USD/CHF AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Wednesday, 11 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CHF 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back in thin trade · RSI 42 · price 0.83223
Broke below NY range floor after rollover, holding above ema50.
Hot US CPI and firm Fed-hike pricing carried the pair from the 0.8250 Asian base to a 0.8337 session high in NY, followed by a tight 0.8329–0.8337 range. Thin rollover trade gapped price under that range floor to a 0.8317 rollover low. The low sits on the 23.6% fib of the day's rally and just below the ema50. Price is back under the ema20, RSI(14) has cooled from 74 to 41.6, and ATR is 3.9 pips.
Support: 0.83181, 0.8317, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83263, 0.8329, 0.83374
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.8317 rollover low and the ema50 opens the 0.8300 psych level and the 38.2% fib near 0.8304
Recovery above the ema20 at 0.8326 and back inside the 0.8329 range floor restores the NY range read below the 0.8337 session high
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fed speaker slate on Thursday could materially shift this read
Asia session liquidity is thin, so moves through the rollover low may not hold
23:31 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from highs · RSI 42 · price 0.83225
Lower highs below 0.8337; late-NY range lost at rollover.
The USD bid lifted the pair from 0.8256 to a 0.8337 swing high during NY hours. Price has since slipped out of the late-NY range in thin rollover trade and sits below ema20 (0.8327) but above ema50 (0.8318), with the 0.8317 swing low and the 23.6% rally fib clustered beneath. RSI(14) at 42 has cooled from the 70s and ATR(14) has picked up to 3.9 pips from 2.9.
Support: 0.8318, 0.8317, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83269, 0.8329, 0.83374
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8317 swing low and ema50 exposes the 0.8300 round number, the top of the digest's 0.8300–0.8315 zone
Reclaiming ema20 and the 0.8329 ny range low puts the 0.8337 swing high back in view
Moves in thin Asia session liquidity after rollover may not hold into London open
US jobless claims and the Fed speaker slate on Thursday could materially shift this read
The post-CPI USD bid carried the pair from the 0.8249 Asian low to a 0.8337 session high during NY hours. The late 0.8329–0.8335 range broke at the rollover, and early Asia session is now testing the 0.8318 swing low and ema50, near the 23.6% fib of the day's rally. RSI(14) at 36 and price below the ema20 at 0.8327 show fading momentum, with ATR at 3.9 pips in thin trade.
Support: 0.83183, 0.83178, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83274, 0.8329, 0.83374
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8318 swing low and ema50 exposes the 0.8300 round number, the top of the old resistance zone
A reclaim of the ema20 at 0.8327 and the lower highs line near 0.8329 puts the 0.8337 session high back in view
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC Thu and the Fed speaker slate could materially shift this read
Lower highs off the NY session high, holding above the NY swing low.
The hot-CPI USD bid carried the pair from the Asian range near 0.8250 to a 0.8337 session high during NY hours. Since then it has printed lower highs, lost the 0.8329 broken floor and slipped under ema20 at 0.8328, with RSI(14) cooling from 74 to 42.7 and ATR(14) at 3.5 pips. The rollover spike swept the 0.8319 swing low and was reclaimed, and ema50 at 0.8318 sits just below.
Support: 0.83189, 0.83178, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83283, 0.8329, 0.83374
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8319 swing low and ema50 at 0.8318 breaks the NY higher-low and opens the 0.8300 psych zone
Reclaim of ema20 and the 0.8329 broken floor would put the 0.8337 session high back in play
A move through the lower-highs trendline from the session high would end the pullback read
Thin Asia session ahead; Thu jobless claims 13:30 UTC and the Fed speaker slate could materially shift this read
Post-rally range below session high, holding above ema50.
Hot US CPI follow-through drove a higher-high chain from the 0.8250 Asian range through London. NY broke the 0.8300 breakout level and topped at the 0.8337 session high. Since then price has ranged below that high, with RSI(14) cooling from 79.8 to 52.3 and ATR(14) compressing to 3.3 pips; the rollover gap spike tagged the 0.8318 NY swing low and was bought back to sit just under ema20.
Support: 0.83184, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83288, 0.83374
What it said to watch
M15 close back above ema20 at 0.8329 and through the 0.8337 session high resumes the higher-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.8318 swing low (NY pullback and rollover low) exposes the 0.8300 breakout level
Loss of the 0.8300–0.8315 zone would undercut the post-CPI breakout read
Thursday's Fed-speak slate and 13:30 UTC jobless claims could materially shift this read
22:31 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooled into late NY · RSI 50 · price 0.83274
Higher lows intact; pullback from session high, sitting near 50% of afternoon leg.
USD/CHF broke the 0.8245–0.8273 Asian range in London and cleared 0.8300 into NY on the post-CPI dollar bid, peaking at the 0.8337 session high. Price has since drifted below the ema20 at 0.8329, about halfway back through the afternoon leg, as RSI(14) cooled from 80 to 50. The gap lower at rollover wicked to 0.8318 and drew a rejection at the afternoon swing low.
Support: 0.83189, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83289, 0.83374
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8319 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the 0.8300 round number in play
Reclaim of the ema20 at 0.8329 points back toward the 0.8337 session high
ATR at 3.4 pips, compressed into the Asia session; thin rollover liquidity can distort wicks
Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims and the Fed-speaker slate could materially shift this read
22:16 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back after NY high · RSI 45 · price 0.83249
Lower highs since 0.8337 session high, below ema20.
The post-CPI USD bid carried USD/CHF from the 0.8245 day low to a 0.8337 session high during NY hours. Since then a lower-highs drift and a thin rollover wick to 0.8318 have pushed price below the ema20 at 0.8329, with RSI(14) cooling to 45 from 79. The rollover low and the ema50 at 0.8317, near the 23.6% fib of the rally, sit just beneath.
Support: 0.83184, 0.83167, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83291, 0.83374
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the ema20 at 0.8329 and the lower-highs line puts the 0.8337 session high back in play
Failure to hold the rollover low and ema50 near 0.8317 exposes the 0.8300 psych level, the top of the 0.8300–0.8315 breakout zone
Rollover spreads around 22:00 UTC distort bar ranges; the 0.8318 wick may not reflect real two-way trade
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fed-speaker slate could materially shift this read
The hot-CPI dollar bid carried USD/CHF from the 0.8245 Asian low through the 0.8300 breakout level in the first hour of NY, topping at the 0.8337 session high. Since then it has held a tight 0.8329–0.8337 band just above ema20 (0.8330). RSI(14) has cooled from 82.7 to 63.3 and ATR has compressed to 2.9 pips into the post-NY lull.
Support: 0.83288, 0.83189, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83374, 0.8350
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8329 late-NY low and ema20 puts the 0.8319 pullback low in play
Failure to hold 0.8319 opens a retest of the 0.8300 breakout level, near the 23.6–38.2% zone of the session rally fib
Close above the 0.8337 session high resumes the uptrend, with 0.8350 round number next
Thursday 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fed-speak slate could materially shift this read
London cleared the Asian range top near 0.8273, and NY extended through the 0.8300 breakout zone on the hot-CPI dollar bid, printing a session high at 0.8337. Since then price has held a 0.8329–0.8337 band after NY close, sitting on the ema20 with RSI(14) cooled from 82.7 to 67 and ATR compressing to 3 pips. A rising-lows line from the 0.8319 swing low is intact.
Support: 0.83293, 0.83189, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83374, 0.8382
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8337 session high resumes the NY breakout leg toward the 0.8382 upside ref
Break below the ema20 and the rising-lows line exposes the 0.8319 swing low
Loss of the 0.8300 breakout level turns the move into a false break
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fed-speaker slate could materially shift this read
The CPI-driven USD bid carried the pair through 0.8300 in the first hour of NY. A higher low formed at the 0.8319 swing low before price set a session high at 0.8337. Late NY has compressed into a tight 0.8329–0.8337 range, holding just above the ema20 near the range low, with RSI(14) easing from 82.7 to 67 and ATR down to 3.1 pips.
Support: 0.83288, 0.83189, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83374
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8329 range low and ema20 exposes the 0.8319 swing low.
Failure at 0.8319 leaves the 0.8300 round number in play, close to the 50% retracement of the London-NY leg.
Close above the 0.8337 session high ends the consolidation and resumes the London-NY leg higher.
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fed-speaker slate could materially shift this read.
21:01 UTC
Uptrend, pausing near highs · RSI 65 · price 0.83315
HH/HL chain through London and NY, now a tight range after the session high.
London broke the Asian range high at 0.8273 and NY extended the post-CPI USD bid through the 0.8300 round number to a 0.8337 session high. Since then price has compressed in a 0.8329–0.8337 band just above ema20 (0.83285), with RSI(14) cooling from 82.7 to 64.8 and ATR down to 3.2 pips. The NY leg fib's 50% sits near the 0.8319 swing low.
Support: 0.83288, 0.83189, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83374
What it said to watch
A close back below the 0.8329 range low and ema20 exposes the 0.8319 swing low and NY leg fib 50%
Loss of the 0.8300 round number would undo the breakout through the digest's 0.8300–0.8315 resistance zone
A close above the 0.8337 session high resumes the HH chain
Thu US jobless claims and a heavy Fed-speak slate could reprice Dec hike odds and shift this read
HH/HL chain from Asia, late-NY consolidation below the session high.
