Higher lows since NFP low, capped at 61.8% retrace.
Thursday's spike to the 0.8382 thu high reversed into a 155-pip slide that bottomed at the 0.8227 nfp low on Friday's soft payrolls. Since then H1 has carved higher lows, with the Asia session and NY hours driving Monday's rebound off the 0.8284 weekly open. The NY push met rejection at the 0.8324 monday high, which is also the 61.8% retrace of the drop and sits near the 0.8320 former-support cap, even as ISM prices paid at 74 kept USD supported. Price is now holding the ema20 / 50% fib zone around 0.8305 with RSI(14) near 55.
Support: 0.8305, 0.82842, 0.82271
Resistance: 0.83239, 0.83824
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8324 monday high clears the 61.8% retrace and opens the path to the 0.8382 thu high
Failure to hold the ema20 / 50% zone at 0.8305 exposes the 0.8284 weekly open
A break of the higher-lows trendline and the 0.8227 nfp low would resume Thursday's downtrend
Fed's Williams and Bowman on Tue and FOMC Minutes on Wed (18:00 UTC) could reprice October hike odds and shift this read
Lower highs from 0.8382; Monday higher lows capped at 0.8324.
The Thursday–Friday drop ran from the 0.8382 16-month high, set into Swiss CPI, to a 0.8227 friday low on the NFP miss. Monday's USD bid on Eurozone fiscal stress lifted the pair to 0.8324 at the London-NY transition, but it met rejection at the 61.8% retracement, just above the 0.8320 cap. Monday's higher lows held at the 0.8285 monday low (38.2%), and price now sits at the 50% level near 0.8305, flat against EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) back near 53.
Support: 0.8300, 0.8285, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8324, 0.8382
What it said to watch
H1 close below the Monday higher-lows line and the 0.8300 round number exposes the 0.8285 monday low
Failure to hold 0.8285 reopens the 0.8227 friday low and resumes the lower-low sequence
H1 close above the 0.8324 monday high clears the 0.8320 cap and the 61.8% level, bringing the 0.8382 16m high back into view
Fed's Williams and Bowman on Tue, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Monday higher lows above weekly open; lower high under the Thu high.
The week's dominant move lower started with Thursday's early-London rejection from the 0.8382 Thu high. It extended into Friday's NFP-hour drop to the 0.8227 Friday low as soft US jobs data cut Fed-hike odds. Monday's broad USD bid on Eurozone fiscal stress lifted the pair off the 0.8284 weekly open in Asia, and again in NY after ISM, printing higher lows. The NY push stalled at the 0.8324 Monday high, at the 61.8% fib of the Thu-Fri drop and just under the 0.8320 former-support area, and price has faded back onto EMA20 near 0.8304 with RSI(14) flat around 51.
Support: 0.83044, 0.82842, 0.82271
Resistance: 0.83239, 0.83824
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8324 Monday high clears the 61.8% fib and reopens the 0.8382 Thu high
Break below EMA20 and the Monday higher-lows trendline exposes the 0.8284 weekly open
Loss of the weekly open puts the 0.8227 Friday low back in focus
Fed's Williams/Bowman (Tue) and FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher lows from Friday's low, Monday lower high capped at 61.8% fib.
Thursday's reversal from the 0.8382 thursday high ran to the 0.8227 friday low on the NFP miss. Monday's recovery from just above the weekly open printed higher lows through Asia and London and stalled into the NY session at the 0.8324 monday high, a rejection at the 61.8% fib of that drop and just above the 0.8320 cap. Price now consolidates on the 50% fib near 0.8305, flat around EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 53, as USD strength from European fiscal stress meets CHF's haven bid.
