USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Thursday, 30 July 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:02 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating at lows · RSI 42 · price 1.40042
Lower highs, broke week's floor.
USDCAD spent most of the week pinned below 1.4110 before two NY-session sell-offs cracked the range, driving price through the 1.4055 floor to a fresh weekly low at 1.3990 as the post-FOMC softer USD read weighed. Price now consolidates just above 1.4000 with RSI(14) around 41 after basing near the low, holding below both EMA(20) and EMA(50). The 1.4055–1.4067 lower-high zone caps recovery attempts.
Support: 1.39904, 1.39948, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40546, 1.40674, 1.4110
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4055 would neutralise the breakout read
Failure to hold 1.3990 confirms continuation lower
Canada GDP Fri Jul 31 12:30 UTC could reset this range
US ECI / Michigan data Fri 14:00 UTC a two-way USD risk
23:01 UTC
Downtrend, stalling near lows · RSI 44 · price 1.40042
Lower highs and lower lows, basing at 1.4000.
USDCAD spent the week pinned below 1.4110 before a two-stage slide through the NY sessions broke the 1.4025 floor and printed a 1.3990 week low, aligned with the softer USD post-FOMC. Price is now basing just above 1.4000 with RSI(14) recovering off oversold, and remains below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) that capped the last bounce near 1.4055.
Support: 1.3990, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.4110
What it said to watch
Canada GDP Fri 12:30 UTC could break this 1.4000 base either way
H1 close below 1.3990 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 1.4055 needed to challenge the descending highs
USDCAD broke below the week-long 1.4000-1.4110 range as the USD softened on the hawkish Fed hold and soft Q2 GDP/core PCE prints, driving the pair from 1.41 to a sub-1.3990 low. Price is now consolidating around the 1.4000 round number, sitting below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) recovering off oversold. Prior range floor near 1.4055 now caps as resistance after the breakdown.
Support: 1.39904, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.4110
What it said to watch
Canada GDP Fri 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
H1 close back above 1.4055 would neutralise the downside break
USDCAD spent Monday–Wednesday pinned just under 1.411 before two sharp down-legs into the NY session sliced through the 1.40–1.41 range floor, printing a week low at 1.3990. Price is now basing above the 1.40 handle with RSI(14) lifting off oversold as the fresh lows failed to extend — a mild bullish divergence. The move tracks the softer-USD lean after the hawkish Fed hold and in-line core PCE.
Support: 1.3995, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.4110
What it said to watch
Canada GDP Fri 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Hourly close back above 1.4055 negates the downside range break
Failure to hold 1.3990 confirms a lower low
21:03 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating near lows · RSI 42 · price 1.40098
Lower highs, lower lows after range break.
USDCAD spent most of the week pinned below 1.4110 before breaking the 1.40-1.41 floor in two sharp legs, the second accelerating through the NY session as the softer US GDP/PCE prints pressured the dollar. Price is now consolidating just under 1.4010, holding above the 1.3990 week low with RSI(14) recovering off oversold. Both EMAs sit overhead after the decline.
Support: 1.3990, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.4110
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4055 would neutralise the lower-high structure
Loss of 1.3990 confirms a fresh lower low
Canada GDP Fri 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
USDCAD sat pinned in the 1.4000-1.4110 range most of the week before a two-leg NY-session drop Thursday sheared through the floor, printing fresh weekly lows near 1.3990 as soft US GDP (1.5%) and cool core PCE pressured the dollar. Price now consolidates just above the 1.4000 psych level, trading below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) around 41. The prior 1.4055 floor is the immediate overhead reference.
Support: 1.39904, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.4110, 1.41284
What it said to watch
Canada GDP Fri 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
H1 close back above 1.4055 negates the range break
Failure to hold 1.3990 confirms continuation lower
20:02 UTC
Downtrend, at week low · RSI 39 · price 1.40037
Lower highs, lower lows; broke below 1.4000.
