USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Friday, 26 June 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
20:01 UTC
Uptrend stalled, rolling over · RSI 43 · price 1.41794
Double top near week high, breaking down.
USDCAD pushed to fresh week highs and printed a double top near 1.42476 mid-week before rolling over, with price now trading below EMA20 and EMA50. The fade follows the CAD rebound on in-line US PCE and softer July Fed-hike odds, dragging the pair back toward the 1.41688 swing low. RSI(14) sits in the low 40s as the corrective leg extends.
Support: 1.41688, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.42476
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.41688 confirms a lower-low and extends the breakdown
Reclaim of 1.42000 round number negates the rollover
Canada GDP Jun-30 could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the 1.4248 top, holding above week low.
USD/CAD pushed to fresh weekly highs near 1.4248 mid-week before the move stalled twice at that level, then corrected lower as in-line US PCE trimmed July Fed-hike bets and the Loonie firmed. Price has since slipped to test 1.4169 and is now consolidating around 1.4190 — back above EMA(20) but capped beneath EMA(50), with RSI(14) cycling near the midline. The double top at 1.4248 caps the upside while 1.4169 marks the week's floor.
Support: 1.41688, 1.4177
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4224, 1.42476
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.4200 reopens the path toward 1.4224 and the 1.4248 double-top
Failure to hold 1.4169 confirms a lower low and extends the correction
Canada GDP (Jun-30) and US ADP/ISM (Jul-1) could materially shift this read
USDCAD topped near 1.4248 midweek and has carved lower highs since, easing back as in-line US PCE trimmed July Fed-hike odds and lifted the Loonie off 14-month lows. Price is now coiling around 1.4190 right on the H1 EMA(20), below the EMA(50), with RSI(14) hovering mid-range after the bounce off the 1.4172 swing low. The 1.4200 round number and EMA(50) cluster above is capping recovery attempts.
Support: 1.4172, 1.4158
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4205, 1.42476
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.42050 reasserts the prior uptrend toward week high
Loss of 1.41720 swing low confirms a lower-low and opens the weekly open at 1.41580
Canada GDP (Jun 30) and ADP/ISM (Jul 1) are near catalysts that could break this consolidation
USDCAD ground to a fresh 14-month high near 1.4248 mid-week before stalling — twin rejections at 1.42476 formed a double top, and the 1.4215 neckline gave way as USD eased post in-line US PCE. Price now consolidates around 1.4190, holding the EMA20 but below the EMA50, with the week low at 1.4169 the next reference.
Support: 1.41688, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.42149, 1.42476
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.4215 neckline negates the double top read
H1 close below 1.4169 confirms a lower low toward the 1.4150 nov peak zone
ADP and ISM Manufacturing on Jul 1 could materially shift this read
USD/CAD pushed to fresh week highs near 1.42476 through Wednesday's NY session before fading, with in-line US PCE trimming Fed hike odds and pressuring the dollar. Price now consolidates around 1.4190, below EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI hovering mid-40s after rejection of the 1.4247 region twice. The 1.41688 week low marks the near-term floor while 1.42000 caps recovery attempts.
Support: 1.41688, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.42476
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.41688 confirms a lower-low
Reclaim of 1.42000 (ema20) reopens the 1.42476 week high
Week opened near 1.4156 Monday and rallied to fresh 14-month highs at 1.4248 by midweek, where two attempts stalled to form a double top. Price has since corrected toward 1.4190, hovering EMA(20) but below EMA(50), after in-line US PCE trimmed Fed-hike bets and lifted CAD off the lows. RSI(14) sits mid-40s as the pullback works back into the week's range.
Support: 1.4170, 1.4156, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4248
What it said to watch
Sustained close above 1.4248 week high reasserts the uptrend
Loss of 1.4170 swing low confirms a lower low toward the 1.4156 weekly open
Canada GDP (Jun-30) could materially shift this read
USDCAD ran to a 14-month high near 1.4240 earlier this week before stalling twice at that level and correcting lower as in-line US PCE trimmed Fed-hike bets and lifted CAD off its lows. Price has since drifted back to the EMA20 around 1.4190 with RSI(14) cycling mid-range, while the 1.4170 swing low has held the session base. The 1.4240 double top remains the dominant cap on the week.
