USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Wednesday, 30 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Uptrend, stalling into consolidation · RSI 64 · price 1.42334
Higher-low chain off PCE low, flat 1.4229–1.4237 band since late NY.
The 12:30 UTC core PCE miss dropped the pair to 1.4154, but growth beats turned USD bid. NY reclaimed the Asian high at 1.4200 and stepped higher lows up to a 1.4237 NY high. Since then price has compressed into a narrow 1.4229–1.4237 band through the rollover into early Asia session, with RSI(14) near 64 and ATR shrinking to about 3 pips.
Support: 1.4229, 1.4213, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4237, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4237 NY high opens the path to the 1.4250 5-month high
Loss of the 1.4229 range floor exposes the 1.4213 swing low and the 38.2% of the PCE-low fib near 1.4205
Failure back below the 1.4200 Asian high would negate the NY breakout
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC, Canada Manufacturing PMI 13:30 UTC and ISM plus Waller 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
23:31 UTC
Uptrend, pausing in tight Asia range · RSI 48 · price 1.42335
Post-PCE rally, flat consolidation above 1.4200.
The soft core PCE print knocked USD/CAD to 1.4154, but growth beats lifted the USD. The recovery through NY hours cleared the 1.4200 breakout level and peaked at the 1.4237 NY high. Early Asia session is holding a 1.4226–1.4235 range with ATR compressed near 4 pips. The thin rollover spike to 1.4218 held at the 23.6% fib of the post-PCE rally.
Support: 1.42258, 1.42129, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42366, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asia low at 1.4226 exposes the swing low at 1.4213 and the 23.6% fib
Loss of the 1.4200 breakout level would undo the post-PCE rally structure
Acceptance above the 1.4237 NY high opens the 1.4250 psych level, the five-month high
US Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC), Canada Manufacturing PMI (13:30 UTC) and ISM with Waller (14:00 UTC) could shift this read
23:16 UTC
Uptrend, pausing near highs · RSI 60 · price 1.42346
HH/HL recovery from the PCE low, now a tight range under the session high.
The 12:30 UTC core PCE miss spiked the pair to 1.4154. Growth beats then drove a V-shaped NY recovery through the 1.4200 Asian high to a 1.4237 session high, retracing the full PCE swing. Into early Asia the pair is holding a narrow range, 1.4229 range low to 1.4237. The rollover low wick at 1.4218 was quickly bought back.
Support: 1.4229, 1.4218, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4237, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4237 session high opens the 1.4250 5-month high
Loss of the 1.4229 range low puts the 1.4218 rollover low and the PCE swing 38.2% near 1.4205 in play
Failure to hold the 1.4200 Asian high would undo the NY breakout
Thu: Canada PMI 13:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing with Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
23:04 UTC
Uptrend, stalling below NY high · RSI 68 · price 1.42345
Post-PCE V-rebound, now tight consolidation near highs.
USD/CAD bottomed at the 1.4155 PCE low, then rallied as US growth beats absorbed the soft core print, clearing the 1.42 pivot during NY hours and topping at the 1.4237 NY high. Since then price has held in a tight consolidation between the 1.4229 range floor and that high into the Asia session, and a thin-liquidity spike low at 1.4218 was bought back quickly. RSI(14) is near 68 and ATR(14) has compressed to about 4.5 pips.
Support: 1.4229, 1.4218, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4237, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4237 NY high opens the 1.4250 5-month high
Loss of the 1.4229 range floor exposes the 1.4218 spike low and the 1.42 pivot
Failure to hold the 1.42 pivot would put the PCE low–NY high rally into a deeper retracement
US Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC), Canada Mfg PMI (13:30 UTC) and ISM Mfg with Waller (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
22:46 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after NY rally · RSI 52 · price 1.42329
Post-NY consolidation above broken 1.4200 pivot.
The post-PCE dip to 1.4154 was fully reversed through NY as growth beats lifted USD. Price cleared the Asian range and the 1.4200 round number, then made a session high at 1.4237 along the rising trendline from the PCE low. It is now holding a tight 1.4229–1.4237 band after the NY close. RSI is neutral near 52. The rollover wick to 1.4218 was a thin-liquidity spike, not a structural break.
Support: 1.4229, 1.4213, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42366, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4237 session high opens the 1.4250 5-month high
Loss of the 1.4229 post-ny low exposes the 1.4213 ny pullback and the 1.4200 round number
Break below the rising trendline from the PCE low, or a move below the 38.2% fib near 1.4205, would undercut the breakout read
US Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC), Canada Mfg PMI (13:30 UTC) and ISM plus Waller (14:00 UTC) Thursday could shift this read
22:31 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after NY rally · RSI 52 · price 1.42329
Post-PCE V-reversal, HH/HL chain, now a tight late-session range.
The soft core PCE print flushed USDCAD to 1.4154 at 12:30 UTC. Growth beats reversed the dip, and the NY session cleared the Asian high and the 1.4200 round number, holding a prior base at 1.4213 before printing a 1.4237 NY high. Since then price has compressed in a 1.4226–1.4237 range, with RSI(14) neutral near 52 and the NY uptrend line rising underneath.
Support: 1.4226, 1.4213, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42366, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4237 NY high opens the 1.4250 5m high
Loss of the 1.4226 range low and the NY uptrend line points to the 1.4213 prior base
Close back below the 1.4200 round number would mark the NY breakout as failed; 38.2% fib sits near 1.4205
US ISM Mfg and Waller at 14:00 UTC, plus Canada PMI at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher highs off the 1.4154 PCE low; tight range under session high.
The soft US core PCE spiked the pair to 1.4154 at 12:30 UTC. Strong growth data then reversed the move in NY hours, clearing the 1.4200 Asian high and printing a session high at 1.4237. Since the NY close, price has been compressed in a 1.4229–1.4237 band above the range floor, with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 1.4229, 1.4213, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4237, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4237 session high opens the 1.4250 5-month high
Break of the 1.4229 range floor exposes the 1.4213 pullback low, then the 1.4200 Asian high
Loss of 1.4200 would put price back inside the prior Asian range and weaken the breakout read
Thin Asia session liquidity ahead of Thursday's US Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM/Waller (14:00 UTC)
HH/HL climb from PCE low, tight range under 1.4237.
The soft core PCE print knocked USD/CAD to the 1.4154 pce low at 12:30 UTC. The GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats then drove a steady HH/HL climb through NY hours, clearing the 1.4200 asian high. Price has held a 1.4229–1.4237 band between the late ny low and the session high into the Asia open, with RSI(14) near 58 and the 1.4218 rollover wick reflecting spread widening rather than structure.
Support: 1.4229, 1.4200, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4237, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4237 session high exposes the 1.4250 5-month high
Break below 1.4229 late ny low opens a retest of the 1.4200 asian high, near the 38.2% fib of the pce-low rally
Loss of 1.4200 turns the NY breakout into a false break, with the 1.4154 pce low back in view
Fed's Kashkari at 22:00 UTC could shift this read
21:46 UTC
Uptrend, pausing near highs · RSI 56 · price 1.4230
NY rally from post-PCE low stalled into tight range below session high.
The post-PCE spike to 1.4154 was fully reversed as strong GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI prints lifted USD. The NY rally cleared the Asian range high and the 1.4200 pivot to a session high at 1.4237. Price has since held a 1.4229–1.4237 band into rollover, RSI(14) cooling to ~56.
Support: 1.4229, 1.42129, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42366, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4229 range low exposes the 1.4213 swing low and the 38.2% NY rally fib near 1.4205
Close above the 1.4237 session high brings the 1.4250 5-month high into view
Loss of the 1.4200 pivot would unwind most of the NY rally
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC, then Canada Manufacturing PMI and US ISM on Oct 1, could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from 1.4155, tight range below session high.
The post-PCE drop to 1.4155 in NY hours reversed as the GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats lifted USD. The pair reclaimed the 1.4200 round number and set a session high at 1.4237. Price is now compressing in a 1.4229–1.4237 band above the range floor into the Asia session, with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 1.4229, 1.4213, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42366, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4237 session high opens the 1.4250 5m high (five-month high)
M15 close below the 1.4229 range floor exposes the 1.4213 swing low
Break of the 1.4213 swing low ends the HH/HL chain; 38.2% of the PCE-low rally sits near 1.4205, just above the 1.4200 round number
The 12:30 UTC soft core PCE print dropped the pair to 1.4154. It then reversed as the GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats and firmer yields lifted USD, clearing the 1.4200 round number during NY hours and printing a session high at 1.4237. Late NY has compressed into a 1.4229–1.4237 box, with RSI(14) near 63 and the move stalling below the 1.4250 5-month high.
Support: 1.4229, 1.4213, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4237, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4229 range low opens a retrace toward the 1.4213 swing low and the 38.2% post-PCE fib near 1.4205
Failure to hold the 1.4200 round number breaks the post-PCE higher-low chain
Break of the 1.4237 session high puts the 1.4250 5-month high in play
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC tonight, then Canada PMI 13:30 and ISM 14:00 UTC Thu, could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from the 1.4154 PCE low; tight late-NY band 1.4229–1.4237.
