USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Monday, 19 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Recovering intraday, stalling below NY high · RSI 57 · price 1.41062
Higher lows off day low, capped at 1.4112, tight early-Asia band.
The soft Canadian CPI print at 12:30 UTC sparked a spike from the 1.4070 day low to 1.4112. The CPI rally faded, then NY ground back to the 1.4112 ny high by 19:00 UTC, where it was rejected again. Early Asia is compressing in a 1.4105–1.4109 band just above the 1.4100 pivot, with RSI(14) near 57 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 1.41048, 1.40864, 1.40701
Resistance: 1.41121, 1.41272
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4112 ny high clears the repeated rejection and opens the path to the 1.4127 day high
Loss of the 1.4105 asian low exposes the 1.4086 ny swing low, then the 1.4070 day low
Holding above the CPI rally fib 38.2% at ~1.4096 keeps the post-CPI recovery structure intact
US tech/AI equity tone and oil remain the drivers around the 1.4100 pivot; no scheduled data in the next few hours
23:31 UTC
Post-CPI recovery, stalling under cap · RSI 41 · price 1.41052
Higher lows from 1.4070 pressing a flat 1.4112 ceiling.
The soft Canadian CPI print popped the pair off the 1.4070 Monday low. Higher lows at 1.4083 and 1.4086 carried it back into the 1.4112 post-CPI cap, which rejected price three times into the NY close. Tuesday's Asia session opened with a small gap lower and is drifting at the 1.4105 session low, sitting on EMA20 with RSI near 41 and ATR around 3 pips. Monday's Asian range high at 1.4127 remains unreclaimed since the London break.
Support: 1.41048, 1.40864, 1.40701
Resistance: 1.41121, 1.41272
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.4112 post-cpi cap breaks the ceiling and opens the 1.4127 Asian high
Loss of the 1.4105 session low puts the higher-lows trendline near 1.4099 and the 38.2% rally fib at 1.4096 in play
Break of the 1.4086 swing low ends the higher-low chain and reopens the 1.4070 Monday low
No scheduled USD/CAD data in the next 8h; US tech equity tone and oil remain the swing drivers
Tight early-Asia range under 1.4112 cap after CPI rebound.
London broke below Monday's Asian range to a london low at 1.4070 before the soft Canada CPI miss lifted the pair back to 1.4112. Late NY retested that ny high and was capped, and early Asia is holding a 5-pip box just above the 1.4105 asia low, with RSI(14) flat near 48.
Support: 1.41048, 1.40832, 1.40701
Resistance: 1.41121, 1.41284
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4112 ny high opens the 1.4128 monday high (Asian range top)
Failure to hold the 1.4105 asia low brings the 1.4083 cpi low and 50% fib of the CPI rally near 1.4091 into play
Sustained trade below the 1.4100 pivot keeps the London london low at 1.4070 in view
Canada Retail Sales (Fri) and BoC Oct 28 are the next scheduled CAD catalysts; nothing major due this session
23:02 UTC
Recovering off day low, flat under cap · RSI 48 · price 1.41057
Higher lows since CPI, capped at 1.4112.
London broke below the Asian range and printed a day low at 1.4070 before the soft Canada CPI miss sparked a rebound. NY then built higher lows along a rising trendline from the 1.4083 post-CPI low, but 1.4112 has capped as the session high on three tests. Post-rollover trade in early Asia is a tight 1.4105–1.4109 band, just under the 1.4100-area pivot's upper edge, with RSI(14) neutral near 48 and ATR(14) about 3.6 pips.
Support: 1.41048, 1.40832, 1.40701
Resistance: 1.41121, 1.41272
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4112 session high reopens the 1.4127 Asian high from Monday's Asian range
Failure to hold the 1.4105 late low puts the rising trendline and the 1.4083 post-CPI low in focus
A break of the 1.4070 day low would undo the CPI rebound and reestablish lower lows
No scheduled USD or CAD data in the next 8h; Asia session liquidity is thin and moves can be small
22:46 UTC
Recovering from day low, stalled under NY high · RSI 55 · price 1.41059
Range 1.4083–1.4112 after the post-CPI rebound, lower high vs prior high.
Soft Canada CPI lifted USDCAD off the 1.4070 day low to the 1.4112 NY high. That cap rejected the pair again late in the NY session, roughly the 61.8–70% retrace of the 1.4129 prior high to day-low drop. Thin early Asia trade since rollover is holding 1.4105–1.4109, just above the 1.4100 round number.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4083, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4112, 1.4129
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4112 NY high clears the fib zone and exposes the 1.4129 prior high
Loss of the 1.4100 round number reopens the 1.4083 post-CPI low, with the 1.4070 day low below
No scheduled USD/CAD data in the next 8h. Direction defers to US tech equities and oil until Friday's Canada retail sales and US PMIs
Post-CPI higher lows capped by a triple cap at 1.4112.
USD/CAD lost the Asian range in early Europe and hit 1.4070 before the soft Canada CPI miss sparked a spike to 1.4112. NY then carved higher lows at the 1.4083 post-CPI low and the 1.4093 higher low, but 1.4112 has held as a triple cap. Early Asia is drifting near 1.4106 after the rollover, at the 1.4100 pivot, with RSI(14) flat around 52.
Support: 1.41048, 1.40926, 1.40832
Resistance: 1.41121, 1.41295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4112 triple cap reopens the Asian range toward the 1.4130 asian high
Loss of the 1.4105 rollover low, then the 1.4093 higher low, breaks the higher-low sequence and the rising line
Break of the 1.4083 post-CPI low puts price below the 61.8% of the cpi rally fib and exposes 1.4070
Thin liquidity in early Asia after the rollover; any renewed AI-equity selling in risk markets could hit USD
22:02 UTC
Recovered from London low, now flat under 1.4112 · RSI 55 · price 1.41087
Post-CPI range 1.4083–1.4112, below the Asian range.
Asia held a 1.4115–1.4130 range before London broke the Asian low and extended to a 1.4070 session low. The soft Canada CPI miss at 12:30 UTC sparked a pop to the 1.4112 cpi high. That level has capped three times since, and the late-NY recovery off the 1.4083 post-cpi low has stalled just beneath it at 1.4109 through the rollover.
Support: 1.40832, 1.40701
Resistance: 1.41121, 1.41152, 1.41295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4112 cpi high puts price back toward the 1.4115 asian low and the 1.4130 asian high
Loss of the 1.4083 post-cpi low, near the 61.8% of the cpi swing, exposes the 1.4070 session low
No scheduled data in the next 8h; USD is tracking US tech-equity swings, which could break the post-CPI range in thin Asia hours
London open sold off from 1.4124 out of the 1.4113–1.4134 Asian range to a 1.4070 session low. The soft Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC lifted the pair to the 1.4112 cpi high. Rising lows through NY have pressed back into that cap three times. Price is idling at 1.4108 after the rollover, holding above the 1.4105 rollover low.
Support: 1.4105, 1.4093, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4112, 1.4124, 1.4134
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4112 cpi high breaks the cap and opens the london open level at 1.4124, then the asian high at 1.4134
Break of the rising lows line and the 1.4105 rollover low shifts focus to the 1.4093 higher low
Failure at 1.4093 puts the 1.4070 session low back in play; renewed US tech-equity selling is the main USD driver in thin Asia trade
NY higher lows capped at 1.4112, still below Asian range.
USDCAD slid from the 1.4115–1.4134 Asian range through London to a 1.4070 day low, then the soft Canada CPI miss (3.1% vs 3.2%) popped it to the 1.4112 cpi high. The NY grind higher off the 1.4083 ny low has stalled three times at that level, which sits on the 61.8% fib of the day's drop. Price is holding just above the 1.4100 round number into thin post-rollover Asia trade.
Support: 1.4100, 1.40832, 1.40701
Resistance: 1.41121, 1.41338
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4112 cpi high reopens the Asian range toward the 1.4134 asia high
Loss of the 1.4100 round number, then the 1.4083 ny low, breaks the NY higher-low sequence
A break of the 1.4070 day low exposes the ~1.4050 area flagged in the CAD digest
Thin liquidity after the rollover gap; no scheduled USD/CAD data until US housing starts Tue 12:30 UTC
Late-NY higher lows stalling under a repeatedly tested NY high.
The soft Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC lifted USD/CAD off the 1.4070 session low. The 1.4112 NY high has since rejected four tests, leaving price below the Asian range, whose top sits near the 1.4130 asian high. Late-NY higher lows along the late-ny line carried price back to the 1.4100 pivot, but the move stalled into the rollover with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 1.41056, 1.40832, 1.40701
Resistance: 1.41121, 1.41295
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4112 ny high breaks the cap and opens a move back into the Asian range toward the 1.4130 asian high
Sustained trade below the late-ny line and the 1.4105 late-ny low turns the late-NY recovery into a lower high under 1.4112
Loss of the 1.4083 cpi low, near the 61.8% of the cpi rally fib, exposes the 1.4070 session low
Thin Asia session after rollover; next scheduled risk is Tuesday's US ADP and housing data
21:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend from day low, pressing resistance · RSI 66 · price 1.41112
Higher lows since the 1.4070 day low; flat cap at 1.4112 cpi high.
London broke below the Asian range and ran to a 1.4070 day low before the soft Canada CPI miss and a firmer US 10-year yield sparked a recovery. Late in the NY session price is retesting 1.4112, the cpi high that has capped three times, at the 61.8% retracement of the Asian high-to-day low drop, with the rising trendline intact.