USDCAD trended lower across the week, sliding from the 1.4125 area through the 1.4000 psych level as soft US GDP and core PCE prints pressured the dollar. Two sharp NY-session down legs drove the break, leaving price below both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI holding in the high-30s. The 1.4000-1.3990 zone — the week's floor and range low — is now under test.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3990
Resistance: 1.4032, 1.4055, 1.4110
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4055 negates the lower-highs read
Sustained loss of 1.3990 confirms range break lower
Canada GDP Fri Jul 31 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
USDCAD spent the week pinned in a 1.4000–1.4110 range before two sharp NY-session flushes cracked the base, the last dropping the pair below 1.4000 to a fresh week low at 1.39904. The move tracks a broadly softer USD after the FOMC hawkish hold and the Q2 GDP miss, with price now trading well below EMA20 and EMA50 and RSI(14) sitting near 36. The final bounce off 1.3990 has only reclaimed the round-number handle.
Support: 1.4000, 1.39904
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.4110
What it said to watch
Canada GDP MoM Fri 12:30 GMT — a beat could press the 1.4000/1.3990 support zone further
Failure to hold 1.39904 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
H1 close back above 1.4055 negates the latest lower high
USDCAD broke below the week-long 1.40-1.41 range during NY hours, extending a clean downtrend as the dollar faded on soft US GDP and cooler core PCE. Price is pinned below both EMAs with RSI(14) oversold after two sharp NY-session legs down through 1.4050 and 1.4020. The 1.4000 round level, defended all week as support, now caps rebounds.
Support: 1.3990, 1.3980
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40177, 1.4055
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.4000 would negate the range break read
H1 close below 1.3990 confirms a fresh lower low
Canada GDP Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD spent most of the week pinned in the 1.40-1.41 band before breaking the range top's mirror floor; the pair sliced through the 1.4000 round number into the NY session as the USD faded on soft Q2 GDP and cooler core PCE. Price now trades sub-1.3997 at fresh weekly lows with RSI(14) near 31 and holding well below both EMAs. The session low at 1.3990 is the immediate line, with 1.4055 and the 1.4110 range top marking overhead supply.
Support: 1.3990, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.4110
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4000 round number would neutralise the range break
Reclaim of 1.4055 prior swing needed to challenge the downtrend read
Canada GDP Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:02 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating · RSI 32 · price 1.39942
Range break lower, fresh lower lows.
USDCAD held the 1.40-1.41 range for most of the week before breaking down through 1.4000 in the NY session, pressured by soft US GDP and benign core PCE prints that unwound part of the dollar's post-FOMC recovery. Price now trades sub-1.4000 with RSI(14) near 31 and well below both EMA(20) and EMA(50); 1.4000 has flipped from range floor to overhead resistance. The recent low at 1.3992 is the immediate structural marker after the impulsive leg down.
Support: 1.3992, 1.3950, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4055, 1.4110
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4000 would negate the range break
Failure to hold 1.3992 confirms continuation toward 1.3950
Canada GDP MoM (Fri 12:30 GMT) could materially shift this read
USDCAD spent most of the week pinned in a 1.4000-1.4110 range before breaking down through 1.4000 during today's NY session, pressured by the soft US core PCE (0.1% MoM) and the Q2 GDP miss. The move stacked lower lows into 1.3992 with RSI(14) pushed into oversold, price now trading well below both EMA(20) and EMA(50). The 1.4000 round number, defended all week, now sits overhead as resistance.
