USDCAD ground inside a 1.4060-1.4125 range all week until a sharp NY-session slide broke below 1.4060 and printed 1.4023, with USD softening after the in-line FOMC hold and firmer oil supporting CAD. Price has since stalled around 1.4040, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) pressed near 31. The prior range floor at 1.4060 now sits overhead as resistance after the breakdown.
Support: 1.4023, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4057, 1.4060
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4060 range floor would negate the breakdown
Loss of 1.4023 session low opens the path toward 1.4000
Thu 12:30 UTC US Core PCE/GDP cluster could materially shift this read
USDCAD held its 1.4060-1.4125 range all week until the FOMC hold at 3.75% triggered a sharp USD leg lower, dropping the pair through the 1.4060 floor into 1.4023 during the NY session. Price is now pinned near the session low, trading well below EMA20/EMA50 with RSI stretched into oversold territory after the one-bar impulse. The range that defined the week has been broken; 1.4060 now caps as prior support flips to resistance.
Support: 1.4023, 1.40388
Resistance: 1.4060, 1.4090, 1.4098
What it said to watch
Thu 12:30 UTC Core PCE/GDP cluster could materially shift this read
H1 close back above 1.4060 would repair the range break
Failure to hold 1.4023 confirms continuation lower
22:02 UTC
Range break lower, momentum down · RSI 33 · price 1.4044
Week-old range broken to the downside.
USDCAD ground sideways in a 1.4060-1.4125 range for most of the week before a sharp downside break in the NY session, dropping to a 1.4023 session low as the post-FOMC hold and stretched USD longs unwound. Price now sits at 1.4044, below the former range floor at 1.4060 which flips to resistance, with RSI(14) sagging into the low 30s. Both EMAs sit overhead after the impulse.
Support: 1.4023, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4060, 1.4090
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4060 invalidates the range break
Thu 12:30 UTC Core PCE/GDP cluster could materially shift this read
22:02 UTC
Range broken lower, momentum down · RSI 34 · price 1.4044
Breakdown below week-long range floor.
USDCAD held a tight 1.4060-1.4125 range all week before dropping hard through the range floor in the NY session, printing a session low at 1.4023 as post-FOMC dollar longs unwound after the Fed's in-line hold. Price is now well below both EMAs with RSI(14) pressed near 34; the prior support at 1.409 has flipped to overhead resistance. The 1.4060 floor is the key retest zone — an area to watch for rejection or reclaim.
Support: 1.4023, 1.4040
Resistance: 1.4060, 1.4090, 1.4125
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4060 range floor would negate the breakdown
Failure to reclaim 1.4060 keeps the lower-low structure intact
US Core PCE/GDP Thu 12:30 UTC and Canada GDP Fri could reset this read
21:03 UTC
Range broke lower, momentum down · RSI 32 · price 1.40461
Week-long range floor gave way late NY.
USDCAD ground sideways in a 1.4060-1.4125 range all week before the floor gave way in the late NY session, dropping sharply to 1.4023 and recovering to 1.4046. The break comes with a softer USD squaring into the FOMC hold and oil-supported CAD, leaving price below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) deep at ~32. The former range floor at 1.4060 now caps as resistance.
Support: 1.4023, 1.4040
Resistance: 1.4060, 1.4090, 1.4125
What it said to watch
Recovery back above 1.4060 would negate the range break and restore the week's range read
US Core PCE/GDP cluster Thu 12:30 UTC could materially reset this read
Failure to hold 1.4023 confirms the lower low and extends the breakdown
21:03 UTC
Range broke lower, momentum down · RSI 31 · price 1.40461
Downside range break, testing below floor.
USDCAD ground inside a 1.4060-1.4125 range all week before breaking sharply lower into the NY session, as the dollar trimmed gains post-FOMC and oil firmed. The move stretched to 1.4023 before a partial bounce, leaving price below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 31. The prior range floor at 1.4060 now caps as resistance.
Support: 1.4023, 1.4040
Resistance: 1.4060, 1.4090, 1.4125
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4060 would negate the downside break and restore the range
Failure to hold 1.4040/1.4023 confirms continuation lower
Thu 12:30 UTC US Core PCE/GDP cluster could materially shift this read
USDCAD chopped in a ~1.4056–1.4125 band since Monday's open before the NY session FOMC hold triggered a sharp leg down to 1.4023 as stretched USD longs unwound on the dovish-lean read. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 34 after bouncing off the 1.4023 low. The prior 1.4090 range floor now sits overhead as the immediate area to watch for a retest.
