Daily lower highs since Tuesday; Friday dip below 1.4000 reclaimed.
USDCAD has set a lower high every day since Tuesday's 1.4106 open: the 1.4082 Wed high, then the 1.4044 Thu high and the 1.4018 Fri high. The deepest legs came during NY hours as firm oil and BoC-hike pricing supported CAD. Friday's NY-open drop to a 1.3968 week low around Canada's mixed retail sales was reclaimed within hours, a false break of the 1.4000 round number as late-session bank notes pushed back on an October hike. Price now sits just above EMA(20) near 1.4002 but below EMA(50) near 1.4013, pressing the falling lower-highs line around the 23.6% retracement of the week's decline, with RSI(14) back at a neutral 47.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4018, 1.4044, 1.4082
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4018 Fri high breaks the lower-highs sequence and exposes the 1.4044 Thu high
Loss of the 1.4000 round number with a close below the 1.3968 week low resumes the lower-low sequence
Sunday reopen gap risk on oil and Middle East headlines
BoC decision Wed 28 Oct 13:45 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Tue US Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence come first
19:03 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at 1.4000 · RSI 46 · price 1.4002
Lower highs since Wednesday; Friday break below 1.4000 reclaimed.
USDCAD has slid from Monday's 1.4111 open through a run of lower highs. Wednesday's NY spike to the 1.4082 wed high faded, Thursday's London session pressed it to 1.4013, and the 1.4044 thu high capped the rebound, with CAD firm on oil and BoC-hike bets. Friday's first hour of NY broke the round number and printed a 1.3968 week low around Canadian retail sales, then recovered to 1.4000. Price is now flat on EMA(20) with RSI(14) at 46, near the 23.6% fib of the week's decline and capped by the 1.4015 ny high.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4015, 1.4044, 1.4082
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back below the 1.4000 round number and the 1.3968 week low would confirm the false-break recovery has failed and extend the downtrend
A close above the 1.4015 ny high and the lower-highs trendline puts the 1.4044 thu high in view; clearing it breaks the week's lower-high sequence
Above 1.4044, the 1.4082 wed high is the next swing level overhead
BoC decision Wed 28 Oct 13:45 UTC (25bp hike priced; a hold is the larger surprise) could materially shift this read
Fed decision Wed 28 Oct 18:00 UTC; December-hike signalling versus a no-guidance hold could reprice the USD side
18:03 UTC
Downtrend, NY rebound stalling at 1.4000 · RSI 46 · price 1.39985
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday; Friday's rebound capped below the prior lower high.
USDCAD has printed lower highs since Wednesday's NY spike to 1.4082. The slide ran through Thursday's London session and reached a fresh week low at 1.3968 around Friday's Canadian retail sales, with oil and BoC-hike pricing keeping CAD firm. The US flash PMI beat drove a roughly 47-pip NY rebound that stalled at a 1.4015 lower high near EMA(50), and price is back on the 1.4000 round number just under a flattening EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 46.
Support: 1.3997, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4015, 1.4044
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.4015 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the sequence and exposes the 1.4044 Thu high, near the 38.2% retrace of the Wed-Fri decline
Failure to hold the 1.3997 Asia low reopens the 1.3968 week low
BoC decision Wed Oct 28 13:45 UTC and FOMC at 18:00 UTC the same day could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; dip below 1.4000 reclaimed.
USDCAD has printed lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.4112 high, with each bounce capped below a falling EMA50 and the lower-high trendline drawn from Wednesday's NY-session spike to 1.4082. Friday's NY-session drop to 1.3968 came around mixed Canadian retail sales, then reversed as the US PMI and Michigan sentiment beats lifted the dollar back above the 1.4000 round number. That leaves the dip under the handle looking like a false break for now. Price sits marginally above EMA20 and the 23.6% fib near 1.4002, with RSI(14) back near 50 and the ema50 at 1.4017 overhead ahead of Thursday's high at 1.4044.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4017, 1.4044, 1.4082
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 1.4000 round number and the friday low at 1.3968 would extend the lower-low sequence
Acceptance above the ema50 near 1.4017 and the lower-high trendline would test the thu high at 1.4044; a move through the wed high at 1.4082 breaks the week's lower-high structure
Tue Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence, then Wed Oct 28 BoC (13:45 UTC) and Fed (18:00 UTC) decisions could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; price retesting 1.4000 from below.
