21:04 UTC
Sideways after rally, lower high in place · RSI 40 · price 0.83018
Range 0.8227–0.8382, lower high at 0.8347, testing 0.8296 lows.
The rally stalled at the 0.8382 17m high, and the sharp drop to the 0.8227 drop low was only partly retraced. The rebound faded at a 0.8347 lower high, above the fib 61.8 at 0.8323. Price is now back at the 0.8296 swing low cluster, near the 50% retracement, as CHF firms with US yields easing off their highs, though a dovish SNB caps the franc. ATR(14) has compressed to about 16 pips from the expansion during the drop, and price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 0.8296, 0.8277, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8323, 0.8347, 0.8382
What it said to watch
- H4 close below the 0.8296 swing low exposes the 0.8277 prior low, then the 0.8227 drop low
- Reclaim of the fib 61.8 at 0.8323 and a close above the 0.8347 lower high reopens the 0.8382 17m high
- US CPI Wed Oct 14 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.6% y/y) could materially shift this read; Fed's Hammack, Waller and Bowman speak beforehand
- Renewed rise in US yields toward multi-decade highs would undercut the lower-high read