NY session fully reversed the flush to 1.4154 on the soft core PCE print as the GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats lifted USD. The pair broke the 1.4200 round number and set a session high at 1.4237. Late NY price is compressing between a 1.4229 micro low and the session high, RSI(14) near 66 and not stretched.
Support: 1.4229, 1.4213, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4237, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4237 session high opens the 1.4250 5-month high
Close below the 1.4229 micro low shifts focus to the 1.4213 pullback low and the rising trendline
Loss of the 1.4200 round number would put the breakout at risk of a false break
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC and Canada PMI 13:30 / ISM 14:00 UTC Thu could materially shift this read
20:32 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling late NY · RSI 66 · price 1.42318
Post-PCE HH/HL chain from 1.4154, now an 8-pip box under the session high.
The 12:30 UTC soft PCE spike swept the London low to 1.4154. Beats in GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI then drove the post-PCE rally through the 1.4200 breakout level into a steady HH/HL chain. Late in the NY session price is stalling below the 1.4237 session high, with three bars holding a 1.4229 micro floor and RSI(14) cooling toward 66.
Support: 1.4229, 1.4213, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4237, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4229 micro floor opens a pullback toward the 1.4213 swing low
Failure to hold the 1.4200 breakout level puts the 38.2% of the post-PCE rally near 1.4205 in play
Close above the 1.4237 session high opens the path to the 1.4250 5-month high
Fed's Kashkari at 22:00 UTC could shift this read in thin post-NY trade
20:16 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 73 · price 1.42353
Higher highs and higher lows since the 12:30 UTC low, compressing under 1.4237.
The soft US core PCE print swept price to 1.4154 at 12:30 UTC. Strong GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI then drove an 80-pip NY-session rally through the 1.4200 round number. Rising lows since 17:00 UTC have it pressing the 1.4237 session high, with the 1.4250 5-month high just overhead and RSI(14) at 73. It is warm, not stretched.
Support: 1.4229, 1.4213, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4237, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4229 swing low breaks the rising-lows chain and exposes the 1.4213 higher low
Loss of the 1.4200 round number, near the 38.2% fib, would negate the breakout read
1.4250 5-month high: area to watch for rejection or extension above the session high
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC could shift the read in thin post-NY trade
20:04 UTC
Uptrend, extended into late NY · RSI 68 · price 1.42319
Higher highs and higher lows since the post-PCE flush, holding above the broken 1.4200 pivot.
The 12:30 UTC core PCE miss produced a false break below the London low to 1.4154. Firm ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI data then reversed it into a steady NY-session climb through the 1.4200 pivot to a 1.4237 session high. RSI(14) is near 68, and pullbacks have stayed shallow, holding the 1.4213 swing low and the 1.4229 micro low.
Support: 1.4229, 1.4213, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4237, 1.4250
What it said to watch
Goolsbee at 20:05 UTC and Kashkari at 22:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.4237 session high opens the path to the 1.4250 5-month high
Break of the 1.4229 micro low, then the 1.4213 swing low, ends the higher-low chain
M15 close back below the 1.4200 pivot unwinds the NY breakout; the 38.2% of the post-PCE rally fib sits near 1.4205
19:46 UTC
Uptrend, higher highs through late NY · RSI 72 · price 1.42343
V-recovery from the PCE low, HH/HL chain above the reclaimed 1.4200 pivot.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC flushed USDCAD to 1.4154. The ADP and Chicago PMI beats then drove a V-recovery through the Asian range top and the 1.4200 pivot to a session high at 1.4235. Late NY is holding a rising-lows trendline from the 1.4213 NY pivot low to the 1.4229 swing low, with RSI(14) near 72: hot but not stretched.
Support: 1.4229, 1.4213, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4235, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4229 swing low breaks the rising-lows trendline
Loss of the 1.4200 pivot puts the fib 38.2% near 1.4204 and the 50% near 1.4195 in play
Acceptance above the 1.4235 session high opens the 1.4250 5-month high
Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) and Kashkari (22:00 UTC) Fedspeak could shift this read in thin late-NY trade
19:31 UTC
Uptrend, extending into late NY · RSI 71 · price 1.42311
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.4154 PCE spike low, above the 1.4200 pivot.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC spiked the pair below the London lows to the 1.4154 PCE low. The GDP and Chicago PMI beats then turned that move into an ~80-pip rally through the 1.4200 pivot, with higher lows along the PCE-low trendline. Price is pressing the 1.4235 session high with RSI(14) near 71, and the 1.4250 5-month high sits just above.
Support: 1.4213, 1.4200, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4235, 1.4250
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4250 5-month high extends the uptrend into fresh territory
A close below the 1.4213 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain and the PCE-low trendline
A move back under the 1.4200 pivot, near the 38.2% of the PCE rally fib, would turn the breakout into a false break
Fed's Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) and Kashkari (22:00 UTC) on October vs December hike timing could shift this read
19:17 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into late NY · RSI 80 · price 1.4234
Higher-high/higher-low chain above the broken 1.4200 pivot.
The 12:30 UTC core PCE miss knocked the pair to the 1.4155 pce low. Beats in GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI then drove a V-shaped reversal through the 1.4200 pivot, which was also the Asian high. Since the London close, price has stepped higher along a rising trendline to a 1.4234 session high, with the 1.4213 swing low as the last higher low, RSI(14) near 80 and ATR around 5 pips as the move approaches the 1.4250 5-month high.
Support: 1.4213, 1.4200, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4234, 1.4250
What it said to watch
Fedspeak from Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) on hike timing could materially shift this read
M15 close below the rising trendline and the 1.4213 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Loss of the 1.4200 pivot, near the 38.2% fib of the PCE rally, puts the breakout back inside the prior range
Rejection at the 1.4250 5-month high with RSI near 80 would flag exhaustion; acceptance above extends the uptrend
19:04 UTC
Uptrend, extended into late NY · RSI 83 · price 1.42294
Higher lows since the 1.4154 release low; 1.4200 broken and held.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC knocked the pair to a 1.4154 day low. Beats in US GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI then drove a 75-pip NY-session reversal through the 1.4200 psych level. Late NY is printing higher lows off the 1.4213 swing low, with price pressing the 1.4229 session high, RSI(14) near 83 and the 1.4250 5-month high just above.
Support: 1.4213, 1.4200, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4229, 1.4250
What it said to watch
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could shift the hike-timing read tonight
Failure to hold the 1.4213 swing low exposes 1.4200 psych, which coincides with the 38.2% of the post-PCE rally
An M15 close back below 1.4200 turns the breakout into a false break, with the 1.4154 day low back in view
1.4229 session high and 1.4250 5-month high overhead: area to watch for rejection or extension with RSI(14) above 80
18:46 UTC
Uptrend, RSI hot late in NY · RSI 79 · price 1.42285
Higher lows since 1.4154 post-PCE low, 1.4200 round number cleared.
The 12:30 UTC PCE miss flushed USDCAD to 1.4154, but the ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats drove a steady NY-session reversal through the London range and the 1.4200 round number, which is also the Asian high. Higher lows since, the latest swing low is 1.4213, and price is printing a fresh session high at 1.4229. RSI(14) near 79 is stretched, and the 1.4250 psych level is the next marker above.
Support: 1.42129, 1.4200, 1.41765
Resistance: 1.42285, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4213 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Return below the 1.4200 round number (38.2% of the PCE-low rally) turns the breakout into a false break
Acceptance above the 1.4229 session high puts the 1.4250 psych level in play
Loss of 1.4200 exposes the 1.4176 london range floor
Fed Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could materially shift this read
18:31 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 78 · price 1.42245
HH/HL chain from post-PCE low; 1.4200 cap broken.
The 12:30 UTC soft PCE spike to the 1.4154 post-PCE low was fully reversed as the ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats came through. NY then broke the 1.4200 round number (Asian high) and built a HH/HL chain along the NY rising line, with the latest swing low at 1.4213. Late NY now presses the 1.4226 session high with RSI(14) near 78, about 25 pips shy of the 1.4250 five-month high.
Support: 1.42129, 1.4200, 1.41544
Resistance: 1.42264, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4200 round number turns the breakout into a false break and brings the 38.2% fib into play
Loss of the 1.4213 swing low breaks the NY HH/HL chain and the rising line
1.4250 five-month high: area to watch for rejection or extension above the 1.4226 session high
Fed Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari from 19:25 UTC could materially shift this read
18:16 UTC
Uptrend, pace slowing near highs · RSI 79 · price 1.42246
HH/HL chain off PCE low, 1.4200 cap broken in NY.
The soft PCE print flushed price to 1.4154, but the ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats lifted USD. NY hours then broke the 1.4200 prior cap that held through Asia and London, and price is printing a session high at 1.4225. The higher low at 1.4184 and the swing low at 1.4213 are intact; RSI(14) near 79 is stretched and candle ranges are narrowing in late NY.
