Reopen gap and false break below Friday low, now fading the bounce into 0.8300.
The Sunday reopen gapped about 4 pips below Friday's 0.8302 close. It broke the 0.8296 friday low to a sunday low at 0.8287, then reclaimed it up to a 0.8307 sunday high, and early Asia session is now fading that sunday bounce back to the 0.8300 round number, with RSI(14) neutral near 49. Lower highs from the 0.8319 friday high cap the tape, with CHF modestly firmer as US yields eased late last week.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82957, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.83072, 0.83189
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8296 friday low reopens the 0.8287 sunday low; the 50–61.8% retrace of the sunday bounce sits at 0.8297–0.8295
Reclaim of the 0.8307 sunday high breaks the lower highs line and exposes the 0.8319 friday high
Thin reopen liquidity, no scheduled data in the next 8h; Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC and Wed US CPI are the next USD inputs
23:32 UTC
Range, flat momentum after weekend gap · RSI 52 · price 0.83013
Gap down, false break of Friday low, gap filled; pulling back to 0.8300.
The early Asia open gapped lower and dipped below the 0.82957 friday low to a 0.82872 open low. That false break reversed into a gap fill and a 0.83072 sunday high. Price has given back about 30% of the sunday rally and sits on the 0.8300 round number at the EMA20, still inside Friday's 0.8296–0.8319 range, as easing US yields keep the pair pressed against 0.8300.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82957, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.83072, 0.83189
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.8300 round number puts the 0.82957 friday low back in play, near the 50% of the sunday rally
A close above the 0.83072 sunday high reopens Friday's 0.83189 prior high
Losing the 0.82872 open low would undo the false-break read
Thin Asia liquidity until London; next scheduled USD risk is Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC, ahead of Wed CPI
23:17 UTC
Rebounding off Sunday open low, stalling under session high · RSI 58 · price 0.83049
Weekend gap filled; tight consolidation 0.8303–0.8307 after false break of Friday low.
After Friday's fade from the 0.83189 prior high as US yields eased, Sunday's open gapped below the 0.83018 Friday close and flushed to a 0.82872 gap low in thin early Asia session trade. That false break of the 0.82957 prior low reversed quickly and filled the gap. Price is now compressing just under the 0.83072 session high, which lines up with the 61.8% fib of Friday's decline. RSI(14) sits near 58.
Support: 0.83018, 0.82957, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.83072, 0.83189
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.83072 session high / 61.8% fib opens 0.83148–0.83189 prior high
Slip back below the 0.83018 Friday close re-exposes the 0.82957 prior low and 0.82872 gap low
Thin Asia session liquidity; Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC are the next scheduled catalysts
23:04 UTC
Intraday recovery off weekend gap low · RSI 62 · price 0.83069
Gap filled, higher lows since open, at 61.8% retrace.
Monday Asia session opened with a gap below Friday's 0.8302 close. Price swept the friday low at 0.8296 to a 0.8287 gap low, then reversed, filled the gap and set a 0.8307 session high near the 61.8% of the friday high–gap low drop. Early-week trade is thin with no fresh news. RSI(14) sits near 62, and ATR(14) of about 4 pips is inflated by the open.
Support: 0.83018, 0.82957, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.83072, 0.83145, 0.83189
What it said to watch
Holding above the 0.8302 friday close keeps the gap-fill reclaim intact; a slip back under 0.8300 reopens the 0.8296 friday low and the gap low
An M15 close above the 0.8307 session high and 61.8% retrace exposes the 0.8315 swing high and the 0.8319 friday high
Fed's Hammack (Mon 16:50 UTC) and US yield direction into Wed CPI could materially shift this read
22:47 UTC
Friday downtrend, sharp rebound at the Asia reopen · RSI 60 · price 0.83062
False break below Friday low, 0.8300 reclaimed.
Friday's NY slide from the 0.8319 friday high came as US yields eased, and the Asia session reopen gapped lower and swept the 0.8296 friday low to 0.8287. Price snapped back above the 0.8300 round number and is now pressing the 0.8307 session high, which is also the 61.8% fib of the 0.8319–0.8287 drop, with RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82957, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.83071, 0.83148, 0.83189
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8307 session high and 61.8% fib opens the 0.8315 london high, then the 0.8319 friday high
Loss of the 0.8300 round number turns focus back to the 0.8296 friday low and 0.8287 sweep low
Reopen liquidity is thin, so this move is unconfirmed until London. Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC and US yield direction can shift the read
22:32 UTC
Rebounding after weekly-open dip, flat at EMAs · RSI 59 · price 0.83037
Weekly-open gap down, sweep of Friday low reversed back above 0.8300.
The weekly open gapped below Friday's 0.83018 close and dipped through the 0.82957 friday low to a 0.82872 sweep low. Price then reversed through the 0.8300 psych level to a 0.83071 open high. It now sits on the EMA50 in thin early-Asia trade with RSI(14) near 59, after Friday's NY slide from the 0.83189 friday high as US yields eased.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82957, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.83071, 0.83189
What it said to watch
Holding above the 0.8300 psych keeps the false break of the friday low intact. Losing the 50% of the open rebound near 0.8297 reopens the 0.82872 sweep low.
An M15 close above the 0.83071 open high exposes Friday's 0.8315–0.83189 friday high zone.
Asia liquidity is thin, so the first hour of London could reset the range. Fed's Hammack speaks Mon 16:50 UTC ahead of Wed US CPI.
