Double top near 0.8323, lower highs into tight post-NY range.
Monday's rally from the 0.8285 London low on broad USD strength stalled at a double top at 0.8324/0.8323, rejected just above the 0.8320 cap flagged in the CHF read. Price has since printed descending highs and is compressing at the 38.2% fib in a 0.8304–0.8311 range into the Asia session, with ATR down to about 2 pips.
Support: 0.83045, 0.82854
Resistance: 0.83154, 0.83235
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8315 lower high breaks the descending highs and reopens the double top at 0.8323
Failure to hold the 0.8304 range low (50% fib) exposes the 0.8285 London low
Tue ADP 12:15 UTC and Fed's Williams 13:05 UTC could materially shift this read via Oct hike odds
The rally off the 0.8285 london low stalled at the 0.8320 cap area in a double top at 0.8324/0.8323 through the ISM-services NY session. A slide in late NY broke the 0.8308 neckline, and early Asia is now compressing in a 7-pip 0.8304–0.8311 range near the 38.2% retracement of that rally, with ATR down to about 2.4 pips.
Support: 0.83042, 0.8300, 0.82854
Resistance: 0.83106, 0.83239
What it said to watch
Close above 0.8311 range top puts the neckline break in doubt and brings the 0.8324 double top back into view
Failure to hold 0.8304 range low exposes the 0.8300 round number, then the london low at 0.8285
Tuesday NY risk: ADP 4-wk avg (12:15 UTC), Fed Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) could break the current range
23:16 UTC
Flat after NY double top, mild lower drift · RSI 58 · price 0.83097
Tight early-Asia range 0.8304–0.8311 below NY highs.
The London rally from the 0.8285 London low stalled in a double top at 0.8323–0.8324 during NY hours, just above the 0.8320 cap flagged in the digest. The drift lower after NY held the 0.8304–0.8305 late low, the 50% retrace of the London-NY leg, and early Asia is compressing below Monday's 0.8316 Asian high with ATR near 2.5 pips.
Support: 0.83045, 0.82854
Resistance: 0.83159, 0.83239
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8316 asian high reopens a test of the 0.8324 double top
Failure to hold the 0.8304 late low and the 50% of the London-NY leg exposes the 0.8285 london low
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) on Tue could materially shift this read via October hike pricing
23:02 UTC
Pullback from NY high, now flat · RSI 57 · price 0.83091
Double top at 0.8324, tight base above 0.8304.
NY cleared the 0.8316 Asian high but was rejected twice at 0.8323–0.8324. That double top sits just under the 0.8320 cap, even with USD at fresh YTD highs on 10y yields. Price has since held the 50% retrace of the London-NY leg and is coiling in a 5-pip base above the 0.8304 base low into the Asia open, with ATR down near 2.6 pips.
Support: 0.83045, 0.82854
Resistance: 0.83159, 0.83239
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8304 base low ends the consolidation and exposes the 0.8285 london low
Recovery above the 0.8316 asian high puts the 0.8324 double top back in play
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) on Tuesday could shift this read via October hike odds
22:46 UTC
Intraday rally stalled, rolling over · RSI 50 · price 0.83085
Double top at 0.8324 with lower highs; post-NY range 0.8304–0.8309.
USDCHF climbed from the 0.8285 london low to a 0.8324 high in NY on the broad USD bid, but the 0.8320 cap from the digest held twice. That left a double top and a lower highs sequence. Price is now flat in a thin 0.8304–0.8309 band after the NY close, sitting between the 38.2% and 50% retrace of the London rally, with ATR down to about 3 pips.
Support: 0.83045, 0.8294, 0.82854
Resistance: 0.83154, 0.83239
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8304 late-ny low confirms the double top and exposes the 0.8294 asia low, then the 0.8285 london low
Reclaiming the 0.8315 lower highs line and retesting the 0.8324 double top would neutralise the reversal read
Asia session open may stay thin; Tue ADP (12:15 UTC) and Williams/Bowman Fed-speak later could reprice USD
Double top at 0.8324, now consolidating on the 50% retracement.
The London low at 0.8285 fed a rally to 0.8324 into NY on broad USD strength, but the pair was rejected twice under the 0.8320 cap and left a double top. It has since faded to a tight 0.8304–0.8309 band near the 50% retracement. The late-NY low at 0.8304 is holding into a quiet Asia session.
Support: 0.83045, 0.8300, 0.82854
Resistance: 0.83154, 0.83239
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8304 late-NY low exposes the 0.8300 fib 61.8 and the round number
Loss of 0.8300 shifts focus back to the 0.8285 London low
Reclaim of the 0.8315 breakdown point reopens the 0.8324 double top
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) plus the ADP 4-wk average (12:15 UTC) could shift this read
Double top at 0.8324 with the neckline giving way; tight post-NY range 0.8304–0.8309.
USD/CHF climbed from the 0.8285 london low into NY on broad USD strength, but was rejected twice at the 0.8324 session high, just under the 0.8320 cap noted in the CHF digest. Price has since slipped below the 0.8308 neckline and sits at the fib 50% near 0.8304–0.8305 as Asia opens. The range has compressed to about 5 pips and ATR is near 3 pips.
Support: 0.83045, 0.83001, 0.82854
Resistance: 0.83079, 0.83159, 0.83239
What it said to watch
Close below the fib 50% at 0.8304 completes the double top and exposes the fib 61.8% at 0.8300, then the london low at 0.8285
Reclaim of the 0.8308 neckline and the 0.8316 asian high reopens the 0.8324 session high
Tuesday's ADP (12:15 UTC) and Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) are the next scheduled USD catalysts, both after the Asian session
22:02 UTC
Intraday pullback after NY double top, momentum soft · RSI 39 · price 0.83049
Lower highs from the 0.8324 double top; tight post-NY range on the 50% fib.
The London-low rally from 0.8285 on broad USD strength stalled in a double top at 0.8324 during NY hours, a rejection just above the 0.8320 cap, followed by a lower high at 0.8315. Price has faded into a thin post-NY range capped by the post-ny high at 0.8309 and is sitting on the late ny low and 50% fib near 0.8305, below both EMAs.
Support: 0.83045, 0.8300, 0.82854
Resistance: 0.83089, 0.83154, 0.8324
What it said to watch
M15 close below the late ny low at 0.8304 exposes 0.8300, the 61.8% fib and round number
Close above the post-ny high at 0.8309 and the descending trendline neutralises the lower-high sequence toward the 0.8315 lower high
Double top at 0.8324 stays the session ceiling unless cleared; loss of the 0.8285 london low would undo the whole day's leg
Asia session open is next; Tue ADP 12:15 UTC and Fed's Williams 13:05 UTC could shift USD pricing
21:46 UTC
Pullback from NY high, flat into rollover · RSI 44 · price 0.83073
Asian high broken in NY, double top at 0.8324, lower-high fade to a tight 0.8305–0.8309 band.
NY session cleared the Asian high at 0.8316 but stalled twice at the 0.8324 double top, matching the 0.8320 cap on USD/CHF flagged in the CHF backdrop even with the USD at a fresh YTD high. Price faded into a 4-pip band above the ny low at 0.8305, close to the 50% fib of the London-low rally, with RSI(14) near 44 and ATR down to roughly 2.7 pips as the session winds down.
Support: 0.83045, 0.82854
Resistance: 0.83159, 0.83239
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8305 ny low and the 50% fib opens the 78.6% fib near 0.8293, with the 0.8285 london low beneath
Recovery above the 0.8316 asian high would neutralise the lower-high sequence off the double top
A clean break above the 0.8324 double top would take out the 0.8320 cap
Tue ADP 12:15 UTC and Fed's Williams 13:05 UTC could reprice Fed hike odds and move the pair
21:31 UTC
Intraday pullback after failed NY high, momentum fading · RSI 37 · price 0.83074
Double top at 0.8324, lower highs into a tight post-close range above 0.8305.
NY pushed through the Asian high to 0.8324. Supply then capped price twice at 0.8323–0.8324, forming a double top as the YTD-high dollar bid ran into the CHF haven cap near 0.8320. Price has since slid to the 0.8305 session low, which sits on the 50% retrace of the London low rally, and post-close trade is compressed in a ~3-pip ATR range with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 0.83045, 0.8294, 0.82854
Resistance: 0.83154, 0.83239
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8305 session low exposes the 0.8294 swing low, then the 0.8285 london low
Reclaim of the 0.8315 lower high negates the lower-highs read and reopens the 0.8324 double top
Tue ADP 12:15 UTC and Fed's Williams 13:05 UTC could materially shift this read
Double top near 0.8324 with a lower high, now basing at the 50% retrace.
The rally from the 0.8285 London low built on broad USD demand. It met a double top at 0.8323–0.8324, just above the 0.8320 cap, during NY hours; the ISM services miss was read as not dovish and did not trigger a break. Price has since printed a lower high at 0.8315 and is compressing at 0.8305–0.8309 after the NY close, on the ny low and 50% fib, with ATR(14) shrinking to about 3 pips.