Support: 1.4213, 1.4200, 1.4184
Resistance: 1.4225, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4200 prior cap would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.4213 swing low breaks the NY higher-low chain; the 38.2% of the PCE rally fib sits near 1.4198
Fed Cook/Goolsbee/Kashkari from 19:25 UTC could materially shift this read
Acceptance above the 1.4250 round number, the five-month high area, extends the breakout
18:03 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into late NY · RSI 78 · price 1.4223
Post-PCE V-reversal, HH/HL chain through the 1.4200 cap.
The soft core PCE print knocked USDCAD to a 1.4155 PCE low at 12:30 UTC. Strong ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI data then fuelled a steady NY-session climb through the 1.4200 prior cap to a 1.4224 session high, with RSI(14) near 78. The only pullback after London close held at the 1.4213 pullback low, keeping the rally trendline intact.
Support: 1.4213, 1.4200, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4224, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4200 prior cap would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the rally trendline and the 1.4213 pullback low exposes the 1.4155 PCE low, near the 61.8% of the PCE rally
A close above the 1.4224 session high leaves the 1.4250 5-month high as the next reference
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC) and Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) could materially shift the read in thin late-NY trade
17:46 UTC
Uptrend, flattening near session high · RSI 72 · price 1.42211
V-shaped reversal off PCE low, breakout above 1.4200, tight consolidation under 1.4222.
The soft core PCE print knocked USDCAD to a 1.4154 pce low. Strong ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI data then fuelled a straight NY-session climb through the 1.4200 asia high, a level that had capped the pair twice, to a 1.4222 session high. After London close, price is compressing in a narrow band above the 1.4213 swing low, with RSI(14) near 72.
Support: 1.42129, 1.41997, 1.41544
Resistance: 1.42215, 1.4250
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4213 swing low puts a retest of the 1.4200 asia high in play
M15 close back below 1.4200 would turn the breakout into a false break; the 50% retracement of the pce rally fib sits near 1.4188
Acceptance above the 1.4222 session high leaves the 1.4250 5-month high as the next reference
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC) and Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) could materially shift this read
V-recovery from post-PCE low; HH/HL chain, 1.4200 broken.
The 12:30 UTC flush to 1.4154 on the soft core PCE print fully reversed through NY hours as the ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats restored the USD bid, with price clearing the 1.4200 prior cap and printing a session high at 1.4222. After London close the pair is consolidating just below that high, holding the 1.4213 swing low with RSI(14) near 73. Price is also holding the rising trendline off the higher low.
Support: 1.4213, 1.4200, 1.4184
Resistance: 1.42215, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4200 prior cap would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the 1.4213 swing low and the rising trendline exposes the 1.4184 higher low
A break above the 1.4222 session high opens the path to the 1.4250 5-month high
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC) and Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) could materially shift this read
17:16 UTC
Uptrend, pausing at session high · RSI 70 · price 1.42163
HH/HL chain off PCE low, broke 1.4200 cap.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC swept below the 1.4175 London low to 1.4154. ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats then drove a ~67-pip NY rally along the rally trendline, clearing the 1.4200 prior cap to a 1.4222 session high. Late in the NY session, price is stalling in a tight 1.4213–1.4222 band, RSI(14) cooling to about 70 and ATR near 7 pips.
Support: 1.4213, 1.4200, 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4222, 1.4250
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.4200 prior cap would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.4213 pullback low with a break of the rally trendline exposes the 38.2–50% fib zone near 1.4196–1.4188 on the PCE rally fib
A close above the 1.4222 session high opens the path toward the 1.4250 round number
Fed's Cook at 19:25 UTC, then Goolsbee and Kashkari, could materially shift this read
17:04 UTC
Uptrend, RSI stretched · RSI 79 · price 1.42202
HH/HL chain from the 1.4154 post-PCE low; 1.4200 round number broken late NY.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC swept USDCAD to 1.4154. ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats then drove a ~67-pip NY rally that broke the 1.4200 round number and set a session high at 1.4222. RSI(14) near 79 is stretched. The 1.4195 breakout base and the rally trendline sit just below price.
Support: 1.4200, 1.4195, 1.4184
Resistance: 1.42215, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4200 round number turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.4184 swing low breaks the NY HL chain and the rally trendline
Close above the 1.4222 session high opens the 1.4250 5-month high
Fed Cook 19:25 UTC, Goolsbee 20:05 and Kashkari 22:00 could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain from 1.4154; break above the 1.4200 prior cap.
The 12:30 UTC core PCE miss swept the London lows to the 1.4154 pce low, then ADP/GDP beats powered a steady NY-session climb along the rally trendline through the 1.4200 prior cap to a 1.4222 session high. RSI(14) near 75 after London close; the 14:30 UTC swing low at 1.4184 anchors the higher-low chain.
Support: 1.4200, 1.4184, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4222, 1.4250
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.4200 prior cap turns the breakout into a false break back inside the Asian range
Close below the 1.4184 swing low breaks the rally trendline and the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 1.4222 session high leaves the 1.4250 5-month high as the next reference
Fed's Cook 19:25 UTC, Goolsbee 20:05 and Kashkari 22:00 could shift the read on the PCE miss
HH/HL chain from the 1.4154 PCE low, now above the 1.4200 round number.
The post-PCE dip to the 1.4154 pce low was fully reversed in NY hours. Strong ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats restored the USD bid, and a steady HH/HL chain carried price through the 1.4200 round number, which capped earlier tests, to a 1.4220 session high around London close. RSI(14) near 78 is hot but normal for this trend, with the rising trendline from the pce low and the 1.4184 pullback low framing the structure.
Support: 1.4200, 1.4184, 1.41544
Resistance: 1.42203, 1.4250
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.4200 round number turns the breakout into a false break of the prior cap
A break of the 1.4184 pullback low and the rising trendline, near the 50% of the pce rally fib, ends the HH/HL chain
Acceptance above the 1.4220 session high opens the path toward the ~1.4250 5-month high
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight could shift the read on October vs December hike pricing
16:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the post-PCE low · RSI 73 · price 1.42128
HH/HL chain since 1.4154; 1.4200 cap broken after London close.
The post-PCE rally from the 1.4154 pce low took out the Asian high and the 1.4200 cap, which had rejected three probes, after London close. Price is pressing the session high at 1.4213 with RSI(14) near 73, hot but not stretched. Firm US growth data offset the core PCE miss.
Support: 1.4200, 1.4184, 1.41544
Resistance: 1.42128, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4200 broken cap turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.4184 swing low breaks the post-PCE HH/HL chain
Acceptance above the 1.4213 session high puts the 1.4250 5-month high in view
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could shift the read
Higher lows since 12:30 UTC, break above twice-rejected 1.4200 cap.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC swept the London low to the 1.4154 pce low, before the GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats drove a steady higher-low climb. NY session has now cleared the 1.4200 prior cap, rejected twice since yesterday, and set a session high at 1.4213 into London close with RSI(14) near 74.
Support: 1.4200, 1.4184, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4213, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 closes back below the 1.4200 prior cap would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the rising trendline and the 1.4184 swing low (50% fib of the post-PCE leg) unwinds the recovery toward the 1.4154 pce low
Holding above the 1.4213 session high leaves the 1.4250 5-month high as the next reference above
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could materially shift this read after the PCE miss
False break below London range floor, V-reversal with higher lows into 1.4200 cap.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC pushed price through the 1.4175 London low to a 1.4154 PCE low, but the break failed. The PCE rebound through NY hours reclaimed the Asian range and tagged a 1.4203 session high, where the latest bar was rejected just above the 1.4200 round number. RSI(14) near 60 has cooled off the highs.
Support: 1.4190, 1.4175, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4203
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.4203 session high clears the 1.4200 cap that has now rejected price twice
Loss of the 1.4190 asian floor and the rising trendline reopens the 1.4175 london low
A move back toward the 1.4154 pce low would put the rebound off the false break in question
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could materially shift this read after the PCE miss
15:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, pressing range top · RSI 63 · price 1.41975
Range 1.4175–1.4200; PCE false break below, higher lows since.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC broke the London range floor near 1.4175 and ran to a 1.4154 PCE low, but the break fully reversed through NY hours. The post-PCE rally has put in higher lows along a rising line into a third test of the 1.42 cap, with a session high at 1.4201 so far and no clean close above; RSI(14) at 63 is not stretched.
Support: 1.4184, 1.4175, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.42 cap breaks the range top; the digest flags 1.4250 as the 5-month high above
Loss of the 1.4184 swing low, near the 38.2% of the post-PCE rally, breaks the post-PCE rising line
A return below the 1.4175 range floor reopens the 1.4154 PCE low
Fed speakers Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari (19:25–22:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
15:16 UTC
Sharp V-recovery, pressing range top · RSI 65 · price 1.41971
Post-PCE false break below London low reclaimed; higher lows into 1.4200 cap.
The soft US core PCE print knocked USDCAD through the London low at 1.4175 to a PCE low of 1.4154. The pair has since retraced the entire move during NY hours along a rising rally trendline and cleared the London high at 1.4189. Price is now back at the 1.4200 round number that capped both yesterday's NY high and the Asian high, with RSI(14) at 65 and ATR near 8 pips.
