Lower highs from 1.4082; Sunday gap-up rejected at 1.4042.
USD/CAD has printed lower highs since Wednesday's NY spike to the 1.4082 wed high, with CAD firm on oil and BoC-hike bets. The slide hit a 1.3968 week low around Friday's mixed Canadian retail sales, with RSI(14) oversold, before NY hours lifted price back over 1.4000. Sunday's gap-up stalled at 1.4042, matching Thursday's lower high and the 61.8% retracement of the Wednesday-to-Friday leg. The gap has since filled toward Friday's 1.4009 close, leaving price above EMA(20) near 1.4007 but pinned at EMA(50) around 1.4016, with RSI(14) at 56.
Support: 1.40094, 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4016, 1.4042, 1.40816
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 1.4000 round number re-exposes the 1.3968 week low
Acceptance above the 1.4042 lower high breaks the sequence from the 1.4082 wed high and invalidates the downtrend read
Holding the 1.4009 gap fill keeps EMA(50) at 1.4016 in play as the near-term pivot
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC, then FOMC at 18:00 UTC; a BoC hold is flagged as the larger CAD surprise risk
Lower highs since Tuesday; weekend gap retracing into the 38.2% fib.
USD/CAD printed lower highs from Tuesday's 1.4107 through the 1.4082 Wed high and Thursday's 1.4044, with CAD firm on oil and BoC-hike pricing. The slide reached a 1.3968 week low in the first hour of NY on Friday around Canada's mixed retail sales. That dip under the 1.4000 round number was a false break, recovered by the 1.4009 Fri close. Sunday's open gapped about 29 pips higher, stalled at a 1.4042 sunday high near the 50% fib of the week's decline, and has faded to 1.4020 near the 38.2% level. Price sits just above EMA(20) at 1.4007 and EMA(50) at 1.4017, with RSI(14) at 56.
Support: 1.4009, 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4042, 1.4054, 1.4082
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4042 sunday high and the 1.4054 61.8% fib breaks the lower-highs sequence and exposes the 1.4082 wed high
Failure to hold the 1.4009 fri close fills the weekend gap and returns focus to the 1.4000 round number, then the 1.3968 week low
Tuesday's US data (ADP, Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence) could shift USD tone ahead of Wednesday
BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a BoC hold is the larger surprise risk for CAD
21:04 UTC
Downtrend, rebounding off the lows · RSI 50 · price 1.40094
Lower highs since Tuesday; false break below 1.4000 on Friday.
USD/CAD has set a lower high every day since Tuesday's 1.4109 open: the wed high at 1.4082, the thu high at 1.4044 and the fri high at 1.4018. Firm oil and BoC-hike pricing kept CAD supported through the week. Friday's NY-open drop to the 1.3968 swing low, around the mixed Canada retail sales print, did not hold below the 1.4000 round number. The rebound has lifted price back above EMA(20) near 1.4002 and into the 38.2% retracement at 1.4011, with RSI(14) recovering to around 50, while price stays below EMA(50).
Support: 1.4000, 1.3968
Resistance: 1.4018, 1.40436, 1.40816
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 1.4000 round number and the 1.3968 swing low would resume the lower-low sequence
Sustained trade above the fri high at 1.4018 breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 50% retracement near 1.4025 and the thu high at 1.4044
Wed high at 1.4082 (61.8% zone near 1.4038 below it) caps the week's corrective range
BoC decision Wed Oct 28 13:45 UTC (25bp hike to 2.5% consensus): a hold would be the larger shock to this structure. FOMC follows at 18:00 UTC the same day