Support: 0.83045, 0.8294, 0.82854
Resistance: 0.83092, 0.83154, 0.8323
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8304 ny low exposes the 61.8% near 0.8300 and the 0.8294 swing low
Reclaim of the fib 38.2 at 0.8309, then the 0.8315 lower high, neutralises the pullback read
Break above the 0.8324 double top clears the 0.8320 cap area
Below the 0.8294 swing low, the 0.8285 london low comes into view
Asia session liquidity is thin; Tuesday ADP and Fed's Williams/Bowman are the next USD catalysts
20:47 UTC
Pullback from day high, momentum fading · RSI 33 · price 0.8307
Double top at 0.8324, lower highs into a tight late-NY range above 0.8305.
The broad USD bid lifted the pair from the 0.8285 London low to a 0.8324 day high early in NY. A second test at 0.8323 stalled under the 0.8320 cap, completing a double top. Late NY has bled back to the 0.8305 swing low, the 50% retracement of that leg, and is compressing there in a 3-pip range with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 0.83045, 0.8294, 0.82854
Resistance: 0.83154, 0.83239
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8305 swing low extends the double-top unwind toward the 0.8294 asia low, then the 0.8285 london low
Reclaiming the 0.8315 lower high neutralises the double-top read
Close above the 0.8324 day high breaks the 0.8320 cap flagged in the CHF digest
Asia session is likely quiet; Tuesday's ADP and Fed's Williams/Bowman remarks could materially shift this read
20:32 UTC
Intraday rally stalled, drifting lower in late NY · RSI 37 · price 0.83076
Double top at 0.8323–0.8324, lower highs since 17:00 UTC, holding NY low.
The rally from the London low topped at a 0.83239 day high just before the ISM Services miss. A 17:00 UTC retest at 0.83233 failed, forming a double top under the 0.8320 cap. Late NY is compressing above the 0.83045 NY low near the 50% fib, below EMA20/50, with RSI(14) ~37 and ATR down to ~3.5 pips.
Support: 0.83045, 0.8300, 0.82854
Resistance: 0.83154, 0.83239
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.83154 lower high breaks the descending sequence off the double top
Loss of the 0.83045 NY low exposes the 61.8% fib near 0.8301 and the 0.8300 round number
Below 0.8300 the London low at 0.82854 is the next session pivot
Fed Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) Tuesday could shift the read ahead of Wednesday's FOMC Minutes
20:16 UTC
Intraday up-leg fading, drifting lower late NY · RSI 33 · price 0.83066
Double top at 0.8324, lower highs, sitting on NY low.
The rally from the 0.8285 London low ran through the 0.8316 Asian high but formed a double top at 0.8323–0.8324, rejected just above the 0.8320 cap flagged in the CHF digest. The ISM services miss barely dented USD, and late NY has printed lower highs back to the 0.8305 NY low, about the 50% fib of the London rally, with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 0.83045, 0.8300, 0.82854
Resistance: 0.83159, 0.83239
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8305 NY low exposes the 0.8300 round number, then the 0.8285 London low
Recovery above the 0.8316 Asian high breaks the late-NY lower highs and puts the 0.8324 double top back in play
No scheduled events in the next 8h. Asia session headlines on Middle East tensions or bond yields are the main risk to this read
20:02 UTC
Intraday pullback after a failed NY push higher · RSI 36 · price 0.83054
Double top at 0.8322–0.8324, neckline broken, lower highs since 17:00 UTC.
NY broke the 0.8316 Asian high but stalled twice at 0.8322–0.8324, forming a double top just above the 0.8320 cap. The slide that started after the ISM Services print later broke the 0.8308 neckline. Price now sits on the session low near 0.8305, the 50% fib of the London-low rally, with RSI(14) near 36 in thin late-NY trade.
Support: 0.83045, 0.8294, 0.82854
Resistance: 0.83079, 0.83159, 0.83239
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.8305 session low and the 61.8% fib at 0.8301 opens the asia dip low at 0.8294, then the london low at 0.8285
Recovery above the 0.8308 neckline and the 0.8316 asian high negates the double top read
No scheduled USD or CHF events in the next 8h; Tue US ADP 12:15 UTC and Fed Williams 13:05 UTC are the next USD catalysts
Double top at 0.8324 with neckline broken, lower highs since 17:00 UTC.
NY pushed through the 0.8316 Asian high to 0.8324 around the ISM Services print. A second test at 0.8323 was rejected, matching the 0.8320 cap flagged in the CHF digest, and late NY has slipped below the 0.8308 neckline, completing a small double top. Price now sits on the 50% fib of the 0.8288–0.8324 leg at the 0.8304 swing low, with lower highs stacking and RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 0.83045, 0.8300, 0.82854
Resistance: 0.83079, 0.83159, 0.83239
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8308 neckline negates the double top read
Failure to hold the 0.8304 swing low exposes 0.8300 psych and the 0.8285 London low
Break of the lower highs line and reclaim of the 0.8316 Asian high reopens the 0.8324 double top
Tue ADP 12:15 UTC and Fed Williams/Bowman 13:05/14:45 UTC could shift USD pricing
The NY session pushed through the Asian high at 0.8316 to a session high of 0.8324. A soft ISM Services print and the 0.8320 cap stalled the move there, and the 17:00 UTC retest failed at 0.8323, leaving a double top. Late NY has slipped back below the Asian high to the 0.8305 swing low, which lines up with the 50% fib of the London low-to-high leg. Price sits under EMA20/50, RSI(14) is 37 and ATR is about 4 pips.
Support: 0.83045, 0.8300, 0.82854
Resistance: 0.83159, 0.83239
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8305 swing low / 50% fib exposes the 0.8300 round number
Clearing the 0.8300 round number brings the 0.8285 london low back into view
Recovery back above the 0.8316 asian high weakens the double top read
Close above the 0.8324 session high invalidates the double top and the 0.8320 cap
No scheduled US/CHF data in the next 8h; Fed Williams Tue 13:05 UTC is the next event risk
19:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalling, rolling over late NY · RSI 38 · price 0.83065
Double top at 0.8323-24 under the 0.8320 cap, price pressing the 0.8308 neckline.
USD strength carried the pair from the 0.8285 London low to a 0.8324 session high in early NY. A second rejection at 0.8323 near the 0.8320 cap has formed a double top, and late-NY price is slipping under the 0.8308 neckline with RSI(14) at 38. The 50% fib of the London-NY leg sits at 0.8305, with the 61.8% at the 0.8300 round number.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82854
Resistance: 0.83079, 0.83239
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8300 round number (61.8% fib) extends the double top toward the 0.8285 london low
Recovery back above the 0.8308 neckline negates the break; session high at 0.8324 stays the cap
Thin Asia session liquidity ahead; ADP (12:15 UTC) and Williams/Bowman Fedspeak Tue could shift USD tone
19:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalling, rolling over late NY · RSI 42 · price 0.83076
Double top at 0.8324/0.8323, lower high at 0.8315, testing the 0.8307 swing low.
Dollar strength on French fiscal stress carried the pair from the 0.8285 London low to a 0.8324 session high. A second test at 0.8323 was rejected just above the 0.8320 cap, forming a double top and breaking the rising tl. Late in the NY session price sits on the 0.8307 swing low, near the EMA50 and the 38.2% fib of the London rally. RSI(14) at 42 shows momentum cooling.
Support: 0.8307, 0.8304
Resistance: 0.8315, 0.8320, 0.8324
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8307 swing low confirms the double top; the 0.8304 ny low and 50% fib near 0.8305 are next
Recovery through the 0.8315 lower high neutralises the breakdown; 0.8320 cap and 0.8324 session high sit above
Fed's Williams (Tue 13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) plus ADP 12:15 UTC could reprice USD and shift this read
HL chain from London low; double top at 0.8324, late-NY pullback into the 38.2% fib.
London dipped to 0.8285 but held inside the 0.8277–0.8316 Asian range. NY then broke the Asian high on firm USD before and after the ISM release. The rally was rejected twice at 0.8324/0.8323, a double top just above the 0.8320 cap flagged in the CHF digest, and the late-NY pullback now sits under the Asian high, testing the 38.2% fib and the 0.8308 NY low with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 0.83079, 0.83047, 0.83001
Resistance: 0.83159, 0.83239
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8316 asian high reopens a test of the 0.8324 double top
Close above the 0.8324 double top clears the 0.8320 cap and invalidates the rejection read
Failure to hold the 0.8308 ny low exposes the 50% fib at 0.8305 and the 61.8% fib near 0.8300
Asia session follows with no scheduled events; ADP 12:15 UTC and Fed's Williams/Bowman Tue could shift the read
USD strength near YTD highs carried price off the 0.8285 london low and through the 0.8316 asian high, but two NY pushes into the 0.8323–0.8324 day high met rejection near the 0.8320 cap. Late NY is holding a higher low at 0.8308–0.8309, which sits on the 38.2% fib of the London rally. RSI(14) is neutral at 48 and ATR is about 4 pips.
Support: 0.83085, 0.8300, 0.82854
Resistance: 0.83159, 0.83239
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8308 higher low breaks the NY structure and exposes the 0.8300 round number, then the 0.8285 london low
Acceptance above the 0.8324 day high clears the 0.8320 cap; failure keeps a double rejection at the top in place
Price back below the 0.8316 asian high keeps it rotating inside the 0.8308–0.8324 band into the Asia session
No scheduled USD/CHF events before Asia; Fed's Williams and Bowman on Tue are the next USD risk
18:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalling under the day high · RSI 51 · price 0.83132
Twin highs at 0.8323–0.8324 capping; holding above the 0.8308 swing low.