Support: 1.4023, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40574, 1.4090, 1.41284
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.40900 invalidates the breakdown read
Failure to hold 1.40230 confirms continuation lower
Thu Core PCE / GDP cluster and Fri BoJ could materially shift this read
19:02 UTC
Range broken lower, momentum down · RSI 31 · price 1.40384
Range break below week floor, fresh low.
USDCAD chopped inside a 1.4056–1.4125 band all week before breaking hard lower into 1.4038 on the final bar, tied to the FOMC decision and Warsh presser as stretched USD longs unwound. Price is now well below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI pressed into the low 30s, and the former 1.4056 range floor flips to resistance. The move was fast and one-directional, leaving little intraday structure beneath the fresh low.
Support: 1.40361, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4056, 1.4085, 1.41284
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.40560 range floor would negate the downside break
1.40000 psych is the next reference below the session low
Thu 12:30 UTC US Q2 GDP / Core PCE could extend or reverse this move
19:01 UTC
Range broke lower, momentum down · RSI 33 · price 1.40384
Range floor lost on FOMC drop.
USDCAD chopped a ~1.4056–1.4126 range all week before a sharp break lower into the FOMC/Warsh presser, the pair shedding ~50 pips in a single bar as stretched USD longs unwound on a hold that disappointed the hawkish camp. Price now sits at 1.4038, well below EMA20/EMA50, with RSI cratering into the low 30s. The former range floor at 1.4090 has flipped to resistance.
Support: 1.40361, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4090, 1.41284
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4090 negates the range break
Q2 GDP + Core PCE Thu 12:30 UTC could extend or reverse this move
Failure to hold 1.4036 opens the path toward the 1.4000 psych level
18:01 UTC
Range, breaking lower · RSI 35 · price 1.40652
Weekly range, testing lower bound.
USDCAD spent the week chopping in a ~1.4056-1.4126 band, tagging 1.41284 midweek before fading back under 1.4100 as the pre-FOMC USD bid eased and crude firmed on Mideast tensions. The final bar dropped sharply to 1.40633, driving price below both EMAs with RSI(14) rolling into the mid-30s. Price now sits on the lower edge of the week's range into the Fed decision.
Support: 1.40633, 1.4060
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4125, 1.41284
What it said to watch
FOMC statement at 18:00 GMT is imminent and can override this read
H1 close below 1.4060 confirms a lower low out of the range
Reclaim of 1.4100 puts price back inside the week's range
Since Monday's open USDCAD chopped in a 1.4056–1.4125 band, capped repeatedly below the 1.4125 range top. The final bar broke sharply below the 1.4090 range floor to 1.40652 into the FOMC decision, though on very thin volume, dragging RSI(14) toward oversold and pushing price below both EMA20 and EMA50. This is oil- and Fed-driven noise rather than a trend, with USD/CAD near fair value.
Support: 1.40633, 1.4056
Resistance: 1.40905, 1.4125, 1.41284
What it said to watch
FOMC statement at 18:00 GMT and BoC Summary can materially reset this read within the next bar
H1 close below 1.4056 confirms a lower low out of the range
Reclaim of the 1.40905 range floor negates the downside break
17:02 UTC
Range, rolling off week highs · RSI 44 · price 1.40943
Capped near 1.4128, drifting toward mid-range.
USDCAD chopped in a 1.4080–1.4128 band this week, tagging the 1.4128 week high midweek before rolling over as rebounding crude and pre-Fed USD softness lifted the Loonie. Price now sits just below EMA(20) around 1.4094, with RSI(14) mid-40s after the pullback from the highs. Scotiabank pegs fair value near 1.4115, and the pair is trading right through it into the FOMC.
Support: 1.40799, 1.4060
Resistance: 1.4101, 1.41284, 1.4125
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 GMT and presser 18:30 GMT are the dominant near-term catalyst
H1 close below 1.40799 swing low opens the 1.4060 range floor
Reclaim of 1.41010 recent cap points back to the 1.4128 week high
BoC Summary of Deliberations 17:30 UTC could shift the CAD read
USDCAD climbed off Monday's 1.40708 low to tag a week high at 1.41284 during the NY session, but the last day has faded that impulse back toward 1.4094, slipping under EMA20 and EMA50. The retreat sits roughly on the 61.8% pullback of the week's advance, with 1.4100 now acting as the immediate cap. Move comes into a knife-edge FOMC and BoC Summary of Deliberations, with a firmer CAD leaning on the crude rebound.
