USD/CHF AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Friday, 13 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CHF 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:13 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling into Friday close · RSI 53 · price 0.83906
Higher low at 0.83605 after PPI; tight 0.8387–0.8396 range under session high.
London swept the Asian low at 0.83449 and then ran 45 pips higher. The soft US PPI print dipped the pair to the 0.83605 ppi low, and NY recovered it to a 0.83965 session high just shy of psych 0.84. Late NY has gone flat, with a brief dip to the 0.83866 late low bought back. Price sits a pip under the ema20 and holds above the ema50, with RSI(14) cooling from 65 to 52.9 and ATR compressed to 4 pips into the weekly close.
Support: 0.83866, 0.83833, 0.83605
Resistance: 0.83911, 0.83965, 0.8400
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.83866 late low exposes the ema50 at 0.83833, which aligns with the 38.2% fib of the ppi-low rally
Break of the ppi-low trendline turns the higher-low structure into a deeper retracement toward the 0.83605 ppi low
Close above the 0.83965 session high brings psych 0.84 (ING key level) into play
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC and Warsh on Monday 17:00 UTC could open the week with a gap away from this range
Tight late-NY range 0.8387–0.8397 beneath session high after NY V-recovery.
The soft US PPI print knocked USDCHF to the NY low at 0.8360. Buyers absorbed it, and the pair reclaimed the move to a session high of 0.8397, just shy of the 0.8400 psych level. Late in the NY session it is compressing in a 10-pip band, ATR down to 4 pips and RSI cooled from 67 to 53. Price sits fractionally below the ema20 at 0.8391, with the ema50 at 0.8383 beneath.
Support: 0.83866, 0.83833, 0.8360
Resistance: 0.83911, 0.83966, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8397 session high puts the 0.8400 psych level in play
Break below the 0.8387 late low exposes the ema50 at 0.8383, near the 38.2% retrace of the NY rally
Loss of the 0.8360 NY low would undo the post-PPI recovery
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC and Warsh on Monday 17:00 UTC could reprice this into the weekly close and reopen
22:25 UTC
Uptrend, momentum flattening into the weekly close · RSI 53 · price 0.83906
Higher lows from the NY low; tight late-NY box under 0.8400.
The pair climbed from the 0.8345 London-open low. A soft-PPI dip to the 0.8360 NY low was absorbed, and the advance stalled at a 0.8397 session high just under the 0.8400 round number, ING's pivot. Late NY has compressed into a narrow box with RSI(14) back to 53 and ATR down to 4 pips; price sits a touch below EMA20 but above the ema50 at 0.8383, with the rising trendline from the NY low still intact.
Support: 0.83866, 0.83833, 0.8360
Resistance: 0.83966, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8387 late low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low sequence
Loss of the ema50 at 0.8383 exposes the 0.8379 fib midpoint of the NY swing
Acceptance above the 0.8397 session high and the 0.8400 round number extends the uptrend
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC falls after the weekly close; remarks could gap the Monday open
Higher lows from 0.8345, flat consolidation under 0.8397 session high.
Rally from the 0.8345 Asia low reclaimed the post-PPI dip from the 0.8360 NY low, then stalled at the 0.8397 session high just under the 0.8400 psych level. Late-NY bars have dipped to the 0.8387 late low and are holding below a flattening EMA20, with RSI(14) cooling from 65 to 53 and ATR compressing to 4 pips. Price sits above the rising EMA50 at 0.8383 and the higher-low trendline.
Support: 0.83866, 0.8383, 0.8360
Resistance: 0.83966, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8387 late low exposes the EMA50 at 0.8383 and the higher-low trendline
Close above the 0.8397 session high puts the 0.8400 psych level in play
A break of the 0.8360 NY low would invalidate the higher-low chain and the 38.2% fib
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could shift this read, with thin liquidity into the weekly close
Tight consolidation under 0.8400 after higher low at 0.8360.
USD/CHF retraced the post-PPI dip to the 0.8360 NY low and rallied to a session high at 0.83965. Fed hike pricing kept USD bid despite the soft PPI print. Since 18:00 UTC price has compressed in a few-pip box just under the 0.8400 round number, sitting above the ema20 with ATR(14) down to 4 pips and RSI(14) at 65.2.
Support: 0.83906, 0.83893, 0.8360
Resistance: 0.83965, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8400 round number clears the session high cap
Loss of the 0.8389 swing low and the ema20 turns the consolidation into a pullback, with the 0.8378 midpoint of the NY low rally fib next
A move back below the 0.8360 ny low invalidates the intraday uptrend
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could break the low-ATR compression in thin late-NY trade
Higher lows since post-PPI low; tight late-NY consolidation under 0.8400.
The soft-PPI dip held at a 0.8360 post-PPI low. A rising-support leg on broad USD strength then cleared the pre-PPI 0.8390 high and printed a 0.83965 session high. Late NY is compressing 3 pips under the 0.8400 psych level with ATR(14) down to 4.1 pips and RSI(14) steady near 63, while price holds above the ema20 (0.8390) and the ema50 (0.8381).
Support: 0.8390, 0.83808, 0.83605
Resistance: 0.83965, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8400 psych clears the session high and extends the post-PPI leg
Failure to hold 0.8390 ema20 and the rising support breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the ema50 at 0.8381
Break of the 0.8360 post-PPI low negates the intraday uptrend read
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC (~3.5h) could materially shift this read in thin late-Friday liquidity
Higher lows since the 0.8360 NY low, tight consolidation under 0.8400.
The soft US PPI print only briefly knocked USD. Price has since climbed back from the 0.8360 NY low and is pinned just under the 0.83965 session high and 0.8400 psych level in late NY hours. ATR has compressed from 7.1 to 4.3 pips and RSI(14) is at 63.8, off its 67.7 peak, while the 0.8389 swing low, near the ema20, keeps holding.
Support: 0.83893, 0.83802, 0.8360
Resistance: 0.83965, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8400 psych clears the session high and extends the uptrend leg
Break below the 0.8389 swing low exposes the ema50 at 0.8380 and the 61.8% retracement of the NY rally
Loss of the NY low at 0.8360 negates the higher-low sequence
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC, about 3.7h out, could shift the read into thin Friday-close liquidity
NY higher lows off 0.8360; tight consolidation below session high.
The soft-PPI dip to the 0.8360 NY low was bought, and the NY rally ran to a 0.83965 session high. Late NY, price is compressing just under the 0.8400 psych level, with ATR(14) easing to 4.4 pips and RSI(14) at 63 off a 68 peak. Higher lows hold along the NY trendline, with the 0.83893 swing low sitting on the ema20.
Support: 0.83893, 0.83796, 0.8360
Resistance: 0.83965, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8400 psych level clears the session high at 0.83965
Break of the 0.83893 swing low and ema20 ends the NY higher-low chain; ema50 at 0.83796 is next
Loss of the NY trendline exposes the ny rally fib zone; a return to the 0.8360 NY low retraces the full post-PPI move
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could shift this read in thin late-Friday trade
Higher lows from NY low, tight consolidation under session high.
The post-PPI flush to the NY low at 0.8360 was fully reversed as the broad USD bid held. Price is now pinned in a 2-pip band just under the 0.83965 session high and the 0.8400 psych level in late NY, with RSI(14) at 63 and ATR compressing to 4.6 pips. The pullback low at 0.8389 sits just above the ema20 and holds the rising trendline from 0.8360.
Support: 0.83893, 0.8379, 0.83605
Resistance: 0.83965, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8400 psych extends the higher-high chain beyond the session high
Break below the 0.8389 pullback low and the rising trendline exposes the ema50 at 0.8379 and the 61.8% fib near 0.8374
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC (~4h) could break the late-NY compression
Higher lows since the 0.8360 NY low, tight late-NY range under the session high.
Buyers absorbed the post-PPI dip at the 0.8360 NY low. Price then carved higher lows to a 0.8397 session high just under the 0.8400 psych level as the hawkish-Fed USD bid held. Late-NY ranges are compressing (ATR 4.8 pips), RSI(14) is at 63.6 and price sits above both EMAs, with the 0.8389 swing low the nearest higher low on the NY rally line.
Support: 0.83893, 0.83784, 0.8360
Resistance: 0.83965, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8400 psych clears the session high and extends the NY rally
Break below the 0.8389 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the ema50 near 0.8378, then the 0.8360 NY low
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could shift USD pricing in thin post-NY Friday liquidity
Higher low at 0.8360 and fresh session high at 0.83965; late-NY compression under the round number.
The post-PPI ppi low at 0.8360 held as a higher low. The NY rally that followed cleared London's 0.83899 high and printed a session high at 0.83965, as the soft headline PPI left Fed hike pricing intact. Price is now holding above the 0.83893 swing low and the rising ema20, just under the 0.8400 round number, with RSI(14) at 64.7 and ATR at 5.1 pips compressing into the late session.
Support: 0.83893, 0.83871, 0.8360
Resistance: 0.83965, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8400 round number extends the breakout beyond the 0.83965 session high
Loss of the 0.83893 swing low and ema20 at 0.83871 breaks the rising support from the 0.8360 ppi low
A close back below the 0.8360 ppi low negates the higher-low sequence
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC (~4.7h) could shift the read in thin post-NY trade
19:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum steady · RSI 65 · price 0.83957
HH/HL chain, pressing 0.8400.