The NY open broke the 0.8316 Asian high and ran to a 0.8324 day high. Price stalled just above the 0.8320 cap after the mixed ISM Services print, and a second test at 0.8323 failed in late NY. Price is now 0.8313, just under EMA20 and above the 0.8308 swing low, which sits on the 38.2% fib of the 0.8288–0.8324 leg.
Support: 0.8308, 0.8286
Resistance: 0.8316, 0.8324
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8324 day high clears the 0.8320 cap and the twin-top rejection
A break of the 0.8308 swing low completes a double-top read and exposes the 0.8286 London low
Holding back above the 0.8316 Asian high keeps the NY breakout structure intact
Tuesday's ADP release (12:15 UTC) and Fed speakers Williams and Bowman could materially shift this read
18:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalling, rolling over late NY · RSI 41 · price 0.83107
Higher lows from the 0.8285 london low into a 0.8324 day high; two-top rejection at 0.8320-0.8324, now testing the 0.8308 ny low.
Monday's climb ran from the 0.8285 london low to a 0.8324 day high early in NY. A second test at 0.8323 in late NY stalled just above the 0.8320 cap, forming a double top, and price has slipped back to 0.8311, on the 38.2% fib and just above the 0.8308 ny low (neckline). The mixed ISM Services print (54.9, prices paid 74) failed to extend the high; RSI(14) is near 41 and ATR runs about 4 pips.
Support: 0.8308, 0.8286, 0.8277
Resistance: 0.8320, 0.8324
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8308 ny low completes the double top and exposes 0.8300, then the 0.8286 london low
Loss of the london low would open a retest of the 0.8277 asian low
Reclaim of the 0.8320 cap and a close above the 0.8324 day high invalidates the double-top read
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) on Tuesday are the next scheduled USD risk; no Swiss events on the calendar
17:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling under 0.8320 cap · RSI 54 · price 0.83175
Higher lows since London; twin highs at 0.8323–0.8324.
Euro-driven USD demand carried the pair through the 0.83159 Asian high into the NY open, printing a 0.83239 session high, but a second test at 0.83233 also faded and the 0.8320 cap is holding on a closing basis. Higher lows at 0.83045 and the 0.83079 swing low keep the rising trendline intact; price is now sitting on it near 0.8317 late in the NY session.
Support: 0.83159, 0.83079, 0.83045
Resistance: 0.8320, 0.83239
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.83239 session high clears the 0.8320 cap and voids the twin-top rejection
Close below the rising trendline and the 0.83159 Asian high exposes the 0.83079 swing low, near the 38.2% fib
Break of the 0.83045 higher low ends the intraday HL chain
Liquidity thins after NY close; Tue ADP 12:15 UTC and Fed's Williams 13:05 / Bowman 14:45 UTC could shift this read
Higher lows above Asian range, double-high stall near 0.8324.
USD at fresh YTD highs carried the pair out of the Asian range at the London-NY transition, peaking at the 0.8324 session high. The pullback held 0.8308, near the 38.2% fib, and a second push in NY stalled at 0.8323 just over the 0.8320 cap. With RSI(14) back to 54, price now sits on the rising trendline from the London low.
Support: 0.83159, 0.83079, 0.82854
Resistance: 0.8320, 0.83239
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8308 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Acceptance above the 0.8324 session high clears the 0.8320 cap and the double-high stall
Loss of the 0.8316 asian high puts price back inside the Asian range, with the 0.8285 london low below
No scheduled events in the next 8h; Fed's Williams and Bowman on Tuesday, then FOMC Minutes Wednesday 18:00 UTC, are the next USD risk
The Asian range high at 0.8316 broke at NY open and printed a session high of 0.8324 into ISM. The pullback held a higher swing low at 0.8308, near the 38.2% fib of the London-NY leg, and price is back pressing the 0.8320 cap on USD strength at fresh yearly DXY highs. RSI(14) is neutral near 58 and rising support is intact.
Support: 0.83159, 0.83079, 0.82854
Resistance: 0.83239, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8324 session high clears the 0.8320 cap and exposes the 0.8330 round number
A second stall at 0.8324 leaves an equal-high rejection in place, with the asian high at 0.8316 the first test below
A break of the 0.8308 swing low and rising support ends the higher-low chain and reopens the London low at 0.8285
Thin late NY into Asia session; Fed's Williams and Bowman (Tue 13:05/14:45 UTC) are the next scheduled USD risk
Asian range broken higher; higher low at 0.8308, pressing 0.8320 cap.
The London low at 0.8285 held three times before NY lifted the pair through the Asian high at 0.8316 to a 0.8324 session high, as broad USD strength on EUR weakness carried over. The pullback found a NY swing low at 0.8308, about 40% of the London-NY rally, and after London close price is back against the 0.8320 round number with ATR compressing.
Support: 0.8316, 0.8308, 0.8285
Resistance: 0.8320, 0.8324
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8324 session high clears the 0.8320 round number cap flagged in the CHF digest
Failure to hold the 0.8308 NY swing low breaks the rising support and the higher-low chain
Drop back below the 0.8316 Asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Quiet calendar overnight; Fed's Williams and Bowman Tue are the next USD catalyst
Higher lows since Asia; NY broke above the Asian high, pullback held, now back under 0.8320.
NY took out the 0.8316 Asian high and set a session high at 0.8324 near the ISM release. The pullback to the 0.8308 swing low retraced about 45% of the 0.8288–0.8324 leg and held the rising trendline. Price is now pressing the 0.8320 cap after London close, with USD firm at yearly highs despite the ISM services miss.
Support: 0.83159, 0.83079, 0.82854
Resistance: 0.8320, 0.83239
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8324 session high clears the 0.8320 cap
A break of the 0.8308 swing low and the rising trendline ends the higher-low chain
Losing the asian high at 0.8316 puts price back inside the morning range, with the london low at 0.8285 as the range floor
Fed's Williams and Bowman on Tuesday could reprice USD hike odds overnight into the next session
HH/HL chain from the 10:00 UTC low; Asian high broken, retest held.
USD/CHF cleared the Asian high at 0.8316 in the first hour of NY, tagging a session high of 0.8324 as EUR weakness lifted the dollar. A brief poke through the 0.8320 cap was rejected. The pullback found a higher low at 0.8308, near the 38.2–50% retracement of the London-NY rally, and price is back at the asian high with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 0.83159, 0.83079, 0.83045
Resistance: 0.8320, 0.83239
What it said to watch
A sustained M15 close above the 0.8320 cap and the 0.8324 session high extends the HH chain
A close back below the 0.8316 asian high puts the retest read at risk; loss of the 0.8308 higher low breaks the rally trendline
A break of the 0.8304 swing low unwinds the London-NY rally toward the 61.8% area
Tue ADP (12:15 UTC) and Williams/Bowman Fedspeak could shift Fed hike pricing and this read
Higher lows from London low; false break above 0.8320 cap.
Higher lows have built from the 0.82854 London low, with the NY open pushing price to a 0.83239 day high above the 0.8320 cap on EUR-led USD strength. The break did not hold through ISM Services (54.9 headline, prices paid 74), and the pullback stalled at the 0.83079 swing low, inside the 38.2–50% fib retrace. Late in NY, after London close, price is back above the Asia high at 0.8316 and pressing the 0.8320 cap again.
Support: 0.83159, 0.83079, 0.83045
Resistance: 0.8320, 0.83239
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8320 cap and the 0.83239 day high turns the earlier false break into a breakout
Loss of the asia high and the rising lows line exposes the 0.83079 swing low, then fib 50% at 0.83045
A break below 0.83045 ends the higher-low chain in place since the London low
No scheduled events in the next 8h; European debt-contagion headlines and bond-market moves are the main swing factor into Asia
HH/HL chain since London low, pullback on trendline.
After the early London drop to a london low at 0.8285, price built a higher-low chain. It cleared the Asian high at 0.8316 and printed a 0.8324 session high, where it met rejection just above the 0.8320 area the market treats as former support. The dollar bid held through the in-line ISM print, and in late NY the pullback held a swing low at 0.8308 and the 0.8305 higher low, leaving price on the rising trendline just under the Asian high.
Support: 0.83079, 0.83045, 0.82854
Resistance: 0.83159, 0.83239
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8308 swing low breaks the rising trendline and the HH/HL chain
Loss of the 0.8305 higher low opens the 0.8301 fib 61.8% retracement
Acceptance above the 0.8324 session high clears the rejection at the 0.8320 area
No scheduled USD/CHF releases in the next 8h; Fed's Williams (Tue 13:05 UTC) is the next scheduled risk
Higher-low chain since London; Asian high broken in NY, rejection near 0.8320.
NY session broke the Asian high at 0.8316 and printed a 0.8324 session high, but supply capped the move just above the 0.8320 former sup the CHF digest flags. The pullback held the 0.8308 NY low near the 38.2% fib, keeping the higher-low trendline intact with USD bid at YTD highs after an in-line ISM.