Support: 1.39916
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.40177, 1.4050
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.40000 would invalidate the breakdown read
Canada GDP MoM Fri 12:30 GMT (f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 1.39916 session low confirms downside continuation
USDCAD broke hard through the 1.4000 floor that had contained the week's 1.40-1.41 range, sliding to fresh lows near 1.3992 into the NY session as the softer-USD tilt from a hawkish Fed hold plus miss-heavy PCE/GDP data reasserted. Price trades well below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI stretched into oversold territory, and the two-day slide has now cleared the prior 1.4020 base. The break through the psych level flips 1.4000-1.4012 into overhead resistance.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3992
Resistance: 1.4012, 1.4055, 1.4110
What it said to watch
H1 reclaim above 1.4000 would invalidate the range break
Canada GDP MoM (f/c 0.2%) Fri could materially shift this read
Failure to hold 1.3992 extends the lower-low sequence
USDCAD spent Monday-Wednesday pinned in the 1.40-1.41 range before breaking down through 1.4000 in the NY session, accelerating lower after the soft US PCE/GDP prints kept the post-FOMC USD tilt heavy. Price printed a fresh low at 1.3992 with RSI(14) in oversold territory below 30 and holding well beneath EMA20 and EMA50. The 1.4000 round number, prior support, now caps as the first upside barrier.
Support: 1.3992, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4055, 1.4110
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4000 round number would invalidate the range break
Canada GDP MoM Fri 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Failure to hold 1.3900 psych opens further downside extension
16:02 UTC
Downtrend, range floor broken · RSI 31 · price 1.40014
Week-long 1.40-1.41 range broken lower, printing fresh lows.
USDCAD spent the week pinned inside a 1.40-1.41 range but lost the 1.4000 floor into the NY session, driven by a softer dollar after the confusing hawkish-hold FOMC and mixed US data. Price now trades at fresh lows around 1.4001 with RSI stretched below 32 and both EMAs capping overhead. The prior range midpoint and 1.4055 bounce high are now the reference points for any recovery attempt.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3998
Resistance: 1.40546, 1.4110
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 1.40546 would negate the range-floor break
Sustained trade below 1.4000 confirms the lower low
Canada GDP MoM Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD broke down through the week's 1.4000-1.4110 range during the NY session, sliding from the 1.4128 area to a fresh 1.4001 low as the softer US growth read and a confusing hawkish-hold Fed weighed on the dollar. Price now sits pinned at the 1.4000 psych level with RSI(14) stretched into oversold and well below both EMA(20) and EMA(50). The prior range floor at 1.4055 flipped to resistance on the way down.
Support: 1.4000, 1.40012
Resistance: 1.40566, 1.4111
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4055 negates the range break
Hold below 1.4000 confirms the lower low
Canada GDP Fri 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
15:02 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows · RSI 34 · price 1.40166
Range break lower, lower highs/lows.
USD/CAD broke below the week-old 1.40–1.41 range into the NY session, pressing the 1.4003 range low as post-FOMC USD softness weighed on the pair. Price is trading below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 34; the 1.4000 psych level is the last floor before fresh lows. Prior bounce at 1.4055 and Monday's weekly open near 1.4085 now cap rebounds.
Support: 1.4003, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.4085, 1.4110
What it said to watch
Canada GDP Fri 12:30 UTC could probe or reject 1.4000
Hourly close below 1.4000 confirms lower-low continuation
Recovery above 1.4055 puts price back inside the prior range
USDCAD broke the week-long 1.4000-1.4110 range floor through the NY session, printing a fresh week low at 1.40033 as the dollar stayed soft post-FOMC on the GDP miss and softer core PCE. Price sits well below EMA20 with RSI(14) pressed into oversold near 31, confirming a lower-low structure after two-day supply capped rallies at 1.4055-1.4066. Prior range support around 1.4070 has now flipped to overhead resistance.
Support: 1.40033, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40546, 1.4075, 1.4110
What it said to watch
Canada GDP MoM Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
Failure to hold 1.4000 confirms extension of the lower-low
H1 close back above 1.4055 would neutralise the breakdown
USDCAD spent the week pinned in a 1.4090-1.4128 range before a sharp NY-session leg lower today snapped the floor, driving price to 1.40054 at the 1.4000 psych mark. The USD came off post-FOMC as the Q2 GDP miss and softer core PCE undercut the dollar, and the prior range floor near 1.4090 now caps as resistance. RSI(14) sits near 30 as the drop extends, with price well below both EMA(20) and EMA(50).