H1 has printed lower highs since Monday's 1.4112 week high. The heaviest selling came in Tuesday's Asia-London sessions and Thursday's NY session, as oil strength and BoC hike pricing extended CAD's seven-day rally. In the first hour of NY on Friday, around mixed Canadian retail sales, price broke the 1.4000 round number to a 1.3968 week low, then firm US PMIs and UoM sentiment drove a 27-pip rebound into a retest of 1.4000 and a flattening EMA(20). RSI(14) has lifted from near 30 to ~43, but price stays below EMA(50) and the lower-highs line, with the Friday high at 1.4018 and Thursday's 1.4044 lower high overhead.
Support: 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4018, 1.4044
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.4018 friday high and the lower-highs line would interrupt the downtrend sequence; 1.4044 lower high is the next structural cap
Rejection at the 1.4000 round number followed by a break of the 1.3968 week low would confirm another lower low
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC (f/c hike to 2.5%) and Fed Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; the digest flags a BoC hold as the sharpest repricing scenario
Thin Friday close and weekend oil/Middle East headlines could leave a gap at the weekly open
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; Friday range broken lower.
USDCAD has printed a sequence of lower highs since Monday's 1.4112 peak: the 1.4082 NY spike Wednesday was rejected, then the Thu high at 1.4044 and Friday's London lower high at 1.4018 followed, as CAD drew support from firmer oil and BoC hike pricing. Around the NY open Friday, price broke out of the overnight 1.4000–1.4018 range near the mixed Canadian retail sales release and set a week low at 1.3968. The bounce has stalled below the 1.4000 psych level and EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 36 and the 38.2% retrace of the week's drop sitting near 1.4023.
Support: 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4018, 1.4044
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4000 psych and EMA(20) would undo Friday's range break
A break of the 1.4018 lower high, and the lower-highs trendline with it, would end the lower-high sequence; the Thu high at 1.4044 is the next reference
Failure to hold the 1.3968 week low would extend the downtrend into new lows for the week
BoC (f/c hike to 2.5%) and FOMC both fall on Wed Oct 28; repricing of BoC odds or WTI/Middle East headlines over the weekend could gap this read
Lower highs since Monday, fresh week low below 1.40.
USD/CAD has printed a steady run of lower highs since Monday's 1.4112 peak. The bulk of the decline came in Tuesday's London-NY selling and Thursday's London leg, as firm oil and a softer dollar weighed. The 1.40 pivot gave way early in the NY session after mixed Canadian retail sales, printing a 1.3968 week low with RSI(14) near 28, oversold, and price below both EMA(20) at ~1.4002 and EMA(50) at ~1.4020. Overhead, the Friday high at 1.4018 lines up with the 38.2% retrace of the weekly decline, while the lower-highs trendline sits just under it near 1.4009.
Support: 1.3968, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4018, 1.4044
What it said to watch
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC land inside the current bar and could materially shift this read
Hourly close back above the 1.40 pivot and EMA(20) would mark the break as a false break
Close above the 1.4044 thu high would end the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3968 week low exposes the 1.3950 round number
Oil/Middle East headlines remain the main CAD driver into next week's BoC and FOMC on Oct 28
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; Friday range broken lower.
USDCAD has carved a clean sequence of lower highs this week, from Monday's NY-session high at 1.4112 through 1.4082 Wednesday, 1.4044 Thursday and 1.4018 Friday. Each bounce failed below a falling trendline as CAD drew support from firm oil and BoC hike pricing. Around the 12:30 UTC Canada Retail Sales release, price broke the 1.40 handle and Friday's Asian range. The pair printed a today low at 1.3968, with RSI(14) near 34 and price below both EMA(20) and EMA(50).