Rising lows run from the 0.8345 London-open low to the 0.8360 NY low. That NY low came after the slightly soft PPI dip was bought, and price is now printing a session high at 0.8396 just under the 0.8400 round number. The 0.8389 swing low held as a higher low late in NY, price stays above the ema20 at 0.8386, RSI(14) is at 65 and ATR is compressing to 5.3 pips into the Friday close.
Support: 0.83893, 0.83862, 0.8360
Resistance: 0.83961, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8389 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes the ema20 at 0.8386
Acceptance above the 0.8400 round number extends the session high run; rejection there leaves a cap into the weekend
Loss of the 0.8360 ny low and the rising lows trendline invalidates the intraday uptrend read
Fed's Jefferson speaks at 00:00 UTC; thin post-NY liquidity could amplify any reaction
18:46 UTC
Uptrend, higher highs through NY · RSI 65 · price 0.83948
HH/HL chain from the 0.8360 NY low, pressing 0.8400.
Late NY recovered the post-PPI flush to the 0.8360 NY low and printed a session high at 0.8395, clearing the London high near 0.8390. The softer headline PPI did little to dent the USD bid. The pullback low at 0.8389 retested that London high and held above the ema20 at 0.8385, with price now just under the 0.8400 round number. RSI(14) sits at 64.7, firm but not stretched.
Support: 0.83893, 0.83853, 0.8360
Resistance: 0.83954, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8400 round number extends the higher-high chain beyond the 0.8395 session high
Break of the 0.8389 pullback low and rising support exposes the ema20 at 0.8385
Loss of the 0.8360 NY low would unwind the post-PPI recovery and break the NY rally fib
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could shift the read in thin late-Friday liquidity
Higher lows from the PPI low; retesting the prior high under 0.8400.
The soft-PPI flush to the 0.8360 ppi low was bought quickly in line with the hawkish Fed repricing, and late NY carried price to a 0.8395 session high just shy of the 0.8400 round number. Price is now retesting the 0.8390 prior high from before the data, with RSI(14) easing to 60 from 68 and ATR contracting to 5.6 pips.
Support: 0.8389, 0.83843, 0.83605
Resistance: 0.83954, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close below ema20 at 0.8384 breaks the higher-low chain and opens the 50% retrace of the PPI low to session high move near 0.8378
Close above the 0.8400 round number clears the session high and extends the NY leg
Failure to hold the 0.8360 ppi low unwinds the post-data recovery
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC into thin late-Friday liquidity could shift this read
Higher lows since NY low, broke the London high, now stalling below 0.8400.
The soft US PPI headline triggered a dip to the 0.8360 NY low. That low was bought and the pair reclaimed the 0.8390 London high, printing a session high at 0.8395 as Fed-hike repricing kept USD firm. Price is now holding the London high ahead of the 0.8400 round number, with RSI(14) cooling from 67.7 to 63.5 and price above the rising ema20 at 0.8384.
Support: 0.83899, 0.83837, 0.8360
Resistance: 0.83953, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8390 London high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the ema20 at 0.8384, near the 38.2% of the NY rally fib, exposes the 50% at 0.8378
Clearance of the 0.8395 session high puts the 0.8400 round number in play; a rejection there caps the leg
A break of the 0.8360 NY low ends the higher-low sequence
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could shift the read in thin late-NY/Asia trade
18:02 UTC
Uptrend, fresh session high late NY · RSI 68 · price 0.83948
Higher low at 0.8360 after PPI dip, higher high above 0.8390 prior high.
USD/CHF climbed from the pre-London 0.8345 low to a fresh session high at 0.8395 late in NY. The move rode the dollar bid on Fed-hike repricing, and the soft-PPI dip held a higher swing low at 0.8360. The NY leg off that low cleared the 0.8390 prior high, with price above both EMAs and RSI(14) at 67.7, short of overbought, while ATR at 5.7 pips compresses into the 0.8400 round number.
Support: 0.83899, 0.83828, 0.8360
Resistance: 0.83953, 0.8400
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 0.8400 round number, the ING-flagged level, would cap the leg just above the session high
A slip back under the 0.8390 prior high toward the ema20 at 0.8383 would mark the breakout as failing
Break of the 0.8360 swing low and rising support ends the higher-low chain
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could shift the read in thin Asia trade
17:45 UTC
Uptrend, fresh session high in late NY · RSI 66 · price 0.83929
Higher low at 0.8360 after PPI shakeout, now above pre-PPI 0.8390 high.
The slightly soft PPI at 13:30 UTC set off a two-way shakeout down to the 0.8360 NY low, which held as a higher low on the rising lows line from the 0.8345 pre-London base. Price has since cleared the 0.8390 prior high to print a 0.8393 session high, with RSI(14) at 66 and ATR at 6.3 pips. The 0.8360-0.8393 post-PPI leg is the move to measure pullbacks against.
Support: 0.8390, 0.83804, 0.8360
Resistance: 0.8393, 0.8400
What it said to watch
0.8400 psych level (ING key level) is the next area to watch for rejection or break into the Friday close
Slip back below the 0.8390 prior high would turn the break into a false break
M15 close below ema20 at 0.8380 weakens the post-PPI recovery
Loss of the 0.8360 NY low breaks the higher-low sequence and the rising lows line
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could shift the read in thin post-NY liquidity
17:31 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows intact into late NY · RSI 66 · price 0.83925
HH/HL chain from the 0.8345 London-open low; post-PPI dip to 0.8360 held as a higher low.
London lifted price off the 0.8345 low at the open and NY extended the leg. The soft-PPI flush to the 0.8360 NY low held as a higher low, and price has since cleared the 0.8390 morning high to a session high at 0.8393. RSI(14) is at 66, short of overbought, and ATR has eased to 6.3 pips from the 7.1 post-PPI peak, with 0.8400 psych directly overhead.
Support: 0.83858, 0.83804, 0.8360
Resistance: 0.8393, 0.8400
What it said to watch
Reaction at 0.8393 session high and 0.8400 psych: rejection or break
M15 close below the 0.8386 pullback low undercuts the latest higher low
Loss of ema20 at 0.8380, then the 0.8360 NY low, breaks the HH/HL chain and puts the leg's 61.8% retracement in play
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC (~6.5h) lands in thin late-Friday liquidity and could shift this read
Higher high 0.83925, higher low 0.8360 after PPI dip.
London lifted USD/CHF off the 0.8345 low into 0.8390. The soft US PPI print triggered a drop to the 0.8360 swing low that was bought on Fed-hike pricing, and late NY set a marginal session high at 0.83925. RSI(14) at 62.5 versus 74 at the prior high marks bearish divergence; price holds above the ema20 at 0.8379 with ATR near 6 pips.
Support: 0.83791, 0.83718, 0.8360
Resistance: 0.83925, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close back below ema20 at 0.8379 exposes ema50 at 0.8372 and the rising lows line
Failure to hold the 0.8360 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 0.83925 session high brings the 0.8400 round number into play
Fed's Daly speaking now and Jefferson in ~7h could shift this read into the Friday close; Warsh due Monday
Higher highs and higher lows from the London low; fresh session high late in NY.
USD/CHF extended the rally that started at the 0.8345 London low to a fresh session high at 0.83925 late in NY. The dip after the soft PPI print to the 0.8360 NY low was bought, holding a higher low on the rising trendline. RSI(14) at 63.7 sits below the 75 reading at the earlier 0.8390 high, a bearish divergence as price nears the 0.8400 round number.
Support: 0.83781, 0.8360, 0.83449
Resistance: 0.83925, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.83925 session high opens the 0.8400 round number
Loss of the ema20 at 0.8378 would put the 0.8360 NY low and rising trendline in play
Break below the 0.8360 NY low ends the higher-low chain
Fed's Daly speaking now and Jefferson in ~7h; comments on December hike sizing could shift this read into the Friday close
16:46 UTC
Uptrend, recovering into session high · RSI 61 · price 0.83851
Higher low at 0.8360 after NY pullback; retesting 0.8390 high.
London lifted the pair out of the Asian range, from the 0.8345 london low to a 0.8390 session high. The slightly soft PPI print drove a NY pullback to the 0.8360 ny low, near the 61.8% fib. That dip met a sharp rejection, and price recovered to 0.8385, above the ema20 (0.8377) and EMA50, with RSI 61 and ATR 6.4 pips.
Support: 0.8377, 0.8360, 0.8345
Resistance: 0.8390, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8390 session high opens the path to the 0.8400 psych level
Loss of the ema20 at 0.8377 returns price to the NY pullback range
Break below the 0.8360 ny low undoes the higher-low structure and the fib hold
Fed's Daly at 17:00 UTC, about 14 minutes out, could shift this read late in the NY session
London higher-low chain intact; post-PPI dip to 0.8360 reclaimed, price back below session high.
London lifted USDCHF from the 0.8345 sweep below the Asian range to a 0.8390 session high. The slightly soft PPI caused a whipsaw: price spiked to a 0.8387 post-PPI high, then dropped to a 0.8360 NY low near the 61.8% retrace of the London rally. That low was rejected sharply, and price is now back above ema20 and ema50 with RSI(14) recovered from 36 to 57.7 and ATR(14) expanded to 6.5 pips.