Support: 1.4000, 1.40045
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.4090, 1.41284
What it said to watch
Canada GDP MoM Fri 12:30 GMT (f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
H1 close below 1.4000 psych opens the path to lower lows
Reclaim of 1.40550 bounce high needed to ease downside pressure
14:02 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating · RSI 28 · price 1.40054
Range break, lower highs and lower lows.
USDCAD spent most of the week pinned just below the 1.4100-1.4125 barrier before breaking down hard through 1.4100 during the NY session, extending to the 1.4000 psych level as the USD softened post-FOMC and the Q2 GDP miss weighed. The decline is now well below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) pressed into oversold territory. Prior range floor at 1.4100 now caps as resistance.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3995
Resistance: 1.4066, 1.4100, 1.41284
What it said to watch
Canada GDP MoM Fri 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
H1 close below 1.4000 opens the path toward the 1.3995 range low
Reclaim of 1.4100 would negate the range break
13:02 UTC
Downtrend after range break, consolidating · RSI 46 · price 1.4055
Broke below week's range, now basing above 1.4023.
USDCAD spent most of the week pinned in a tight 1.4080-1.4125 range before a sharp US-session drop through 1.4090 during the FOMC/Warsh fallout, printing a one-week low at 1.4023 as the dollar tumbled post-presser. Price has since recovered into a 1.4040-1.4066 base, sitting below both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) cycling in the mid-40s. The retrace stalled ahead of 1.4066 and the old range top at 1.4110 remains the broader cap.
Support: 1.4023, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4066, 1.4110
What it said to watch
Canada GDP (MoM) Fri 12:30 UTC could shift this read materially
H1 close below 1.4023 exposes the 1.4000 psych zone
Reclaim of 1.4110 range top would negate the downside break
13:02 UTC
Downtrend after range break, now consolidating · RSI 47 · price 1.4055
USDCAD held a tight 1.41 range all week before a sharp ~50-pip flush during the NY session yesterday broke it down to a 1.4023 low, coinciding with the softer post-FOMC USD tone. Price has since based between 1.404 and 1.406, hovering just above EMA(20) but capped well under the broken 1.4110 range floor. RSI(14) sits mid-40s, reflecting a stalled recovery rather than fresh momentum.
Support: 1.4037, 1.4023, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4067, 1.4110, 1.4128
What it said to watch
Canada GDP tomorrow 12:30 UTC could shift this read materially
H1 close back above 1.4067 would reclaim the broken range
Failure to hold 1.4037 exposes the 1.4023 one-week low and 1.4000
Broke below week's range, basing under prior support.
USDCAD spent the week trapped in a 1.4060–1.4125 range before a sharp NY-session break lower yesterday drove it to 1.4023, snapping the multi-day floor. Price has since stalled below the 1.4066 breakdown pivot and sits under both EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) compressed in the low-40s after the flush. The bounce high at 1.40662 aligns with the 50% retrace of the drop and has capped recovery attempts.
Support: 1.4023, 1.4036
Resistance: 1.40662, 1.40905, 1.4110
What it said to watch
US GDP + core PCE cluster in ~35min could materially shift this read
H1 close back above 1.40662 negates the breakdown
Failure to hold 1.4023 confirms a fresh lower-low
12:02 UTC
Downtrend after range breakdown, now consolidating · RSI 42 · price 1.40405
Week's floor broken, tight base below EMA20/50.
USD/CAD sliced through the week's 1.4060 floor during the NY session yesterday, dropping ~50 pips to 1.4023 as post-FOMC dollar selling and Mideast-driven oil bid weighed. Price has since based in a tight 1.4033–1.4067 band, holding below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) recovering off oversold to the low-40s. The prior week range top no longer applies; the reaction low at 1.4023 and the consolidation floor near 1.4033 are the active reference points.
Support: 1.4033, 1.4023, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40674
What it said to watch
US GDP + Core PCE cluster at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
H1 close back above 1.40674 negates the breakdown structure
Failure to hold 1.40230 confirms a lower-low and extends the downside
11:02 UTC
Downtrend after range break · RSI 42 · price 1.40415
Range break lower, basing near week low.