Support: 0.8305, 0.8284, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8324, 0.8382
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8324 monday high (61.8% fib) reopens the path toward the 0.8382 thursday high
Loss of the 0.8305 50% fib and the higher lows trendline exposes the weekly open at 0.8284
A break below the 0.8227 friday low resumes the Thursday-Friday decline
Fed Williams/Bowman on Tuesday and FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
The dominant move of the window was Thursday's NY-session break from the 0.8382 16m high down to the 0.8227 friday low on the NFP miss. Since the week opened at 0.8284, the pair has rebounded with USD at fresh YTD highs on French fiscal stress. Monday's London dip held 0.8285 as a higher low, but NY twice stalled at the 0.8324 monday high, the 61.8% retracement of that drop. Price now sits on the 50% fib near 0.8305, with EMA(20) just beneath and RSI(14) back to the mid-50s.
Support: 0.8305, 0.8285, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8324, 0.8382
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8324 monday high clears the 61.8% retrace and the digest's 0.8320 cap, opening 0.8365 then the 0.8382 16m high
Loss of the 50% fib and the monday higher lows trendline puts the 0.8285 london low back in play; below it, the 0.8227 friday low
ADP and Fed's Williams and Bowman on Tue, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Friday's low, lower highs from Thursday's peak.
USD/CHF has rebounded from Friday's post-NFP low at 0.8227. Since Monday's open it has printed higher lows in the Asia and London sessions, but NY-session rallies stalled twice at 0.8324, the 61.8% fib of Thursday's 0.8382–0.8227 drop and just under the Friday high at 0.8327. Price sits above EMA(20), which is converging with the 50% fib at 0.8305, and RSI(14) is in the mid-50s; euro-driven USD strength and a mixed ISM Services print (54.9, prices paid 74) supported the bounce without clearing the cap.
Support: 0.83048, 0.82854, 0.82271
Resistance: 0.83239, 0.83267
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8327 friday high clears the 61.8% fib cap and opens the 0.8365 area
Failure to hold the 50% fib and EMA(20) near 0.8305 breaks the Monday higher lows and exposes the london low at 0.8285
A move back through the london low puts the friday low at 0.8227 back in focus
Fed's Williams/Bowman (Tue) and FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
USDCHF fell from Thursday's 0.8382 weekly high to the 0.8227 Friday low after the 29K NFP miss. It has since printed higher lows, from the Monday Asia trough near 0.8277 to the 0.8285 London low, as the USD held yearly highs on EUR weakness. The NY push stalled at 0.8324, the Monday high, which sits on the 61.8% retracement of the Thursday–Friday drop and the 0.8320 former-support area. Price is holding above EMA(20) near 0.8306, with RSI(14) in the mid-50s.
Support: 0.8306, 0.8285, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8324, 0.8333, 0.8382
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8324 Monday high clears the 0.8320 cap and exposes the 0.8333 Thu shelf, then the 0.8382 weekly high
A drop back below EMA(20) at 0.8306 would show the 0.8320 retest turning into rejection
Break of the 0.8285 London low cuts the higher-lows trendline and reopens the 0.8227 Friday low
Fed's Williams and Bowman on Tue, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
16:03 UTC
Rebounding inside a broader drop from last week's high · RSI 57 · price 0.83146
Higher lows since Monday's Asia session, testing the 61.8% retrace of the Thu–Fri drop.
USD/CHF reversed hard from Thursday's London-open spike to the 0.8382 16m high and slid to the 0.8227 friday low around the NFP miss, as fiscal-haven demand for CHF built. Monday's rebound from the 0.8284 weekly open printed higher lows in Asia and at the 0.8285 london low. Broad USD strength on EUR weakness then lifted the pair in the first hour of NY to tag the 61.8% fib at 0.8324. Price sits above EMA(20) near 0.8304 with RSI(14) in the mid-50s, while the 0.8320–0.8327 band (former support, friday high) is capping the rebound so far.
Support: 0.8304, 0.8285, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8324, 0.8327, 0.8382
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.8327 friday high clears the 61.8% fib and opens the path toward 0.8372–0.8382 16m high
Pullbacks holding the ema20 near 0.8304 keep Monday's higher-low sequence intact
Break of the Monday higher-low trendline and the 0.8285 london low returns focus to the 0.8227 friday low
Fed's Williams and Bowman on Tuesday, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
15:03 UTC
Corrective rebound inside a broader decline from Thursday's high · RSI 57 · price 0.83116
Higher lows since Friday's NFP low; lower highs from 0.8382 still intact.