Pushes at the London and NY opens broke the 0.8245–0.8263 Asian range and the 0.8300 round number, topping at the 0.8337 session high as USD extended its post-CPI run. Late NY has stalled into a tight consolidation above the late NY low at 0.8329 and the rising trendline from the 0.8319 swing low. Price holds above both EMAs, RSI(14) has cooled from 82.7 to 62.9 and ATR has compressed to 3.3 pips.
Support: 0.83288, 0.83189, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83374
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8337 session high resumes the HH chain; 0.8382 is the next cited level
Break of the late NY low at 0.8329 and the rising trendline exposes the 0.8319 swing low
Loss of the 0.8300 round number would unwind the NY breakout and reopen the 0.8300–0.8315 zone
Thu 13:30 UTC Jobless Claims and the Fed-speak slate after it could materially shift this read
Higher lows intact; pullback from session high into ema20.
The post-CPI USD bid carried the pair through the 0.8300–0.8315 zone during NY hours to a session high at 0.8337. Price has since eased back onto the ema20 at 0.8328, with RSI(14) cooling from 82.7 to 62.3 and ATR(14) compressing to 3.4 pips into the late NY lull. The 0.8319 swing low is the higher low holding the sequence together.
Support: 0.8328, 0.83189, 0.83123
Resistance: 0.83374
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8319 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the ema50 at 0.8312, inside the 0.8300–0.8315 zone
Break above the 0.8337 session high resumes the NY leg
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fed-speak slate from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
20:16 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after NY high · RSI 61 · price 0.8329
HH/HL chain intact, lower highs since 0.8337 session high.
The post-CPI dollar bid carried USD/CHF through the 0.8300 breakout area around the London-NY transition and on to a 0.8337 session high. Since then, a tight flag of lower highs has pulled price back to just above the ema20 at 0.8328, near the 50% of the 0.8319–0.8337 leg. RSI(14) has cooled to 60.8 from 82.7 and ATR(14) has compressed to 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.83278, 0.83189, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83316, 0.83374
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8319 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.8300 breakout area
Close above the 0.8332 lower high and then the 0.8337 session high ends the flag
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed speakers incl. Williams 23:30 UTC could shift this read
USD/CHF cleared the Asian range at the London open and extended through 0.8300 in NY on the post-CPI dollar bid, setting a session high at 0.8337. After London close it has printed a run of lower highs from 0.8335 back to the 0.8330 area, sitting just above the ema20 at 0.8328, with RSI(14) cooled from 82.7 to 65.5 and ATR compressed to 3.7 pips.
Support: 0.83277, 0.83189, 0.83109
Resistance: 0.83354, 0.83374
What it said to watch
M15 close below the ema20 at 0.8328 exposes the 15:45 UTC swing low at 0.8319, near the 38.2–50% fib of the NY leg
Failure to hold the swing low at 0.8319 shifts focus to the ema50 at 0.8311 and breaks the intraday higher-low chain
Close above the 0.8335 lower high, then the 0.8337 session high, resumes the uptrend
US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers on 25bp vs 50bp could materially shift this read
19:46 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling late NY · RSI 65 · price 0.83302
London and NY breakout above Asian range, now consolidating below session high.
London broke the Asian range top near 0.8273. The first hour of NY then carried price through 0.8300 as hot-CPI Fed hike pricing kept USD bid, running to a 0.83374 session high. Late NY is a shallow consolidation just above the ema20 at 0.83274, with RSI(14) cooled from the low 80s to 65 and ATR compressing to 3.8 pips. The NY leg fib 38.2% sits near 0.8321.
Support: 0.83274, 0.83189, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83374
What it said to watch
M15 close below the ema20 at 0.83274 exposes the 0.83189 swing low and the NY leg fib 38.2%–50% zone (0.8321–0.8316)
Failure to hold the 0.8300 psych level, the breakout point, undercuts the CPI breakout read
Close above the 0.83374 session high resumes the HH chain
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed speakers incl. Williams 23:30 UTC could shift Dec hike pricing and this read
HH/HL chain from Asia, now flat below session high.
USDCHF climbed out of the Asian range through London and NY as the post-CPI USD bid extended, printing a session high at 0.83374 in late NY. Price is now holding a tight band just above the 0.8330 floor and the ema20 at 0.83271. RSI(14) has cooled from 88 to 66 and ATR(14) has compressed to 3.9 pips after London close.
Support: 0.8330, 0.83271, 0.83189
Resistance: 0.83374
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8330 floor exposes the ema20 at 0.83271, then the 0.83189 swing low near the 38.2% of the NY leg fib
Break of the 0.83374 session high resumes the higher-high chain
Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims and the Fed-speaker slate could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain through NY, now a tight range below the session high.
The post-CPI dollar bid carried USD/CHF from 0.8295 at the NY open to a 0.8337 session high. Since London close it has compressed in a 7-pip range above the 0.8331 range low. RSI(14) cooled from 88 to 72.3 and printed a lower high against the new price high, and ATR has contracted to 4 pips.
Support: 0.83306, 0.83267, 0.83189
Resistance: 0.83374, 0.8340
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8337 session high, and through the 0.8340 psych level, extends the HH chain
Failure to hold the 0.8331 range low exposes the ema20 at 0.8327, then the 0.8319 swing low near the 38.2% fib
Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims and the Fed-speaker slate could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from London open low, late-NY pause below session high.
Hot-CPI follow-through carried USD/CHF from the 0.8262 London open low through the 0.8300–0.8315 zone. Price then made a session high at 0.8337 after London close, and the HH/HL chain is intact above the 0.8319 pullback low and the 0.8331 swing low. RSI(14) at 72.9 has cooled from 88 and printed a lower high against the new price high (bearish divergence), while ATR compresses to 4.1 pips.
Support: 0.83306, 0.83252, 0.83189
Resistance: 0.83374, 0.8382
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.8331 swing low and rising support brings the ema20 at 0.8325 into play
Break of the 0.8319 pullback low (23.6% fib) ends the HH/HL chain
Close above the 0.8337 session high reopens the next level at 0.8382
US jobless claims and Fed speakers Thu (Williams 23:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
NY higher lows intact; breakout above 0.8300–0.8315 zone holding.
London broke above the Asian range top at 0.8273, and NY extended the move on the hot-CPI USD bid. Price cleared the 0.8300–0.8315 zone and printed a session high at 0.83374, with a 0.83189 swing low left on the 15:45 UTC dip and a micro low at 0.83306 since. RSI(14) has cooled from 88 to 74.5 and ATR is compressing to 4.3 pips as price holds above a rising ema20 at 0.83244, keeping the NY higher lows trendline intact into the Asia handover.
Support: 0.83306, 0.83244, 0.83189
Resistance: 0.83374, 0.8340
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.83374 session high and the 0.8400 round number extends the NY higher-highs chain
Loss of the 0.83306 micro low breaks the NY higher lows trendline and puts the ema20 at 0.83244 in play
Close below the 0.83189 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence back toward the 0.8300–0.8315 zone
US jobless claims and Fed speakers (Thu 13:30 UTC onward) could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows from the Asian range; late-NY drift below the session high.
USD/CHF climbed out of the 0.8245–0.8261 Asian range through London, then broke the 0.8300 round number after the NY open, with USD still bid on the hot US CPI and Fed-hike pricing. The late-NY session high at 0.8337 printed with RSI(14) at 82.7, below its earlier 88 peak, a bearish divergence. RSI now sits at 74, overbought, while ATR compresses to 4.3 pips and price holds above the 0.8330 prior high and the ema20.
Support: 0.8330, 0.83235, 0.83189
Resistance: 0.83374
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8330 prior high puts a retest of the 0.8300 round number breakout in play
Failure to hold the 0.8319 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the 38.2% of the NY rally fib
M15 close above the 0.8337 session high voids the bearish divergence read
Thu jobless claims (13:30 UTC) and Fed speakers on 25 vs 50bp could shift USD pricing
HH/HL chain after break of the 0.8300-0.8315 band.
USD/CHF extended its post-CPI run in NY hours, clearing the London high near 0.8296 and the 0.8300-0.8315 resistance band. After London close it pushed past the 0.8330 prior high to a 0.8337 session high. RSI(14) is overbought at 79.8 but under its 88 peak despite the higher price high, a bearish divergence, and ATR(14) has eased to 4.4 pips.
Support: 0.8330, 0.83225, 0.83189
Resistance: 0.83374, 0.8350, 0.8382
What it said to watch
Holding the 0.8330 prior high keeps the breakout intact; a slip back below 0.8300 would flag a false break of the resistance band
Loss of the rising line and the 0.8319 swing low breaks the HL chain. That area sits near the ema20 at 0.8323 and the breakout leg fib 38.2%
A close above the 0.8337 session high and the 0.8350 round number opens the next level at 0.8382
Thu jobless claims and Fed speakers on 25 vs 50bp could materially shift this read
The London-NY leg from 0.8262 carried through the 0.8300–0.8315 resistance band after hot US CPI kept Fed hike odds high. It set a session high at 0.8337 after London close. RSI(14) at 79.3 is overbought but printed lower than its 88 peak on that new high, a bearish divergence. The swing low at 0.8319, with ema20 at 0.8321, sits on the rising trendline as the first support. ATR(14) is 4.5 pips.
Support: 0.83212, 0.83189, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83366, 0.8382
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8319 swing low breaks the HL chain and the rising trendline
A return below the 0.8300 round number would mark the breakout as a false break
Close above the 0.8337 session high opens the next resist at 0.8382
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed speakers on 25 vs 50bp could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since the London open; NY broke above 0.8300–0.8315.