USDCAD broke lower out of this week's 1.40-1.41 range on the post-FOMC drop late yesterday, printing a low at 1.4023 before basing around 1.4040. Price has since drifted back to that base beneath EMA20 (~1.4051), with RSI(14) holding in the low 40s and the 1.4067 bounce high capping attempts since. Rate-spread narrative keeps the pair pinned near the lower edge of the prior range.
Support: 1.40395, 1.4023
Resistance: 1.4051, 1.40674
What it said to watch
US GDP + Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 1.4040 base opens the 1.4023 spike low
Reclaim of the 1.4067 swing high would negate the downside break
11:01 UTC
Downtrend after range break, consolidating · RSI 42 · price 1.40415
Broke below week's 1.41 range, basing near lows.
USDCAD spent the week pinned near 1.41 before a sharp post-FOMC leg lower to 1.4023, breaking cleanly out of the range; the divided 9-3 hawkish hold left the pair whipping either side of 1.4050. Price now consolidates 1.403–1.057 below both EMA(20) and EMA(50), with the 1.4066 bounce high capping the recovery and RSI(14) holding in the low-40s. Demand has stepped in twice around 1.4030–1.4023 to keep the week low intact.
Support: 1.4023, 1.4033
Resistance: 1.40574, 1.40674, 1.4090
What it said to watch
Canada GDP (Fri 12:30 GMT, f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
H1 close back above 1.4066 negates the downside range break
Range break lower, consolidating below prior floor.
USD/CAD broke down out of this week's 1.409–1.413 range during yesterday's NY session, cratering to 1.4023 before stabilising near 1.4050. Price now sits below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) recovering from oversold into the mid-40s. The 1.4067 bounce high has capped the recovery while the prior range floor at 1.4090 caps overhead supply.
Support: 1.4023, 1.40305
Resistance: 1.40674, 1.4090, 1.4111
What it said to watch
US Q2 GDP / core PCE at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
H1 close back above 1.4090 range floor would negate the breakdown
Failure to hold 1.4023 week low confirms lower-low extension
10:02 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after break · RSI 39 · price 1.40475
Range floor broken, basing in low 1.404s.
USDCAD held the 1.4090-1.4125 range most of the week before a sharp break lower in the NY session dropped it to 1.4023, with the pair now basing in the low 1.404s below EMA20 and EMA50. The 1.4090 prior floor now caps as resistance while demand has stepped in twice around 1.4030. RSI(14) sits mid-30s, reflecting the post-break washout rather than fresh momentum.
Support: 1.4023, 1.40305
Resistance: 1.4067, 1.4090, 1.4110
What it said to watch
US Q2 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 GMT (~2.5h) is the pivot for this read
H1 close back above 1.4090 invalidates the range-break read
USDCAD held a tight 1.4090-1.4120 range for most of the week before a sharp selloff broke it, dumping the pair to 1.4023 in a single impulsive hour. Price has since based above 1.4040 with a sequence of rising lows into the NY session, recovering toward the 1.40674 session high; RSI(14) has climbed off oversold but still sits below 50 with price under both EMA(20) and EMA(50). The move sits just above the 38.2% retracement of the drop.
Support: 1.4040, 1.4023
Resistance: 1.40674, 1.4090
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.4040 reopens the 1.4023 week low
Reclaim of 1.4090 prior range needed to negate the downside break
US GDP/core PCE ~3.5h out is the near-term catalyst that could shift this read
09:02 UTC
Downtrend after range break, consolidating · RSI 43 · price 1.40568
Broke below week range, basing near lows.
Price held a 1.4075-1.4125 band through most of the week before a sharp session drop sliced through 1.4040 to a 1.4023 low, coinciding with the softer-toned tape after the divided FOMC hold. Recovery has stalled at 1.4066 and price is now consolidating near 1.4057, below both EMA(20) and EMA(50). RSI(14) has lifted off oversold but sits sub-50, matching the capped bounce.