Support: 1.4170, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4240
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4240 negates the double top and reasserts the uptrend
Failure to hold 1.4170 confirms a lower-low toward the 1.4150 former Nov peak
Canada GDP (Jun-30) could materially shift this read
USDCAD pushed to a 14-month high near 1.4248 mid-week before easing, with two failed attempts there forming a double top. Price has slipped below EMA(20) into the NY session, helped by a CAD bounce as WTI firmed and in-line US PCE trimmed July Fed hike odds. RSI(14) has cooled into the mid-40s as the pair drifts back toward 1.4180.
Support: 1.4174, 1.4150, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4248, 1.4240
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.4200 and EMA20 would reassert the up-leg
Failure to hold 1.4174 confirms a lower-low toward 1.4150
Canada GDP MoM Jun 30 could materially shift this read
Lower highs off the week high after a 14-month peak.
USDCAD climbed steadily from Monday's open to a 14-month high near 1.42476, but twin rejections around 1.4245/1.4248 left a double-top look and price has since rolled over below EMA20. The sharp NY-session slide came as WTI rebounded and in-line US PCE trimmed Fed hike odds, dragging price back under the 1.4200 round number toward the 1.41688 swing low. RSI(14) has cycled down toward the low-40s, confirming the loss of upside momentum.
Support: 1.41688, 1.41488, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200, 1.42476
What it said to watch
Hourly reclaim of 1.4200 and EMA20 would reopen the week-high test at 1.42476
Failure to hold 1.41688 exposes the 1.41488 week low
Canada GDP MoM Jun 30 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USD/CAD printed a double top near 1.4248 mid-week and rolled over, with a sharp drop into Thursday as in-line US PCE trimmed Fed-hike odds and a WTI rebound steadied the Loonie. Price based around 1.4170 and snapped back above EMA20 to 1.4200, the 50% retrace of this week's 1.4149-1.4248 rally. RSI(14) is back near 49 after working off the prior overbought stretch.
Support: 1.41688, 1.41639, 1.41488
Resistance: 1.42228, 1.42476
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.41688 opens the path to the 1.41639 week open and 1.41488 week low
Reclaim of 1.42228 prior high needed to negate the double top
Canada GDP Jun-30 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Double top at week high, lower highs into recovery.
USDCAD ran to a 1.42476 double top mid-week on CAD weakness and the June oil slump, then rolled into a corrective decline that printed a 1.41688 session low. A sharp final-bar recovery to 1.4200 after in-line US PCE and an oil rebound reclaimed EMA20, but price still sits below EMA50 with RSI cycling back toward the 50 line. The week's impulse off 1.41488 is holding its 50% retrace around here.
Support: 1.41688, 1.4192, 1.41488
Resistance: 1.42055, 1.42476
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.42055 lower-highs line reopens the path to 1.42476
Failure to hold 1.41688 session low confirms a lower low
Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Double top at 14-month highs, pullback below EMAs.
USDCAD ran to 14-month highs near 1.42476 twice this week before stalling into a double top; in-line US PCE and a WTI rebound to ~$70.50 gave the Loonie a reprieve and price has since rolled over below EMA20 and EMA50. The decline accelerated through the NY session, leaving price probing the 1.41688 session low with RSI(14) cooling near 40. Weekly open at 1.41511 sits just beneath as the next reference.
Support: 1.41688, 1.41511, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4204, 1.42476
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.41688 exposes the 1.41511 week open and the 1.4150 prior-resistance zone
Reclaim of the 1.42040 EMA20 area would neutralise the corrective read
Canada GDP (Jun-30) is the next material CAD catalyst for this pair
Lower highs off 1.4248, retracing this week's rally.