Support: 0.83761, 0.83672, 0.8360
Resistance: 0.83869, 0.83899, 0.8400
What it said to watch
Fed's Daly at 17:00 UTC (in ~30 min) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.8390 session high opens the 0.8400 round number
Loss of ema20 at 0.8376 puts the 0.8367 ppi low back in focus
Break below the 0.8360 NY low and the London rising trendline ends the higher-low chain
16:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, recovering after deep pullback · RSI 58 · price 0.83815
Higher low at 0.8360, rebound testing below session high.
London ran from the 0.8345 day low to a 0.8390 session high. The soft US PPI miss and a 14:30 UTC sell-off then pulled price to a 0.8360 swing low near the 61.8% fib of the London leg, where demand stepped in sharply. Price is back above the ema20 at 0.8376 with RSI neutral at 57.6 and ATR expanded to 6.7 pips.
Support: 0.83755, 0.83672, 0.83605
Resistance: 0.83869, 0.83899, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8387 lower high and 0.8390 session high reopens the 0.8400 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8367 ppi low, then the 0.8360 swing low, breaks the higher-low line and the intraday uptrend read
Fed's Daly speaks in ~45 min (17:00 UTC) after London close; hawkish December sizing talk could materially shift this read
16:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, choppy after PPI · RSI 57 · price 0.83801
London breakout above Asian range; NY lower high at 0.8387, V-recovery from 0.8360.
London broke above the Asian range near 0.8364 and ran to a session high at 0.8390. The soft US PPI dip to the 0.8367 PPI low was bought. A NY sell-off off a lower high at 0.8387 swept that low into 0.8360, the NY low near the 61.8% retrace, before a sharp reclaim back above ema20. RSI has cooled from 75 to 56.6 while ATR has expanded to 6.9 pips.
Support: 0.83749, 0.83672, 0.8360
Resistance: 0.83869, 0.83899, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8387 lower high and 0.8390 session high reopens the 0.8400 psych level
Close back below ema20 at 0.8375 returns focus to the 0.8367 PPI low
Failure to hold the 0.8360 NY low breaks the London higher-low sequence
Fed's Daly at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
15:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, choppy since PPI · RSI 53 · price 0.8378
London higher-low chain intact; post-PPI lower high, 61.8% retrace held.
London lifted USDCHF from 0.8345 to a 0.8390 session high. After the slightly soft PPI, NY set a 0.8387 lower high, then flushed to a 0.8360 swing low at the 61.8% retrace, and one bar later price was back above ema20 (0.8374). RSI(14) has reset from 75 to 53, and ATR(14) has widened from 4.5 to 7 pips.
Support: 0.83743, 0.83683, 0.8360
Resistance: 0.83869, 0.83899, 0.8400
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman in minutes, Daly at 17:00 UTC: comments on December hike sizing could shift this read
M15 close above the 0.8390 session high opens the 0.8400 round number
Rejection again under the 0.8387 lower high keeps NY trading inside a 0.8360–0.8390 range
Close back below ema50 (0.8368) and the 0.8360 swing low breaks the London higher-low sequence
London higher-low chain intact; NY pullback held at 61.8% fib.
London rallied from the 0.8345 pre-open low to the 0.8390 session high. The slightly soft US PPI then set off a two-way NY swing that retraced to the 61.8% fib near the 0.8360 NY low, where buyers stepped in sharply. Price is back above the ema20 (0.8374) and ema50 (0.8368), with RSI(14) reset to 53 from 75 and ATR expanding to 7.1 pips.
Support: 0.83741, 0.8368, 0.83605
Resistance: 0.83899, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8390 session high reopens the 0.8400 psych level
Loss of the ema50 at 0.8368 puts the 0.8360 NY low back in play
Failure to hold the 0.8360 NY low breaks the London higher-low sequence
Fed's Bowman at 15:50 UTC and Daly at 17:00 UTC: any talk of a 50bp December hike could shift this read
Lower high at 0.8387 after 0.8390 day high; post-PPI low 0.8367 broken.
The London leg from the 0.8345 london low topped at the 0.8390 day high. A softer US PPI then sparked a spike, and the bounce stalled at a 0.8387 lower high. NY has since broken the 0.8367 PPI low, leaving price below the ema20 and ema50 and sitting on the NY low at 0.8360, the 61.8% retrace of the London leg. RSI(14) has cooled from 75 to 36 while ATR has expanded to 6.4 pips.
Support: 0.8360, 0.83534, 0.83449
Resistance: 0.83677, 0.83738, 0.83899
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the NY low at 0.8360 exposes the 0.8353 swing low, then the 0.8345 london low
An M15 close back above the ema50 near 0.8368 (PPI low) negates the double top breakdown
Price reclaiming the ema20 at 0.8374 would put the lower highs line under test toward the day high
15:01 UTC
London uptrend broken, early NY pullback · RSI 40 · price 0.83669
Lower high at 0.8387 then lower low at 0.8361, London trendline lost.
London's climb from the 0.8345 London low topped at the 0.8390 day high. After the slightly soft PPI print, NY made a lower high at 0.8387, then broke the London trendline and the 0.8367 PPI-spike low to an NY low at 0.8361, near the 61.8% of the London leg fib. Price sits below the ema20 (0.8375) and is testing the ema50 (0.8368) from beneath, with RSI(14) cooled to 40 from 75 and ATR expanding to 6.1 pips.
Support: 0.83606, 0.83449
Resistance: 0.8368, 0.83752, 0.83899
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 15:50 UTC and Daly at 17:00 UTC could reprice December hike odds and shift this read
M15 close back above the ema20 at 0.8375 negates the double top and the lower-low read
Failure to hold the 0.8361 NY low exposes the 0.8345 London low
Rejection at the ema50 near 0.8368 confirms it as resistance
14:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalling, pullback under way · RSI 44 · price 0.83681
Lower high at 0.8387 after 0.8390 session high; retesting the PPI low.
The London rally from the 0.8345 London low topped at the 0.8390 session high. The soft PPI dip to 0.8367 was bought, but NY printed a lower high at 0.8387, and price is back on the PPI low, which coincides with ema50 (0.8368) and the 50% fib of the London leg. RSI(14) has cooled from 75 to 44, close is below ema20 at 0.8376, and ATR is expanding to 5.8 pips.
Support: 0.83672, 0.83638, 0.83449
Resistance: 0.83762, 0.83869, 0.83899
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8367 PPI low and ema50 exposes the 0.8364 Asian high, then the 0.8345 London low
Recovery back above ema20 at 0.8376 points to another test of the 0.8387 lower high and the 0.8390 session high
Fed's Bowman at 15:50 UTC and Daly at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read via December hike-sizing pricing
14:31 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling after PPI · RSI 59 · price 0.83795
Higher lows intact, lower high at 0.8387 under session high.
London open swept below the Asian range to 0.8345, then broke the Asian high at 0.8364 and ran to a session high of 0.8390. The softer US PPI print knocked it back to the 0.8367 PPI low near the 50% retrace, where demand stepped in. Early NY now trades just above the ema20 at 0.8377 with RSI(14) cooled from 75 to 58.6, while the post-PPI high at 0.8387 caps.
Support: 0.83769, 0.83672, 0.8364
Resistance: 0.83869, 0.83899, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8390 session high opens the 0.8400 round number
Close below ema20 and the 0.8367 PPI low breaks the rally trendline and higher-low chain, exposing the 0.8364 asian high
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) on December hike sizing could materially shift this read
ATR at 5.5 pips and expanding since PPI, so intraday swings are widening
HH/HL chain from London low; post-PPI dip rejected, retesting session high.
London opened with a dip under the Asian range to the 0.8345 London low, then a steady HH/HL climb on the USD bid from Fed hike repricing to a 0.8390 session high. The softer PPI headline spiked price to the 0.8367 PPI low, at the London trend line, the 50% fib of the London leg and ema50; the dip was quickly rejected. Price is back above ema20 with RSI(14) cooled to 64 from 75 and ATR at 5.3 pips.
Support: 0.83766, 0.83672, 0.83449
Resistance: 0.83899, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8390 session high puts the 0.8400 round number in play
Loss of ema20 at 0.8377 exposes the 0.8367 PPI low; a break there snaps the London trend HL chain
Break of the 0.8345 London low unwinds the full London leg fib
Fed's Bowman 15:50 UTC and Daly 17:00 UTC on December hike sizing could materially shift this read
14:01 UTC
Uptrend, cooling from overbought · RSI 62 · price 0.83799
HH/HL chain off London low; PPI dip reclaimed.
A steady HH/HL climb from the 0.8345 London low reached a 0.8390 session high as USD stayed bid on Fed hike repricing. The soft headline PPI dip to the 0.8367 ppi low, at the 50% fib of the London rally, was a false break of the 0.8375 swing lows and was bought back above the ema20. RSI(14) has cooled from 75 to 62 and ATR is expanding to 5.4 pips early in the NY session.
Support: 0.83759, 0.83672, 0.83449
Resistance: 0.83899, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8390 session high puts the 0.8400 round number in play
Loss of the ppi low at 0.8367 breaks the London trend support and the 50% fib
Fed's Bowman at 15:50 UTC and Daly at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the ema20 at 0.8376 points to a deeper test of the London rally
A move back to the 0.8345 london low would unwind the session's rally
13:45 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling after PPI · RSI 57 · price 0.83764
HH/HL chain from London low intact; PPI dip held near 50% retrace.