Support: 1.4039, 1.4023
Resistance: 1.40662, 1.4080, 1.4110
What it said to watch
US GDP + Core PCE at 12:30 GMT (~3.5h out) is the key USD catalyst for this read
H1 close back above 1.40800 would negate the range-break structure
Failure to hold 1.40390 reopens the 1.40230 week low
08:02 UTC
Downtrend, recovering off lows · RSI 44 · price 1.40665
Range break lower, bounce underway.
USDCAD broke below the 1.4060-1.4125 week range after the Fed's hawkish-hold knocked the pair to a week low near 1.4023 in the NY session. Buyers have since stepped in, grinding price back to 1.4066 with RSI recovering from oversold, but the prior range floor near 1.4090 now sits overhead as resistance. Price remains below both EMA20 and EMA50 on H1.
Support: 1.4040, 1.4023
Resistance: 1.4090, 1.4125
What it said to watch
US Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Close back above 1.4090 negates the range break lower
Failure to hold 1.4040 reopens the 1.4023 week low
08:02 UTC
Downtrend, recovering off lows · RSI 45 · price 1.40665
Range broke lower, retracing into broken floor.
Price traded a tight 1.4085–1.4125 band all week before a sharp NY-session slide yesterday broke below the range to 1.4023, the post-FOMC hawkish-hold read plus Canada GDP anticipation weighing. Since then price has stabilised and is grinding back toward the broken 1.4085–1.4090 floor, now acting as resistance, with RSI(14) lifting off oversold into the mid-40s. Trades below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) on H1.
Support: 1.4040, 1.4023
Resistance: 1.4090, 1.4125
What it said to watch
US Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close back above 1.4090 invalidates the breakdown
Failure to hold 1.4023 confirms a lower-low
07:01 UTC
Downtrend, basing after break · RSI 41 · price 1.40535
Broke weekly range, consolidating near lows.
USDCAD spent most of this week pinned near 1.4100 before dropping sharply through 1.4090 prior support after the FOMC hold, bottoming at the 1.4023 session low. Price has since based between 1.4048 and the 1.4058 session high, with RSI(14) recovering off oversold but still holding well below EMA20. The move was almost entirely a post-Fed USD reaction, and price now sits at Scotiabank's fair-value anchor.
Support: 1.4048, 1.4033, 1.4023
Resistance: 1.4058, 1.4090, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Core PCE / Q2 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~6h) could validate or fade the post-Fed slide
Reclaim above 1.4090 prior support would invalidate the downside break
Failure to hold 1.4023 session low confirms continuation lower
06:01 UTC
Shifting lower after range break · RSI 42 · price 1.4053
Broke below week-long range at 1.41, basing lower.
USDCAD spent most of the week pinned around 1.41 before a sharp post-FOMC leg lower flushed it to 1.4023, as the softer USD read broke the range floor near 1.4090. Price has since stabilised in a 1.4040-1.4055 band, holding below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) recovering off oversold. The 1.4090 prior floor now caps the picture as resistance.
Support: 1.4040, 1.4023
Resistance: 1.4090, 1.4100, 1.4125
What it said to watch
Today's 12:30 GMT US PCE/GDP cluster could materially shift this read
H1 close back above 1.4090 negates the range break
Failure to hold 1.4040 reopens the 1.4023 spike low
05:03 UTC
Downtrend after range break, corrective bounce · RSI 43 · price 1.40548
Broke week-long 1.41 range, basing above 1.4030.
USDCAD spent most of the week pinned around the 1.41 pivot before a sharp drop during the NY session flushed the pair to 1.4023, decisively breaking the range floor. Price has since based and clawed back to 1.4055 on rising lows, but sits below both EMA20 (~1.4072) and EMA50, with RSI(14) recovering from oversold toward the mid-40s. The 1.4060 Scotia support flips to near-term resistance overhead, capping the bounce so far.