Support: 1.41056, 1.40864, 1.40701
Resistance: 1.41121, 1.41241, 1.41338
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4112 cpi high opens the 1.4124 london break level, then the 1.4134 asian high
Loss of the 1.4106 swing low and the rising trendline near 1.4100 would put the 1.4086 higher low in play
Break back below the 1.4086 higher low exposes the 1.4070 day low and negates the recovery structure
Thin liquidity into the Asia session open may produce false breaks at the cpi high
20:46 UTC
Recovery from session low, stalling at cpi high · RSI 63 · price 1.41086
Higher lows since 1.4070, triple cap at 1.4112.
The London-session slide from the london high at 1.4124 bottomed at the session low of 1.4070 before the soft Canadian CPI print at 12:30 UTC sent price straight to 1.4112. Rising lows at 1.4083 (ny low) and 1.4086 carried a late-NY grind back to that cpi high, the 78.6% retracement of the London drop, where price has stalled three times and now sits on the 1.4100 pivot.
Support: 1.41057, 1.40832, 1.40701
Resistance: 1.41121, 1.41241, 1.41338
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4112 cpi high clears the 78.6% retrace and opens the london high at 1.4124, then the asia high at 1.4134
Break below the 1.4106 micro low puts the rising-lows trendline and the 1.4083 ny low back in play
Loss of the 1.4070 session low resumes the London downtrend
Thin Asia-session liquidity after NY close; Tuesday's US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC are the next scheduled catalyst
Higher lows off 1.4070 session low; triple cap at the 1.4112 cpi high.
London broke the 1.4107 Asian low and extended to a 1.4070 session low. The soft Canadian CPI then sparked a pop to the 1.4112 cpi high. Off the 1.4083 NY low, price has carved higher lows along a rising trendline back into the Asian range late in NY, but 1.4112 has now capped three times with RSI(14) near 68.
Support: 1.4107, 1.4083, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4112, 1.4134
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4112 cpi high breaks the triple cap and opens the 1.4134 asian high
Loss of the rising trendline and the 1.4107 asian low exposes the 1.4083 ny low, then the 1.4070 session low
61.8% of the cpi-low fib (1.4086) held the 17:30 dip; a break below it undoes the post-CPI recovery
No scheduled US/CAD data before Tuesday's US housing starts/permits; equity/AI-stock swings remain the USD driver
20:16 UTC
Recovering from London low, pressing post-CPI high · RSI 68 · price 1.41112
Higher lows since 1.4083, third test of 1.4112.
London broke below the Asian range to a 1.4070 session low. The soft Canada CPI miss then spiked the pair to the 1.4112 CPI high, which capped twice. Late NY has built higher lows off the 1.4083 NY low and is testing that CPI high a third time, back above the 1.4100 pivot, with RSI(14) near 68 and price above both EMAs.
Support: 1.4093, 1.4083, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4112, 1.4127
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4112 CPI high opens the 1.4127 Asian high, the level London broke from
Third rejection at 1.4112 keeps the post-CPI range intact; losing the 1.4093 higher low breaks the late-NY chain
Asia session starts shortly with thin liquidity; Tue US housing starts/permits 12:15–14:00 UTC is the next scheduled risk
Higher lows off the 1.4083 post-CPI low, testing 1.4112 cap.
Soft Canada CPI spiked the pair off the 1.4070 session low, and the late-NY rise has carried it back into the 1.4112 CPI high for a third test, with RSI(14) near 68. Higher lows since the 1.4083 post-CPI low keep the intraday uptrend intact. The weekend gap to 1.4136 is still open just above the 1.4134 Asian high.
Support: 1.41056, 1.40832, 1.40701
Resistance: 1.41121, 1.41338, 1.41364
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4112 CPI high opens the 1.4134 Asian high and 1.4136 gap fill
Break of the 1.4106 micro low and the late-NY rise trendline puts the 1.4083 post-CPI low back in play
Loss of 1.4083 exposes the 1.4070 session low and the session-low-to-high retracement
Thin liquidity into the NY close and Asia session can stall the push at the CPI high
US housing starts/permits Tue 12:15–14:00 UTC are the next scheduled USD risk
London open broke below the Asian range and ran to a 1.4070 session low before the soft Canada CPI miss spiked price to the 1.4112 cpi high. The spike faded to a 1.4083 higher low, and higher lows through late NY hours have carried price back above the 1.4100 psych level for a third test of the cpi high, with RSI(14) firm but not stretched. The weekend gap toward Friday's 1.4136 close, just above the 1.4134 asian high, is still open.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4083, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4112, 1.4134
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4112 cpi high exposes the 1.4134 asian high and the weekend gap
Loss of 1.4100 psych and the 1.4083 higher low returns price to the post-CPI range
Break of the 1.4070 session low resumes the London decline
Late NY into Asia session, thin liquidity; Tue 12:15–14:00 UTC US housing data is the next scheduled risk
Post-CPI higher-low chain pressing the 1.4112 cpi high.
The London-session slide to the 1.4070 day low reversed on the soft Canada CPI miss at 12:30 UTC. Late NY has since built rising lows from the 1.4083 swing low back to the 1.4112 cpi high, now on its third test. Price holds just above the 1.4100 psych pivot with RSI(14) near 67. Overhead sit the asian high at 1.4130 and the Sunday gap fill at 1.4136.
Support: 1.4100, 1.40832, 1.40701
Resistance: 1.41121, 1.41295, 1.41364
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4112 cpi high opens the asian high at 1.4130 and the gap fill at 1.4136
A third rejection at 1.4112 followed by a slip under 1.4100 psych turns the cpi high into a capping level
Break of the 1.4083 swing low ends the rising lows sequence; loss of the 1.4070 day low reinstates the London downtrend
No scheduled USD/CAD data in the next 8h. US housing starts are due Tue 12:30 UTC, and thin late-NY/Asia liquidity can exaggerate moves at 1.4112
Higher lows since 1.4070; 1.4083–1.4112 post-CPI range.
The London open broke below the Asian range and ran to a 1.4070 session low before the soft CAD CPI miss spiked price to the 1.4112 cpi high, which was rejected twice. Higher lows at 1.4083 and 1.4086 have since carried price back to 1.4106 in late NY, holding near the 61.8% retracement of the CPI leg. RSI(14) is near 65 and ATR(14) is under 5 pips.
Support: 1.40832, 1.40701
Resistance: 1.41119, 1.41241
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4112 cpi high reopens the Asian range, with the asian high at 1.4124 next
Break of the rising trendline and the 1.4083 higher low returns focus to the 1.4070 session low
Third rejection at 1.4112 keeps the 1.4083–1.4112 range intact
Holding above the 1.4100 pivot keeps the CPI fade read in play
A weekend gap lower and a London break of the Asian range ran USDCAD to a 1.4070 session low. Soft Canada CPI then sparked a spike to the 1.4111 CPI high, which was rejected twice. Late NY has built higher lows from the 1.4083 swing low and is back above 1.4100 psych, testing the 61.8% of the Asia-London leg just under the CPI high, with RSI(14) near 65.
Support: 1.4100, 1.40832, 1.40701
Resistance: 1.41119, 1.41338
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4111 CPI high opens the 1.4134 Asian high and Friday's unfilled gap near 1.4136
A slip back below 1.4100 psych and the 1.4083 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and re-exposes the 1.4070 session low
Thin liquidity after NY close into the Asia session; next scheduled risk is US housing starts Tue 12:30 UTC
18:46 UTC
Intraday recovery after London sell-off · RSI 61 · price 1.41042
Higher lows off 1.4083, capped below 1.4112 cpi high.
London broke the Asian range low near 1.4107 and ran to a 1.4070 session low. The soft Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC popped the pair to the 1.4112 cpi high, where it was rejected twice. Higher lows from the 1.4083 swing low have since lifted price back above the 1.4100 round number, into the 61.8% retrace of the London drop.
Support: 1.4100, 1.40832, 1.40701
Resistance: 1.41119, 1.41338
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4112 cpi high reclaims the Asian range and opens the 1.4134 asian high
Failure to hold the 1.4100 round number returns price to the post-CPI range below
Break of the 1.4083 swing low voids the higher-lows sequence and puts the 1.4070 session low back in play
No scheduled USD or CAD data in the next 8h; late NY moves likely to track USD tone and oil
18:31 UTC
Range after London selloff, bid into late NY · RSI 59 · price 1.41004
Post-CPI range 1.4086–1.4112, flat-to-higher lows, testing 1.4100 psych.
Weekly open gapped below Friday's 1.4136 close. London sold the pair from 1.4124 to a 1.4070 day low before the soft Canada CPI miss at 12:30 UTC sparked a spike to the 1.4112 cpi high, which saw rejection twice. Since then NY has held a 1.4086 range floor on flat-to-higher lows, and the late-session push is testing 1.4100 psych near the 61.8% of the London selloff.
Support: 1.4086, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4112, 1.4136
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4112 cpi high opens the gap fill toward 1.4136
Break of the 1.4086 range floor exposes the 1.4070 day low
Rejection at 1.4100 psych keeps the post-CPI range intact into thin late-NY and Asia session trade
18:16 UTC
Intraday down from Asia, now flat after CPI spike · price 1.40974
Late-NY compression in a 1.4086–1.4099 range below the 1.4112 cpi high.
No narrative produced.
Support: 1.4086, 1.4083, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4099, 1.4112, 1.4124
18:02 UTC
Post-CPI range after London-session decline · RSI 53 · price 1.40974
Sideways 1.4083–1.4112 range, holding at the 50% retrace of the London leg.