Support: 1.3968, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4018, 1.40401
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 1.40 handle would mark the break as a false break and return price to Friday's range
A push through the 1.4018 lower high and the falling trendline would break the week's lower-high sequence
The 50% fib of the week's decline at 1.4040 lines up with Thursday's high; a move there would be a deeper retracement within the downtrend
Holding below the today low at 1.3968 leaves the round number at 1.3950 as the next nearby reference
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read in the next bars
Lower highs since Monday; basing at the 1.40 handle.
USDCAD has carved a sequence of lower highs from Monday's 1.4112 peak, through the Wed spike high at 1.4082 and Thursday's lower high at 1.4044, with the main leg lower running through Thursday's NY session on a softer USD and oil-backed CAD. Since then price has compressed around the 1.4000 round number, with the week low at 1.3997 printed twice. RSI(14) sits in the low 40s as ranges shrink. Today's London push to the Fri high at 1.4018 was rejected at the descending trendline, which keeps price below EMA(20) and EMA(50).
Support: 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.4018, 1.40436, 1.40816
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC and US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
An H1 close below the 1.3997 week low extends the lower-low sequence beneath the round number
A close above the 1.4018 Fri high and the descending trendline would challenge the downtrend read, with the 1.4044 lower high and the fib 38.2% (~1.4041) next
The Wed spike high at 1.4082 near the fib 61.8% (~1.4068) is the level that would mark a full structural reversal of the week's move
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday, tight base above 1.40.
USDCAD has carved a clean sequence of lower highs from Monday's 1.4112 peak. The main legs lower came in the Tuesday London-NY session and across Thursday, as oil strength, BoC hike pricing and a soft USD drove a seventh down day. Wednesday's NY spike to 1.4082 was rejected, and Thursday's bounce stalled at a lower high of 1.4044, near the 38.2% retracement of the week's drop. Friday has compressed into a roughly 20-pip range around the 1.40 psych level, with the week low at 1.3997 holding in Asia and the fri high at 1.4018 capping London. Price sits below the H1 ema20 near 1.4011, and RSI(14) is flat in the mid-40s.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.4011, 1.4018, 1.40436
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC and US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 1.3997 week low extends the lower-low sequence
Hourly closes back above ema20 and the 1.4018 fri high would mark a break of the lower-high line
Recovery above the 1.4044 lower high (38.2% fib) invalidates the week's lower-high structure
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.4112 week high.
USDCAD has printed lower highs all week, from 1.4112 after Monday's soft CAD CPI to the 1.4082 wed high, the 1.4044 lower high on Thursday and now Friday's 1.4018 session high. The selling came mainly in London and early NY hours, with oil near five-week highs and BoC hike pricing behind the CAD bid. The Asian range set a week low at 1.3997 just under the 1.40 round number, where RSI(14) held above its Thursday trough. The London open rejection from 1.4018 has returned price to that floor, below both EMAs.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3997
Resistance: 1.4018, 1.4044, 1.4082
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC and US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read around the 1.40 round number
An H1 close below the 1.3997 week low extends the lower-low sequence and leaves the bullish RSI divergence unconfirmed
A close above the 1.4044 lower high, near the 38.2% fib of the week's range, would break the lower-high trendline and the week's sequence
Reclaiming the 1.4018 session high would mark the London rejection as a failed push lower
The BoC decision on Oct 28 is the next major risk to the week's CAD-driven structure
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; Friday basing above 1.4000.
USDCAD has carved a steady sequence of lower highs since Monday's 1.4112 peak, with the Wed high at 1.4082 and Thu high at 1.4044 each capping rebounds. The heaviest legs came in Tuesday's Asia-to-NY slide and Thursday's NY session, extending a seventh daily decline as CAD firmed on oil near five-week highs and BoC hike pricing. Since Friday's Asia week low at 1.3997, price has compressed just above the 1.4000 round number and is edging back over the EMA(20) near 1.4014. RSI(14) has recovered to about 50 from the low 40s, while the EMA(50) at 1.4027 sits overhead.
