Higher low at 0.8346 after NY pullback, retesting session high.
The London-NY rally ran from the 0.8311 London low to a 0.8361 session high on the CPI-driven Fed-hike bid, clearing the 0.8337-0.8340 area. The late pullback held a 0.8346 swing low, about a 30% retracement of that rally, and price has bounced back near the session high in thin post-NY trade around Williams' remarks. Price holds above the ema20 (0.8353) and ema50 (0.8346), RSI(14) 64.6, ATR 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.83529, 0.83464, 0.8340
Resistance: 0.83614
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8361 session high extends the uptrend into fresh highs
Rejection at the session high, followed by a break of the ema20 at 0.8353, puts the 0.8346 swing low back in focus
Failure to hold the 0.8346 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.8340 ny pullback low
Fed's Williams remarks (23:30 UTC) and US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
23:31 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating below NY high · RSI 60 · price 0.83554
Higher lows above ema50 since London low; tight post-NY range.
Firm USD on December Fed-hike bets drove a NY rally from the 0.8311 London low, through the Asian range top near 0.8336, to a 0.8361 NY high. The pullback since held the 0.8346 rollover low, roughly the 23.6–38.2% fib zone and just above ema50 at 0.8346. Price is back above ema20 at 0.8352, RSI(14) 60.2 and ATR(14) compressed to 3.7 pips as the pair coils under the NY high in early Asia.
Support: 0.83523, 0.83464, 0.8340
Resistance: 0.83614
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8361 NY high extends the higher-high chain
Break of the 0.8346 rollover low and ema50 opens the 0.8340 swing low and 38.2% fib
Holding the hl support trendline keeps the higher-low sequence intact
Fed's Williams speaking now (23:30 UTC) could break the compression
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Firm USD in the NY session lifted the pair through the Asian high at 0.8336, and it printed a 0.8361 NY high before drifting into a tight 0.8346–0.8356 band after NY close. RSI(14) has cooled from 70 to 58 and ATR has compressed to 3.8 pips. Price sits just above a flattening ema20 at 0.8352, with the rollover low at 0.8346 the first floor.
Support: 0.8352, 0.83464, 0.8340
Resistance: 0.83614, 0.8382
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read in thin post-NY liquidity
M15 close above the 0.8361 NY high opens 0.8382, the next upside mark
Failure to hold the 0.8346 rollover low exposes the 0.8340 NY pullback low, near the 38.2% retracement of the London low–NY high leg
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the next scheduled driver for the breakout
Higher-high chain from the 0.8311 London low; tight post-NY range below 0.8361.
USD/CHF rallied from the 0.8311 London low to a 0.8361 NY high as Fed-hike repricing kept the dollar firm, clearing both the Asian range top and the 0.8340 prior high. Since then price has compressed in a 0.8346–0.8356 band around a flattening ema20, with ATR(14) easing to 3.7 pips and RSI(14) back to 53.5 from 72; the dip to the 0.8346 rollover low held near the 23.6% of the ny rally fib.
Support: 0.8352, 0.8346, 0.8340
Resistance: 0.8356, 0.8361
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (~28 min) could break the thin 0.8356 range cap or the 0.8346 rollover low
M15 close above the 0.8361 ny high extends the higher-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.8346 rollover low exposes the 0.8340 prior high and the 38.2% of the ny rally fib near 0.8342
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst for Fed pricing
Lower highs off 0.8361 day high; early Asia below ema20, above ema50.
USDCHF ran from the 0.8311 London low to a 0.8361 day high in NY, clearing the 0.8340 four-week high on the hot-CPI Fed repricing. It has since printed lower highs as RSI(14) cooled from 73 to 48. Early Asia has slipped through the 0.8351 late-NY range floor to a 0.8347 session low, near the 23.6% fib of the London low–day high move, under the ema20 at 0.8352 and above the ema50 at 0.8345. ATR has compressed to 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.83473, 0.83446, 0.8340
Resistance: 0.83518, 0.83565, 0.83614
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (~44 min) could materially shift this read; any 50bp December endorsement or pushback is the trigger
M15 close back above the 0.8352 ema20 and the 0.8357 range high breaks the lower-highs line
Failure to hold the 0.8347 session low and the 0.8345 ema50 exposes the 0.8340 swing low and the 38.2% fib near 0.8342
Day high at 0.8361 remains the cap on the NY-session leg; US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the next scheduled driver
Tight late-NY consolidation under 0.8361 session high, lower highs forming.
Post-claims NY rally broke the 0.8317–0.8336 Asian range high and ran to a 0.8361 session high, extending the USD bid on Fed hike repricing; since then price has drifted in a 0.8350–0.8356 band with lower highs, sitting on the 0.8350 late low and the 23.6% fib. RSI(14) cooled from 74 to 53 and ATR(14) has compressed to 3.4 pips, with price just below the ema20 at 0.8352 and above the ema50 at 0.8344.
Support: 0.83497, 0.83444, 0.8340
Resistance: 0.8352, 0.83565, 0.83614
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (~1h) could break the quiet late-NY range
M15 close below the 0.8350 late low exposes the ema50 at 0.8344 and the 0.8340 pullback low
Close back above the 0.8356 lower highs reopens the 0.8361 session high
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the next major driver for the USD leg
Post-NY consolidation 0.8351–0.8356 below the 0.8361 session high.
London swept below the Asian range low to 0.8311. The NY session then ran 50 pips to a 0.8361 session high as USD stayed bid on Fed-hike repricing. Since the NY close the pair has compressed in a 0.8351–0.8356 range, sitting just under the ema20 and above the ema50, with RSI(14) cooled from 74 to 53 and ATR down to 3.5 pips.
Support: 0.83513, 0.83441, 0.8340
Resistance: 0.8352, 0.83564, 0.83614
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8351 range low exposes the ema50 at 0.8344 and the 38.2% fib of the London-NY rally near 0.8342
Loss of the 0.8340 ny pullback low would break the intraday higher-low chain
Close above the 0.8356 range top brings the 0.8361 session high back into play
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could break the current compression
Tight post-high range 0.8351–0.8356 under 0.8361 session high.
The NY session cleared the Asian range top near 0.8336 on firm USD and carried the 0.8311–0.8361 leg to a 0.8361 session high. Since then the pair has held a 0.8351–0.8356 range low/range top box in late NY, just above the EMA(20) at 0.8352. RSI(14) has eased from 74 to 56.9, and ATR(14) has compressed from 6.4 to 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.8351, 0.8340
Resistance: 0.8356, 0.8361
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8351 range low exposes the 0.8340 NY swing low, near the 38.2% of the 0.8311–0.8361 leg
An M15 close above the 0.8356 range top and the 0.8361 session high resumes the NY uptrend
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (~88 min) could break the compression either way
ATR at 3.6 pips points to thin after-hours trade until Asia session flow arrives
The NY session breakout through the Asian range high near 0.8336 ran to a 0.8361 session high as USD stayed firm on Fed-hike repricing. Late NY has since compressed into a 0.8351–0.8360 band with lower highs. RSI(14) has cooled from 74 to 60 and ATR has shrunk to 3.7 pips, while price holds just above the ema20 at 0.8352.
Support: 0.8352, 0.83513, 0.8340
Resistance: 0.83564, 0.83614
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8351 swing low breaks the consolidation floor and exposes the 0.8340 pullback low
Close above the 0.8356 lower high and the 0.8361 session high resumes the NY uptrend
Fed's Williams speaks at 23:30 UTC (~1h45m); hawkish comments could break the compression
NY breakout above Asian high, now consolidating below session high.
Dollar demand on Fed-hike repricing lifted the pair off the 0.8311 London low through the 0.8336 Asian high during NY hours, printing a 0.8361 session high. The pair is now holding a tight 0.8351–0.8361 range after NY close, with the range low sitting at the ema20 (0.8352). RSI(14) has cooled from 74 to 62 and ATR(14) has compressed from 6.6 to 3.9 pips.
Support: 0.83513, 0.8340, 0.83363
Resistance: 0.83614
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8361 session high extends the NY leg
M15 close below the 0.8351 range low and ema20 exposes the 0.8340 swing low, near the 38.2% fib of the NY rally
Loss of 0.8340 puts the breakout above the 0.8336 Asian high up for retest
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could reprice December hike odds and shift this read
NY breakout above Asian high, tight post-close consolidation.
After a London low at 0.8311, the NY session broke the Asian high at 0.8336 and ran to a 0.8361 session high as USD stayed bid on Fed-hike repricing, well past the 0.8310–0.8315 correction the digest flagged. Since NY close price has held a 0.8351–0.8356 band on the ema20. RSI(14) has cooled from 74 to 59 and ATR has compressed to 3.9 pips.
Support: 0.83513, 0.8340, 0.83363
Resistance: 0.83563, 0.83614
What it said to watch
M15 close below the ema20 at 0.8351 exposes the 0.8340 ny pullback low, then the 0.8336 Asian high
Close above the 0.8356 band top and the 0.8361 session high extends the higher-high chain
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could break the compression; any 50bp endorsement or pushback shifts this read
NY hours carried USD/CHF from 0.8322 through the 0.8340 four-week high to a 0.8361 session high as the hawkish-Fed repricing kept the dollar bid. Since the 18:00 UTC peak, price has drifted into a tight post-NY range sitting on the ema20 at 0.8351, just under the 0.8354 prior high. RSI(14) has cooled from 74 to 57.6 and ATR(14) has compressed to 4.1 pips.
Support: 0.83511, 0.8340, 0.83114
Resistance: 0.8354, 0.83614
What it said to watch
M15 close below the ema20 at 0.8351 exposes the 0.8340 swing low, near the 50% fib of the NY rally
Failure to hold 0.8340 brings the 0.8311 london low back into view
Close above the 0.8354 prior high reopens a test of the 0.8361 session high
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read in thin post-NY trade
NY rally from 0.8322 to 0.8361, now tight consolidation above ema20.