Support: 0.8308, 0.83045
Resistance: 0.83159, 0.8320, 0.83239
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8304 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and trendline
Acceptance above the 0.8324 session high clears the 0.8320 former sup cap
Loss of the 0.8308 NY low puts price back inside the Asian range below 0.8316
Fed's Williams/Bowman Tue and FOMC Minutes Wed could reprice October hike odds and shift this read
15:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 56 · price 0.83137
Higher lows since London; Asian high broken then lost after rejection at 0.8324.
USD/CHF cleared the Asian high at 0.8316 in the first hour of NY, with the dollar at fresh YTD highs on EUR weakness, but met rejection at a 0.8324 session high just above the 0.8320 cap. The pullback low at 0.8308 sits between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the rally from 0.8288. That keeps the higher low at 0.8305 and the rising trendline intact into the London close.
Support: 0.83079, 0.83045
Resistance: 0.83159, 0.83239
What it said to watch
Close back above the asian high at 0.8316 reopens a test of the 0.8324 session high and the 0.8320 cap
Acceptance above the 0.8324 session high invalidates the rejection read
M15 close below the 0.8305 higher low breaks the HL chain and the rising trendline
Loss of the 0.8308 pullback low turns focus to the 61.8% of the rally fib near 0.8301
Tuesday's ADP (12:15 UTC) and Williams (13:05 UTC) could shift the USD bid
HH/HL chain from London low; pullback after NY rejection above 0.8320.
NY session cleared the 0.8316 Asian high to a 0.8324 session high but could not hold above 0.8320 former support after the stagflation-tinged ISM print, slipping back below the Asian high. The pullback met demand at the 0.8308 pullback low, near the 38.2% fib of the London-low rally. The higher-low chain from 0.8285 is intact, with RSI(14) neutral at 56.
Support: 0.83079, 0.83045, 0.82854
Resistance: 0.83159, 0.8320, 0.83239
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8320 former support and the 0.8324 session high extends the HH chain
Break of the 0.8304 swing low (50% fib) ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.8285 London low
Close back above the 0.8316 Asian high would neutralise the post-ISM rejection
Calendar thin for the rest of NY; Fed's Williams (Tue 13:05 UTC) is the next scheduled USD risk
15:03 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 54 · price 0.83115
Higher-low chain since the London low; rejected just above 0.8320, now testing the Asian high and ema20.
NY broke the 0.8316 asian high around ISM, where firm prices paid (74) kept USD supported. Supply capped the move at the 0.8324 session high, just above the 0.8320 cap noted in the digest, and price has slipped back to 0.8312 on ema20. Higher lows from the 0.8285 london low through the 0.8305 swing low are intact, and RSI(14) has cooled to about 54.
Support: 0.8310, 0.83045, 0.82854
Resistance: 0.83159, 0.83239
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8316 asian high reopens the 0.8324 session high and the 0.8320 cap
Break of the 0.8305 swing low (50% fib) ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.8285 london low
Loss of ema20 near 0.8310 would turn the pullback into a retest of the HL trendline
No scheduled events in the next 8h; Williams/Bowman Tue and FOMC Minutes Wed are the next scheduled risks
Higher lows since London, Asian high broken in NY, now basing above it.
London built higher lows off 0.8285 and the NY session broke the Asian high at 0.8316, printing a session high at 0.8324 into ISM. The 74 prices-paid reading has kept price pinned at the former 0.8320 support, with a tight 0.8315–0.8324 hold above the Asian high and RSI(14) near 67.
Support: 0.83155, 0.83047, 0.82854
Resistance: 0.8320, 0.83239
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8315 Asian high turns the breakout into a false break, with the 50% fib at the 0.8305 NY swing low next
Acceptance above the 0.8324 session high clears the former 0.8320 support that has capped rallies
A break of the 0.8285 London low ends the intraday higher-low chain
Fed's Williams and Bowman speak Tue, with FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, as the next USD repricing risks
Higher lows through London-NY; rejection above 0.8320, back on the Asian high.
A higher-low chain from the 0.82854 London low through the 0.83045 swing low carried price above the Asian high and the 0.8320 cap to a 0.83239 session high. Supply has capped the pair just above 0.8320 into the 14:00 UTC ISM window, and price has slipped back to the Asian high near the 23.6% fib. The latest bar is also dipping through the rising trendline. RSI(14) is cooling from the high 60s, and ATR runs about 6 pips.
Support: 0.83159, 0.83045, 0.82854
Resistance: 0.8320, 0.83239
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.83045 swing low (50% fib) breaks the higher-low chain from the London low
Failure to hold the Asian high at 0.83159 after slipping through the rising trendline points to a deeper fib retracement
An M15 close back above the 0.8320 cap and the 0.83239 session high negates the rejection read
The ISM Services Prices Paid and Employment components (now due), and Bowman/Williams Tue, could shift Fed-hike pricing and this read
14:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extending into NY · RSI 73 · price 0.83206
HH/HL chain from London low; Asian range high broken and retested.
USD/CHF has stepped up in higher lows from the 0.8286 London low and broke the 0.8316 Asian high in the first hour of NY. It printed a 0.8324 session high, pressing the 0.8320 cap flagged in the CHF digest, with RSI(14) near 73. The 14:00 UTC ISM bar held a contained range and its low retested the Asian high from above.
Support: 0.83159, 0.83045, 0.82854
Resistance: 0.83239
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8316 Asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.8305 swing low (50% of the London leg fib) breaks the higher-low trendline
Acceptance above the 0.8324 session high would clear the 0.8320 cap
ISM Services (14:00 UTC) actual not yet in the data; the Prices Paid and Employment components could materially shift this read
A break of the 0.8286 London low would undo the session's advance
Higher lows since London low; Asian high broken, now retested.
From the 0.8285 London low, a higher-low climb into NY hours broke the 0.8316 Asian high and briefly cleared the 0.8320 cap to a 0.8324 session high. That push drew a rejection, and the 13:45 UTC bar closed back under the cap. Price is now retesting the Asian high where the intraday trendline converges, with RSI(14) near 66 and ATR(14) around 6 pips.
Support: 0.83159, 0.83045, 0.82854
Resistance: 0.8320, 0.83239
What it said to watch
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) lands on the current bar and could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 0.8320 cap and the 0.8324 session high would turn the rejection into a breakout
Break below the asian high and intraday trendline exposes the 0.8304 swing low, which sits at the 50% of the London low–session high fib
Loss of the 0.8304 swing low would break the higher-low chain and reopen the 0.8285 london low
NY session pushed through the 0.8316 asian high and the 0.8320 cap flagged in recent CHF commentary, printing a session high at 0.8323 with RSI(14) near 73 as haven USD demand runs into ISM Services. The climb off the 0.8285 london low has built a higher-low chain along the rising trendline, with the 0.8305 pullback low the latest pivot.
Support: 0.83159, 0.83045, 0.82854
Resistance: 0.83229, 0.8365
What it said to watch
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) lands on the next bar and could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 0.8316 asian high would mark the breakout as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8305 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Acceptance above the 0.8323 session high opens the path toward the 0.8365 range top
13:31 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 68 · price 0.83142
Higher lows from London low, third test of Asian high.
From the 0.8285 London low, a higher-low chain at 0.8288 and 0.8305 has carried price back to the 0.8316 Asian high, set on the Yemen haven spike. That high is now on its third test into the first hour of NY, with RSI(14) near 68. The 0.8320 cap flagged in the CHF haven narrative sits just above.
Support: 0.83045, 0.82875, 0.82854
Resistance: 0.83159, 0.8320
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8316 Asian high exposes the 0.8320 cap
Break below the 0.8305 swing low breaks the higher-low line and reopens the London-low leg fib toward 0.8288
Loss of the 0.8285 London low negates the London-low rally
S&P Global PMI 13:45 and ISM Services 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
13:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pressing the Asian high · RSI 67 · price 0.83114
Higher lows since the London low; still inside the Asian range.
The Asian spike to the 0.8316 Asian high faded into a 0.8285 London low. Higher lows along the rising trendline have since carried price back to retest that high during the London-NY transition, with the USD bid on haven and French fiscal flows. The 0.8320 cap from last week's broken support sits just above, and RSI(14) is warm near 67, not extreme.
Support: 0.83045, 0.82854
Resistance: 0.83159, 0.8320
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.8316 Asian high exposes the 0.8320 cap; a second failure there leaves a double-top at the range top
A break below the 0.8304 pullback low and the rising trendline ends the higher-low chain and reopens the 0.8285 London low
S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) could materially shift this read within the next bar or two
13:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend from London low, stalling · RSI 64 · price 0.83085
HL chain from 0.8285, lower highs under Asian high.
The 0.8285 London low drew a 29-pip London-NY leg that stalled at 0.8315, just under the 0.8316 Asian high. Price is coiling 0.8305–0.8312 into the NY open with marginal lower highs and RSI(14) near 64. The 0.8320 cap flagged on CHF haven demand sits just overhead.
Support: 0.83045, 0.8294, 0.82854
Resistance: 0.83159, 0.8320
What it said to watch
S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.8316 Asian high puts the 0.8320 cap in play
Break of the 0.8304 higher low exposes the 0.8294 pullback low near the 50–61.8% retrace
Loss of the 0.8285 London low negates the intraday HL chain
12:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling below the Asian high · RSI 64 · price 0.83071
Higher lows from 0.82774 inside the 0.82774–0.83159 Asian range.
