Lower highs below 0.8300; thin 0.8279–0.8290 Asian range.
Friday's NFP miss spiked USDCHF to the 0.8227 nfp low before a full NY recovery, which hit rejection at the 0.8298 ny high just under 0.8300. Since then the pair has printed lower highs. The thin Sunday Asia open is ranging between the 0.8279 asian low and the 0.8290 asian high, below EMA20 and near the 23.6% fib of the NFP rebound.
Support: 0.8279, 0.82674, 0.82271
Resistance: 0.82901, 0.82978
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8279 asian low extends the lower-highs sequence toward the 0.8267 swing low (38.2% fib zone ~0.8271)
M15 close above the 0.8290 asian high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.8298 ny high / 0.8300 area
Thin Asia liquidity: ATR near 3 pips, so range breaks before London open carry less weight
ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read; a beat would revive Fed hike pricing
Lower highs off 0.8298, new Asia session low at 0.8280.
In thin early Asia trade, USDCHF opened at 0.8284 and was capped at the 0.8290 session high, extending the lower-high sequence from the 0.8298 post-NFP high. It has since slipped to a 0.8280 session low, sitting on the 23.6% retrace of the NFP rebound from 0.8227. RSI(14) is near 37 with price under both EMAs, as the soft payrolls print and the CHF safe-haven bid keep the pair heavy.
Support: 0.8280, 0.8271, 0.8267
Resistance: 0.8284, 0.8290, 0.8298
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8280 session low exposes the fib 38.2 at 0.8271 and the 0.8267 swing low
Recovery above the 0.8284 sunday open and the 0.8290 session high would break the lower-high sequence
M15 close above the 0.8298 post-nfp hi ends the post-NFP range read
ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read via Oct hike odds
Lower highs off the 0.8298 post-NFP high, thin Asia range above 0.8280.
Early Asia trade is thin after a 3-pip weekend gap down from Friday's 0.8287 close. Price is holding just above a 0.8280 Asian low, below the 0.8290 Sunday high, extending the lower-highs drift from the 0.8298 post-NFP high. Friday's NFP miss spiked the pair to 0.8227 before the drop was bought back. The CHF safe-haven bid has kept that rebound capped, with RSI(14) near 42 and ATR(14) about 3 pips.
Support: 0.82803, 0.82737, 0.82674
Resistance: 0.82901, 0.82978, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Break below the 0.8280 Asian low exposes the 0.8274 swing low, near the 38.2% retrace of the post-NFP rebound
Failure at 0.8274 brings the 0.8267 post-nfp low into play
Close above the 0.8290 Sunday high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Reclaim of the 0.8298 post-NFP high and the 0.8300 round number would undo the drift read
ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) is the next high-impact risk; a beat could rebuild Oct hike odds
23:03 UTC
Post-NFP recovery stalling, drifting lower at weekly open · RSI 39 · price 0.8281
Lower highs from Friday's Asia high; price slipping under late-NY floor.
Friday's NFP miss spiked USDCHF to 0.8227 before a recovery to the 0.8298 ny high. That high marked another lower high after the 0.8327 asia high. The thin Sunday open gapped about 3 pips under Friday's close, faded from the 0.8290 sunday high and now sits at 0.8281 on the 23.6% retrace of the NFP swing, just above the 0.8280 sunday low.
Support: 0.8280, 0.8266, 0.8257
Resistance: 0.8290, 0.8298, 0.8327
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8280 sunday low exposes the 0.8266 london low, then the 0.8257 pre-nfp low near the 50% of the NFP swing
M15 close above the 0.8290 sunday high and 0.8298 ny high breaks the lower highs trendline
ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could re-price Oct hike odds and materially shift this read
Asia session liquidity is thin at the weekly open; the London open is where the session range gets tested
Lower highs from 0.8298, tight 0.8282–0.8290 band.
Monday's Asia open is flat at 0.8284 after a 3-pip weekend gap. Price sits between the late-Friday low at 0.8282 and the Sunday high at 0.8290, with RSI(14) near 45. Friday's NFP miss spiked the pair to 0.8227 before the NFP rebound reached 0.8298. Lower highs since that post-NFP high have the rebound only 19% retraced so far.
Support: 0.8282, 0.8267
Resistance: 0.8290, 0.8298
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8282 late-Friday low opens a test of the 0.8267 post-NFP low (38.2% of the NFP rebound)
A break of the Friday lower highs above the 0.8290 Sunday high puts the 0.8298 post-NFP high back in play
ISM Services PMI (Mon 14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read via Fed hike odds
Fresh bond sell-off or fiscal headlines driving CHF safe-haven demand
22:31 UTC
Post-NFP rebound faded, flat into the weekly open · RSI 51 · price 0.82864
Lower highs from 0.8298, tight 0.8282–0.8290 range on thin Sunday reopen.
The NFP miss spiked USDCHF to an NFP low of 0.8227 before it recovered to a post-NFP high at 0.8298, where it met rejection. Lower highs into Friday's close and a near-flat reopen leave price boxed between the Friday low at 0.8282 and the Sunday high at 0.8290. RSI(14) is neutral near 51 and ATR has compressed to about 3 pips ahead of the Asia session.