London swept to a 0.8311 day low before the NY rally cleared the 0.8336 asian high and peaked at 0.8361. Hawkish Fed repricing kept the dollar firm, and the soft claims print did not dent it. Late NY is compressing between the ema20 at 0.8351 and a 0.8356 range top, with RSI(14) cooled from 74 to 59 and ATR down to 4.3 pips.
Support: 0.8351, 0.8340, 0.8336
Resistance: 0.8356, 0.8361
What it said to watch
Close below the ema20 at 0.8351 exposes the 0.8340 swing low, the NY rally pullback low
M15 close above the 0.8361 session high extends the NY rally
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (~2.5h) could shift the read on any 50bp hike signal
Loss of the 0.8336 asian high would unwind most of the NY breakout
NY breakout above prior high, late-session pullback toward ema20.
The NY session cleared the 0.8336 prior high and the Asian/London range on the hawkish-Fed dollar bid, topping at a 0.8361 day high. Since then price has printed lower highs and slipped back onto ema20 at 0.8351, with RSI(14) cooling from 74 to 57 and ATR compressing to 4.4 pips into the NY close; rising lows from the 0.8340 swing low remain intact.
Support: 0.83507, 0.8340, 0.83363
Resistance: 0.83563, 0.83614
What it said to watch
M15 close below ema20 at 0.8351 breaks the rising-lows trendline and exposes the 0.8340 swing low (ema50 0.8341 and the NY rally fib 50% near 0.8342)
Failure to hold 0.8340 puts the 0.8336 prior high in play as a retest of the breakout
Close above the 0.8356 lower high, then the 0.8361 day high, resumes the NY uptrend
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
NY breakout to a 0.8361 session high, now lower highs into ema20.
The London dip held 0.8311 before NY broke through 0.8340 on a firm USD and printed a session high at 0.8361. Late NY has since stalled into lower highs near 0.8356, and price is resting just above the ema20 at 0.8351. RSI(14) has cooled from 76 to 56.8 and ATR has compressed to 4.6 pips.
Support: 0.83506, 0.8340
Resistance: 0.83563, 0.83614
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the ema20 at 0.8351 exposes the 0.8340 swing low, where the ema50 (0.8341) also sits
Failure to hold the 0.8340 swing low would undo the NY breakout and break the HH/HL chain on the London-NY fib leg
A close above the 0.8356 lower high reopens the 0.8361 session high
Fed's Williams speaks in about 3h; any 50bp signal or pushback could materially shift this read
20:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling · RSI 59 · price 0.8353
NY breakout above 0.8340, tight consolidation below the 0.8361 NY high.
From the London low at 0.8311, the NY session rallied 50 pips to a 0.8361 NY high and cleared the 0.8337-0.8340 four-week-high breakout zone, as the USD bid held on Fed hike pricing after jobless claims. Late NY is holding a 0.8352-0.8361 band just above the ema20 at 0.83505, with highs slightly lower, RSI(14) cooled from 76 to 59 and ATR(14) compressing to 4.9 pips.
Support: 0.83517, 0.83505, 0.8340
Resistance: 0.83614, 0.8382
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8352 pullback low exposes the ema20 and the 0.8340 breakout zone, near the 38.2% of the NY rally fib at 0.8342
Close above the 0.8361 NY high resumes the HH chain toward the 0.8382 upside mark
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read; any 50bp openness or pushback moves USD pricing
19:46 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling · RSI 65 · price 0.8356
HH/HL chain from the London low; tight consolidation under the session high.
Hawkish Fed tone carried the pair from the 0.8311 London low through the Asian range high at 0.8336 and the 0.8337-0.8340 prior high during NY hours, topping at the 0.8361 session high. Since 16:00 UTC price has held a 0.8352-0.8361 band above the ema20 at 0.8350. RSI(14) has cooled to 65.4 from 75.9 with a mild bearish divergence, and ATR has compressed to 5 pips.
Support: 0.8352, 0.8350, 0.8340
Resistance: 0.8361, 0.8382
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8352 swing low and the rising trendline would break the HL chain and expose ema20 at 0.8350
Loss of 0.8340 prior high, the 38.2% of the London-NY rally, turns the breakout into a false break
Close above the 0.8361 session high puts the next marked level at 0.8382 in view
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since London low, late-NY pause under session high.
USD/CHF turned from the 0.8311 London low and cleared the Asian range high near 0.8336 after US claims. It then pushed through the 0.8340 4-wk high to a 0.8361 session high, with hawkish Fedspeak keeping USD bid. Late NY is holding 0.8352–0.8361 above the ema20, with RSI(14) at 64 off a 76 peak (mild bearish divergence at the high), ATR easing to 5.2 pips and price leaning on the rally trendline.
Support: 0.83517, 0.83496, 0.8340
Resistance: 0.83614, 0.8382
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8352 late low breaks the rally trendline and exposes the ema20 at 0.8350
Failure to hold 0.8340 (prior 4-wk high) hands back the NY breakout
Close above the 0.8361 session high resumes the HH chain toward 0.8382, the next marker
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
NY higher-high/higher-low chain, late-session stall under 0.8361.
The NY rally broke the Asian range high at 0.8336 and the 0.8337–0.8340 four-week high on the hawkish-Fed dollar bid. It printed a session high at 0.8361 off a higher-low chain from 0.8322 and the 0.8340 swing low. Late NY, price has stalled in a 5-pip band and is testing the 0.8354 prior high, with RSI(14) cooled to 66 from 76 and ATR compressing to 5.2 pips.
Support: 0.8354, 0.83491, 0.8340
Resistance: 0.83614
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8354 prior high and the ema20 at 0.8349 opens the 38.2% fib of the NY rally near 0.8346
Failure to hold the 0.8340 swing low breaks the NY higher-low chain
M15 close above the 0.8361 session high resumes the higher-high sequence
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read if he endorses 50bp; US PPI follows Fri 13:30 UTC
Higher lows since London, tight consolidation under 0.8361 session high.
NY broke the 0.8337–0.8340 four-week high after claims, on the hawkish Fed repricing that followed the CPI beat. The move built rising lows from London's 0.8311 low to a 0.8361 session high. Price is now holding a 0.8356–0.8361 consolidation above the ema20 at 0.8348, with RSI(14) cooling from 74 to 68 and ATR compressing to 5.3 pips; the fib 38.2% of the leg sits near the 0.8340 breakout level.
Support: 0.83564, 0.83483, 0.8340
Resistance: 0.83614, 0.8382
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8361 session high resumes the higher-high chain; firmer Fed pricing brings the 0.8382 marked level into view
M15 close below the 0.8356 consol low exposes the ema20 at 0.8348 and the rising lows line
Failure to hold the 0.8340 breakout level negates the breakout read
Schmid and the Budget Statement at 19:00 UTC, then Williams at 23:30 UTC, could shift this read
NY higher-high/higher-low chain from 0.8311; stalling under session high.
NY broke above the Asian range high and the 0.8337-0.8340 four-week high, carried by the firm USD on hawkish Fed repricing. Price then held a 0.8340 higher low on the rally trendline and printed a 0.8361 session high. Late in NY, price is stalling just under that high: RSI(14) at 70.6 sits below its earlier 75.9 peak, a mild bearish divergence, and ATR(14) has eased to 5.5 pips.
Support: 0.8356, 0.83475, 0.8340
Resistance: 0.83614, 0.8382
What it said to watch
Close back below the 0.8356 intraday low exposes the ema20 at 0.8348
Loss of the 0.8340 higher low, near the 38.2% of the NY rally fib, breaks the rally trendline and the higher-low chain
Clean break of the 0.8361 session high puts the 0.8382 next level in view
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could shift December hike pricing and this read
Higher highs and higher lows since London low; prior high broken.
London swept the Asian range low to 0.8311, then a 50-pip NY rally on the hawkish Fed repricing broke the 0.8336 prior high and printed a 0.8361 session high after London close. RSI(14) made a lower high at 74.4 against 75.9 earlier while price made a higher high, a mild bearish divergence; it now reads 69.7 with ATR(14) at 5.8 pips.
Support: 0.83463, 0.8340, 0.83363
Resistance: 0.83614, 0.8382
What it said to watch
Close back below the 0.8346 ema20 and the 0.8340 swing low breaks the NY higher-low chain
Loss of the 0.8336 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Clean push through the 0.8361 session high opens the 0.8382 marked level
Fed's Schmid now, Budget Statement in 30m and Williams at 23:30 UTC could shift this read
NY higher-low chain above broken Asian high; late NY session.
NY reversed London's dip under the Asian low to 0.8311. It broke the 0.8336 Asian high and four-week-high zone, then printed a session high at 0.8361 as hawkish Fed repricing after the CPI beat kept the dollar bid. RSI(14) at 72 made a lower peak than the 75.9 seen at the 0.8354 prior high, and ATR is easing to 6 pips, so momentum is thinning while the higher lows hold above the ema20.
Support: 0.8354, 0.83452, 0.8340
Resistance: 0.83614
What it said to watch
Fed's Schmid at 18:30 UTC and Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 0.8354 prior high and the NY higher-lows trendline signals the advance stalling
Failure to hold the 0.8340 swing low puts the fib 50% of the London low–NY high leg near 0.8336 in play
Acceptance above the 0.8361 session high extends the breakout and leaves the bearish RSI divergence unconfirmed
18:01 UTC
Uptrend, overbought into late NY · RSI 73 · price 0.83588
Higher lows from the London low; Asian range high broken.