USDCAD topped twice near 1.4240, the week high, before easing off 14-month highs as in-line US PCE trimmed July Fed-hike odds and a WTI rebound supported the Loonie. Price has slipped under EMA20 with a sequence of lower highs into the NY session, and now trades sub-1.4200 round number with RSI(14) near 38. The 1.4170 swing low is the immediate floor; the weekly low at 1.4148 marks the base of the move.
Support: 1.4170, 1.4148
Resistance: 1.4195, 1.4200, 1.4240
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4148 weekly low confirms a lower low and deeper correction
Reclaim of 1.4200 round number and EMA20 would neutralise the pullback
Canada GDP Jun-30 and Fed speakers today are near-term risks to this read
13:02 UTC
Rolling over from highs, momentum down · RSI 39 · price 1.41756
Double top then lower highs.
USDCAD ran to a 14-month high near 1.4248 mid-week, printed a matched top there and rolled over. The second leg lower accelerated into the NY session yesterday after in-line US PCE trimmed Fed-hike odds and a WTI bounce lent CAD support; price now trades below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI sub-40. Holding just above the 1.4174 session low after the latest down-leg.
Support: 1.4174, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.42476
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4174 confirms a lower-low and opens 1.4150
Reclaim of 1.4200/EMA20 needed to negate the lower-highs sequence
Michigan sentiment at 14:00 UTC plus Fed Williams/Kashkari could shift the USD read
USDCAD ran to a 14-mo high at 1.4248 mid-week before twin rejections carved a double top; price has since slid for a second day, trading below EMA20 and EMA50 as in-line US PCE trimmed Fed-hike odds and an oil bounce supported CAD. The day low at 1.4174 is the immediate floor, with the 1.4205 EMA50 region now capping. RSI(14) is cycling in the low 40s, confirming the corrective tone.
Support: 1.4174, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4205, 1.4248
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4150 opens path to nov support
Reclaim of 1.4205 ema50 negates the lower-high sequence
Canada GDP Jun 30 12:30 UTC could shift this read
12:02 UTC
Uptrend correcting lower · RSI 43 · price 1.41857
Lower highs off 1.42476 double top.
USDCAD rallied from Monday's 1.41472 low to a double top at 1.42476 mid-week before being rejected; price has since carved lower highs and slipped back below the EMA20 near 1.41920. The pullback lines up with CAD firming after an in-line US core PCE print trimmed Fed-hike odds and WTI bounced off lows. Former support at 1.42040 now caps, with the 1.41770 swing low the next reference into the NY session.
Support: 1.4177, 1.41472
Resistance: 1.4192, 1.4204, 1.42476
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.41920 ema20 eases the corrective tone
Loss of 1.41770 swing low exposes the 1.41472 week low
Michigan sentiment 14:00 UTC and Fed speakers could shift this read
USDCAD climbed steadily since Monday's open to a double top near 1.42476 before rolling over yesterday as in-line US core PCE trimmed Fed-hike bets and a WTI rebound firmed the loonie. Price now sits below EMA20 (~1.41920) with RSI(14) in the mid-40s, having based around the 1.41786 session low. The two failed pokes at 1.42476 mark the week's ceiling, while 1.41472 remains the week low.
Support: 1.41786, 1.41472
Resistance: 1.4192, 1.42476
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.41920 reclaims EMA20 and stalls the correction
A break above 1.42476 negates the double top
Failure to hold 1.41786 opens a move toward the 1.41472 week low
Canada GDP (Jun 30, 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
USD/CAD rolled over from the 1.4247 week high after US PCE landed only in line, trimming Fed-hike odds and letting the commodity-linked Loonie recover. Price now trades below both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI sub-40, printing lower highs through the NY session. Resistance at the 1.4200 round number and EMA20 near 1.4195 has capped the bounce, while the 1.4130-1.4150 November peak zone sits as the next support area to monitor.
Support: 1.41786, 1.4150, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.4195, 1.4200, 1.42476
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4200 reclaims the EMAs and neutralises the pullback read
Failure to hold 1.4150 (nov peak) confirms deeper unwind of the overbought rally
Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
11:01 UTC
Uptrend stalled, rolling over · RSI 39 · price 1.41803
Double top, corrective leg lower.