Support: 1.40305, 1.4023
Resistance: 1.4060, 1.4072, 1.4100
What it said to watch
US Core PCE/GDP cluster at 12:30 GMT is the key catalyst and can materially shift this read
Reclaim of the 1.4100 pivot would neutralise the range-break lower
Failure to hold 1.4030 confirms continuation toward the week low at 1.4023
05:02 UTC
Range broken lower, momentum down · RSI 41 · price 1.40548
Consolidating below the breakdown zone.
USDCAD held a tight range just below the 1.4100 pivot for most of the week before breaking sharply lower into the NY session, printing 1.4023 before stabilising. Price now consolidates below 1.4060 with RSI(14) recovering off oversold but still sub-50, and price trading well below both EMAs after the drop. The prior weekly support around 1.4080 now caps as resistance.
Support: 1.4030, 1.4023
Resistance: 1.4057, 1.4080, 1.4100
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4080 would negate the breakdown read
Failure to hold 1.4030 opens the 1.4023 session low
US Core PCE/GDP cluster at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
USDCAD pinned around 1.4100 for most of the week before a sharp NY-session break lower slammed it to 1.4023, the leg consistent with a stretched-USD-long unwind ahead of month-end. Price now bases in a tight 1.4040–1.4057 band well below EMA(20)/EMA(50), with RSI(14) recovering off oversold but still sub-40. The prior 1.4090–1.4100 range floor is now overhead supply.
Support: 1.40305, 1.4023
Resistance: 1.40574, 1.4090, 1.4100
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.40574 reopens the 1.4090 prior range
Loss of 1.40305 confirms a lower-low toward 1.4023 week low
US Core PCE cluster and Canada GDP within 24h could reshape this range
04:02 UTC
Range broken lower, below EMAs · RSI 39 · price 1.40516
Week-long range broke, now basing sub-1.4060.
USDCAD spent most of the week pinned around the 1.4100 pivot before a sharp leg lower into the NY session broke the range floor, printing 1.4023. Price has since based between 1.4039 and 1.4057, holding below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) recovering off oversold. The prior range floor near 1.4090 now sits overhead as resistance.
Support: 1.40388, 1.4023
Resistance: 1.40574, 1.40905, 1.4100
What it said to watch
US Core PCE/GDP cluster at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Canada GDP Friday is the nearest CAD catalyst
H1 close back above 1.40905 negates the range break
USDCAD spent the week pinned around 1.4100 before a sharp late-NY drop sliced through the 1.4090 range floor into 1.4023, the deepest low of the window. Price has since stabilised in a tight 1.4033–1.4057 band, holding well below the EMA(20)/EMA(50) cluster near 1.4095. RSI(14) sits sub-40 after the impulse, reflecting the momentum shift rather than exhaustion.
Support: 1.4023, 1.4033
Resistance: 1.4057, 1.4090, 1.4100
What it said to watch
US Core PCE + Q2 GDP 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
H1 close back above 1.4090 range floor invalidates the breakdown
Failure to hold 1.4023 confirms a lower-low extension
03:02 UTC
Downturn after range break · RSI 41 · price 1.40495
Broke below week-long 1.41 range, basing near lows.
USDCAD spent the week pinned in a ~30-pip range just below 1.4100 through the Fed and BoC deliberations, then broke sharply lower into the NY session, slicing through 1.4090 support to tag 1.4023. Price now sits below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) recovering off oversold; the bounce stalled at 1.4057, keeping the prior range floor as fresh resistance.
Support: 1.4023, 1.4033
Resistance: 1.40574, 1.4090, 1.4100
What it said to watch
US Core PCE + Q2 GDP 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
H1 close back above 1.4090 would negate the downside range break
Failure to hold 1.4023 confirms a lower low
Canada GDP Fri 12:30 is the next CAD catalyst
02:02 UTC
Sharp shift lower after range break · RSI 31 · price 1.40359
Week-long range broken, fresh lower low.
USDCAD held a tight 1.4060-1.4128 band all week before a sharp NY-session drop knocked it clean through the 1.4060 range floor, spiking to a 1.4023 sweep low. Price recovered to 1.40574 then faded again, printing lower and now hugging 1.4036 with RSI(14) near oversold and price well below EMA20 and EMA50. The prior range floor at 1.4060 now sits overhead as resistance.