NY took out the Asian range high at 0.8336 and the 0.8337-0.8340 four-week high on Fed-repricing USD demand, running from the London low at 0.8311 to a 0.8361 session high along the NY rising tl. RSI(14) at 73.2 is overbought but not extreme and ATR is 6.1 pips. The prior high at 0.8354 and ema20 at 0.8344 are the first supports.
Support: 0.8354, 0.83438, 0.8340
Resistance: 0.83609, 0.8382
What it said to watch
Fed's Daly in 8 minutes and Schmid in 28 minutes could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.8361 session high opens 0.8382, the next upside mark
Failure to hold the 0.8340 swing low breaks the NY rising tl and the higher-low chain
Retracement into the 38.2% of the NY rally fib near 0.8342 overlaps the ema20 zone
NY breakout above Asian range high, higher lows into fresh session high.
The NY rally cleared the Asian range high and the 0.8337–0.8340 four-week high after the 13:30 UTC jobless claims. The bid comes as USD stays firm on post-CPI Fed-hike repricing. A mid-NY retest of 0.8340 held as the retest low, and price has since printed a fresh session high at 0.8360, with RSI(14) at 74.4 overbought but not extreme and ATR at 6.4 pips.
Support: 0.8354, 0.8340, 0.83333
Resistance: 0.83603, 0.8382
What it said to watch
Fed's Daly (18:10 UTC) and Schmid (18:30 UTC), then Williams at 23:30, could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 0.8354 prior high puts the 0.8340 retest low and rising support back in focus
M15 close below the 0.8340 retest low breaks the NY higher-low chain; ema50 at 0.8333 sits below
Clearance of the 0.8360 session high opens the path to the 0.8382 marked level
NY breakout above Asian range high, now consolidating 0.8340–0.8354.
With USD firm on Fed-hike repricing, the NY session lifted the pair from the 0.8311 London low through the 0.8336 Asian high and the 0.8337–0.8340 four-week high to a 0.8354 session high. RSI(14) has cooled from 75.9 to 66.1. The 0.8340 dip low held above the 38.2% fib, with price consolidating above the ema20 at 0.8338 and ATR(14) expanded to 6.5 pips.
Support: 0.8340, 0.83379, 0.83363
Resistance: 0.8350, 0.8354
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8354 session high resumes the breakout leg; the 0.8350 psych level caps it first
M15 close below the 0.8340 dip low exposes the ema20 and the 0.8336 Asian high, which is the breakout retest zone
Fed's Daly (18:10 UTC) and Schmid (18:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; Williams speaks later at 23:30 UTC
A break of the rising support from the 0.8311 low would flag a deeper retracement of the NY leg
16:46 UTC
Uptrend, NY breakout holding · RSI 67 · price 0.83484
Higher lows from London low; breakout above Asian high retested.
London dipped to the london low at 0.8311, testing the 0.8310–0.8315 former-highs support, and held. NY then broke the 0.8336 Asian high and the 0.8337–0.8340 four-week high on firm-USD Fed-hike pricing, printing a ny high at 0.8354. The 16:30 UTC retest low at 0.8340 held during Goolsbee's remarks, above the 38.2% fib and the rising ema20 at 0.8337. RSI(14) is 67.2, cooled from 75.9, and ATR(14) has expanded to 6.6 pips.
Support: 0.8340, 0.83368, 0.83114
Resistance: 0.8354, 0.8382
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.8340 retest low and the ema20 near 0.8337 puts the price back inside the prior range and undercuts the breakout read
An M15 close above the 0.8354 ny high extends the uptrend toward the 0.8382 next marked level
A break of the higher-lows trendline from the london low would end the intraday higher-low chain
Fed's Daly (18:10 UTC) and Schmid (18:30 UTC) could shift December hike pricing and this read
16:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, first pullback from the session high · RSI 66 · price 0.83494
Higher lows from the London low at 0.8311; NY broke the Asian range high and the prior high near 0.8337.
NY session lifted USDCHF from the 0.8311 London low through the Asian range high and the 0.8337 prior high, the four-week top, to a 0.8354 session high as firm Fed-hike pricing held the dollar bid. RSI(14) cooled from 75.9 to 65.7 on the pullback to 0.8343, and price is now pressing the 0.8350 psych level. ATR(14) has expanded to 6.3 pips with price above a rising ema20 at 0.83355.
Support: 0.83426, 0.8337, 0.83355
Resistance: 0.8350, 0.8354
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8337 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break
Hold of the 0.8343 pullback low keeps the higher-low chain intact; a close above the 0.8354 session high extends the NY rally
A break of the rally trendline from the London low would put the ema20 near 0.8336 in play
Goolsbee speaking now, with Daly in ~99 min and Schmid in ~2h, could materially shift this read
16:16 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 63 · price 0.83449
NY breakout above Asian range, higher lows since London low.
NY hours broke the Asian range high near 0.8336 and the 0.8340 prior high on firm USD and Fed-hike repricing, printing a 0.8354 session high as ATR(14) expanded to 6.4 pips. RSI(14) has cooled from 75.9 to 62.8, and price is now retesting the 0.8340 prior high with the ema20 at 0.83343 just below.
Support: 0.8340, 0.83343, 0.83114
Resistance: 0.8354, 0.8382
What it said to watch
Fed's Goolsbee speaks in ~14 min and could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the ema20 at 0.83343 puts price back inside the Asian range and negates the breakout
Close above the 0.8354 session high extends the higher-high chain toward 0.8382, the next level
A break of the rising lows line would expose the London low at 0.83114
16:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling off the high · RSI 68 · price 0.83467
NY breakout above Asian high, higher lows from London low.
NY hours extended the climb from the 0.8311 London low through the 0.8336-0.8337 Asian high and four-week high, tagging a 0.8354 session high on firm Fed-hike pricing. The last closed bar settled back below the 0.8350 round number, RSI(14) easing from 75.9 to 67.7 while ATR expands to 6.3 pips. Price still holds above the 0.8333 ema20 and the rising trendline.
Support: 0.8337, 0.83334, 0.8311
Resistance: 0.8350, 0.8354
What it said to watch
Fed's Goolsbee at 16:30 UTC, with Daly and Schmid later, could materially shift this read
An M15 close back below the 0.8337 Asian high turns the breakout into a false break
A close above the 0.8354 session high extends the higher-high chain; holding below the 0.8350 round number keeps the pullback in play
A break of the rising trendline and the ema20 at 0.8333 exposes the 0.8311 London low
15:46 UTC
Uptrend, overbought into NY highs · RSI 76 · price 0.83509
Higher-low chain from London low, breakout above prior high.
In the first hours of NY, price cleared the Asian range high and yesterday's 0.8337 prior high. It extended a higher-low chain from the 0.8311 London low to a 0.8354 session high, with USD firm on hawkish Fed repricing. RSI(14) is overbought at 75.9 and ATR has expanded from 4.0 to 6.2 pips.
Support: 0.8337, 0.8332, 0.8322
Resistance: 0.8354, 0.8382
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8337 prior high puts the breakout in question, with ema20 at 0.8332 next below
M15 close below the 0.8322 higher low breaks the higher-low line and the uptrend read
Close above the 0.8354 session high opens the path to the 0.8382 upside mark
Goolsbee at 16:30 UTC, then Daly and Schmid, could materially shift this read
15:31 UTC
Uptrend, overbought after NY breakout · RSI 74 · price 0.83464
Higher lows off London low, broke Asian range and prior high.
Through the NY session USDCHF cleared the Asian range high near 0.8336 and the 0.8337-0.8340 four-week prior high, tagging a 0.8352 session high as the dollar holds its hot-CPI bid. RSI(14) is 74 and ATR is up to 6.1 pips. The current bar is pausing just under the session high, and the prior high zone lines up with the 38.2% retrace of the London low-to-session high leg.
Support: 0.8338, 0.83299, 0.83114
Resistance: 0.83524
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8338 prior high would make the breakout a false break and bring ema20 at 0.8330 into play
A close above the 0.8352 session high would extend the higher-low chain off the London low
A break of the London low trendline would undo the NY higher-low structure, with the 0.8311 london low below
Goolsbee speaks at 16:30 UTC (~1h), with Daly and Schmid after; these could materially shift this read
15:16 UTC
Uptrend, momentum building · RSI 70 · price 0.83438
Higher lows from 0.8311, NY range break above prior high.
London swept below the Asian range to a 0.8311 session low before reversing. NY has since broken above the Asian high and yesterday's 0.8337 prior high to a 0.8344 session high, off a higher low at the 0.8322 swing low, as USD stays firm on hawkish Fed repricing. RSI(14) is 69.6, just shy of overbought, ATR has expanded to 5.8 pips and price holds above a rising ema20 at 0.8328.
Support: 0.83374, 0.8328, 0.83219
Resistance: 0.83443, 0.8350
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8337 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8322 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Round number 0.8350 is the next area to watch for rejection or extension above the session high
Goolsbee speaks in ~74 min, with Daly and Schmid later in the NY session; Fedspeak could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the London low; Asian range high broken in NY.
USDCHF climbed from the 0.8311 London low and broke through the 0.8336 Asian high in the NY session, printing a session high at 0.8341. It rose even though jobless claims came in a touch soft at 200K. RSI(14) is 68.4, below overbought, and ATR has expanded to 5.8 pips, with price above the rising ema20 at 0.8327.
Support: 0.8336, 0.83265, 0.83219
Resistance: 0.83407, 0.8350
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8336 Asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
A break of the 0.8322 NY low would also breach the rising trendline from the London low
Acceptance above the 0.8341 session high exposes the 0.8350 psych level
Fed's Barr now and Goolsbee in ~90 min could shift December hike pricing and this read
14:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London low · RSI 63 · price 0.83334
Rising lows from 0.8311, pressing Asian high / prior high.