USDCAD twin-topped near 1.4248 — a 14-month high — and has rolled over through the NY session, slipping below the 1.4205 shelf as in-line US PCE trimmed Fed-hike bets and a WTI rebound supported the Loonie. Price now sits below EMA20/50 around 1.4192 with RSI(14) sub-40, holding just above the 1.4179 session low. The weekly open at 1.4172 and the 1.4144 week low mark the next reference points beneath.
Support: 1.41786, 1.41717, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.4205, 1.42476
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4205 breakdown level would neutralise the corrective read
Failure to hold 1.4179 session low opens the path to 1.4172 weekly open and 1.4144 week low
Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
10:02 UTC
Uptrend correcting off highs · RSI 43 · price 1.41841
Pullback from week high, below EMA20.
USDCAD is correcting off the week's 1.42476 high, drifting back toward 1.4185 as in-line US PCE trimmed Fed-hike odds and a WTI rebound steadied the Loonie. Price slipped below EMA20 during yesterday's NY session and has since consolidated in the 1.4180–1.4200 band with RSI cycling under 50. The 1.41770 swing low is holding the corrective leg for now.
Support: 1.4177, 1.4170
Resistance: 1.4192, 1.4209, 1.42476
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.41920 (ema20) would negate the corrective lean
Loss of 1.41770 swing low opens deeper unwind toward 1.41700 week low
Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs off the week high, consolidating below EMA20.
The week climbed to a 14-month high near 1.4248 before rolling over as in-line US PCE trimmed Fed-hike odds and a WTI rebound supported the Loonie. Price now sits below EMA20 around 1.4184 with RSI(14) in the mid-40s after twin rejections at 1.4248. Resistance at the 1.4194 EMA20 has capped the latest bounce; support at the 1.4179 session low is being tested.
Support: 1.4179, 1.4150, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.4194, 1.4248
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4194 EMA20 re-engages the uptrend
Failure to hold 1.4179 opens the path toward the 1.4150 nov peak
Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
09:02 UTC
Uptrend stalling, pulling back · RSI 43 · price 1.41885
Pullback from week high, sub-EMA20.
USDCAD ground to fresh 14-month highs near 1.4248 mid-week before stalling, as a softer USD after in-line US PCE and an oil-led CAD bounce capped the rally. Price has since slipped below the EMA20 around 1.4195 and is consolidating in the upper 1.41s, with RSI cooling off overbought. The 1.4181 session low is the immediate floor ahead of the 1.4150 Nov-peak support.
Support: 1.4181, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4195, 1.42476
What it said to watch
A close back above the EMA20 (~1.4195) and the week's lower-highs line negates the pullback read
Loss of 1.4181 session low opens the 1.4150 nov-peak support
Michigan inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could shift the USD read
USDCAD ground to a 14-month high near 1.4248 through midweek before twin rejections capped the move and price rolled back under EMA(20). CAD firmed for a second day as WTI rebounded and a softer USD followed in-line US PCE, dragging the pair into the 0.618 retrace of the week's impulse around 1.4188. RSI(14) has cooled from overbought into the low 40s as the pullback matures.
Support: 1.41771, 1.4150, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.42476
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.4200 EMA(20) would reassert this week's uptrend
Loss of 1.41771 swing low opens the path toward 1.4150
UoM Michigan sentiment + inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift this read
Double-top rejection below week high, now consolidating.
USDCAD climbed steadily from Monday's open to a fresh 14-month high near 1.4248, where two attempts stalled to form a double top. A sharp pullback into the NY session yesterday — tied to USD profit-taking after in-line PCE and a WTI rebound — dragged price back below EMA20 to consolidate around 1.4196, with RSI(14) easing toward 45.
Support: 1.41771, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4205, 1.42476
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.42050 re-engages the week-high test at 1.42476
Loss of 1.41771 swing low confirms a deeper corrective leg toward 1.4150
Canada GDP (Tue 12:30 UTC) and WTI headlines could shift this read
Pullback from week high, consolidating below EMA20.
