Lower highs and lows since the 11:00 UTC high, pressing the 1.4000 round number.
The slide resumed after the London high at 1.4044 capped the morning rebound. Oil-driven CAD strength pushed the NY session through the 1.4013 morning low into a 1.4004 ny shelf, and early Asia has slipped under that shelf to 1.4001, retesting the 1.4000 round number. RSI(14) is near 34 and ATR(14) has compressed to about 3 pips in thin post-rollover trade.
Support: 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40036, 1.40157, 1.40436
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 1.4000 round number extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery back above the 1.4004 ny shelf, then the 1.4016 swing high, would break the intraday lower-high chain
A move back above the 38.2% retracement near 1.4017 would put the London high fib back in play
Fri 12:30 UTC Canada Retail Sales and 13:45 UTC US PMIs could materially shift this read
23:31 UTC
Downtrend, grinding at the lows · RSI 38 · price 1.40023
Lower highs and lower lows since the London high; thin early-Asia drift above 1.4000.
USDCAD sold off from the 1.4044 London high through NY hours as oil-driven CAD strength extended the six-day slide. Price slipped under the 1.4004 NY low to a 1.4001 session low in early Asia, just above the 1.4000 round number, after the bounce stalled at the 1.4016 late-NY swing high. Lower highs since mid-NY remain intact, with RSI(14) near 38 and ATR(14) around 3 pips in thin post-rollover trade.
Support: 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40036, 1.40157, 1.40436
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 1.4000 round number extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery back above the 1.4004 NY low and then the 1.4016 swing high would break the lower-highs line
A retrace toward the 38.2–50% zone of the sell-off from the London high (1.4017–1.4022) is the first test of the downtrend read
Crude headlines on Saudi/Russian infrastructure strikes and US-Iran talks are the main CAD driver in Asia hours
Fri 12:30 UTC Canada Retail Sales and 13:45 UTC US PMIs could materially shift this read
23:16 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into a base · RSI 37 · price 1.4004
Lower highs from the 1.4044 London high; tight base at 1.4003–1.4006.
Oil-driven CAD strength pushed USD/CAD through 1.4020 in the NY session to a 1.4003 swing low, extending the lower-high sequence from the 1.4044 London high. The late-NY bounce stalled at 1.4016, below the 38.2% retracement of that drop. Early Asia is compressing just above the 1.4000 round number, with ATR(14) shrinking to about 3 pips.
Support: 1.4003, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4016, 1.4044
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.4000 round number confirms a lower-low beneath the 1.4003 swing low
Recovery above the 1.4016 late NY high reclaims the 38.2% fib and exposes the 50% at ~1.4024
Only a move back above the 1.4044 London high breaks the lower-high sequence
Crude headlines (Saudi/Russia strikes, US-Iran talks) can move CAD during the Asia session
Fri 12:30 UTC Canada Retail Sales and 13:45 UTC US PMIs could materially shift this read
NY lower-high/lower-low chain, now basing in thin post-rollover trade.
The London rally to the 1.4044 london high reversed in NY, with oil-backed CAD strength driving a slide through the 1.4024 breakdown area to a 1.4003 session low. The late-NY bounce stalled at 1.4016 (the bounce high). Price is now compressing in a 1–2 pip band just above the 1.4000 psych level, with ATR down to about 3 pips in rollover-thin Asia trade.
Support: 1.4003, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4016, 1.4024, 1.4044
What it said to watch
A close below 1.4000 psych extends the NY lower-low chain beyond the session low.
Recovery above the 1.4016 bounce high breaks the micro lower-high sequence and puts the 1.4024 breakdown area back in play.
On the NY selloff fib, the 50% level near 1.4024 lines up with the breakdown area; the london high at 1.4044 caps the full retrace.
Crude headlines from Gulf/Russia infrastructure strikes can move CAD in thin Asia hours.
Canada Retail Sales (Fri 12:30 UTC) and US PMIs (13:45 UTC) could materially shift this read.
22:46 UTC
Downtrend, basing at the day low · RSI 41 · price 1.40039
Lower highs from 1.4044; tight shelf at 1.4004 above 1.4000.
USD/CAD broke the 1.4022 NY range low after 15:30 UTC and slid to a day low at 1.4004 as oil-driven CAD strength held, extending a sequence of lower highs from the 1.4044 London high. A late-NY bounce faded at 1.4016, the bounce high, short of the 38.2% retrace. Price is back at the lows in thin post-rollover trade, just above the 1.4000 round number.
Support: 1.40036, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40157, 1.40222, 1.40436
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.4000 round number would extend the lower-low sequence beyond the day low
A close above the 1.4016 bounce high and the lower-highs trendline would neutralise the downtrend read; the 1.4022 NY range low sits just above
A move back above the 1.4044 London high would undo the day's breakdown
Canada Retail Sales (Fri 12:30 UTC) and US PMIs (13:45 UTC) could materially shift this read once London-NY trade resumes
Thin Asia session liquidity may keep the 1.4004–1.4016 band compressed until London open
22:31 UTC
Downtrend, stalling near day low · RSI 42 · price 1.40044
Lower highs since London high, tight base above 1.4000.
The late-NY drop out of the 1.4022–1.4039 NY range ran to a day low of 1.4004, tested four times. It came as the USD rebound faded and oil-driven CAD demand held. The bounce high at 1.4016 met rejection under the falling trendline, and price is now drifting in thin early-Asia trade just above the 1.4000 round number.
Support: 1.40036, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40157, 1.40225, 1.40436
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4000 round number extends the lower-low sequence from the london high at 1.4044
Reclaim of the 1.4016 bounce high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain; the ny range low at 1.4022 is the next cap
Canada Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and US PMIs (13:45 UTC) Friday could materially shift this read
Crude headlines on Saudi/Russian infrastructure strikes remain the main CAD swing factor
USD/CAD printed lower highs from the 1.4044 London high. NY broke the 1.4022 breakdown level and set a 1.4004 NY low as oil-driven CAD strength held. The late-NY bounce stalled at the 1.4016 NY high, short of the 38.2% retrace of the London high–NY low leg, and early Asia is idling in a thin 1.4005–1.4008 range just above the 1.4000 round number.
Support: 1.40036, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40157, 1.40222, 1.40436
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4004 NY low exposes the 1.4000 round number
M15 close above the 1.4016 NY high and the 1.4022 breakdown level would break the lower-high sequence
Fri 12:30 UTC Canada Retail Sales and 13:45 UTC US PMIs could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the London high, flat base at the 1.4004 session low.
USDCAD slid from the 1.4044 london high through NY hours to a 1.4004 session low. That low was tested three times just above the 1.4000 round number as oil-driven CAD strength held. A late bounce stalled at the 1.4016 late high under the lower highs line, and price is drifting near 1.4007 into the thin Asian open.
Support: 1.40036, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40157, 1.40436
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4000 round number extends the lower-low chain from the session low
Recovery above the 1.4016 late high and the lower highs line would put the 1.4044 london high back in view
Canada Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and US PMIs (13:45 UTC) on Friday could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from the London high, now pinned at the day low.
NY session printed lower highs from the 1.4044 London high down to a 1.4004 day low, as oil-driven CAD demand outweighed the USD claims bounce. The late-NY rebound was rejected at 1.4016, a retest of the broken low from the London open, and price now sits just above the 1.4000 round number in thin post-rollover trade with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 1.40036, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40157, 1.40436
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4004 day low and the 1.4000 round number extends the lower-low chain
M15 close above the 1.4016 broken low breaks the NY lower highs line and shifts the read toward a range
Fri 12:30 UTC Canada Retail Sales and 13:45 UTC US PMIs, plus crude headlines, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the London high; tight base at the NY low.
London broke the Asian low to 1.4013, but its rally to the 1.4044 London high faded. NY then extended to a 1.4004 NY low as the oil rally kept CAD bid. Three tests of that low held just above 1.4000 psych, and the late bounce stalled at 1.4016, short of the 38.2% fib of the London high-NY low leg, keeping the lower-highs line intact in thin post-NY trade.
Support: 1.4004, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4016, 1.4044
What it said to watch
Close below 1.4000 psych extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery through the 1.4016 bounce high breaks the lower-highs line and the base read
Rebound back above the 1.4044 London high would undo the London-NY decline
Oil headlines (Saudi/Russia strikes, US-Iran talks) can move this read during Asia
Fri Canada Retail Sales 12:30 UTC and US PMIs 13:45 UTC are the next scheduled catalysts
Lower highs and lower lows; post-NY bounce capped below the descending trendline.