London sold the pair to a 0.8311 London low before NY rebuilt it on a firm USD tone, printing a higher low near 0.8322 and running back to retest the 0.8336 Asian high, just under the 0.8337 prior high. EMA20 has crossed above EMA50 with price above both, RSI(14) at 62.8 and ATR expanding to 5.7 pips.
Support: 0.83251, 0.8322, 0.83114
Resistance: 0.83363, 0.83374
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8337 prior high clears the Asian high cap and the four-week high zone
Loss of the 0.8322 higher low breaks the rising-lows sequence and exposes the ema20 failure back toward the London low
Fed's Barr and Existing Home Sales in 14 min, then Goolsbee at 16:30 UTC, could shift the read
Higher lows from London low, capped at 0.8333 NY high.
London swept the Asian low at 0.8317 down to 0.8311, then NY recovered on the firm dollar. The mixed claims print barely registered. The rebound has stalled twice at the 0.8333 NY high, while the 0.8322 higher low held at the 50% retrace of the London-NY leg, with price above the ema20 (0.8324), RSI 53 and ATR expanding to 5.3 pips.
Support: 0.83242, 0.83219, 0.83114
Resistance: 0.83332, 0.83363
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8333 NY high opens the 0.8336 Asia high
Break below the 0.8322 higher low ends the rising-lows chain and exposes the 0.8311 London low
Fed's Barr and Existing Home Sales in 29 min, with Goolsbee and Daly later in NY hours, could shift this read
V-recovery from the London low, lower high vs prior high.
London sold through the Asian range to a 0.8311 london low before NY recovered the leg and reclaimed EMA20/50. Supply capped the 0.8333 ny high twice around the jobless-claims release, and price is holding just above the ema20 at 0.8324 with RSI(14) at 57. The ny high remains a lower high against yesterday's 0.8337 prior high.
Support: 0.8324, 0.83114
Resistance: 0.83332, 0.83374
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8333 ny high opens a retest of the 0.8337 prior high
Failure to hold the ema20 at 0.8324 and the EMA50 just below exposes the 50% of the london-ny leg and then the 0.8311 london low
Fed's Barr and Existing Home Sales in ~44 min, then Goolsbee, could materially shift this read
ATR at 5.2 pips and rising from 4.0 points to widening ranges into NY Fedspeak
14:02 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows off the London low · RSI 57 · price 0.83283
Asian low swept, rebound capped below the session high.
London swept the Asian low at 0.8317 down to 0.8311, then rebounded in a higher-low sequence, and the slightly soft 200K jobless claims at 13:30 UTC did little to dent the move. The 0.8333 session high is capping the move. Price holds above the ema20 at 0.83235, which has just crossed above the ema50; RSI sits at 57 off a 32 trough, and ATR has expanded to 5 pips.
Support: 0.83235, 0.8317, 0.83114
Resistance: 0.83332, 0.83363
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8333 session high opens the 0.8336 Asian high
Loss of the ema20 and the rising trendline near 0.8322 breaks the higher-low chain toward the 0.8317 Asian low
A move back under the 0.8311 London low negates the sweep-and-recover read
Fed's Hammack (now) and Barr plus Existing Home Sales at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
13:46 UTC
Recovering from London low, higher lows into NY · RSI 56 · price 0.83289
Higher-low chain since 0.8311, capped at 0.8333 NY high.
London's break below the Asian low at 0.8317 stalled at 0.8311 and reversed, building higher lows back into the Asian range with ema20 now just above ema50. The early-NY spike to 0.8333 was faded, and the in-line 200K jobless claims print brought a modest bounce off the ema20 near 0.8323; ATR(14) has expanded to 5 pips.
Support: 0.8323, 0.8317, 0.8311
Resistance: 0.8333, 0.8336
What it said to watch
Fed's Hammack speaks in ~14 min, with Barr and Goolsbee later in NY hours, and could shift the read
M15 close above the 0.8333 NY high and 0.8336 Asian high breaks the Asian range to the upside
Close below the ema20 at 0.8323 and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain
Loss of the 0.8311 London low turns the false break into a fresh lower low
Higher lows off london low, capped below asian high.
London's dip below the asian low to 0.8311 failed. Price has since built higher lows along the rising trendline and is back above the flat ema20/50 at 0.8323. The 13:00 push to a 0.8333 session high was rejected short of the 0.8336 asian high, leaving price near the 38.2% fib of the recovery, with RSI(14) easing from 63 to 52.
Support: 0.83226, 0.8317, 0.83114
Resistance: 0.83332, 0.83363, 0.83374
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims (f/c 195K) print on this bar; ATR at 5 pips may expand sharply
Fed's Hammack at 14:00 UTC, with Barr at 15:00 UTC, could reprice the USD leg
M15 close above the 0.8336 asian high puts the 0.8337 prior high in play
Break of the rising trendline and the ema20/50 at 0.8323 exposes the 0.8317 asian low
Loss of the 0.8311 london low negates the higher-low sequence
13:16 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows off London low · RSI 63 · price 0.83302
False break below Asian range, back near range top.
London broke the Asian range low at 0.8317 and printed a london low at 0.8311 before reversing. The London-NY transition lifted price back above both EMAs to a 0.8333 session high, with a higher low at 0.8323 just above the ema20 (0.8322) and RSI(14) at 63. The asian high at 0.8336 and the 24h prior high at 0.8337 cap the range top ahead of jobless claims.
Support: 0.83231, 0.83224, 0.83114
Resistance: 0.83332, 0.83363, 0.83374
What it said to watch
Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) could materially shift this read; ATR(14) has expanded to 4.8 pips from 4.0
M15 close above the 0.8337 prior high breaks the 24h range top
Rejection at the 0.8333 session high or 0.8336 asian high keeps price inside the range
Failure to hold the 0.8323 higher low and ema20 near 0.8322 breaks the rising support line and reopens the 0.8311 london low
Fed's Hammack (14:00 UTC) and Barr (15:00 UTC) add headline risk through NY hours
13:01 UTC
Intraday range, rebounding off London low · RSI 54 · price 0.83252
Higher low off 0.8311, capped below 0.8330.
USD/CHF rebounded from the London low at 0.8311 to a session high near 0.8330 into the London-NY transition. Rejection there cooled RSI(14) to 54 from 61 as the post-CPI USD rally pauses. Price holds just above the ema50 at 0.8322, inside the Asian high-to-London low range (0.8336–0.8311), with ATR(14) at 4.3 pips.
Support: 0.83222, 0.83114
Resistance: 0.83295, 0.83363
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 GMT and Fedspeak from 14:00 GMT could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.8330 session high reopens the 0.8336 Asian high
Loss of the ema50 at 0.8322 and the 38.2% fib exposes the 0.8311 London low
Break below the rising support from the London low turns the rebound into a lower-high sequence
12:46 UTC
Intraday rebound after London selloff · RSI 61 · price 0.83255
Higher-low chain off the 0.83114 London low, capped at 0.83295.
London sold off from 0.8333 to a 0.83114 low as the USD rally cooled. The rebound since then has printed a higher-low chain and retraced most of the London selloff, but met a first rejection at the 0.83295 rebound high ahead of the NY open. Price sits above both EMAs with the ema50 at 0.83222, RSI(14) has recovered from 32 to 61.3 and ATR(14) is 4.3 pips.
Support: 0.83222, 0.83114
Resistance: 0.83295, 0.83363
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 GMT (f/c 195K), then Fed speakers from 14:00 GMT, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.83295 rebound high exposes the 0.83363 Asia high
M15 close back below the ema50 at 0.83222 breaks the rebound line and brings the 0.83114 London low back into focus
12:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows off London low · RSI 58 · price 0.83255
False break of Asian low, back inside Asian range.
London pushed through the Asian low at 0.8317 to a London low at 0.8311, then reversed. A higher-low chain along the London trend has lifted price back above ema20 and ema50, retracing about 62% of the London drop from the London open high at 0.8333, as the dollar trims post-CPI gains in Europe. RSI(14) has recovered to 58 from 32, and ATR(14) is compressed at 4.3 pips ahead of US claims.
Support: 0.83219, 0.8317, 0.83114
Resistance: 0.8333, 0.83363
What it said to watch
US Initial Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K), then Hammack at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read in the first hour of NY
M15 close above the London open high at 0.8333 opens a retest of the Asian high at 0.8336
A break of the London trend and an M15 close back below ema50 at 0.8322 puts the Asian low at 0.8317 back in focus
Failure to hold the London low at 0.8311 negates the false break and breaks the 0.8310-0.8315 support zone
London lower highs and lows below the Asia range; recovery from 0.8311 now testing ema50.
London broke the Asia low at 0.8317 and set a session low at 0.8311 as the dollar trimmed its post-CPI gains, briefly piercing the 0.8310–0.8315 support. Price has since recovered to the 50% fib and ema50 at 0.8322, with RSI(14) back to 51 from 32 and ATR at 4.1 pips; the flattening ema20 at 0.8320 sits just below.
Support: 0.83202, 0.8317, 0.83114
Resistance: 0.83218, 0.8333, 0.83363
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8322 (ema50 and 50% fib) opens the london high at 0.8333, then the asia high at 0.8336
Rejection at 0.8322 and a close below ema20 at 0.8320 put the asia low at 0.8317 back in play
Failure to hold the 0.8311 session low confirms a lower low beneath the 0.8310–0.8315 support
US Initial Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since London open; Asian low broken, then reclaimed.
London broke below the Asian low at 0.8317 into a 0.8311 london low as the dollar eased from its post-CPI highs. The bounce has reclaimed 0.8317 but is stalling near the 38.2% level of the london decline fib, at ema20 and just under ema50 at 0.8322. RSI(14) has recovered to 48 from 32, and ATR(14) is compressing to 4 pips late in the London session.
