21:05 UTC
Sept uptrend stalling, rolling over from triple top · RSI 54 · price 1.41364
HH/HL chain from Sept low capped at 1.4299; early-Oct range lost.
USD/CAD carried a month-long uptrend off the Sept low at 1.3759 into a triple top at 1.4293–1.4299. The final test came Wednesday, at the highest since April 2025, before two sessions of selling took price through the 1.4205 neckline, back below the June high and under EMA(20). The drop came on narrowing US-Canada spreads and dovish Fedspeak, despite hot US PPI and retail data. Price still holds above a rising EMA(50) near 1.4080, with the fib 38.2% retracement of the Sept–Oct rally at 1.4093 the first major test.
Support: 1.4093, 1.4005, 1.3759
Resistance: 1.4205, 1.4248, 1.4299
What it said to watch
- Daily close back above the 1.4205 neckline negates the triple top read and reopens the 1.4299 Oct high
- Daily close below the fib 38.2 at 1.4093 and EMA(50) exposes the July low at 1.4005
- Loss of 1.4005 leaves the Sept low at 1.3759 as the next major pivot
- Canada Sep CPI Mon Oct 19 12:30 UTC; core above ~2.0% vs ~1.9% expected could materially shift this read ahead of the BoC on Oct 28