21:04 UTC
Downtrend resumed, seven-session slide · RSI 33 · price 1.40094
Lower highs/lower lows since the Oct 14 triple top.
The Sep–Oct recovery from the 1.3732 aug low stalled in a triple top at 1.4293–1.4299 across the first half of October. The Oct 15 close through the 1.4203 neckline started a seven-session slide of successive lower highs, carrying price back below the ema50 (~1.4070) to the 50% retracement of the Aug–Oct rise near 1.4016. CAD strength on oil and BoC-hike pricing drove the leg, and Friday's 1.3968 week low is the first daily print below the 1.4000 handle since mid-September.
Support: 1.3968, 1.3949, 1.3732
Resistance: 1.4070, 1.4203, 1.4299
What it said to watch
- Daily close back above the ema50 at 1.4070 would break the slide highs sequence and neutralise the triple-top read
- Failure to hold the 1.3968 week low and the 1.3949 61.8% fib exposes the 1.3732 aug low
- Recovery back above the 1.4203 neckline would mark the triple-top breakdown as failed
- BoC decision Wed Oct 28 13:45 UTC (hike to 2.5% consensus) and FOMC at 18:00 UTC the same day could materially shift this read
- RSI near 33 is approaching but not yet at oversold; a sub-30 print would flag the slide as stretched