Support: 0.82823, 0.82674, 0.82271
Resistance: 0.82901, 0.82978
What it said to watch
M15 close above the Sunday high at 0.8290 challenges the lower-high sequence and the lower-highs line toward the post-NFP high at 0.8298
Failure to hold the Friday low at 0.8282 exposes the post-NFP low near 0.8267, roughly the 38.2% fib of the post-NFP rebound
ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) is the next high-impact risk and could materially shift this read
Sunday reopen liquidity is thin, so ranges may widen sharply once the Asia session is fully active
Tight 0.8282–0.8290 consolidation below the 0.8298 rebound high.
Friday's NFP miss flushed the pair to 0.8227 before a full NY recovery to the 0.8298 rebound high, then lower highs compressed it into 0.8282–0.8290 into the close. The thin Sunday open gapped about 3 pips lower to 0.8284. Early Asia is holding between the Sunday open and the 0.8290 Sunday high, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and price pinned to EMA20.
Support: 0.8284, 0.8282, 0.8267
Resistance: 0.8290, 0.8298
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8282 late low breaks the consolidation and exposes the 23.6% fib near 0.8281, then the 0.8267 post-NFP higher low
Close above the 0.8290 Sunday high puts the 0.8298 rebound high and the 0.8300 handle back in play
Early-Asia liquidity is thin, so moves before the London open may not hold
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC Monday (f/c 55.7) could re-price Fed hike odds and reset this range
22:03 UTC
Flat after post-NFP rebound · RSI 48 · price 0.82872
Tight range 0.8282–0.8289 under post-NFP high.
Friday's NFP miss spiked USDCHF to 0.8227, but the drop reversed and the rebound stalled at the 0.8298 post-NFP high. Late NY then compressed between the 0.8282 late-ny low and the 0.8289 late-ny cap. Sunday's thin open gapped 3 pips lower to 0.8284 and has already traded back to Friday's 0.8287 close, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 0.82842, 0.82823, 0.82708
Resistance: 0.82893, 0.82978, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8282 late-ny low and the 0.8284 sunday open breaks the consolidation and exposes the fib 38.2 near 0.8271
Close above the 0.8289 late-ny cap reopens the 0.8298 post-nfp hi and the 0.8300 round number
ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Thin early-Asia liquidity keeps ATR near 3 pips; current ranges may not hold into London open
Lower highs off the NY high into Friday close; tight 0.8282–0.8289 box, flat Sunday reopen.
The NFP miss spiked USD/CHF to 0.82271 before a NY recovery to the 0.82978 NY high. Lower highs then faded price into a tight box between the 0.82823 late low and the 0.82893 late cap, just above the 23.6% fib of the NFP rebound. Sunday's reopen is flat at 0.82842 on thin liquidity, with price below EMA20/50 and no new Asian range yet.
Support: 0.82823, 0.82674
Resistance: 0.82893, 0.82978
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.82823 late low exposes the 0.82674 post-nfp low near the 38.2% fib
Close above the 0.82893 late cap reopens the 0.82978 NY high
ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read via Oct hike odds
Thin Sunday/early Asia session liquidity; the opening range is not yet representative
Lower highs from NY high, tight 0.8282–0.8289 range into Sunday open.
Friday's franc safe-haven bid pulled price off the 0.8327 Asia high. The NFP miss then spiked it to a 0.8227 NFP low that was rejected, and the bounce stalled at the 0.8298 NY high. Lower highs since then compressed price between the 0.8282 late low and the 0.8289 late cap, and the Sunday open is flat at 0.8284, just under EMA20 and on EMA50.
Support: 0.82823, 0.82674, 0.82271
Resistance: 0.82893, 0.82978, 0.83267
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8289 late cap breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 0.8298 NY high
Failure to hold the 0.8282 late low opens the 0.8267 post-NFP higher low
Thin Sunday-open liquidity into the Asia session can distort the range edges
US ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read via Oct hike odds
Tight 0.8282–0.8290 range below the 0.8298 rebound high.
The NFP miss drove a spike to 0.8227 that was rejected within the bar. The nfp rebound then capped at 0.8298, and late NY drifted in a 0.8282–0.8290 range. The thin Sunday open is printing 0.8284, just under the 0.8287 Fri close, with price sitting below both EMAs and RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 0.82823, 0.82674
Resistance: 0.82874, 0.82978, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8282 swing low exposes the double post-nfp low at 0.8267, near the 38.2% fib of the rebound
Recovery through the Fri close at 0.8287 and the 0.8298 nfp rebound high reopens the 0.8300 psych level
Asia session open liquidity is thin; the early range may not hold into London
US ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read via Oct hike odds
21:03 UTC
Post-NFP rebound stalling, lower highs into Friday close · RSI 44 · price 0.82874
Tight 0.8282–0.8298 drift after V-recovery from the NFP spike low.
USD/CHF faded from the 0.8327 Asia high through London. The NFP miss briefly broke the London lows to 0.8227 before a full recovery to the 0.8298 rebound high under 0.8300 psych. Late NY has drifted lower along a descending trendline, with the late low at 0.8282 holding into the weekly close.
Support: 0.8282, 0.8267, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8298, 0.8300, 0.8327
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8282 late low exposes the 0.8267 post-NFP higher low and the 38.2% of the NFP rebound fib
Break of the late-drift trendline and a close above the 0.8298 rebound high puts 0.8300 psych and the 0.8327 Asia high back in focus
Monday Asia open gap risk after the weekend; ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could re-price Fed hike odds and shift this read
Retest of the 0.8227 NFP low would negate the false-break recovery