London lifted USDCHF from the 0.8345 session low through the Asia high at 0.8364 to a 0.8390 session high, extending the Fed-repricing bid. The slightly soft PPI headline knocked price to 0.8367, the ppi low at the 50% fib of the London leg just above ema50, where it was rejected and recovered to ema20. RSI(14) has cooled from 75 to 56.5 and ATR expanded to 5.2 pips on the release bar.
Support: 0.83753, 0.83672, 0.83638
Resistance: 0.83899, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8367 ppi low and ema50 breaks the London HL chain and exposes the 0.8364 asia high
Reclaim of the 0.8390 session high opens the 0.8400 round number
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) on December hike sizing could materially shift this read
London higher-high chain to 0.8390, PPI pullback into 38.2%.
London ran from the 0.8345 session low through the Asian high near 0.8364 to a 0.8390 session high. That high met rejection. The softer headline PPI then knocked price to 0.8372, the 38.2% fib of the London rally, where it is holding just above the ema20 with RSI(14) cooled from 75 to 61.
Support: 0.83752, 0.83721, 0.83658
Resistance: 0.83899
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.8372 (38.2% fib) exposes the ema50 at 0.8366 and the Asian high
Reclaim of the 0.8390 session high opens the 0.8400 round number
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) on December hike sizing could shift this read
HH/HL chain from London open low; first pullback off session high.
After a dip to 0.8345 at London open, price broke the Asian high at 0.8364 and built a steady HH/HL chain to a session high at 0.8390 on hawkish Fed repricing. The first pullback is holding the 0.8381 pullback low above the ema20 at 0.8375, with RSI(14) cooling from 75 to 68.6 ahead of US PPI.
Support: 0.83813, 0.83747, 0.83638
Resistance: 0.83899, 0.8400
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (14 min) could materially shift this read; ATR 4.7 pips likely to expand
M15 close below the 0.8381 pullback low exposes the ema20 at 0.8375 and the 38.2% fib near 0.8373
Clearance of the 0.8390 session high puts the 0.8400 round number in play
Return below the Asian high at 0.8364 would negate the London breakout
Fed's Bowman at 15:50 UTC is the next scheduled risk
13:02 UTC
Uptrend, RSI overbought into PPI · RSI 74 · price 0.8386
Higher highs and higher lows since London open, above broken Asian range.
London broke above the Asian high at 0.8364 within the first hour and has stepped up in a clean higher-low sequence to a 0.8390 session high, carried by USD strength on Fed hike repricing. RSI(14) at 74 is hot but not extreme, ATR(14) is steady at 4.7 pips, and price is holding well above a rising ema20 near 0.8374 ahead of US PPI.
Support: 0.8379, 0.83739, 0.8364
Resistance: 0.8390, 0.8400
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, about 30 minutes out, could materially shift this read. A core miss is the bigger shakeout risk for an extended USD.
An M15 close above the 0.8390 session high opens the 0.8400 round number.
A close below the 0.8379 swing low breaks the London higher-low chain and the london hl line.
Loss of ema20 at 0.8374 puts the Asian high at 0.8364 in focus as a retest. That level sits near the 61.8% of the london leg fib.
12:46 UTC
Uptrend, RSI overbought · RSI 75 · price 0.83874
HH/HL chain since London open, above Asian range.
London cleared the Asian high at 0.8364 early and has stacked higher lows along a rising trendline off the 0.8345 pre-London low, printing a session high at 0.8387 as USD rides the Fed hike repricing. RSI(14) at 75 is overbought but ATR is steady near 4.7 pips, and price holds above a rising ema20 at 0.8373.
Support: 0.83791, 0.83727, 0.83638
Resistance: 0.83874, 0.8400
What it said to watch
US PPI in ~44 min, ahead of NY open, could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.8379 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the HL chain
0.8400 round number is the next level to watch for rejection or break above the session high
Slip back under the Asian high at 0.8364 would undo the London breakout
12:31 UTC
Uptrend, RSI hot near session high · RSI 71 · price 0.8382
HH/HL chain from London low, Asian high reclaimed.
London open swept below the Asian low and set the london low at 0.8345. Price then climbed in a steady HH/HL chain through the Asian high at 0.8364, which was retested and held, to a 0.8385 session high, extending the USD bid on hawkish Fed repricing. RSI(14) sits at 71, overbought but not extreme, and price trades above both EMAs; ATR is a modest 4.6 pips.
Support: 0.83713, 0.83638, 0.83449
Resistance: 0.83845, 0.8400
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) in under an hour could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.8385 session high opens the 0.8400 round number
Close back below ema20 near 0.8371 breaks the HH/HL chain; the Asian high at 0.8364 sits near the 50% fib of the London leg
Loss of the 0.8345 london low would negate the London advance
12:16 UTC
Uptrend, overbought into the session high · RSI 72 · price 0.83807
Higher highs and higher lows since London swept the Asian low.
London swept the Asian low at 0.8345, then broke the Asian high at 0.8364. It has stacked higher lows, with the latest swing low at 0.8375, up to a session high at 0.8382 as Fed-hike repricing keeps USD firm. RSI(14) is overbought at 72.2 with price riding above a rising EMA20 at 0.8370. ATR is about 4.6 pips per bar ahead of US PPI.
Support: 0.83752, 0.83704, 0.83638
Resistance: 0.83819, 0.8400
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (15:30 broker) could materially shift this read; a hot core print is the scenario tied to the round number at 0.8400
M15 close above the 0.8382 session high opens the path to 0.8400
Failure to hold the 0.8375 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the ema20 at 0.8370
Return below the 0.8364 Asian high turns the London breakout into a false break
HH/HL chain since London; Asian range broken higher.
Early London swept the Asian low to 0.8345, then cleared the Asian high at 0.8364 and stepped up to a 0.8381 session high on firm USD and Fed-hike repricing. Price is holding above the ema20 at 0.8369 and the ema50, but RSI(14) has eased from 72.5 and ATR is flat at 4.6 pips, so the leg is stalling under 0.8382 ahead of US PPI.
Support: 0.83752, 0.83692, 0.83638
Resistance: 0.83812, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8375 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
A pullback holding the ema20 (0.8369) or the 0.8364 Asian high, near the fib 50%, keeps the breakout intact
Close above the 0.8381 session high opens the 0.8400 round number
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain since London open, Asian range broken to the upside.
London opened with a sweep below the Asian range to 0.8345, then broke the Asian high at 0.8364 and built a higher-low chain to a 0.8380 session high as Fed-hike repricing kept the dollar bid. RSI(14) sits at 72.3 and ATR(14) at 4.7 pips, with price above the ema20 at 0.8368 and the 10:45 UTC swing low at 0.8374 as nearest support.
Support: 0.83736, 0.83682, 0.83638
Resistance: 0.83803, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8374 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Loss of the ema20 at 0.8368 and the 0.8364 asian high would put the breakout at risk; the 50% fib of the London leg sits near 0.8363
Session high at 0.8380 is the area to watch for rejection or break, with the 0.8400 round number above
US core PPI at 13:30 UTC (about 1h45 away) could materially shift this read
London dipped below the Asian range to a London low at 0.8345, then reversed and broke the 0.8364 Asian high. It printed a session high at 0.8380, a one-month top, as Fed 50bp hike talk kept USD bid. RSI(14) has eased to 68.4 from 72.5 and ATR is 4.6 pips, with price holding above the ema20 at 0.8367 into the late London session.
Support: 0.8367, 0.8364, 0.8345
Resistance: 0.8380, 0.8400
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, with core YoY in focus, could materially shift this read at the NY open
M15 close back below the ema20 at 0.8367 and the 0.8364 Asian high puts the breakout into question and exposes the 50% fib of the London leg
Break of the London higher-low trendline signals the HH/HL chain is stalling
Clearance of the 0.8380 session high opens the 0.8400 round number; failure there leaves a lower-high under it
Loss of the 0.8345 London low reverses the session structure
11:16 UTC
Uptrend, RSI hot but ATR steady · RSI 73 · price 0.83773
Higher-low chain since London open, above Asian range.
London broke the Asian high at 0.8364 off a 0.8345 open low and built a higher-low chain to a 0.8380 session high. Price holds above a rising ema20 (0.8366) with RSI(14) at 72.5 as Fed 50bp repricing keeps USD firm, and ATR is steady near 4.6 pips. The 10:00 UTC swing low at 0.8369 sits on the higher-low line, and the 38.2% retrace of the London leg lines up with ema20.
Support: 0.83686, 0.83661, 0.83638
Resistance: 0.83797, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8369 swing low breaks the higher-low line and opens the ema20 / 38.2% of the London leg near 0.8366
Return inside the Asian range below the 0.8364 Asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Acceptance above the 0.8380 session high puts the 0.8400 round number in play
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
11:01 UTC
Uptrend, RSI near 70 · RSI 69 · price 0.83758
London HH/HL chain after an Asian-low sweep; Asian high broken.
London open swept below the Asian range to the 0.8345 london low, then a steady HH/HL run broke the 0.8364 asian high and set a session high at 0.8377, extending one-month highs as Fed 50bp hike talk keeps USD firm. RSI(14) at 69.3 sits just under overbought, ATR(14) is 4.5 pips, and price holds above a rising EMA20 (0.8365) and EMA50 (0.8358).