The lower-high chain from the 1.4044 London high gave way during NY hours. Oil-driven CAD strength pushed the pair to a session low of 1.4004, just above the 1.4000 round number. The late bounce was rejected at the 1.4016 swing high, short of the fib 50% at 1.4024. RSI(14) sits near 47 in thin post-NY trade.
Support: 1.40036, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40157, 1.40236, 1.40436
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4004 session low and the 1.4000 round number extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 1.4016 swing high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain, with the fib 50% at 1.4024 next
Recovery above the 1.4044 london high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Canada Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and US PMIs (13:45 UTC) on Friday could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lows; base forming above 1.4004 day low.
USD/CAD sold off from the 1.4044 london high and broke the 1.4024 breakdown level during NY hours, as oil-driven CAD strength extended the six-day slide. Price based at a 1.4004 day low, tested three times. Late in the NY session the bounce stalled at the 1.4016 bounce high, at the 38.2% retrace of the NY selloff and under the lower-highs trendline, and the last bar gave most of it back.
Support: 1.40036, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40157, 1.40237, 1.40436
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.4004 day low resumes the lower-low chain and puts the 1.4000 round number in play
A recovery above the 1.4016 bounce high and the lower-highs trendline weakens the downtrend read, with 1.4024 breakdown next
Thin liquidity around the NY close and rollover can distort the read near the day low
Canada Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and US flash PMIs (13:45 UTC) on Friday could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4044, base at 1.4004 above 1.4000.
Oil-driven CAD strength extended the slide. The NY session broke the 1.4022 breakdown level and the london low, then based at a 1.4004 session low that held four times above the 1.4000 round number. The late NY push through the 1.4010 base top stalled at a 1.4016 late high, below the 38.2% retrace of the 1.4044–1.4004 leg.
Support: 1.4013, 1.4004, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4016, 1.4022, 1.4044
What it said to watch
Close back above the 1.4022 breakdown level (near the 38.2% fib) turns the bounce into a recovery toward the london high at 1.4044
Slip back below the 1.4013 london low returns price to the 1.4004–1.4010 base
Loss of the 1.4004 session low and the 1.4000 round number extends the lower-low sequence
Canada Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and US flash PMIs (13:45 UTC) Friday could materially shift this read
Lower highs from London high, range break lower, basing above 1.4000.
Lower highs from the 1.4044 London high gave way to a range break after London close. Price based at a 1.4004 session low just above the 1.4000 round number as oil-driven CAD strength held. The late-NY bounce has reclaimed the London low at 1.4013, with the 1.4020 break level (38.2% fib) the first cap overhead; RSI(14) is neutral near 52.
Support: 1.40134, 1.40036, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4020, 1.40387
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.4020 break level puts the 1.4039 lower high back in view and weakens the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4013 London low turns the bounce into a retest of the 1.4004 session low and the 1.4000 round number
Canada Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and US flash PMIs (13:45 UTC) on Friday could materially shift this read
Crude headlines on Gulf and Russian supply remain the main CAD driver
Lower highs from London high; tight late-NY range 1.4004–1.4011.
Asia slid from the 1.4045 area and the London rebound stalled at the 1.4044 London high. Lower highs followed, and NY broke the 1.4013 London low to print a 1.4004 session low three times, with CAD bid on the oil rally and BoC hike bets. Late NY has compressed into a 1.4004–1.4011 range just under EMA20, with RSI(14) back near 37 from oversold.
Support: 1.4004, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4013, 1.4024, 1.4044
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4004 session low and 1.4000 round number extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.4013 London low turns the late-NY range into a base; the 50% fib at 1.4024 sits above
A break of the lower-highs line from the London high invalidates the downtrend read
Canada Retail Sales (12:30 UTC Fri) and US flash PMIs (13:45 UTC Fri) could materially shift this read
Lower highs off the 1.4044 London high; NY broke the London low, base forming at 1.4004.
Oil-driven CAD strength extended the slide during NY hours. Price broke the London low at 1.4013 and has based at the 1.4004 session low, just above the 1.4000 round number. That low has held four tests into late NY. RSI(14) is recovering to 39, with price still capped under EMA20.
Support: 1.4004, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4013, 1.4019, 1.4044
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.4013 London low and the 1.4019 fib 38.2 would mark the first higher high since the 1.4044 London high
Failure to hold the 1.4004 session low and the 1.4000 round number resumes the lower-low sequence
Canada Retail Sales and US flash PMIs (Fri 12:30–13:45 UTC) and overnight oil headlines could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the London high; NY broke the London low and is basing at 1.4004.
Oil-driven CAD strength took NY through the 1.4013 London low, extending the slide to a 1.4004 NY low, the lowest since Sept 21. Price has flat-lined there through late NY hours with the 1.4000 round number just below. A lower-highs line from the 1.4044 London high capped every NY bounce, and RSI(14) at 31 sits near but not in oversold territory.
Support: 1.40036, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40134, 1.40236, 1.40436
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4000 round number extends the lower-low chain from the 1.4004 NY low
Reclaim of the 1.4013 London low and the lower-highs line brings the 50% fib of the 1.4044–1.4004 drop at 1.4024 into view
A move back through the 1.4044 London high would neutralise the intraday downtrend read
Canada Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and US PMIs (13:45 UTC) on Friday could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4044; NY broke the London range, now tight base at lows.
The NY session broke the 1.4022–1.4044 London range low and cut through the 1.4013 London low to a 1.4004 session low as oil-driven CAD strength resumed. Price has since held a 4-pip base just above the 1.4000 round number late in NY, with RSI(14) recovering to 35 and the descending highs from the 1.4044 London high still intact.
Support: 1.40036, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40134, 1.4022, 1.40436
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4000 round number extends the lower-low chain from the session low
Reclaim of the 1.4013 London low, then the 1.4022 range break level (50% fib), would stall the NY leg
Crude and Middle East headlines remain the main CAD driver into Asia
Fri Canada Retail Sales 12:30 UTC and US PMIs 13:45 UTC are the next scheduled risk
Lower highs from 1.4044; flat base at 1.4004 late NY.
Oil-driven CAD demand pushed the pair through the London low at 1.4013 during NY hours. Three tests of the 1.4004 session low have held just above the 1.4000 psych level after London close, with RSI(14) near 29. The lower-high sequence from the 1.4044 London peak keeps the descending trendline intact.
Support: 1.40036, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40134, 1.40236, 1.40356
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4000 psych level extends the six-day slide to fresh lows
Recovery above the 1.4013 London low and the 50% fib at 1.4024 points to a deeper retracement of the NY leg
A break of the descending trendline and the 1.4036 lower high negates the intraday downtrend read
Friday's Canada Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and US PMIs (13:45 UTC) are the next scheduled risk for this read
Lower highs and lows since the London high; Asian range broken lower in NY, late-NY base above the round number.
After topping at the 1.4044 london high, the pair was hit by a 14:15 UTC drop from 1.4036 and NY broke the asian low at 1.4013, extending to a session low of 1.4004 as oil-backed CAD demand persisted. Late NY is basing just above the 1.4000 round number with RSI(14) near 29 and ATR compressed to about 5.6 pips.
Support: 1.40036, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40134, 1.40234, 1.40436
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low at 1.4013 would turn the NY move into a false break of the Asian range
Failure to hold the session low and the 1.4000 round number extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery through the 61.8% fib of the NY sell-off at 1.4023 negates the breakdown and reopens the 1.4044 london high
Canada Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and US flash PMIs (13:45 UTC) on Friday could materially shift this read
18:31 UTC
Downtrend, stretched into lows · RSI 24 · price 1.40046
Lower highs since Asia; London low broken in NY, basing above 1.4000.
USDCAD has printed steady lower highs since the Asian session. NY hours broke the 1.4022 breakdown level and then the 1.4013 London low as oil-driven CAD strength extended. Price is now flat at a 1.4004 session low just above the 1.4000 round number after London close, with RSI(14) near 24 and ATR around 5.6 pips.
Support: 1.40036, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40134, 1.40222, 1.40436
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.4013 london low would mark the NY break as a false break
Recovery above the 1.4022 breakdown level, near the 38.2–50% of the NY leg fib, stalls the lower-low chain
The lower-highs trendline from the 1.4044 london high runs near 1.4031 and caps any rebound until it is broken
Sustained trade below the 1.4000 round number and the 1.4004 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Canada Retail Sales and US flash PMIs on Friday (12:30–13:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 1.4044 London high, London low broken.
Oil-driven CAD strength pushed a late-NY slide through the London low at 1.4013 to a session low at 1.4004, extending the lower-high sequence from the 1.4044 London high. RSI(14) sits near 27 as bars compress just above the 1.4000 round number.
