Higher highs since Tuesday's CPI, consolidating above 0.8300.
The week opened near 0.8193 and held a double low around 0.8174 in Monday and Tuesday London trade. The hot US CPI print then drove a NY-session impulse to the 0.8268 Tue high, and Wednesday's London-to-NY leg pushed through the 0.8300 round number to a 0.8337 week high. Price sits above a rising EMA(20) at 0.8297 and EMA(50) at 0.8260, but RSI(14) at 80.9 is overbought and slipped from 87 on the latest higher close, while ATR(14) has eased from 10.4 to 9.3 pips as price stalls under the week high.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82973, 0.8268
Resistance: 0.83374, 0.8350
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 0.8300 round number and ema20 near 0.8297 would mark the breakout as failing
Clearance of the 0.8337 week high opens the 0.8350 psych level
Loss of rising support from Wednesday's Asia lows and the 0.8268 Tue high would retrace toward the 38.2% fib
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 13:30 UTC and the Fed speaker slate could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Tuesday's 0.8174 low; break above the 0.8300-0.8315 band.
USDCHF has risen about 160 pips from Tuesday's 0.8174 London-morning low. The impulse ran mainly in NY hours: the hot US CPI print lifted the pair into Tuesday's 0.8268 high, and today's NY open pushed it through the 0.8300-0.8315 resistance band to a week high at 0.8337. Price sits roughly 45 pips above a steepening EMA(20) at 0.8290, with Wednesday's higher lows intact, while RSI(14) at 85.5 is overbought after climbing steadily from 64 since the Asia session and ATR(14) near 10 pips points to an orderly advance.
Support: 0.8315, 0.82896, 0.8268
Resistance: 0.83374, 0.8382
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 0.8315 breakout level would mark the push through resistance as a false break and expose the ema20 near 0.8290
RSI(14) is overbought at 85.5. A lower RSI high on a fresh print above the 0.8337 week high would flag bearish divergence
Holding above the tue high at 0.8268 and the line of Wednesday's higher lows keeps the impulse structure intact. Acceptance above the week high leaves 0.8382 as the next res
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fed speakers that follow (Hammack, Barr, Goolsbee) could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday's 0.8174 low; now pressing the 0.8300-0.8315 band.
USDCHF has climbed about 157 pips off Tuesday's London-open low at 0.8174. Waller's 50bp warning and the hot US CPI drove a breakout through Monday's 0.8227 high, and Wednesday extended it in steps, with the largest leg in the first hour of NY to a week high at 0.8331. Price now trades just above the zone top at 0.8315 and well clear of a steepening EMA(20) at 0.8285, with EMA(50) at 0.8251 near the 50% fib of the Tuesday-Wednesday impulse. RSI(14) is overbought at 84.6, slightly off its 87.2 peak while closes edged higher, and ATR has re-expanded to around 10 pips after compressing in the Asia session.
Support: 0.8315, 0.82848, 0.82511
Resistance: 0.83312, 0.8350
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the zone top at 0.8315 would mark the 0.8300-0.8315 band as rejection, not breakout
H1 close back below the ema20 at 0.8285 and the Wednesday higher-low trendline breaks the steady stepping-up structure
Acceptance above the week high at 0.8331 opens the round number at 0.8350
A pullback toward the 50% fib near the ema50 at 0.8251 would still leave the impulse structure intact
US Initial Jobless Claims (Thu 13:30 UTC) and the Fedspeak slate after it could materially shift this read; Fri core PPI is the bigger test
Higher highs and higher lows from Tuesday's low; Tuesday high broken.
USD/CHF has climbed about 155 pips from Tuesday's London-open low at 0.8174. Waller's remarks and the hot US CPI print drove the first leg, and Wednesday's London and NY sessions carried it to a 0.83295 week high, through the 0.8300 psych level and the 0.8315 band top. RSI(14) at 83.4 is overbought and the ema20 at 0.82801 sits about 43 pips below price, with ATR expanding to 10.4 pips. The 38.2% retracement of the CPI impulse lines up with Tuesday's high near 0.8268.