Support: 0.83686, 0.83638, 0.83449
Resistance: 0.83768, 0.8400
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 0.8364 asian high, near EMA20 and the 38.2% of the london leg fib, undercuts the breakout
Loss of the 0.8369 swing low breaks the London HH/HL chain
Acceptance above the 0.8377 session high opens the 0.8400 round number
10:46 UTC
Uptrend, steady through London · RSI 70 · price 0.83755
Higher-low chain from London open, Asian range high broken.
London opened with a sweep below the Asian low to the 0.8345 london low, then rallied in a clean higher-low chain. The move cleared the Asian range high at 0.8364, where ema20 also sits, and printed a session high at 0.8376 as USD stays bid on 50bp December Fed hike talk. RSI(14) is 69.7, just short of overbought, and ATR(14) has expanded to 4.6 pips.
Support: 0.8364, 0.83578, 0.83449
Resistance: 0.8376, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 0.8364 (asia high / ema20) puts the breakout in question and exposes ema50 at 0.8358
Acceptance above the 0.8376 session high opens the path to the 0.8400 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8345 london low unwinds the London rally
A break of the London higher lows trendline marks the first loss of momentum
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) in about 2h45 could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain after London swept the Asian low and broke the Asian high.
London open swept below the Asian range to a London low at 0.8345, then reversed and cleared the Asian high at 0.8364 to a new session high at 0.8376 as USD stays firm into PPI. Higher lows are stepping up along the London trendline. Price sits above a rising ema20 at 0.8363, which lines up with the Asian high and the 38.2% fib, while RSI(14) at 69 is warm but not overbought and ATR has widened to 4.8 pips.
Support: 0.83686, 0.83638, 0.83449
Resistance: 0.8376, 0.8400
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8369 higher low exposes the Asian high and ema20 cluster at 0.8363–0.8364
An M15 close back below the Asian high at 0.8364 and the London trendline undercuts the breakout read
Acceptance above the 0.8376 session high puts the 0.8400 round number in view
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read, with Bowman at 15:50 UTC after it
10:16 UTC
Uptrend, steady London advance · RSI 68 · price 0.83721
HH/HL chain from the 0.8345 London-open low; Asian range broken to the upside.
London opened with a sweep below the Asian low to 0.8345, then the London leg cleared the 0.8364 Asian high and the 0.8368 month high. That printed a 0.8374 session high on a USD firm after the hot CPI. Higher lows hold along the London trendline, price sits above both EMAs, RSI is 68 and ATR has expanded to 4.8 pips.
Support: 0.8368, 0.83638, 0.83617
Resistance: 0.83741, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8364 asian high puts the London breakout in doubt
A break of the London trendline and the 0.8362 ema20 would end the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 0.8374 session high opens the 0.8400 round number; failure there keeps price pinned near the 0.8368 month high
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read, with Bowman at 15:50 UTC
10:01 UTC
Uptrend, fresh session high · RSI 65 · price 0.83699
London leg of higher lows; Asian range broken to upside.
Early London swept under the Asian range to the 0.8345 london low, then the London leg reversed through the Asian high at 0.8364 to a session high at 0.8373. The move came on firm USD and Fed-SNB divergence, with price above the ema20 (0.8361), RSI(14) 64.5 and ATR(14) expanding to 4.8 pips.
Support: 0.83638, 0.83606, 0.83449
Resistance: 0.83725, 0.8400
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the Asian high at 0.8364 would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the ema20 and the higher-low trendline puts the 0.8345 london low back in play
Acceptance above the session high at 0.8373 opens the path to the 0.8400 round number
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, around NY open, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since London open; Asian range high broken.
London opened with a sweep under the Asian range to a 0.8345 london low after the hot Swiss PPI, then reversed. It cleared the 0.8364 asian high and Thursday's 0.8361 peak to print a 0.8372 session high on firm Fed-hike pricing. The higher-low chain holds above the ema20 at 0.8360. RSI(14) is 68.4, hot but not overbought, and ATR has expanded to 4.8 pips.
Support: 0.8364, 0.8360, 0.8345
Resistance: 0.8372, 0.8382
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8364 asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.8345 london low breaks the London rising line and the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 0.8372 session high opens the 0.8382 upside ref
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
09:31 UTC
Uptrend, fresh session high · RSI 65 · price 0.83673
Asian range break, higher lows since London low.
London broke above the Asian high at 0.8364 and printed a session high at 0.8368, extending the four-day USD/CHF climb on firm December Fed hike pricing. The firm Swiss PPI print was absorbed after the dip to the 0.8345 London low. Higher lows have formed since, with price above both EMAs, RSI(14) at 64.9 and ATR at 4.9 pips, up from 3.3 overnight.
Support: 0.83638, 0.83585, 0.83449
Resistance: 0.83684, 0.8370
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.8364 Asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
A loss of the ema20 at 0.83585 and the rising trendline breaks the London higher-low chain
The 0.8370 round number just above the session high is the area to watch for rejection or extension
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~4h), then Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
London swept the Asian low, then broke above the Asian high. Higher lows since 0.8345..
London open swept below the Asian range low to 0.8345 and reversed. Price cleared the Asian high at 0.8364 and printed a session high at 0.8368, the top of the 24h window. Price is above ema20 and ema50, RSI(14) is at 63.6 and ATR has expanded to 4.9 pips, with firm USD into today's PPI as the backdrop.
Support: 0.8364, 0.83576, 0.83449
Resistance: 0.8368, 0.8382
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.8364 asian high puts price back inside the Asian range and weakens the breakout read
Loss of the rising trendline from the london low and of ema20 at 0.8358 would break the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 0.8368 session high opens the 0.8382 upside ref
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read; Fed's Bowman follows at 15:50 UTC
09:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, fresh highs early London · RSI 66 · price 0.8366
Asian range low swept at London open, then broken above the Asian high.
London open swept under the Asian range low to 0.8345 before reversing. The rebound has cleared the Asian high at 0.8364 to a session high of 0.8368, with USD firm into PPI. RSI(14) sits at 65.6 and ATR(14) has expanded to 4.9 pips; price holds above both EMAs, with ema20 at 0.8357 near the 50% retrace of the London rally.
Support: 0.83638, 0.83568, 0.83449
Resistance: 0.8368, 0.8382
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.8364 Asian high would mark the breakout as a false break
A break of the London higher lows trendline puts ema20 at 0.8357 and the 50% retrace in play
Failure to hold the 0.8345 London low negates the sweep-and-reverse read
Acceptance above the 0.8368 session high opens 0.8382, the reference target in recent commentary
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (in ~4.5h) and Bowman at 15:50 UTC could materially shift this read
08:46 UTC
Uptrend, momentum building · RSI 64 · price 0.83661
London swept the Asian low then broke the Asian high; higher lows since 07:00 UTC.
London open swept below the Asian low to the 0.8345 london low, then reversed through the Swiss PPI release. The rally has cleared the 0.8364 asian high to a session high at 0.8366, with price above ema20 (0.8356) and ATR(14) expanding to 4.9 pips from 3.3. RSI(14) at 64.2 is firm, not stretched, as USD stays bid ahead of US PPI.
Support: 0.83638, 0.83557, 0.83449
Resistance: 0.83664, 0.8370, 0.8382
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 0.8364 asian high on a retest puts price back inside the Asian range
M15 close above the 0.8370 round number opens 0.8382, the next upside ref
Break of the higher-low trendline and ema20 at 0.8356 exposes the 0.8345 london low
08:31 UTC
Sideways after NY rally, range-bound · RSI 54 · price 0.83566
0.8345–0.8364 range since NY afternoon, mid-upper range early London.
Yesterday's NY rally off 0.8311 has stalled into a range. The range top at 0.8361–0.8364 (asian high) has rejected four times. London opened with a flush to 0.8345 that briefly undercut the Asian low, held just above the 38.2% fib of the NY rally, and was reclaimed. Price is back above the ema20 and ema50 with RSI(14) neutral at 54 and ATR(14) up to 4.6 pips from 3.3.
Support: 0.83546, 0.83526, 0.83449
Resistance: 0.83616, 0.83638
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8364 asian high breaks the range top and resumes the NY rally structure
Loss of ema20/ema50 at 0.8355/0.8353 shifts price back to the lower half of the range
Failure to hold the 0.8345 london low and the 38.2% fib breaks the range lower, toward 0.8340
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read; Bowman follows at 15:50 UTC
0.8345–0.8364 range; London-open dip below Asian low reclaimed, range top capping.
Ranging between 0.8345 and 0.8364. The London open dipped through the Asian range low to a 0.8345 london low and was reclaimed, but the rebound stalled again at the 0.8362 range top, the fourth rejection there since the NY session. Price is just above ema20 and ema50 with RSI(14) neutral at 51. ATR(14) has expanded from ~3.3 to 4.6 pips, and the hot Swiss PPI print drew no lasting CHF demand.
Support: 0.83524, 0.83449
Resistance: 0.83616, 0.83638
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8364 asian high breaks the range top and invalidates the range read
Failure to hold ema50 near 0.8352 exposes the 0.8345 london low; a break there turns the London rebound into a lower low
Price holding inside the London rebound fib (50–61.8% at 0.8353–0.8351) keeps the dip-and-reclaim structure intact
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read, with Bowman at 15:50 UTC
08:01 UTC
Sideways after NY rally, range-bound · RSI 53 · price 0.83584
0.8345–0.8364 range since late NY; London-open dip below Asian low reclaimed.