Support: 1.4189, 1.4175, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4200 round number breaks the level capping this 24h window
Failure at 1.4200 and a close back below the 1.4189 london high marks a third rejection at the range top
Loss of the rally trendline and the 50% fib near 1.4176 (london low zone) would retrace half the PCE recovery
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight could shift the post-PCE read
15:03 UTC
Range-bound, sharp recovery into range top · RSI 64 · price 1.41971
Higher lows off the 1.4154 pce low, pressing the 1.4200 range top.
The soft core PCE print knocked USDCAD through the 1.4175 range base to a 1.4154 pce low. That break failed, and a higher-low recovery line through NY hours has carried price back to the 1.4200 range top, which capped the pair yesterday and again in the Asian range. RSI(14) is near 64 and ATR is about 9 pips. The 1.4184 swing low is the nearest higher low, and the 50% fib of the pce recovery sits at the range base.
Support: 1.4184, 1.4175, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4200 range top breaks the twice-rejected cap and opens the path toward the 1.4250 5-month high
Rejection at 1.4200 plus a break of the 1.4184 swing low and recovery line returns focus to the 1.4175 range base / 50% fib
Failure to hold the 1.4154 pce low negates the recovery and the false-break read
Fed Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) on the PCE miss could materially shift this read; month-end flows add noise
False break below London range, reclaimed; NY high capped under Asian high.
The 12:30 UTC core PCE miss drove a break of the london low to a 1.4154 pce low. Price then fully retraced within two hours, reclaiming the 1.4176–1.4190 London range. The NY high at 1.4196 stalled just under the 1.4200 asian high, a lower high on the day, and the current bar is pulling back with RSI(14) near 54. Demand held at 1.4170, the 61.8% fib of the rebound, on the only dip so far.
Support: 1.41761, 1.41702, 1.41544
Resistance: 1.41958, 1.41997
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4200 asian high breaks the lower-high sequence and the repeated 1.4200 rejections
Loss of the 1.4176 london low and the 1.4170 61.8% fib turns the PCE rebound into a failed recovery, with the 1.4154 pce low back in focus
Rejection at the 1.4196 ny high into London close keeps price inside the 1.4176–1.4200 band
Fed Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) framing of the PCE miss could shift this read
14:31 UTC
V-shaped recovery after PCE spike, pressing range top · RSI 61 · price 1.41938
False break below London range, reclaimed; testing 1.4200 Asian high.
The 12:30 UTC core PCE miss spiked price through the London low to the PCE low at 1.4154. The move reversed within the hour, holding a rising recovery line. Early NY has reclaimed the London high at 1.4189 and is pressing the Asian high near 1.4200, with RSI(14) near 61 and not stretched.
Support: 1.4189, 1.4175, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4200, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4200 asian high breaks the 24h range top; the 5-mth high at 1.4250 is the next reference
Slip back under the 1.4189 london high returns price to the London range, with the 1.4175 london low next
Loss of the recovery line and the 1.4154 pce low would negate the post-PCE reversal
Fed Cook (19:25 UTC) and Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) comments on the PCE miss, plus month-end flows, could shift this read
London range 1.4175–1.4189, PCE flush below range low reclaimed.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC flushed USD/CAD to the 1.4155 PCE low, well below the London range low at 1.4175. The drop was fully reclaimed during the first hour of NY, and price now sits at 1.4185, about 88% up the PCE drop fib and just under a range top at 1.4189 that capped four attempts since London. Above that, the 1.4200 double top from yesterday's NY session and the Asian session high remains the ceiling.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4189, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4189 range top brings the 1.4200 double top back into play
Loss of the 1.4175 range low would negate the false break and re-expose the 1.4155 PCE low
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC) and Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) could shift the read after the PCE miss; month-end flows may distort late NY price action
14:02 UTC
Recovering inside range after failed break · RSI 54 · price 1.41845
False break of London low, back inside 1.4175–1.4190 range.
The 12:30 UTC core PCE miss drove a 25-pip flush through the London low at 1.4175 to a PCE low at 1.4155. The break failed: a higher low at 1.4170 formed and NY has retraced about 88% of the drop to 1.4185, back inside the London range under the London high at 1.4190. RSI(14) is neutral near 54, with the Asia high at 1.4200 above.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4170, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4190, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the london high at 1.4190 exposes the asia high at 1.4200
Loss of the higher low at 1.4170 reopens the pce low at 1.4155
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC) and Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) could shift the read late in the NY session
London range 1.4175–1.4190 intact after PCE sweep to 1.4154.
London opened with a break below the Asian range and then chopped between the London low at 1.4175 and the London high at 1.4190. The soft core PCE print (3.0% vs 3.3%) swept price to the PCE low at 1.4154, but the move was fully retraced to the 61.8% level of the PCE drop fib and back to the London low. RSI(14) sits neutral at 46, price is just under EMA20, and ATR is about 7 pips.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4170, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4180, 1.4190, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the post-pce low at 1.4170 reopens the PCE low at 1.4154
A hold above the post-pce hi at 1.4180 puts the London high at 1.4190 back in play; the Asian high near 1.4200 caps above
Chicago PMI (13:45 UTC) and Fed's Cook at 19:25 UTC could shift this read
Month-end flows may distort NY session price action
13:31 UTC
Downtrend after data break, rebound capped · RSI 41 · price 1.41714
1.4175–1.4200 range broken lower; retest of range floor from below.
The soft US core PCE print at 12:30 UTC broke the 1.4175 range floor, which had held through Asia and London. Price spiked to the 1.4154 PCE low, then rebounded and stalled at 1.4179 on a retest of the old floor from below. Early in the NY session price sits back under that level with RSI(14) near 41, while the 1.4190 London high and the 1.4200 round number (the Asian high) cap the prior range.
Support: 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4176, 1.4190, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4176 range floor would negate the break and return price to the 1.4175–1.4190 range
A reclaim of the 1.4190 London high reopens the 1.4200 round number
A break below the 1.4154 PCE low confirms a lower low after the retest
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC and Fed speakers (Cook, Goolsbee) later in NY hours could materially shift this read
A double top formed at 1.4200 in Asia. London then held a 1.4175–1.4190 range until the soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC broke the range floor, leaving a PCE low at 1.4154. The first NY bars retraced about half the drop, from the double top to the PCE low, and price is now testing the old 1.4175 range floor from below.
Support: 1.41544
Resistance: 1.4175, 1.41896, 1.41997
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4175 range floor puts the 1.4190 London high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.4154 PCE low confirms a lower-low toward 1.4150
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could shift this read
Fed speakers from 19:25 UTC (Cook, Goolsbee, Kashkari) could shift this read
Repeated rejection under the 1.4200 double top keeps the upside capped
13:03 UTC
Range, lower highs since Asia · RSI 42 · price 1.41738
PCE sweep below London range floor, 62% recovery stalling at the floor.
The 12:30 UTC core PCE miss flushed USDCAD through the 1.4176 London range floor to the 1.4154 pce low. The next bar made a 1.4159 retest low and retraced about 62% of the drop, stalling right at the range floor as NY opens. Lower highs from the 1.4200 Asia high down to the 1.4189 London high cap the session, and RSI(14) sits near 42.
Support: 1.41592, 1.41544, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.41756, 1.41896, 1.41997
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.4176 range floor returns price to the 1.4176–1.4189 London range and turns the sweep into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4159 retest low and 1.4154 pce low confirms a range break, exposing 1.4150 psych
A close above the descending trendline and the 1.4189 london high breaks the lower-high sequence from the 1.4200 asia high
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC and Fed speakers from 19:25 UTC (Cook, Goolsbee, Kashkari) could materially shift this read
12:46 UTC
Sharp downside break, early NY · RSI 26 · price 1.41607
London range floor broken, holding near spike low.
The ADP high at 1.4189 faded, and the 12:30 GMT core PCE bar broke the 1.4175 range floor that London defended five times. It flushed to a 1.4154 spike low, well below the 1.4200 Asian high. Early NY price is holding near 1.4161 with RSI(14) at 26. The broken floor lines up with the 61.8% retrace of the drop.
Support: 1.41544, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4175, 1.41886, 1.41997
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4175 range floor (61.8% retrace) turns the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4154 spike low exposes the 1.4150 round number
Reclaim of the 1.4189 adp high would put the 1.4200 asian high back in play
PCE follow-through in the first hour of NY could extend or reverse the flush
12:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 36 · price 1.41708
Lower highs from 1.4200; London range floor broken on the US data bar.
USD/CAD topped twice at the 1.4200 double top (yesterday's NY high and the Asian high) and has printed lower highs since. The ADP beat spike to 1.4189 at 12:15 UTC faded completely. The 12:30 UTC US data bar then broke the 1.4175 range floor held through London and yesterday's NY session, printing a release low at 1.4167.
