21:05 UTC
Pullback from October high, price slipping below a flattening EMA(50) · RSI 41 · price 1.40129
Double top near 1.4300 broke its 1.4200 neckline; lower highs since Oct 14, now pausing at the 50% retrace near 1.4000.
The September advance from 1.3759 stalled at a double top near 1.4300 on Oct 9 and Oct 14. The 1.4200 neckline gave way on Oct 15, and a seven-session slide followed as BoC hike pricing, Macklem's hawkish comments and firmer oil supported CAD. That leg printed a six-week swing low at 1.3968 on Friday. Price has spent four sessions basing around the 1.4000 psych pivot, which is roughly the 50% retracement of the Aug–Oct move, with closes now below both EMA(20) and a flattening EMA(50) and RSI near 41.
Support: 1.3968, 1.3949, 1.3732
Resistance: 1.4065, 1.4200, 1.4299
What it said to watch
- BoC decision and MPR Wed 13:45 UTC (f/c hike to 2.50%): a hold against ~85% priced odds or a one-and-wait framing could reverse the CAD leg
- FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC and Core PCE Thu 12:30 UTC could shift USD pricing and the read
- Daily close below the 1.3968 swing low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.3949, then the august low at 1.3732
- Recovery back above the ema50 near 1.4065 and the 1.4200 neckline would neutralise the double top read