USD/CHF is holding yesterday's NY rally on Fed-SNB divergence, boxed in 0.8345–0.8364. The London-open drop dipped below the Asian low to a 0.8345 london low and has retraced most of the london drop. Price is back above ema20 and ema50 with RSI(14) at 53, while ATR(14) has expanded to 4.5 pips from 3.3.
Support: 0.83543, 0.83523, 0.8345
Resistance: 0.8364, 0.8382
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8364 asian high breaks the range and opens the 0.8382 upside mark
Failure to hold the 0.8345 london low turns the dip into a range break lower
Loss of ema20 and ema50 (0.8354/0.8352) puts price back in the lower half of the range
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (15:30 broker) could materially shift this read
07:46 UTC
Sideways, below flat EMAs · RSI 47 · price 0.83527
Asian range 0.8350–0.8364, false break of floor reclaimed.
A rejection at 0.8362 just before 07:00 UTC triggered a 07:00 drop through the 0.8350 round number to a session low of 0.8345. That false break of the Asian range floor was reclaimed. Price now sits at the midpoint of that drop, just under the ema20 (0.8354) and ema50 (0.8352), with RSI 46.7 and ATR up to 4.4 pips. A shallow lower highs line from the 0.8364 Asian high caps the tape ahead of the London open, while the firm USD tone keeps the pair near the top of the overnight range.
Support: 0.8350, 0.83449
Resistance: 0.83541, 0.83616, 0.83638
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8345 session low turns the false break into a range break lower
M15 close back above the ema20 at 0.8354 and the 0.8362 rejection high reopens the 0.8364 asian high
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
A break of the lower highs line would mark the 07:00 drop as fully retraced
07:31 UTC
Sideways after NY rally, range-bound · RSI 51 · price 0.83547
0.8345–0.8364 range since NY afternoon, false break of range low into London open.
Fed-SNB divergence drove yesterday's NY rally from 0.8311, and the pair has since ranged below the Asia high at 0.8364, with a fresh swing high at 0.8362 rejected just before the London open. The drop that followed briefly broke below the range low to a 0.8345 swing low, near the 38.2% retracement of the NY rally, then recovered to the ema20 and stays above the ema50 at 0.8352. RSI(14) is neutral at 50.6 and ATR(14) has expanded to 4.4 pips.
Support: 0.83522, 0.83449, 0.8340
Resistance: 0.83616, 0.83638
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8345 swing low turns the false break into a range break, with the 0.8340 prior pivot next
Loss of the ema50 at 0.8352 puts the range low back under pressure
M15 close above the 0.8362 swing high and the 0.8364 asia high ends the range read
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read; Bowman speaks at 15:50 UTC
07:16 UTC
Sideways after the NY rally, early London volatility rising · RSI 45 · price 0.83534
Asian range 0.8349–0.8364; its low was swept pre-London and reclaimed.
Pre-London selling swept below the Asian range low and Thursday's late low to the 0.8345 sweep low, near the 38.2% retracement of the NY rally. Buyers lifted price back to 0.8353, between the ema50 (0.8352) and ema20 (0.8354); the last close is below both, RSI(14) is a neutral 45.4 and ATR(14) has expanded to 4.5 pips. Supply has capped twice at the 0.8362 prior high, just under the 0.8364 Asian high.
Support: 0.83521, 0.83449, 0.8340
Resistance: 0.83543, 0.83616, 0.83638
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.8345 sweep low turns the reclaim into a lower low and exposes the 0.8340 ny pivot and the 38.2% fib
A break above the 0.8362 prior high and 0.8364 Asian high takes price out of the range to the upside
Holding back under the ema20 at 0.8354 keeps the range-low retest in play
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read through December Fed hike pricing
Lower high at 0.8362 under the 0.8364 Asia high, Asian range low broken at London open.
London open broke the 0.8349 Asian low after a lower high at 0.8362 failed under the 0.8364 Asia high. Price is below both EMAs at the 38.2% retrace of the 0.8311–0.8364 rally, with RSI(14) at 39.3 and ATR expanding to 4.4 pips; the 0.8340 swing low is the next reference.
Support: 0.8340, 0.8338, 0.8333
Resistance: 0.8349, 0.8352, 0.8364
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8349 Asian low and the 0.8352 ema50 negates the range break
Failure to hold the 0.8340 swing low exposes the fib 50% at 0.8338, then the 0.8333 prior high
Clearing the 0.8364 Asia high and the lower highs trendline voids the double top read
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
06:46 UTC
Sideways after NY rally, higher lows intact · RSI 52 · price 0.83568
Inside Asian range 0.8349–0.8364, pre-London.
USD/CHF is boxed inside the Asian range 0.8349–0.8364 after Thursday's NY rally off 0.8311, with Williams' hawkish remarks lifting the pair to the Asian high. A pre-London push to 0.8362 met rejection just under that high. Price sits marginally above ema20 at 0.8355 with higher lows on the rising trendline, RSI 51.7 neutral, ATR 3.8 pips and ticking up.
Support: 0.83553, 0.83522, 0.8349
Resistance: 0.83616, 0.83638
What it said to watch
Close above 0.8364 asian high breaks the range to the upside
Loss of ema50 at 0.8352 and the rising trendline puts the 0.8349 asian low in play
Hold of the 0.8344 area (38.2% of the NY rally fib) keeps the rally structure intact
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~6.7h) could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Uptrend, pressing Asian range top · RSI 62 · price 0.83597
Asian range 0.8349–0.8364, higher lows since 04:15 UTC.
USD/CHF held the rally from the 0.8311 low after hot-CPI Fed pricing, then the leg extended after Williams' hawkish remarks. Late in the Asia session, price is building higher lows off the 0.8349 asian low, near the 23.6% fib of the 0.8311–0.8364 leg, and is retesting the 0.8361 prior high below the 0.8364 asian high. Price sits above ema20 (0.8355) and ema50 (0.8352), RSI(14) is 61.8 and ATR is 3.4 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 0.83552, 0.83521, 0.8349
Resistance: 0.83614, 0.83638
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8364 asian high breaks the Asian range top
Loss of ema20 at 0.8355 and the HL trendline returns price to mid-range, with ema50 at 0.8352 next
Break below the 0.8349 asian low ends the higher-low chain
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, with core YoY forecast at 5%, could materially shift this read
Asian range 0.8349–0.8364, higher low printed, price pressing range top.
Late Asia session: USD/CHF is back at the 0.8361 prior high and just under the 0.8364 asian high after a higher low at 0.8351 held above the 0.8349 asian low. Price sits above a flattening ema20 and rising ema50, with RSI(14) at 62 and ATR compressed at 3.4 pips. USD stays firm into today's PPI.
Support: 0.83548, 0.83518, 0.8349
Resistance: 0.83614, 0.83638
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8364 asian high breaks the Asian range top ahead of London open
Loss of the higher lows trendline and the ema20 at 0.8355 points back toward the ema50 at 0.8352
Failure to hold the 0.8349 asian low breaks the intraday higher-low sequence
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, in about 7h, could materially shift this read
Asian range 0.8346–0.8364; higher lows since the 0.8349 swing low.
USD-firm tone after Williams' hawkish remarks lifted the pair to the 0.8364 Asian high. That spike faded to a 0.8349 swing low, and price has since built rising lows above the ema20, now pressing the 0.8357 recent high near the 50% of the Asian pullback fib. ATR has compressed to 3.3 pips and RSI sits at 55.7 into the run-up to London open, still inside the Asian range.
Support: 0.83542, 0.8349, 0.83464
Resistance: 0.83574, 0.83638
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8357 recent high puts the 0.8364 asian high in play; a close beyond it breaks the Asian range
Loss of the ema20 at 0.8354 and the rising-lows line flags a retest of the 0.8349 swing low
Break of the 0.8346 asian low invalidates the range read
London open may expand the compressed 3.3-pip ATR
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
05:46 UTC
Uptrend paused, consolidating below Asian high · RSI 57 · price 0.83564
Tight 0.8349–0.8364 Asian range after NY rally from 0.8311.
NY hawkish Fed tone lifted the pair from the 0.8311 London low to the 0.8361 NY high, and Williams' remarks pushed it to an Asian high at 0.8364. Since then the pullback has stalled at the 0.8349 asian low, near the 23.6% fib of the rally. Late Asia price sits back above the ema20 and ema50 with RSI 57.3 and ATR compressed to 3.3 pips.
Support: 0.8354, 0.8351, 0.8349
Resistance: 0.8361, 0.8364
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8364 asian high resumes the HH chain through the 0.8361 ny high
Failure to hold the 0.8349 asian low and the ema50 at 0.8351 extends the fib pullback toward the 38.2% near 0.8344
London open may break the compressed Asian range as ATR expands from 3.3 pips
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
Tight Asia range 0.8349–0.8356 below the session high, above ema50.
The USD-driven rally from 0.8311 ran to an Asia high at 0.8364 near midnight UTC, then faded. Since 01:30 UTC price has compressed in a 0.8349–0.8356 range, holding the range low just above ema50 (0.8351) and the 23.6% fib of the rally. RSI(14) is flat near 52 and ATR(14) has eased to 3.2 pips from 4.0.