Support: 1.40036, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40134, 1.40237, 1.40436
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4000 round number extends the lower-low chain
Reclaim of the 1.4013 London low would mark the break as a false break
Rebound into the 1.4024 NY low, the 50% fib of the London-high selloff, is the first test of the lower-high trendline
Oil headlines (Saudi/Russia infrastructure, US-Iran talks) are the main intraday CAD driver with no calendar risk in the next 8h
18:11 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows late NY · RSI 27 · price 1.40053
Lower highs from London high, London low broken.
USDCAD broke below the London low at 1.4013 after London close and printed a session low at 1.4004, with oil-backed CAD strength extending the six-day slide. A descending trendline of lower highs from the London high at 1.4044 has capped every NY rebound. Price is pinned just above the 1.4000 round number, with RSI(14) near 27.
Support: 1.40036, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40134, 1.40236, 1.40436
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4000 round number extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.4013 london low neutralises the breakdown; fib 50% at 1.4024 is the next reference
Break of the lower-highs trendline, near 1.4031, invalidates the read
Oil headlines remain the main CAD driver into Friday's Canada Retail Sales and US flash PMIs
17:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 26 · price 1.40056
Lower highs from the London high, London low broken in late NY.
Each NY bounce was capped on a lower-highs line from the 1.4044 London high, with the NY high at 1.4036. Late NY then broke the 1.4013 London low and set a session low at 1.4004, just above the 1.4000 round number. Crude-backed CAD is outweighing the USD rebound on the claims beat; RSI(14) near 26 is stretched but not extreme.
Support: 1.40037, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40134, 1.40356, 1.40436
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4000 round number extends the lower-low sequence below the session low
An M15 close back above the 1.4013 london low puts price back inside the London range
A break above the lower-highs line and the 1.4036 ny high invalidates the downtrend read
Oil and Middle East headlines remain CAD's main driver and could jolt the pair outside scheduled data
17:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, fresh lows late NY · RSI 28 · price 1.40067
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4044 London high; London low broken.
The London rebound stalled at 1.4044 under the Asian range high. NY then built a lower-high chain, the latest lower high at 1.4022, and broke the 1.4013 London low to a session low at 1.4006. Oil-backed CAD is extending the six-day slide, and price is now sitting just above the 1.4000 round number with RSI(14) near 28.
Support: 1.40055, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40129, 1.40221, 1.40436
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4013 London low would mark the break as a false break
Sustained trade below the 1.4000 round number extends the lower-low chain
Close above the 1.4022 lower high and the descending trendline from the London high would break the NY sequence. The 50% retrace of the NY leg sits near 1.4025
Fri 12:30 UTC Canada Retail Sales and 13:45 UTC US PMIs, plus oil headlines, could materially shift this read
17:16 UTC
Downtrend, fresh session low late NY · RSI 29 · price 1.40098
Lower highs since London high; London low broken.
USDCAD broke the London low at 1.4013 in the second half of NY and printed a fresh session low near 1.4009, with oil-driven CAD strength outweighing the claims-led USD bounce. RSI(14) sits near 29. NY rallies have formed lower highs off the 1.4044 London high, with the 1.4022 NY pivot now overhead and the 1.4000 round number just below.
Support: 1.40094, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40134, 1.40222, 1.40436
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.4013 london low would mark the break as a false break
Acceptance below the 1.4000 round number extends the lower-low sequence from the session low
An M15 close above the ny lower highs line near 1.4035 invalidates the lower-high read
Oil and Middle East headlines remain the main CAD driver into Friday's Canada Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and US PMIs (13:45 UTC)
USDCAD broke the 1.4022–1.4039 NY range lower around London close and is back at the 1.4013 session low from London open. Oil-driven CAD strength is outpacing the USD bounce on firm claims. Lower highs off the 1.4044 London high are intact, and RSI(14) sits near 28.
Support: 1.4013, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4022, 1.4044
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.4022 NY range low invalidates the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 1.4013 session low exposes the 1.4000 round number
A break of the lower-highs trendline, now near 1.4033, would end the intraday downtrend sequence
Crude and Middle East headlines remain the main CAD driver into the Asia session
Lower highs and lower lows through NY, price back near the London low.
The London rally from the 1.4013 London low to the 1.4044 London high stalled at 11:00 UTC. NY printed a run of lower highs, each rejected on the descending trendline, and has unwound most of that move as oil-driven CAD strength outweighs the USD rebound. Price sits at 1.4020 after London close, around the 78.6% retrace of the London rally, with the 1.4016 NY low just below.
Support: 1.4016, 1.4013, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4036, 1.4044
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4036 lower high breaks the NY trendline and reopens the 1.4044 London high
Failure to hold the 1.4013 London low marks a fresh lower low and exposes the 1.4000 round number
Oil headlines (Saudi/Russia strikes, US-Iran talks) remain CAD's main swing factor into the Asia session
Canada Retail Sales and US PMIs Fri 12:30–14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
16:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 36 · price 1.40167
NY range 1.4024–1.4039 broken lower, testing day low.
Mid-NY, USDCAD has broken below the 1.4024 NY low and is pressing the 1.4013 day low. The 1.4044 London high started a lower-high sequence along a falling trendline, with oil-driven CAD demand outweighing the post-claims USD bounce. RSI(14) is near 36, so momentum is not stretched.
Support: 1.40134, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40237, 1.40387, 1.40436
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4013 day low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4000 round number
Recovery back above the 1.4024 NY low returns price to the NY range and negates the break
Falling trendline near 1.4034 and the 1.4039 lower high cap the sequence; a close above both breaks the lower-high chain
Canada Retail Sales and US PMIs on Fri from 12:30 UTC are the next scheduled risk for this read
16:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 36 · price 1.4020
London's rebound from the 1.4013 London low stalled at the 1.4044 London high. NY hours have printed lower highs along a descending trendline, and a late-NY rejection at the line pushed price back below the Asian low at 1.4030 to a session low near 1.4020, the 78.6% retrace of that London move. Oil-driven CAD strength keeps the pair pinned near its six-day lows, with RSI(14) at 36 and not stretched.
Support: 1.4020, 1.40134, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4030, 1.40436
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4020 session low exposes the 1.4013 London low, then the 1.4000 round number
A close back above the 1.4030 Asian low and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Crude headlines (Saudi/Russia strikes, US-Iran talks) remain the main CAD driver into the Asia session
Canada Retail Sales and US PMIs Friday 12:30–13:45 UTC could reset the intraday structure
Lower highs from 1.4044, NY range floor broken at 1.4024.
Oil-backed CAD strength pressed USDCAD to a fresh ny low at 1.4020 late in the London-NY transition, breaking the NY range floor at 1.4024. Lower highs from the 1.4044 london high capped each bounce, and the post-claims USD lift stalled under the 1.4039 ny high. The 1.4013 london low and the 1.4000 round number sit just below.
Support: 1.4020, 1.4013, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4039, 1.4044, 1.4048
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4039 ny high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4013 london low exposes the 1.4000 round number
Recovery through the 1.4048 asian high would negate the intraday downtrend read
Crude headlines (Saudi/Russian infrastructure strikes, US-Iran talks) remain the main swing factor for CAD
15:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 41 · price 1.40252
Lower-high/lower-low chain off 1.4044 London high.
London open broke below the Asian range to a 1.4013 london low as oil lifted CAD, and the USD rebound off three-week lows carried price to a 1.4044 london high by 11:00 UTC. Since then, NY session has printed four lower highs along a descending trendline and a fresh ny low at 1.4022, leaving price on the 61.8% retracement of the London rebound.
Support: 1.40222, 1.40134, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40285, 1.40356, 1.40436
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 50% fib at 1.4029 and the trendline near 1.4035 breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.4022 ny low exposes the 1.4013 london low and the 1.4000 round number
Reclaim of the 1.4044 london high would put price back inside the Asian range
Crude headlines on Saudi/Russian supply attacks remain the main intraday CAD driver ahead of Friday's Canada Retail Sales and US flash PMIs
15:31 UTC
Sideways, London rebound stalled · RSI 51 · price 1.40336
1.4024–1.4044 range since late London, lower highs under 1.4044.
USDCAD is chopping in a 1.4024–1.4044 range through NY hours after the oil-driven dip to the 1.4013 London low reversed as USD bounced off three-week lows. The NY low at 1.4024 held at the 61.8% fib of the London rally, with rejection at the 1.4044 London high capping every push since. RSI(14) is flat near 51, and price is pinned to EMA20.
