USDCAD ground to 14-month highs in a near straight-line advance, driven by the hawkish-Fed bid and crude's June slide; higher-low structure has held since the 1.40 break. The last bar rejected sharply from the 1.4248 April high back under 1.4200, the first real supply shown in the window. ATR(14) ticked up on that wide-range bar, but the EMA20/EMA50 stack remains intact below price.
Support: 1.4144, 1.4100
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4248
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4248 opens the 1.43-1.45 zone
Failure to hold 1.4130-1.4150 breaks the higher-low structure
Fed-speak (Williams, Kashkari) and UoM data could shift the USD read
USDCAD ran to 14-month highs on the hawkish-Fed bid and the June oil rout, stalling twice at 1.42476 to form a double top. The last bar reversed sharply to 1.41771 and closed back below EMA20, the first clear momentum stall in the leg, though price holds above the rising EMA50. ATR(14) near 210 pips shows an expanded, still-volatile regime after the run.
Support: 1.41771, 1.4150, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.42476, 1.4250
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.4150 breaks the higher-low structure
Sustained break above 1.42476 reasserts the uptrend toward 1.43+
Canada GDP Jun 30 and US data could shift this read
Higher highs/lows, sharp rejection at 14-month high.
USDCAD ground to fresh 14-month highs near 1.4248 in a clean multi-week uptrend, driven by hawkish-Fed repricing and the June oil slide. The latest bar printed a sharp 50-pip rejection off 1.42476 back below EMA20, the first decisive intraday reversal since the breakout. Higher-low structure off 1.4092 remains intact and ATR(14) is expanding, but price stalling at the highs leaves the rally stretched.
Support: 1.41437, 1.41344, 1.40921
Resistance: 1.42476, 1.42397
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close above 1.42476 opens the 1.43-1.45 zone
Close below 1.41437 breaks rising support and flags a lower high
Canada GDP Jun 30 and US Fedspeak could shift the read
Higher highs into 14-month high, sharp rejection on latest bar.
Higher-high structure intact since early-month, with USD/CAD grinding to a fresh 14-month high at 1.4248 on broad dollar strength and crude weakness. The latest bar printed a sharp rejection back below 1.4200, slipping just under the EMA20 while the EMA50 remains lower. ATR(14) is expanding as the trend stretches into overbought territory cited by the macro desks.
Support: 1.4200, 1.4144, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.42476, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Close back above 1.4248 opens the 1.43 psych zone
Failure to hold 1.4144 swing low confirms a lower-low
Canada GDP Jun 30 could shift the CAD read
13:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended into highs · RSI 63 · price 1.42418
Higher highs / higher lows, grinding into 14-month high.
USDCAD has carried a clean higher-high/higher-low sequence over the last two weeks, riding widening US-Canada yield spreads and the ~20% June oil slide, and is now pressing the 14-month high near 1.4250. Hot Canada CPI failed to lift CAD while a hawkish-Fed repricing keeps USD bid, but the grind is stretched with RSI elevated. Price is consolidating just under 1.4250 ahead of US core PCE.
Support: 1.4185, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4250, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4250 opens the path toward the 1.43 zone
US core PCE at 12:30 UTC is the immediate catalyst and could shift this read
Failure to hold 1.4150 nov peak would signal a corrective leg lower
13:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended into resistance · RSI 68 · price 1.42418
Higher highs and higher lows since early-month low.
Clean H4 uptrend: higher highs and higher lows since the 1.379 base, with price grinding into the 1.4250 14-month cap on widening US-Canada yield spreads and the June oil rout. RSI(14) near 68 flags the move as stretched as it tests the ceiling, and price holds well above both EMAs. Swing support sits near 1.4218 with the 1.4130-1.4150 Nov peak below as the deeper structural floor.
Support: 1.4218, 1.4140
Resistance: 1.4250
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4250 opens the path toward the 1.43-1.45 zone
Failure to hold 1.4218 swing low risks a corrective leg toward the 1.4130-1.4150 nov peak
US Core PCE at 12:30 UTC is the immediate catalyst — a soft print could trigger a counter-trend squeeze on the overbought condition
09:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum slowing near cycle high · RSI 64 · price 1.42289
Higher highs, higher lows since early-month base.