Support: 0.8349, 0.83464, 0.8340
Resistance: 0.8356, 0.83638
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.8349 range low and ema50 exposes the 0.8346 asia low, then the 0.8340 swing low near the 38.2% fib
An M15 close above the 0.8356 range top reopens the 0.8364 asia high
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~8h) could materially shift this read; London open may break the compression first
05:16 UTC
Sideways after NY rally, momentum neutral · RSI 53 · price 0.83543
Late-Asia compression: lower highs from the asian high, higher lows above the rollover swing low.
Yesterday's 52-pip NY rally from 0.8311 on firm Fed-hike pricing topped at the 0.8364 asian high. Late Asia has compressed between the 0.8349 asian low and a 0.8356 lower high, holding above the 23.6% of the rally fib. Price sits on a flat EMA20 with RSI(14) at 52.6 and ATR(14) at 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.8349, 0.83464
Resistance: 0.8356, 0.83638
What it said to watch
A London-open M15 close below the 0.8349 asian low breaks the higher lows and exposes the 0.8346 swing low, then the 38.2% rally fib near 0.8344
An M15 close above the 0.8356 lower high reopens the 0.8364 asian high
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, with core MoM forecast at 0.3%, could materially shift this read
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) are a second NY-session risk
05:01 UTC
Intraday range, drifting lower off the Asian high · RSI 45 · price 0.83513
Asian range 0.8349–0.8364 with lower highs, holding the range floor.
Thursday's Fed-repricing leg from 0.8311 topped at the 0.8364 session high at the Asia open. Asia has since printed lower highs at 0.8356, with the range floor at the 0.8349 Asian low and the ema50 just above at 0.8351. Price sits below the ema20 at 0.83535 with RSI(14) at 44.9 and ATR at only 3.3 pips. The tape is compressed ahead of London open, and price is sitting at the 23.6% fib of the rally.
Support: 0.8349, 0.83464, 0.8340
Resistance: 0.83535, 0.8356, 0.83638
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8349 asian low breaks the range and exposes the 0.8346 rollover low, then the 0.8340 ny pullback low near the 38.2% fib
Close back above the ema20 and the 0.8356 lower high negates the Asian lower-highs sequence and reopens the 0.8364 session high
London open could break the 3.3-pip ATR compression in either direction
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, then Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Sideways after Asian high, momentum neutral · RSI 49 · price 0.83533
Tight late-Asia range 0.8349–0.8356 under a line of lower highs.
Asia peaked at 0.8364 after Williams' 'still has work to do' remarks kept USD supported, then faded into a tight 0.8349–0.8356 range that is holding around the 61.8% retrace of the rollover-low-to-Asian-high leg. Late in the Asia session, price sits just below ema20 and above ema50 at 0.8351, with RSI 49 neutral and ATR compressed to 3.3 pips under a line of lower highs.
Support: 0.83507, 0.8349, 0.83464
Resistance: 0.8356, 0.83638
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8349 range low exposes the 0.8346 rollover low and breaks the Asian-leg fib
Close above the 0.8356 range top and the lower highs line puts the 0.8364 Asian high back in play
London open from the compressed range, with ATR at 3.3 pips, is the first test of the range low and range top
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read, with Fed's Bowman to follow at 15:50 UTC
Asian range 0.8349–0.8364 after NY higher high; price mid-range near ema20.
After the NY-session rally from 0.8311, Williams' hawkish remarks lifted the pair to an Asian high at 0.8364. Since then it has faded back into a tight Asian range, with the range cap around 0.8356 holding. Demand showed up at the 0.8349 Asian low, and price is now sitting on a flat ema20 with RSI(14) neutral at 52.9 and ATR at 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.83506, 0.8349, 0.83464
Resistance: 0.8356, 0.83638
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.8349 Asian low and the ema50 at 0.8351 exposes the 0.8346 rollover low and the 38.2% retracement near 0.8344
Close above the 0.8356 range cap reopens the 0.8364 Asian high
London open is about 2.5h away and is the first test of the Asian range
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
04:16 UTC
Sideways after NY rally, momentum flat · RSI 52 · price 0.83548
Asian range 0.8349–0.8364, lower highs inside it.
Late in the Asia session, USDCHF is consolidating below the 0.8364 asia high. Williams' 'still has work to do' remarks extended the NY rally from 0.8311 into that high, and price is holding above the 23.6% of the NY rally fib near 0.8351. Asian lower highs are capping near the 0.8356 lower high, while the 0.8349 asia low and the ema50 at 0.8350 hold below. RSI 52 is neutral and ATR 3.5 pips shows compressed ranges.
Support: 0.83505, 0.8349, 0.83464
Resistance: 0.83563, 0.83638
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8356 lower high breaks the Asian lower-high sequence and puts the 0.8364 asia high back in focus
Failure to hold the 0.8349 asia low and ema50 confirms a lower low, exposing the 0.8346 rollover low
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read, with Bowman and Daly speaking later in NY
04:02 UTC
Pullback within NY rally, momentum fading · RSI 40 · price 0.83497
Asia lower highs and lower lows off 0.8364, testing ema50.
Williams' 'still has work to do' remarks lifted the pair to the 0.8364 asia high, but that high was rejected. Asia has since printed a lower high at 0.8356, and price now sits just under the ema50 at 0.8350 with RSI(14) 39.5 and ATR compressed at 3.3 pips. The 0.8361–0.8364 peaks form a double top, unconfirmed while the 0.8346 asia low holds.
Support: 0.83503, 0.83464, 0.8340
Resistance: 0.83537, 0.83563, 0.83638
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8346 asia low confirms the double top and exposes the 0.8340 ny swing low
Reclaiming the ema20 at 0.8354 and the 0.8356 lower high invalidates the Asia lower-high sequence
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) remarks on December hike size
Tight Asia consolidation at 61.8% retrace, holding above Asian low.
After the 0.8311 London low, the NY rally ran to 0.8361. Williams' 'still has work to do' remarks then lifted the pair to the 0.8364 Asian high just after the rollover. Asia has since retraced to the 61.8% fib of the rollover rally near 0.8353, compressing in a 0.8350–0.8356 band below the ema20, with RSI(14) at 45.9 and ATR(14) easing to 3.3 pips.
Support: 0.8350, 0.83464
Resistance: 0.83541, 0.83563, 0.83638
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.8350 asian low, where the ema50 also sits, exposes the 0.8346 swing low
Reclaim of the ema20 and a close above the 0.8356 micro high reopens the 0.8364 asian high
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
Tight Asian range 0.8350–0.8356 below the 0.8364 Asia high.
Williams' hawkish remarks lifted the pair to a 0.8364 Asia high early in the session. The pullback has stalled in a 0.8350–0.8356 range and has so far retraced only about 20% of the NY rally from 0.8311. Price sits just below a flattening EMA20 (0.83543), with the EMA50 (0.83503) underpinning the swing low; RSI(14) is neutral at 50 and ATR is a compressed 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.83501, 0.83464
Resistance: 0.83563, 0.83638
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8356 range top reopens the 0.8364 Asia high
Failure to hold the 0.8350 swing low and EMA50 exposes the 0.8346 rollover low
A break below the rollover low would mark a deeper retracement of the NY rally
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend paused, ranging in Asia · RSI 51 · price 0.83539
Higher low at 0.8346 rollover, Asian range 0.8350–0.8364 with price mid-range.
Williams' hawkish remarks extended the NY rally to an Asia high of 0.8364, just above the 0.8361 NY high, where supply capped the move and price faded to the 0.8350 Asia low, which lines up with ema50. Price is now coiling at 0.8354, just under a flattening ema20, with RSI(14) neutral at 50.6 and ATR(14) compressing to 3.4 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 0.83501, 0.83464, 0.8340
Resistance: 0.83544, 0.83614, 0.83638
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC is the main catalyst for a break of the Asian range
Close above the 0.8364 Asia high, clearing the 0.8361 NY high, resumes the intraday uptrend
Loss of the 0.8350 Asia low and ema50 exposes the 0.8346 rollover low and the 38.2% fib near 0.8344
A break below the 0.8346 rollover low ends the higher-low chain, with the 0.8340 NY pivot next
Higher lows from NY intact; Asian range 0.8350–0.8364 holding.
Williams' late-NY 'still has work to do' remarks lifted the pair to a 0.8364 asia high, but the push faded just above the 0.8361 ny high and retraced to the 0.8350 asia low, where the ema50 sits. Price is now pinned just under the ema20 at 0.8354, with RSI(14) back to neutral 49 and ATR compressed at 3.5 pips. The higher-lows line off the NY session is still intact.
Support: 0.83501, 0.83464
Resistance: 0.83544, 0.83614, 0.83638
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8350 asia low and ema50 breaks the higher-lows chain and exposes the 0.8346 rollover low
Reclaim of the 0.8361 ny high and 0.8364 asia high would reopen the intraday uptrend
Failure to clear the ema20 at 0.8354 keeps price boxed inside the Asian range
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could break the compressed 3.5-pip ATR regime and shift this read
02:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing in Asia · RSI 51 · price 0.83544
Asian range 0.8350–0.8364 after a rejection at the session high.
Williams' hawkish remarks after the NY close lifted the pair from the 0.8346 swing low to an Asian high at 0.8364. That high was rejected, and price is now mid-range just under the ema20 at 0.8355, with the asian low at 0.8350 sitting on the ema50. RSI(14) is neutral at 51 and ATR(14) is a compressed 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.83501, 0.83464
Resistance: 0.83545, 0.83638
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.8350 asian low and ema50 exposes the 0.8346 swing low, then the 38.2% fib of the 0.8311–0.8364 leg near 0.8344
Close back above the ema20 at 0.8355 reopens the 0.8364 asian high; a break there extends the intraday higher-high chain
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Inside the Asian range 0.8346–0.8364; lower highs since the 00:00 UTC peak.
