Basing after 2025 downtrend, higher lows since Q1.
The dominant regime was the 2025 downtrend from 0.9196 that bottomed at 0.7604 in Q1 2026; price has been carving higher lows and grinding back to 0.8093, now holding above a rising EMA(50). The recovery aligns with a structurally soft franc — SNB intervention willingness plus Swiss PPI at -2.1% YoY cap safe-haven CHF bids. Price sits mid-way between the base and the 0.8171 YTD highs, with 0.8042 acting as the near-term dividing line.
Support: 0.8042, 0.7885, 0.7604
Resistance: 0.8140, 0.8171, 0.8250
What it said to watch
Weekly close above 0.8171 ytd high opens the path toward 0.8250
Loss of 0.8042 bull-bear line and 0.7885 swing low would threaten the base
Any active SNB intervention could materially shift this read
Multi-month recovery off 0.76 low, testing range top.
USDCHF fell from 0.92 in Q1 2025 to a 0.7604 low in late January 2026, then carved a rounded base; a steady multi-month recovery has since lifted price back above the W1 EMA(50) toward the upper range boundary. The 0.8100 pivot and the 0.8150-0.8171 YTD highs cap the advance, consistent with the structurally soft CHF backdrop where SNB intervention risk neutralises safe-haven franc bids. Price sits just under 0.8100 with mid-range RSI, so no momentum extreme is flagged at this scale.
Support: 0.8042, 0.8000, 0.7604
Resistance: 0.8100, 0.8171
What it said to watch
W1 close above 0.8100 pivot exposes the 0.8150-0.8171 ytd highs
Failure to hold 0.8042 support reopens the path toward 0.8000 psych
Any active SNB intervention commentary could cap or accelerate this recovery