22:17 UTC
Down from Friday high, bouncing after gap · RSI 59 · price 0.83049
Sweep below Friday low reclaimed, back inside range.
Friday slid from the 0.8319 friday high into the 0.8296 friday low as easing US yields weighed on the dollar. The Sunday open gapped lower and swept to 0.8287 in thin early-Asia liquidity, then reclaimed the 0.8300 round number. Price sits near the 50% fib of the friday high to sweep low move, just under the 0.8307 open high, and is back inside Friday's 0.8296–0.8319 range.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82957, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.83071, 0.83148, 0.83189
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8307 open high (61.8% fib) opens 0.8315 london high
Failure to hold the 0.8300 round number re-exposes the 0.8296 friday low and 0.8287 sweep low
Thin Asia session liquidity after the weekend gap keeps moves erratic until London open
Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC; yield direction is the main driver for USD/CHF
22:04 UTC
Friday downtrend, sharp rebound off weekly open · RSI 57 · price 0.83054
Gap-down sweep of Friday low reversed, gap filled.
The weekly open gapped below Friday's 0.8302 close and swept the friday low at 0.8296 down to a 0.8287 sweep low. Price then reversed to fill the gap and now sits near the 61.8% retrace of the friday high-to-open-low drop, around 0.8307. Liquidity is thin in early Asia. Friday's NY slide followed the easing in US yields.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82957, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.83104, 0.83148, 0.83189
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below 0.8300 psych puts the friday low and the 0.8287 sweep low back in focus
An M15 close above the 0.8310 ny pivot opens Friday's london high at 0.8315 and the friday high at 0.8319
Thin early-Asia liquidity means the gap reversal still needs London-session confirmation
Fed's Hammack (Mon 16:50 UTC) and US yield direction could shift this read
21:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Friday NY high · RSI 37 · price 0.82945
Weekend gap lower, Friday low broken, shallow bounce.
The Sunday open gapped about 4 pips below Friday's 0.8302 close, the gap fill level. Price then broke the 0.82957 Friday low to a 0.82872 session low and now sits just under that broken low, with RSI(14) near 37 and ATR(14) about 3.6 pips in thin pre-Asia trade. The move extends Friday's NY decline from the 0.83189 prior high, which came as US yields eased.
Support: 0.8290, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.82957, 0.83018, 0.83189
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.82957 Friday low would undo the break and open the 0.8302 gap fill. The 38.2% of the NY decline fib, near 0.8299, sits just below it.
A failure to hold the 0.8290 round number, followed by a break of the 0.82872 session low, would confirm a fresh lower low.
The 0.83189 prior high caps the 24h range. Only a move back through it would neutralise the NY decline structure.
US yield direction and Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC are the next scheduled inputs. Early-session liquidity is thin, so levels may be less reliable until Asia fills in.
21:32 UTC
Downtrend, extended at the weekly open · RSI 33 · price 0.82938
Lower highs since Friday NY high; weekly open broke below Friday low.
Weekly open gapped about 4 pips below Friday's 0.83018 close and pushed through the Friday low at 0.82957 to a weekly low of 0.82915, in thin early-Asia trade. Friday's lower-highs chain from the 0.83189 Friday high stays intact. That sell-off came as easing US yields softened the dollar, and RSI(14) is near 33.
Support: 0.82915, 0.8290
Resistance: 0.82957, 0.83018, 0.83189
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the Friday low at 0.82957 would turn the weekly-open break into a false break
Gap fill to 0.83018 lines up with the 38.2% fib and the lower-highs line, the first area to watch for rejection or break
Failure to hold the 0.82915 weekly low exposes the 0.8290 psych level
M15 close above the 0.83189 Friday high invalidates the lower-highs read
Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC and US yield moves ahead of Wed CPI could materially shift this read
21:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Friday NY high · RSI 34 · price 0.82957
Lower highs and lower lows from 0.83189; weekly open gapped below Friday close.
Friday's NY session faded from the 0.83189 NY high and broke the 0.82985 Asian low, printing 0.82957 as US yields eased. The week opened about 4 pips below the 0.83018 Friday close and dipped to a 0.82915 open low. Price sits on Friday's low with RSI(14) near 34 and ATR around 3 pips in thin early Asia.
Support: 0.82915, 0.8290
Resistance: 0.82985, 0.83018, 0.83189
What it said to watch
Recovery back above the 0.82985 Asian low returns price to Friday's range; a gap fill at 0.83018 neutralises the open gap
Break of the 0.82915 open low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8290 round number
Recovery through the 50% fib of the NY high to Friday low move (0.83073) breaks the lower-high structure
Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC and weekend geopolitics in thin gap liquidity could shift this read
Lower highs from NY high, day low swept then flat into close.
NY session rejected at the 0.8319 ny high, above the Asian range top. As US yields eased, price then printed lower highs, swept the 0.8298 london low and set a 0.8296 day low. Friday closed flat on the 0.8300 psych with RSI(14) near 41, still below the 38.2% fib at 0.8305 and the descending trendline.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82977, 0.82957
Resistance: 0.83046, 0.83104, 0.83189
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 0.8305 38.2% fib and the descending trendline from the ny high would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.8296 day low extends the lower-low chain below the london low
0.8310 lower high is the next cap if the 0.8300 psych holds through the weekend gap
Weekend geopolitics and Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC could materially shift this read at the Asia open