Support: 1.40237, 1.40134, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40436, 1.40489
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4024 NY low exposes the 1.4013 London low and the 1.4000 round number
Close above the 1.4044 London high reopens the 1.4049 Asian high
Fresh crude spikes on Middle East supply headlines could break the range lower via CAD
15:16 UTC
Intraday range, lower highs since London · RSI 46 · price 1.40304
NY compressing 1.4024–1.4044 after London false break.
The oil-driven CAD bid took early London through the Asian range low to 1.4013 (london low). That move reversed into a USD rebound to the 1.4044 london high, but the Asian high at 1.4048 was not reached. Mid-NY session, price is sitting just under flat EMAs. Lower highs at 1.4044, 1.4039 and 1.4038 are pressing on demand at the 50–61.8% London leg fib, where the 1.4024 ny low sits.
Support: 1.4024, 1.4013, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4038, 1.4044, 1.4048
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4024 ny low breaks the London leg fib and exposes the 1.4013 london low, then the 1.4000 round number
M15 close above the lower highs trendline and the 1.4044 london high reopens the 1.4048 asian high
Crude and Middle East headlines are the main CAD driver and could break the compression
15:04 UTC
Intraday range after London low, no clear direction · RSI 47 · price 1.4033
NY chop 1.4024–1.4044 with lower highs, inside Asian range.
Oil-driven CAD strength pushed London below the Asian low to a 1.4013 london low before the USD rebound after the claims beat lifted price back to a 1.4044 session high. Since then the NY session has chopped between the 1.4024 ny low and that high, printing lower highs, with price flat at EMA20 and RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 1.4024, 1.4013, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4044, 1.4048
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4024 ny low reopens the 1.4013 london low and the 1.4000 round number
Close above the 1.4044 session high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 1.4048 asian high into play
Oil and Middle East headlines remain the main CAD driver; a crude spike could shift this read
Canada Retail Sales and US PMIs on Friday at 12:30–13:45 UTC are the next scheduled event risk
14:47 UTC
Sideways after London low, lower highs in NY · RSI 51 · price 1.40314
NY range 1.4024–1.4039 inside London rebound, capped by lower highs.
Crude-driven CAD demand took London through the Asian range low to a day low at 1.4013. Price then rebounded to the london high at 1.4044 and was rejected below the asian high at 1.4048. Since the claims beat, NY has chopped between the ny low at 1.4024, which held the 61.8% fib, and a run of lower ny highs near 1.4038, with price pinned to ema20 around 1.4031 and RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 1.4024, 1.4013, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4038, 1.4044, 1.4048
What it said to watch
M15 close above the lower highs line and the 1.4044 london high would put the 1.4048 asian high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.4024 ny low exposes the 1.4013 day low and the 1.4000 round number
Oil and Middle East headlines remain the main intraday CAD driver and could break the NY range
London open broke below the Asian range to the 1.4013 london low on the oil-led CAD bid. A late-London rebound to the 1.4044 london high has been pared in NY to a ~62% retracement at the 1.4024 ny low. Lower highs at 1.4044 and 1.4039 against higher lows above 1.4013 leave a contracting range, with price just under EMA20 and RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 1.40237, 1.40134
Resistance: 1.40387, 1.40436
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4039 lower high and 1.4044 london high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4024 ny low exposes the 1.4013 london low and the rebound's full retracement
Crude headlines (Saudi/Russian infrastructure strikes, US-Iran talks) remain the main intraday driver for CAD
14:17 UTC
Downtrend, London rebound fading · RSI 46 · price 1.40281
Lower highs off 1.4044, price back below Asian low.
The oil-driven CAD bid pushed USDCAD below the Asian low to a 1.4013 London low. A rebound to the 1.4044 London high then met rejection twice. NY has since printed a lower high at 1.4039 and dipped to a 1.4024 NY low near the 61.8% of the London rebound fib, with price now just under the 1.4030 Asian low and below EMA20/50, RSI(14) around 46.
Support: 1.4024, 1.4013, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4030, 1.4039, 1.4044
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4024 ny low exposes the 1.4013 london low, then the 1.4000 round number
Close above the 1.4039 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 1.4044 london high
Holding back above the 1.4030 asian low would put price back inside the Asian range
Crude headlines (Saudi/Russian infrastructure, US-Iran talks) remain the main intraday CAD driver
14:02 UTC
Intraday rebound off London low, stalling · RSI 54 · price 1.40328
Compressing 1.4028–1.4039 below the 1.4044 rally high.
London broke below the Asian low and swept down to the 1.4013 London low, but the break failed and price recovered to a 1.4044 rally high before NY. Since the claims beat and hot Canadian IPPI, NY has compressed between the 1.4028 NY low (50% fib) and the 1.4039 NY high. Price sits at the 38.2% retrace with RSI(14) neutral near 54 and ATR(14) about 7 pips.
Support: 1.40285, 1.40134, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40387, 1.40436, 1.40478
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4028 NY low and 50% fib exposes the 1.4013 London low, then the 1.4000 psych level
Close above the 1.4044 rally high reopens the 1.4048 Asian high
Oil and Middle East headlines are the main CAD driver into the London-NY transition
Fri 12:30 UTC Canada Retail Sales and US PMIs could reset the intraday range
13:46 UTC
Rebound off London low, stalling below session high · RSI 59 · price 1.40385
Higher lows from 1.4013; NY range 1.4028–1.4044 inside the Asian range.
London's push lower stopped at 1.4013, just above 1.4000 psych, as oil-driven CAD demand faded. Price then rebounded to a 1.4044 session high, with a rejection just below the 1.4048 Asian high. Two NY pullbacks, including through the 12:30 UTC IPPI/claims releases, held a higher low at 1.4028, the 50% retrace of the rebound.
Support: 1.40285, 1.40134, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40436, 1.40478
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4048 asian high takes price out of the Asian range and invalidates the range read
Failure to hold the 1.4028 higher low reopens the 1.4013 london low and 1.4000 psych
Oil and Middle East headlines remain the main CAD swing factor intraday
13:31 UTC
Intraday rebound off London low, stalling below 1.4044 · RSI 54 · price 1.40323
Higher low at 1.4028 inside a 1.4028–1.4044 band after a double bottom at 1.4013.
Oil-led CAD strength pushed the pair from the Asian range to a 1.4013 London low. That low was tested twice before a rebound to the 1.4044 London high into the London-NY transition. Since the hot 12:30 UTC Canadian producer-price data, dips have held the 50% retrace near 1.4028 twice, leaving a higher low capped by the 1.4038 NY open high.
Support: 1.40285, 1.40134, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40379, 1.40436, 1.40478
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4028 higher low breaks the rebound structure and exposes the 1.4013 london low
Close above the 1.4044 london high reopens the 1.4048 asia high, top of the overnight range
Loss of 1.4013 brings the 1.4000 psych level into play, the CAD-side test flagged in the digest
Oil and Hormuz headlines remain the main intraday driver for CAD with no scheduled data in the next 8h
13:16 UTC
London rebound fading after six-day slide · RSI 56 · price 1.40314
Lower high at 1.4038 after 1.4044 peak, retesting 50% retrace.
London's break below the Asian range to the 1.4013 session low failed. The rebound to the 1.4044 session high stalled under the Asian high. In the first hour of NY, price set a lower high at 1.4038 and is now retesting the 1.4028 claims low. That level is the 50% retrace of the rebound, with oil-driven CAD demand still in the background.
Support: 1.40285, 1.40229, 1.40134
Resistance: 1.40379, 1.40436, 1.40478
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4028 claims low exposes the 61.8% retrace near 1.4025 and the 1.4023 asian low
Loss of the 1.4013 session low would resume the six-day slide toward the 1.4000 handle
Reclaim of the 1.4038 lower high reopens the 1.4044 session high and 1.4048 asian high
Gulf/oil headlines can move CAD intraday; Canada Retail Sales and US PMIs on Fri are the next scheduled risk
Double bottom at london low, higher low at 50% fib, capped below asian high.
London extended the oil-driven CAD bid below the Asian range to a london low at 1.4013. A retest at 1.4015 held, and the bounce stalled at a 1.4044 session high just under the 1.4048 asian high. The 12:00 pullback low at 1.4029 sits on the 50% fib of that rebound, and the beat in jobless claims (194K vs 200K) has barely moved price early in the NY session.
Support: 1.40288, 1.40134
Resistance: 1.40436, 1.40478
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4029 pullback low breaks the higher-low sequence and puts the 1.4013 london low back in play
Close above the 1.4044 session high and the 1.4048 asian high returns price to the Asian range
Gulf and crude headlines during NY hours are the main swing factor for CAD
Higher low at 1.4029 after London low 1.4013; range 1.4029–1.4044.