London session sold off from the 1.4124 london high to a 1.4070 session low. The soft Canada CPI print at 12:30 UTC spiked the pair to 1.4112, but that cpi high was rejected twice and price has since held a 1.4083–1.4112 range into late NY. Price sits at the 50% fib of the London leg, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 1.40832, 1.40701
Resistance: 1.41119, 1.41241
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4112 cpi high breaks the range and puts the 1.4124 london high in view
Failure to hold the 1.4083 range low reopens the 1.4070 session low
Quiet calendar until US Housing Starts Tue 12:30 UTC, so range conditions likely persist through Asia
Lower highs since 1.4111 CPI high; tight range late NY.
The pair gapped lower at the Sunday open, and London broke the Asian range low to set a session low at 1.4070. Soft Canadian CPI then sparked a spike to the 1.4111 cpi high. That spike was rejected twice, leaving a small double top and lower highs. After London close, price is compressing in a 1.4086–1.4098 range, with the range low sitting on the 61.8% fib of the CPI spike and RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 1.4086, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4098, 1.4111
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4086 range low (61.8% fib) exposes the 1.4070 session low
M15 close above 1.4098 range top and the lower-highs line reopens the 1.4111 cpi high
Oil reaction to the US pause on Russian fuel sanctions remains the CAD swing factor into the NY close
After a weekend gap lower, London broke the Asian range and drove the pair to a 1.4070 session low. The soft Canadian CPI print at 12:30 UTC sparked a squeeze to 1.4112, but the pair was rejected twice at that cpi high and has since compressed between the 1.4083 range low and the 1.4098 range cap late in the NY session. Price is sitting around the 50% retracement of the CPI leg, with RSI(14) neutral at 52 and ATR(14) near 7.6 pips.
Support: 1.4083, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4098, 1.4111, 1.4124
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4098 range cap reopens the 1.4111 cpi high, with the 1.4124 asian high beyond it
Failure to hold the 1.4083 range low, below the 61.8% of the CPI leg, exposes the 1.4070 session low
No scheduled data in the next 8h; US Housing Starts on Tue 12:30 UTC and oil swings are the next drivers of this read
17:02 UTC
Down from Asian range, flattening in NY · RSI 46 · price 1.4095
London break below Asian range, CPI spike faded, lower highs in NY.
London broke below the Asian range and slid to the london low at 1.4070. The soft Canadian CPI miss at 12:30 UTC spiked the pair to the cpi high at 1.4112, a 77% retrace of the London leg, which was rejected twice. Since then NY has compressed into a 1.4083–1.4098 box under a line of lower highs, with price flat on both EMAs late in the session.
Support: 1.4083, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4098, 1.4112
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4098 lower highs and the NY trendline breaks the compression and puts the 1.4112 cpi high back in view
Loss of the 1.4083 ny low exposes the 1.4070 london low, near the 1.4075 level flagged in the CAD digest
No scheduled US or CAD releases in the next 8h; post-London liquidity keeps ranges near 8 pips per bar
Canada Retail Sales Fri 12:30 UTC is the next data risk that could reshape this read
USDCAD gapped lower at the weekly open, broke the Asian range around London open and slid to a 1.4070 day low before the soft Canada CPI miss lifted it to the 1.4112 CPI high. That high was rejected twice. A lower high at 1.4098 has price drifting back toward the 1.4083 NY low late in the NY session, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 1.40832, 1.40701
Resistance: 1.40978, 1.41119, 1.41338
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4083 NY low exposes the 1.4070 day low
Close above the 1.4098 lower high, then the 1.4112 CPI high, breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.4134 Asian high in view
Thin scheduled risk until Tue 12:30 UTC US Housing Starts; Canada Retail Sales Fri is the next CAD driver
Lower highs below 1.4112, compressing 1.4083–1.4098 in NY.
After a weekend gap lower, London broke the Asian range and printed a session low at 1.4070. The soft Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC drove a ~40-pip squeeze that hit rejection at the 1.4112 cpi high, near the 61.8% fib. NY has since printed lower highs and is compressing at EMA20 around 1.4093, capped by the ema50 near 1.4098 and holding above the 1.4083 swing low.
Support: 1.40832, 1.40701
Resistance: 1.4098, 1.41119, 1.41338
What it said to watch
Close above 1.4098 (ema50 and NY highs) reopens the 1.4112 cpi high and 61.8% fib
Loss of the 1.4083 swing low exposes the 1.4070 session low and extends the lower-low sequence
Clearing 1.4112 and the 1.4134 asia high would negate the London breakdown; a renewed tech-equity selloff is the main USD downside risk per the digest
16:16 UTC
Down from weekly open, post-CPI bounce stalling · RSI 49 · price 1.4095
Post-CPI range 1.4083–1.4112 below the broken Asian range.
Weekly open gapped below Friday's close, the Asian range low gave way into London, and the slide bottomed at the 1.4070 session low. The soft Canadian CPI miss at 12:30 UTC lifted the pair to a 1.4112 CPI high, where the old Asian range floor capped twice and left lower highs. After London close, price is rotating mid-range above the 1.4083 post-CPI low, sitting at EMA20 with RSI neutral near 49.
Support: 1.4083, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4112, 1.4134
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4112 cpi high reclaims the Asian range and opens 1.4134 asian high, near the weekend gap
Break of the 1.4083 post-cpi low exposes the 1.4070 session low and returns the CPI leg to the 61.8% fib area
Lower highs since the CPI spike remain intact while price holds below the trendline
US tech-equity swings and the oil slide are the main drivers for the rest of NY hours, with no scheduled data in the next 8h
16:02 UTC
Range after CPI spike, momentum neutral · RSI 50 · price 1.4095
Higher low at 1.4083 under 1.4112 double top, range 1.4083–1.4112.
Price broke below the Asian range into London and set a session low at 1.4070. The soft Canadian CPI at 12:30 UTC lifted it to the 1.4112 cpi high, and a second test at 13:30 was rejected. Since then pullbacks have held the 1.4083 swing low near the 61.8% cpi spike fib, on a line of rising lows. Price is sitting mid-range after London close, with RSI(14) at ~50 and price straddling EMA20/EMA50.
Support: 1.4083, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4112, 1.4134
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4112 cpi high negates the double top and puts the 1.4134 asian high in view
Loss of the 1.4083 swing low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 1.4070 session low
No scheduled USD/CAD data in the next 8h; oil and US equity tone drive NY afternoon flows
Lower highs below 1.4112 after the CPI spike; holding above 1.4083.
The soft Canadian CPI at 12:30 UTC lifted USD/CAD off the 1.4070 session low to a 1.4112 CPI high. A second test at 13:30 was rejected, and the pair slid to a 1.4083 post-CPI low around the 14:30 BoC survey. Price is now back near the 61.8% of the post-CPI fib, below EMA20/50, with a lower high at 1.4098 into the London close.
Support: 1.40832, 1.40701
Resistance: 1.40978, 1.41115, 1.41338
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4083 post-cpi low exposes the 1.4070 session low
Close above the 1.4098 lower high breaks the lower-highs line; above the 1.4112 cpi high negates the double top and opens the 1.4134 Asian high
No scheduled USD/CAD data in the next 8h; oil and US equity swings are the likely NY-afternoon drivers
15:31 UTC
Post-CPI bounce off London low, capped below 1.4112 · RSI 58 · price 1.40967
London-session lower lows to 1.4070, then NY range 1.4083–1.4112.
USDCAD broke below the Asian range and slid through London to a 1.4070 session low on broad USD softness. The soft Canadian CPI miss then sparked a spike to the 1.4112 cpi high. Supply has capped that level twice in the NY session, and the dip to the 1.4083 ny low held near the 61.8% retrace of the CPI leg.
Support: 1.4083, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4112, 1.4134
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4112 cpi high breaks the double cap and puts the 1.4134 asian high back in view
Loss of the 1.4083 ny low reopens the 1.4070 session low, near the 1.4075 support cited in the CAD digest
BoC Business Outlook Survey details (released 14:30 UTC) could extend or reverse the post-CPI swing
Lower highs from the Asian range; 1.4070–1.4112 range since the CPI spike.
Monday gapped lower and London broke beneath the Asian range, printing a session low at 1.4070 before the soft Canadian CPI miss drove a 40-pip spike to the 1.4112 cpi high. Two rejections there and a slide during the Business Outlook Survey release have price back near 1.4088. That is roughly a 56% retrace of the CPI spike fib, below EMA20/50 and just above the 1.4083 survey low.
Support: 1.40832, 1.40701
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.41119
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4100 round number reopens a test of the 1.4112 cpi high
Break of the 1.4083 survey low exposes the 1.4070 session low and the 1.4075 support flagged in the digest
Close below the 1.4070 session low extends the lower-low sequence from the Asian range
Oil weakness after the Russian sanctions pause remains a CAD-side swing factor during NY hours
Double top at 1.4111–1.4112, price testing 1.4088 neckline.
Price broke out of the Asian range at 1.4110–1.4124 just before London and fell to a 1.4070 session low. The soft Canada CPI then lifted it to the 1.4112 CPI high, but a second test at 1.4111 an hour later was rejected and the pair slid after the 14:30 UTC BoC survey. Mid-NY session, price sits back below the ema20 and is probing the 61.8% fib of the CPI leg at the double-top neckline.