Support: 1.40799, 1.40708, 1.4060
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.41054, 1.41284
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 GMT and presser 18:30 GMT could materially reset this read within the hour
H1 close below 1.40799 confirms a lower-low and extends the pullback toward 1.40708
Reclaim of 1.41000 puts the 1.41054 prior high back in play
16:02 UTC
Rolling over from weekly high · RSI 43 · price 1.40879
Lower highs off 1.4128, holding week's range.
USDCAD rolled off the weekly high at 1.4128 and has spent a second session grinding lower toward 1.4090 as rebounding oil underpins CAD ahead of tonight's FOMC. Price now sits below EMA20 (~1.4102) with RSI(14) mid-40s, printing lower highs since Tuesday's peak while the broader week's 1.4060–1.4128 range still holds. The pullback has stalled near the 61.8% retracement of the Monday-Tuesday impulse.
Support: 1.4077, 1.4060
Resistance: 1.4102, 1.4128
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 GMT and Warsh presser could materially shift this read
Loss of 1.4060 weekly low confirms a downside range break
Reclaim of EMA20 ~1.4102 negates the lower-high sequence
Capped below 1.4128 week high, lower highs into range mid.
USDCAD spent the week pinned in a 1.4060–1.4125 band around fair value, tagging a 1.4128 high before rolling over as rebounding oil underpinned CAD and the dollar softened into tonight's FOMC. Price has slipped below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) and sits in the lower half of the range with RSI(14) sub-45, and the 1.4102 prior high has capped the last two bounces.
Support: 1.40799, 1.4060
Resistance: 1.4102, 1.41125, 1.41284
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 GMT plus press conference is the dominant catalyst and could reset this read
H1 close below 1.4060 confirms a range break lower
Reclaim of 1.4102 puts the 1.4125 range top back in play
15:02 UTC
Range, drifting lower off week high · RSI 44 · price 1.40908
1.4060–1.4128 weekly range, pullback from top.
USDCAD has spent the week pinned in a 1.4060–1.4128 range, tagging the 1.41284 week high into Monday's NY session before oil strength and pre-FOMC USD softness dragged it back to ~1.4091. Price now sits below EMA20 and EMA50 having faded off the 1.4125 range top; the 1.4100 psych level has capped the latest bounce. RSI(14) is mid-40s, reflecting a corrective drift rather than a fresh impulse.
Support: 1.40804, 1.4060
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4125, 1.41284
What it said to watch
FOMC decision in ~3h (18:00 GMT) plus Warsh presser could materially shift this read
Close below 1.40804 swing low opens the 1.4060 range low
Reclaim of 1.41000 psych and the 1.41250 range top needed to re-test the week high
15:01 UTC
Range, drifting lower · RSI 44 · price 1.40908
Pullback off week high, lower highs late week.
USDCAD has drifted lower for a second day off the 1.41284 week high toward the 1.408 session low, an oil-rebound and Fed-positioning move rather than a CAD re-rate. Price sits below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) cycling in the low 40s, holding the lower half of the week's 1.4066–1.4128 range around the ~1.4115 fair value cap. The late-NY bounce off 1.40799 stalled back near the 61.8% retrace of the mid-week rally.
Support: 1.4080, 1.40659, 1.4060
Resistance: 1.4115, 1.41284
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 GMT plus Warsh presser is the dominant catalyst and could materially shift this read
H1 close below 1.40659 confirms a lower low and breaks the week range
Reclaim of 1.41150 fair value re-opens the 1.41284 week high
14:02 UTC
Rolling off week high, momentum lower · RSI 42 · price 1.40812
Lower highs from week high, testing range floor.
USDCAD topped at the 1.41284 week high mid-week and has printed a sequence of lower highs since, capped repeatedly at the 1.41050 area. Price rolled lower into the NY session today, breaking back below EMA20/EMA50 and pressing the 1.40790 session low as oil's rebound gives CAD a modest edge. The move is FOMC positioning — sub-fair-value drift with net USD longs trimmed ahead of the decision.
