Lower highs and lower lows since triple top near 1.4299.
A triple top at 1.4293-1.4299 capped the early-October range. The break of the 1.4195 range floor opened a sequence of lower highs and lower lows down to the 1.4013 swing low, as revived BoC hike pricing and firmer oil supported CAD. ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 19 pips with price grinding just above the 1.4000 round number. Both EMAs sit overhead, with EMA20 still below EMA50, and the descending trendline off the 1.4222 high continues to cap rebounds at successively lower highs.
Support: 1.40134, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40816, 1.41226, 1.4195
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.4000 round number extends the lower-low sequence beyond the 1.4013 swing low
Close above the 1.4082 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high sequence
Recovery through the 38.2% fib at 1.4123 would mark the first meaningful retracement of the slide from 1.4299
Range floor at 1.4195 is the breakdown level; a return there would put the range break in question
Canada Retail Sales and US flash PMIs Fri Oct 23 12:30-13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
BoC decision Oct 28 with a hike largely priced; a hold or one-off framing is the larger CAD risk
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4299 triple top.
USDCAD has printed lower highs and lower lows since three failed tests of 1.4293-1.4299. The slide has extended to a 1.4013 swing low, with oil strength and roughly 78% BoC hike pricing underpinning CAD against a softer USD. Price sits below both EMAs with EMA20 well under EMA50, and ATR(14) near 19 pips has eased from the mid-month expansion, leaving a slower grind toward the 1.4000 psych level, capped by the lower-highs trendline.
Support: 1.4013, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4082, 1.4112, 1.4156
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.4013 swing low and 1.4000 psych extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.4082 lower high (23.6% fib) would mark the first break of the lower-highs trendline
Recovery through the 1.4112 prior high and the fib 50% at 1.4156 would neutralise the downtrend read
Canada Retail Sales and US PMIs Fri Oct 23 could materially shift this read
BoC decision Oct 28, roughly 78% priced for a hike, is the larger event risk for CAD
Lower highs and lower lows since triple top at 1.4299.
USDCAD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the triple top at 1.4293–1.4299 gave way through its 1.4196 neckline mid-month. Price is now pressing the window low near 1.4013, just above the 1.4000 round number, with both EMAs overhead and the EMA20 below the EMA50. The slide tracks a heavier USD after the US housing misses and a firm CAD on oil and BoC hike pricing; RSI near 27 is oversold, while ATR(14) has eased to ~19 pips, pointing to a steady grind rather than an expanding move.
Support: 1.4013, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4082, 1.4123, 1.4196
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 1.4082 lower high, which sits near the 23.6% fib, would break the lower-high trendline and the lower-high sequence
Sustained trade below the 1.4000 round number extends the downtrend beyond the window low
A recovery through the 38.2% fib at 1.4123 would mark a deeper retracement; the 1.4196 neckline caps the broader structure
US Jobless Claims today, Canada Retail Sales and US PMIs Fri could materially shift this read; the BoC decision on Oct 28 is the larger event risk
05:03 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and compressing · RSI 22 · price 1.40363
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4299 triple top.
Three failed tests of 1.4293-1.4299 completed a triple top. The mid-month break of the 1.4196 neckline has since run into an unbroken sequence of lower highs beneath a falling trendline, with CAD supported by firm oil and heavy BoC-hike pricing. Price is now pressing the 1.4030 monthly low for a second time with RSI(14) near 22 and ATR(14) contracting to roughly 19 pips. The week's bounces stalled at the 1.4082 lower high, and EMA20 holds below EMA50, both above price.
Support: 1.4030, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4082, 1.4112, 1.4165
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.4030 monthly low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4000 round number
Recovery above the 1.4082 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; the 1.4112 swing high is the next cap
Retracement to the 50% fib at 1.4165 would put the decline from 1.4299 into deeper correction
Canada Retail Sales and US flash PMIs Fri 12:30-13:45 UTC could materially shift this read ahead of the Oct 28 BoC decision
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.4299; tight 1.4032-1.4082 base.
Three failures at 1.4293-1.4299 formed a triple top. The break of the 1.4196 neckline set off a 267-pip slide to the 1.4032 swing low, as BoC hike pricing and five-month-high oil firmed CAD. Each rebound has capped at a lower high, the latest at 1.4112 after Monday's soft Canadian CPI faded, and price sits below both EMAs with EMA20 under EMA50. The past ten bars have compressed into a 1.4032-1.4082 base, with ATR(14) easing to around 19-20 pips as the decline pauses above the one-month low.
Support: 1.4032, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4082, 1.4112, 1.4134
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.4032 swing low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 1.4000 round number
H4 close above the 1.4082 range top breaks the descending lower-highs line and puts the 1.4112 lower high and 38.2% fib at 1.4134 in focus
Canada Retail Sales Fri 12:30 UTC and US flash PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC could break the current base
BoC decision Oct 28 (~80% hike priced); a hold or dovish hike could materially shift this read