London rebuilt from the 0.82854 london low to 0.83146, stalling just under the 0.83159 asian high that capped the early-Asia haven-driven push. Price is holding the 0.83045 swing low into the London-NY transition, with a rising lows trendline intact from 0.82774. RSI(14) has cooled to ~64.
Support: 0.83045, 0.8300, 0.82854
Resistance: 0.83159, 0.8320
What it said to watch
ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55, TD 54.0) and S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC can materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.83159 asian high breaks the range top, with the 0.8320 round number as the next cap
Loss of the 0.83045 swing low and the 0.83000 fib 50% of the london leg exposes the 0.82854 london low
M15 close below the rising lows trendline (~0.8296) ends the higher-low sequence
12:31 UTC
Range, recovering from London low · RSI 58 · price 0.83071
Range 0.8285–0.8316 since Asia; lower high at 0.83146 under session high.
The Asia-session rally on Yemen-related haven USD demand set the session high at 0.83159. London tested it at 0.8309, failed and dropped to the London low at 0.82854. The late-London recovery stalled at 0.83146, a lower high just under the session high and below the 0.8320 cap, with price now holding above the 0.8300 round number, which also marks the 50% fib of that recovery.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82854, 0.82774
Resistance: 0.83159, 0.8320
What it said to watch
S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) during the first hour of NY could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.83159 session high exposes the 0.8320 cap
Failure to hold the 0.8300 round number / 50% fib puts the 0.82854 London low back in play
Break of the 0.82854 London low opens the 0.82774 Asian low and ends the range read
12:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, testing range top · RSI 68 · price 0.83089
Higher lows off the London low, retesting the Asian high.
USDCHF recovered from the London low at 0.8286, reclaimed the 0.8300 round number and is retesting the Asian high at 0.83159 into the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) near 68. The haven-driven Asian spike stalled at the same area earlier, and the 0.8320 psych cap flagged in the CHF digest sits just above.
Support: 0.8300, 0.8286
Resistance: 0.83159, 0.8320
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.83159 Asian high breaks the session range and puts the 0.8320 psych cap in play
Loss of the 0.8300 round number and the rising trendline returns price to the mid-range, with the 0.8286 London low below
S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) could materially shift this read
12:02 UTC
Intraday recovery, testing range top · RSI 67 · price 0.8310
London held above the Asian low and climbed back to the Asian high.
Yemen-driven haven USD demand lifted the pair to an Asian high at 0.8316. The London dip held at 0.8285, inside the Asian range, and NY-bound buyers have since retraced the full leg back to that high. RSI(14) is near 67 and supply is capping just under the 0.8320 cap flagged in the CHF digest.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82854
Resistance: 0.83159, 0.8320
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8316 asian high and the 0.8320 cap breaks the Asian range to the upside
Rejection here followed by a loss of the 0.8300 round number, which is also the 50% fib of the London leg, exposes the 0.8285 london low
S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher low at 0.8285 inside the 0.8277–0.8316 Asian range, price back at the range top.
After the Yemen-driven haven USD spike to the 0.8316 asian high, London sold down to 0.8285 before buyers stepped in, and the late-London leg has carried price back to retest the asian high with the 0.8320 cap just above. RSI(14) near 66 is firm but not stretched. ATR is about 6.7 pips.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82854, 0.82774
Resistance: 0.83159, 0.8320
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8316 asian high and 0.8320 cap breaks the Asian range to the upside
Rejection at the asian high leaves a double-top look. A loss of the 0.8300 round number (50% of the london leg fib) puts the 0.8285 london low back in focus
Break of the 0.8277 asian low prints a lower low and undoes the Monday recovery
S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) could materially shift this read
11:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, inside Asian range · RSI 66 · price 0.83046
Higher low at 0.8288 off London low, testing 0.8309 London high.
The Yemen-driven haven USD spike set the Asian high at 0.8316, and London faded it to a London low at 0.8285. A higher low at 0.8288 followed, and the late-London climb back over the 0.8300 round number has price capped at the 0.8309 London high, which also matches the 61.8% retracement of the Asian high to London low drop.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82875, 0.82854
Resistance: 0.8309, 0.83159, 0.8320
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8309 london high opens the 0.8316 asian high, with the 0.8320 cap from the macro digest above that
Loss of the 0.8300 round number turns the London high into a lower-high rejection, with the higher low at 0.8288 back in view
Break below the 0.8285 london low invalidates the intraday recovery and reopens the lower half of the Asian range
US S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) could materially shift this read
11:16 UTC
Intraday recovery inside Asian range · RSI 64 · price 0.83033
Higher lows off 0.8285, range top broken.
Haven USD demand on Yemen headlines lifted the Asian session to the 0.8316 Asian high, but the London open was rejected at the 0.8309 London high and dropped to the 0.8285 London low, still inside the Asian range. Since then, higher lows near 0.8285–0.8288 have built, and price is now pushing through the 0.8297 range top, back above the 61.8% retracement of the London drop. RSI(14) is near 64.
Support: 0.8297, 0.82854, 0.82774
Resistance: 0.83089, 0.83159
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 0.8297 range top turns the break into a false break
Loss of 0.8285 London low and the higher lows line exposes the 0.8277 Asian low
Close above 0.8309 London high puts the 0.8316 Asian high back in play
US S&P PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) could materially shift this read in NY session
10:46 UTC
Sideways, recovering inside Asian range · RSI 51 · price 0.82986
London fade from 0.8309 held 0.8285; higher low at 0.8288, testing 0.8300.
Haven USD demand on the Yemen headlines lifted the pair through the Asian session from the 0.8277 Asian low to a 0.8316 Asian high. London faded from the 0.8309 London high to the 0.8285 London low, near the 78.6% fib, and a higher low at 0.8288 now has price pressing the 0.8300 round number. RSI(14) is neutral near 51 and ATR is about 7 pips.
Support: 0.82875, 0.82854, 0.82774
Resistance: 0.83004, 0.83089, 0.83159
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8300 round number reopens the 0.8309 london high and 0.8316 asian high
Break of the 0.8288 higher low and the 0.8285 london low (78.6% fib) exposes the 0.8277 asian low
US S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) could materially shift this read
Lower high at 0.8309 under the 0.8316 Asia high; 0.8288–0.8300 range.
A haven-USD bid on the Yemen escalation drove an Asia rally to the 0.8316 asia high. London set a lower high at 0.8309 (london high) and slid to the 0.8285 london low, a 78.6% retrace of the Asia leg, before compressing between the 0.8288 range low and the 0.8300 range top. Price is pressing that range top mid-London, with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and ATR around 7.6 pips.
Support: 0.82875, 0.82854, 0.82774
Resistance: 0.83004, 0.83089, 0.83159
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.8300 range top brings the 0.8309 london high back in play. Clearing it would break the lower-highs line toward the 0.8316 asia high.
A failure below the 0.8288 range low and the 0.8285 london low exposes the 0.8277 asia low.
US S&P Global PMI (13:45 UTC) and ISM Services (14:00 UTC, f/c 55) could materially shift this read in the NY session.
10:16 UTC
Intraday down from Asia high, now basing · RSI 46 · price 0.82942
Lower highs since 0.8316; 0.8285–0.8297 box.
Haven USD bid on the Yemen escalation lifted the pair to the 0.8316 asian high in early Asia, but it faded through a series of lower highs. London opened with a rejection at the 0.8309 london high and a drop to the 0.8285 london low. The rebound since has stalled at the 38.2% fib near 0.8297, leaving price in a tight box below both EMAs.
Support: 0.82854, 0.82774
Resistance: 0.82971, 0.83089, 0.83159
What it said to watch
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC, with S&P PMI at 13:45 UTC, during NY hours could break the 0.8285–0.8297 box
M15 close below the 0.8285 london low exposes the 0.8277 asian low
Close above the 38.2% fib at 0.8297 breaks the lower-high trendline read and opens the 0.8309 london high
Above 0.8309, the 0.8316 asian high is the session ceiling
10:02 UTC
Intraday down from Asia high, now flattening · RSI 41 · price 0.82902
Lower highs since Asia, compressing 0.8285–0.8297.
The Asia haven-USD bounce to the 0.8316 asia high was rejected at the London open, where the pair printed a lower high at 0.8309 before slipping to the 0.8285 london low. Price is now compressing below EMA20 between that low and the 0.8297 lower high, near the 61.8% of the Asia rally, with RSI(14) around 41.
Support: 0.82854, 0.82774
Resistance: 0.82971, 0.83089, 0.83159
What it said to watch
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (S&P PMI 13:45) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.8297 lower high and the 0.8300 pivot breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 0.8309 london high back in focus
Failure to hold the 0.8285 london low exposes the 0.8277 asia low and erases the Asia rally fib
09:47 UTC
Neutral, consolidating after London faded the Asia spike · RSI 49 · price 0.82961
Lower highs off the 0.83159 Asian high; higher low at 0.8288 inside the Asian range.