Support: 1.4079, 1.4066
Resistance: 1.4105, 1.41284
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 GMT today is the dominant driver and could override this structure
H1 close below 1.40790 opens the path toward the 1.40660 week low
Reclaim of the 1.41050 cap would neutralise the lower-high sequence
14:02 UTC
Midweek uptrend fading, rolling over · RSI 42 · price 1.40812
Lower highs off week high, testing session low.
USDCAD climbed off Monday's 1.4066 low into a 1.4128 week high midweek before the oil-led CAD bid and softer USD dragged the pair back under both EMAs; price now sits at the 1.4080 session low with RSI mid-40s. Lower highs have formed since the 1.4128 peak and the 1.4102 pivot is capping bounces. Move is oil-driven rather than a BoC repricing, with the pair pinned near fair value into the FOMC.
Support: 1.40799, 1.4060
Resistance: 1.4102, 1.4125, 1.41284
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 GMT today is the dominant driver — could materially shift this read
H1 close below 1.4080 opens the 1.4060 week support
Reclaim of the 1.4102 ema pivot puts price back in the midweek range
13:02 UTC
Rolling over off week highs · RSI 45 · price 1.4094
Lower highs since peak, sub-1.4100.
USDCAD topped near 1.4126 mid-week and has bled lower into a second day of losses, now printing sub-1.4100 as WTI's rebound and a softer USD into the FOMC weigh on the pair. Price trades below both the EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) mid-40s, and the sequence of lower highs off 1.4126 defines the near-term structure. The 1.4085 swing low is the pivot capping the decline for now.
Support: 1.4085, 1.4060
Resistance: 1.4106, 1.4126
What it said to watch
FOMC decision today 18:00 GMT is the dominant driver and can reset this read
H1 close back above 1.4106 ema/pivot would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.4085 swing low opens the path toward 1.4060 support
13:02 UTC
Pullback within a broader range · RSI 44 · price 1.4094
Lower highs off Tuesday's peak, holding above session lows.
USDCAD rallied from Monday's 1.4066 base to a 1.4126 double top on Tuesday before rolling over as WTI's rebound on Middle East headlines and a softer USD into FOMC weighed. Since then price has ground out lower highs and now sits below both EMAs around 1.4094, RSI cycling in the low-40s. The 1.4084 session low is the near-term floor; the week high at 1.4126 caps.
Support: 1.4084, 1.4066, 1.4060
Resistance: 1.4105, 1.4126
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 GMT plus Warsh presser is the dominant catalyst and can override this read
H1 close back above 1.4105 lower-highs line reopens 1.4126
Failure to hold 1.4084 confirms a lower low toward 1.4066
12:02 UTC
Range-bound, no clear trend · RSI 50 · price 1.40999
Consolidation between weekly high and low.
USDCAD has carved a tight range around 1.4100 all week, capped near the 1.4125 week high after Tuesday's push to 1.41284 and floored around the 1.4088 day low, with the loonie steadied by rebounding oil. Price is coiling on either side of EMA20 with RSI(14) flat near 50, reflecting positioning ahead of the FOMC decision. The 1.4060 week low marks the lower bound of the consolidation.
Support: 1.4088, 1.4060
Resistance: 1.4125, 1.4128
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 GMT today is the dominant catalyst for this read
H1 close above 1.4125 opens the path back toward the 1.41284 range top
Loss of 1.4088 exposes the 1.4060 week low
12:01 UTC
Sideways, range-bound · RSI 50 · price 1.40999
Range around 1.4100, lower highs off week peak.
USDCAD has coiled between 1.4086 and 1.4128 for a second day, pinning near 1.4100 as USD bulls trimmed exposure into the FOMC decision and rebounding oil underpinned the Loonie. The week peaked at 1.4128 mid-window before easing back through EMA(50), with RSI(14) flat around the midline showing no momentum edge. Price sits right on EMA(20) as the range top continues to cap.
Support: 1.4086, 1.4060
Resistance: 1.4125, 1.4128
What it said to watch
FOMC decision today 18:00 GMT is the dominant catalyst and can break this range either way
H1 close above 1.4125 opens the path back toward the 1.4128 week high
Loss of 1.4086 range low exposes the 1.4060 pivot
11:02 UTC
Range, drifting lower off week high · RSI 44 · price 1.4098
Capped below week high, lower highs forming.