USD/CAD ran to a 14-month high near 1.4248 mid-week before a sharp NY-session drop yesterday as the USD eased on profit-taking after in-line US PCE and a WTI rebound. Price is now consolidating 1.4185-1.4200, capped below EMA20 with RSI(14) cycling mid-range. The 50% retracement of the week's 1.4144-1.4248 impulse sits right at price, where the market has stalled.
Support: 1.41771, 1.41868
Resistance: 1.4215, 1.42476
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.4215 reclaims the EMAs and reopens the 1.42476 week high
Failure to hold 1.41771 confirms a lower-low and deepens the correction
Michigan sentiment / UoM inflation expectations and Fed speak at 14:00 UTC could shift this read
USD/CAD ground up to a 14-month high near 1.4248 into Wednesday's NY session before a sharp rejection dragged price back to the 1.4177 swing low. In-line US PCE and a WTI rebound fuelled CAD's corrective bounce; recovery has since stalled, leaving price coiling around 1.419 just under EMA20 with RSI cycling near 45-50. The dominant week structure stays up, but momentum has flattened below the highs.
Support: 1.41771, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.4209, 1.42476
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4209 reopens the path to the 1.4248 week high
Loss of 1.4177 swing low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.4144 week low
Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC and UoM data today 14:00 UTC could shift this read
Pulled off 14-month high, consolidating sub-EMA20.
USDCAD opened the week near 1.4144 and ran through successive NY sessions to a 14-month high at 1.4248, the Fed-hawkish repricing and June oil slide doing the work. The advance has since rolled over: an in-line US PCE and a WTI rebound pulled price back below the EMA20, and it now consolidates around 1.4195 with RSI cycling in the low 40s. The week's swing low at 1.4144 remains untested while 1.4248 caps the top.
Support: 1.41846, 1.4177, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.4197, 1.4225, 1.42476
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the EMA20 (~1.4197) reopens the path toward the 1.4248 week high
Failure to hold 1.4177 confirms a lower low and extends the pullback toward 1.4144
WTI around $70.50 and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) are the main swing drivers next session
Double top near 1.4248, consolidating below 1.4200.
USDCAD pushed to a fresh 14-month high near 1.4248 mid-week before twin rejections carved a double top; the pair has since broken its rising support from Monday's low and slipped under EMA20/EMA50. CAD firmed and the pair eased toward 1.419 as WTI rebounded and the dollar softened after in-line US PCE. RSI(14) has rolled to the low 40s, with price now ranging 1.4187–1.4205 below the broken trendline.
Support: 1.41771, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4205, 1.42476
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4205 range top reopens the path to the 1.4248 week high
Failure to hold 1.4177 swing low confirms a lower low
Canada GDP Jun 30 and US Michigan sentiment today (14:00 UTC) could shift this read
USDCAD ground to a 14-month high near 1.42476, where two attempts capped to form a double top before a sharp rejection dragged price back under 1.4200 — the move coincided with in-line US PCE easing USD and a WTI rebound supporting CAD. Price is now consolidating in the 1.4185–1.4200 band, below both EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) cooling toward the mid-40s. The week low at 1.41437 remains the deeper structural reference.
Support: 1.41846, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4225, 1.42476
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.41846 swing low opens path back toward the 1.41437 week low
Reclaim of 1.42000 round and a push through 1.42250 prior high reopens the 1.42476 double top
UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC plus Fed speakers could materially shift this read
USDCAD ground higher through midweek to a double top near 1.4248 before reversing sharply during the NY session as WTI rebounded and the dollar eased off post-PCE highs, dragging the pair back to ~1.419. Price now sits below EMA(20) with RSI cooled toward the low 40s after the rejection at 14-month highs. The 1.4205 prior pivot caps the pullback while 1.4177 swing low underpins it.