After the oil-led CAD bid pushed the pair to a London low at 1.4013, a double bottom with 1.4015 sparked a rebound. It was rejected at the 1.4044 session high, just under the Asian high. The pullback held the 1.4029 swing low, the 50% fib, for a higher low into the London-NY transition, and the 12:30 UTC claims bar barely extended range, with RSI(14) near 65.
Support: 1.40288, 1.40134
Resistance: 1.40436, 1.40489, 1.40816
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4044 session high reopens the 1.4049 Asian high and the 1.4082 prior high from Wednesday's NY session
Failure to hold the 1.4029 swing low and higher-low line exposes the 1.4013 London low
Gulf/oil headlines during NY hours remain the main swing factor for CAD and could reset this read
Higher lows since London low, capped under fib zone.
Early London undercut the asian low at 1.4018, printing a 1.4013 london low on the oil-driven CAD bid, then reversed. The recovery built higher lows to a 1.4044 session high near the 38.2% fib of the 1.4082–1.4013 drop, and the pullback held a 1.4029 higher low along rising support as the NY session opens.
Support: 1.4029, 1.4018, 1.40134
Resistance: 1.40436, 1.40489, 1.40816
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4029 higher low and rising support breaks the recovery structure and reopens the 1.4013 london low
1.4044 session high to 1.4049 asian high (50% fib) is the zone to watch for rejection or break; acceptance above exposes the 1.4082 prior high
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) are printing on the current bar; a print above ~215K would add to USD softness and could reverse this recovery
Gulf supply and oil headlines remain the swing factor for CAD intraday
London based twice at the 1.4013 session low and broke the 1.4029 neckline, but the rebound was rejected at the 1.4044 London high, just under the 1.4048 Asian high, as firm oil keeps the six-day CAD bid intact. The pullback is now retesting the neckline at the 50% fib, with rising support from the 09:30 low underneath, price sitting on EMA20/50 and RSI(14) back to ~53 into the London-NY transition.
Support: 1.4029, 1.4013, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4044, 1.4048, 1.4082
What it said to watch
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, inside the next bar, could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 1.4029 neckline and rising support negates the double bottom and reopens the 1.4013 session low, then the 1.4000 round number
A close above the 1.4044 London high and 1.4048 Asian high exposes the 1.4082 prior high
Double bottom at 1.4013 lows, bounce rejected below Asian high.
After the oil-driven slide through Asia, USDCAD formed a double bottom at 1.4013–1.4015 in early London. It then rallied 30 pips to a 1.4044 session high, where it was rejected just under the 1.4048 Asian high. Price is easing back toward the 38.2% fib near 1.4032 into the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) at 56 and ATR around 5.5 pips.
Support: 1.4032, 1.40134, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40436, 1.40478
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) lands within the next two bars and could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 1.4048 Asian high breaks the overnight range top; a second failure below the 1.4044 session high reinforces the rejection
Failure to hold the 38.2% fib at 1.4032 exposes the 50% level near 1.4029 and the 1.4013 double bottom, with the 1.4000 psych level below
Double bottom at 1.4013 lifted price into a retest of the broken Asian range low.
Price slid out of the Asian range and set a London low at 1.4013. CAD stayed firm on the oil spike. A double bottom there, with a second low at 1.4015, fuelled a rebound through the 1.4031 breakout level that stalled at a 1.4044 session high, a retest of the old Asian floor. Rejection there has RSI(14) easing to ~58 ahead of NY.
Support: 1.4031, 1.4013, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4044, 1.4049
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, within the hour, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.4044 session high reclaims the Asian range and exposes the 1.4049 asian high
Failure to hold the 1.4031 breakout (38.2% of the rebound fib) brings the 1.4013 double btm back into play
A break of the double btm leaves the 1.4000 round number as the next reference
11:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, sharp rebound off London low · RSI 64 · price 1.40397
Double bottom at 1.4013-1.4015, higher lows since 09:30 UTC, back inside Asian range.
London extended the oil-driven CAD bid through the 1.4023 Asian low to a 1.4013 London low. The double bottom there held, and the London rebound cleared the 1.4030 swing high and tagged a 1.4044 session high late in the session. Price now sits back inside the Asian range just under the 1.4048 Asian high, with RSI(14) near 64.
Support: 1.4030, 1.40229, 1.40134
Resistance: 1.40436, 1.40478
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) lands near the NY open and could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.4048 Asian high takes price out of the Asian range
Failure to hold the 1.4030 swing high reopens the 1.4023 Asian low
Break below the 1.4013 London low negates the double bottom and exposes the 1.4000 handle
Lower highs from 1.4082 broken by impulse off 1.4013; testing Asian high.
Oil-backed CAD strength carried USDCAD to a 1.4013 London low below the Asian range. Late London then reversed hard, clearing the 1.4032 break level and the descending trendline from yesterday's 1.4082 high. Price is now pressing the 1.4048 Asian high, which lines up with the 50% fib of the 24h decline, with RSI(14) near 68.
Support: 1.4032, 1.4013, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4048, 1.4056, 1.4082
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, ahead of the NY open, could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 1.4048 Asian high opens the 61.8% fib at 1.4056, then the 1.4082 prior high
Rejection at the Asian high followed by a slip back below the 1.4032 break level re-exposes the 1.4013 London low and 1.4000 psych
11:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, London rebound in progress · RSI 63 · price 1.40321
Double bottom at London low, higher lows above 1.4015.
After the oil-driven slide to a 1.40134 London low, a double bottom with 1.40146 completed on the push through the 1.40288 neckline. Price now sits just under the fib 61.8 of the Asian-session drop at 1.40347, with the broken Asian low at 1.40406 overhead and a rising support line under the London higher lows. RSI(14) is near 63 and ATR(14) is about 5.5 pips.
Support: 1.40288, 1.40134, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40347, 1.40406
What it said to watch
Close above the fib 61.8 at 1.40347 opens the path to the Asian low at 1.40406
Slip back below the 1.40288 neckline and the rising support line negates the double bottom
Failure at the London low of 1.40134 resumes the downtrend toward the 1.4000 round number
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, early in NY hours, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4082; London base 1.4013–1.4021, falling trendline broken.
Firmer crude extended the CAD bid through Asia, and London open printed a session low at 1.4013 before an 08:00 UTC spike to the 1.4029 london high was rejected. A 1.4015–1.4021 consolidation followed; the 10:00 UTC bar closed above that range top and the falling trendline from the 1.4048 asian high. Price is now testing 1.4029, the 38.2% fib of the Asian-high-to-London-low leg, with ema50 at 1.4030 and RSI(14) back near 50.
Support: 1.40211, 1.40134, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40288, 1.40383, 1.40478
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4029 london high and 1.4030 ema50 breaks the lower-high chain; the 1.4038 lower high is the next reference
A second rejection at 1.4029 and a close back below the 1.4021 range top reopens the 1.4013 session low
Failure to hold 1.4013 exposes the 1.4000 round number
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) and oil/Hormuz headlines could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4082; tight London range 1.4013–1.4029.
The slide from yesterday's 1.4082 NY high extended through Asia and into London open, printing a 1.4013 session low as oil-driven CAD demand persisted. The 08:00 UTC spike to 1.4029 met rejection, and price has since compressed in a 1.4015–1.4021 band just under EMA20. The falling highs line from the 1.4048 Asian high is intact.
Support: 1.40134, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40288, 1.40478
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.4029 rejection high and the falling highs line breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4013 session low exposes the 1.4000 round number
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Reclaim of the 1.4048 Asian high would negate the overnight breakdown
09:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 42 · price 1.40192
Lower highs from the Asian session; London broke the Asian low, now basing above 1.4013.
London broke the 1.4030 Asian low and extended to a 1.4013 London low as oil-led CAD strength and soft US yields pressed the pair. The 08:00 UTC spike to 1.4029 was rejected at the broken Asian low, and price has since compressed in a 1.4013–1.4021 band below EMA20, with RSI(14) at 42 and lower highs intact.
Support: 1.40134, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40295, 1.40478
What it said to watch
Break below the 1.4013 London low opens the 1.4000 round number
Close above the 1.4029 Asian low breaks the lower highs sequence; the 1.4048 Asian high sits above
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
09:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing near lows · RSI 39 · price 1.40185
Lower highs below a descending trendline; tight consolidation above the London session low.
Mid-London, the pair is consolidating in a 1.4015–1.4021 band. London open extended the Asian slide to a 1.40134 session low, and the 08:00 UTC rejection at the 1.40288 spike high kept the lower-high chain under the descending trendline intact. Oil-led CAD strength and softer US yields frame the drift, with RSI(14) near 39 and not stretched.
