Multi-quarter downtrend from 0.9200 (Q1 2025) bottomed at 0.7604 and has since given way to a basing range between the 0.8000 psych level and the 0.8100 barrier. Price sits at 0.8038, back above a flattening EMA(50), as the recovery grinds toward 0.8100 where prior attempts have been rejected. USD stays soft with US CPI the swing catalyst, while the SNB at zero caps franc strength.
Support: 0.8000, 0.7910, 0.76043
Resistance: 0.8100, 0.81394, 0.8344
What it said to watch
Weekly close above 0.8139 prior high would extend the recovery toward the 0.8340 q2 region
Failure to hold 0.8000 psych reopens 0.7910 swing low and the 0.7604 base low
US CPI (Jul 14) is the dominant dollar-side catalyst and could reshape this read
USDCHF spent 2025 in a sustained downtrend from 0.9200 to a 14-year low at 0.7604 by Q1 2026, driven by broad Dollar weakness. Price has since based and recovered into the 0.79-0.81 band, retracing roughly a quarter of the decline, and now trades just above a flattening W1 EMA(50). The 0.8100 area has capped repeated attempts higher, with the round 0.8000 level acting as the near pivot below.
Support: 0.8000, 0.7910, 0.7604
Resistance: 0.8100, 0.8140
What it said to watch
Weekly close above 0.8140 would extend the recovery beyond recent highs
Failure to hold 0.8000 reopens 0.7910 and the 0.7604 low
US CPI Jul 14 is the dominant near-term catalyst for the Dollar leg