Haven USD demand ran the pair to the 0.83159 Asian high, then London faded it to the 0.82854 London low. Price is back mid-Asian range near the 38.2% fib, holding a higher low at 0.8288 with the 0.8297 Friday high capping. RSI(14) is flat at 49 and the pair sits just above both EMAs.
Support: 0.8288, 0.82854, 0.82774
Resistance: 0.8297, 0.83089, 0.83159
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8297 Friday high opens the 0.83089 London high
A close through the lower-highs line from the 0.83159 Asian high negates the London fade structure
Break below the 0.8288 higher low exposes the 0.82854 London low, then the 0.82774 Asian low
S&P PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
09:32 UTC
Intraday down-drift, lower highs since the Asia peak · RSI 39 · price 0.82912
Lower highs from 0.8316; London consolidating 0.8285–0.8297 below the 0.8300 pivot.
The Asia session's haven-driven rally to the 0.8316 asian high on the Yemen escalation was rejected, and London opened by breaking the 0.8294 pullback low to a 0.8285 london low. Price now sits near the 61.8% of the asian rally fib, capped by a 0.8297 lower high under the 0.8300 pivot and flat EMAs, with RSI(14) at 39.
Support: 0.82854, 0.82774
Resistance: 0.82971, 0.8300, 0.83159
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8300 pivot and the lower-high trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.8285 london low exposes the 0.8277 asian low, the base of the asian rally fib
S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
09:17 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 38 · price 0.82895
Lower highs and lower lows below 0.8300; Asian rally ~78.6% retraced.
The Asia rally to the Asia high at 0.83159, driven by a USD safe-haven bid on the Yemen escalation, has been unwound through the London session. Price was rejected at 0.8309 and dropped to the London low at 0.82854. It then printed a lower high at 0.82971 and now sits between the 61.8% and 78.6% levels of the Asian rally fib. Price is below the 0.8300 psych pivot and both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 0.82854, 0.82774
Resistance: 0.82971, 0.8300, 0.83159
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.82971 lower high and back over the 0.8300 psych pivot breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 0.82854 London low exposes the 0.82774 Asia low and a full retrace of the Asian rally
S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read in NY hours
09:04 UTC
Intraday pullback from Asian high, lower highs · RSI 44 · price 0.82947
Lower highs since 0.8316; London low 0.8285 holding.
USD/CHF ran from the 0.8277 asian low to a 0.8316 asian high on Monday's haven-led dollar bid. London open stalled at 0.8309, a fresh lower high on the trendline, and sold to the 0.8285 london low near the 78.6% asia rally fib. Mid-London, price sits at 0.8295 just under EMA20 and the 0.8300 pivot, with RSI(14) near 44 and ATR around 7 pips.
Support: 0.82854, 0.82774
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.83089, 0.83159
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8300 pivot and the 0.8309 london high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 0.8316 asian high
Failure to hold the 0.8285 london low exposes the 0.8277 asian low and a full retrace of the asia rally fib
US S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Lower high at London open below the Asian high; London low held, mid-range rebound.
The Asia session ran from the asian low at 0.8277 to the asian high at 0.8316 on the haven USD bid. London open was rejected at a lower high of 0.8309 (the london high) and fell to the london low at 0.8285. Price has since rebounded into the 50–61.8% zone of the asian rally fib, sitting below EMA20 and roughly at EMA50, with RSI(14) near 46.
Support: 0.82854, 0.82774
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.83089, 0.83159
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8300 round number and the london high at 0.8309 breaks the lower-highs line toward the asian high at 0.8316
Failure to hold the london low at 0.8285 exposes the asian low at 0.8277 and prints a lower-low
US S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Middle East headlines driving haven USD flows can override the intraday range
08:31 UTC
Pullback from Asia high, mild downside drift · RSI 44 · price 0.82914
Lower highs from 0.8316 with a lower low at 0.8285; still inside the Asian range.
A safe-haven USD bid on the Yemen headlines lifted the pair to the 0.8316 asian high, but supply capped it there. In the first hour of London a rejection at the 0.8309 london high sent price to 0.8285, a lower low under the 0.8294 Asia pullback. Price now sits near the 61.8% fib of the Asian rally, below the 0.8300 pivot and both EMAs, with RSI(14) at 44.
Support: 0.82854, 0.82774
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.83089, 0.83159
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8285 london low exposes the 0.8277 asian low and the bottom of the Asian range
M15 close back above the 0.8300 pivot and the lower-highs trendline negates the pullback read; 0.8309 london high is the next cap
S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
08:16 UTC
Intraday pullback after Asia rally · RSI 33 · price 0.82867
Lower highs since 0.8316, 0.8294 pivot broken.
The Asia rally on USD haven demand topped at the 0.8316 asian high. The London open was rejected at the 0.8309 london high, and price then broke the 0.8294 pullback low. It is now retracing to the 78.6% fib of the Asia move, near the 0.8285 london low. RSI(14) is near 33 and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 0.82854, 0.82774
Resistance: 0.8294, 0.83089, 0.83159
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.8277 asian low fully erases the Asia rally
Reclaiming the 0.8294 pullback low puts price back in the 0.8294–0.8309 range
The lower-highs trendline from 0.8316 caps price below the 0.8309 london high
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
07:46 UTC
Pullback within Asia rally, lower highs forming · RSI 38 · price 0.82922
Lower highs from 0.8316 Asian high; testing 61.8% fib of the Asia leg.
The Asian rally from the 0.8277 Asian low to the 0.8316 Asian high, driven by the haven USD bid on Yemen headlines, has faded into lower highs. A rejection at the 0.8309 London high in the first hour of London pushed price back below the 0.8300 pivot to the 61.8% fib at 0.8292, with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 0.8292, 0.8287, 0.8277
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8309, 0.8316
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 61.8% fib at 0.8292 exposes the Friday close at 0.8287, then the Asian low at 0.8277
Recovery back above the 0.8300 pivot and the lower-highs trendline (around the 0.8309 London high) negates the pullback read
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (S&P PMI 13:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
Neutral after Asia spike, compressing · RSI 49 · price 0.83026
Tight range 0.8296–0.8309 under lower highs from 0.8316.
USD/CHF ran from 0.8277 to the 0.8316 Asian high on the haven USD bid (Yemen, French fiscal stress), then hit a rejection and faded to a 0.8294 swing low near the 61.8% level of the Asia rally fib. Early London is compressing between the 0.8296 range low and 0.8309 range high around the 0.8300 round number, with lower highs from 0.8316 (0.8314 lower high) intact and RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 0.8300, 0.8296, 0.8294
Resistance: 0.8309, 0.8314, 0.8316
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8294 swing low breaks the Asia rally fib hold and the range low
M15 close above the 0.8309 range high reopens the 0.8314 lower high and 0.8316 asian high
Loss of the 0.8300 round number turns the range low into the active test
US S&P PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
07:16 UTC
Asia rally stalled, sideways into London · RSI 43 · price 0.8299
Tight 0.8294–0.8305 range below the 0.8316 Asian high.
USD/CHF ran from the 0.8277 Asian low to an Asian high of 0.8316 on the haven USD bid tied to Yemen headlines. It then pulled back to a 0.8294 swing low, near the 50–61.8% fib of that leg, and has been coiling between there and a 0.8305 range top into London open, pinned around the 0.8300 psych level.
Support: 0.8294, 0.8277
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8305, 0.8316
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.8305 range top reopens a test of the 0.8316 Asian high
Break of the 0.8294 swing low exposes the 61.8% fib near 0.8292 and then the 0.8277 Asian low
Repeated failure to hold above 0.8300 psych keeps the range read intact
ISM Services (14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) and S&P PMI (13:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
Asia rally capped at 0.8316, lower highs since, holding above 0.8294.
USD/CHF ran from the 0.8277 Asian low to a 0.8316 session high on haven USD demand around the Yemen escalation. The pair then printed lower highs and retraced to a 0.8294 swing low, roughly 56% of the Asia rally. It is now coiling on the 0.8300 psych pivot into London open, capped by a 0.8305 minor high.
Support: 0.8300, 0.8294, 0.8277
Resistance: 0.8305, 0.8316
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8294 swing low breaks the Asia rally structure and exposes the 0.8277 Asian low
Close above the 0.8305 minor high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 0.8316 session high back in play
Holding or losing 0.8300 psych through London open sets the session tone
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Asia rally paused, consolidating at 0.8300 · RSI 47 · price 0.83012
Asian range 0.8277–0.8316; higher low at 0.8294, lower highs since 0.8316.
The Asia session rallied from 0.82774 to a 0.83159 session high on the USD safe-haven bid tied to Yemen and French fiscal headlines, clearing Friday's 0.8298 high. The pullback held a 0.8294 swing low inside the 50–61.8% zone of the Asia leg fib. With London open close, price is coiling around the 0.8300 pivot, and lower highs are capping it at 0.83048.
Support: 0.8300, 0.8294, 0.82774
Resistance: 0.83048, 0.83159
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8294 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.82774 Asian low
A close above the 0.83048 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.83159 session high
Failure to hold the 0.8300 pivot through London open shifts the read to a deeper fade of the Asia leg
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Breakout above Friday high now retesting 0.8300, lower high at 0.8305.