Support: 1.40134, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40288, 1.40383
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.40134 session low resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4000 round number
An M15 close above the 1.40288 spike high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain; the 1.40383 swing high is the next reference
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Asian range high; tight base 1.4013–1.4021.
Price broke out of the Asian range lower, falling from the 1.4048 asian high. London extended the six-day slide to a 1.4013 session low on oil-driven CAD strength and a soft dollar. The 08:00 UTC pop to 1.4029 met rejection at the descending trendline and fib 38.2%; price is compressing just under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.4013, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4029, 1.4038, 1.4048
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4029 rejection high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain, opening the 1.4038 swing high
Failure to hold the 1.4013 session low exposes the 1.4000 round number
Only a recovery through the 1.4048 asian high would undo the intraday downtrend read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could shift the USD leg into the NY session
Lower-high chain since Asia, Asian range broken lower, tight base above 1.4013.
USDCAD slipped out of the Asian range from 02:15 UTC and extended at London open to a london low of 1.4013, below the 1.4025 one-month low cited in the digest, with firm oil keeping CAD supported against a softer dollar. The 08:00 UTC bounce high at 1.4029 stalled between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the slide. Price is now compressing in a 1.4015–1.4020 band, with RSI(14) near 34 and the lower-high trendline from the 1.4038 swing high still intact.
Support: 1.40134, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40288, 1.40383
What it said to watch
Break below the 1.4013 london low exposes the 1.4000 psych figure
M15 close above the 1.4029 bounce high and fib 50% (~1.4031) breaks the lower-high trendline
Reclaim of the 1.4038 swing high would void the lower-high sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
LH/LL chain from Asian high; London bounce capped at 1.40288.
Stepwise selling from the 1.40478 Asian high carried into London, printing a 1.40134 session low as firm oil keeps CAD bid. The 08:00 UTC bounce was rejected at 1.40288, just below the 50% fib of that move, and price is back near the lows with RSI(14) around 34.
Support: 1.40134, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40288, 1.40347, 1.40478
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.40288 london high breaks the descending highs; 61.8% fib at 1.40347 sits above
Failure to hold the 1.40134 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.4000 psych
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, early in the NY session, could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower in London; bounce rejected at broken Asian low.
London open broke the Asian range low at 1.4023 and printed a session low of 1.4013, extending the six-session slide as oil keeps CAD firm. The 08:00 UTC pop to 1.4029 was a rejection at the broken Asian low and the fib 38.2–50% zone, keeping lower highs off the 1.4048 Asian high intact; RSI(14) near 38, mid-London.
Support: 1.40134, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40229, 1.40288, 1.40478
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4029 rejection high reopens the Asian range toward the 1.4048 Asian high
Failure to hold the 1.4013 session low exposes the 1.4000 round number
Close back inside the Asian range above the 1.4023 Asian low would undercut the range-break read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read in the first hour of NY
08:16 UTC
Downtrend, short-covering bounce early London · RSI 43 · price 1.40258
Lower highs from the Asian high, London low swept the Asian low and price reclaimed it.
Asian-session lower highs from the 1.4048 asian high carried into London, where the open broke the 1.4023 asian low to a 1.4013 session low as oil-backed CAD extended its six-day run. The 08:00 bar reclaimed the asian low and capped at a 1.4029 bounce high. Price sits near the 38.2% retrace of the asian high to session low drop, just under EMA20, with the fib 61.8 at 1.4035 above.
Support: 1.40229, 1.40134
Resistance: 1.40288, 1.40347, 1.40478
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4023 asian low reopens the 1.4013 session low; an M15 close below it confirms a fresh lower-low
M15 close above the 1.4035 fib 61.8 breaks the lower-high sequence from the 1.4048 asian high
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
WTI and Hormuz headlines remain the main CAD driver intraday
Lower highs and lower lows since the 03:45 UTC swing high; London broke the Asian low.
London extended the overnight slide, breaking the Asian low near 1.4030 and printing a session low at 1.4013 as oil-backed CAD strength pushed the pair through the one-month-low zone. The first bounce stalled at the 1.4020 bounce high under the descending lower-highs line from the 1.4038 swing high. RSI(14) is near 28, oversold, and ATR is about 4 pips.
Support: 1.40134, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40202, 1.4030, 1.40383
What it said to watch
A close back above the asian low at 1.4030, also near the fib 50%, would neutralise the London break
Failure to hold the 1.4013 session low exposes the 1.4000 psych level
A break of the lower-highs line or a close above the 1.4020 bounce high would end the micro lower-high chain
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could shift the USD leg into the NY open
A reclaim of the 1.4038 swing high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Asian range broken lower in early London; descending highs since 1.4038.
Early London extended the overnight slide through the asian low near 1.4030 to a session low at 1.4013. CAD is firm on oil and BoC-hike pricing, and the pair is below the one-month low cited near 1.4025. Lower highs run from the 1.4038 swing high through the overnight drop; RSI(14) is near 31 with only a small bounce off the low.
Support: 1.40134, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4030, 1.40383
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low at 1.4030 would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4013 session low exposes the 1.4000 round number
A close above the 1.4038 swing high breaks the lower-highs sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read in NY hours
LH/LL chain from the Asian high; early London extending to fresh session low.
USDCAD has slid from the 1.40489 Asian high under a descending trendline. Early London cut through the 1.4025–1.4030 one-month-low zone flagged in CAD coverage, on firm oil and BoC-hike pricing, and printed a session low at 1.40134. RSI(14) near 22 is stretched, but bounces have stalled below each prior swing high, the latest at the 1.40265 breakdown bar.
Support: 1.40134, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40265, 1.40383, 1.40489
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.40265 breakdown level would signal the push through the one-month low is failing
Recovery through the 1.40383 swing high breaks the descending trendline and the LH chain
Sustained trade below the 1.40134 session low exposes the 1.4000 psych level
RSI(14) dropping below 20 marks an extreme short-term stretch on this leg
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:16 UTC
Downtrend, RSI stretched · RSI 23 · price 1.40173
Lower highs from 1.4048, Asian range broken lower at London open.
London open broke the Asian low at 1.4023 and printed a session low at 1.4015. That puts price below the 1.4025–1.4030 fib zone as oil-driven CAD strength extends the six-day slide. The lower-high chain from 1.4048 is intact, and RSI(14) near 23 is stretched.
Support: 1.40148, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40229, 1.4029, 1.40382
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4029 fib zone (≈50% of the Asia–London leg) and the lower-highs trendline neutralises the breakdown
Failure to hold the 1.4015 session low exposes the 1.4000 psych level
Recovery above the 1.4038 prior low breaks the lower-high sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain from 1.4082 NY high; 1.4030 one-month low broken in late Asia.
USD/CAD ground lower through Asia in a clean lower-high chain from the 1.4082 NY high. It slipped through the 1.4030 1-month low and printed a session low at 1.4018 into London open, with firm oil and a soft dollar behind CAD strength. RSI(14) near 25 is stretched but not extreme. Price sits below both EMAs, and the Asian high at 1.4048 is well above the market.
Support: 1.40181, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4030, 1.40383, 1.40478
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4030 1-month low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4018 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.4000 psych
Recovery through the 1.4038 swing high and the lower-high trendline breaks the intraday LH/LL chain
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from NY high; Asian range broken lower.
USDCAD has faded steadily from the NY high at 1.4082. Late Asia broke the 1.4042–1.4048 Asian range lower and pushed through the 1.4030 broken low, printing a session low at 1.4023 ahead of London open as firm oil kept CAD bid. RSI(14) near 36 is soft but not stretched, and moves remain compact at roughly 3.6 pips ATR.
Support: 1.40229, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4030, 1.40383, 1.40478
What it said to watch
Close back above the 1.4030 broken low would mark the break as a false break
Reclaim of the 1.4038 swing high and the lower-highs trendline would undo the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4023 session low exposes the 1.4000 psych level
London open could set the session range; Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower; lower-high sequence below 1.4040.
Mid-Asia break below the 1.4041–1.4049 Asian range (asian high 1.4049) has run into a steady lower-high/lower-low sequence. The slide has now slipped through the 1.4030 1-month low to a 1.4023 session low as oil-driven CAD strength extends the six-day slide. RSI(14) near 37 is not stretched, and London open is just ahead.
Support: 1.40229, 1.4020
Resistance: 1.4030, 1.40383, 1.40489
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.4030 1-month low would mark the break as a false break
A move through the 1.4038 swing high would break the lower-highs line and end the sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4023 session low leaves the 1.4020 round number as the next reference
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:16 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower · RSI 35 · price 1.4028
Lower highs since 02:00 UTC; Asian range broken to the downside.