USD/CHF pushed through the 0.8300–0.8315 zone early in NY hours as hot US CPI kept Fed hike pricing firm. It held a swing low at 0.83189, just under the ema20 at 0.83198, and printed a fresh session high at 0.83366 late in NY. RSI(14) at 79.3 is overbought but below its 88.2 peak while price made that higher high, a bearish rsi divergence, with the prior high at 0.83295 as first support.
Support: 0.83295, 0.83189, 0.83002
Resistance: 0.83366, 0.8350
What it said to watch
Hold of the 0.83295 prior high keeps the breakout retest intact; a close back below it puts the swing low and ema20 near 0.8319–0.8320 in play
Close below the 0.83189 swing low and the rising support line breaks the HL chain
Failure to hold the ema50 near 0.8300 would undo the 0.8300–0.8315 breakout
Close above the 0.83366 session high opens the 0.8350 round number
Rally fib: the 38.2% retracement sits near 0.8308, inside the broken 0.8300–0.8315 zone
Thursday's US jobless claims and Fed speaker slate (Daly, Williams) could materially shift this read
17:16 UTC
Uptrend, RSI stretched · RSI 83 · price 0.83357
HH/HL chain from the Asian range; fresh session high late in NY hours.
The post-CPI dollar bid carried USD/CHF out of the Asian range at the London open and through the 0.8300–0.8315 zone, with a fresh session high at 0.8336 late in NY hours. RSI(14) at 82.7 sits below its 88.2 peak at the 0.8330 prior high, a bearish divergence, while ATR compresses to 4.8 pips. The 15:30 UTC swing low at 0.8319 held, with ema20 just beneath.
Support: 0.83295, 0.83189, 0.83183
Resistance: 0.8336, 0.8350, 0.8382
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8330 prior high puts price back inside the afternoon range
Break of the 0.8319 swing low and ema20 ends the HH/HL chain and the rising trendline
Acceptance above the 0.8350 round number extends the trend toward the 0.8382 cited level
No scheduled data in the next 8h; Thursday's 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed slate are the next risk
16:46 UTC
Uptrend, stretched near highs · RSI 79 · price 0.83284
Higher highs and higher lows; NY broke 0.8300 and is retesting the session high.
USD/CHF extended the post-CPI dollar rally. London cleared the Asian range top near 0.8273 and stalled at the London high of 0.8299, then the NY leg broke 0.8300 to a session high at 0.8330. Price is back at that high after a shallow dip to the 0.8319 pullback low; RSI(14) is overbought at 78.8 but below its 88 peak, and ATR is easing to 4.8 pips.
Support: 0.83189, 0.83151, 0.82989
Resistance: 0.83295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8330 session high extends the higher-high chain and clears the RSI divergence
A break of the 0.8319 pullback low and the rising trendline exposes ema20 at 0.8315, then the London high at 0.8299
Digest flags the move as stretched after +1% in two days; Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fedspeak are the next US catalysts
Higher highs and higher lows; shallow pullback after NY breakout.
USD/CHF cleared the Asian range high in London and then broke through the 0.8300 round number in the first hour of NY on post-CPI dollar demand, printing a session high at 0.83295. The late-NY pullback held at 0.83189, above the ema20 at 0.83136, with RSI(14) at 77.5, off its 88 peak, and ATR easing to 4.9 pips.
Support: 0.83189, 0.83136, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83295
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.83189 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain along the NY trendline and exposes the ema20 at 0.83136, then the 0.8300 round number.
A push through the 0.83295 session high with RSI failing to exceed its 88 peak would set up bearish RSI divergence.
Losing 0.8300 puts price back inside the 0.8300–0.8315 band the digest flags as resistance.
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fedspeak slate could shift December hike pricing and this read.
HH/HL chain from Asian low; NY breakout above 0.8300, shallow pullback holding.
The post-CPI USD bid carried USD/CHF out of the 0.8245–0.8265 Asian range through London. The NY open breakout cleared the psych 0.8300 and the cited 0.8300–0.8315 zone, reaching a session high at 0.83295. RSI(14) has cooled from 88 to 76.5. The pullback low at 0.83189 has held above the 23.6% retracement of the London-NY rally, with price above ema20 after London close.
Support: 0.83189, 0.83122, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83295
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.83189 pullback low exposes ema20 at 0.83122, then the psych 0.8300 breakout level
Failure to reclaim the 0.83295 session high keeps the late-NY consolidation in play
A dip toward the 38.2% retracement near 0.8304 would test the breakout zone
Thu US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and heavy Fedspeak could materially shift this read
15:46 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling after NY spike · RSI 74 · price 0.83222
Higher highs and higher lows since London; first pullback from the session high.
USD/CHF broke through the 0.8300–0.8315 resistance zone into the NY open as the CPI-driven USD bid extended, topping at a session high of 0.83295. Price has since stalled and pulled back to 0.8321, the pullback low. RSI(14) has cooled from 88 to 73.5 and price still holds above ema20 at 0.83095. The 38.2% fib of the NY leg sits near 0.8317, just above the 0.8315 breakout level.
Support: 0.83206, 0.8315, 0.83095
Resistance: 0.83295
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 0.8315 breakout puts the move through the 0.8300–0.8315 zone in question
Clearance of the 0.83295 session high resumes the higher-high chain
Loss of ema20 at 0.83095 would also mean a full retrace of the NY leg into the 0.8300 area
No US data left today, so Fed speaker or Middle East headlines are the main risk to this read
HH/HL chain from London low; NY breakout above 0.8315 now pausing.
USD/CHF extended the CPI-driven USD bid through London and broke the 0.8300–0.8315 resistance zone during the London-NY transition, printing a session high at 0.83295. RSI(14) has cooled from 88 to 79.8 as price stalls just above the 0.8323 pullback low, still well above the ema20 at 0.8308.
Support: 0.8323, 0.8315, 0.83084
Resistance: 0.83295
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8323 pullback low turns the pause into a deeper retrace toward the 0.8315 zone top
0.8315 zone top lines up with the 38.2% fib of the NY leg; a break below puts the ema20 at 0.8308 in play
Clearance of the 0.83295 session high resumes the breakout, with RSI already near 80
No scheduled US or Swiss data in the window; Fed or Middle East headlines could shift this read
15:16 UTC
Uptrend, overbought and pausing · RSI 80 · price 0.83254
HH/HL chain since London open, breakout above 0.8300–0.8315.
The CPI-driven USD bid carried USD/CHF through the 0.8300–0.8315 resistance zone at the NY open. That leg set a 0.8330 session high, and RSI(14) has cooled from 88 to 80 but is still overbought. The first pullback held at 0.8323, with the broken zone and the ema20 at 0.8307 sitting below.
Support: 0.8323, 0.8315, 0.83067
Resistance: 0.83295, 0.8350
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.8315 broken zone would turn the breakout into a false break.
Losing the ema20 at 0.8307 and the intraday trendline from the London low would end the HH/HL chain; 38.2% of the London-NY leg sits near 0.8304.
Clearing the 0.8330 session high resumes the leg toward the 0.8350 round number; ATR(14) is expanding at 5.4 pips.
Fed speaker headlines or Middle East re-escalation could snap CHF back; no top-tier data is due in the window.
Higher highs and higher lows since London open; NY open broke above 0.8300.
London broke above the Asian range high near 0.8273, and the NY open carried the London-NY leg through the 0.8300–0.8315 resistance zone to a session high at 0.8329. The move extends the USD bid that followed the hot US CPI. RSI(14) at 88 is extreme against a 5.3-pip ATR(14), and price sits well clear of the ema20 at 0.8303 and the rising support line.
Support: 0.8315, 0.83026, 0.8285
Resistance: 0.83289, 0.8350
What it said to watch
Holding above the zone top at 0.8315 keeps the breakout read; an M15 close back below it would turn it into a false break
A close below the ema20 at 0.8303 and the rising support line would be the first loss of intraday structure, with the ema50 at 0.8285 next
A clean push through the 0.8329 session high opens the 0.8350 round number
No scheduled US or Swiss data in the next 8h, so Fed headlines and Middle East news are the swing factors
HH/HL chain from London open; NY broke above 0.8300–0.8315 zone.
The post-CPI USD bid carried a steady London climb off the 0.8262 open low into an NY-session acceleration. Price cleared the 0.8300–0.8315 resistance zone and set a 0.8328 session high. RSI(14) at 88 is extreme, ema20 sits at 0.8300 near the round number with ema50 at 0.8283 below, and ATR is 5.3 pips.
Support: 0.8316, 0.82999, 0.82833
Resistance: 0.83284, 0.8350
What it said to watch
A pullback that holds the 0.8316 broken res keeps the breakout intact; an M15 close back below it reads as a false break
Loss of ema20 at 0.8300 and the 38.2% fib of the London-NY leg near 0.8303 exposes ema50 at 0.8283
An M15 close above the 0.8328 session high leaves the 0.8350 round number as the next reference
A break of the rising trendline from the 0.8262 London-open low ends the HH/HL chain
No data due in the next 8h; Fed speaker or Middle East headlines could quickly unwind an RSI-88 extension
Higher highs and higher lows since the Asian low; NY open breakout above 0.8300.
USD/CHF broke the 0.8300 round number around the NY open and cleared the 0.8315 zone top, printing a session high at 0.8324 as the post-CPI USD bid and fading CHF haven demand carried over. RSI(14) at 86.6 is stretched and ATR is expanding to 5.2 pips; the rising trendline from the London low sits well below, with the ema20 at 0.8297 underneath.