Williams' hawkish remarks lifted USD in early Asia, from the 0.8346 asian low to a 0.8364 asian high. The move met rejection there and has since retraced about 79% to the 0.8350 pullback low. Price now sits just below the ema20 at 0.83545 and above the ema50, with RSI(14) back at 48 and ATR at 3.6 pips, a thin pre-London tape.
Support: 0.83501, 0.83464
Resistance: 0.83545, 0.83638
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the ema20 at 0.83545 puts the 0.8364 asian high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.8350 pullback low exposes the ema50 at 0.83496 and the 0.83464 asian low
US PPI at 13:30 UTC and Bowman at 15:50 UTC could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing after rejection at the high · RSI 47 · price 0.83523
Higher-low chain from 0.8346 intact; pullback after a false break of the NY high.
Asia briefly extended above the NY high at 0.8361, reaching an Asia high of 0.8364 after Williams' hawkish remarks. Price was rejected there and fell back to the 0.8350 Asia low, a roughly 79% retrace of the Asia leg off the 0.8346 rollover low. Price now sits below the ema20 at 0.8355 and just above the ema50 near 0.8350, with RSI at 46.7 and ATR at 3.7 pips in quiet mid-Asia trade.
Support: 0.83501, 0.83464
Resistance: 0.83547, 0.83614, 0.83638
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.8350 Asia low and the ema50 breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 0.8346 rollover low
Reclaiming the ema20 at 0.8355 puts the 0.8361 NY high back in play; a close above the 0.8364 Asia high voids the false-break read
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, then Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
02:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 47 · price 0.83517
Higher lows from the London low at 0.8311; Asian false break above the NY high, now retracing.
Asia session spiked to a 0.8364 session high on Williams' hawkish remarks, briefly clearing the NY high at 0.8361 before a rejection that has retraced about 69% of the Asian rally (fib). Price sits below the ema20 (0.8355) and just above the ema50 (0.8349), with RSI(14) at 46.7 after topping at 68.7 and ATR at 3.8 pips.
Support: 0.83494, 0.83464
Resistance: 0.83549, 0.83638
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the ema50 at 0.8349 and the asian low at 0.8346 would break the higher-low chain from London
A reclaim of the ema20 at 0.8355 puts the 0.8364 session high back in play
London open in about 5h is the next session test of the Asian range
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Intraday pullback inside a NY uptrend · RSI 44 · price 0.83516
Lower highs off 0.8364 Asia high, testing 0.8351 swing low.
Williams' hawkish remarks lifted the pair from the 0.8346 Asian low to a 0.8364 session high, but that print stalled just above the 0.8361 NY high and has since faded through a lower-high chain to the 0.8351 swing low. Price sits below the ema20 and above the ema50, with RSI(14) at 44 off a 69 peak and ATR near 4 pips. Twin highs at 0.8361 and 0.8364 leave a possible double top in development.
Support: 0.83512, 0.83493, 0.83464
Resistance: 0.83552, 0.83614, 0.83638
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8351 swing low exposes the ema50 at 0.8349 and the 0.8346 Asian low, the double-top neckline
Reclaim of the ema20 at 0.8355 and the lower-highs line weakens the rejection read
Close above the 0.8364 session high clears the twin highs
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, then Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back in Asia · RSI 47 · price 0.83527
Higher lows intact; rejection at 0.8364 session high.
Early Asia session rejected the 0.8364 session high, a two-touch top set after Williams' hawkish remarks lifted USD. Price has given back the 61.8% retracement of the 0.8346–0.8364 Asian leg and sits below ema20, above ema50, with RSI(14) down to 47.2 from 62. Late-NY lows at 0.8351 and the 0.8346 Asian low form the higher-low chain from London's 0.8311 base.
Support: 0.83513, 0.83492, 0.83464
Resistance: 0.83556, 0.83638
What it said to watch
M15 close below the rising support and ema50 near 0.8349, then the 0.8346 asian low, breaks the higher-low chain
Close back above ema20 at 0.8356 reopens a retest of the 0.8364 session high
US PPI at 13:30 UTC later today could materially shift this read; ATR(14) at 4 pips sets the current bar size
01:16 UTC
Uptrend, pausing in early Asia · RSI 62 · price 0.83574
Higher-low chain from 0.8311, tight Asian range 0.8355–0.8364.
Rising support from Thursday's 0.8311 London low is intact. Williams' hawkish remarks lifted the pair off the 0.8346 swing low to a 0.8364 Asia high, just above the 0.8361 NY high. Asia is now holding a 0.8355–0.8364 range, with the asia low sitting at the ema20 (0.8356), RSI(14) easing to 62 from 69 and ATR compressed at 3.8 pips.
Support: 0.83555, 0.8349, 0.83464
Resistance: 0.83614, 0.83638
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8355 asia low/ema20 exposes the ema50 at 0.8349 and the 0.8346 swing low
Close above the 0.8364 asia high extends the higher-high chain past the ny high
Break of rising support from 0.8311 would end the higher-low sequence
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, then Bowman at 15:50 UTC, could materially shift this read
01:01 UTC
Uptrend, shallow pullback from session high · RSI 62 · price 0.83581
Higher-low chain since the NY open, early-Asia dip holding above ema20.
Williams' hawkish remarks lifted USD/CHF off the 0.8346 rollover low to a session high at 0.8364 at the Asia open, extending the NY higher-low chain from 0.8322 through the 0.8340 NY pullback low and well clear of the 0.8337–0.8340 four-week high. The early-Asia dip is holding above the ema20 at 0.8356, near the 50% fib of that leg along the rising line, with RSI(14) easing from 68.7 to 61.7 and ATR compressed at 3.7 pips.
Support: 0.83555, 0.83464, 0.8340
Resistance: 0.83614, 0.83638
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8346 rollover low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising line
Failure to hold the ema20 and the 50% fib near 0.8355 would put the 0.8340 NY pullback low back in play
Close above the 0.8361 NY high and 0.8364 session high clears the double cap
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%), then Bowman 15:50 and Daly 17:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows from the 0.8311 London low; early Asia cleared the NY high.
Williams' hawkish remarks late in the NY session lifted the pair off the 0.8346 rollover low to a fresh Asia high at 0.8364, clearing the 0.8361 NY high. Price is holding just under that break, above the ema20 (0.8355) and ema50 (0.8348). RSI(14) has cooled to 62 from 68.7, and ATR has compressed to 3.7 pips from 4.9.
Support: 0.83552, 0.83513, 0.83464
Resistance: 0.83614, 0.83638
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asia high at 0.8364 extends the higher-high chain
M15 close back below the ny high at 0.8361 turns the Asia break into a false break
Failure to hold the ema20 at 0.8355 and the 0.8351 ny low exposes the rollover low at 0.8346 and the rising support line
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%), then Bowman and Daly Fedspeak, could materially shift this read
Asia session rebounded from the 0.8346 Asian low to a fresh session high at 0.8364, clearing the 0.8361 prior high from NY hours as USD stays bid on Fed hike pricing. That extends the 52-pip rally off yesterday's London low, with price above the ema20 at 0.8355. RSI(14) is easing from 68.7 and ATR at 3.5 pips shows compressed ranges.
Support: 0.83614, 0.83548, 0.83464
Resistance: 0.83638
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8361 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8346 Asian low breaks the higher-low chain and the rally trendline
Shallow rally fib retracement toward the ema20 keeps the uptrend structure intact
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain above 0.8340 prior high, fresh session high in early Asia.
The NY session broke above the 0.8340 prior high on firm USD and hawkish Fed repricing. The thin late-day dip held the 0.8346 swing low near the ema50, and the first Asia-session bars printed a new session high at 0.8364. RSI(14) sits at 68.7, short of overbought, and ATR has compressed to 3.6 pips, so this is a steady, narrow-range grind along the rising trendline.
Support: 0.83543, 0.83464, 0.8340
Resistance: 0.83638, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8364 session high extends the HH chain, with the 0.8400 round number the next level above
M15 close below the 0.8354 ema20 turns the grind into a pullback toward the 0.8346 swing low
A break of the 0.8346 swing low and the rising trendline brings the 0.8340 prior high back into play as support
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a soft core print risks a positioning-driven USD unwind
HH/HL chain from 0.8311 London low; retesting day high.
The NY session cleared the Asian high near 0.8336 and ran to 0.8361 as the USD firmed on hot-CPI Fed repricing. The rollover dip held a 0.8346 swing low above the 0.8340 NY pullback, and early Asia is now pressing the 0.8362 day high with price above the ema20 at 0.8354. RSI(14) is 67 and ATR has compressed to 3.5 pips from 5.2.
Support: 0.83536, 0.83464, 0.8340
Resistance: 0.83624, 0.8400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8362 day high extends the HH chain toward the 0.8400 round number
Loss of the 0.8346 swing low breaks rising support and the higher-low sequence; the 0.8340 NY pullback is the next marker
Sustained trade back below the ema20 at 0.8354 would point to a stall at the day high
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a soft print risks a pullback in stretched USD length