Late in the Asia session, USD/CAD slipped out of its 1.4042–1.4049 Asian range and through the 1.4030 prior low, the one-month-low area. It printed a session low at 1.4025 on a tight chain of lower highs as oil-backed CAD demand extended the six-day slide. RSI(14) sits near 35, not stretched, with London open next.
Support: 1.40248, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4030, 1.40383, 1.40489
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4038 swing high breaks the lower-highs chain
Holding below the 1.4030 prior low confirms the break; reclaiming it marks a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4025 session low opens the 1.4000 psych level
Asian high at 1.4049 caps the upside on any rebound
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the NY-open rejection at 1.4082; Asian range broken lower.
The NY-open spike to 1.4082 was rejected and sold through the afternoon. Late Asia then broke the 1.4042 asia floor as oil-driven CAD demand extended the six-day slide. Price is sitting on the 1.4030 session low, which is also the one-month-low area, after a lower high at 1.4038; RSI(14) is near 26 with ATR around 3.4 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.4030, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4038, 1.4042, 1.4049
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4030 session low extends the downtrend toward the 1.4000 round number
Recovery above the 1.4038 lower high and the 1.4042 asia floor would neutralise the Asian range break
1.4049 asia high lines up with the 38.2% of the NY-high retrace; a move back there would mark a deeper pullback
London open in ~1.5h and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 29 · price 1.40311
Asian range broken lower; price pressing the 1.4030 swing low after a capped bounce.
Asia broke below its 1.4042–1.4048 range at 02:15 UTC and ran to a 1.4030 swing low, the one-month low flagged in the CAD digest, as firmer crude extended the six-day slide. The bounce stalled at the 1.4038 bounce high under a descending line, and price is back on 1.4030 about two hours before London open.
Support: 1.4030, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4038, 1.4042, 1.4048
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4030 swing low confirms a lower-low and puts the 1.4000 psych level in play
Close above the 1.4038 bounce high and the descending line weakens the read; the Asian low at 1.4042 and Asian high at 1.4048 sit above
London open could set the next leg; US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could shift USD tone
Asian range broken lower, tight consolidation under bounce high.
Late Asia session: price broke the Asian low at 1.4041 from 02:15 UTC and tagged a session low at 1.4030, the one-month support flagged as oil-driven CAD strength extends the six-day slide. The bounce high at 1.4038 stalled near the 50% of the Asian drop, and lower highs from yesterday's NY peak at 1.4082 remain intact. RSI(14) is near 33 with ATR(14) at about 3 pips, so the pullback is compressing rather than extending.
Support: 1.40298, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40383, 1.40414, 1.40478
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4030 session low extends the downtrend toward the 1.4000 round number
Reclaim of the 1.4041 Asian low negates the range break; above the 1.4048 Asian high breaks the lower highs sequence
London open in ~2h is the first test of whether the bounce high at 1.4038 holds
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and crude/Hormuz headlines could shift this read
04:31 UTC
Downtrend, late-Asia leg pausing · RSI 36 · price 1.40339
Asian range broken lower; bounce capped at prior London low.
Late in the Asia session, price broke the 1.40414 Asian low and then the 1.40382 London low. It printed a session low at 1.40298, testing the 1.4030 one-month low as firm crude keeps CAD supported. The rebound retraced about half the Asia drop and stalled at 1.40383, retesting the old London low from below, with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 1.40298
Resistance: 1.40383, 1.40414, 1.40486
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.40414 Asian low negates the range break and puts the 1.40486 Asian high back in view.
A close below the 1.40298 session low confirms a lower-low through the 1.4030 one-month low.
Repeated rejection at the 1.40383 London low keeps the retest structure intact.
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read during NY hours.
04:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since NY spike · RSI 38 · price 1.40348
Overnight range broken lower in Asia; bounce capped at prior London low.
Asia broke the 1.4041 broken floor that held from late NY into the Asian session and ran to a 1.4030 session low as firmer crude lifted CAD. The bounce stalled at the 1.4038 london low. RSI(14) is near 38, and highs have stepped lower along the descending trendline from Wednesday's 1.4082 NY high.
Support: 1.4030, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4038, 1.4041, 1.4048
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4041 broken floor and the descending trendline negates the range-break read; the 1.4048 asian high sits above
Failure to hold the 1.4030 session low (one-month low) exposes the 1.4000 round number
London open in ~3h; US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower, small bounce off session low.
Late Asia session: USD/CAD broke below the 1.4041–1.4049 Asian range at 02:15 UTC and tagged a 1.4030 session low, the latest step in a lower-high chain from yesterday's 1.4082 NY high, with firm oil and a soft USD behind the slide. The rebound is stalling at the prior low near 1.4038 (yesterday's London low), and RSI(14) sits near 39.
Support: 1.4030, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4038, 1.40414, 1.40489
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4030 session low extends lower lows toward the 1.4000 round number
Recovery back above the 1.4041 asian low would mark the range break as false, with the 1.4049 asian high above
Descending trendline and the 23.6% fib of the 1.4082–1.4030 drop converge near 1.4042; a close above breaks the lower-high chain
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and crude / US-Iran headlines could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, extending into late Asia · RSI 24 · price 1.40309
Lower highs from the 1.4082 NY high; Asian range broken lower.
Late Asia broke below the 1.4041–1.4049 Asian range and the 1.4038 London low, printing a fresh session low at 1.4030, the one-month low area, as oil-driven CAD demand extended the six-day slide. Lower highs from the 1.4082 NY spike are intact, and RSI(14) near 24 is stretched but not extreme.
Support: 1.40298
Resistance: 1.40382, 1.40414, 1.40489
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4030 session low (month low) extends the lower-low chain
A recovery back above the 1.4038 london low would mark the break as a false break
A close above the lower-high trendline near 1.4044 ends the sequence; the 1.4049 asian high also sits at the 38.2% fib
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lower low in Asia · RSI 29 · price 1.40321
Asian range broken lower, lower highs since the NY high.
After 02:00 UTC, Asia broke below the 1.4041–1.4048 Asian range (asian low to asian high) and through the 1.4038 london low. Price printed 1.4031, just above the 1.4030 1-month low, as oil-backed CAD strength extends the six-day slide. RSI(14) sits near 29, and lower highs from the 1.4082 NY high remain capped by the descending line.
Support: 1.4030, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40382, 1.40414, 1.40478
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.4030 1-month low extends the lower-low sequence, with the 1.4000 round number next
A recovery back above the 1.4038 london low and into the Asian range turns the move into a false break
A close above the 1.4048 asian high and the descending line invalidates the lower-high read
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC Thu and any crude/US-Iran headlines could materially shift this read
03:02 UTC
Downtrend, fresh 24h low in late Asia · RSI 34 · price 1.40352
Lower highs since NY high; Asian range broken lower.
Late Asia broke below the Asian range (asian low 1.4041 to asian high 1.4049) and the prior london low at 1.4038, printing a session low at 1.4034, as oil-driven CAD firmness extends the six-day slide. The 13:30–14:00 UTC spike to 1.4082 has been fully retraced, and a lower-highs trendline from that NY high continues to cap rebounds; price now sits just above the 1.4030 1-month low flagged in the CAD digest.
Support: 1.40336, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.4038, 1.40414, 1.40489
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low at 1.4041 would mark the range break as a false break
Acceptance below the 1.4030 1-month low extends the lower-low sequence beyond the session low
Rebounds into 1.4038 london low / lower-highs trendline near 1.4045 are the area to watch for rejection
London open liquidity and crude/US-Iran headlines can extend or reverse the Asian break; US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC are the next scheduled risk
02:46 UTC
Downtrend, fresh 24h low · RSI 33 · price 1.40381
Lower highs from NY spike, Asian range broken lower.
USD/CAD slipped below the 1.4042 Asian floor late in the Asia session and printed a fresh 24h low at 1.4037, just above the 1.4030 month low. The pair has made lower highs since the NY high at 1.4082 faded, with firm oil and a soft dollar behind the drift. RSI(14) is near 33 and ATR is about 3 pips.
Support: 1.40372, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.4042, 1.40489, 1.40816
What it said to watch
A clean break of the 1.4030 month low extends the lower-low sequence
A recovery back above the 1.4042 Asian floor would mark the break as a false break
An M15 close above the 1.4049 Asian high and the lower-highs line negates the intraday drift
Retracement toward the 50% fib of the NY high-to-24h low leg near 1.4059 is the upper reference
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Down from NY high, flattening in Asia · RSI 45 · price 1.40455
Tight Asian range below NY lower highs.