Support: 0.8315, 0.8300, 0.82801
Resistance: 0.83295, 0.8382
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 0.8300 psych level would mark a rejection at the 0.8300–0.8315 band
Holding above the 0.8315 band top leaves 0.8382, the next level cited, in view
A new high above the 0.83295 week high with RSI(14) below its 87.2 peak would print bearish RSI divergence
A pullback into the ema20 at 0.82801 would test whether the trend's pullbacks still find support
US Initial Jobless Claims (Thu 13:30 UTC) and the Fedspeak slate, then Fri core PPI, could materially shift this read
Tuesday's hot US CPI beat drove the week's main impulse from the 0.8174 double low to 0.8268. Price then held a tight overnight range low at 0.8245, just above ema50, before a steady London-session climb through the 0.83 handle into a new session high near 0.8321. Higher lows remain intact, and price sits roughly 50 pips above a rising ema20. RSI(14) at 85.3 is deep in overbought territory, while ATR is expanding off this week's compression. The round number at 0.8350 is the next nearby reference above.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82701, 0.82449
Resistance: 0.83208, 0.8350
What it said to watch
An hourly close back below the 0.83 handle would mark the breakout as a false break
A pullback to ema20 near 0.8270, close to the 38.2% fib, would test whether the higher-lows sequence holds
Failure to hold the 0.8245 range low breaks the higher-lows trendline
Session high at 0.8321 is the first cap; the round number at 0.8350 sits above it, with 0.8382 as the next level cited in the macro digest
Thu US jobless claims and Fedspeak (Hammack, Williams), then Fri core PPI, could materially shift this read
13:01 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into resistance · RSI 81 · price 0.82957
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday's CPI breakout, now pressing 0.8300.
USD/CHF turned higher from Tuesday's 0.8174 Asian low. Waller's comments, then the hot core CPI print (0.3% vs 0.2%), drove a breakout through Monday's 0.8227 high to a 0.8268 tue high. Wednesday's London session added a steady grind along a line of rising lows to a 0.8299 day high, just under the 0.8300 round number that opens the 0.8300–0.8315 resistance zone. Price sits well above a rising EMA(20) at 0.8265 and EMA(50) at 0.8238, with RSI(14) at 80.6 overbought, while ATR has compressed to 9.3 pips as bars narrow into the level.
Support: 0.8268, 0.82653, 0.82449
Resistance: 0.82986, 0.8300, 0.8315
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 0.8300 round number with RSI(14) rolling off overbought would mark the CPI leg as stretched
H1 close above the 0.8315 zone top extends the breakout beyond the 0.8300–0.8315 band
A break of the rising lows line and the 0.8268 tue high, with the ema20 near 0.8265, shifts the read to a deeper pullback toward the 0.8245 asia low and the 38.2% of the cpi leg fib
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fed speaker slate, including Williams, could reprice the 50bp case; Fri core PPI is the week's key test
12:12 UTC
Uptrend, overbought into week high · RSI 80 · price 0.82942
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday's 0.8174 low.
USDCHF has run about 120 pips from Tuesday's 0.8174 week low. Waller's remarks and the hot US CPI beat drove the NY-session leg to 0.8268, and London extended today through that prior high to a 0.8296 week high. Price holds above a rising EMA(20) at 0.8262 and EMA(50) at 0.8236, and the overnight Asia low at 0.8245 marks a higher low just above the 38.2% fib of the week rally; RSI(14) at 80.2 is overbought but shows no bearish divergence against Tuesday's 77 peak.
Support: 0.8268, 0.82621, 0.82449
Resistance: 0.82962, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8300 round number clears the week high and brings the 0.8300–0.8315 resistance zone into play
Failure to hold the 0.8268 prior high would turn today's breakout into a false break, with ema20 at 0.8262 next
Break of the higher-low trendline and the 0.8245 asia low would end the higher-low sequence
Thu Fedspeak (Williams 23:30 UTC) and Fri US PPI could materially shift this read
10:01 UTC
Uptrend, overbought into the week high · RSI 76 · price 0.82831
Double bottom at 0.8174 broke out through Monday's high; higher lows since.
USD/CHF has climbed about 115 pips off Tuesday's double bottom at 0.8174. Waller's remarks lifted it in London, and the hot US CPI print carried it through the 0.8227 Monday high during NY hours. London has extended the move to a fresh week high at 0.8288. Price holds above a rising EMA(20) at 0.8255 and EMA(50) at 0.8231. RSI(14) is overbought at 76.3 but sits marginally below Tuesday's 77.3 peak. ATR has eased to 9.5 pips from 13 after CPI.