USDCAD pushed to a week high of 1.4128 into Tuesday's NY session before rolling over, and has since drifted back to pivot around 1.4098 at the EMA20. Rebounding oil kept the Loonie firm while USD bulls trimmed exposure ahead of the FOMC, leaving price pinned near the 1.4100 fair-value zone. Lower highs since the 1.4128 peak show supply capping each bounce, with RSI(14) hovering in the mid-40s.
Support: 1.4085, 1.4060, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4116, 1.4128, 1.4125
What it said to watch
FOMC decision today 18:00 GMT is the dominant near-term catalyst for direction
H1 close above 1.4116 reopens the 1.4128 week high
Loss of 1.4085 swing low confirms extension toward 1.4060 support
11:01 UTC
Uptrend faded, now ranging · RSI 46 · price 1.4098
Consolidation below week high after failed push.
USDCAD ran from Monday's 1.4066 low to a two-week high at 1.4128 into Tuesday's NY session before rejecting and drifting back to the 1.4100 fair-value area, where rebounding oil is underpinning the Loonie. Price is now pinned around EMA20 with RSI(14) mid-range and a series of lower highs capping since the peak. The 1.4125 resistance and 1.4060 support frame this week's range ahead of the FOMC decision.
Support: 1.4060, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4125, 1.41284
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 GMT is the dominant near-term catalyst and could break this range either way
H1 close above 1.4125 reopens the 1.4128 week high
Loss of 1.4060 support confirms a lower low and shifts the read lower
10:02 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 54 · price 1.4103
Range-bound 1.4060-1.4125, coiling into FOMC.
USDCAD has been boxed in a tight 1.4060-1.4125 band all week, printing a high at 1.4128 before fading back toward the 1.4100 pivot that Scotia flags as fair value. Price is recovering off the 1.4084 swing low and sits marginally above both EMAs with RSI mid-range near 54 — a classic pre-event coil. The move is an FOMC call rather than a CAD story, with wide US-Canada rate spreads keeping the Loonie capped.
Support: 1.4084, 1.4060, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4125, 1.4128
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 GMT + press conference is the dominant catalyst — likely to break this range
H1 close above 1.4125 range top opens the path back to the 1.4128 week high
Failure to hold 1.4060 range floor confirms a downside break toward 1.4000 psych
10:01 UTC
Range-bound, neutral · RSI 52 · price 1.4103
Sideways consolidation in weekly range.
USDCAD has been pinned in a 1.4060-1.4125 band all week, consolidating around 1.4100 as USD longs were trimmed into FOMC and firmer oil underpinned CAD. Price probed the 1.4128 week high mid-week but lower highs since have pulled it back to the middle of the range, with RSI(14) flat near 50. Sits just above EMA(20) but below EMA(50) — momentum is neutral.
Support: 1.4085, 1.4060
Resistance: 1.4125, 1.4128
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 GMT is the dominant catalyst and could break this range either way
H1 close above 1.4125 range top opens the path back to the 1.4128 week high
Loss of 1.4085 recent low exposes the 1.4060 week low
09:02 UTC
Rangebound, easing off highs · RSI 44 · price 1.40985
Range 1.4060-1.4125, pullback from weekly high.
USDCAD has held a tight 1.4060-1.4125 band all week, pivoting on oil and pre-FOMC USD positioning. Price pushed to a 1.41284 weekly high midweek but supply capped there and it has drifted back under the 1.4100 pivot, now tracking just below EMA(20) with RSI cycling in the mid-40s. Move remains muted as traders sit on hands ahead of the Fed.
Support: 1.4060, 1.40659
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4125, 1.41284
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Powell presser 18:30 UTC are the dominant driver — a dovish hold opens the path toward 1.4060 support
Hourly close back above 1.4125 range top would re-open the weekly high at 1.41284
Loss of 1.4060 range low confirms a downside break of the week's range
09:02 UTC
Range, drifting off week high · RSI 47 · price 1.40985
1.4060-1.4128 range, pullback from top.
USDCAD has held a tight 1.4060-1.4128 band all week, pivoting on oil and USD swings. The pair pushed to 1.4128 into midweek before rejection there dragged it back toward the 1.4100 pivot, and it now sits just under EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) cooling through the mid-40s. Price is consolidating on the defensive for a second session as traders sit on hands ahead of the FOMC decision.
Support: 1.4086, 1.4066, 1.4060
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4125, 1.4128
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and BoC Summary 17:30 UTC are the dominant near-term drivers
H1 close above 1.4128 week high breaks the range top
Failure to hold 1.4060 range low confirms a lower-low
Oil direction feeds directly into the Loonie leg
08:02 UTC
Pullback within this-week's range · RSI 43 · price 1.40941
Capped at weekly high, lower highs since.