NY saw a rejection of the 1.4082 ny high and sold back to the lows, with CAD firm on the oil bid and a soft USD. Asia is coiling in a 7-pip range between the 1.4041 asia low, tested four times, and the 1.4049 asia high, with yesterday's 1.4038 london low just beneath.
Support: 1.40414, 1.40382
Resistance: 1.40489, 1.40563, 1.40816
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4038 london low breaks the Asian range lower
M15 close above the 1.4049 asia high opens a retest of the 38.2% fib at 1.4056
Recovery through 1.4082 ny high invalidates the NY sell-off read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalling in Asia · RSI 46 · price 1.40455
Lower highs since the 1.4082 NY high; tight Asian range 1.4041–1.4049.
NY saw a rejection at the 1.4082 NY high, then slid 41 pips to the 1.4041 shelf. Asia is holding a 1.4041–1.4049 range, with the Asian low tested repeatedly and the London low at 1.4038 and the 1.4030 month low just beneath. The firmer oil-driven CAD and the soft USD tone fit the slide, and the bounce has yet to reach the 23.6% fib of that drop.
Support: 1.40415, 1.40382, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.40489, 1.4055, 1.40816
What it said to watch
A break of the 1.4041 Asian low exposes the 1.4038 London low and the 1.4030 month low (50% Fibo, per context)
A move above the 1.4049 Asian high and the 1.4055 NY pivot (23.6% fib zone) would mark a retracement of the NY drop
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could reset the intraday range
Crude headlines (Gulf drone attacks, US-Iran deal) remain the swing factor for CAD
Rejection at the 1.4082 NY high started a run of lower highs, with oil-driven CAD demand extending the six-day slide. Early Asia is holding a tight 1.4041–1.4047 range between the asian low and asian high, just above yesterday's 1.4038 prior low. Price is pressing the descending trendline with RSI(14) near 47.
Support: 1.4041, 1.4038, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.4047, 1.4055, 1.4082
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4047 asian high and the trendline breaks the lower-high sequence, exposing the 1.4055 lower high
Failure to hold the 1.4041 asian low and the 1.4038 prior low exposes the 1.4030 monthly low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, compressing in Asia · RSI 45 · price 1.40449
Lower highs since NY spike; tight Asian range above London low.
NY's spike to the 1.40816 day high was fully rejected and faded into a chain of lower highs, with the 1.4055 ny swing capping near the 38.2% fib of that drop as firm oil and BoC hike odds keep CAD supported. Early Asia is compressing in a 7-pip range between the 1.40414 asian low and 1.40489 asian high, holding above the 1.40382 london low.
Support: 1.40414, 1.40382, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.40489, 1.4055, 1.40816
What it said to watch
Close above 1.40489 asian high breaks the Asian range and puts the 1.4055 ny swing / 38.2% fib in view
Loss of the 1.40382 london low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.4030 month low
Reclaim of the 1.40816 day high invalidates the lower-high sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, compressing in Asia · RSI 42 · price 1.40437
Lower highs from the 1.4082 NY high; tight 1.4041–1.4049 Asian range.
The NY-session rejection at the 1.4082 high fully unwound into the 1.4041 late-NY low, leaving lower highs at 1.4055 and the 1.4049 Asian high. Early Asia is compressing just under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 42, while firm CAD on BoC hike pricing and five-month-high crude keep the London low at 1.4038 and the one-month low at 1.4030 in view.
Support: 1.40406, 1.40382, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.40489, 1.4055, 1.40816
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4041 late-NY low exposes the 1.4038 London low and the 1.4030 one-month low
Close above the 1.4049 Asian high puts the 1.4055 lower high and the 23.6–38.2% NY spike retrace band (1.4050–1.4056) back in play
Only a recovery through the 1.4082 NY high negates the lower-high sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could break the Asian range
01:16 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at lows · RSI 41 · price 1.4042
NY spike fully reversed; tight Asian range at day low.
The NY spike high at 1.4082 was rejected and fully retraced. A run of lower highs, the last at 1.4055, carried price back to the 1.4041 post-NY low, with CAD firm on oil strength and BoC hike pricing. The Asian session is coiling in a ~1-pip-wide band under the 1.4049 Asian high, just above the 1.4038 London low.
Support: 1.4041, 1.4038, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.4049, 1.4055, 1.4082
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4038 London low breaks the day's floor and exposes the 1.4030 one-month low flagged in the CAD digest
Reclaim of the 1.4049 Asian high and then the 1.4055 lower high would undercut the lower-high sequence
Retracement now ~90% of the London low to spike high leg; a hold at the 1.4041 post-NY low keeps the range read intact
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could break the current compression during NY hours
01:03 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into a flat floor · RSI 46 · price 1.4042
Lower highs since NY spike high; tight Asian range on the lows.
The NY spike to the 1.4082 ny high was fully reversed through a run of lower highs, and early Asia is compressing in a 1.4041–1.4050 range just above the 1.4038 london low. CAD stays firm on oil strength and BoC hike pricing, with the 1.4030 1-month low the next reference below.
Support: 1.4041, 1.4038, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.4050, 1.4056, 1.4082
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4038 london low exposes the 1.4030 1-month low flagged in the digest
Recovery above the 1.4050 asian high and 1.4056 swing high (near the 38.2% fib) would break the lower-high sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift the USD leg of this read
Lower highs since NY spike rejection, pressing intraday floor.
London broke below the Asian range and printed a 1.4038 London low. NY then spiked above the Asian high to the 1.4082 NY high, but the move was rejected and has fed a chain of lower highs since, with the 1.4049 lower high and 1.4055 swing high capping. Early Asia is pressing the 1.4041 Asia floor on a compressed ATR near 3 pips, with firm CAD on oil and BoC hike pricing behind the drift.
Support: 1.40415, 1.40382, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.4049, 1.4055, 1.40816
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.4038 London low exposes the 1.4030 month low and 50% Fib support
Close above the 1.4055 swing high breaks the lower-high line and the downtrend read
Repeated holds at the 1.4041 Asia floor leave price coiling below the 1.4049 lower high
38.2% retrace of the NY high-to-low leg sits near 1.4056, aligned with the swing high
US Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC and CAD Retail Sales Fri 12:30 UTC could reset the intraday range
00:31 UTC
Downtrend from NY spike, flat in Asia · RSI 48 · price 1.40437
Lower highs after 1.4082 rejection; tight Asian range near day low.
NY rejected the 1.4082 day high and the NY decline gave back the whole spike toward the 1.4038 day low (London). Asia is consolidating in a 1.4041–1.4049 Asian range below both EMAs, RSI(14) neutral near 48, with CAD firm on oil and BoC hike pricing keeping the pair near the 1.4030 month low.
Support: 1.40406, 1.40382, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.40489, 1.4055, 1.40816
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4038 day low puts the 1.4030 month low in play
Close above the 1.4049 Asian high and 1.4055 ny swing (38.2% of the NY decline) breaks the lower-high trendline
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:16 UTC
Downtrend after NY spike, flattening into consolidation · RSI 44 · price 1.40442
NY high 1.4082 rejected, lower highs into a tight 1.4041–1.4049 band above the London low.
The NY session spike to the 1.4082 ny high was fully faded, with firm CAD on BoC hike pricing and higher oil driving the slide. Since the rollover low at 1.4041, price has compressed in a 1.4041–1.4049 Asian range sitting just above the 1.4038 london low. RSI(14) neutral near 44, ATR about 3 pips.
Support: 1.40406, 1.40382, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.40495, 1.4055, 1.40816
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.4038 london low exposes the 1.4030 1-month low and 50% Fib zone
M15 close above the 1.4049 range top, then the 1.4055 lower high, ends the post-NY fade structure
Reclaim of the 38.2% NY high fib near 1.4056 shifts the read back to range
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst for this read
00:02 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower in thin Asia · RSI 42 · price 1.40417
Lower highs since NY open rejection, pressing session low.
The NY open spike to 1.4082 was fully rejected, and USD/CAD has printed lower highs since. Price now sits on the session low at 1.4041, just above the London low at 1.4038, as firm oil and BoC hike pricing keep CAD supported. Early Asia trade is quiet, with ATR near 3 pips and RSI(14) soft at 42.
Support: 1.40406, 1.40382, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.40495, 1.40611, 1.40816
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the london low at 1.4038 exposes the month low near 1.4030
A close above the 1.4050 lower high breaks the lower-high chain, with the 50% fib of the NY drop at 1.4061 next
NY high at 1.4082 caps the day range; US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled risk