Support: 0.8315, 0.8300, 0.82971
Resistance: 0.83239
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8315 zone top puts the breakout into a retest of the 0.8300 round number
Failure to hold 0.8300 and the ema20 at 0.8297 would mark the move as a false break
Rejection at the 0.8324 session high with RSI rolling off 86.6 signals the extension is stalling
A close below the rising trendline from the London low ends the intraday higher-low chain
Thu US jobless claims and Fed speakers (Hammack, Williams, Daly) could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from the Asian range, now above the 0.8300–0.8315 zone.
USD/CHF has carried the post-CPI USD bid from a 0.8256 low just before London into the NY open, with a steady higher-low chain along the rising support. It has cleared the 0.8300–0.8315 zone and printed a session high at 0.8321. RSI(14) at 84.2 is stretched, while ATR(14) is about 5 pips.
Support: 0.8315, 0.8300, 0.82945
Resistance: 0.83206, 0.8350
What it said to watch
A return below the 0.8315 zone top would put the NY-open breakout at risk of a false break.
An M15 close back under the 0.8300 round number and the rising support breaks the HL chain.
The ema20 at 0.82945 sits near the 38.2% level of the rally fib and is the first deeper pullback area.
A hold above the session high at 0.8321 leaves the 0.8350 psych level as the next reference.
With RSI above 80 in a thin-data window, Fed headlines can trigger a sharp mean-reversion; claims and Fedspeak arrive Thu 13:30 UTC.
London higher-low chain; first hour of NY broke 0.8300 into resistance.
The post-CPI USD bid carried London out of the 0.8245–0.8273 Asian range in steady higher lows along the london trend. In the first hour of NY, price cleared the 0.8299 prior high and pushed into the 0.8300–0.8315 resistance band, to a session high at 0.8308. RSI(14) at 80.5 is stretched, ATR is 4.6 pips, and ema20 at 0.8292 sits about 15 pips below.
Support: 0.82989, 0.82923, 0.82812
Resistance: 0.83084, 0.8315
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8299 prior high turns the 0.8300 breakout into a false break
Stall at the 0.8308 session high with RSI holding above 80 marks exhaustion risk inside the resistance band
M15 close above 0.8315 zone top clears the cited resistance band; 0.8382 is the next level referenced
Loss of the london trend and the 0.8281 swing low breaks the intraday higher-low chain
No scheduled US or Swiss data in the next 8h; Fed or Middle East headlines are the main swing risk to this read
13:31 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into NY open · RSI 81 · price 0.83072
HH/HL chain through London, fresh break above 0.8300.
London built a steady HH/HL chain from the 0.8262 low. The last closed bar broke the 0.8300 round number to a session high at 0.8308, with USD still bid on Fed-hike pricing after Tuesday's hot CPI. RSI(14) at 80.5 is stretched heading into the NY session, the 0.8300–0.8315 resist zone sits overhead, and the 38.2% fib of the London leg lines up with the ema20 at 0.8291.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82948, 0.82906
Resistance: 0.83081, 0.8315
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.8300 round number turns the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8295 swing low breaks the London HL chain
Rejection inside the 0.8300–0.8315 resist zone vs acceptance above the 0.8308 session high
RSI above 80 with ATR flat near 4.7 pips leaves room for a pullback toward ema20 / 38.2% fib
Middle East headlines are the main source of a sharp CHF haven reversal, with no data due in this window
Higher-low chain from London open, pressing session high under 0.8300.
London cleared the Asian range top near 0.8263 and the post-CPI high at 0.8268, then built a higher-low chain along the London trendline to a session high of 0.8299. The move follows USD strength on December Fed-hike repricing. RSI(14) has held in the 70s for most of the morning, ATR(14) has eased to 4.3 pips, and price sits just under the 0.8300 round number, the base of the 0.8300–0.8315 resistance zone (0.8315 zone top).
Support: 0.8292, 0.82887, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8315
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 0.8300 round number into the NY open would mark the first stall of the London leg; acceptance above opens the 0.8315 zone top
M15 close below the 0.8292 london base breaks the London trendline and exposes ema20 at 0.8289
Loss of the 0.8278 swing low, also the 38.2% of the rally fib, ends the higher-low chain
No scheduled US or Swiss data in the next 8h; Fed or Middle East headlines are the main event risk
HH/HL chain since the Asian range break; session high 0.8299 untested above.
The post-CPI USD bid carried on overnight. Price cleared the Asian range (0.8245–0.8263) just before London and has stepped higher to a session high at 0.8299, just shy of the 0.8300 round number, heading into the London-NY transition. RSI(14) at 71.1 is overbought but peaked below the 77.2 printed at 0.8287, a mild bearish divergence, while ATR has compressed to 4.4 pips.
Support: 0.8292, 0.82877, 0.8281
Resistance: 0.8299, 0.8300, 0.8315
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8300 round number brings the 0.8300–0.8315 res zone into play
Loss of the 0.8292 higher low and the rising support line exposes ema20 at 0.8288, then the 0.8281 swing low
A fresh RSI high above 74.9 on a break of the session high would cancel the divergence read
No US data scheduled today; Fed speakers and Middle East headlines during NY hours are the main swing risk for CHF
Higher highs and higher lows since London open, pressing 0.8300.
London broke the 0.8248–0.8263 Asian range top and cleared yesterday's post-CPI high at 0.8268, extending the hot-US-CPI dollar bid. The London leg has stacked higher lows, the latest at 0.8292, with price holding above the rising ema20 at 0.8287. Late in the London session, price sits just under the 0.8299 session high and the 0.8300 round number. RSI(14) at 74.9 is overbought but not extreme, and ATR(14) has eased to 4.4 pips.
Support: 0.82915, 0.82868, 0.82812
Resistance: 0.82986, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 0.8300 round number would leave the 0.8299 session high as a near-term cap
M15 close below the 0.8292 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes the ema20 at 0.8287
Loss of the 0.8281 swing low undercuts the London leg's 50% retracement area
NY open may extend or stall the move; no US events in the next 8h, Thu claims and Fed speakers next
12:31 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling · RSI 72 · price 0.8295
Higher lows through London, compressing under 0.8300.
The post-CPI USD bid carried through Asia. Price cleared the Asian range top near 0.8263 before London and built a higher-low chain to a 0.8296 session high. It is now compressing in a tight 0.8291–0.8296 range just under the 0.8300 round number late in London, and rising support is intact. RSI(14) at 72.3 is overbought but below its 77.2 peak despite the higher price, while ATR has eased to 4.4 pips.
Support: 0.82915, 0.82858, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.82962, 0.8300, 0.8315
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8300 round number brings the 0.8315 zone top into play.
A break of the 0.8291 range low and rising support exposes ema20 at 0.8286.
Loss of the 0.8278 swing low breaks the London higher-low chain, near the 38.2% of the Asia-London leg.
The NY open and Fed or rates headlines could shift this read; Thursday's jobless claims and Fed speakers are next.
London HH/HL chain from 0.8256, compressing under session high.
The post-CPI USD bid carried through London, with a higher-high/higher-low chain from 0.8256 to a 0.8296 session high. Price holds above the ema20 at 0.8285, but RSI(14) at 71.7 is below its 77.2 peak despite higher closes. ATR has eased to 4.5 pips as price compresses just under the 0.8300 round number late in London.
Support: 0.82915, 0.82848, 0.8278
Resistance: 0.82962, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8300 round number opens the 0.8300–0.8315 resistance zone
Failure to hold the 0.8292 swing low exposes the ema20 at 0.8285 and the London leg fib 38.2% near 0.8281
Break of the 0.8278 pullback low ends the London higher-low sequence
Rejection at the 0.8296 session high into NY open would confirm the bearish RSI divergence
No high-impact US data today; Thu jobless claims and Fedspeak could shift the read
Higher highs and higher lows since London open, compressing under session high.
The hot US CPI print extended into London. Price cleared the Asian range high at 0.8273 and built a higher-high, higher-low London leg to a session high at 0.82962, holding above both EMAs. RSI(14) at 72.7 is overbought but peaking below its 77.2 high from 08:15 UTC while price makes higher highs, and late-London bars are compressing on a 0.82915 micro low just under the 0.8300 round number.
Support: 0.82915, 0.82839, 0.82812
Resistance: 0.82962, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.82962 session high brings the 0.8300 round number and the 0.8300–0.8315 resistance zone into play
Close below the 0.82915 micro low points to the ema20 at 0.82839
Loss of the 0.8281 swing low, near the 38.2% of the London leg fib, breaks the higher-low chain
NY open with no high-impact US data today: bond-yield moves drive the next leg
11:46 UTC
Uptrend, RSI hot but momentum easing · RSI 71 · price 0.82927
HH/HL chain through London, above Asian range.
USD/CHF extended the post-CPI rally through London. It broke above the Asian high at 0.8263 and built a HH/HL chain to a session high at 0.82962, about 4 pips short of the 0.8300 round number. RSI(14) at 71.4 has eased from 77.2 despite higher highs, a mild bearish divergence, while price holds above both EMAs with ema20 at 0.82828.
