USDCAD has run a sustained multi-week uptrend, breaking out mid-June to fresh 14-month highs near 1.4193 on the BoC-hold versus hawkish-Fed divergence plus soft oil — CAD failed to firm even on yesterday's hot 3.2% CPI print. Price sits well above a rising EM(50), but daily RSI near 84 marks a genuinely stretched, eighth up-day tape. The 1.4130/1.4150 prior-peak band is the first reference on any corrective dip.
Support: 1.4130, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4250, 1.4285
What it said to watch
Daily close below 1.4130 socgen support would mark the first lower-low and break the up-leg
Sustained move above 1.4193 opens 1.4250 then 1.4285
Core PCE Thu Jun 25 is the week's main USD catalyst and could shift this read
RSI near 84 leaves room for a corrective dip on any oil rebound
USDCAD is in a multi-week uptrend, printing an eighth straight up-day into a fresh 14-month high at 1.4193, with price holding well above a rising EMs50 — the swing-trend filter points firmly up. The leg has accelerated on BoC-hold versus hawkish-Fed divergence and soft oil, with the Loonie shrugging off Tuesday's hot Canadian CPI. Daily RSI near the mid-80s flags a stretched tape, the kind of reading that historically precedes a corrective pause.
Support: 1.4150, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4250, 1.4335
What it said to watch
Daily RSI in extreme territory — exhaustion/divergence risk into a corrective dip
Hold of the 1.4130/1.4150 former peak keeps the uptrend structure intact
Close above 1.4193 opens the path toward 1.4250 then 1.4335
US Core PCE Thu and Canada GDP Jun 30 could materially shift this read