Support: 0.8268, 0.82554, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.82884, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Clearance of the 0.8300 round number extends the uptrend; a rejection there with RSI holding below Tuesday's peak would point to a pause
H1 close back below the 0.8268 tue high exposes the ema20 at 0.8255 and the higher lows trendline
Failure to hold the 0.8227 monday high negates the CPI breakout
Thursday's jobless claims and heavy Fedspeak, then Friday's core PPI, could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 0.8174, breakout above Monday high holding.
USDCHF double-tapped the 0.8174 week low on Monday and Tuesday, then broke higher. Waller's London-session remarks started the move and the hot US CPI in the NY session extended it through the 0.8227 Monday high to 0.8268. The overnight pullback held at the ema20 near 0.8245, and Asia has pressed a new week high at 0.8278. RSI(14) is overbought at 73.6 but below the 77.3 CPI peak, a mild bearish divergence, while ATR has compressed from 13.0 to about 9 pips.
Support: 0.82497, 0.82267, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.82782, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the ema20 at 0.8250 would break the pullback-holding pattern since the CPI spike
Loss of the 0.8227 monday high, which coincides with EMA(50), would negate the breakout and open the 0.8174 week low
Round number 0.8300 above the week high is the next area to watch for rejection or break
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and late-Thu Fedspeak, then Fri 13:30 UTC PPI, could materially shift 50bp pricing and this read
Post-CPI impulse, tight flag, marginal new week high.
USDCHF turned higher from Tuesday's London low at 0.8174, lifted first by Waller's 50bp remarks and then by the hot US CPI beat in the NY session, which carried price through the monday high at 0.8227 to 0.8268. Overnight the pair held a tight flag between 0.8245 and 0.8263 above a rising EMA(20) at 0.8247, then broke out to a new week high at 0.8273 in the Asia session. RSI(14) at 70.9 sits below its 77.3 post-CPI peak, a bearish divergence, and ATR has compressed from 13 to 8.9 pips.
Support: 0.82471, 0.82449, 0.82267
Resistance: 0.82734, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Hourly closes above the 0.8273 week high would extend the uptrend toward the 0.8300 round number
A break of the 0.8245 flag low and ema20 would end the flag read and open a retest of the 0.8227 monday high
Bearish RSI divergence at the week high is unresolved while RSI holds near 70
Thursday's Fedspeak (Williams late) and Friday 13:30 UTC PPI could materially shift this read
Double bottom breakout; higher lows, tight range under 0.8268.
USD/CHF built a double bottom at the 0.8174 week low around Monday's and Tuesday's London opens. It then cleared the 0.8227 Monday high as Waller's comments and the hot US CPI (0.4% vs 0.3% m/m) drove a NY-session impulse to a 0.8268 week high. Since then price has held a roughly 20-pip band below that high, with the Asian session low sitting on EMA(20) at 0.8245 and higher lows intact, while RSI(14) has cooled from 77 to 68 and ATR has compressed from 13 to 8.7 pips.
Support: 0.82449, 0.82267, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.8268, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8268 week high opens the 0.8300 round number
Loss of EMA(20) at 0.8245 and the higher lows line would expose the 0.8227 Monday high near the 38.2% retrace of the CPI impulse
A return below the 0.8174 week low would negate the double bottom
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fedspeak, then Fri PPI, could materially shift this read
USD/CHF broke out of Monday's 0.8174–0.8227 range in Tuesday's London session on Waller's remarks. It extended through the NY session after the hot October CPI (0.4% m/m vs 0.3% forecast), and that impulse tagged a week high at 0.8268. Since then price has held a tight flag, with the Asia-open gap holding the 0.8245 flag low just above the rising EMA(20) at 0.8243, while RSI(14) has cooled from 77 to 66 and ATR has compressed to 8.9 pips.
Support: 0.82449, 0.82267, 0.8222
Resistance: 0.8268, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8268 week high resolves the flag higher, with the 0.8300 round number next
Failure to hold the 0.8245 flag low and EMA(20) opens a deeper retracement of the CPI impulse toward the 0.8227 Monday high
A break of the Monday high would expose EMA(50) at 0.8222, near the 50% fib of the impulse
Thursday 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed speakers, then Friday's PPI, could reprice 50 bp December odds and shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday's 0.8174 low; tight range below the week high.
USDCHF bounced from a twin low near 0.8174, first hit on Monday and retested at Tuesday's London open. Waller's comments started the lift, and the hot US CPI beat drove the NY-session breakout through Monday's high at 0.8227 to a week high at 0.8268. Since then price has held a shallow range in Asia above the 0.8245 pullback low, well clear of the rising EMA(20) at 0.82415. RSI(14) has eased from 77 to about 70 and ATR has compressed from 13 to 9 pips, so the move is pausing rather than reversing.