Support: 0.82828, 0.82812, 0.8263
Resistance: 0.82962, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 0.8300 round number, base of the 0.8300–0.8315 band, would cap the London leg
M15 close below rising support near 0.8288 and the ema20 at 0.82828 breaks the HH/HL chain
Failure to hold the 0.82812 swing low opens a retrace toward the Asian high at 0.8263
No high-impact data today; Fed-pricing headlines in NY hours, then Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fedspeak
Higher highs and higher lows through London, above the Asian range.
London cleared the Asian range and yesterday's CPI-spike high at 0.8268, then built a higher-low chain at 0.8262, 0.8278 and the 0.8281 swing low into 0.8294 in late London. The move extends the post-CPI USD bid. RSI(14) at 73 is overbought and ATR(14) has expanded from 3.2 to 4.8 pips as price approaches the 0.8300 round number, the base of the 0.8300–0.8315 res zone.
Support: 0.82812, 0.8268, 0.82563
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8315
What it said to watch
0.8300 round number: area to watch for rejection or break into the 0.8315 res zone top
M15 close below the 0.8281 swing low, where ema20 also sits, breaks the higher-low chain and London trend line
Return below the 0.8268 cpi high would mark the London breakout as a false break
0.8256 asian low is the next reference below and the base of the London leg fib
No high-impact data today; Thursday's jobless claims and heavy Fedspeak could shift the read
HH/HL chain through London, pressing session high.
The bid that followed yesterday's hot US CPI carried into London: price cleared the Asian high at 0.8273 off a 0.8262 London low and stepped up in higher lows to a 0.8294 session high, 6 pips under the 0.8300 round number. RSI(14) at 72.8 is overbought but below the 77.2 peak from the 08:15 UTC push, a bearish divergence, while ATR has expanded to 4.9 pips and the 0.8281 swing low sits just above ema20.
Support: 0.82812, 0.82734, 0.82622
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8315
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8281 swing low and ema20 breaks the London higher-low chain and the HL line
Reaction at the 0.8300 round number, the base of the 0.8300–0.8315 resistance zone
A fade back into the Asian high at 0.8273 puts the 50% fib of the asia-london rally in play
No scheduled data in the next 8h; Fed-pricing headlines can still move this read
10:45 UTC
Uptrend, higher-low chain through London · RSI 69 · price 0.82892
Asian range broken higher, prior high reclaimed, HH/HL sequence.
London broke the 0.8248–0.8263 Asian range and cleared the post-CPI prior high at 0.8268, stepping up in a higher-low chain to a 0.8293 session high where the latest bar left an upper-wick rejection. Hot US CPI and December Fed-hike pricing keep USD bid. RSI(14) at 69 sits just below overbought, ATR(14) has expanded to 5 pips, and price holds above both EMAs.
Support: 0.82812, 0.82781, 0.8268
Resistance: 0.82929, 0.8300
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.8293 session high opens the 0.8300 psych level and the 0.8300–0.8315 resistance band.
Failure to hold the 0.8281 higher low breaks the London trendline and exposes ema20 at 0.8278.
A move back below the 0.8268 prior high would point to a retracement of the Asia low to session high leg rather than continuation.
There is no high-impact US data before Thursday's jobless claims. Fed headlines remain the main swing factor.
Higher lows through London; session high rejected.
Dollar strength after yesterday's hot US CPI carried through. London cleared the Asian range high at 0.8263 and the CPI-day prior high at 0.8268, and has printed higher lows up to the 0.8281 London HL. The latest bar wicked to a 0.8293 session high and was rejected, with RSI(14) at 66.7 making a lower peak than the 77.2 seen on the earlier 0.8287 push.
Support: 0.8281, 0.8277, 0.8268
Resistance: 0.8293, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8281 london hl breaks the higher-low chain and exposes ema20 at 0.8277, then the prior high at 0.8268
A close above the 0.8293 session high opens the 0.8300 round number, the base of the 0.8300–0.8315 resistance band
Bearish RSI divergence at the session high would be negated by a fresh high with RSI back above 70
No high-impact US or CHF data today; Thursday's jobless claims and Fedspeak are the next scheduled catalysts
London HH/HL chain above the Asian range, highs flattening near 0.8288.
London broke the 0.8273 Asia high and yesterday's post-CPI peak at 0.8268, with USD holding its hot-CPI gains, and ran to a 0.8288 session high. Highs are now flattening while RSI(14) prints lower peaks from 77.2 to 66.4, a bearish divergence. The higher low at 0.8281 and the London trendline are still intact, with price above both EMAs.
Support: 0.82812, 0.82761, 0.82734
Resistance: 0.82884, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8281 higher low and the London trendline breaks the HH/HL chain, exposing ema20 at 0.8276 and the 0.8273 Asia high (38.2% fib zone)
Acceptance above the 0.8288 session high opens the 0.8300 round number, the base of the 0.8300–0.8315 resistance band
No high-impact data today; Thu Fedspeak and Fri core PPI are the next USD event risk
Higher highs and higher lows since the London low, above the Asian range.
London broke above the Asian range top near 0.8273 and cleared the post-CPI high at 0.8268. It has set higher lows at the 0.8262 London low and the 0.8278 swing low, with the hot US CPI and firmer Fed hike odds keeping USD bid against CHF. The session high at 0.8288 came with RSI(14) at 71.5, below its 77 reading on the prior push, a mild bearish divergence, while ATR has expanded to 4.5 pips.
Support: 0.8278, 0.82744, 0.82622
Resistance: 0.82879, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8278 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising line from the London low, exposing the ema20 near 0.8274
Clearance of the 0.8288 session high puts the 0.8300 round number in play
Loss of the 0.8262 London low invalidates the Asian range breakout and returns price to the 0.8268 post-CPI high area
No high-impact US data today; Fedspeak headlines are the main event risk to this read
09:30 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 71 · price 0.82861
Higher lows through London, triple test of 0.8287.
London extended the post-CPI USD bid. The rally from 0.8245 cleared the Asian high at 0.8273, which sits with the rising ema20, and Tuesday's 0.8268 post-CPI high. Price is now testing the 0.8287 session high for a third time, with RSI(14) at 71.3 and ATR expanding to 4.6 pips. The 08:45 UTC swing low at 0.8278 holds above the rising trendline from the 0.8262 London low.
Support: 0.8278, 0.82734, 0.82622
Resistance: 0.82867, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8287 session high exposes the 0.8300 round number
Third rejection at 0.8287 with a close below the 0.8278 swing low breaks the trendline and higher-low chain
Loss of the 0.8262 London low unwinds the London leg back into the Asian range
No high-impact US data today; NY open flow and Fedspeak headlines are the main intraday risk
Mid-London, the post-CPI USD bid extended through the Asian range high at 0.8273 and Tuesday's 0.8268 CPI-day high to a session high at 0.8287. RSI(14) has eased to 68 from 77. The 0.8278 swing low held above ema20 at 0.8272, and ATR has expanded to 4.6 pips from about 3.
Support: 0.8278, 0.82718, 0.82622
Resistance: 0.82866, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.8287 session high puts the 0.8300 round number in play
M15 close below the 0.8278 swing low exposes ema20 and the Asian high near 0.8272, the 38.2% of the asia-london leg
Loss of the rising support line and the 0.8262 london low invalidates the HH/HL read
No high-impact US data today; Thursday Fedspeak and Friday PPI are the next USD catalysts
08:45 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling off the high · RSI 68 · price 0.82809
Higher lows since the 0.8245 late-NY low; Asia broke the post-CPI high, London extended.
London extended the Asia break of yesterday's 0.8268 post-CPI high to a 0.8287 session high, with hot US CPI and December Fed-hike repricing keeping USD bid against CHF. RSI(14) eased to 67.6 from 77.2 as the last bar closed off the high. ATR has expanded to 4.7 pips. The rising trendline from the 0.8256 Asia low through the 0.8262 london low is intact, and the 50% of the Asia-London leg sits near 0.8266.
Support: 0.82734, 0.82696, 0.82622
Resistance: 0.82866, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8273 asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the ema20 at 0.8270, then the 0.8262 london low, would break the rising trendline and the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 0.8287 session high exposes the 0.8300 round number
No US data today; Fedspeak headlines can still jolt the USD bid through NY hours
08:30 UTC
Uptrend, extended into London · RSI 77 · price 0.82866
Higher lows from the Asian low; London broke above the post-CPI high.
The hot US CPI bid is extending in early London. Price cleared the 0.8268 post-CPI prior high and the 0.8273 early high, printing a session high at 0.8287 with RSI(14) overbought at 77 and ATR widening to 4.6 pips. The 0.8300 round number sits 13 pips overhead. The broken prior high and the ema20 (0.8268) now form the first retest zone, with the london low at 0.8262 at the base of the London leg, near the rising trendline.
Support: 0.82734, 0.82683, 0.82622
Resistance: 0.82867, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Rejection or break at the 0.8300 round number, cited in the macro read as the next USD/CHF level
An M15 close back below the 0.8273 early high and the ema20 at 0.8268 would mark a false break of the prior high
Failure to hold the 0.8262 london low and the rising trendline ends the higher-low chain from the Asian low
Hawkish or dovish Fedspeak headlines on 25bp vs 50bp December pricing could shift this read; no USD/CHF data scheduled in the next 8h
08:16 UTC
Uptrend, accelerating into London open · RSI 75 · price 0.82822
Breakout above post-CPI high, higher lows intact.
The post-CPI USD bid carried into London open. Price cleared the 0.8268 CPI-day high and the 0.8273 break level to print a 0.8283 session high. RSI(14) is overbought at 74.5 and ATR is widening to 4.5 pips, with higher lows at 0.8256 and the 0.8262 swing low forming the rising trendline and ema20 trailing at 0.8266.