Support: 1.4014, 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.40272, 1.40436, 1.40816
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC, then US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 1.3997 week low extends the lower-low sequence through the 1.4000 round number
Recovery through the ema50 and above the Thu high at 1.4044 (near the 38.2% fib) breaks the lower-highs pattern
Wed high at 1.4082 aligns with the 61.8% fib of the week's decline; a test there would mark a deeper retracement
BoC and Fed decisions next week are the dominant catalyst for the swing structure
Lower highs and lower lows all week; tight Asian range above the week low.
USD/CAD has carved lower highs since Monday's 1.4112 peak. London-hours selling on Tuesday and Thursday drove the pair to a 1.3997 week low, as firmer oil and a soft dollar extended the seven-day slide. Friday's Asian range has compressed just above the 1.4000 round number, with price flat against EMA(20) and the week low printing on weaker RSI(14) momentum than Thursday's, a mild bullish divergence. The session high at 1.4017 caps the range, and Thursday's lower high at 1.4044 sits beside the 38.2% retracement of the weekly decline fib.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.40172, 1.40436, 1.40816
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC, followed by US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 1.3997 week low and the 1.4000 round number extends the lower-low sequence
H1 close above the 1.4044 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the sequence of lower highs
A recovery through the Wed high at 1.4082 would negate the weekly decline structure
Break of the 1.4017 session high ends the Asian-range consolidation
Firmer oil and a soft USD drove a steady slide from Monday's 1.4112 high, with a lower high at 1.4082 (wed high) and another at 1.4044. The NY sessions did most of the damage, and Thursday's NY fade carried price to a 1.3997 week low in Friday's Asia session, just under the 1.4000 psych level. That low came with a higher RSI(14) reading than Thursday's NY trough, a mild bullish divergence. Price is now pressing EMA(20) near 1.4014 and testing the session high at 1.4017, nudging the Wed–Thu lower-highs line as London opens.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.40172, 1.40436, 1.40816
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3997 week low and 1.4000 psych resumes the lower-low sequence
H1 close above the 1.4044 lower high breaks this week's lower-high structure; the 23.6% fib of the weekly decline sits at 1.4024 on the way
Holding above the session high at 1.4017 confirms the break of the lower-highs line; 1.4082 wed high is the next swing above
Canada Retail Sales 12:30 UTC and US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday, tight Asian range at lows.
USDCAD has set lower highs every day since Monday's 1.4112 week high. The heaviest legs came in the Tuesday and Thursday NY sessions as the oil spike and a softer USD weighed. Price has stalled in a tight Asian range just above the 1.4000 round number and the 1.3997 week low, sitting just under the EMA20 near 1.4014 and pressing the lower highs trendline from Wednesday's high, with RSI(14) recovering to around 44 after Thursday's push lower.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.4014, 1.40436, 1.40816
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4044 thu high, near the 38.2% fib of the week's decline, breaks the lower highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4000 round number and the 1.3997 week low extends the lower-low structure
Recovery through the 1.4082 wed high would invalidate the downtrend read
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC, then US PMIs and Michigan sentiment at 13:45–14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read during the NY session
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday, compressing above the week low.
USDCAD has shed about 127 pips in the Mon-Fri decline from 1.4124. The Tuesday London-into-NY slide and Thursday's NY-afternoon leg did most of the work, as WTI strength and a soft USD drove a seventh down day. Lower highs at the wed high 1.4082 and thu high 1.4044 define the descending trendline, and price is now pressing that line and the ema20 near 1.4013 in the Asian session. The marginal week low at 1.3997 under the 1.4000 psych level printed with RSI(14) holding above Thursday's trough, so momentum is not confirming the new low.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.4013, 1.40436, 1.40816
What it said to watch
H1 close above the thu high 1.4044 breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 50% retracement of the Mon-Fri decline near 1.4060 in play
Sustained trade below the week low 1.3997 and the 1.4000 psych level confirms a fresh lower-low and voids the RSI divergence
Repeated rejection at the ema20 and descending trendline keeps the lower-highs structure intact
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC and US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
BoC decision on Oct 28 is the dominant CAD catalyst into next week
Lower highs each session since Monday; tight Asian range above week low.