Support: 1.4086, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4094, 1.4100, 1.4112
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4086 (61.8% fib) confirms the double top and puts the 1.4070 session low back in play
Recovery through the ema20 and the 1.4100 round number, then above the 1.4112 cpi high, negates the rejection read
No scheduled USD or CAD data in the next 8h; oil and AI-equity swings into the NY afternoon are the main drivers to monitor
London lower-low sequence broken by CPI spike; now ranging 1.4088–1.4112 with higher lows.
London broke the Asian range low near 1.4107 and printed a 1.4070 session low before the soft Canada CPI miss (3.1% vs 3.2%) drove a ~40-pip CPI spike. Since then two pushes have been rejected at the 1.4112 CPI high while higher lows formed at 1.4088 and 1.4097. Price is coiling mid-range in early NY with the BoC Business Outlook Survey just released.
Support: 1.40969, 1.40882, 1.40701
Resistance: 1.41119, 1.41338
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4112 CPI high reclaims the Asian range and opens the 1.4134 Asian high
Break of the 1.4097 higher low and then the 1.4088 post-CPI low unwinds the rebound and exposes the 1.4070 session low
BoC Business Outlook Survey details (out 14:30 UTC) could shift CAD during NY hours
London broke the Asian range lower and printed a 1.4070 session low before the soft Canada CPI miss at 12:30 UTC triggered a rebound. Higher lows at 1.4088 and the 1.4100 round number are holding along a rising trendline. The 1.4112 CPI high has capped twice, with price sitting on the 61.8% of the London drop fib and right at EMA50.
Support: 1.4100, 1.40882, 1.40701
Resistance: 1.41119, 1.41241, 1.41364
What it said to watch
BoC Business Outlook Survey at 14:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.4112 CPI high opens the path to the 1.4124 drop origin, then the 1.4136 Friday close weekend gap
Failure to hold the 1.4100 round number and the rising trendline exposes the 1.4088 higher low and the 1.4070 session low
Higher low at 1.4088 after 1.4070 session low; capped at 1.4112.
London broke below the Asian range (1.4107–1.4134) and extended to a 1.4070 session low before the soft Canada CPI miss lifted the pair about 40 pips. The 1.4112 CPI high has rejected twice in early NY hours. Price is holding just above the 1.4100 round number, with the 1.4088 post-CPI low forming a higher low and RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4088, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4112, 1.4134
What it said to watch
BoC Business Outlook Survey at 14:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.4112 cpi high opens the path back to the 1.4134 asian high
Failure to hold the 1.4088 post-cpi low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 1.4070 session low
Sustained trade below the 1.4100 round number puts the pair back inside the London consolidation
London lower low at 1.4070, post-CPI higher low at 1.4088.
Early London broke the Asian range low at 1.4107, extending to a session low of 1.4070 before the soft Canada CPI miss at 12:30 UTC drove a 40-pip rebound. Price is retesting the old Asian low from below, with rejection twice at the 1.4112 post-CPI cap. It now sits at the 61.8% fib of the 06:00–11:45 drop and is holding a higher low at the 1.4088 CPI pullback.
Support: 1.4088, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4112, 1.4134
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4112 post-CPI cap puts the 1.4134 Asian high back in play
Loss of the 1.4088 CPI pullback low reopens the 1.4070 session low
BoC Business Outlook Survey at 14:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Break of the post-CPI rising trendline voids the higher-low structure
Lower highs from 1.4124, post-CPI consolidation near 50% retrace.
After a weekend gap lower and an Asian range capped at the 1.4134 asian high, London ground down to a 1.4070 session low. The soft Canada CPI miss lifted the pair about 40 pips to a 1.4112 cpi spike hi that was rejected. Price is now compressing between the 1.4088 post-cpi low and the 1.4102 post-cpi hi, around the 50% retrace of the London decline.
Support: 1.4088, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4102, 1.4112, 1.4134
What it said to watch
BoC Business Outlook Survey at 14:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.4102 post-cpi hi brings the 1.4112 cpi spike hi back into play
A break below the 1.4088 post-cpi low reopens the 1.4070 session low and fully fades the CPI move
A close above the 1.4112 cpi spike hi breaks the lower-high sequence toward the 1.4134 asian high
Lower highs since Asian range break; CPI spike rejected, price back in London-hours range.
USDCAD gapped lower at the Sunday open, broke below the Asian range before London and printed a session low at 1.4070. The soft Canada CPI miss spiked price to the 1.4112 cpi high, about 76% of the London drop fib, where it was rejected. Price now sits near the 38.2% level around 1.4092, just above the 1.4088 london low and under psych 1.4100.
Support: 1.4088, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4112, 1.4134
What it said to watch
BoC Business Outlook Survey at 14:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.4112 cpi high reopens the 1.4134 asian high
Failure to hold the 1.4088 london low puts the 1.4070 session low back in focus
Repeated rejection under psych 1.4100 keeps price inside the London drop fib's lower half
Lower highs through London; post-CPI bounce stalled under the Asian range.
Monday opened on a gap lower, and London broke the 1.4107–1.4134 Asian range to a 1.4070 session low. The broad Canada CPI miss lifted price to the 1.4112 cpi high, a retest of the Asian range low from below that drew a rejection. Price is now holding near the 50% retrace of the London decline, just under the 1.4100 round number and above the 1.4088 range floor.
Support: 1.4088, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4112, 1.4134
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4112 cpi high puts price back inside the Asian range and opens the 1.4134 asian high
Post-CPI bars capped just under the 1.4100 round number; a failure there keeps the London decline structure intact
Loss of the 1.4088 range floor puts the 1.4070 session low back in play
BoC Business Outlook Survey at 14:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower lows through London to 1.4070; CPI bar reclaimed the London base and is testing the Asian range low.
Monday gapped lower and the Asian range (1.4107–1.4134) gave way into the London open. Selling extended to a 1.4070 session low, a false break just under the 1.4075 support cited ahead of Canada CPI. The 12:30 UTC CPI bar gapped up and spiked ~34 pips to 1.4112, reclaiming the london base at 1.4088 and returning price to the asian low; RSI(14) has rebounded to ~60.
Support: 1.4088, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4107, 1.4134
What it said to watch
A close back below the london base at 1.4088 would turn the CPI spike into a failed reversal and reopen the 1.4070 session low
A break below the 1.4070 session low resumes the London lower-low sequence
Acceptance above the asian low at 1.4107 and the 78.6% fib near 1.4113 brings the asian high at 1.4134 into play
BoC Business Outlook Survey at 14:30 UTC could extend or unwind the CPI move
USDCAD gapped lower at the Sunday open and dropped out of the 1.4107–1.4134 Asian range around 06:00 UTC, then broke the 1.4088 range floor of the London consolidation from 10:00 UTC. Lower highs carried it to a 1.4070 session low ahead of Canada CPI, extending the selloff from 1.4124 on broad USD softness, with RSI(14) near 28.
Support: 1.40701, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4081, 1.40878, 1.41012
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC: hot core vs the 1.9% forecast and a break of the 1.4070 session low opens the 1.4000 round number
A soft core print that lifts price back above the 1.4081 last pivot breaks the lower-highs trendline
Reclaim of the 1.4088 range floor, near the 38.2% of the 1.4124–1.4070 selloff, puts the 1.4101 london high back in play
BoC Business Outlook Survey at 14:30 UTC could extend CPI volatility
Lower highs and lower lows below a broken Asian range.
Monday's bearish gap, then a pre-London break below the 1.4107 Asian low, extended the soft-USD slide to a 1.4070 session low, just through the 1.4075 support flagged in the CAD digest. Price is flattening above the low into Canada CPI. RSI(14) sits near 33, not oversold, and the old London low at 1.4088 lines up with the sell-off's 38.2% retracement near 1.4091.
Support: 1.4070, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4088, 1.4101, 1.4107
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c ~1.9%) lands within the next bar or two and could materially shift this read
A sustained break below the 1.4070 session low extends the lower-low chain and opens 1.4000, the round number and 50-DMA area
An M15 close above the 1.4101 london high, through the sell-off 61.8%, breaks the lower-high sequence
Reclaiming the 1.4107 asian low would turn the pre-London range break into a false break
BoC Business Outlook Survey at 14:30 UTC is a second catalyst during NY hours
Lower highs and lower lows since London open's Asian range break.
USD/CAD gapped lower at the Monday open on broad USD softness. London open broke the Asian low at 1.4107, and a second leg in late London set a session low at 1.4070, with lower highs at 1.4101 and 1.4098 capping each bounce. Price is holding just above that low into Canada CPI, with RSI(14) near 34 and the prior base at 1.4089 overhead, near the 38.2% fib of the drop.
Support: 1.40701
Resistance: 1.4089, 1.41012, 1.41071
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC: core above ~2.0% vs a soft print could materially shift this read within the bar
M15 close back above the 1.4089 prior base breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4070 session low extends the lower-low chain
Reclaim of the 1.4107 Asian low would neutralise the London range break
BoC Business Outlook Survey at 14:30 UTC is a second CAD catalyst
Gap-down open, Asian range broken lower, late-London range break below 1.4089.
USD/CAD gapped about 23 pips lower at the Monday open. London then broke the 1.4107–1.4134 Asian range as broad USD softness extended the third-day slide. A late-London range break below the 1.4089 range low has price testing the 1.4075 session low, with RSI(14) near 29 and lower highs capping since the 1.4101 London high.
