21:05 UTC
Uptrend since August, correcting from 1.4300 · RSI 48 · price 1.41172
HH/HL chain from the Aug 21 low; 1.4200 range floor broken.
The rally from the Aug 21 swing low at 1.3732 built a base with the early-September lows and carried to 1.4299 on Oct 14, the highest since April 2025. That high was a rejection after three weekly attempts at 1.4300. Last week the pair broke the broken floor of the two-week 1.4200–1.4300 consolidation as falling Treasury yields lifted CAD. Monday's soft Canada CPI has so far only slowed the drop. Price now sits below EMA(20) but just above the rising EMA50 near 1.4094, between the 23.6% and 38.2% retracement of the Aug–Oct swing, with RSI back to neutral near 48.
Support: 1.4094, 1.4016, 1.3732
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4300
What it said to watch
- Daily close back above the 1.4200 broken floor would negate the range break and put the 1.4300 rejection highs back in view
- Daily close below the EMA50 near 1.4094 exposes the 50% fib at 1.4016 as the next retracement reference
- Loss of 1.4016 would turn the pullback into a deeper retracement of the Aug–Oct swing, with the 1.3732 swing low as the base of the move
- Canada retail sales and US PMIs on Fri Oct 23, then the BoC on Oct 28, could materially shift this read