Support: 1.41666, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4175, 1.41886, 1.4200
What it said to watch
12:30 UTC core PCE bar is still in development; an M15 close back above the 1.4175 range floor turns the break into a false break
Acceptance below the 1.4167 release low leaves the 1.4150 round number as the next reference during NY hours
A reclaim of the 1.4189 ADP high breaks the lower-highs trendline from the Asian high
Friday NFP is the next scheduled USD catalyst; oil headlines drive CAD at the margin
12:16 UTC
Sideways after pre-London drop · RSI 56 · price 1.41855
London range 1.4175–1.4190 below Asian range.
USDCAD dropped out of its 1.4190–1.4200 Asian range from 05:00 UTC, after a second rejection just under the 1.4200 asian high. Softer oil and Williams' 'no rush' remarks trimmed USD, and London has since held a 1.4175–1.4190 range, with the range floor defended repeatedly. Price is back at 1.4186, testing the 50% retrace of the asian drop fib, right under the london high cluster.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4190, 1.4200
What it said to watch
ADP (12:15 UTC) and US core PCE (12:30 UTC) could break the 1.4175–1.4190 London range
M15 close above the 1.4190 london high reopens the 1.4200 asian high
Failure at the 1.4175 range floor exposes the 1.4150 psych level
12:02 UTC
Sideways, heavy below 1.4200 · RSI 55 · price 1.4184
1.4176–1.4200 range; London lower highs, floor held repeatedly.
USD/CAD was rejected twice at 1.4200, the prior NY high that gave way after Williams' 'no rush' remark and the Asian high, forming a double top. The pair then dropped to the 1.4176 range floor into London. London traded a tight 1.4176–1.4190 band, and the latest bar bounced off the floor to 1.4184, just under the 50% fib of the Asia-high sell-off.
Support: 1.4176, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4187, 1.4190, 1.4200
What it said to watch
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC, in the first hour of NY, could break the 1.4176–1.4200 range either way
M15 close below the 1.4176 range floor exposes the 1.4150 psych level
Close above the 50% fib and London high at 1.4187–1.4190 puts the 1.4200 double top back in play
Asian range topped out with a rejection just under the 1.4200 round number. Price then slid to 1.4175 into London as USD eased on Williams' 'no rush' remarks and softer oil, forming a double low with yesterday's NY-session trough. Since then London has printed lower highs, from the 1.4190 London high down to the 1.4182 lower high. Price is coiling just above the floor with RSI(14) near 42 and ATR(14) around 4 pips, which is tight ahead of the data.
Support: 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4182, 1.4190, 1.4200
What it said to watch
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC land inside the next few bars and could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.4175 double low breaks the floor and extends the lower-high sequence
Close above the 1.4182 lower high breaks the descending trendline and exposes the 1.4190 London high, the 61.8% fib of the Asia-high drop
Recovery through 1.4190 puts the 1.4200 round number back in focus
11:31 UTC
Sideways, soft within range · RSI 40 · price 1.41773
24h range 1.4175–1.4200; London lower highs pressing the floor.
Psych 1.42 rejected price twice, in Tue NY and again late Asia. The USD softened on Williams' dovish tilt, and London broke below the Asian range, then carved lower highs under the 1.4190 london high into the 1.4175 range floor, which has held three times in 24h. RSI(14) near 40 and ATR ~4.6 pips show a compressed tape heading into the London-NY transition.
Support: 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4182, 1.4190, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4175 range floor breaks the 24h range
Close above the lower highs trendline near 1.4182, then the 1.4190 london high, neutralises the London fade
ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) at NY open could materially shift this read; psych 1.42 remains the range cap
USDCAD dropped out of the 1.4190–1.4200 Asian range just before London. It has since held a 1.4175–1.4190 range, with the london high stalling near the 61.8% level of the Asia drop fib and a string of lower highs pressing toward the range floor at 1.4175, now tested five times in 24h. Two failures at the 1.4200 day high fit the Williams-led USD pullback; RSI(14) is near 43 with price just under both EMAs.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4187, 1.4190, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4175 range floor breaks the day's base and exposes the 1.4150 round number
Close above the 1.4190 london high negates the lower highs and reopens the 1.4200 day high
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
11:02 UTC
Short-term down, lower highs into flat base · RSI 37 · price 1.41772
Lower highs pressing a flat 1.4175 floor.
The late-Asia drop from the 1.4200 asia high to the 1.4175 session low bounced to the 61.8% retracement at 1.4190 (london high) in early London and was rejected. Since then London has printed a lower high at 1.4187 and a sequence of lower highs against a flat 1.4175 floor, tested four times, with RSI(14) near 37. Price sits below both EMAs ahead of ADP and US core PCE, with USD correcting on Williams' 'no urgency' remarks.
Support: 1.41747, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.41871, 1.41896, 1.41997
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4175 session low breaks the flat floor, with 1.4150 psych as the next marker
M15 close above the 1.4187 lower high and the lower-high trendline breaks the London sequence, with the 1.4190 london high and 1.4200 asia high above
ADP at 12:15 GMT and core PCE at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
10:46 UTC
Sideways-to-lower after failure at 1.4200 · RSI 46 · price 1.41808
1.4175–1.4190 range with lower highs under a double top.
The Asia push to 1.4200 was rejected a second time after yesterday's NY high, forming a double top. That NY high gave way to Williams' 'no rush' remarks and a drop to 1.4175. Since the pre-London sell-off, price has been ranging between the 1.4175 range low and the 1.4190 London high. The range low has held four times, while lower highs are capped near the 50–61.8% pullback fib under a falling resistance line.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4190, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4175 range low completes the double top, with 1.4150 psych as the next marker
Close above the 1.4190 London high breaks the lower-high resistance line and reopens the 1.4200 double top
US ADP at 12:15 GMT and core PCE at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
London broke below the Asian range and has chopped between the 1.4175 range floor, tested five times in 24h, and the 1.4190 London high, with the 1.4187 lower high extending the lower-highs sequence off the 1.4200 range top. The 1.4200 range top has rejected price twice as USD corrects on Williams' dovish tilt. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4187, 1.4190, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4175 range floor breaks the 24h range
Reclaim of the 1.4187 lower high and the 1.4190 London high breaks the lower-highs sequence
ADP at 12:15 GMT and core PCE at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; a hot print puts the 1.4200 range top back in play
10:16 UTC
Range after Asia-to-Europe pullback · RSI 46 · price 1.41817
London range 1.4175–1.4190, lower highs from Asian high.
USDCAD slipped from the 1.4200 Asian high into early Europe as the dollar held below its highs into month-end and PCE. London has since boxed price between the 1.4175 London low, which also marked yesterday's NY low and has held three times, and the 1.4190 London high, where rebounds stall near the 61.8% fib of the drop. The lower-highs line from the Asian high still caps price.
Support: 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4190, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4190 London high and the lower-highs line reopens the 1.4200 Asian high
Failure to hold the 1.4175 London low confirms a range break lower
US ADP at 12:15 GMT and core PCE at 12:30 GMT, roughly 2h out, could materially shift this read
10:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalling at support · RSI 47 · price 1.41817
Asian range broken lower; London compressing 1.4175–1.4190 with lower highs.
The Asian range (1.4190–1.4200) broke lower just before London open. The London low at 1.4175 has since held four times and matches yesterday's two lows. Mid-London, price is coiling in a tight 1.4175–1.4190 band beneath the London highs trendline, RSI(14) neutral near 47, with USD firm but capped into US data.
Support: 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4190, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4175 london low breaks the triple base carried over from yesterday
Recovery above the 1.4190 asian low (61.8% of the drop fib) puts price back inside the Asian range, with the 1.4200 asian high as the next reference
A break of the London highs trendline would end the lower-high sequence
US ADP at 12:15 GMT and core PCE at 12:30 GMT (~2h) are likely to resolve the London range
09:46 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since Asia · RSI 49 · price 1.41848
1.4175–1.4190 session range, floor held repeatedly.
Asia stalled just under the 1.4200 round number, then slid pre-London to the 1.4175 session low, a floor also held twice yesterday. London has chopped in a 1.4175–1.4190 range, with lower highs capping near the 50–61.8% Asia fib retrace as price flattens on EMA20 ahead of US ADP and core PCE, with CAD already stretched.
Support: 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4190, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4175 session low breaks a floor tested four times in 24h
Close above the 1.4190 session high clears the lower highs and reopens the 1.4200 round number
ADP at 12:15 GMT and core PCE at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
USD/CAD slipped out of the 1.4190–1.4200 Asian range before London as the dollar eased on Williams' 'no rush' remarks. The 1.4175 range floor, also Tuesday's double low, has held on four tests, but London highs are stepping lower from 1.4189 and bounces stall near the 50–61.8% fib of the Asian-high sell-off. RSI(14) is neutral near 46.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4189, 1.4200
What it said to watch
US ADP (12:15 GMT) and core PCE (12:30 GMT) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.4175 range floor breaks the two-day base and exposes the 1.4150 psych level
Close above the 1.4189 london high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 1.4200 asian high
Asian range broken lower; London range 1.4175–1.4190 with a lower high at 1.4186.