Support: 1.40747, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4089, 1.41012, 1.41071
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c ~1.9%) is under an hour away and could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 1.4075 session low extends the lower-low chain, with the 1.4000 round number the next marked level
A reclaim of the 1.4089 range low and the lower-highs trendline brings the 38.2–50% London drop fib (1.4094–1.4099) and the 1.4101 london high back into play
Recovery back above the 1.4107 Asian low would invalidate the London breakdown read
BoC Business Outlook Survey at 14:30 UTC is a second CAD catalyst within the session
Lower highs below broken London range, new low at 1.4079.
USD/CAD gapped lower at the weekly open. The 1.4124 drop origin gave way around 06:00 UTC, and the soft-USD tone carried price through the 1.4088 London low to a 1.4079 session low. A lower-highs trendline from the 1.4101 swing high is capping bounces, and RSI(14) is near 30 with price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.40791, 1.4075
Resistance: 1.40878, 1.41012, 1.41241
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c ~1.9%) and the BoC BOS at 14:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold 1.4075 key support extends the lower-low sequence
An M15 close back above the 1.4088 London low and the lower-highs trendline neutralises the breakdown
Recovery through the 1.4101 swing high toward the 1.4124 drop origin would reverse session structure
Lower highs below broken Asian range, fresh session low.
A weekend gap lower from 1.4136 led into a flat Asian range of 1.4107–1.4134. That range broke at London open as the soft-USD tone persisted, and the London drop has printed lower highs at 1.4101 and 1.4098 along a descending trendline. Price sits at a fresh session low of 1.4083, through the early-London low at 1.4088, with RSI(14) ~38 and not stretched; key support at 1.4075 is just below.
Support: 1.4083, 1.4075
Resistance: 1.4088, 1.4101, 1.4107
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c ~1.9%) could materially shift this read; BoC Business Outlook Survey follows at 14:30 UTC
M15 close back above the 1.4101 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and stalls the sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4075 key support extends the session low; a reclaim of the 1.4088 london low signals the push is stalling
Return inside the Asian range above the 1.4107 asian low would neutralise the London drop
11:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 37 · price 1.4083
Weekend gap lower, Asian range broken at 06:00 UTC, new session low.
USDCAD gapped about 23 pips below Friday's 1.4136 close. Asia held below the 1.4124 breakdown shelf until a 06:00 UTC drop ahead of London open, in line with the soft-USD digest. London has printed lower highs under the 1.4101 London high and is pressing a fresh session low at 1.4083, a few pips above key support at 1.4075, with RSI(14) near 37 and not yet oversold.
Support: 1.4083, 1.4075
Resistance: 1.4101, 1.4124, 1.4136
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC (core vs ~1.9%) and the BoC Business Outlook Survey at 14:30 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close below 1.4075 key support extends the lower-low sequence
A close back above the 1.4101 London high breaks the lower-high trendline; the 1.4124 breakdown shelf and the 1.4136 gap fill sit above
Lower highs pressing 1.4087 session low after Asian range break.
After a weekend gap lower, USDCAD broke the Asian range low at 06:00 UTC, ahead of London open, on a softer USD. Since then it has compressed in a 1.4087–1.4100 band, with lower highs at 1.4101, 1.4099 and 1.4098, and price is now probing the session low. RSI(14) is near 36 and ATR(14) about 6 pips ahead of Canada CPI.
Support: 1.4087, 1.4075
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4115, 1.4127
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC and the BoC Business Outlook at 14:30 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 1.4087 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.4075, the cpi pivot flagged as support
An M15 close above the 1.4100 range top breaks the lower-high trendline and the compression
A reclaim of 1.4115 (asian low) puts price back inside the 1.4115–1.4127 Asian range, with the asian high as the range top
Post-break shelf 1.4088–1.4101 below the broken Asian range.
USD/CAD gapped lower at the weekly open, then broke the 1.4107 Asian low from 06:00 UTC on a soft USD. Since London open it has held a 13-pip shelf, with the 1.4088 session low tested four times and the rebound capped at the 1.4101 range top, near the 38.2% retrace of the drop. Price sits at the shelf base, below EMA20/EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral near 44.
Support: 1.4088, 1.4075
Resistance: 1.4101, 1.4107, 1.4124
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read; BoC Business Outlook Survey follows at 14:30 UTC
M15 close below the 1.4088 session low extends the lower-low chain toward macro sup at 1.4075
Close back above the 1.4101 range top and 1.4107 Asian low reopens the 1.4124 drop origin
Asian range break lower, tight London range 1.4088–1.4101.
After Monday's gap lower, Asia held a 1.4115–1.4130 band. The 06:00 UTC drop then broke the Asian low and set a session low at 1.4088, pushing the three-week low below 1.4100 as broad USD softness persisted. London has since compressed in a 13-pip box between the 1.4088 range floor and the 1.4101 range top, which sits at the 38.2% retrace; RSI(14) is near 42.
Support: 1.4088, 1.4050
Resistance: 1.4101, 1.4115, 1.4124
What it said to watch
Canada Sept CPI at 12:30 UTC (core trim/median vs ~1.9%) could materially shift this read, with ATR only ~6 pips going in
M15 close below the 1.4088 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4050 round number
M15 close above the 1.4101 range top and 38.2% retrace opens the 1.4115 asian low and the 1.4124 breakdown shelf
BoC Business Outlook Survey at 14:30 UTC is a second catalyst inside the NY session
10:02 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a tight base · RSI 42 · price 1.40951
Post-breakdown range 1.4088–1.4101 below the Asian range.
Monday's gap lower was followed by a quiet Asian range between the 1.4107 Asian low and the 1.4134 Asian high. That range broke in a sharp drop to 1.4088 ahead of London open, with USD softness from the AI-equity unwind behind the move. Price has since held a 1.4088–1.4101 box, the session low tested three times and the range top capping at the 38.2% fib of the drop, RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 1.40885
Resistance: 1.4101, 1.41071, 1.41338
What it said to watch
Canada Sept CPI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.2% y/y, core trim/median ~1.9%) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.4088 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 1.4101 range top and back through the 1.4107 Asian low neutralises the breakdown
BoC Business Outlook Survey at 14:30 UTC is a second volatility point after CPI
Bearish gap, Asian range break lower, tight base above 1.4088.
Monday opened with a roughly 23-pip bearish gap below Friday's 1.4136 close as USD softness extended. The Asian base near 1.4124 gave way just before London open, and price flushed to a 1.4088 session low. Since then the pair has held a 13-pip consolidation between 1.4088 and a 1.4101 range top, which sits on the 38.2% fib of the London drop, with the session low tested three times and RSI(14) recovering to around 41.
Support: 1.40878
Resistance: 1.41012, 1.41241, 1.41338
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4088 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 1.4101 range top (38.2% fib) reopens the 1.4124 asian base, then the 1.4134 asian high
Canada Sept CPI at 12:30 UTC (core trim/median vs ~1.9%) and the BoC BOS at 14:30 UTC could materially shift this read
09:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after leg lower · RSI 38 · price 1.40938
Asian range broken lower, lower highs into a tight band above the session low.
Monday gapped lower from Friday's 1.4136 close. At 06:00 UTC price broke below the Asian low at 1.4115 and the 1.41 psych level, falling to a 1.4088 session low as the softer USD tone extended. The London session has since compressed in a 1.4089–1.4101 band, with the bounce capped at the 38.2% fib. RSI(14) is near 38.
Support: 1.40878
Resistance: 1.41012, 1.41152, 1.41364
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 GMT, where core trim/median vs ~1.9% matters more than the headline, could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 1.4088 session low extends the lower-low sequence
A close back above 1.41 psych and the lower-high line reopens the asian low at 1.4115
A move through 1.4115 puts the unfilled gap to the 1.4136 friday close in play
BoC Business Outlook Survey at 14:30 GMT is a second event risk
09:16 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after London breakdown · RSI 31 · price 1.40908
Lower highs and lows; tight base 1.4088–1.4101 below broken range.
USDCAD gapped lower at the Monday open, then held a flat Asian range below its 1.4124 range top. Early London broke that range and cut through the 1.4100 round number to a 1.4088 london low, extending the soft-USD, Fed-pause move. The rebound stalled at 1.4101, the 38.2% level of the breakdown fib, and price is compressing just above the low with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 1.40878
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.41241
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4088 london low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.4100 round number and the 50% breakdown fib (1.4106) shifts the read back toward range; 1.4124 range top is the breakdown origin
Canada CPI at 12:30 GMT (core trim/median vs ~1.9%) and BoC Business Outlook Survey at 14:30 GMT are likely to resolve the current compression
Bearish open gap, Asian range broken lower, lower high capped at 1.4101.
USD/CAD gapped about 23 pips lower at the Monday open and held a 1.4107–1.4134 Asian range. From 06:00 UTC it broke through the asian low and the 1.4100 round number to a session low at 1.4088 as the soft USD tone extended. Early in the London session the bounce stalled at 1.4101, a retest from below that also marks the 38.2% level of the pre-London drop, with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 1.40878
Resistance: 1.41012, 1.41071, 1.41338
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 GMT, where core trim/median versus ~1.9% matters more than headline, could materially shift this read
An M15 close back above the asian low at 1.4107 would negate the range break
Failure to hold the session low at 1.4088 extends the lower-low sequence
The asian high at 1.4134 coincides with Friday's low and marks the gap-fill level
Repeated rejection at the 1.4100 round number keeps the retest read intact
08:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing near lows · RSI 32 · price 1.40935
Gap lower, Asian range break, base forming 1.4088–1.4101.