USDCAD has ground to fresh 14-month highs at 1.42476, a clean higher-high/higher-low sequence driven by hawkish Fed repricing, wide US-Canada yield spreads and soft oil. Price is now consolidating in a tight band above 1.4215 with ATR compressing, while RSI sits in stretched territory — the move into the cycle high is increasingly crowded. The leg is intact above the 1.4044 breakout base.
Support: 1.4215, 1.4144, 1.4025
Resistance: 1.42476, 1.4300
What it said to watch
US Core PCE today 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
H4 close back below 1.42150 breaks the recent consolidation floor
Acceptance above 1.42476 opens the path toward 1.4300
Stretched RSI flags correction risk back toward 1.4144 prior high
09:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended · RSI 66 · price 1.42289
Higher highs and higher lows since mid-window.
USDCAD is grinding higher in a clean H4 uptrend, printing fresh 14-month highs at 1.42476 as broad USD strength on hawkish-Fed repricing and soft oil keep CAD pinned. Higher-low structure remains intact with price holding well above EMA20 and EMA50, though RSI near 66 reflects an extended, late-stage move. The 1.4150 former Nov peak is the nearest reference support if the climb stalls.
Support: 1.4150
Resistance: 1.42476, 1.4300
What it said to watch
US Core PCE today 12:30 GMT (f/c 3.4%) could materially shift this read
Close above 1.42476 opens the 1.43 psych area
Failure to hold 1.4150 would break the higher-low structure
05:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended · RSI 64 · price 1.42291
Higher highs, higher lows intact.
USDCAD remains in a clean H4 uptrend, posting fresh 14-month highs near 1.4248 as wide US-Canada yield spreads and a hawkish-Fed bias keep the Loonie pressured. Higher-low structure has held since the early-month base near 1.4000, with price tracking the upper half of a rising channel; ATR is steady, signalling trend extension rather than compression. The advance is stretched — context flags overbought conditions — but no swing low has been broken.
Support: 1.4201, 1.4150, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.42476
What it said to watch
US Core PCE at 12:30 UTC is the dominant near-term catalyst and could shift this read
H4 close below 1.4150 breaks the higher-low structure
Fresh prints above 1.42476 keep the uptrend intact
05:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended · RSI 65 · price 1.42291
Higher highs, higher lows since early month.
USDCAD is in a clean multi-week uptrend, printing higher highs and higher lows and stretching to a fresh 14-month high at 1.42476 as wide Fed-BoC yield spreads and soft oil keep the Loonie pinned. ATR(14) has expanded through the latest leg and price holds well above EMA20 and EMA50, but RSI near 64 reflects the stretched, overbought condition flagged into US PCE. Pullbacks have been shallow, with demand stepping in around the 1.4150 former Nov peak.
Support: 1.41437, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.42476, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Fresh H4 closes above 1.42476 keep the trend intact toward the 1.43-1.45 zone
Failure to hold 1.41437 would mark the first lower-low and break the higher-low sequence
US Core PCE today (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read given crowded USD longs
01:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended · RSI 68 · price 1.42376
Higher highs and higher lows, 14-month highs.
USDCAD has ground to fresh 14-month highs near 1.4248, a clean higher-high/higher-low sequence that accelerated through 1.4100 last week as a hot Canada CPI was shrugged off and broad USD strength dominated. Price now presses the swing high with RSI elevated, and the rising channel off the 1.4044 swing low remains intact. The November peak around 1.4150 stands as the first structural support beneath the current grind.
Support: 1.4150, 1.4044, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4248, 1.4300
What it said to watch
US Core PCE in ~12h is the dominant near-term USD catalyst for this read
H4 close above 1.4248 swing high opens the path toward the 1.4300 psych level
Failure to hold the 1.4150 nov peak would mark the first lower-high since the breakout
Higher highs and higher lows since early-month low.
USDCAD remains in a clean H4 uptrend, grinding to fresh multi-month highs near 1.4248 as broad USD strength and crowded net-short CAD positioning dominate; the hot Canadian CPI was shrugged off with the BoC seen patient. Price sits above both EMAs with a sequence of higher lows intact since the 1.4025 breakout base. RSI in the high-60s flags an extended condition into the 1.4248 area.
Support: 1.41437, 1.4150, 1.4030
Resistance: 1.42476, 1.4300
What it said to watch
US Core PCE in ~12h is the dominant near-term catalyst for this pair
H4 close above 1.4248 opens the path toward the 1.4300 round number
Failure to hold 1.4144 swing low would mark the first lower-low and break the rising support line