USDCAD slipped out of the 1.4190–1.4200 Asian range before London open, tracking the dollar's pullback after Williams' 'no urgency' remarks. The 1.4175 day low has now held four times since yesterday's London session. The London bounce stalled at the 1.4190 London high, near the 61.8% fib of the drop from the Asian high. A 1.4186 lower high has since formed, with price back at the range floor and RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 1.4175
Resistance: 1.41862, 1.41896, 1.41997
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4175 day low extends the range break toward the 1.4150 marker
Recovery through the 1.4186 lower high and 1.4190 London high puts price back inside the Asian range, negating the break
US ADP at 12:15 GMT and core PCE at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; a hot print puts the 1.4200 Asian high back in focus
Lower highs in London onto flat 1.4175 range floor.
USDCAD has held a 1.4175–1.4200 range for 24h. The range top at 1.4200 was rejected again at the Asian high after Williams' no-rush remark had already knocked the pair off it overnight. Pre-London selling broke the Asian range and London highs are now stepping lower at the 1.4190 london high, pressing onto the range floor at 1.4175, which is on its fourth test.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4190, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4175 range floor breaks the 24h range and exposes the 1.4150 round number
Recovery above the 1.4190 london high breaks the lower-high line and returns focus to the 1.4200 range top
US ADP 12:15 UTC and core PCE 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
24h range 1.4175–1.4200; lower highs since the Asian high.
After a rejection just under the 1.4200 range top in Asia, USD/CAD slid before London as the dollar eased on Williams' no-urgency remarks, but the 1.4175 range low held twice in early London. The bounce stalled at the 61.8% fib near the 1.4190 London high. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 40, still inside the 24h range.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4190, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4175 range low breaks the 24h range and exposes the 1.4150 half-figure
Close above the 1.4190 London high and the descending lower-highs line reopens the 1.4200 range top
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD is still boxed between the 1.4175 range floor and the 1.4200 range top, which rejected price three times in 24h, including after Williams' 'no rush' remark. London opened with a slide through the asian low at 1.4182. The range floor held twice and price is back inside at 1.4186, with the bounce capped at a lower high near 1.4190 (roughly the 50–61.8% fib of the drop).
Support: 1.4182, 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4190, 1.4200
What it said to watch
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.4175 range floor breaks the three-session range
Recovery through the 1.4190 lower high puts the 1.4200 range top back in play
Slip back below the asian low at 1.4182 turns the London false break into continuation
USDCAD has held a 1.4175–1.4200 range for 24h. A third rejection at the 1.4200 range top in late Asia dropped price to the 1.4175 range low, which held twice into the London open. The bounce high at 1.4190 stalled near the 61.8% retrace of that drop, leaving price mid-range under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 40, as a heavily priced hawkish Fed path meets stretched USD/CAD into US data.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4190, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4175 range low breaks the double bottom and exposes the 1.4150 pullback zone
Reclaim of the 1.4190 bounce high puts the 1.4200 range top back in play; acceptance above opens 1.4250
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
08:02 UTC
Sideways, soft below EMAs · RSI 40 · price 1.41843
24h range 1.4175–1.4200; London bounce making a lower high.
USDCAD has held a 1.4175–1.4200 range for the past 24h. The Asian range topped just under the 1.4200 psych level, matching the pair's earlier failures there. A slide from 05:30 UTC broke the Asian low and tested the range low at 1.4175 twice around London open. The bounce stalled at the 1.4190 session high near the 61.8% retracement, and price now sits on the 38.2%.
Support: 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4190, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4175 range low breaks a floor tested four times in 24h
Acceptance above the 1.4190 session high reopens the 1.4200 psych cap
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
07:46 UTC
Intraday pullback inside a 1.4175–1.4200 range · RSI 38 · price 1.41817
Lower highs from 1.4200 onto a flat 1.4175 range floor.
Early-London selling broke USD/CAD out of the 1.4190–1.4200 Asian range and down to the 1.4175 range floor, now tested four times in 24h. Rebounds keep printing lower highs, capped at the 1.4189 London high, as the stretched pair cools into US ADP and core PCE. Price sits at the 38.2% retracement of the Asia drop, with RSI(14) near 38 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4189, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4175 range floor would break the four-touch base and extend the range break
Recovery above the 1.4189 London high and back into the Asian range would neutralise the lower-highs line and reopen the 1.4200 prior high
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC are likely to expand ranges well beyond the current ~4.5-pip ATR
07:31 UTC
Sideways, pressing range floor · RSI 36 · price 1.41773
24h range 1.4175–1.4200, lower high at 1.4189.
USDCAD is holding a 1.4175–1.4200 range. Asia's push to the range top met a third rejection, and the pre-London Asia drop then brought a third test of the 1.4175 range low. The 06:45 UTC bounce stalled at a 1.4189 lower high, about 57% of the drop, and price now sits under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 36 at London open, with the stretched USD bid into core PCE failing to clear 1.4200.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4189, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4175 range low breaks the 24h range, with the 1.4150 round number as the next reference
Recovery through the 1.4189 lower high puts the 1.4200 range top back in play
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) around the NY open could materially shift this read
07:16 UTC
Sideways, pulled back from range top · RSI 45 · price 1.41864
24h range 1.4175–1.4200; early-London sweep of swing low, rebound to mid-range.
Supply capped the 1.4200 range top three times in 24h, including the NY drop on Williams' 'no rush' remarks. The early-London slide broke the Asian range low and swept the 1.4175 swing low before rebounding to 1.4186, the 50% fib of the Asia-high drop, just under the ema20 at 1.4190. RSI(14) is neutral near 45.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4190, 1.4200
What it said to watch
Acceptance back above the ema20 at 1.4190 returns price to the Asian range
M15 close above the 1.4200 range top ends the range read
Failure to hold the 1.4175 swing low after the sweep confirms a range break, with the 1.4150 pullback zone next
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
24h range 1.4175–1.4200, third test of the floor in early London.
USDCAD has been rejected at the 1.4200 range top three times in 24h: London Tuesday, NY after Williams' 'no rush' remarks, and again in the Asian session. The range floor at 1.4175 has held on each drop, most recently at 06:15 UTC. Price is now around the fib 50% of the Asia-high-to-low drop, just under the 1.4189 bounce high and below both EMAs.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4150
Resistance: 1.4189, 1.4200
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4189 bounce high puts the 1.4200 range top back in play; a clean break there ends the range read
Failure at the range floor, 1.4175, opens the 1.4150 pullback zone
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
06:46 UTC
Range-bound, sharp pre-London drop to range floor · RSI 28 · price 1.41773
24h range 1.4175–1.4200; Asian range broken lower, third test of swing low.
Pre-London trade rejected the 1.4200 range top a third time and broke the 1.4182 Asian low, sliding about 25 pips in five bars. Price briefly swept below the 1.4175 swing low, which held twice yesterday, including the Williams 'no rush' drop. It is now sitting just above that swing low, with RSI(14) near 28.
Support: 1.4175, 1.4170
Resistance: 1.4182, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4175 swing low breaks the 24h range and exposes 1.4170 psych
Reclaim of the 1.4182 Asian low puts price back inside the range and neutralises the break
A 50% retrace of the Asian high to 1.4175 drop sits near 1.4187, the first test of whether the move extends
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot print puts the 1.4200 range top back in focus
24h range 1.4175–1.4200; Asian range broken to the downside, price on range floor.
A third rejection just under the 1.4200 range top late in Asia gave way to a 20-pip slide through the Asian low at 1.4182 ahead of London open. Price now sits on the 1.4175 range floor, which held twice yesterday, with RSI(14) near 29.
Support: 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4182, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4175 range floor breaks the 24h range lower
Reclaim of the 1.4182 Asian low puts price back inside the Asian range
Another stall under the 1.4200 range top keeps the range read intact
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Asian range 1.4190–1.4200 broken lower; lower high under 1.4200.
USD/CAD stalled a third time at the 1.4200 round number late in Asia, after London and NY highs of 1.4201 and 1.41995, and has slipped below the Asian low at 1.4190 into the European pre-open. Price is now about halfway down the rally from the 1.4175 day low, RSI(14) near 34, as the stretched pair heads into US ADP and core PCE.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4190, 1.4200
What it said to watch
A reclaim of the 1.4190 Asian low puts price back inside the Asian range
Failure to hold the 1.4182 pivot lows exposes the 1.4175 day low, where demand held twice on Tuesday
A close above the 1.4200 round number would break the triple cap
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
1.4175–1.4200 range, third rejection at range top, asian low broken.
A third rejection at the 1.4200 range top late in the Asia session pushed USDCAD back below the asian low at 1.4190, beyond the 61.8% of the Asia rally fib, about an hour before London open. The range floor at 1.4175 held twice Tuesday, including on the NY-hours drop after Williams' 'no rush' remarks. The rollover low at 1.4182 is the nearest reference, with RSI(14) near 34.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4190, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4175 range floor breaks the two-day range and confirms a lower low
Recovery back above the 1.4190 asian low neutralises the Asia rally fib breakdown
Hold of the 1.4182 rollover low into London open keeps price mid-range
Fourth test of the 1.4200 range top; a sustained break opens the 1.4250 area cited in the news
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:46 UTC
Range-bound, stalled under 1.4200 · RSI 43 · price 1.41933
1.4175–1.4200 range; Asia push rejected at range top, pre-London.