Monday opened on a gap below Friday's 1.4136 close. Early London broke the 1.4107 asian low and the 1.4100 round number, extending to the 1.4088 london low as the soft-USD / firm-CAD tone carried through. The bounce stalled at 1.4101, right at the 38.2% fib of the London drop. Price is now consolidating 1.4088–1.4101 with RSI(14) near 32, below both EMAs.
Support: 1.40878
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.41071, 1.41241
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4088 london low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.40 zone.
An M15 close back above the 1.4107 asian low puts price back inside the pre-London range and negates the range break.
A recovery to the 1.4124 drop origin would fully retrace the London leg.
Canada CPI at 12:30 GMT (core trim/median vs ~1.9%) and the BoC BOS at 14:30 GMT could materially shift this read.
Asian range broken lower; price retesting 1.41 handle from below.
After Monday's gap down, USD/CAD held a tight Asian range. Early European selling broke the 1.4107 asian low and the 1.41 handle, and the 1.4088 session low has now been tested three times, with the softer USD on Fed-hold pricing behind the leg. Price is pressing back into 1.4100, near the 38.2% retrace, with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 1.4088
Resistance: 1.4101, 1.4107, 1.4124
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 1.41 handle followed by a break of the 1.4088 session low extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close back above the 1.4107 asian low (50% retrace) puts price back inside the Asian range and weakens the breakdown read
Recovery through the 1.4124 range top would fully negate the European-hours leg
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC and the BoC Business Outlook Survey at 14:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Bearish gap, Asian range broken lower, bounce retesting 1.4100 from below.
USDCAD gapped about 23 pips lower at the open as Fed-hold pricing kept the USD soft. Price then broke below the 1.4107–1.4134 Asian range from the 1.4124 breakdown point ahead of the London open. Buyers held the 1.4088 session low twice, and the bounce is now pressing the 1.4100 psych level, close to the 38.2% fib of the drop.
Support: 1.4088
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4107, 1.4124
What it said to watch
Rejection at 1.4100 psych keeps the lower-high sequence intact; an M15 close back above the 1.4107 asian low puts price back inside the Asian range
Failure to hold the 1.4088 session low confirms a lower-low
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC, with core trim/median vs ~1.9%, and the BoC Business Outlook Survey at 14:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A move back toward the 1.4124 breakdown point would retrace most of the London-open leg
07:46 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower into early London · RSI 31 · price 1.40962
Asian range broken lower; 1.4100 floor lost, shallow bounce capped below it.
USDCAD gapped about 23 pips lower at the weekly open and held a tight 1.4115–1.4130 Asian range. Selling from the 1.4124 breakdown point into the London open then broke the asian low and the 1.4100 round number, printing a 1.4088 session low as Fed-hold pricing weighs on USD. RSI(14) sits near 31, and the bounce stalls below 1.4100, which aligns with the 38.2% of the drop fib.
Support: 1.40878
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.41071, 1.41241
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC (core trim/median vs ~1.9%) and the BoC BOS at 14:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 1.4100 round number and the 1.4107 asian low (50% fib) would mark the breakdown as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4088 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery through the 1.4124 breakdown pt negates the London-open selloff
07:31 UTC
Downtrend, RSI near oversold · RSI 28 · price 1.40941
Monday gap lower, Asian range broken at London open, lower lows.
Monday opened with a ~23-pip gap below Friday's 1.4136 close. The London open then broke the Asian low at 1.4107 and the 1.4100 multi-week-low area, as the USD softened on Fed-hold pricing, and printed a session low at 1.4088. RSI(14) sits near 28 on a minor bounce, with the 1.4100 round number overhead at the 38.2% of the London leg.
Support: 1.40878
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.41071, 1.41241
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC (core trim/median vs ~1.9%) and the BoC Business Outlook Survey at 14:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Recovery back above the 1.4100 round number and the 1.4107 Asian low would turn the London break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4088 session low extends the London leg
A move back above 1.4124, where the London open move started, negates the London leg breakdown
07:16 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive leg at London open · RSI 22 · price 1.40913
Asian range broken lower, fresh session low below 1.4100.
USD/CAD opened the week with a bearish gap below Friday's 1.4136 close, held a tight 1.4107–1.4134 Asian range, then broke the Asian low at the London open. The pair sliced through the 1.4100 psych handle to a 1.4090 session low as the USD stayed soft on Fed-hold pricing. RSI(14) near 22 is stretched after a roughly 34-pip leg, and the 1.4103–1.4107 retrace zone of that drop on the London drop fib lines up with the broken Asian low.
Support: 1.4090, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4107, 1.4134
What it said to watch
Canada Sep CPI at 12:30 UTC and BoC Business Outlook Survey at 14:30 UTC could materially shift this read; core trim/median vs ~1.9% is the swing factor
M15 close back above the 1.4107 Asian low would mark the London break as a false break
Acceptance below the 1.4090 session low extends the lower-low sequence, with the 1.4000 round number the next level cited by Scotiabank
Rejection at 1.4100 psych on a bounce keeps the breakdown structure intact
06:46 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower · RSI 32 · price 1.41077
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range broken to the downside ahead of London open.
USDCAD gapped about 23 pips lower at the weekly open and stalled just shy of a gap fill at 1.4134. It then compressed in a 1.4115–1.4124 Asian range under a falling trendline of lower highs, until selling ahead of London open broke the Asian low and set a session low at 1.4105. RSI(14) sits near 32 with the 1.4100 round number just below, as Fed-pause pricing keeps USD soft into Canadian CPI.
Support: 1.41048, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.41152, 1.41241, 1.41338
What it said to watch
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC (core vs ~1.9%) and the BoC Business Outlook Survey at 14:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.4100 round number extends the lower-low chain beyond the session low
Recovery back above the asian low at 1.4115 (38.2% fib) would mark the break as a false break
Falling trendline and the 61.8% fib converge near the 1.4124 range top; a close above it neutralises the lower-high sequence
06:31 UTC
Drifting lower after weekend gap, below both EMAs · RSI 37 · price 1.41124
Post-gap Asian range with lower highs; micro-band broken lower pre-London.
Monday opened about 23 pips below Friday's 1.4136 close, a gap the digest ties to Fed-pause bets weighing on USD. Asia held 1.4107–1.4134 with lower highs, then compressed into a 1.4118–1.4124 band. The 06:00 UTC bar broke below that range top band just ahead of London open, leaving price near the asian low and the 1.4100 round number with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 1.4107, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4124, 1.4134
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.4107 asian low and the 1.4100 round number extends the post-gap lower-low sequence
A recovery back above the 1.4124 range top and the asia lower highs trendline would neutralise the breakdown
The unfilled gap to Friday's 1.4136 close sits just above the 1.4134 asian high
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC and the BoC Business Outlook Survey at 14:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:16 UTC
Flat after gap lower, compressing · RSI 56 · price 1.41223
Tight coil inside Asian range, rising lows.
USDCAD opened Monday with a bearish gap from Friday's 1.4136 close as Fed-pause bets kept USD heavy. The Asian range is 1.4107–1.4134, with the gap fill still open overhead. Since 02:00 UTC price has coiled in a 9-pip band between the 1.4115 swing low and the 1.4124 coil top on rising lows, with ATR near 3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.41152, 1.41071
Resistance: 1.41241, 1.41338, 1.41364
What it said to watch
Canada Sep CPI at 12:30 UTC and the BoC Business Outlook Survey at 14:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.4124 coil top exposes the 1.4134 Asian high and the 1.4136 gap fill
Break of the rising lows and the 1.4115 swing low opens the 1.4107 Asian low
Tight Asian range inside the gap, higher lows off 1.4115.
USDCAD gapped about 23 pips lower at the open, below Friday's 1.4136 close, as Fed-pause bets weighed on USD. The Asian high at 1.4134 stopped just short of a gap fill, and late in the Asia session price is compressing near 1.4122. Higher lows are building off the double low at 1.4115, while the 1.4130 swing high caps the range.
Support: 1.41152, 1.41071
Resistance: 1.41295, 1.41338, 1.41364
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4130 swing high reopens the asian high at 1.4134 and the gap fill at 1.4136
Loss of the 1.4115 double low and the rising-lows line puts the 1.4107 session low back in play
London open is likely to expand a 3-pip ATR range that is currently compressed
Canada Sep CPI at 12:30 UTC, then the BoC survey at 14:30, could materially shift this read; core broadening is the key
05:31 UTC
Heavy after gap lower, compressing · RSI 46 · price 1.4120
Monday gap below Friday close, lower highs inside Asian range.
USDCAD opened the week with a gap lower from Friday's 1.4136 close on firmer Fed-pause bets. An early Asia spike to the 1.4134 asian high stopped short of the gap fill, and price has since printed lower highs, now coiling at 1.4120 in a 6-pip band above the 1.4115 asian low ahead of London open. ATR near 3 pips reflects thin Asia conditions, with price pinned just under the EMA20.
Support: 1.4115, 1.4107
Resistance: 1.4127, 1.4134, 1.4136
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4127 swing high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 1.4136 gap fill in play
Failure to hold the 1.4115 asian low exposes the 1.4107 week open low
Canada Sep CPI at 12:30 UTC, core/trim-median vs ~1.9%, could materially shift this read
BoC Business Outlook Survey at 14:30 UTC adds a second CAD event risk
Tight 1.4115–1.4123 range below unfilled weekend gap.