Support: 0.8317, 0.83114
Resistance: 0.83218, 0.8333, 0.83374
What it said to watch
M15 close above ema50 at 0.8322 and the 38.2% fib would open the London-open london high at 0.8333
Acceptance back below the asian low at 0.8317 shifts focus to the 0.8311 london low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
0.8337 4-week high caps the upside from yesterday's NY session
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC, followed by Hammack at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
London lower highs after Asian range break; retesting broken Asian low from below.
London broke the asian low at 0.8317 and printed a session low at 0.8311. Demand stepped in there, inside the 0.8310–0.8315 prior-highs zone left by the post-CPI USD rally, and RSI(14) has recovered from 32 to 48. Price is back at ema20 retesting the broken Asian range from below near the 38.2% of the London drop, with ema50 at 0.8322 and the 0.8323 lower high overhead.
Support: 0.8317, 0.83114
Resistance: 0.83219, 0.8323, 0.83363
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8323 lower high breaks the London lower-high sequence and opens a return toward the 0.8336 asian high
Rejection at ema50 near the 50% of the London drop keeps the retest of the asian low as resistance
Failure to hold the 0.8311 session low extends the London downtrend below the 0.8310–0.8315 zone
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR(14) at 4.2 pips sets the baseline move size
London broke below the Asian range; lower highs intact, price retesting ema20 from below.
London open broke below the 0.8317 asian low as USD's post-CPI run paused, with the leg extending to a 0.8311 session low inside the cited 0.8310–0.8315 prior-highs support. Price has since bounced to 0.8319 and is pressing into the ema20 (0.8320) near the 38.2% fib of the London drop, with RSI(14) recovering to 46 from 32.
Support: 0.8317, 0.8311
Resistance: 0.8320, 0.8323
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8323 lower high and ema50 (0.8322) would break the London lower-high sequence
Failure back below the 0.8317 asian low and then the 0.8311 session low extends the London leg below 0.8310 support
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since London open; Asian range low broken, now retested from below.
London opened with a break below the Asian low at 0.8317 as the USD's post-CPI run cooled, printing a session low of 0.83114 inside the 0.8310–0.8315 former-highs support zone. The bounce has stalled back at the broken asian low, with price below a falling ema20 (0.83201) and ema50 (0.83221) and RSI(14) recovering to 44 from 32.
Support: 0.83114, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83171, 0.83201, 0.8323
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.83114 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.8300 round number
M15 close back above the 0.8323 swing high, near the 38.2–50% fib of the Asian-high drop, breaks the lower-high sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower at London open; lower highs since 09:30 UTC.
London broke the Asian low at 0.8317 at the open and has stepped down through lower highs to a 0.8311 session low. Price sits below the EMA20 (0.8320) and EMA50 (0.8322), with RSI(14) at 38.4. The dip into the 0.8310-0.8315 former-highs zone cited in the CHF digest has drawn only a small bounce, with the lower-highs line and the 38.2% fib near the ema20 capping the retrace.
Support: 0.83114, 0.8299
Resistance: 0.8317, 0.83204, 0.8323
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8317 Asian low and the 0.8320 ema20 / 38.2% fib breaks the lower-highs sequence
Reclaim of the 0.8323 lower high and the 0.8322 EMA50 neutralises the London downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.8311 session low exposes the 0.8299 rally base from yesterday's NY breakout
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fed's Hammack at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 32 · price 0.83127
Asian range broken lower, testing 0.8310-0.8315 zone.
London broke the Asian low at 0.8318 straight from the open and has stepped down in lower highs to a 0.8312 session low. Price is now pressing the 0.8310-0.8315 former-highs zone beneath both EMAs after a bearish ema20/ema50 cross. RSI(14) sits at 32.4, not oversold, and ATR is a quiet 4.4 pips; the slide reads as a pullback from yesterday's CPI-driven NY rally to 0.8337, with no fresh Swiss catalyst.
Support: 0.83124, 0.8310, 0.8299
Resistance: 0.8318, 0.83209, 0.83232
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8310 former high exposes the 0.8299 rally base from yesterday's NY breakout
Reclaim of the 0.8318 Asian low and the ema20 near 0.8321 stalls the London downtrend read
Close above the 0.8323 lower high and the London trendline invalidates the lower-high sequence
Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K), followed by Hammack and Barr Fedspeak, could materially shift this read in NY hours
10:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 37 · price 0.83155
Asian range broken to the downside; lower-high, lower-low chain testing the 0.8310-0.8315 support.
London broke below the Asian low at 0.8317 as the USD trimmed its post-CPI gains. Price printed a fresh session low at 0.8313 through a chain of lower highs off the 0.8336 Asia high and now sits on the 0.8310-0.8315 former-highs support. It trades below a falling ema20 that has crossed under ema50, with RSI(14) at 37 and ATR(14) at 4.5 pips.
Support: 0.8313, 0.8310
Resistance: 0.8317, 0.83217, 0.83362
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8310 round number extends the lower-low sequence through former-highs support
Reclaim of the 0.8317 asian low back into the range would mark the break as a false break
Close above the lower-highs line and the ema20 at 0.83217 invalidates the intraday downtrend read
A 50% fib retracement of the Asia high-to-session low move sits near 0.8325, above the ema20
US Initial Jobless Claims in ~3h and Fedspeak from ~3.5h could materially shift this read
10:16 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower in London · RSI 37 · price 0.83178
Lower highs since London open, base forming near 0.8315.
Mid-London, USD/CHF has slipped below the Asian low at 0.8317 as the dollar trims post-CPI gains. Demand stepped in twice near the 0.8315 london low, but the bounce stalled around the 50% level of the London drop fib, and price holds below ema20 (0.8322) and ema50 (0.8323) with RSI 37. ATR 4.4 pips points to a slow grind, not a flush.
Support: 0.8315, 0.8310
Resistance: 0.83222, 0.83232, 0.83363
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8315 london low exposes 0.8310 psych, the cited support zone
Reclaim of ema20/ema50 at 0.8322-0.8323 breaks the lower-high sequence
Asian high at 0.8336 is the next cap if the London drop fib fully retraces
Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range low broken at London open; tight 0.8315–0.8323 base below both EMAs.
London open broke the 0.8317 Asian range low as USD trimmed its post-CPI gains, with the london low at 0.8315 tested twice. Highs have stepped down from the 0.8336 asian high to the 0.8333 lower high and then 0.8323, and bounces stall at the ema20 (0.8323), which sits just under the ema50. Mid-London, RSI(14) is soft at 37.7 but not oversold, and ATR runs 4.6 pips.
Support: 0.8315, 0.8299
Resistance: 0.83229, 0.8333, 0.83363
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8323 ema20 breaks the lower-high sequence and the 38–50% fib cap on the London drop
Failure to hold the 0.8315 london low exposes the 0.8299 breakout base from yesterday's NY rally
Reclaim of the 0.8333 lower high puts the 0.8336 asian high back in play
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:46 UTC
Intraday down, lower highs since Asia · RSI 39 · price 0.8318
Asian range broken lower at London open, basing at 0.8315.
London open broke the Asian range low near 0.8317 and printed a 0.8315 london low twice. The rebound stalled at 0.8323, below the ema20/ema50 cluster near 0.8324, which has just crossed lower. RSI(14) sits at 39 and ATR has expanded to 4.7 pips, a pullback within the USD bid that followed Tuesday's CPI beat, off the 0.8336 asian high.
Support: 0.8315, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.8324, 0.8333, 0.8336
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8315 london low extends the lower-high chain toward the 0.8300 psych level
Reclaim of the ema20 cluster at 0.8324 and the 0.8333 lower high negates the London range break
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fed's Hammack at 14:00 UTC could reset the session range in NY
London sold below the Asian range; double bottom at 0.8315.
The London open broke the Asian range lower from 0.8333. It swept the overnight low near 0.8317 and printed a twin London low at 0.8315. Price is now holding below the flat EMA20/EMA50 cluster at 0.8324, with RSI(14) at 41.5 and ATR expanding slightly to 4.7 pips, while the post-CPI USD bid stalls below the Asia high at 0.8336.
Support: 0.8315, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.8324, 0.8333, 0.83363
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8324 ema20 completes the double bottom and reopens the London open area at 0.8333
Failure to hold the 0.8315 London low exposes the 0.8300 psych level
Break of the lower-highs trendline from the Asia high would neutralise the pullback read
US jobless claims (f/c 195K) in ~4h and Fed speakers afterwards could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Asia, London low 0.8315 holding twice.
London open broke the Asian drift lower and swept the 0.8317 Asian low to a 0.8315 london low. Buyers stepped in there twice, and price is now retracing toward the ema20 at 0.83245 with RSI(14) back to 45 from 35. Despite the post-CPI USD bid, the session has printed lower highs from 0.8336 in Asia to the 0.8333 london high.
Support: 0.8315, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83245, 0.8333, 0.83374
What it said to watch
Rejection at the ema20 (0.83245), which sits at the 50% of the london drop fib, keeps the lower highs intact
M15 close above the 0.8333 london high breaks the lower-highs line and puts yesterday's 0.8337 prior high back in play
Loss of the 0.8315 london low voids the double bottom and exposes the 0.8300 round number
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:01 UTC
Intraday pullback, below both EMAs · RSI 41 · price 0.83184
London break of Asian range low, basing at 0.8315.
The CPI-fuelled USD rally topped at the 0.8337 prior high late yesterday. The London open then broke the Asian range low near 0.8317 from the 0.8333 London high. The drop stalled at the 0.8315 London low and price is basing just under the 0.8325 ema cluster, with RSI(14) at 40.9 and ATR at 4.7 pips, edging wider.
Support: 0.8315, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83245, 0.8333, 0.8337
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8315 london low extends the range break toward the 0.8300 round number
Reclaim of the 0.8325 ema cluster (50–61.8% of the London drop fib) neutralises the breakdown read
Close above the 0.8333 london high reopens the 0.8337 prior high
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since the Asia high · RSI 36 · price 0.83178
London broke the Asian range low; lower highs and lower lows from 0.8336.