Thursday's slide from 0.8382 bottomed at the 0.8227 NFP low on Friday. Since the weekly open at 0.8284, Monday has printed higher lows: an Asia-session lift and a London-open dip held near 0.8285, and the NY session then pushed to 0.8324. That Monday high sits on the 61.8% fib of the Thursday–Friday drop and the former 0.8320 support, and the ISM hour wicked back from it. Price is holding above EMA(20) and the 50% fib near 0.8305, with RSI(14) in the high 50s.
Support: 0.83048, 0.82842, 0.82271
Resistance: 0.83239, 0.83295, 0.83723
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8324 monday high and the 0.8330 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 0.8372 lower high
Failure to hold the 50% fib at 0.8305 turns the 61.8% rejection into a lower high
A break below the weekly open at 0.8284 ends the higher lows read and exposes the 0.8227 nfp low
Fed's Williams and Bowman (Tue) and FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift Fed-hike pricing and this read
14:03 UTC
Recovering within a downtrend, testing resistance · RSI 62 · price 0.83191
Monday higher lows retracing Thursday-Friday reversal into fib 61.8%.
Monday has retraced most of Thursday's 155-pip reversal from the 0.8382 week high to Friday's post-NFP 0.8227 low. The Asia high at 0.8316 came on Yemen-related haven USD demand, London faded to the 0.8285 london low, and the NY push printed a higher low before tagging the fib 61.8% at 0.8323, just above the 0.8320 level CHF's haven bid has been capping. Price sits above the ema20 near 0.8303, and RSI(14) is around 62.
Support: 0.83159, 0.8303, 0.82854
Resistance: 0.83231, 0.83295, 0.83824
What it said to watch
ISM Services (14:00 UTC, f/c 55) prints inside the current bar and could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.8330 thu ny high breaks the Thursday lower-high sequence and opens 0.8354, then the 0.8382 week high
Rejection at the fib 61.8% and a loss of the 0.8316 asia high return focus to the ema20 near 0.8303
A break of the Monday higher lows trendline and the 0.8285 london low exposes Friday's 0.8227 low
Lower highs intact; basing 0.8277–0.8316 since Friday.
The week high at 0.8382 on Thursday morning reversed into a heavy NY-session drop as softer PCE trimmed Fed October hike odds, and Friday's 29K payrolls miss extended it to a 0.8227 spike low (nfp low) that was quickly bought back. Monday's Asia session bounce on the haven USD bid stalled at 0.8316 (monday high), between the 50% and 61.8% of the 0.8382–0.8227 swing, and London has faded it back below the 0.8300 pivot. Price is now pinned to EMA(20) near 0.8294 with RSI(14) at 53, holding just above the weekly open at 0.8284 and the monday low at 0.8277 while the lower-highs line stays intact.
Support: 0.82842, 0.82774, 0.82271
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.83159, 0.83824
What it said to watch
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC, with S&P Global PMI at 13:45, could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the 0.8300 pivot and the monday high at 0.8316 would break the lower-highs line
Failure to hold the weekly open and the monday low at 0.8277 reopens the nfp low at 0.8227
A recovery toward the week high at 0.8382 needs a rebuild in October hike odds
Lower highs from 0.8382; post-NFP higher low at 0.8277 Monday.
The week's dominant move came in Thursday's NY session, when softer PCE knocked USDCHF off the 0.8382 high, and Friday's NFP miss extended the slide to the 0.8227 nfp low. Monday's Asia bounce on safe-haven USD demand ran to the 0.8316 monday high, between the 50% and 61.8% retrace of that leg, before price slipped back under the 50% fib near 0.8305 and the EMA50. It now holds just above EMA20 at 0.8295 with RSI(14) neutral at 52, and the lower-high line from Thursday's 0.8372 still caps the rebound.
