low and the 61.8% fib near 1.4086
Loss of the 1.4070 cpi low breaks the session range to the downside
Clearance of the 1.4112 prior high reopens the 1.4124 monday high
Asia range break lower; higher lows from 1.4070 still intact.
The soft Canada CPI miss lifted the pair off the 1.4070 day low to a 1.4112 prior high late in NY. In early Asia the session dropped out of its 1.4105–1.4109 asia floor and lost the 1.4100 round number, and is now sitting on the 50% fib of that rally with RSI(14) near 27. The rising trendline from the post-CPI higher lows sits just below, around the 1.4083 post-cpi low.
Support: 1.4091, 1.4083, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4106, 1.4112
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4083 post-cpi low breaks the higher-low trendline and reopens the 1.4070 day low
Recovery above the 1.4100 round number and the 1.4106 asia floor would make the Asia drop a false break
Close above the 1.4112 prior high extends the post-CPI rally structure
Range 1.4083–1.4112 after CPI; top rejected three times, Asian floor lost.
Monday's soft Canadian CPI lifted USD/CAD off the 1.4070 session low into a range top at 1.4112, which capped price three times through NY. The early-Asia drop has cut through the Asian low at 1.4105 and the 1.4100 psych level. Price now sits near the 38.2% fib of the post-CPI move with RSI(14) around 31; the 50% fib at 1.4091 and the NY low at 1.4083 are the next references.
Support: 1.40911, 1.40832, 1.40701
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.41048, 1.41121
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4100 psych and Asian low at 1.4105 negates the Asian breakdown
Failure to hold the 1.4083 ny low breaks the post-CPI range and exposes the 1.4070 session low
Range top at 1.4112 remains the area to watch for rejection or break
US Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30 UTC; Canada Retail Sales Fri could materially shift this read
00:16 UTC
Intraday recovery stalling, drifting lower in early Asia · RSI 36 · price 1.4103
Higher lows off 1.4070 capped at 1.4112; tight 1.4105–1.4109 Asian range.
The soft Canadian CPI print lifted USDCAD off the 1.4070 day low. The NY-session CPI rally then stalled at 1.4112, a double top with the CPI-spike high. Early Asia is slipping out of a thin 1.4105–1.4109 range toward the 1.4100 round number, with ATR compressed to under 3 pips.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4083, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4112, 1.4127
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4100 round number exposes the 1.4083 CPI low and the rising support line
Close above the 1.4112 CPI high voids the double top and opens the 1.4127 prior high
Loss of the 1.4070 day low would erase the full CPI rally
US Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30 UTC could shift the read
00:02 UTC
Recovery stalled, drifting lower in Asia · RSI 38 · price 1.4103
Range 1.4083–1.4112 after London sell-off and CPI pop.
London open broke the prior Asian range lower, falling from the 1.4127 Asian high to a 1.4070 session low. The soft Canada CPI print at 12:30 UTC popped the pair to the 1.4112 CPI high, and the move faded to a 1.4083 post-CPI low. Late NY then met rejection at 1.4112 a second time, and Asia is now slipping toward the 1.4100 pivot, still within roughly 72% of the London drop.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4083, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4112, 1.4127
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4100 pivot exposes the 1.4083 post-CPI low, then the 1.4070 session low
Close above the 1.4112 CPI high breaks the double cap and puts the 1.4127 Asian high back in play
No scheduled USD/CAD data in the next 8h; US equity tone and oil are setting direction into London