Support: 0.82734, 0.82664, 0.82622
Resistance: 0.82829, 0.8300
What it said to watch
A return below the 0.8273 break level would turn the breakout into a false break.
An M15 close below the 0.8262 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain.
The 0.8300 round number is the next resistance above the session high, an area to watch for rejection or break with RSI already above 70.
08:01 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows into London · RSI 68 · price 0.82779
Broke Asian range and prior high, retest held, new session high.
Hot US CPI keeps the USD bid. USD/CHF cleared the 0.8263 Asian range high and Tuesday's 0.8268 prior high, then the London open dip to 0.8262 held on the rising trendline. Price is now pressing the 0.8280 round number, with RSI(14) at 68.3 and ATR(14) expanding to 4 pips, both EMAs rising below price.
Support: 0.8268, 0.82648, 0.82563
Resistance: 0.8280, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Close back below the 0.8268 prior high and the ema20 near 0.8265 turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the rising trendline and the 0.8256 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 0.8280 round number puts the 0.8300 psych level in view
US Jobless Claims and Fedspeak Thu, then PPI Fri, could materially shift 50bp pricing and this read
Asian range break higher, retest held, fresh session high.
Price broke above the Asian range top at 0.8263 before London, and the London-open retest low at 0.8262 held. It has since printed a session high at 0.8275, above yesterday's post-CPI prior high at 0.8268, as the hot US CPI keeps the USD bid. RSI(14) at 67.3 sits below its 76.2 reading at the 0.8273 pre-London peak, a bearish divergence into the new high, while ATR(14) has expanded to 4 pips.
Support: 0.8268, 0.8262, 0.82562
Resistance: 0.82749, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8268 prior high puts the breakout under question
Loss of the 0.8262 retest low and the rising lows trendline returns price to the Asian range
Close below the ema50 at 0.8256 breaks the intraday uptrend structure
Clearing the 0.8275 session high opens the 0.8300 round number
Thu Jobless Claims and the late Fedspeak slate, then Fri PPI, could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
Uptrend, early London pullback held · RSI 65 · price 0.82729
Higher lows since the daily open; Asian range broken higher, prior NY high retested.
The CPI-driven USD bid carried into late Asia. A rally leg off the post-rollover low broke the 0.8250–0.8263 Asian range and the 0.8268 prior high to a 0.8273 session high, with RSI(14) reaching 76.2 before cooling. The first London pullback found buyers at 0.8262, just above the ema20 and the line of rising lows, and price is back pressing the session high with ATR(14) expanding to 3.9 pips.
Support: 0.8268, 0.82627, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.82734, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8273 session high opens the 0.8300 round number
M15 close back below 0.8262 (ema20 / Asian range top) would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the rising lows line and the 0.8250 asian low would undo the overnight uptrend structure
No high-impact data in the next 8h; Fedspeak reaction to the hot CPI is the main headline risk ahead of Thu jobless claims
07:16 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling after failed high · RSI 58 · price 0.82644
The hot US CPI print drove yesterday's leg from 0.8204 to the 0.8268 prior high. Higher lows since the 0.8245 rollover dip carried price to a 0.8273 session high in early European hours, but the break failed and RSI(14) has cooled from 76 to 57.5. Price now sits near the 38.2% fib of that 0.8245–0.8273 leg, above the ema20 at 0.8262 and the ema50 at 0.8255.
Support: 0.82618, 0.82563, 0.82549
Resistance: 0.8268, 0.82734
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.8273 session high negates the false break at the prior high
Loss of the 0.8256 swing low and the ema50 at 0.8255 breaks the higher-low trendline
London open in ~45 min likely sets the next range; ATR at 3.5 pips is expanding from 2.8
Fedspeak headlines on 50bp December pricing; Thu jobless claims is the next scheduled US data
Asia HL chain broke above post-CPI high, now retesting it.
The hot US CPI rally resumed out of the Asian range ahead of London open. Price printed a session high at 0.82734, above the 0.8268 cpi high, before the last bar faded back onto that level. RSI(14) cooled from 76.2 to 63.7, price holds above both EMAs, rising lows are intact, and ATR sits at 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.8268, 0.82615, 0.82563
Resistance: 0.82734, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Holding 0.8268 cpi high keeps this a retest; an M15 close back below it flags a false break toward ema20 at 0.82615
Failure at the 0.82563 swing low breaks the rising lows chain from the Asian session
Close above 0.82734 session high opens the 0.8300 round number flagged in the USD/CHF macro read
No scheduled USD/CHF data in the next 8h; Fed speaker headlines on 25 vs 50bp remain the swing factor
Breakout above Asian range and CPI-day high, higher lows since late NY.
The USD bid from Tuesday's hot CPI carried into the pre-London hour. Price cleared the Asian range top near 0.8263 and the CPI-day prior high at 0.8268, printing a session high at 0.8273. RSI(14) at 76.2 is overbought, with price stretched about 12 pips above the ema20 at 0.8261. ATR(14) of 3.2 pips shows a quiet tape despite the push.
Support: 0.8268, 0.8261, 0.8256
Resistance: 0.8273, 0.8300
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.8268 prior high would mark the break as a false break
A break of the 0.8256 swing low ends the rising lows sequence from the late-NY 0.8245 low
Session high at 0.8273: area to watch for rejection or extension at the London open
Acceptance above 0.8273 opens the path toward the 0.8300 round number
Holding the ema20 at 0.8261 on any pullback keeps the intraday uptrend structure intact
06:31 UTC
Uptrend, retesting post-CPI high · RSI 70 · price 0.82669
Higher lows through Asia, pressing session high.
Late in the Asia session, USDCHF has cleared the 0.8263 Asian high and is retesting the 0.8268 CPI high. The hot US CPI bid is still being extended through a higher-low chain from 0.8245, with price above ema20 (0.8260) and ema50. RSI(14) sits at 69.5, just under overbought, while ATR(14) has compressed to 2.9 pips from 3.5.
Support: 0.8263, 0.82596, 0.82563
Resistance: 0.8268, 0.8270
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8268 CPI high and 0.8270 psych extends the higher-high chain into London open
Rejection at 0.8268 and a slip back under the 0.8263 Asian high turns the retest into a failed break
Loss of ema20 at 0.8260 and the 0.8256 swing low breaks the rising trendline and the Asian higher-low sequence
Fedspeak headlines during NY hours could reprice the 25bp vs 50bp December debate and shift this read
Asia higher-low chain pressing the session high below the post-CPI peak.
The hot US CPI lifted the pair to a 0.8268 cpi high in NY. The pullback held at the 0.8245 asia low, and Asia has since built higher lows along a rising trendline into the 0.8265 asia high. Price sits above a rising ema20 (0.8259) and ema50 (0.8253), with RSI(14) at 65 and ATR(14) compressed to 2.9 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 0.82588, 0.82563, 0.82449
Resistance: 0.82647, 0.8268
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8268 cpi high clears the post-CPI range top, with 0.8300 the next round number
Rejection at the 0.8265 asia high, followed by a loss of the ema20 at 0.8259, stalls the Asian advance
Break below the 0.8256 swing low and the rising trendline undercuts the higher-low chain
Failure at the 0.8245 asia low reopens the post-CPI fib retracement toward the 50% level near 0.8235
London open in under 2h typically expands the 2.9-pip ATR
06:02 UTC
Uptrend, low-range grind · RSI 62 · price 0.82634
Higher lows through Asia, testing session high below CPI peak.
Asia has stacked higher lows at 0.8245, 0.8253 and 0.8256 off the rollover asian low. Price is back at the asian high near 0.8264, having recovered most of Tuesday's post-CPI fade, with the 0.8268 cpi high overhead into London open. Hot US CPI still underpins the pair; price holds above a rising ema20 (0.8258), RSI(14) is 62 and ATR has compressed to 2.9 pips.
Support: 0.82583, 0.82563, 0.82449
Resistance: 0.82636, 0.8268
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8268 cpi high clears Tuesday's post-CPI peak and extends the higher-low sequence
Break of the 0.8256 swing low and ema20 at 0.8258 snaps the Asian higher-low chain
Loss of the 0.8245 asian low reopens the full post-CPI fade
London open could expand the sub-3-pip ATR range; no scheduled USD/CHF data in the next 8h, Fed speaker headlines remain the driver
Asian higher lows pressing the Asian high, below CPI high.
The hot US CPI drove a rally to the 0.8268 CPI high in NY. Price then retraced to the 0.82449 asian low, near the 38.2% fib, and Asia has built higher lows along a rising trendline into the 0.8263 asian high. Price sits above ema20 and ema50, RSI(14) is at 60.6, and ATR(14) has compressed to 2.9 pips with London open about an hour out.
Support: 0.82579, 0.82531, 0.82449
Resistance: 0.8263, 0.8268
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8263 asian high opens a retest of the 0.8268 cpi high
Close below the rising trendline and the 0.82531 swing low breaks the Asian higher-low chain
Loss of the 0.82449 asian low undercuts the fib hold of the post-CPI move
ATR at 2.9 pips is compressed, so London open is the likely range-expansion test
Fedspeak reaction to CPI and 50bp-hike pricing remain the USD driver into Thursday claims
05:31 UTC
Post-CPI uptrend, pausing in late Asia · RSI 52 · price 0.82572
Asian range 0.8245–0.8263 with higher lows, compressing at EMA20.