USDCAD rallied off the week's open near 1.4085 to tag the 1.41284 week high mid-window, where the pair was rejected and has since carved lower highs back below the 1.4100 round number. Price now sits under EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) cooling into the low-40s, and CAD found intraday relief on a softer dollar even as soft oil keeps rallies capped. FOMC tonight is the dominant catalyst.
Support: 1.4084, 1.40659, 1.4060
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.41284
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the 1.4100 round number reopens the 1.41284 week high
Loss of the 1.40840 swing low exposes the 1.40659 week low
08:01 UTC
Pulling back from week high, momentum soft · RSI 44 · price 1.40941
Lower highs off 1.4128, holding above swing low.
USDCAD rallied into Tuesday's NY session to a week high at 1.4128 then rolled over, printing lower highs and slipping back under the EMA20 which now caps near 1.4100. Price is consolidating in the 1.409s just above the 1.4084 swing low as soft oil and pre-FOMC caution keep the pair pinned near two-week highs. RSI(14) has cooled into the mid-40s alongside the fade.
Support: 1.4084, 1.4060
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4125
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC is the dominant catalyst for this read
H1 close back above the EMA20 near 1.4100 reopens the 1.4125 week high
Loss of 1.4084 swing low exposes the 1.4060 40-day ma pivot
07:01 UTC
Uptrend stalling, in pullback · RSI 44 · price 1.40974
Rolled off week high, lower highs forming.
USDCAD opened the week near 1.4075 and rallied through the Monday-Tuesday NY sessions to a week high at 1.4128, but has since rolled over into a series of lower highs and now sits at 1.4097, just under EMA20 and right on the 61.8% retrace of that impulse. The 1.4110 resistance band has capped the last two bounces while price holds above the 1.4084 session low. CAD stays pinned near two-week lows by soft oil, but positioning is light into today's FOMC.
Support: 1.40842, 1.4060, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.41284
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC + press conf 18:30 UTC is the dominant catalyst for this read
BoC Summary of Deliberations 17:30 UTC could shift CAD tone
H1 close below 1.4084 session low confirms a lower low
Reclaim of 1.4110 resistance negates the pullback
07:01 UTC
Uptrend stalling, pulling back · RSI 44 · price 1.40974
Lower highs off the weekly high, holding a range.
USDCAD rallied off 1.4066 into midweek but capped twice near 1.4128 for a double top before rolling over into the NY session. Price now sits at 1.4097, back below EMA20, roughly a 50% retrace of the week's advance with RSI(14) cycling in the low-40s. The 1.4086 swing low is the first floor; softer oil keeps CAD pinned while the pair hugs the 1.41 fair-value zone.
Support: 1.40857, 1.4060
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.41284
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and BoC Summary 17:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the 1.4110 pivot reclaims EMA20 and negates the pullback
Break below 1.4086 swing low opens the path to 1.4060 support
06:02 UTC
Pulling back from weekly high · RSI 42 · price 1.4088
Lower highs since Tuesday peak.
USDCAD rose from Monday's open to a Tuesday peak near 1.4128, where two attempts stalled to form a double top before rolling over. Price now sits below EMA20 with RSI softening into the low 40s as the USD eased ahead of tonight's FOMC. Rejection at 1.4128 has capped the week; 1.4060 is the nearest structural floor below.
Support: 1.4060, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4105, 1.4128
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Reclaim of 1.4105 EMA20 would neutralise the pullback
H1 close below 1.4060 confirms a deeper leg lower
06:02 UTC
Uptrend stalling, pulling back · RSI 41 · price 1.4088
Retrace from weekly high toward swing low.
USDCAD ground higher through midweek to a rejection at 1.4128 before drifting lower across the last session, now probing the 1.4086 swing low which lines up with the 61.8% retrace of the week's advance. Price sits below EMA20 (~1.4105) with RSI(14) around 41, reflecting the softer dollar easing off recent highs ahead of the FOMC. Two-week-high consolidation is intact while 1.4086 holds.