Nearly two hours into London, USD/CHF has slipped through the Asian range low at 0.8317 to a london low of 0.8315. That extends the lower highs running from the 0.8336 asia high and leaves price below both EMAs, with RSI(14) at 35.5 and ATR at 4.6 pips. The post-CPI USD bid is fading at the margin, and Wednesday's 0.8300 breakout level is the next reference below.
Support: 0.8315, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83252, 0.8333, 0.83363
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8315 london low exposes the 0.8300 breakout level, which the digest flags as the 0.8300–0.8315 band
An M15 close back above the ema20 near 0.8325 would neutralise the London range-break read
A close above the 0.8333 london high breaks the lower-highs trendline from the 0.8336 asia high
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Around the London open USDCHF slid from 0.8330 to a London low of 0.8315, briefly undercutting the 0.8317 Asian low before steadying near 0.8320. The post-CPI USD bid has stalled under yesterday's 0.8337 high, with a chain of lower highs since; price sits below the ema20 (0.8326) and ema50 (0.83246), RSI(14) is 38 and ATR(14) has edged up to 4.7 pips.
Support: 0.8317, 0.8315, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.8326, 0.8336
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the ema20 at 0.8326 and the lower-highs line negates the downside read; 0.8336 Asian high above
Acceptance below the 0.8315 London low opens the 0.8300 round number
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:16 UTC
Short-term downtrend, early London · RSI 37 · price 0.83182
London broke below Asian range low; lower highs since 0.8336.
Early London broke the Asian range low near 0.8317 and printed a 0.8315 session low. Price slipped below the ema20 (0.8327) and ema50 (0.8325), with ATR(14) expanding to 4.7 pips and RSI(14) at 36.8. The pullback follows a descending line of lower highs off the 0.8336 Asian high. It retraces part of the two-day USD rally, but price is still holding above the 0.8300 round number.
Support: 0.8315, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83248, 0.83363
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8315 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8300 round number
A close back above the 0.8325 ema50 and the descending line negates the Asian range break
Recovery through the 0.8336 Asian high reinstates the prior range top
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:01 UTC
Intraday pullback inside a range · RSI 39 · price 0.83213
London open rejected 0.8333; price back at the Asian range base.
The London open was rejected at 0.8333 and price fell back to the 0.8319 London low, near the 0.8317 Asian low at the base of the Asian range (0.8317–0.8336). It holds just above the 38.2% level of the NY rally fib, the leg driven by the broad USD bid on hawkish Fed repricing. Price trades below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) at 39 and ATR around 4.5 pips.
Support: 0.8319, 0.83171
Resistance: 0.83251, 0.8333, 0.83363
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8317 Asian low breaks the Asian range and exposes the 50% NY rally fib near 0.8315 and the 0.8300 area
Reclaim of the ema50 at 0.8325 puts the 0.8333 London high and 0.8336 Asian high back in focus
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:46 UTC
Range, rolling over at London open · RSI 40 · price 0.83204
Overnight range 0.8317–0.8336, price testing the floor.
London open sold the pair off the 0.8333 area into the 0.8320 psych level, below both the ema20 and ema50. The drop retraced ~80% of the Asia swing as CHF steadied after the post-CPI rally. RSI(14) fell to 39.9 and ATR picked up to 4.6 pips; the asia low at 0.8317, defended twice overnight, is next below, with the asia high at 0.8336 capping the range.
Support: 0.8320, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.83252, 0.83282, 0.83363
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8317 asia low breaks the overnight range and puts the full Asia swing retracement in play
Reclaim of the ema50 at 0.8325 and then the ema20 at 0.8328 returns price to mid-range
Asia high at 0.8336 still caps the range; only a close above it changes the read
US Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
Sideways after Asian rally, momentum neutral · RSI 53 · price 0.83289
Compressing inside Asian range, 0.8324–0.8336.
Asia rebounded from the 0.8317 asian low to 0.8336 on the post-CPI Fed-pricing bid. Since then price has rotated between the 0.8324 range low, which sits at the 61.8% fib of that Asian leg, and highs just below the asian high. Into London open price is pinned at a flat ema20 with RSI(14) near 53 and ATR(14) compressing to 4.2 pips, so no directional setup is in play.
Support: 0.83289, 0.83244, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.83363, 0.83374
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8336 asian high and 0.8337 prior high breaks the range to the upside
Failure to hold the 0.8324 range low (61.8% fib) exposes the 0.8317 asian low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could reshape the NY session read
Asian range 0.8317–0.8336 with higher lows; Wednesday's 0.8337 high capping.
After Wednesday's NY-session leg to 0.8337 on post-CPI Fed hike repricing, the pair has held a tight Asian range of 0.8317–0.8336. Dips held the 0.8324 area just above the ema50 (0.8325) and the trendline from the 0.8317 asian low. Price sits marginally above a flat ema20, RSI is neutral at 52.8 and ATR has compressed to 4.2 pips as London open approaches.
Support: 0.83252, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.8336, 0.8337
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8336 asian high and the 0.8337 prior high breaks the consolidation
Failure to hold the ema50 at 0.8325 exposes the 0.8317 asian low and the lower part of the rally fib
Shallow pullback within the rally fib keeps the Wednesday advance structurally intact
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 0.8317–0.8336 with higher lows, price mid-to-upper range.
USDCHF is consolidating inside the 0.8317–0.8336 Asian range after Wednesday's CPI-driven NY rally into the 0.8337 day high. Higher lows off the asian low hold price just above ema20 and ema50 into the European open. RSI 54.6 and ATR at 4.2 pips describe a compressed, directionless tape.
Support: 0.83287, 0.83244, 0.83171
Resistance: 0.83363, 0.83374
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8336 asian high and 0.8337 day high breaks the range to the upside
Failure to hold the 0.8324 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.8317 asian low
Slipping below the ema20 at 0.8329 keeps price pinned in the lower half of the range
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fed speakers that follow could materially shift this read
Asian range 0.8317–0.8336 capped below 0.8337 prior high; lower highs since 02:30 UTC.
Late Asia, just ahead of London open. USD/CHF holds above 0.8300 after the post-CPI NY rally, but supply has capped price twice at 0.8336–0.8337, at the prior high from Wednesday NY and at the Asian session high, with a lower-high line pressing on price near the ema20. Buyers stepped in at the 0.8324 swing low, the 61.8% fib of the Asian leg sitting next to the ema50. RSI is neutral at 53.6 and ATR is compressing to 4.3 pips.
Support: 0.83284, 0.83244, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.83322, 0.83374
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8337 prior high breaks the double cap and the lower-high line
A move through the 0.8332 lower high would be the first break of the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.8324 swing low (61.8% fib, near ema50) exposes the 0.8317 asian low
London open could expand the compressed range
Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Sideways after post-CPI rally, lower highs since Asia · RSI 47 · price 0.83262
Asian range 0.83170–0.83363, lower highs into London open.
USDCHF holds Wednesday's post-CPI Fed-repricing gains but has printed lower highs since the 0.83363 Asian high, sitting between the ema20 (0.83282) and ema50 (0.83246) with RSI(14) neutral at 47 and ATR compressing to 4.3 pips. The 0.83244 swing low lines up with the 61.8% of the Asia rally fib, so it is the pivot heading into London open.
Support: 0.83244, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.83282, 0.83322, 0.83363
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.83244 swing low breaks the Asia higher-low and exposes the 0.83170 asian low
Close above the 0.83322 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.83363 asian high
London open is the first test of the Asian range edges
US Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 UTC and Hammack 14:00 UTC could shift Fed pricing and this read
06:16 UTC
Post-CPI gains held, sideways in Asia · RSI 55 · price 0.83297
Asian range 0.8317–0.8336 capped below prior high, pre-London.
USD/CHF is holding its CPI-driven gains inside a 0.8317–0.8336 Asian range ahead of London open. Supply capped the asian high just under yesterday's 0.8337 prior high. The early pullback found demand at 0.8324, the 61.8% fib of the Asian leg near the ema50, and price is back above the ema20 with RSI(14) neutral at 54.7 and ATR(14) compressed to 4.3 pips.
Support: 0.83284, 0.83244, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.83363, 0.83374
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8337 prior high breaks the Asian range top
Failure to hold the 0.8324 61.8% fib and ema50 exposes the 0.8317 asian low
Slip back below the ema20 at 0.8328 keeps price rotating mid-range
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 14:00 could materially shift this read
06:01 UTC
Sideways after post-CPI rally, fading off highs · RSI 45 · price 0.83274
Asian range 0.8317–0.8336 with lower highs off the top.
Asia session ran 0.8317–0.8336, with the asian high capped just under yesterday's 0.8337 NY peak set on the post-CPI USD bid. Price has since printed lower highs into the London open and now sits below ema20 at 0.8328, testing ema50 and the 61.8% retracement of the Asia rally near 0.8324. RSI(14) at 45 and ATR(14) easing to 4.1 pips point to a quiet tape mid-range.
Support: 0.83242, 0.8317, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83282, 0.83363
What it said to watch
M15 close below ema50 at 0.8324 (61.8% of the Asia rally) exposes the asian low at 0.8317
Loss of the asian low opens the 0.8300 round number, top of the broken 0.8300–0.8315 zone
Close back above ema20 at 0.8328 and the Asia lower-highs line neutralises the fade
Asian high at 0.8336 rejected twice; a break above it extends the range
London open in about 1h could set the session range; US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 14:00 UTC are the next USD catalysts
USD/CHF is holding the hot-CPI gains inside the Asian range of 0.8317–0.8336. The asian high met rejection twice just under the 0.8337 prior high, and lower highs since 02:30 UTC have pulled price below the ema20 at 0.8329. Late in the Asia session, price is testing the ema50 at 0.8324, which aligns with the 61.8% retracement of the asian swing. RSI(14) is neutral at 45 and ATR is compressed at 4.2 pips.