USDCAD has printed successive lower highs since Monday's 1.4124 start: 1.4112 in Monday NY, the 1.4082 wed high, then the 1.4044 thu high. London and NY sessions drove each leg lower as the oil spike and firm BoC hike pricing underpinned CAD. Asia has compressed into a 1.3997–1.4009 range just above the week low and the 1.4000 psych handle, with price capped under EMA(20) near 1.4011 and RSI(14) recovering from the low 30s.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.40436, 1.40603, 1.40816
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and US flash PMIs (13:45 UTC) today could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 1.3997 week low extends the lower-low sequence beneath the 1.4000 psych level
Close above the 1.4044 thu high breaks the lower-high pattern and exposes the fib 50% at 1.4060
Recovery through the lower-high trendline toward the 1.4082 wed high would neutralise the weekly downtrend read
Lower highs and lower lows all week; tight Asia compression just above 1.4000.
USD/CAD has printed lower highs since Monday, sliding ~125 pips from the 1.4124 high to a 1.3997 week low in Asia today. Most of that came in Tuesday's London session and Thursday's NY session, with firmer oil and broad USD softness after weak megacap earnings behind the move. Wednesday's NY spike to 1.4082 (wed high) was rejected. Thursday's 1.4044 lower high stalled at the 38.2% fib of the week's drop. Price is now compressing just above the 1.4000 round number and below EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 35. RSI registered a marginally higher reading on today's new low than at the Thursday NY low.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39966
Resistance: 1.40157, 1.40436, 1.40816
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and US PMIs (13:45 UTC) today could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 1.3997 week low extends the lower-low sequence beneath the 1.4000 round number
Recovery above the 1.4016 thu ny high and the lower-highs trendline challenges the descending structure, with the 1.4044 lower high / 38.2% fib next
Only a move back through the 1.4082 wed high would undo the week's lower-high sequence
01:03 UTC
Downtrend, extended near oversold · RSI 28 · price 1.40017
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday, pinned to 1.4000.
USDCAD has slid about 125 pips from Monday's 1.4124 week high. The Wed high at 1.4082 and the Thu high at 1.4044 have each capped bounces along a lower-highs trendline, and Thursday's rebound stalled at the 38.2% retracement of the week's decline. CAD stayed firm on the oil spike and hot IPPI/RMPI prints, which drove a NY-session leg to 1.4004 before the Asia session printed a fresh week low at 1.3997, just under the 1.4000 handle. Price is holding below the H1 ema20 near 1.4014 with RSI(14) at about 28 and no divergence yet.
Support: 1.39966
Resistance: 1.40135, 1.40436, 1.40816
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and US PMIs (13:45 UTC) Friday could materially shift this read
An H1 close back above the 1.4044 thu high breaks the lower-highs trendline sequence
Sustained trade below the 1.3997 week low extends the lower-low structure through the 1.4000 handle
Recovery above the ema20 at 1.4014 would mark the first change in this week's pattern of pullbacks failing beneath it
00:02 UTC
Downtrend, RSI oversold · RSI 25 · price 1.40001
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday.
USDCAD has printed lower highs and lower lows since Monday. The only sharp bounce came on Monday's soft Canada CPI, before the oil rally and revived BoC hike pricing pulled CAD firmer again. Rebounds into Wednesday's NY-session high at 1.4082 and Thursday's London high at 1.4044, near the 38.2% of the week decline fib, both faded, and price now sits below ema20 (~1.4017) at the 1.4000 round number with RSI(14) near 25.
Support: 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4017, 1.4044, 1.4082
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4044 (thu high) breaks the lower highs sequence along the descending trendline
Sustained trade below the 1.4000 round number extends the lower-low sequence; ema20 near 1.4017 has capped bounces since Thursday's NY session
A reclaim of 1.4082 (wed high) would negate the week's downtrend structure
Canada Retail Sales (Fri 12:30 UTC) and US flash PMIs (Fri 13:45 UTC) could materially shift this read