Support: 0.8295, 0.8284, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8305, 0.8316, 0.8327
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 50% fib at 0.8305 and the lower-high line reopens the monday high at 0.8316 and the friday high at 0.8327
Loss of EMA20 at 0.8295 and the 0.8284 weekly open exposes the 0.8227 nfp low
US ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC today (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 0.8382; post-NFP higher lows below.
USD/CHF has printed lower highs since the rejection at the 0.8382 16m high at Thursday's London open. Thursday's NY-session slide and Friday's NFP miss (29K vs 90K) extended the drop to the 0.8227 nfp low. Monday's Asia-session bounce on haven USD demand after the Yemen offensive stalled at the 0.8316 asia high, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the Thursday–Friday drop and just above ema50 near 0.8304, and has since faded back to 0.8299. Price is now sitting on ema20 at 0.8295 with RSI(14) near 48, mid-range rather than stretched.
Support: 0.8295, 0.8284, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8304, 0.8316, 0.8382
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8316 asia high and the 61.8% retracement at 0.8323 breaks the lower-highs sequence
Repeated rejection at ema50 near 0.8304 keeps price capped under the 0.8300 pivot
Failure to hold ema20 and the 0.8284 weekly open exposes the post-NFP lows trendline and the 0.8227 nfp low
US S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7, TD 54.0) could materially shift this read during NY hours
Yemen/Middle East headlines driving the USD haven bid could reshape the Asia-session bounce
Lower highs since 0.8382; Monday bounce capped below 61.8% fib.
USD/CHF reversed from Thursday's 0.8382 London-session spike, and the slide to the 0.8227 nfp low came in NY hours on Thursday (softer PCE) and Friday (29K payrolls miss). Monday's Asia-session bounce on Yemen-driven safe-haven USD demand met rejection at 0.8316, the monday high, between the 50% and 61.8% retracements of the week's decline. Price has slipped back to the 0.8300 pivot, just above ema20 near 0.8294 and below the 50% fib and EMA(50) around 0.8305, with the lower highs since Thursday still intact.
Support: 0.8294, 0.8277, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8305, 0.8316, 0.8327
What it said to watch
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read; a firm print revives Fed hike odds from ~20%
H1 close above the 0.8316 monday high and the lower highs trendline near 0.8320 breaks the sequence and exposes the 0.8327 friday high
Failure to hold ema20 at 0.8294 and the 0.8277 asia low reopens the 0.8227 nfp low
Yemen/Houthi headlines remain the source of the USD bid; calmer news removes support for the bounce
Higher lows off Friday's NFP low, Monday reclaimed 0.8300 and sits mid-retracement.
USDCHF fell roughly 155 pips from Thursday's 16m high at 0.8382 to the 0.8227 NFP low on Friday's 29K payrolls miss and the franc's fiscal safe-haven bid. Since then the pair has printed higher lows. A brisk Asia-session leg Monday cleared Friday's 0.8298 range top as DXY firmed on geopolitics, taking price back above EMA(20) and EMA(50). It now trades between the 50% fib at 0.8305 and the 61.8% fib at 0.8323, just under the Monday high at 0.8316, with RSI(14) firm in the mid-60s.
Support: 0.83048, 0.82774, 0.82271
Resistance: 0.83159, 0.83231, 0.83824
What it said to watch
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC today (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 61.8% fib at 0.8323 extends the retracement toward the 16m high zone at 0.8382
Failure to hold the 50% fib and 0.8300 puts the Monday low at 0.8277 back in play and breaks the higher-lows line
A move back under the NFP low at 0.8227 resumes the drop from the 16m high
03:03 UTC
Downtrend from Thursday high, Monday rebound in progress · RSI 59 · price 0.83104
Lower highs since 0.8382; post-NFP higher lows, price between 50% and 61.8% retrace.
USD/CHF was rejected at the 16m high of 0.8382 in Thursday's London session. The fiscal safe-haven bid for CHF and Friday's 29K NFP miss then extended the slide to the NFP low at 0.8227. Monday's Asia session has pushed price back above EMA(20) and through Friday's 0.8298 range top as haven USD demand returned, leaving the pair just above the 50% fib of the Thursday–Friday drop, which aligns with EMA(50) near 0.8305. RSI(14) has recovered to ~59, but the Asia high at 0.8316 and the Friday high at 0.8327, the 61.8% zone, still sit inside the lower-high sequence from Thursday.
