21:04 UTC
Uptrend since Aug 20, first pullback off highs · RSI 64 · price 0.82874
HH/HL chain intact; rejection at 16-month high, Friday dip held on close.
Six-week uptrend from the Aug 20 low at 0.7950. Higher lows at 0.8052 (sep 3 low) and 0.8183 (Sep 22 swing low) carried price to a 16m high at 0.8382 on Oct 1, with EMA(50) rising beneath and RSI pressing near 80. That high drew a 48-pip rejection day as franc safe-haven demand returned, and Friday's NFP miss (29K vs 90K) extended the drop to the 0.8227 nfp low, just above the 38.2% fib. The session then closed back at 0.8287, wicking through the rising trendline but holding above it, so the weekly higher-low sequence is still intact with RSI cooled to the mid-60s.
Support: 0.8227, 0.8183, 0.8052
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8382
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 0.8227 nfp low and the rising trendline would be the first break of the Aug–Oct higher-low chain
- Loss of the 0.8183 swing low breaks daily structure and exposes the 50% fib and EMA(50) near 0.8165, then the 0.8052 sep 3 low
- Daily close back above the 0.8300 round number would put the 0.8382 16m high back in play
- ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7): a beat that rebuilds Oct hike odds or a miss that pushes them toward zero could decide the 0.8300 / 0.8227 test
- FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC; SNB intervention rhetoric is a tail risk if franc strength accelerates