USD/CAD gapped about 23 pips lower at the weekly open, below Friday's 1.4136 close, as Fed-pause bets kept the USD heavy. The Asian high at 1.4134 has capped the bounce. Late Asia has compressed into a 7-pip band between the 1.4115 swing low and the 1.4123 range top, with price near a 35% retracement of the Asian high-to-low leg. ATR(14) has cooled to about 4 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.41152, 1.41071
Resistance: 1.4123, 1.41338, 1.41364
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4123 range top opens the Asian high at 1.4134 and the gap fill at 1.4136
Failure to hold the 1.4115 swing low exposes the 1.4107 gap low
Canada Sep CPI at 12:30 UTC and the BoC Business Outlook Survey at 14:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 1.4107–1.4134, higher lows within it, gap unfilled.
USDCAD gapped about 23 pips below the 1.4136 friday close on a soft USD and Fed-pause pricing. Asia set a 1.4107–1.4134 range: the asian high capped the gap fill, then a lower swing high at 1.4129 formed. Price has since coiled at 1.4117–1.4122 on higher lows off the 1.4115 swing low, with ATR down near 3 pips.
Support: 1.4115, 1.4107
Resistance: 1.4129, 1.4134, 1.4136
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4134 asian high fills the gap toward the 1.4136 friday close
Break of the higher-lows line and the 1.4115 swing low exposes the 1.4107 asian low
Canada Sep CPI at 12:30 UTC (core vs ~1.9%) and the BoC BOS at 14:30 UTC could break the compression
A move through the 1.4129 swing high would end the lower-highs sequence within the asian range
04:46 UTC
Downtrend paused, compressing after weekend gap · RSI 54 · price 1.41214
Friday lower highs into a bearish gap; late Asia coiling inside 1.4115–1.4134 range.
USD/CAD gapped about 23 pips lower at the weekly open on a heavy USD and Fed-pause pricing, printing the 1.4107 gap low before spiking to the 1.4134 Asian high. The Friday close at 1.4136 is still unfilled. Late Asia has compressed into a 5-pip band around 1.4120, between the 1.4115 Asian low and the 1.4127 swing high, with RSI(14) neutral near 54 and ATR(14) under 3 pips.
Support: 1.4115, 1.4107
Resistance: 1.4127, 1.4134
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4127 swing high reopens the 1.4134 Asian high and the 1.4136 gap fill
Failure to hold the 1.4115 Asian low exposes the 1.4107 gap low and extends Friday's lower-low sequence
Canada Sep CPI at 12:30 UTC (core vs ~1.9%) and the BoC Business Outlook Survey at 14:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight coil inside Asian range, lower highs over a flat 1.4115 base.
USDCAD gapped about 23 pips lower at the weekly open. The Asian range (1.4107–1.4134) has stalled short of the gap fill at Friday's 1.4136 close, with the soft-USD Fed-pause backdrop capping bounces. In late Asia session, price is coiling at the Asian range midpoint, just under EMA20, between the 1.4115 base and the 1.4127 lower high, with RSI(14) near 43 and ATR(14) about 4 pips.
Support: 1.4115, 1.4107, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4127, 1.4136
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4127 lower high puts the 1.4136 gap fill back in play
Failure to hold the 1.4115 base exposes the 1.4107 gap low and the 1.4100 round number
Canada Sep CPI at 12:30 UTC (core vs ~1.9%) and the BoC Business Outlook Survey at 14:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:16 UTC
Heavy after gap lower, compressing · RSI 42 · price 1.41196
Asian range 1.4107–1.4134, lower highs into tight coil.
Monday opened with a bearish gap below Friday's 1.4136 close as the soft USD carried over. The gap-fill attempt stalled at the 1.4134 asian high, and lower highs since then, including the 1.4127 swing high, have squeezed late-Asia price into a 1.4117–1.4121 coil. ATR has dropped to about 3 pips and RSI(14) is neutral near 42.
Support: 1.41152, 1.41071
Resistance: 1.41272, 1.41338, 1.4140
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4134 asian high fills the gap and brings the 1.4140 fair value area into view
Recovery through the 1.4127 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4115 swing low exposes the 1.4107 asian low and gap-day lows
London open in ~3h is likely to resolve the tight Asian coil
Canada Sep CPI at 12:30 UTC (core vs ~1.9%), then BoC BOS at 14:30, could materially shift this read
04:02 UTC
Heavy after bearish gap, compressing · RSI 41 · price 1.41196
Lower highs from 1.4134 Asian high onto a flat 1.4115 double low.
USD/CAD gapped about 23 pips lower at the Monday open, from Friday's 1.4136 close, as the USD stayed soft on ~84% Fed-hold pricing. The Asian session spiked to a 1.4134 Asian high, then printed a chain of lower highs, the latest at 1.4123, into a 1.4115 double low. The range has tightened to roughly 6 pips late in Asia, with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR(14) about 3.5 pips.
Support: 1.4115, 1.4107
Resistance: 1.4123, 1.4134
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4115 double low exposes the 1.4107 Asian low and extends the post-gap lower-low sequence
Close above the 1.4123 lower high breaks the lower-highs line; a move through the 1.4134 Asian high puts the 1.4136 Friday close gap fill in play
London open could break the compressed Asian range in either direction
Canada Sep CPI at 12:30 UTC, then the BoC Business Outlook Survey at 14:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs pressing onto a flat 1.4115 base in Asia.
Monday opened with a ~23-pip bearish gap below Friday's 1.4136 close as the soft USD carried over. The early Asia spike to the 1.4134 asia high stalled just shy of a gap fill. Price has since printed lower highs into a 1.4115 range base, and ATR(14) has compressed to ~4 pips late in the Asia session.
Support: 1.4115, 1.4107
Resistance: 1.4127, 1.4134
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.4115 range base exposes the 1.4107 asia low at the opening gap
A close above the 1.4127 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 1.4134 asia high and the 1.4136 gap fill
London open in ~3h is the first test of the compressed Asian range
Canada Sep CPI at 12:30 UTC (core vs ~1.9%) and the BoC BOS at 14:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Short-term downtrend, compressing after gap · RSI 42 · price 1.41199
Lower highs into a flat 1.4115 base after weekly-open gap down.
USDCAD gapped about 23 pips lower at the weekly open as Fed-pause pricing weighed on USD. The pair has since compressed through Asia, with a lower-highs line from 1.4129 pressing price toward the flat 1.4115 asian low. The gap fill toward Friday's 1.4136 close is untouched above 1.4134, ATR(14) has shrunk to ~5 pips, and RSI(14) is near 42.
Support: 1.41152, 1.41071
Resistance: 1.41272, 1.41338
What it said to watch
Break below the 1.4115 asian low exposes the 1.4107 gap low
M15 close above the lower-highs line and the 1.4127 asian high reopens the 1.4134 gap fill
London open in ~4h is the first test of the compressed Asian range
Canada Sep CPI at 12:30 UTC and the BoC BOS at 14:30 UTC could materially shift this read; core at or above 2.0% vs ~1.9% expected is the swing factor
03:16 UTC
Heavy after weekend gap, drifting lower in Asia · RSI 43 · price 1.41188
Lower highs from the 1.4134 open spike, flat lows near 1.4115.
USDCAD gapped about 23 pips below Friday's 1.4136 close as Fed-pause pricing kept USD heavy. The Asia session opened with a spike that stalled at Friday's low near 1.4134, and price has printed lower highs along a descending trendline since then. It is now compressing just above the 1.4115 Asia low, and the gap remains unfilled.
Support: 1.41152, 1.41071
Resistance: 1.41272, 1.4134, 1.41364
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4127 lower high breaks the descending trendline and puts the 1.4134 fri low / 1.4136 gap fill back in play
Failure to hold the 1.4115 Asia low exposes the 1.4107 open low
Canada Sep CPI at 12:30 UTC, then the BoC Business Outlook Survey at 14:30 UTC, could materially shift this read; core broadening is the key variable
03:02 UTC
Downtrend, compressing in late Asia · RSI 43 · price 1.41188
Post-gap range 1.4107–1.4134, lower highs into a 1.4115 base.
USDCAD gapped about 23 pips lower at the weekly open as Fed-pause bets weighed on USD, extending Friday's NY-session slide. The 1.4136 Friday close (gap fill) is still open after the Asian high stalled at 1.4134. Late Asia is compressing under a run of lower highs, with demand stepping in twice at the 1.4115 asian base, RSI(14) near 43 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 1.4115, 1.4107
Resistance: 1.4127, 1.4134, 1.4136
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.4115 asian base exposes the 1.4107 session low and the post-gap extension
A close above the 1.4127 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline, bringing the 1.4134 asian high and 1.4136 gap fill into play
London open is the first test of the Asian range
Canada Sep CPI at 12:30 UTC and the BoC Business Outlook Survey at 14:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:46 UTC
Heavy below Friday close, lower highs in Asia · RSI 37 · price 1.41179
Asian range 1.4107–1.4134 after gap down, lower highs pressing a 1.4115 double low.
USDCAD gapped about 23 pips lower at the open as Fed-pause odds near 84% weighed on USD. The opening spike stalled at the 1.4134 session high, just short of the 1.4136 gap fill. Since then the Asia session has printed lower highs under 1.4127, and price now sits at the 61.8% of the Asian range fib, pressing the 1.4115 double low.