Support: 0.83048, 0.82842, 0.82271
Resistance: 0.83159, 0.83267, 0.83824
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 50% fib / EMA(50) near 0.8305 returns focus to the weekly open at 0.8284
Clearance of the Friday high at 0.8327 breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 16m high at 0.8382
Loss of the post-NFP higher lows line near 0.8290, alongside EMA(20), undercuts the rebound; below the weekly open, the NFP low at 0.8227 is the next reference
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read via Oct Fed-hike pricing
Lower highs from 0.8382; tight 0.8277–0.8298 range post-NFP.
Rejection at Thursday's 0.8382 16-month high turned into a sequence of lower highs, with both main legs lower coming in NY hours. Thursday's drop was followed by the NFP miss (29K vs 90K) that drove Friday's flush to the 0.8227 nfp low, consistent with the digest's franc safe-haven bid and fading Fed-hike pricing. The rebound stalled at the 0.8298 fri high near the 38.2% fib of the 0.8382–0.8227 leg. Monday's Asia session is holding above the weekly open at 0.8284 and the 0.8277 asia low, with price pinned to a flattening EMA(20) and RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 0.82842, 0.82774, 0.82271
Resistance: 0.82978, 0.83048, 0.83267
What it said to watch
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC today (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read via Fed-hike repricing
H1 close above the 0.8298 fri high and the 0.8305 fib 50% would mark the first break of the lower-highs sequence
Lower high at 0.8327 caps the rebound structure; reclaiming it undermines the downtrend read
Failure to hold the weekly open and 0.8277 asia low reopens the 0.8227 nfp low
Lower highs from 0.8382 peak; tight Asian range at weekly open.
USD/CHF turned lower after the rejection at Thursday's 0.8382 16-month high. The slide accelerated through Thursday's NY session as softer PCE and safe-haven franc demand took hold. Friday's 29K NFP miss then spiked the pair to the 0.8227 nfp low before it recovered to a 0.8298 post-NFP high. Since Monday's open, price has compressed in a 0.8277–0.8290 Asian range around the 0.8284 weekly open, pinned at the 38.2% retracement and EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 47 and ATR contracted to about 12 pips.
Support: 0.82842, 0.82774, 0.82271
Resistance: 0.82901, 0.82978, 0.83267
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8290 asian high and the 0.8298 post-NFP high would print a higher high off the NFP low and bring the 50% retracement near 0.8305 and the 0.8327 lower high into view
Failure to hold the weekly open and the 0.8277 asian low exposes Friday's 0.8227 nfp low; a break there resumes the lower-low sequence
ISM Services today 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7): a print above ~57 could rebuild Fed-hike odds and test the post-NFP high, while a print below ~54 reinforces the soft-USD read
Fed's Williams and Bowman on Tuesday could shift Oct hike pricing, the main swing factor for this pair
Thursday's London-open spike to the 0.8382 week high met rejection, and NY hours drove a 90-pip slide. Friday extended lower as the franc's safe-haven bid on the global bond sell-off met a broad NFP miss, flushing to the 0.8227 nfp low before a rebound stalled at 0.8298, the rebound high just under 0.8300 and between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the week's drop. Price opened Monday's Asia session near 0.8284 and sits in a tight band above the 0.8279 monday low, below ema20 (~0.8288) with RSI(14) around 42 and a trendline of lower highs pressing from the Friday Asia lower high at 0.8327.
Support: 0.8279, 0.8266, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8288, 0.8298, 0.8327
What it said to watch
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC Monday (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read; a strong print would test the Fed-repricing leg behind the drop
H1 close above the 0.8298 rebound high and 0.8300 breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 0.8327 lower high
Failure to hold the 0.8279 monday low exposes Friday's 0.8266 london low, then the 0.8227 nfp low
Sustained trade back above ema20 near 0.8288 would mark the first reclaim of the average since Thursday's NY slide