Support: 1.4023, 1.40333
Resistance: 1.40574, 1.4060, 1.4090
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4060 range floor would negate the downside break
Failure to hold the 1.4023 sweep low confirms extension of the lower low
US Core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD held a tight 1.4060-1.4125 band most of the week before a sharp NY-session break lower, dropping ~50 pips to a 1.4023 session low as firmer oil supported the loonie. Price is now consolidating in the 1.4036-1.4057 zone below both EMAs with RSI(14) near oversold. The prior range floor at 1.4090 has flipped to resistance and capped the initial rebound high at 1.4057.
Support: 1.4023, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4057, 1.4090, 1.4125
What it said to watch
US Core PCE / GDP batch at 12:30 UTC (~10.5h) is the key near-term driver and could reshape this read
Reclaim of 1.4090 range floor would invalidate the breakdown
Failure to hold 1.4023 session low opens the path toward the 1.4000 psych level
01:03 UTC
Downtrend, fresh range break · RSI 30 · price 1.40359
Range break lower, new week low.
USDCAD oscillated in a 1.4056–1.4125 band all week before breaking down sharply during the NY session, dropping to 1.4023 as the Fed's expected hold removed the hike premium and stretched dollar longs unwound. Price is now trading below the former range floor near 1.4056, which capped the initial bounce, with RSI(14) pressed into oversold territory. Both EMA20 and EMA50 sit above price after the impulsive leg lower.
Support: 1.4023, 1.40333
Resistance: 1.40574, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.4056 range floor would negate the breakdown
Failure to hold above 1.4023 confirms lower-low extension
Thu 12:30 GMT US Core PCE/GDP cluster could materially shift this read
Fri Canada GDP as a CAD catalyst into month-end
01:02 UTC
Downtrend, fresh range break · RSI 29 · price 1.40359
Week-long range broken lower.
USDCAD oscillated in the 1.4056–1.4125 band all week before breaking sharply lower into the NY session, dropping to 1.4023 as the Fed's expected hold stripped out the hike premium and stretched dollar longs unwound. Price now trades well below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) around 29, having failed to reclaim the broken 1.4056 range floor. The 1.40560 level that capped the range is now overhead resistance.
Support: 1.40333, 1.4023
Resistance: 1.40574, 1.4056, 1.40905
What it said to watch
Reclaim above 1.4056 would put price back inside the prior range
Failure to hold 1.4023 confirms downside continuation
Thu 12:30 GMT US Core PCE/GDP cluster could materially shift this read
USDCAD spent the week grinding inside 1.4060-1.4125 before a sharp NY-session breakdown drove a single large bearish candle through the range floor, with CAD firming on oil and a softer USD post-FOMC hold. Price now sits below the broken 1.4060 support and is probing session lows near 1.4023 with RSI(14) pressed into oversold territory. The prior range floor at 1.4060 flips to the nearest overhead area to watch.
Support: 1.4023, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4060, 1.4093, 1.41284
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.4060 would neutralise the range-break read
Failure to hold 1.4023 opens the path toward the 1.4000 round number
Thu 12:30 GMT US Core PCE/GDP cluster could materially shift this read
USDCAD ground sideways in a 1.4060-1.4125 band all week before a sharp NY-session break lower dropped it through the range floor to 1.4023, as the dollar unwound stretched longs after the Fed held rates and removed the hike premium. Price is now pinned near the lows with RSI(14) stretched into oversold territory and well below EMA(20)/EMA(50). The prior range floor at 1.4060 has flipped to resistance, capping the shallow bounce.
Support: 1.4023, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4057, 1.4060, 1.4093
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.4060 would invalidate the breakdown and put price back inside the week's range
Failure to hold 1.4023 opens the path toward the 1.4000 psych level
Thu 12:30 GMT US Core PCE/GDP cluster could materially shift this read