21:05 UTC
Downtrend from mid-October high, testing the 50% retrace · RSI 34 · price 1.4011
Double top at 1.4299; seven-session slide toward the 1.3968 swing low.
The rally off the August low at 1.3732, built from a September base near 1.3760, stalled at a double top around 1.4299 on Oct 9 and Oct 14. Seven straight lower closes followed as BoC-Fed policy divergence and hawkish Macklem comments lifted CAD. Price is now below both EMA20 and the ema50 near 1.4069 and sits near the 50% retrace of the Aug-Oct rally at 1.4016. Last Friday's swing low at 1.3968 held, and Monday's session has been confined to a tight 1.4010-1.4040 band.
Support: 1.3968, 1.3949, 1.3732
Resistance: 1.4069, 1.4299
What it said to watch
- BoC decision Wed 13:45 UTC: a hold against ~85-90% hike pricing would challenge the downtrend read and put the ema50 at 1.4069 back in focus
- Fed decision later Wed, then Q3 GDP and PCE later in the week, could reshape the USD side of the move
- A daily close below the 1.3968 swing low and the 1.3949 fib 61.8% opens the path back toward the 1.3732 aug low
- A daily close back above the ema50 near 1.4069 would weaken the double top follow-through read
- RSI near 34 is approaching but not yet at oversold