Support: 1.4177, 1.4144
Resistance: 1.4205, 1.4248
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.4177 swing low confirms a lower-low and deeper retrace toward 1.4144 week low
H1 close back above 1.4205 prior pivot reopens the 1.4248 week high
WTI direction remains the dominant CAD driver into next week's Canada GDP
USD/CAD has rolled off its 14-month high near 1.4248 after WTI rebounded toward $70.50 and the dollar eased on an in-line US PCE print. Twin highs at 1.42447 and 1.42476 capped the week before a sharp NY-session leg down to 1.4177; price now sits below EMA20 and EMA50, consolidating around 1.419 with RSI in the mid-40s. The week's grind higher has paused while the corrective sequence of lower highs builds.
Support: 1.41771, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.4205, 1.42476
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.4205 reopens the path toward the 1.4248 week high
Loss of 1.4177 swing low confirms a deeper correction toward 1.4144
Oil swings around $70.50 and Canada GDP (Jun 30) are the dominant CAD drivers
USDCAD opened Monday near 1.4188 and ground higher to a 1.42476 week high through the Tue-Wed sessions, but two attempts at that level capped the move and the pair broke down after the in-line US PCE print sparked dollar profit-taking. Price has since stabilised in a 1.4190-1.4205 range, trading below EMA20, as WTI's bounce toward $70.50 underpins a corrective CAD recovery. RSI(14) has cooled into the low 40s, reflecting lost upside momentum.
Support: 1.41771, 1.4190
Resistance: 1.4225, 1.42476
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.41771 confirms a lower-low and extends the pullback
Reclaim of 1.42250 reopens the path to the 1.42476 week high
Canada GDP (Jun 30) and WTI around $70.50 are the dominant CAD drivers into next week
USDCAD ground up to a fresh 14-month high near 1.4248 through midweek before a sharp Thursday reversal during NY hours, as the dollar faded post-PCE and WTI rebounded toward $70.50. Price now sits below EMA(20) around the 50% retrace of the week's impulse, consolidating between 1.4177 and 1.4205 with RSI(14) cycling in the low 40s. The 1.4248 week high capped two attempts and the rejection there remains the key cap.
Support: 1.4177, 1.4144, 1.4130
Resistance: 1.4205, 1.4248
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4205 (EMA20) reopens the 1.4248 week high
Failure to hold 1.4177 swing low exposes the 1.4144 weekly low
Canada GDP Tue 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD pushed to a fresh week high at 1.42476 in the NY session before two equal-high rejections carved a double top, and the pair slipped back toward 1.4200 as WTI rebounded and the dollar eased after the in-line US PCE print. Price is now consolidating just above EMA(20) with RSI(14) back to the midline after the stall. The 1.4189–1.4190 base has absorbed selling on the pullback, capping the immediate downside.
Support: 1.4190, 1.41771, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.4225, 1.42476
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.42476 reopens the path to the April high near 1.4250
Close below 1.41771 confirms a deeper correction toward the 1.4144 week low
US Michigan sentiment + UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift the USD tone
Higher highs into pullback, now consolidating below week high.
USDCAD ground to fresh 14-month highs near 1.4248 mid-week as the oil slump and Fed-hike repricing pressured CAD, but supply capped the move and price pulled back below 1.4200 into Thursday's NY session before reclaiming the figure overnight. It now sits above EMA(20) but below EMA(50) with RSI(14) flat near 50, consolidating in the 1.4190-1.4205 band after the in-line US PCE softened the dollar.
Support: 1.4190, 1.4177, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.4225, 1.42476
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.4225 reopens the 1.4248 week high
Failure to hold 1.4177 confirms a deeper correction toward the 1.41 pivot
WTI near $70.50 and Canada GDP Tue could shift this read
Twin peaks near 1.4248, lower highs into consolidation.
USDCAD ground to fresh 14-month highs near 1.4248 this week before twin peaks rejected and price broke back below EMA20/EMA50, with CAD firming as WTI rebounded toward $70.50 and the Dollar eased after in-line US PCE. Price has since stabilised in a tight 1.4190-1.4200 consolidation just above the 1.4177 neckline, RSI(14) cooling into the mid-40s. The double top and stretched overbought condition flagged this week capped the rally; the up-impulse from 1.4144 is the structure being retraced.