The hot US CPI print drove a 65-pip leg to the 0.8268 cpi high. The NY fade and post-rollover dip held at the asian low of 0.8245, near the 38.2% retrace of that leg on the cpi leg fib. Late Asia is compressing below the 0.8263 asian high, with an intraday higher low at 0.8255, price fractionally below EMA20, RSI(14) cooled to 52 from 68 and ATR(14) down to 2.8 pips.
Support: 0.8255, 0.82513, 0.8245
Resistance: 0.8263, 0.8268
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.8255 higher low and the ema50 at 0.8251 exposes the 0.8245 asian low and the 38.2% cpi leg fib
An M15 close above the 0.8263 asian high brings the 0.8268 cpi high back into play
London open in about 1.5h is the likely test of the Asian range edges
Fedspeak and Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims could shift 50bp pricing and materially change this read
Asian higher lows below the CPI high, compressing.
USD/CHF holds most of yesterday's hot-CPI rally to the 0.8268 cpi high. The Asia session filled the 0.8245 gap-open low (asian low) and built higher lows into a 0.8263 asian high. Late Asia, price sits on a flat ema20 at 0.82575 with ATR compressed to 2.9 pips and RSI 53.5, a tight consolidation under the highs ahead of London open.
Support: 0.8255, 0.82511, 0.82449
Resistance: 0.8263, 0.8268
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8263 asian high opens a retest of the 0.8268 cpi high
Loss of the 0.8255 higher low breaks the rising line and exposes the ema50 at 0.8251, then the 0.8245 asian low
ATR at 2.9 pips is the session low; London open is the likely range-expansion window
No scheduled US or Swiss data in the next 8h; Fedspeak or Middle East headlines are the event risk
The hot US CPI drove a 65-pip NY leg to the 0.8268 cpi high. The pullback held 0.8245, just above the 38.2% of the cpi leg fib, and the late Asia session has printed higher lows up to the 0.8263 asian high. Price now sits on the ema20 with RSI(14) easing to 52.8 and ATR(14) compressed at 3 pips, above the ema50 at 0.8251.
Support: 0.82575, 0.8255, 0.82449
Resistance: 0.8263, 0.8268, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8255 higher low breaks the Asia HH/HL chain and exposes the 0.8245 asian low
Break of the 0.8263 asian high puts the 0.8268 cpi high in play; a close above it opens 0.8300 psych
London open in ~2h is the first test of the Asian range after the ATR compression
Fed speaker headlines on 25 vs 50 bp December pricing could materially shift this read
Asia higher lows pressing the 0.8263–0.8268 highs.
Asia has recovered the overnight dip to the 0.8245 gap low, printing higher swing lows at 0.8253 and 0.8255 along rising support. Price is pinned just under the 0.8263 asian high and the 0.8268 cpi high set after yesterday's hot US CPI beat. It holds above a rising ema20 at 0.8258, with RSI at 62 and ATR compressed to 3 pips.
Support: 0.82575, 0.8255, 0.82449
Resistance: 0.8263, 0.8268, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8268 cpi high breaks the post-CPI range top and opens the 0.8300 round number
Loss of the 0.8255 swing low and rising support would break the Asia higher-low chain, exposing the 0.8245 gap low
London open could expand the compressed 3-pip ATR range
Higher lows through Asia, capped just below post-CPI high.
USD/CHF has stacked higher lows through the Asia session at 0.8245 (asia low), 0.8253 (swing low) and 0.8255. The Asia high at 0.8263 sits just shy of the 0.8268 cpi high set after Tuesday's hot US CPI print. Price holds above the ema20 at 0.8257, with RSI(14) at 61 and ATR(14) compressing to 3 pips.
Support: 0.82571, 0.82531, 0.82449
Resistance: 0.8263, 0.8268
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8268 cpi high extends the post-CPI leg
Loss of the 0.8253 swing low breaks the Asia higher-low trendline and the HL chain
Hold above the ema20 at 0.8257 keeps the move shallow, near the 38.2% fib of the Asia leg
A slide back to the 0.8245 asia low would erase the overnight leg
No scheduled US or Swiss data in the next 8h; Fedspeak headlines on a 50bp December hike are the main risk
Late in the Asia session, the pair has retraced most of the NY pullback that followed the hot US CPI rally. It has printed higher lows off the 0.8245 Asian low and is pressing the 0.8263 Asian high, just under the 0.8268 NY high. Price holds above ema20 and ema50, RSI(14) at 64.7 is not stretched and ATR is a quiet 3.3 pips.
Support: 0.82564, 0.82531, 0.82449
Resistance: 0.8263, 0.8268
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8268 NY high clears the post-CPI peak and opens the path toward the 0.8300 round number
Rejection at the 0.8263 Asian high, followed by a loss of ema20 at 0.8256, puts the Asia trendline under test
Break below the 0.8253 swing low and the Asia trendline turns the recovery into a lower high under 0.8268
London open could expand the range beyond the compressed 3.3-pip ATR
Fed speakers on a 50bp December move are the main headline risk, with no US or Swiss data due in the next few hours
03:46 UTC
Uptrend, pressing Asian range high · RSI 64 · price 0.82615
Higher lows through Asia, testing 0.8262 session high.
Hot US CPI drove the NY rally to the 0.8268 NY high. The rollover gap down to 0.8245 filled in Asia, and Asia has since built higher lows at 0.8253 and 0.8255. Late Asia is retesting the 0.8262 Asian high with RSI(14) at 63.6, price above a rising ema20 at 0.82558 and ATR(14) compressed to 3.3 pips.
Support: 0.82558, 0.82531, 0.82449
Resistance: 0.82618, 0.8268
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8262 Asian high opens the 0.8268 NY high
Loss of ema20 and the 0.8253 higher low breaks the Asia higher-low trendline
Break below the 0.8245 rollover low negates the Asian recovery
No scheduled US or Swiss data before London; Fed speaker headlines on a 50bp December hike could still jolt this read
USD/CHF is holding most of the hot US CPI rally that topped at the 0.8268 cpi high in NY. The pullback found a floor at the 0.8245 asian low near the 38.2% cpi rally fib, and Asia has since printed a higher low at 0.8253. Price now sits above the ema20 (0.8255) pressing the 0.8261 asian high, with RSI(14) at 61.5 and ATR(14) a quiet 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.82553, 0.82531, 0.82449
Resistance: 0.82613, 0.8268
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8261 asian high opens a retest of the 0.8268 cpi high
Loss of the ema20 and the 0.8253 higher low breaks the Asia higher-low chain
Break below the 0.8245 asian low takes the pullback past the 38.2% cpi rally fib
London open could expand the tight Asian range
Thu jobless claims (13:30 UTC) and heavy Fed speaker slate could shift the read
03:16 UTC
Uptrend, pausing in Asian consolidation · RSI 55 · price 0.8256
Post-CPI high 0.8268, pullback held 38.2%, Asia higher lows.
The hot US CPI print drove a 65-pip leg from 0.8203 to the NY high at 0.8268. The pullback stalled at the 0.8245 Asia low, just above the 38.2% fib of that move. Mid-Asia, price is coiling between the 0.8253 higher low and the 0.8261 Asia high, above both EMAs, with RSI(14) cooled to 54.7 from 68 and ATR(14) compressed at 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.8253, 0.8250, 0.8245
Resistance: 0.8261, 0.8268, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8261 Asia high reopens the 0.8268 NY high, then the 0.8300 round number
Break of the 0.8253 higher low and the 0.8250 psych level puts the 0.8245 Asia low back in play
Loss of 0.8245 ends the 38.2% fib hold and the Asia higher-low chain
No scheduled data in the next 8h; Fed speaker headlines are the main event risk for this read
03:01 UTC
Post-CPI uptrend, consolidating in Asia · RSI 58 · price 0.82567
Higher lows inside Asian range 0.8245–0.8261.
Hot US CPI drove a 65-pip leg from 0.8203 to the 0.8268 CPI high in NY. The pair then bled back to a 0.8245 Asian low after the rollover gap, the first pullback of that leg. Asia has since printed a higher low at 0.8253, with price holding above the ema20 and RSI(14) at 57.7, inside a 0.8245–0.8261 range with ATR 3.5 pips.
Support: 0.82547, 0.82531, 0.82449
Resistance: 0.82613, 0.8268
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8261 Asian high opens a retest of the 0.8268 CPI high
Failure to hold the 0.8253 higher low and the ema20 returns price to the 0.8245 Asian low, near the ema50
A break below the 0.8245 Asian low deepens the retracement of the CPI leg
Thu jobless claims and the Fed speaker slate (Williams, Daly, Goolsbee) could materially shift this read
Hot US CPI drove a post-CPI leg from 0.8203 to the 0.8268 cpi high. The NY pullback bottomed at 0.8245, now the asian low, and Asia has since printed a higher low at 0.8253 just under the ema20 (0.82545). Price is pressing the 0.8261 asian high with RSI(14) at 62.7 and ATR 3.5 pips.
Support: 0.82545, 0.82531, 0.82449
Resistance: 0.82613, 0.8268
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.8261 asian high opens a retest of the 0.8268 cpi high
Loss of the 0.8253 higher low and the asian hl line puts the 0.8245 asian low back in play
No US or Swiss data scheduled in the next 8h; Fed speaker headlines on a 50bp December hike are the main swing factor
02:31 UTC
Post-CPI uptrend, consolidating in Asia · RSI 57 · price 0.82559
Higher lows inside the 0.8245–0.8261 Asian range, below the 0.8268 CPI high.