Support: 0.83242, 0.8317, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83285, 0.83363, 0.83374
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.8324 ema50 exposes the 0.8317 asian low
Failure to hold the 0.8317 asian low puts the 0.8300 psych level and the broken 0.8300–0.8315 zone in play
A close above the lower highs line and the 0.8337 prior high breaks the range to the upside
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing below Asian high · RSI 53 · price 0.83294
Higher lows inside Asian range 0.8317–0.8336, compressing under the prior high.
Late Asia, about 2.5h before London: USD/CHF holds the upper half of the Asian range after a 02:30 UTC push to the 0.8336 Asian high. That push extended the CPI-driven dollar bid. Dips have held at the 0.8326 swing low, the 50% retrace of the Asian leg, along rising support, with price just above the ema20. ATR has compressed to 4.1 pips and the prior high at 0.8337 still caps.
Support: 0.83263, 0.83241, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.83363, 0.83374
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8337 prior high clears the Asian high and breaks the range to the upside
Failure at the 0.8326 swing low and rising support exposes the ema50 at 0.8324, then the Asian low at 0.8317
London open typically expands the compressed 4-pip ATR; a break of the Asian range in either direction sets the session tone
US Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC) and the Fed speaker slate can shift December hike pricing and this read
05:16 UTC
Sideways after NY rally, higher lows intact · RSI 51 · price 0.83279
Asian range 0.8317–0.8336 below yesterday's high.
USD/CHF is holding yesterday's USD-driven NY rally that ran into the 0.8337 prior high. The late-Asia session is compressing between the 0.8326 swing low and the 0.8336 Asian high. Price sits just under the flat ema20 and above the ema50 at 0.8324, with RSI(14) neutral at 51 and ATR at 4.1 pips, pointing to a quiet pre-London tape near the 38.2% retrace of the Asian leg.
Support: 0.83263, 0.83239, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.83363, 0.83374
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8336 Asian high and the 0.8337 prior high breaks the range to the upside
Loss of the 0.8326 swing low and the hl trendline exposes the ema50 at 0.8324, then the 0.8317 Asian low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fed speaker slate later in the day could materially shift this read
Late-Asia consolidation 0.8326–0.8336 with higher lows off the 0.8317 Asian low.
Fed-hike repricing kept USD bid. Asia defended the 0.8317 Asian low twice and rallied back to 0.8336, a pip shy of NY's 0.8337 prior high, where price was rejected. Price is holding above the ema20 at 0.8329 in a tight 0.8326–0.8336 box of higher lows. RSI(14) is neutral at 55 and ATR has compressed to 4.2 pips into the London open.
Support: 0.83288, 0.83263, 0.83171
Resistance: 0.83374, 0.8340
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.8337 prior high, and then the 0.8400 round number, ends the consolidation read
Loss of the 0.8326 swing low (50% of the Asia rally fib) breaks the higher lows and exposes the 0.8317 Asian low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
0.8317–0.8337 band holding the Fed-repricing gains; Asia leg off the low now retracing.
USD/CHF is holding yesterday's hike-repricing rally in a 0.8317–0.8337 band. The Asia leg bounced off the 0.8317 asian low to the 0.8336 asian high, just shy of the 0.8337 prior high, and is now fading onto the ema20 at 0.8329 near its 38.2% retracement. RSI(14) has eased from 64 to 52 and ATR(14) has compressed to 4.2 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 0.83286, 0.83234, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.83363, 0.83374
What it said to watch
Hold of the ema20 at 0.8329, then the ema50 at 0.8323, keeps the Asia leg's higher-low structure intact
M15 close below the 0.8317 asian low breaks the consolidation floor and exposes 0.8300
Close above the 0.8336 asian high and 0.8337 prior high ends the range read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from Hammack at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Late-Asia range 0.8330–0.8336 under NY high; higher lows off 0.8317.
The post-CPI USD bid carried USDCHF to a 0.83374 prior high in NY. The daily-open gap lower filled, and from the 0.8317 asia low the Asia session rallied back to an asia high of 0.83363, where it met rejection. Price now ranges 0.8330–0.8336 above the ema20 at 0.83286, with RSI(14) at 57.2 and ATR at 4.3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 0.83286, 0.83232, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.83363, 0.83374
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.83374 prior high breaks the double test at the top and extends the range
Loss of the ema20 at 0.83286 shifts focus to the ema50 at 0.83232, then the 0.8317 asia low
Failure to hold the 0.8317 asia low unwinds the Asia rally fib leg entirely
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia rising lows from 0.8317, capped near 0.8336–37.
Mid-Asia, USDCHF formed a double bottom at the 0.8317 asia low, then pushed to the 0.8336 asia high. That sits just under the 0.8337 prior high set during NY hours, as the post-CPI USD bid and Fed-hike repricing hold the pair near four-week highs. Price is above the ema20 (0.8328) and ema50 (0.8323) with RSI(14) at 60 and ATR(14) at 4.4 pips, a contained tape ahead of London open.
Support: 0.83283, 0.83229, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.83363, 0.83374
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8337 prior high and 0.8336 asia high breaks the consolidation top
Loss of the ema20 at 0.8328 and the asia rising lows line exposes the ema50 at 0.8323
Break below the 0.8317 asia low voids the double bottom and the rising-lows sequence
US jobless claims 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC (Hammack, Barr, Goolsbee, Daly) could materially shift this read
After the rollover gap lower, Asia printed a double bottom at the 0.8317 asian low and rallied to 0.8336 as the post-CPI rates shock kept USD bid. Supply capped two pushes just under yesterday's NY prior high at 0.8337. Price holds above the ema20 (0.8328) and ema50 (0.8322), with RSI(14) at 58.9 and ATR at 4.5 pips; the asia rally fib frames the pullback.
Support: 0.83279, 0.83225, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.83374, 0.8350
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8337 prior high opens the 0.8350 round number
Loss of the ema20 at 0.8328 puts the ema50 at 0.8322 back in play
Break of the 0.8317 asian low negates the double bottom and the asia rally structure
London open liquidity could test the Asian range edges
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Thu Fedspeak could materially shift this read
03:46 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under prior high · RSI 62 · price 0.8332
0.8317–0.8337 range since NY afternoon; Asia rebound pressing the range top.
USD/CHF carried the post-CPI dollar bid through London and NY yesterday to a 0.8337 prior high. It has since held a 0.8317–0.8337 range, and late in the Asia session it rebounded off the 0.8317 Asian low to stall twice at 0.8336, just under the range top. RSI(14) at 61.5 has recovered from the low 40s and price sits above ema20 (0.8328) and ema50 (0.8322), with ATR(14) at 4.6 pips.
Support: 0.83275, 0.83221, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.83374, 0.8350
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8337 prior high breaks the range top and opens the 0.8350 round number
Loss of ema20 near 0.8328, then ema50 at 0.8322, would return price to the middle of the range and the asian leg 50–61.8% retrace
Failure to hold the 0.8317 asian low confirms a range break lower
US jobless claims and Fedspeak from 13:30 UTC (Williams late) could materially shift this read
Asian range broken higher, consolidating above ema20.
Late Asia session broke the 0.8317–0.8327 Asian range higher as the post-CPI dollar bid extended. The move stalled twice near 0.8336, just under the prior high at 0.8337 from yesterday's NY session. Price is holding above the ema20 (0.8327), which lines up with the 50% fib of the Asian breakout, with RSI(14) at 59 and ATR(14) widening to 4.8 pips.
Support: 0.83269, 0.83217, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.83374, 0.8340
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8337 prior high reopens the 0.8340 round number and extends the NY-session uptrend
Loss of the ema20 at 0.8327 and the Asian trend support returns price into the old Asian range toward the ema50 at 0.8322
A break of the 0.8317 asian low invalidates the range-break read
London open is the next test of the breakout; Fedspeak and US jobless claims later Thursday (13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Asian range 0.8317–0.8336, price at range top after double bottom.
Mid-Asia session, USDCHF is pressing the 0.8337 prior high from yesterday's NY session after a double bottom at the 0.8317 Asian low. The Asia leg off that low extends the post-CPI USD bid. RSI(14) is at 62 and ATR(14) has expanded to 4.8 pips, with price above both the ema20 (0.8326) and the ema50 (0.8321).
Support: 0.83264, 0.83213, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.83374, 0.8340
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8337 prior high and the 0.8340 round number breaks the Asian range top
Loss of the ema20 at 0.8326 puts price back mid-range. A break below the 0.8317 asian low voids the double bottom
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and a run of Fed speakers through Williams at 23:30 UTC could reshape this read
03:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, rebuilding after Asia dip · RSI 62 · price 0.83329
Asian double bottom at 0.8317, breakout above 0.8329 range top.
USD/CHF held a double bottom at the 0.8317 Asian low and broke the 0.8329 range top at 02:30 UTC. The move stalled just under Wednesday's 0.8337 prior high, the peak of the post-CPI dollar bid. RSI(14) is at 61.5, both EMAs sit below price, the EMA20 is turning up, and ATR is expanding to 4.9 pips from 3.5 at the start of Asia.
Support: 0.8329, 0.83258, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.83374, 0.8340
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8337 prior high and the 0.8340 round number extends the post-CPI higher-high sequence
Slip back below the 0.8329 range top, and then the ema20 at 0.8326, turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the rising lows from 0.8317 reopens the Asian low and the 0.8300–0.8315 zone
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers through NY hours could reprice December hike odds and shift this read
02:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend resuming after Asian base · RSI 64 · price 0.83322
Asian range break higher, testing NY high.
