Higher lows off 0.8227 beneath lower highs from 0.8382; contracting.
The three-week advance from 0.8080 peaked at the 16m high of 0.8382 before soft US payrolls and the global bond selloff drove a 155-pip reversal to the 0.8227 swing low. That low still sits above the mid-month base near 0.8183, leaving the broader higher-low sequence intact. The rebound has stalled into the 61.8% fib at 0.8326, where the former 0.8320 support is now capping, and price is coiling between that cap and rising higher lows at 0.8277 and the recent lows near 0.8298. ATR(14) has eased to about 21 pips from the reversal spike, and price is holding just above a flattening EMA20/EMA50 pair.
Support: 0.8298, 0.8277, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8326, 0.8365, 0.8382
What it said to watch
An H4 close above the 61.8% fib at 0.8326 breaks the lower-high trendline and exposes the 0.8365 range top and the 16m high at 0.8382
A break of the recent lows at 0.8298 and the rising trendline puts the 0.8277 higher low and the 0.8227 swing low back in focus
Loss of the 0.8227 swing low would mark a lower low and break the uptrend read
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could break the current contraction in either direction
Higher lows since 0.8183; lower high capped at 0.8326.
The swing from the 0.8183 low to the 0.8382 16m high was cut by a 155-pip drop to the 0.8227 swing low as the bond selloff and the soft 29K NFP hit USD, but that low still sits above the prior one and keeps the higher-lows sequence intact. The rebound has stalled three times at the 0.8326 fib cap, the 61.8% retracement of the drop, leaving a lower high and a tight band just above the ema50 at 0.8304. ATR(14) has eased from roughly 35-40 pips during the sell-off to about 24, which points to compression rather than trend extension.
Support: 0.8304, 0.8277, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8326, 0.8382
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.8326 fib cap breaks the lower-highs line and opens 0.8365 and the 0.8382 16m high
Loss of the ema50 at 0.8304 and the 0.8277 week low exposes the 0.8227 swing low and the higher-lows trendline
Break below the 0.8227 swing low would end the higher-lows sequence
FOMC minutes Wed Oct 7 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower high at 0.8326 after rejection from 0.8382; higher lows intact.
The higher-high sequence since early September ended in a rejection at the 0.8382 16m high. Price then fell about 155 pips to the 0.8227 swing low as the global bond selloff and Friday's soft payrolls cut Fed hike odds. The rebound has stalled at a lower high near 0.8326, a retest of the former 0.8320 support that also sits on the 61.8% retracement of that drop. Price now sits just below the flattening EMA20 at 0.8311 and on the EMA50 near 0.8300, while ATR(14) compresses toward 15-20 pips per bar, consistent with consolidation between the lower-highs line and the higher-lows trendline from 0.8183.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82774, 0.82271
Resistance: 0.83263, 0.83669, 0.83824
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.8326 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.8367 range top and the 0.8382 16m high
Sustained trade below the EMA50 at 0.8300 exposes the 0.8277 monday low
Failure to hold the 0.8227 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline and confirms a lower-low
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) today, then FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
09:04 UTC
Uptrend corrected, rebound stalling at cap · RSI 51 · price 0.83192
Higher lows off 0.8227, compressing below 0.8326.
The rally from the 0.8067 mid-September low peaked at the 0.8382 16-month high, then gave back 155 pips to the 0.8227 swing low. That drop came as CHF's fiscal-haven bid returned and the 29K NFP miss cut Fed-hike odds. The rebound since has printed a string of higher lows and is now pressing the 0.8323-0.8326 rebound high, which is the 61.8% retracement of that drop and prior support turned cap. ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 25 pips, and price holds above EMA20, which is back over the EMA50 near 0.8302.
Support: 0.8302, 0.8277, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8326, 0.8366, 0.8382
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.8326 rebound high clears the 61.8% retracement and opens the 0.8366 range top
Rejection at 0.8326 plus a break of the 0.8302 ema50 and the rebound higher-lows trendline points back to the 0.8277 higher low
Loss of the 0.8227 swing low would confirm a lower low and break the September uptrend structure
Fed's Williams and Bowman today, and FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could reprice October-hike odds and shift this read
Higher lows from 0.8067 intact; lower high at 0.8324 after the drop from 0.8382.
Higher-low structure has held since the early-September low at 0.8067. The soft NFP knocked the pair from the 16m high at 0.8382 to a swing low at 0.8227, a retest of the rising trendline. The rebound stalled at 0.8324, the 61.8% fib of that drop, and price is now coiling just above the ema50 near 0.8300, with ATR(14) easing to about 26 pips and EMA20 flattening just over EMA50.
Support: 0.8300, 0.8227, 0.8183
Resistance: 0.8324, 0.8382
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.8324 61.8% fib reopens the 16m high at 0.8382
Loss of the ema50 at 0.8300 shifts focus back to the 0.8227 swing low
Break below the 0.8227 swing low and the rising trendline ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.8183 base low
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, plus Williams and Bowman today, could reprice October hike odds and shift this read
Lower high at 0.8324 after drop from 0.8382 swing high.
Three weeks of higher highs and higher lows from 0.8067 ended at the 0.8382 swing high. Price then undercut the 0.8321 pivot and printed a 0.8227 swing low as the soft US payrolls data and a fiscal-haven CHF bid hit together. The rebound has stalled at 0.8324, the 61.8% fib of that drop and former support, which leaves a lower high in place, while price holds just above the ema50 near 0.8300 with EMA20 and EMA50 converging but uncrossed and ATR steady near 26 pips.
Support: 0.8300, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8324, 0.8357, 0.8382
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.8324 (61.8% fib) breaks the lower-high line and reopens the 0.8357 prior high, then the 0.8382 swing high
Failure to hold the 0.8300 ema50 exposes the 0.8227 swing low and the rising trendline near 0.8243
EMA20 crossing below EMA50 would confirm the swing has rolled over into a range
Fed's Williams/Bowman Tue and FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could reprice October hike odds and materially shift this read