USDCAD ran from the April low near 1.3550 to a mid-June peak at 1.4247, then unwound into a tight 1.4060-1.4125 range where it has spent the last week near fair value, per the CAD digest. Price sits just below EMA20 and EMA50 on D1 with RSI mid-range, reflecting a paused trend rather than a fresh direction. Oil risk premium is providing a floor while wide Fed-BoC rate spreads cap upside.
Support: 1.4060, 1.4005
Resistance: 1.4125, 1.4247
What it said to watch
D1 close above 1.4125 range top reopens the path toward 1.4247
Break below 1.4060 range low exposes 1.4005 swing low
US Core PCE/GDP Thu and Canada GDP Fri could break the range
The uptrend off the mid-April low near 1.3631 carried USDCAD to a June high at 1.4248, but the last several weeks have been a corrective range grind between 1.4005 and 1.4125 near what the desk sees as fair value. Price now sits marginally below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI in the mid-40s, so weekly momentum has flattened; oil headlines and wide Fed-BoC rate spreads are pinning the pair. The July low at 1.4005 held twice, keeping the broader structure intact.
Support: 1.4060, 1.4005
Resistance: 1.4125, 1.4248
What it said to watch
Daily close above 1.4125 range top reopens the June high at 1.4248
Loss of 1.4005 july low confirms a lower low and breaks the range
Thu US Core PCE/GDP and Fri Canada GDP could shift this range read