The Asia session drove USDCAD back to the 1.4200 range top, its third failed test since yesterday's London high, and price has slipped to 1.4193 near the 61.8% of the Asia leg with RSI(14) ~43. The range floor at 1.4175 held twice yesterday, including the NY drop on Williams' 'no rush' remarks.
Support: 1.4190, 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4200 range top breaks the three-test cap
Loss of the 1.4190 asian low exposes the 1.4175 range floor
Break of the 1.4175 range floor turns the range into a lower-low sequence
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Late Asia session, price is holding inside a tight 1.4190–1.4200 Asian range after a third rejection at the 1.4200 prior high cap. Lows have risen steadily since the 1.4175 prior low, which held twice, including the NY dip on Williams' 'no rush' remarks, and price now sits on that rising support line. RSI(14) is flat near 50 and ATR(14) is about 2 pips, so conditions are compressed ahead of US core PCE, with Fed-hike bets underpinning USD.
Support: 1.4190, 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4201, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4201 prior high breaks the 1.4200 cap and opens the 1.4250 5-month high
Loss of rising support and the 1.4190 asian low returns focus to the 1.4175 prior low
London open around 07:00 UTC is the first test of the compressed Asian range
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:16 UTC
Range, Asia grinding into the top · RSI 62 · price 1.41978
1.4175–1.4201 range; higher lows through Asia pressing the range top.
Late Asia session has lifted price back to the 1.4200 range top, which rejected twice yesterday (London morning at 1.4201, NY afternoon at 1.4200). The second slide, on Williams' 'no rush' comment, held the 1.4175 swing low. Asia has printed higher lows at the 1.4182 asian low and the 1.4191 higher low, with ATR near 2 pips showing tight compression ahead of London.
Support: 1.41914, 1.4182, 1.41751
Resistance: 1.4201
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4201 range top breaks the double rejection and opens 1.4250
Loss of the 1.4191 higher low turns the Asia climb into another rejection at the range top
A break of the 1.4182 asian low puts the 1.4175 swing low back in play
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC can materially shift this read
05:02 UTC
Range-bound, grinding higher into range top · RSI 62 · price 1.41978
1.4175–1.4201 range; Asia session printing rising lows into a third test of the top.
Late Asia session has walked USDCAD along a line of rising lows back to the 1.4200 range top, which rejected price twice on Tuesday: once in London, once in NY on Williams' 'no rush' remarks. The range floor at 1.4175 held on both drops, RSI(14) sits near 62 and ATR is a thin 2.4 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.41898, 1.41751
Resistance: 1.4201, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4201 range top breaks the range and opens the 5-month high at 1.4250
Break of the rising lows and the 1.4190 asian low returns focus to the 1.4175 range floor; the recovery fib 50% sits near 1.4187
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; quarter-end London fix flows may add noise
04:46 UTC
Range-bound, pressing range top · RSI 62 · price 1.41984
1.4175–1.4201 range; Asia higher lows back to the top.
Asia has ground back to the 1.4200 cap and the 1.4201 prior high, rejected twice yesterday. The second rejection came on Williams' 'no rush' remarks and bottomed at the 1.4175 swing low. A rising support line off the Asian low near 1.4190 is holding into London open, with RSI(14) at 62 and ATR only 2.5 pips.
Support: 1.4190, 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4201, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4201 prior high breaks the 1.4200 cap; the 1.4250 5-month high is the next reference
Loss of rising support and the 1.4190 asian low returns price to range mid
Break below the 1.4175 swing low ends the range read
ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; quarter-end fix flows add noise
04:31 UTC
Range-bound, Asia drift higher · RSI 62 · price 1.41976
1.4175–1.4201 range; higher lows since NY close, pressing range top.
USDCAD is back testing the 1.4200 range top in late Asia after two London/NY rejections there Tuesday. The second rejection followed Williams' 'no rush' remarks and sent price back to the 1.4175 range low, where buyers stepped in twice. Higher lows along a rising trendline from the 1.4182 swing low since the NY close have carried price to a 1.4198 Asia high, with RSI(14) near 62 and ATR at a thin ~3 pips.
Support: 1.4190, 1.4182, 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4198, 1.4201
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4201 range top breaks the double top and opens the 1.4250 five-month high
Break of the rising trendline and the 1.4190 Asia low shifts focus back to the 1.4175 range low
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; quarter-end fix flows add noise
04:16 UTC
Sideways, Asia grinding higher into range top · RSI 61 · price 1.41973
24h range 1.4175–1.4201; higher lows through Asia off 1.4175.
USDCAD has held a 1.4175–1.4201 range for 24h. Sellers turned it back from the range top in London and again in NY, where Williams' 'no rush' remark sent it to the range low at 1.4175 a second time. Asia has since printed higher lows along a rising trendline and is pressing 1.4200 again late in the session. RSI(14) is near 61 and ATR is about 3 pips.
Support: 1.4190, 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4201
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4201 range top ends the range read after two rejections
Loss of the 1.4190 asian low breaks the Asia higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Range low at 1.4175 marks the floor of the 24h range
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; quarter-end London fix flows may add noise
04:02 UTC
Range-bound, Asia grinding higher · RSI 61 · price 1.41973
1.4175–1.4201 range; higher lows through Asia pressing range top.
USDCAD has held a 1.4175–1.4201 range since Tuesday. The range top rejected twice, first at the 1.4201 London high and again at 1.41995 in NY, where the second drop came on Williams' 'no rush' remarks. Buyers defended the 1.4175 range low both times. Asia has printed higher lows along a rising trendline from the 1.4182 asian low, with an asia hl at 1.4191, and is pressing 1.4200 again with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 1.41914, 1.4182, 1.41751
Resistance: 1.4201
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4201 range top breaks the twice-rejected cap
Loss of the Asian rising trendline and the 1.4191 asia hl turns focus back to the 1.4182 asian low, then the 1.4175 range low
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Quarter-end flows around the London fix may distort range edges
03:46 UTC
Sideways, compressing in late Asia · RSI 51 · price 1.41935
1.4175–1.4201 range; Asia higher lows beneath 1.4198.
Late Asia session, USDCAD sits mid-range between the 1.4175 range low, which held in both London and NY, and the 1.4201 prior high, rejected in London and again in NY on Williams' 'no rush' remarks. Asia has built higher lows off the 1.4182 swing low with the 1.4198 Asian high capping. RSI(14) is neutral near 51 and ATR has compressed to about 2.6 pips ahead of US PCE.
Support: 1.4190, 1.4182, 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4198, 1.4201
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4201 prior high breaks the double rejection and invalidates the range read
Loss of the 1.4190 Asian low and the Asia higher-lows trendline turns focus back to the 1.4182 swing low
Break of the 1.4175 range low would mark a lower-low beneath the London and NY lows
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Sideways, pinned just under 1.4200 · RSI 50 · price 1.4192
1.4175–1.4201 range; tight Asian range at the top.
Late Asia session, USDCAD is compressing in a 1.4190–1.4198 Asian range, just below the 1.4200 cap. That cap rejected price twice on Tuesday, at the 1.4201 prior high in London and 1.4200 in NY, the second time on Williams' 'no rush' comment. Demand held the 1.4175 swing low twice, and ATR near 2.8 pips reflects thin pre-London conditions ahead of US PCE.
Support: 1.4190, 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4198, 1.4201
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4201 prior high breaks the 1.4200 cap and the range read
Loss of the 1.4190 Asian low exposes the 1.4175 swing low
Break of the 1.4175 swing low would end the two-touch range floor
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Range-bound, upper half of 24h range · RSI 53 · price 1.4193
1.4175–1.4200 range; higher lows off floor through Asia.
USDCAD is holding the upper half of a 1.4175–1.4200 range. The 1.4200 range top capped the London and NY rallies twice, and the second fade came after Williams' no-rush-to-hike remarks. Late Asia is carving higher lows off the 1.4175 range floor inside a thin 1.4190–1.4198 Asian range, with ATR(14) at just 2.6 pips.
Support: 1.41898, 1.41751
Resistance: 1.41979, 1.4201
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4201 range top breaks the double-top cap; US ADP/Core PCE at 12:15–12:30 UTC is the likely catalyst.
Loss of the 1.4190 Asian low breaks the rising trendline and reopens the 1.4175 range floor.
A break of the 1.4198 Asian high before London open puts the range top back in play.
Quarter-end (Sep 30) rebalancing flows could distort London-NY price action.
USDCAD was rejected twice below 1.4200: at the 1.4201 day high in London and at 1.41995 in NY, where the second slide followed Williams' 'no rush' remarks. Both drops found demand at the 1.4175 day low. Higher lows since, at the 1.4182 swing low and the 1.4190 Asian low, have compressed price into a 1.4190–1.4198 Asian range, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and price sitting on the rising support line.