The Asia session broke Friday's 0.8299 high on the USD safe-haven bid tied to the Yemen escalation, peaking at the 0.8316 Asian high. Price then faded to a 0.8294 pullback low, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the Asian leg. Pre-London, price is retesting the Friday high and 0.8300 below EMA20, with a lower high at 0.8305 capping the bounce. RSI(14) sits near 44 and ATR(14) is about 5 pips.
Support: 0.82989, 0.8294, 0.82774
Resistance: 0.83048, 0.83159
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.8294 pullback low breaks the Asian leg retracement and exposes the 0.8277 Asian low
A close above the 0.8305 lower high reopens the 0.8316 Asian high
London open in under an hour could set the session range around 0.8300
US S&P Global PMI (13:45 UTC) and ISM Services (14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
05:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulled back and stabilising · RSI 54 · price 0.83011
Asian range break above Friday high, retest held, lower high at 0.8314.
The Asia session ran USD/CHF from the asian low at 0.8277 to the asian high at 0.8316 on the Yemen-driven safe-haven bid for USD, clearing the friday high at 0.8299. The pullback low at 0.8294 held near the 61.8% of the asian rally fib and on rising support, with price back at 0.8300 and RSI(14) neutral around 54 heading into London open.
Support: 0.8299, 0.8294, 0.8277
Resistance: 0.8314, 0.8316
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8294 pullback low breaks rising support and fails the friday high retest, exposing the asian low at 0.8277
Close above the 0.8314 lower high and the 0.8316 asian high resumes the intraday uptrend
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) during NY hours could materially shift this read
Yemen/Middle East headlines driving the USD haven bid can move price outside the Asian range
Lower high under 0.8316, pullback holding the Asian fib zone.
Asia spiked to the 0.8316 Asian high on Yemen-driven USD haven demand, then faded into a lower high. The pullback low at 0.8294 sits in the 50–61.8% fib of the Asian rally, and price is pinned at the 0.8300 psych pivot below EMA20 in late Asia, with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 0.8294, 0.82774
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.83159
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.8300 psych pivot would put the lower-high line near 0.8314 and the 0.8316 Asian high back in focus.
Failure to hold the 0.8294 pullback low breaks the 61.8% fib and exposes the 0.8277 Asian low.
London open is the first test of the Asian range. US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7, TD 54.0) could materially shift this read.
Lower high at 0.8314 after the 0.8316 Asian high; price back below 0.8300.
The Yemen-driven USD haven bid lifted the pair from the 0.8277 Asian low to a 0.8316 Asian high. A lower high at 0.8314 then capped it, and price has slipped back through the 0.8300 pivot to the swing low at 0.8294, about the 50% retracement of the Asian move. RSI(14) is neutral near 48, and London open is still about 1h45m away.
Support: 0.8294, 0.82921, 0.82774
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.83142, 0.83159
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8294 swing low exposes the 61.8% fib at 0.8292, then the Asian low at 0.8277
M15 close back above the 0.8300 pivot weakens the double top read; the 0.8314 lower high and 0.8316 Asian high cap above
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; S&P Global PMI is due at 13:45 UTC
Calmer Yemen headlines would remove the haven bid behind the Asia rally
05:04 UTC
Intraday up-leg, pulling back late Asia · RSI 56 · price 0.82996
Asian breakout above Friday high, now retesting it after a lower high.
The Yemen-driven safe-haven USD bid lifted USD/CHF through Friday's 0.8299 friday high in Asia, tagging a 0.8316 asian high before a lower high at 0.8314 turned it back. Price is now retesting the Friday high and 0.8300 pivot, sitting on EMA20 near the 38.2% fib of the Asian leg, with RSI(14) cooled to ~56 ahead of London open.
Support: 0.82992, 0.82842, 0.82774
Resistance: 0.8304, 0.83142, 0.83159
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.8296 (50% fib) fails the Friday-high retest and exposes the 0.8284 monday open, then the 0.8277 asian low
Reclaim of 0.8304 prior floor brings the 0.8314 lower high and 0.8316 asian high back into play
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Yemen/Houthi headlines driving the USD haven bid
04:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 62 · price 0.83042
Asia break above Friday high, lower high at 0.8314.
Late Asia session: a safe-haven USD bid on Yemen escalation lifted the pair from the 0.8277 Asia low through the 0.8299 Friday high to a 0.8316 session high. Rejection at a 0.8314 lower high has pulled price back to the 0.8304 pullback low, with ema20 near 0.8300 and RSI(14) cooling to ~62. The 38.2% level of the Asia rally fib sits near 0.8301, just under price.
Support: 0.83043, 0.8299, 0.82774
Resistance: 0.83142, 0.83159
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.8304 pullback low exposes the 0.8299 Friday high, the 0.8300 pivot and the 38.2% Asia rally fib
A close back below the 0.8299 Friday high turns the Asia breakout into a false break and puts the 0.8277 Asia low back in view
A move through the 0.8314 lower high and the 0.8316 session high resumes the Asia uptrend
London open in about 2h. It is the first test of whether the Asia session range holds
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC could reprice October Fed hike odds and shift this read
Asia breakout above Friday high, now coiling 0.8304–0.8316.
USD/CHF climbed from the 0.8277 Asia low through Friday's 0.8299 high and the 0.8300 pivot as safe-haven USD demand on Yemen escalation pushed the franc lower. The 02:45 UTC spike to the 0.8316 session high was followed by a tight 0.8304–0.8314 range. The pullback low at 0.8304 is holding above the 38.2% retracement of the Asia rally fib near 0.8301, with RSI(14) cooling to the mid-60s.
Support: 0.8304, 0.8300, 0.8277
Resistance: 0.8316
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8316 session high extends the Asia uptrend
Loss of the 0.8304 pullback low puts the 0.8300 Friday high retest in play; acceptance back below it would mark a false break
Failure to hold the Asia uptrend line toward the 0.8277 Asia low would undo the session rally
London open in ~2.5h is likely to set direction out of the current coil
US S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian rally broke Friday high; tight consolidation 0.8304–0.8316.
A safe-haven USD bid drove an Asian rally from the 0.8277 Asian low through Friday's 0.8300 high to a 0.8316 session high. Price has since held between the 0.8304 pullback low and a 0.8314 lower high heading into the London open, with RSI(14) cooling to about 67.
Support: 0.83043, 0.8300, 0.82774
Resistance: 0.83142, 0.83159
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8304 pullback low, then below the 0.8300 Friday high, would mark the breakout as failing and put the pair back inside Friday's range
Close above the 0.8316 session high clears the lower high and extends the Asian rally
A deeper fade toward the 0.8277 Asian low would retrace the full Asian rally
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) and the S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia HH/HL chain from 0.8277; break above Friday high and 0.8300.
The Asia session extended Friday's post-NFP recovery off 0.8227. Price broke Friday's 0.8298 high and the 0.8300 round number, spiked to a 0.8316 session high, then held a 0.8304 pullback low, with RSI(14) near 72. The digest points to a safe-haven USD bid as the driver, with the Asia rising trendline and fib of the 0.8277–0.8316 leg intact.
Support: 0.83043, 0.8300, 0.82774
Resistance: 0.83159
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8300 round number turns the breakout into a false break back inside Friday's range
M15 close above the 0.8316 session high extends the Asia HH chain
Loss of the 0.8304 pullback low and the Asia rising trendline puts the 0.8297 50% fib in play
A move back below the 0.8277 asian low negates the Asia session structure
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7), with S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC, could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 70 · price 0.83063
Asia HH/HL chain, broke above Friday's 0.8299 high.
Monday's Asia session built a higher-low chain off the 0.8277 session low and broke Friday's 0.8299 prior high and the 0.8300 round number, tagging a 0.8316 session high on the haven USD bid. Price has eased to 0.8306 with RSI(14) near 70, a shallow pullback that sits above the 38.2% of the Asia rally fib and on the Asia trendline.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82845, 0.82774
Resistance: 0.83159
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.8300 prior high would turn the break into a false break
Loss of the 0.8285 higher low breaks the Asia trendline and opens the 0.8277 session low
A close above the 0.8316 session high extends the breakout sequence
ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Asia HH/HL chain from 0.8277 broke Friday's high; first pullback holding above 0.8300.
Late in the Asia session, USD/CHF stepped up in higher lows from the 0.8277 Asian low and broke the 0.8299/0.8300 Friday high. It spiked to a 0.8316 session high as haven USD demand partly reversed the post-NFP slide. RSI(14) is near 70 and cooling after the spike bar, with the pullback low at 0.8306 the first reference beneath and the 50% fib of the Asian leg near 0.8297.
Support: 0.83055, 0.8300, 0.82774
Resistance: 0.83159
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8300 friday high puts the breakout at risk of a false break into Friday's range
Break of the 0.8306 pullback low exposes the 50% fib near 0.8297 and the friday high retest
Clearance of the 0.8316 session high extends the Asian HH chain into London open
Loss of the 0.8277 asian low undoes the whole Monday leg
US ISM Services PMI 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
03:02 UTC
Uptrend, stretched after Asia breakout · RSI 81 · price 0.83101
HH/HL chain off the Asian low; Friday high broken.