Support: 1.4177, 1.4150, 1.4144
Resistance: 1.4210, 1.4248
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4210 EMA20 re-engages the highs
Break of 1.4177 neckline confirms a lower low toward 1.4150
Pullback from week high, consolidating below EMAs.
USDCAD ground to fresh week highs near 1.4248 before rolling over into the prior NY session as WTI rebounded and the USD eased post-PCE, dropping to 1.4177 then stabilising around 1.4199. Price now sits below both EMA20 (~1.4205) and EMA50 (~1.4215) with RSI(14) mid-range after unwinding from overbought. The 1.4248 week high capped the advance; the 1.4177 pullback low marks the corrective base.
Support: 1.4177, 1.4143
Resistance: 1.4205, 1.4215, 1.42476
What it said to watch
Canada GDP (MoM) Jun 30 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close back above 1.4215 re-engages the EMA cluster and week-high test
Failure to hold 1.4177 confirms a lower-low and extends the correction
WTI swings around $70.50 remain the dominant CAD driver
01:02 UTC
Uptrend, pullback in progress · RSI 44 · price 1.41972
Rejection at week high, consolidating below EMA20.
USDCAD rallied from Monday's 1.4144 flush to a 14-month high near 1.4248 before NY supply capped it and price reversed as in-line US PCE trimmed Fed-hike enthusiasm. The pair has slipped back below EMA20 to consolidate around 1.4197, with RSI(14) cooling off the highs. The pullback low at 1.4177 is the near-term pivot holding the broader weekly uptrend intact.
Support: 1.4177, 1.4156, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.4210, 1.42476
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4210 (EMA20) re-engages the week's uptrend
Loss of 1.4177 exposes 1.4156 and the 1.4144 week low
UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift USD direction
Canadian GDP (Jun 30) a swing risk for CAD
01:02 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back · RSI 44 · price 1.41972
Fresh week high then rejection, mid-range correction.
USDCAD ran to a 14-month high near 1.4248 through the NY session, capped three times before a sharp rejection dragged price back to the 1.4177 swing low. It has since recovered to ~1.4197, sitting just below EMA20 and around the 50% retrace of the week's advance from 1.4143. The in-line US PCE print trimmed Fed-hike pricing and a WTI rebound toward $70.50 supported CAD into the pullback.
Support: 1.4177, 1.4143
Resistance: 1.4205, 1.4248
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4205/EMA20 would reassert the week's uptrend
Loss of the 1.4177 swing low confirms a deeper correction off the 14m high
Canadian GDP Jun 30 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD ground to 14-month highs through the week on a soft-oil, hawkish-Fed mix, twice capping at 1.42476 — a double top. A sharp NY-session drop off that level pushed price back below EMA20, and it is now consolidating near 1.420 having recovered off the 1.41771 swing low. RSI(14) has unwound from overbought toward the mid-40s, in line with the stretched-longs read into US PCE.
Support: 1.41771, 1.41437, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4220, 1.42476
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.4220 (EMA20) reopens the 1.42476 double-top level
Loss of 1.41771 swing low confirms a lower-low and deeper pullback
US Michigan sentiment + Fed speakers Fri could materially shift this read
00:01 UTC
Uptrend stalling, pullback in play · RSI 44 · price 1.41998
Lower highs off the 1.4248 top after a week-long grind up.
USDCAD ground from Monday's 1.4144 low to 14-month highs near 1.4248 before a twin rejection capped progress; price then dropped ~80 pips into NY hours as DXY slipped off its tops post-PCE. It now sits below EMA20 around 1.4200, consolidating above the 1.4177 swing low with RSI back near 43.
Support: 1.4177, 1.41715, 1.41437
Resistance: 1.4225, 1.42476
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 1.4225 reopens the 1.4248 wk high
Failure to hold the 1.4177 swing low and 1.4172 week open confirms a lower low
Fri Michigan sentiment + Fed speakers (Williams/Kashkari) could shift the USD read