The hot US CPI print drove a 65-pip NY rally to the 0.8268 CPI high, then price faded through the afternoon to a 0.8245 session low at the rollover. Asia has since printed higher lows within a 0.8245–0.8261 range. Price is holding just above the ema20 with RSI(14) cooled from 68 and ATR compressed at 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.8245
Resistance: 0.8261, 0.8268
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8261 asian high reopens the 0.8268 cpi high
Break of the Asian higher-lows trendline and the 0.8245 session low takes the post-CPI fib retracement beyond 38.2%
No scheduled US or Swiss data in the next 8h. Fed-speak or Middle East headlines are the main catalysts for a range break.
Asia session higher lows inside 0.8245–0.8261 range.
The hot US CPI beat drove a 65-pip rally to the 0.8268 cpi high late in NY. The fade held the 0.8245 asia low after the daily-open gap, close to the 38.2% post-CPI fib. Asia is printing higher lows inside 0.8245–0.8261, with price just above the ema20 at 0.8254, RSI(14) at 56 and ATR(14) at 3.5 pips.
Support: 0.82539, 0.82462, 0.82449
Resistance: 0.82613, 0.8268
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8261 asia high opens a retest of the 0.8268 cpi high
Loss of the ema50 at 0.8246 and the 0.8245 asia low breaks the asia higher lows and the 38.2% post-CPI fib hold
Thu jobless claims (13:30 UTC) and a heavy Fed-speaker slate including Williams could materially shift this read
02:01 UTC
Post-CPI uptrend, consolidating in Asia · RSI 55 · price 0.82551
Asian range 0.8245–0.8261, pulling back toward ema20.
The hot US CPI print lifted the pair from the 0.8200 London range to a 0.8268 cpi high in NY hours, before a fade to 0.8249 and a rollover gap that Asia has since filled. The Asian leg from the 0.8245 asian low to the 0.8261 asian high is retracing to its 38.2% near the ema20 at 0.8254, with RSI(14) cooling from 68 to 55 and ATR(14) at a quiet 3.5 pips.
Support: 0.82537, 0.82449
Resistance: 0.82613, 0.8268
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8245 asian low, with the ema50 at 0.8246, breaks the Asian higher-low sequence
Close above the 0.8261 asian high reopens the 0.8268 cpi high
Holding the ema20 near the asian leg fib 38.2–50% keeps the pullback shallow
No high-impact releases due in the next 8h; Fed-speaker headlines on a 50bp December hike could still shift this read
01:46 UTC
Uptrend, Asia grinding higher after pullback · RSI 63 · price 0.82584
Higher lows off the Asian low, capped at the session high.
Hot US CPI drove the NY rally from 0.8203 to the 0.8268 cpi high. Price then retraced about a third of that leg to the 0.8245 asian low, just under the 0.8245 ema50, and Asia has since built higher lows along a rising trendline, with the 0.8261 asian high capping and RSI(14) cooling from 68.
Support: 0.82536, 0.82488, 0.82449
Resistance: 0.82613, 0.8268
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8261 asian high reopens the 0.8268 cpi high
A move back below the 0.8254 ema20 and the rising trendline exposes the 0.8249 ny low
Losing the 0.8245 asian low takes price below the 38.2% level of the cpi leg fib
ATR at 3.4 pips is compressing in thin Asia trade; Fed-speaker or Middle East headlines could expand range quickly
01:31 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 68 · price 0.82598
Higher lows through Asia after gap-down open filled; NY high overhead.
Hot US CPI (0.4% m/m) drove a ~65-pip NY rally to the 0.8268 NY high. Price then drifted into a gap at the new-day open, and the asian low at 0.8245 held about 35% into the CPI leg. Asia is now building higher lows into the 0.8261 session high, with RSI(14) at 68, price above both EMAs and ema20 rising at 0.8253.
Support: 0.82532, 0.82449
Resistance: 0.82613, 0.8268
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8261 session high puts the 0.8268 NY high back in play
Failure to hold ema20 at 0.8253 and the higher lows trendline flattens the Asia advance
Break below the 0.8245 asian low invalidates the higher-low chain and the CPI leg retracement hold
Fed speakers through Thursday on 50bp December talk could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Uptrend, Asia recovering toward NY high · RSI 68 · price 0.8260
Higher lows through Asia after rollover gap; pressing under 0.8268 CPI high.
The hot 0.4% US CPI print drove the CPI leg from 0.8203 to the 0.8268 high during NY hours. The late-NY pullback held 0.8249, the ny low. Early Asia session filled the rollover gap from the 0.8245 asian low with a run of higher lows and now sits at 0.8260 above the ema20, with RSI(14) at 68.4 and ATR compressed at 3.5 pips.
Support: 0.82525, 0.82488, 0.82449
Resistance: 0.8268, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8268 cpi high extends the CPI leg toward the 0.8300 round number
A break of the Asia higher lows and then the ema20 at 0.82525 turns this into a range back toward the 0.8249 ny low
Failure to hold the 0.8245 asian low unwinds the Asia recovery and opens a deeper retracement of the CPI leg
No US or Swiss data is scheduled in the next 8h; Fed-speaker headlines on December hike size are the main swing factor
01:01 UTC
Uptrend after CPI spike, Asia grinding higher · RSI 61 · price 0.82558
Higher lows off 0.8245 Asia low, pressing Asia high.
Hot US CPI drove a 65-pip leg to the 0.8268 cpi high, and the NY pullback held 0.8245–0.8249, just above the 38.2% of the CPI leg fib. Early in the Asia session, price is printing higher lows along a rising line above ema20 and ema50 and is testing the 0.8257 asia high. ATR has compressed to 3.3 pips.
Support: 0.82517, 0.82488, 0.82449
Resistance: 0.82568, 0.8268
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8257 asia high reopens 0.8263–0.8268, the cpi high
Loss of ema20 and the Asia rising line puts the 0.8249 ny low back in play
Break below the 0.8245 asia low, with ema50 at 0.8244, signals a deeper retracement of the CPI leg
No scheduled releases. Fed-speak on a 50bp December hike or Middle East headlines reviving CHF haven demand could shift this read
Hot US CPI extended the Waller-led bounce into a 94-pip CPI rally from the 0.8174 London low to the 0.8268 NY high. The pullback held the 0.8245 rollover low after the open gap, and Asia is now pressing the 0.8256 asian high above ema20, with ATR compressed to 3.3 pips.
Support: 0.82514, 0.82449, 0.82432
Resistance: 0.82558, 0.8268
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8256 asian high reopens the 0.8268 ny high
Failure at ema20 and a break of the 0.8245 rollover low exposes ema50 at 0.8243 and the CPI rally fib 38.2% near 0.8232
No scheduled US or Swiss data in the next 8h; Fed speakers and Middle East headlines are the main event risk to this read
00:31 UTC
Post-CPI uptrend, pulling back in consolidation · RSI 58 · price 0.82545
Shallow retrace holding 38.2% of CPI leg, compressing under late-NY highs.
The hot US CPI leg from 0.8203 to the 0.8268 session high has retraced about a third. The daily-open gap low at 0.8245, near the 38.2% of the CPI leg, was bought and the gap filled. Early Asia is now pressing the 0.8255 late-NY high. Price is above the ema20 (0.8251) and ema50 (0.8243), RSI(14) is 58 and ATR has compressed to 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.8251, 0.82449, 0.82427
Resistance: 0.82556, 0.82621, 0.8268
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8255 late-NY high reopens the 0.8262 cpi shelf and the 0.8268 session high
Loss of the ema20 at 0.8251, then the 0.8245 gap low, puts the ema50 / 38.2% zone at 0.8243 back in play
Failure to hold 0.8243 breaks the post-CPI higher-low structure
No tier-one data in the next 8h; Fedspeak on a 50bp December hike is the main headline risk
Tight 0.8245–0.8255 range below the 0.8268 CPI high.
Hot US CPI and hawkish Fedspeak drove a 65-pip NY leg to the 0.8268 cpi high. The pair has since compressed into a 0.8245–0.8255 range, with the rollover gap low at 0.8245 holding. Early Asia session finds price just above the ema20 at 0.8251, RSI 56 neutral and ATR down to 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.82507, 0.82449, 0.82423
Resistance: 0.8255, 0.8268
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8255 range top opens a retest of the 0.8268 cpi high
Loss of the 0.8245 gap low and the ema50 at 0.8242 puts the 38.2% fib of the CPI leg near 0.8243 in play
Fed speakers on a 50bp December hike could break the compression; Thu claims are the next scheduled data
Tight 0.8245–0.8255 range after a fade from the 0.8268 NY high.
Hot US CPI and Waller's 50bp talk drove USD/CHF from the 0.8203 area to a 0.8268 NY high. The pair has since faded on lower highs into a 0.8245–0.8255 range at the Asia open, with the rollover gap low at 0.8245 holding just above the rising ema50 and the 38.2% fib. Price sits flat on the ema20, RSI(14) is neutral at 52 and ATR(14) has compressed to 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.82449, 0.82419
Resistance: 0.8255, 0.8268
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8245 rollover low and the ema50 at 0.8242 breaks the range and exposes the 50% fib near 0.8236
Close above the 0.8255 range top breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.8268 NY high
No scheduled US or CHF data through Asia; Thu jobless claims and Fed speakers on a 50bp hike are the next catalyst