Support: 1.4086, 1.4060
Resistance: 1.4105, 1.4128
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC is the dominant driver and could reshape this read
H1 close below 1.4086 confirms a lower low and opens 1.4060
Reclaim of EMA20 near 1.4105 needed to re-challenge the 1.4128 weekly high
05:03 UTC
Uptrend stalling, pulling back · RSI 41 · price 1.40899
Retrace off weekly high toward mid-range.
USDCAD ran from the week's 1.4056 base to a 1.4128 high before easing back toward 1.409, with the Loonie capped by soft oil and wide rate spreads. Rejection at 1.4128 has stalled the advance and price now sits below EMA20 with RSI(14) cooling into the low 40s. The 1.4050 'fair value' zone is the pivot; below it, 1.4086 and the week open at 1.4064 come into focus.
Support: 1.40864, 1.40788, 1.40639
Resistance: 1.4105, 1.41284
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC is the dominant driver — a dovish hold could pull spot back toward 1.4064
H1 close back above 1.4105 fair value would reassert the uptrend toward 1.4128
Loss of 1.4086 swing low confirms a deeper retrace
05:02 UTC
Uptrend stalling, pulling back · RSI 42 · price 1.40899
Rounded top below week high, drifting lower.
USDCAD pressed to a week high of 1.41284 through Tuesday's NY session before rolling over into a rounded top, and price has since slipped back below EMA20 with RSI(14) fading toward 40. The 1.4115 fair-value zone capped the latest bounce and spot is now grinding toward the 1.40857 swing low as the market pins ahead of FOMC.
Support: 1.40857, 1.4060
Resistance: 1.4115, 1.41284
What it said to watch
FOMC statement 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 are the dominant driver for this leg
H1 close back above 1.4115 fair value reopens the 1.41284 week high
Loss of 1.40857 swing low confirms a lower low toward 1.4060
USDCAD rallied from Monday's 1.4064 open to a week high at 1.4125, but twin highs near 1.4126 were rejected and price has since slipped back below the H1 EMA(20) around 1.4103 with RSI in the mid-40s. The pullback is so far holding above the 1.4086 swing low, keeping spot in a bullish consolidation near two-week highs. FOMC at 18:00 UTC is the dominant driver via the USD leg into the next sessions.
Support: 1.4086, 1.4060, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4106, 1.4125
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via the USD leg
H1 close below 1.4086 confirms a lower-low and deepens the pullback
Reclaim of 1.4106 puts the 1.4125 week high back in play
Bullish consolidation rolling over below week high.
USDCAD climbed from Monday's ~1.4056 open to a two-week high at 1.41284 before stalling, with twin rejections near 1.4126/1.4128 forming a double-top cap. Price has since slipped below EMA20 (~1.4105) and RSI(14) has cooled toward 42 as the week's advance loses steam into the FOMC. The 1.40864 swing low is the immediate demand shelf, aligned with the 1.4060/1.4064 weekly-open zone below.
Support: 1.40864, 1.4064, 1.4060
Resistance: 1.41055, 1.41284, 1.4125
What it said to watch
FOMC at 18:00 UTC is the dominant driver for the next bars and could reshape this read
H1 close below 1.40864 confirms a lower-low from this week's range
Reclaim of 1.41284 reopens the two-week high
03:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading · RSI 43 · price 1.40947
Bullish consolidation rolling over near week highs.
USDCAD gapped higher over the weekend near 1.4080 and rallied through the week to a 1.41284 week high before easing back; price now sits below EMA(20) with RSI(14) cycling down through the mid-40s. The pullback follows repeated rejection at the 1.4125–1.41284 zone, keeping the pair in bullish consolidation near two-week highs as a soft dollar and weak oil offset each other into the FOMC.
Support: 1.4086, 1.40708, 1.4060
Resistance: 1.41284, 1.4125
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC dominate the next bars via the USD leg
Loss of 1.4086 week low opens the path toward the 1.4073 gap low
H1 close back above 1.41284 week high revives the up-leg
03:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading · RSI 43 · price 1.40947
Pullback from week high after multi-day rise.
USDCAD climbed steadily from Monday's open into midweek, printing the week high at 1.41284 as the dollar stayed bid into tonight's FOMC. Price has since rolled over below EMA20 and is easing back toward the 50% retracement of that move near 1.4092. Consolidating near two-week highs, RSI(14) has cooled into the low-40s.