Late in the Asia session, price cleared the Asian high at 0.8329 and tagged a 0.83363 session high, just under yesterday's NY prior high at 0.83374. The USD bid after the hot CPI print is still driving the pair. A double bottom at the 0.8317 Asian low held, price sits above the ema20 at 0.83251, RSI(14) is at 63.8 and ATR has expanded to 4.9 pips from 2.9.
Support: 0.8329, 0.83251, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.83363, 0.83374
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8329 asian high turns the range break into a false break
Close above the 0.83374 prior high clears yesterday's NY peak
Loss of the ema20 at 0.83251 puts the 0.8317 asian low double bottom back in focus
London open is in roughly 4h. US jobless claims and Fed speakers later today could materially shift this read
Asian range 0.8317–0.8330 below the 0.8337 prior high.
Wednesday's CPI-driven USD extension peaked at the 0.8337 prior high during NY hours. Asia has held a 0.8317–0.8330 range since then, with the rollover gap low and the asian low sitting near the 23.6% fib. Price is now testing the asian high, back above the flattening ema20 and the rising ema50, with RSI(14) at 55 and ATR(14) at 4.5 pips.
Support: 0.83242, 0.83198, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.83295, 0.83374
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8330 asian high opens a retest of the 0.8337 prior high
Loss of ema20 at 0.8324 and ema50 near 0.8320 returns price to the asian low at 0.8317
Break below the 0.8317 asian low and the 23.6% fib exposes the 38.2% retracement near 0.8306
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers through the NY session could materially shift this read
Tight Asian range 0.8317–0.8329 with rising lows, beneath the 0.8337 NY high.
Wednesday's London-NY leg extended the post-CPI dollar rally from 0.8255 to a 0.8337 NY high. Mid-Asia now compresses inside a 0.8317–0.8329 Asian range, with the asian low holding near the 23.6% fib of that rally and rising lows into the flat ema20 (0.8324). The rising ema50 sits at 0.8320, RSI is neutral at 50.7 and ATR has expanded to 4.5 pips.
Support: 0.83195, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.8329, 0.83374
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8329 asian high reopens the 0.8337 NY high
Loss of the 0.8317 asian low and ema50 breaks the rising-lows structure toward the 38.2% fib near 0.8306
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London open could resolve the Asian range in either direction
02:02 UTC
Range after post-CPI rally, lower highs since NY peak · RSI 47 · price 0.83234
Asia range 0.8317–0.8329 beneath 0.83374 NY high; lower-highs line capping.
After the USD-driven leg from 0.8295 to the 0.83374 NY high, Asia session is boxed in a 0.8317–0.8329 range with lower highs since the peak. Price sits just under the ema20 near the 38.2% fib level, and the asia low at 0.8317 has held twice just below the ema50 at 0.8319. RSI(14) is neutral at 47.4 and ATR has widened to 4.5 pips.
Support: 0.83193, 0.8317, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83239, 0.8329, 0.83374
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8317 asia low breaks the range and exposes the 0.8300 breakout zone
M15 close above the 0.8329 asia high and the lower-highs line reopens the 0.83374 ny high
Thu 13:30 UTC US Jobless Claims and the Fed-speaker slate could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Pullback within intraday uptrend · RSI 46 · price 0.83219
Asian range 0.8317–0.8329, lower highs below 0.8337.
Wednesday's USD-driven rally on hawkish Fed repricing topped at the 0.8337 prior high during NY hours. The pair has since printed lower highs and slipped into a 0.8317–0.8329 Asian range. Price sits between the ema20 at 0.8324 and the ema50 at 0.8319, with the asian low tested twice and holding; RSI(14) is neutral at 45.5 and ATR(14) is 4.6 pips.
Support: 0.83192, 0.8317, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.8324, 0.8329, 0.83374
What it said to watch
A break below the 0.8317 asian low exposes the 0.8300 psych level, the top of the 0.8300–0.8315 breakout zone
An M15 close above the 0.8329 asian high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 0.8337 prior high back in play
Failure to reclaim the ema20 at 0.8324 keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
US Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC) and the Fed-speaker slate later today could shift this read
Asia is ranging 0.8317–0.8329 after a pullback from the 0.8337 session high set in NY on the post-CPI dollar bid. The rollover gap below 0.8330 is still unfilled. Price is pinned just under the ema20 (0.8324) with RSI(14) at 49.5, and the 0.8317 asian low has held twice near the 50% fib of the NY rally, above the ema50 at 0.8319.
Support: 0.83191, 0.8317, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.8329, 0.83374
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.8317 asian low breaks the range and exposes the 0.8300 breakout area
Close above the 0.8329 asian high fills the gap and reopens the 0.8337 session high
ATR(14) has risen from 3.1 to 4.4 pips: range edges are getting tested harder
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fed-speaker slate could shift this read
Lower highs in Asia above 0.8317 floor, below ema20.
The US-data-driven NY rally broke 0.8300 and peaked at the 0.8337 NY high. Since the rollover gap lower, the Asia session has printed lower highs from 0.8327 under a falling ema20 at 0.8324. Price is pinned near the ema50 at 0.8319, just above a twice-tested 0.8317 Asia low and close to the 38.2% fib of the 0.8295–0.8337 leg. RSI(14) at 41.8 is soft but not stretched, and ATR(14) is 4.3 pips.
Support: 0.83189, 0.8317, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83243, 0.8327, 0.83374
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8317 asia low extends the pullback toward the 50% fib near 0.8316 and then the 0.8300 breakout level
Reclaim of ema20 and the 0.8327 asia high breaks the Asia lower-high trendline
London open could set a new session range around the 0.8317–0.8327 Asia box
Thu 13:30 UTC Jobless Claims and Fedspeak could re-test the 0.8337 ny high
Asian range 0.8317–0.8329 under NY high, lower highs.
The post-CPI USD bid carried the pair to a NY high at 0.83374. Early Asia it has retraced to the 38.2% fib of the NY-session leg and is pinned between the ema20 at 0.83247 and the ema50 at 0.83189. The asian low at 0.8317 held twice under a run of lower highs, with RSI(14) at 40.5 and ATR(14) expanding to 4.3 pips.
Support: 0.83189, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.83247, 0.8329, 0.83374
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8317 asian low breaks the double-tested floor and the ema50, exposing the 0.8300 area
Close above the 0.8329 asian high clears the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.83374 ny high
Thu 13:30 UTC US Jobless Claims and the Fedspeak slate are the next catalysts for the 0.8300–0.8315 zone
Lower highs off the 0.8337 NY high, Asian low at 0.8317 holding.
USD/CHF ran from 0.8256 to a 0.8337 NY high on the CPI-driven USD bid, then faded into a lower-highs drift. In Asia the 0.8317 Asian low has held twice, leaving price pinned between the ema50 at 0.8319 and the ema20 at 0.8325, with RSI(14) at 48 and ATR(14) at 4.2 pips.
Support: 0.83189, 0.8317, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83253, 0.8329, 0.83374
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8317 Asian low exposes the 0.8300 round number, the prior breakout zone
Reclaim of the ema20 and a break of the 0.8329 Asian high puts the lower-highs line and 0.8337 NY high back in play
US Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC) and the Fedspeak slate later Thursday could materially shift this read
00:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 45 · price 0.83228
Pullback from 0.8337 NY high, two holds at 0.8317.
The CPI-led USD rally carried USD/CHF through 0.8300 during NY hours to a 0.8337 NY high. After the rollover gap down, early Asia has twice held the 0.8317 asia low, just under the ema50 and at the 23.6% of the day's rally fib. Price sits below the ema20 at 0.8325, RSI 44.5 is neutral and ATR has expanded to 4.3 pips.
Support: 0.83186, 0.8317, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83254, 0.83304, 0.83374
What it said to watch
Close back above the ema20 at 0.8325 and the 0.8330 gap fill reopens the 0.8337 NY high
Break of the 0.8317 asia low and the ema50 exposes the 0.8300 round number breakout level
Thu 13:30 UTC Jobless Claims and the Fedspeak slate, Williams at 23:30, could reprice the 50bp tail
Lower highs off the 0.8337 NY high, twin lows at 0.8317 holding.
The post-CPI USD bid carried the pair through 0.8300 during NY hours to a 0.8337 NY high. Price has since faded through the rollover gap, and two tests of the 0.8317 swing low near the 50% of the NY rally fib have held. Early Asia session trades at 0.8322, below the ema20 at 0.8326 and above the ema50 at 0.8319, with RSI(14) at 45 and ATR at 4.3 pips.
Support: 0.8317, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83258, 0.8329, 0.83374
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8317 swing low and ema50 exposes the 0.8300 round number and former breakout area
Reclaim of the ema20 and the 0.8329 lower high would break the pullback sequence and put the 0.8337 NY high back in play
Thu 13:30 UTC Jobless Claims and the Fedspeak slate are the next scheduled shift risk; Asia range likely sets the tone until then
Post-rally pullback between ema50 and ema20 after rollover gap lower.
The post-CPI dollar bid carried USDCHF about 86 pips from the Asian low at 0.8251 to a NY session high of 0.8337, before a thin rollover gap from 0.8330 knocked it back to a 0.8317 swing low. That low sits at the 23.6% fib of the rally and just under the ema50 at 0.8318. Price is now pinned below the ema20 at 0.8326, with RSI(14) cooled from 72 to 47 and ATR at 3.9 pips as the Asia session opens.
Support: 0.8317, 0.83183, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83261, 0.8330, 0.83374
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8317 swing low and ema50 confirms a lower low and opens the 0.8300–0.8315 zone, with the 38.2% fib near 0.8304 and the 0.8300 round number
Reclaim of the ema20 at 0.8326 and a fill of the 0.8330 gap would put the 0.8337 session high back in play
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fed speaker slate from 14:00 UTC Thursday could materially shift this read