Support: 1.41152, 1.41071
Resistance: 1.41272, 1.41338, 1.41364
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4115 double low exposes the 1.4107 session low and extends the gap-down structure
Break above the lower-highs trendline and 1.4127 lower high reopens the 1.4134 session high and 1.4136 gap fill
Canada Sep CPI at 12:30 UTC (core vs ~1.8–1.9%) and the BoC BOS at 14:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Hormuz headlines or a further WTI slide could override the Asian range
02:31 UTC
Down after weekend gap, Asia drifting lower · RSI 37 · price 1.41164
Lower highs inside Asian range, flat base 1.4115.
USDCAD gapped about 21 pips lower at the weekly open as Fed-pause bets weighed on USD. The early Asia spike to 1.4134 was rejected at Friday's low, leaving the gap unfilled. Since then the session has printed lower highs under a descending line and is pressing the 1.4115 session low, with RSI(14) in the high 30s and ATR near 5 pips.
Support: 1.4115, 1.4107
Resistance: 1.4127, 1.4134
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.4115 session low exposes the 1.4107 Asian low, the bottom of the weekend gap
Recovery above the 1.4127 swing high breaks the Asia lower-highs line; 1.4134 Fri low is the gap-fill test
London open in roughly 4.5h typically expands the Asian range
Canada Sep CPI at 12:30 UTC, then the BoC Business Outlook Survey at 14:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing inside Asian range · RSI 42 · price 1.41189
Weekend gap down, then lower highs inside a 27-pip Asian range.
USD/CAD gapped about 23 pips lower at the Sunday open from Friday's 1.4136 close, extending Friday's slide from 1.4193 as oil-supportive Hormuz headlines kept CAD firm. The Asian session has held a 1.4107–1.4134 range. Price sits near the 50–61.8% retracement of that range at 1.4119, below a swing high at 1.4129, with a higher low at 1.4115 and the gap fill still open.
Support: 1.4115, 1.4107, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4129, 1.4134, 1.4136
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.4115 higher low and the 1.4107 asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4100 round number
Reclaim of the 1.4134 asian high and the 1.4136 gap fill breaks the lower highs read
Canada Sep CPI at 12:30 UTC Mon: core above ~2.0% vs ~1.9% expected could materially shift this read
Fresh Hormuz/oil headlines during Asia can drive CAD beyond the session range
02:03 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in Asia consolidation · RSI 42 · price 1.41189
Gap-down open, Asian range compressing: lower highs vs higher lows.
USDCAD opened the week roughly 20 pips below Friday's 1.4136 close, extending the CAD-firm slide. The Asia session has held a 1.4107–1.4134 range with lower highs off 1.4134 and a higher swing low at 1.4115. The gap fill is still incomplete, and price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 1.4115, 1.4107
Resistance: 1.4129, 1.4136
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4115 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.4107 monday low
Close above the 1.4129 lower high puts the 1.4136 gap fill back in play
Canada Sep CPI at 12:30 UTC, then BoC Business Outlook at 14:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Hormuz/oil headlines during Asia could break the compression either way
01:46 UTC
Short-term down, flat in Asia · RSI 44 · price 1.4120
Post-gap range 1.4107–1.4134, lower highs.
Asia opened with a ~23-pip gap lower from Friday's 1.4136 close as oil-supportive Hormuz headlines backed CAD. The open spike stalled at the 1.4134 Friday low short of a gap fill. Price now sits on the 50% of the 1.4107–1.4134 open move, with a lower high at 1.4127 and the swing low at 1.4115 underneath.
Support: 1.4115, 1.4107
Resistance: 1.4127, 1.4134
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4134 Friday low fills the gap and breaks the lower-highs line
Failure to hold the 1.4115 swing low exposes the 1.4107 session low
Canada Sep CPI at 12:30 UTC (core vs ~1.9%) could materially shift this read
Oil and Hormuz headlines through the Asia session could extend the gap move or reverse it
01:31 UTC
Downtrend paused, compressing after weekend gap · RSI 48 · price 1.41207
Post-gap range 1.4107–1.4134, lower highs against higher lows.
The Sunday open gapped about 23 pips below Friday's 1.4136 close, extending the two-week slide as firm oil supported CAD despite the Hormuz-driven haven bid for USD. The early spike to 1.4134 stalled at the friday low, and early Asia session trade has since compressed between the 1.4115 higher low and the 1.4127 lower high, with RSI(14) near 48.
Support: 1.41154, 1.41071
Resistance: 1.41272, 1.4134
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4134 friday low fills the weekend gap and invalidates the compression read
Failure to hold the 1.4115 higher low exposes the 1.4107 gap low and the 1.4100 handle
Canada September CPI at 12:30 UTC, particularly the core measures, could materially shift this read
Oil and Hormuz shipping headlines through the Asia session remain the live driver for both legs
Weekend gap lower, Asian range compressing between a higher low and a lower high.
The Monday open gapped about 23 pips below Friday's 1.4136 close as oil firmed on weekend Hormuz headlines, extending Friday's 80-pip slide from 1.4197. The Asian range of 1.4107–1.4134 is tightening, with a higher low at 1.4115 and a lower high at 1.4129, while price sits just under EMA20 and the gap fill at 1.4136 remains unfilled.
Support: 1.41154, 1.41071, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.41295, 1.41338, 1.41364
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4134 asian high fills the gap toward 1.4136 and breaks the compression
Losing the 1.4115 higher low reopens the 1.4107 asian low and the 1.4100 round number
Canada Sep CPI at 12:30 UTC (core vs ~1.9%) could materially shift this read
Oil and Hormuz headlines during Asia could move CAD before London
Weekend gap lower, then a small rising-lows range from 1.4107 to 1.4134.
The Sunday open gapped about 23 pips below Friday's 1.4136 close, extending Friday's slide on softer USD and firm oil. The early bid stalled at the 1.4134 session high, just shy of a gap fill. Price is now holding rising lows from the 1.4107 week low through the 1.4115 swing low, chopping just under ema20 (1.4127) with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 1.41154, 1.41071
Resistance: 1.4127, 1.41338
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4134 session high fills the weekend gap and challenges Friday's 1.4136 close
Failure to hold the 1.4115 swing low breaks the rising-lows sequence and exposes the 1.4107 week low
Acceptance above ema20 at 1.4127 would turn the early-Asia chop into a recovery leg
Canada Sep CPI at 12:30 UTC (core vs ~1.9%) could materially shift this read; Hormuz/oil headlines are also a risk
00:46 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in early Asia · RSI 48 · price 1.41264
Gap-down open, tight Asian range with a higher low.
The week opened with a roughly 23-pip gap below Friday's 1.4136 close, extending Friday's NY-session slide as oil-supportive Hormuz headlines kept CAD firm. Early Asia has held a 1.4107–1.4134 session range, printing a higher low at 1.4115. Price is pinned just under EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 48, and the gap fill is still untested.
Support: 1.41154, 1.41071
Resistance: 1.41295, 1.41338, 1.41364
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4134 session high puts the 1.4136 gap fill in play
Failure to hold the 1.4115 higher low reopens the 1.4107 open low and resumes the downtrend
A rejection at the 1.4130 swing high keeps price inside the Asian range
Canada Sep CPI at 12:30 UTC (core vs ~1.9%) could materially shift this read
00:31 UTC
Downtrend, weekend gap lower · RSI 39 · price 1.4119
Unfilled gap below Friday low; Asian range 1.4107–1.4134.
USDCAD opened Monday with a ~23-pip gap below Friday's 1.4136 close, extending Friday's slide as softer US yields and firm oil kept CAD bid. The Asian spike stalled at 1.4134, the Friday low and the 38.2% retrace of the Friday swing fib, leaving the gap unfilled; price sits mid Asian range near 1.4119 with RSI(14) ~39.
Support: 1.4107, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4134, 1.4164
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.4107 Asian low and the 1.4100 round number extends the lower-low sequence
A reclaim of the 1.4134 Friday low fills the gap and brings the 1.4164 NY high back into view
Canada CPI at 12:30 UTC today; core above ~2% vs ~1.9% expected could materially shift this read
Hormuz/oil headlines into the London open carry gap-extension risk
Lower highs from 1.4187; weekend gap down, early-Asia spike rejected below gap fill.
Friday's lower highs at 1.4187, 1.4173 and the 1.4164 swing high carried into a ~23-pip gap down at the open, extending the slide on softer US yields and firm oil. The early-Asia spike to 1.41338 stalled just shy of the 1.41364 gap fill near the 50% retracement, and price has faded back toward the 1.41071 session low with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 1.41071, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.41338, 1.41364, 1.41643
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41364 fills the gap and challenges the lower-highs read; next reference is the 1.41643 swing high
Break below the 1.41071 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4100 round number
Canada Sep CPI at 12:30 UTC: core above ~2.0% vs ~1.9% expected could materially shift this read
Hormuz shipping and oil headlines during the Asia session add gap and spike risk
00:03 UTC
Downtrend, weekend gap extended the slide · RSI 36 · price 1.41156
Lower highs and lower lows; gap-fill rebound rejected.
USDCAD opened ~23 pips below Friday's 1.4136 close, extending Friday's decline as weekend Hormuz headlines fed the oil-led CAD bid. The early Asia session rebound stalled at 1.4134, just short of a full gap fill. Price has since faded back to 1.4116, more than 61.8% of the gap rebound retraced, with the 1.4107 session low and the 1.4100 round number below.
Support: 1.41071, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.41338, 1.41643
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.4134 completes the gap fill and puts the 1.4164 swing high back in play
Break of the 1.4107 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4100 round number
Further Hormuz or oil headlines during the Asia session carry additional gap risk
Canada Sep CPI at 12:30 UTC (core vs ~1.9%) could materially shift this read