Double bottom off 1.4000, pulling back below recovery high.
The multi-day slide from the mid-1.42 area stalled at the 1.4000 psych level, where a double bottom formed and price recovered to a swing high at 1.4111 — soft June Canadian CPI capping CAD strength while firm oil cushions the downside. Momentum has since eased back to 1.4083, with the EMA20 crossing above EMA50 confirming the short-term recovery. ATR(14) is compressing near 19 pips as the pair consolidates below the 1.4100 confluence.
Support: 1.4000, 1.4054
Resistance: 1.4111, 1.4150
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4111 swing high opens 1.4150 range res
Loss of 1.4000 psych resumes the prior downtrend
US flash PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC could shift the USD leg
Lower lows into 1.40, higher-lows building off the base.
The multi-week slide from 1.4247 bottomed near 1.4005 and price has since carved a rounded base, printing higher-lows off the 1.40 psych level. A recovery to 1.4110 stalled and price eased back below the EMA50, holding just above the EMA20. Soft Canadian CPI and the tariff overhang keep pressure on CAD, while firm oil and Fed-BoC divergence leave this two-way sub-1.4100.
Support: 1.4005, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.41154, 1.4150
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4110 swing high opens the path to 1.4150
Failure to hold 1.4000 psych resumes the downtrend toward fresh lows
US flash PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC could shift the USD leg
17:03 UTC
Downtrend, recovering off lows · RSI 52 · price 1.40895
Double bottom near 1.4000, consolidating below EMA50.
USDCAD sold off through the first half of the window from 1.4240 to a 1.4004 base, where dip-buyers defended the 1.4000 psych floor twice to form a double bottom. Price has since recovered to ~1.411 and is now consolidating around 1.409, roughly the 38.2% retrace of the decline, holding above EMA20 but capped under EMA50. Soft June CPI and tariff overhang weigh on CAD while supportive oil offsets, leaving the pair pinned in a 1.4000–1.4110 band.
Support: 1.4000, 1.40036, 1.40465
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4150, 1.4200
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4110 opens the path toward 1.4150 interim res
Failure to hold 1.4000 confirms a fresh lower low
Fri US flash PMIs (13:45 UTC) could shift the USD leg materially
USDCAD declined through the window from the 1.4247 area and carved a base at the 1.4000 psychological floor, with a double bottom near 1.4003-1.4005. Price rebounded to 1.4110 before rolling back to 1.408, now hovering around EMA20 while capped under EMA50 and a descending lower-highs line. Firm oil has repeatedly capped upside sub-1.4100 while soft Canadian CPI and pending tariffs frame the two-way range; ATR(14) has compressed as the pair consolidates.
Support: 1.4056, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4150
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4110 opens the path toward 1.4150 descending resistance
Failure to hold the 1.4000 psych floor confirms a lower-low and resumes the downtrend
US flash PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC is the nearest catalyst that could shift this read
USDCAD has ground lower for three weeks from 1.4247, but the slide stalled at the 1.4000 psych floor with two matched lows carving a double bottom near the 50-day MA. Firm oil and an absorbed tariff/CPI backdrop capped downside, and the corrective bounce reached 1.4110 before fading back to 1.408. ATR(14) sits moderate around 22 pips as price coils between the 1.4000 floor and descending resistance off the early-month highs.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4150
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.4000 confirms a lower-low and invalidates the double-bottom read
Reclaim of 1.4110 needed to extend the corrective bounce toward 1.4150
US flash PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Double-bottom off 1.4000, pulling back below EMA cluster.
USDCAD sold off through July from the mid-1.42s to a 1.4000 double-bottom low, weighed by CAD's cooler CPI and US tariff headlines even as firm oil cushioned the Loonie. Price bounced to 1.4110 before easing back to the 1.407 area, where it now sits just below both EMA20 and EMA50. ATR(14) near 19 pips shows contained volatility as the pair consolidates in the 1.4005-1.4110 band.
Support: 1.4005, 1.4000, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales today 12:30 UTC could shift the read
Loss of the 1.4000 psych floor confirms fresh lower-low
H4 close above 1.4110 swing high opens the path to 1.4150 prior range
09:03 UTC
Downtrend, bounce fading · RSI 48 · price 1.40698
Lower highs off 1.4236; double bottom near 1.4000.
Multi-week downtrend from the early-July high at 1.4236 carved a double bottom near 1.4000/1.4005, the region SocGen flags as the downside pivot. Price bounced to 1.4110 — roughly a 45% retrace of the impulse leg — but has since rolled back below EMA20 as the soft-CPI and tariff CAD-negative narrative offsets firm oil. ATR is compressing versus the sharp mid-window sell-off, leaving a tight consolidation between 1.4000 and 1.4110.
Support: 1.4005, 1.4000, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4185, 1.4238
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales today 12:30 UTC (f/c +1%) could break this consolidation
H4 close below 1.4000 confirms a fresh lower low
H4 close above 1.4110 reaffirms the corrective bounce toward 1.4185
USDCAD sold off from the 1.4240 area to a 1.400 floor as a softening USD (gold at two-week highs) offset the bearish CAD backdrop of soft CPI and fresh tariffs. The 1.400 psychological level held twice, forming a double bottom, and price has since recovered toward 1.4110 before easing back to 1.4064. Momentum is compressing — ATR(14) has narrowed to roughly 20 pips as the bounce stalls under the descending lower-high line.
Support: 1.4005, 1.3991
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4175
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.4000 confirms a lower low beneath the double bottom
Close above 1.4110 swing high opens the path toward 1.4175
Canada Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could shift this read
Multi-week downtrend from 1.4240 has stalled at a 1.4000 base, where demand stepped in twice to form a double bottom. The bounce to 1.4110 faded and price is back at 1.4064 below both EMAs, keeping the lower-high sequence intact. CAD remains pressured by soft June CPI and the Aug-19 US tariff order, though firm oil is cushioning the downside.
Support: 1.4000, 1.4004
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4175
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.4000 confirms a fresh lower low
H4 close above 1.4110 breaks the lower-high sequence
Canada Retail Sales (f/c +1%) today 12:30 UTC could shift this read
Lower highs into a double bottom at 1.4000, recovering.
USDCAD carved a steady sequence of lower highs from 1.4247 before demand stepped in twice around 1.4000 to form a double bottom, helped by firm oil offsetting soft Canadian CPI and the fresh US tariff shock. Price has since recovered off the base to 1.4110 but is stalling under the 1.4100 200-SMA(H4) pivot. ATR(14) has compressed through the base, and EMAs are flattening as the down-move loses momentum.
Support: 1.4054, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.41105
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 close above 1.4110 bounce high extends the recovery toward the lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold 1.4000 confirms a lower-low and breaks the double bottom
H4 has trended lower since the early-window 1.4247 high, printing a clean series of lower highs into a base around the 1.4000 psychological level, where a double bottom formed near 1.4005. Price has since bounced to 1.4110 and is pulling back to 1.4085; the recovery off the lows tracks the soft June Canada CPI that lifted the pair off its one-month low. ATR remains elevated, so the corrective leg still has range.
Support: 1.4000, 1.4005, 1.3970
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4150, 1.4175
What it said to watch
Close above 1.4110 opens the path to the 1.4150/1.4175 resistance band
Failure to hold 1.4000 psych confirms a fresh lower low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC (f/c +1.0% MoM) could shift this read