Support: 1.4190, 1.4182, 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4198, 1.4201
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4201 day high breaks the double rejection and ends the range read
Loss of the 1.4190 Asian low and the rising support line exposes the 1.4182 swing low, then the 1.4175 day low
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:46 UTC
Range-bound, grinding higher in Asia · RSI 58 · price 1.41951
1.4175–1.4201 range; Asia higher lows pressing range top.
USDCAD has been held in a 1.4175–1.4201 range. It printed a double top at 1.4200 during London and NY, and the second rejection came after Williams said there is no rush to hike. The drop stalled at a double low near 1.4175. The Asia session has built higher lows from the 1.4182 swing low through the 1.4190 asia hl, with price now just under the 1.4198 session high on a subdued 2.7-pip ATR.
Support: 1.4190, 1.4182, 1.4175
Resistance: 1.41979, 1.4201
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4201 double top breaks the range and opens ~1.4250
Loss of the 1.4190 asia hl and the rising Asia trendline returns focus to the 1.4182 swing low and the 1.4175 double low
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
24h range 1.4175–1.4201 with rising lows pressing the range top in Asia.
Asia session is pushing back toward the 1.4201 prior high, capped twice yesterday in London and late NY; the NY-afternoon drop after Williams' no-rush-to-hike remarks held the 1.4175 range low. Rising lows since then (1.4175, the 1.4182 rollover low, the 1.4190 asian low) compress price under the range top, RSI(14) ~63.
Support: 1.4190, 1.4182, 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4201
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4201 prior high breaks the range top and opens the path toward the ~1.4250 five-month high
Loss of the 1.4190 asian low breaks the rising lows trendline
Break of the 1.4182 rollover low re-exposes the 1.4175 range low
US ADP 12:15 UTC and core PCE 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Range-bound, higher lows into range top · RSI 64 · price 1.41966
1.4175–1.4201 range, higher lows since the 1.4175 NY low, third test of 1.4200.
USDCAD is pressing the 1.4201 range top for a third time in the Asia session. The level capped London and NY yesterday, and the second rejection came on Williams' 'no rush to hike' remark, which sent price to the 1.4175 range low. Higher lows since then, most recently the asian low at 1.4190, are riding a rising trendline, with RSI(14) near 64 and not stretched.
Support: 1.4190, 1.4182, 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4201, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4201 range top opens the 1.4250 5-month high
Break of the rising trendline and the 1.4190 asian low exposes the 1.4182 swing low
Failure to hold the 1.4175 range low turns the two 1.4200 rejections into a lower-high sequence
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC, f/c 0.3% MoM) could materially shift this read
1.4175–1.4201 range; Asia session broke its Asian range high and is pressing the 1.4200 cap.
USDCAD traded a 1.4175–1.4201 range through London and NY. It was rejected twice at 1.4200, first at the london high and again after Williams said there is no rush to hike, while a double bottom formed at 1.4175. The Asia session has built higher lows and just cleared the 1.4195 asia high above its 1.4182 asian low, retesting the 1.4200 cap with RSI(14) near 64.
Support: 1.41945, 1.4182, 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4201, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4201 london high breaks the double top and opens the 1.4250 5-month high
Slip back below the 1.4195 asia high returns price to the Asian range and exposes the 1.4182 asian low
Loss of the 1.4175 double btm (double bottom) breaks the higher lows trendline and the range floor
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.3% MoM) could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Sideways, mild upward drift in Asia · RSI 66 · price 1.41936
1.4175–1.4200 range with a double top at 1.4200 and rising lows since the late-NY low.
USDCAD was rejected twice at the 1.4200 double top, first in the London morning and again late in NY after Williams said there is no rush to hike, and the range low at 1.4175 held both times. Early Asia is compressing in a 5-pip band between the asian low at 1.4190 and the asian high at 1.41945, with rising lows off 1.4175 and the 1.4182 swing low; RSI(14) is near 66 and ATR is under 3 pips.
Support: 1.4190, 1.4182, 1.4175
Resistance: 1.41945, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4200 double top invalidates the range read and removes the twice-rejected cap
Break of the asian low at 1.4190 and the rising-lows line puts the 1.4182 swing low in play
Failure to hold 1.4182 exposes the 1.4175 range low for a third test
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) later today could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Recovering within 1.4175–1.4200 day range · RSI 60 · price 1.41925
Double top at 1.4200, higher low at 1.4182, Asia compressing.
USDCAD was rejected twice at 1.4200, once in the London morning and again late NY. That forms a double top, and the NY drop on Williams' no-rush remarks found a double low at 1.4175. Price has retraced about 70% of that NY drop, and the Asia session is compressing in a 5-pip band between the asian low at 1.4189 and the asian high at 1.4194, holding above rising support from the 1.4175 low through the 1.4182 higher low.
Support: 1.4189, 1.4182, 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4194, 1.4200, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4200 double top invalidates the rejection read; the 5-month high at 1.4250 is the next reference
Loss of the asian low at 1.4189 and rising support exposes the 1.4182 higher low
A break of the 1.4175 double low confirms the double top
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read; quarter-end flows add noise
01:03 UTC
Sideways, upper half of day's range · RSI 54 · price 1.41925
1.4175–1.4201 range; Asia coiling below the top.
USDCAD held a 1.4175–1.4201 range through London and NY. A double top formed at 1.4200: the first rejection came mid-London and the second in late NY, on Williams' no-rush remarks, while the range low at 1.4175 held twice. Asia is drifting in a 7-pip band between the 1.4187 asian low and the 1.4194 asian high, with RSI(14) neutral and ATR near 3 pips.
Support: 1.41867, 1.4182, 1.41751
Resistance: 1.4194, 1.4201
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4201 double top invalidates the range read
Loss of the 1.4187 asian low and the 1.4182 spike low exposes the 1.4175 range low
Break below the 1.4175 range low turns the double top into a completed reversal
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Quarter-end flows on Sep 30 may distort the range edges
00:46 UTC
Sideways, recovering toward range top · RSI 59 · price 1.41924
1.4175–1.4200 range, lower half reclaimed in quiet Asia trade.
USD/CAD was rejected twice at the 1.4200 cap, in London and again late NY, where the Williams-linked drop found the 1.4175 swing low for a second time. The Asia session has since recovered above the 61.8% of that NY drop fib. Price is holding a tight band between the 1.4182 asian low and the 1.4194 session high, with ATR compressed near 3 pips.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4194, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4200 cap breaks the range and turns the two prior rejections into a failed top
Loss of the 1.4182 asian low returns price to the 1.4175 swing low; a break there completes the range-top rejection
A push through the 1.4194 session high puts the 1.4200 cap back in focus
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read. Month-end flows add two-way risk
00:31 UTC
Range-bound, grinding higher in early Asia · RSI 52 · price 1.41933
1.4175–1.4200 range, double top at cap, higher low at 1.4182.
USDCAD hit a double top near 1.4200, rejected in London and again in NY. The second failure came on Williams' no-rush remarks and dropped the pair to the 1.4175 NY low, which held twice. Early Asia has retraced about 75% of that drop and is pressing the 1.4194 Asian high above rising support, with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4194, 1.4200
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4200 double top breaks the two-rejection range cap
Loss of the 1.4182 Asian low undercuts the higher low and rising support, exposing the 1.4175 NY low
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
00:16 UTC
Sideways after twin failures at 1.4200 · RSI 57 · price 1.41915
Range 1.4175–1.4201, compressing in early Asia.
USDCAD was capped twice at the 1.4200 double top, in London and again late NY after Williams' no-rush remarks. The late-NY drop found the 1.4175 swing low and the pair has since held near its 61.8% retrace. Early Asia is compressing between the 1.4182 overnight lo and the 1.4193 overnight hi, with RSI(14) neutral at 57.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4193 overnight hi puts the 1.4200 double top back in play; a close through 1.4201 breaks the range
Loss of the 1.4182 overnight lo exposes the 1.4175 swing low; a break below it and the 1.4173 Asian low ends the range read
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) Wed, plus month/quarter-end flows, could materially shift this read
00:02 UTC
Sideways, mild recovery off range lows · RSI 60 · price 1.41915
1.4175–1.4200 range; higher low at 1.4182 after twin lows.
USDCAD capped twice at 1.4200 (1.4201 London, 1.41995 NY), the second fade tied to Williams' no-rush remarks, while twin lows at 1.4175 held for a 1.4175–1.4200 session range. Early Asia sits at 1.4191, just under the 1.4193 overnight high, with the 1.4182 rollover low forming a higher low on the rising lows line.
Support: 1.4182, 1.4175
Resistance: 1.4193, 1.4200
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4193 overnight high puts the 1.4200 double top back in play; a close above 1.4200 breaks the range
Loss of the 1.4182 rollover low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 1.4175 twin lows
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) Wed, plus month/quarter-end flows, could materially shift this read