Support: 0.8245, 0.82415, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8268, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8268 week high resumes the breakout and opens the 0.8300 round number
Loss of the 0.8245 pullback low and the post-CPI higher-lows line exposes the EMA(20) near 0.8242
A move back below Monday's high at 0.8227, near the fib 38.2% at 0.8232, would undercut the breakout read
Thursday's jobless claims and Fedspeak, then Friday's PPI, could materially shift this read
USD/CHF built a double bottom near 0.8174 across Monday and Tuesday London sessions. It then broke through the monday high at 0.8227 when the hot US CPI beat (0.4% vs 0.3%) and hawkish Fedspeak drove a 94-pip NY-session impulse to the 0.8268 week high. Since then price has held a narrow 0.8245–0.8261 band through Asia, between the asia low and asia high. RSI(14) has eased from 77 to 68 and ATR has compressed to 9.3 pips, with price still above a rising EMA(20) at 0.82394 and EMA(50) at 0.82189.
Support: 0.82449, 0.82394, 0.82267
Resistance: 0.82613, 0.8268, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.82449 asia low exposes the ema20 at 0.82394 and the 38.2% fib of Tuesday's impulse near 0.8232
Loss of the monday high at 0.82267 would put the double bottom breakout in question and bring the 50% fib near 0.8221 into view
Acceptance above the 0.82613 asia high and the 0.8268 week high opens the 0.8300 round number
Thu jobless claims and the Fed speaker slate, then Fri PPI, could materially shift this read
USD/CHF broke out of the Monday–Tuesday range on the hot US CPI beat. Tuesday's NY-session CPI impulse cleared the 0.8227 prior high and carried price to a 0.8268 week high, while RSI(14) eased from 77 to 67. Through the Asia session the pullback stalled at the 0.8249 swing low, above a rising EMA(20) at 0.8238 and EMA(50) at 0.8217, with ATR(14) compressing from 13 to 9.5 pips as the move pauses.
Support: 0.82488, 0.82376, 0.82267
Resistance: 0.8268, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8249 swing low exposes the ema20 near 0.8238 and the 38.2% CPI impulse fib near 0.8232
Loss of the 0.8227 prior high would put price back inside the pre-CPI range
Clearance of the 0.8268 week high opens the path toward the 0.8300 round number
Thu jobless claims and the Fed-speaker slate, then Fri PPI, could materially shift this read
Post-CPI breakout, tight consolidation below the week high.
USD/CHF held a 0.8174–0.8227 range through Monday. Waller's remarks during Tuesday's London session lifted it off the 0.8174 week low, and the hot US CPI beat (0.4% m/m vs 0.3%) drove the NY-session break through the Monday high to a 0.8268 week high. Since then price has sat in a tight consolidation above the 0.8249 pullback low, with a rising EMA(20) at 0.8236 beneath, rising lows intact and RSI(14) easing from 77 to 67.
Support: 0.82488, 0.82357, 0.82267
Resistance: 0.8268, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8268 week high opens the 0.8300 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8249 pullback low exposes ema20 at 0.8236, near the 38.2% retracement of the Tuesday rally
Return below the 0.8227 Monday high would undo the CPI breakout and break the rising lows
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fed speaker cluster, then Fri PPI, could materially shift this read
The week's dominant move came on Tuesday. A London-morning bounce off the 0.8174 double-bottom base, matching Monday's low, was extended in the NY session by the hot US CPI beat. That leg cleared the monday high at 0.8227 and peaked at the tuesday high of 0.8268. Since then price has held a tight 0.8245–0.8265 band above a rising EMA(20) at 0.8234, with RSI(14) easing from 77 to 65 and ATR compressing to 9.8 pips as the CPI leg consolidates.
Support: 0.82449, 0.82337, 0.82267
Resistance: 0.8268, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the late NY low at 0.8245 would put the ema20 at 0.8234 in play as the first pullback test
An H1 close back below the monday high at 0.8227 would put the breakout in question and expose the 50% retracement of the CPI leg near 0.8221
A close above the tuesday high at 0.8268 opens the path to the 0.8300 round number
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims plus Williams, Daly and Goolsbee on a 50bp December hike, then Fri PPI, could materially shift this read