Monday's Asia session reversed part of Friday's post-NFP slide. From the 0.8277 asian low, price built higher lows along a rising trendline, cleared the 0.8300 psych level and Friday's 0.8304 prior high, and spiked to a 0.8316 session high on haven USD demand. RSI(14) near 81 is stretched after the impulse bar, and the first pullback is holding above the prior high.
Support: 0.83043, 0.8300, 0.82774
Resistance: 0.83159, 0.8320
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8304 prior high and a close back under 0.8300 psych would mark the breakout as a false break inside Friday's range
A close above the 0.8316 session high extends the HH chain toward the 0.8320 round number
Break of the rising trendline from the asian low ends the HL sequence; the 38.2% fib of the Asia leg sits near 0.8301
US S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain from 0.8277 Asian low, pressing 0.8300.
Asia session has run a clean higher-low chain off the 0.8277 Asian low and cleared Friday's 0.8298 post-NFP high, tagging a 0.8301 session high at the 0.8300 round number. This tracks the haven USD dip-buying in the digest. RSI(14) near 76 with ATR around 4.6 pips shows a stretched but orderly climb toward Friday's 0.8310 prior high.
Support: 0.82978, 0.82893, 0.82774
Resistance: 0.83011, 0.83102
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8298 post-nfp hi turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the Asian trendline exposes the fib 50% at 0.8289, then the 0.8277 Asian low
Acceptance above the 0.8301 session high puts the 0.8310 prior high in play
US ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
CHF digest flags 0.8300 as the line for franc safe-haven demand
Higher lows off the 0.8277 Asian low, testing Friday's post-NFP high.
Monday's Asia session has risen from the 0.8277 Asian low along a rising support line. Price has cleared the 0.8290 breakout area and is pressing the 0.8300 round number, in line with the digest's read of haven USD demand after Friday's NFP-driven drop to 0.8227. RSI(14) near 76 is warm but not extreme.
Support: 0.8290, 0.8277
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8313
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8290 breakout area undoes the push through Friday's post-NFP high
Holding above 0.8300 round number opens the 0.8313 friday high
Loss of the rising support line, then the 0.8277 asian low, would break the higher-low chain
US S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend off Asia low, pressing resistance · RSI 73 · price 0.82963
Higher-low chain through Asia session, testing post-NFP high.
Asia session climbed from the 0.82774 asia low in a clean higher-low chain, reclaiming the 0.82874 fri close as haven USD demand revives after Friday's NFP-miss spike to 0.8227 fully retraced. Price is now pressing the 0.82978 post-NFP high just under the 0.8300 round number, RSI(14) near 73 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 0.82874, 0.82774
Resistance: 0.82978, 0.8300, 0.83134
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.82978 post-NFP high and 0.8300 round number opens the path toward the 0.83134 fri high
Break of the asia hl line and a close back below the 0.82874 fri close unwinds the Asia advance
Failure to hold the 0.82774 asia low would mark a lower-low
US S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC later today could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the 0.8277 Asian low, capped below the 0.8298 post-NFP high.
Asia session dipped to a 0.8277 Asian low after a flat open, then built higher lows to test the 0.8292 Asian high. That puts price just under Friday's 0.8298 post-NFP high, with RSI(14) near 62. A steadier USD after the NFP miss is offsetting the franc's safe-haven bid, and the 0.8284–0.8298 range from late Friday is still intact.
Support: 0.82845, 0.82774
Resistance: 0.82921, 0.82978, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8298 post-NFP high and 0.8300 round number breaks the Friday range top
Loss of the 0.8285 higher low breaks the rising trendline and shifts focus back to the 0.8277 Asian low
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read during NY hours
01:46 UTC
Sideways, mild upward drift in Asia · RSI 55 · price 0.82884
Higher lows inside Asian range, testing range top.
Early Asia is holding a tight 0.8277–0.8290 range above Friday's post-NFP rebound, which ran from the 0.8227 spike low to the 0.8298 Friday high. Higher lows since the 00:00 UTC dip to the Asian low have price pressing the Asian high, with RSI(14) neutral near 55 and ATR around 3.7 pips.
Support: 0.82774, 0.82674
Resistance: 0.82901, 0.82978, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asian high at 0.8290 shifts focus to the friday high at 0.8298 and the 0.8300 psych level
Break below the asian low at 0.8277 ends the asian higher lows sequence and exposes the pullback low at 0.8267
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Asian range 0.8277–0.8290, higher lows under the range top.
Thin early Asia session after a small weekend gap to 0.8284. Demand met the Asian low at 0.8277, and higher lows at 0.8283 and 0.8285 are compressing price under the 0.8290 Asian high. Friday's NFP-miss spike to 0.8227 was fully recovered toward the 0.8298 Friday high, and price sits shallow in that retracement with RSI neutral and ATR near 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.82845, 0.82774, 0.82674
Resistance: 0.82901, 0.82978, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8290 Asian high exposes the 0.8298 Friday high and the 0.8300 round number
Loss of the 0.8285 higher low breaks the rising intraday trendline and returns focus to the 0.8277 Asian low
Break of 0.8277 opens the 0.8267 NFP pullback low from Friday NY hours
London open in ~5h is likely to expand the narrow Asian range
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
Tight Asian range 0.8277–0.8290 below Friday's 0.8298 post-NFP high.
Thin Asia session is boxed between the 0.8277 Asian low and the 0.8290 Asian high after a 3-pip weekend gap below Friday's close. Higher lows off 0.8277 form a rising trendline, though price is still under Friday's 0.8298 NFP recovery high. That high capped the bounce after the 29K payrolls miss.
Support: 0.82774, 0.8267
Resistance: 0.82901, 0.82978
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8290 Asian high puts the 0.8298 NFP recovery high back in play
Break of the rising trendline and the 0.8277 Asian low exposes Friday's 0.8267 swing low
London open in ~5h is the first real test of the Asian range
ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Asian range 0.82774–0.82901 inside Friday's post-NFP range.
Early Asia Monday opened with a small gap lower, dipped below Friday's late lows to the 0.82774 asian low, then reclaimed them and printed a higher low at 0.82828. Price is back toward the 0.82901 asian high, holding within the upper part of the post-NFP rally from 0.82271 to the 0.82978 nfp high. The USD tone stays soft after Friday's 29K payrolls miss, and ATR near 3.7 pips points to thin Asian conditions.
Support: 0.82828, 0.82774
Resistance: 0.82901, 0.82978, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.82901 asian high opens the 0.82978 nfp high, then the 0.8300 psych level
Loss of the 0.82828 higher low and the 0.82774 asian low returns the read to a lower-low sequence within the post-NFP rally
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read; a print above ~57 rebuilds Fed hike odds
Asian range 0.8277–0.8290, price pressing range top.
Monday's Asia session has built a tight Asian range between 0.8277 and 0.8290 after Friday's NFP miss spiked the pair to 0.8227. The fall was bought back to a post-nfp hi of 0.8298, and price has since held above the post-NFP fib 23.6% near 0.8281. Price is back at the asia high with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR around 3.6 pips, reflecting thin early-week liquidity.
Support: 0.82774, 0.82674
Resistance: 0.82901, 0.82978, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8290 asia high opens the 0.8298 post-nfp hi and the 0.8300 psych level, the line CHF digest flags as the pivot
Failure to hold the 0.8277 asia low exposes the 0.8267 ny swing low from Friday
ISM Services (14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) is the main event risk; a hot print rebuilding Fed hike odds could break the range, a soft one revives the post-NFP USD drift
Tight Asian range 0.8277–0.8290 beneath a lower high.
Friday's NFP miss spiked USD/CHF to 0.8227 before a rebound stalled at the post-nfp hi of 0.82978, and the pair drifted lower into the close as the franc's safe-haven bid held. Monday's Asian session is a 13-pip range between the asian low at 0.82774 and the asian high at 0.82901, with price pinned just under EMA20 and RSI(14) flat near 47.
Support: 0.82774, 0.82674
Resistance: 0.82901, 0.82978
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.82901 asian high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 0.82978 post-nfp hi back in play
Failure to hold the 0.82774 asian low exposes the 0.82674 post-nfp hl, near the 38.2% retracement of the post-NFP rebound fib
London open typically expands the sub-4-pip ATR; first range break off the Asian box sets the session tone
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC during NY hours could materially shift this read
00:16 UTC
Flat to heavy, drifting below Friday close · RSI 41 · price 0.82833
Thin Asian range 0.8277–0.8290 inside Friday's post-NFP rebound range.
Monday Asia opened with a 3-pip gap below Friday's 0.8287 close and has drifted to a 0.8277 session low. The pair is holding about 20% into the retracement of Friday's NFP rebound, which ran from the 0.8227 spike low and stalled at 0.8298, just under the 0.8300 psych level. RSI(14) is near 41 and ATR(14) is about 3 pips in thin Asian trade.
Support: 0.82774, 0.82674, 0.82271
Resistance: 0.82901, 0.82978, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8277 session low opens the 0.8267 ny pivot, near the 38.2% fib
Break of the 0.8290 session high puts the 0.8298 nfp rebound high and 0.8300 psych back in play
ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read; a hot print would test the post-NFP USD softness
A move toward the 0.8227 nfp low would need fresh franc safe-haven demand from the bond sell-off