Support: 1.4086, 1.4060
Resistance: 1.4125, 1.41284
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC (Warsh presser 18:30 UTC) is the dominant driver and could reset this read
H1 close below 1.4086 confirms a lower low and deepens the pullback
Reclaim of 1.4125 reopens the 1.41284 week high
02:02 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back · RSI 44 · price 1.40992
Fade from week high into fib retracement.
USDCAD rallied from Monday's ~1.4065 open to a week high at 1.41284 as the Loonie stayed capped by soft oil and dovish BoC pricing. The pair rejected that high and has faded to around 1.40992, sitting near the 38.2% retracement of the week's advance and back below EMA20. Momentum has cooled with RSI in the mid-40s as the move stalls into the FOMC session.
Support: 1.40857, 1.4060, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4111, 1.41284
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC + Warsh presser is the dominant catalyst for the next bars
H1 close below the 1.40857 swing low opens the 1.4060 week low
Reclaim of 1.41110 prior high would re-engage the week high at 1.41284
USDCAD rebuilt from Monday's ~1.4060 base toward fresh weekly highs at 1.4128 into the NY session Tuesday, with the dollar bid broadly into FOMC and CAD capped by soft oil. That 1.4128 area rejected two attempts and price has since faded back to 1.4099, slipping under the EMA20 near 1.4108 as RSI cools toward the mid-40s. The higher-low structure off 1.4086 still holds for now.
Support: 1.4086, 1.4060, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4108, 1.4128
What it said to watch
FOMC decision today 18:00 UTC + Warsh presser 18:30 UTC is the dominant catalyst for this read
H1 close above 1.4128 resumes the uptrend toward the 1.4125 resistance zone
Failure to hold 1.4086 swing low confirms a lower-low and breaks the week's higher-low sequence
Consolidation below week high, pulling back from resistance.
USDCAD ground higher through the week from the 1.4056 base into a 1.41284 peak, consistent with the firm-USD, capped-CAD backdrop as oil faded. Two attempts at 1.4126-1.4128 were rejected and price has since slipped back below EMA(20), settling near the 38.2% retracement of the week's impulse around 1.4100. RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-40s as the pullback develops.
Support: 1.40857, 1.4064
Resistance: 1.41284, 1.4110
What it said to watch
FOMC statement + rate decision at 18:00 UTC today can materially shift this read
H1 close below 1.40857 confirms a lower-low and breaks the higher-low sequence
Reclaim of 1.41284 reopens the path to continuation
USDCAD climbed steadily from the weekly open near 1.4074 to a week high at 1.4128, with the dominant leg carried through the NY session mid-week as CAD stayed capped by wide rate spreads and softer oil. Price has since rolled back into a consolidation below 1.4113 and now trades under EMA20 near 1.4099, with RSI cycling back toward neutral. The 1.4090 recent low is the first shelf holding the pullback.
Support: 1.4090, 1.4074, 1.4060
Resistance: 1.4113, 1.4128
What it said to watch
FOMC statement + rate decision today 18:00 UTC is the dominant driver and can reset this read
H1 close below 1.4090 exposes the weekly open at 1.4074
Reclaim of 1.4113 consolidation top puts the 1.4128 week high back in play
00:02 UTC
Uptrend stalling into consolidation · RSI 52 · price 1.41079
Range near two-week highs after week impulse.
USDCAD climbed off Monday's 1.4056 low to tag a week high at 1.41284, then settled into a tight consolidation between 1.4086 and 1.4125 as softer oil and a firm dollar keep the pair pinned near two-week highs. RSI(14) has cooled back to the mid-50s after the pullback, and price is hovering right on its EMA(20). The Loonie backdrop stays soft, but momentum has flattened ahead of Wednesday's FOMC.
Support: 1.4086, 1.4060
Resistance: 1.4125, 1.41284
What it said to watch
FOMC rate decision Wed 18:00 UTC is the dominant driver and can reset this read
H1 close above 1.4125 reopens the week high at 1.41284
Failure to hold 1.4086 confirms a lower low and breaks the rising support
USDCAD ground higher through the week off Monday's 1.4056 low, tagging the 1.4128 week high before stalling into a tight range around 1.4110. CAD stayed capped by wide rate spreads and softer oil, but the last two sessions show consolidation rather than continuation, with RSI(14) cycling near 50 and price hugging EMA(20). FOMC Wednesday is the dominant near-term driver.
Support: 1.4086, 1.4074, 1.4060
Resistance: 1.4128, 1.4125
What it said to watch
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC + BoC Summary 17:30 UTC could reset this range