19:04 UTC
Range-bound, rolling off the range top · RSI 51 · price 1.40057
Multi-quarter range 1.3480–1.4300 since Q2 2025 with rising lows.
USDCAD has been range-bound between the 1.3480 January low and the 1.4300 range top since Q2 2025, with rising lows at 1.3481, 1.3550 and the 1.3732 Aug low. A two-week, roughly 290-pip slide from the range top has returned price to the 1.4000 round number as CAD firmed on oil and BoC-hike pricing. That leaves the pair on the 38.2% retrace of the Jan–Oct advance and just under EMA(20), while the W1 EMA(50) near 1.3928 still sits beneath, so the macro structure is intact. Back-to-back rejections at the 1.4250 June high and the 1.4300 range top cap the upside and outline a potential double top, with the Aug low as its neckline.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3928, 1.3732
Resistance: 1.4140, 1.4250, 1.4300
What it said to watch
- W1 close below the 1.4000 round number and 38.2% retrace exposes the ema50 near 1.3928
- Failure to hold the Aug low at 1.3732 would complete a double top; the rising lows line near 1.3680 sits just beneath
- Recovery above the 1.4140 prior high reopens the 1.4250 June high and the 1.4300 range top
- BoC decision Wed 28 Oct 13:45 UTC (25bp hike to 2.5% is consensus, a hold is the larger surprise) and FOMC at 18:00 UTC the same day could materially shift this read