Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday; breakout above 0.8337 holding.
USDCHF has climbed about 185 pips off Tuesday's 0.8174 week low, roughly 165 pips above Monday's 0.8196 weekly open. The NY session drove each leg: Tuesday's hot US core CPI, Wednesday's extension and Thursday's push. Asia and London pullbacks held above a rising ema20, and the higher-lows trendline remains intact. Thursday's NY break of Wednesday's 0.8337 high printed a week high at 0.8361, and price has since stalled just below it. RSI(14) has eased to 68.4 from 76.9 and ATR has compressed to 9 pips.
Support: 0.83387, 0.83114
Resistance: 0.83614, 0.8400
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams in ~30 min and US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close back below the ema20 at 0.8339 would put Thursday's breakout above 0.8337 at risk
Break of the 0.8311 swing low, where the ema50 also sits, ends the higher-lows sequence and opens the 38.2% fib near 0.8290
Close above the 0.8361 week high opens the path toward the 0.8400 round number
22:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling near week high · RSI 70 · price 0.83532
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday; break above 0.8337 holding.
USD/CHF has climbed about 187 pips off Tuesday's 0.8174 week low. Tuesday's hotter-than-forecast US core CPI sparked the NY-session break, and Wednesday's London-NY transition carried the pair through 0.8337. Thursday's London dip printed a higher low at 0.8311 before the NY session pushed a fresh week high at 0.8361, and price now sits just above the ema20 at 0.8337, in line with Wednesday's prior high. RSI(14) has eased to 70 from 76.9 and ATR has compressed to 9.1 pips into the late session.
Support: 0.83374, 0.83114, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.83614, 0.8400
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the ema20 / 0.8337 prior high would put the breakout in doubt
Failure to hold the 0.8311 higher low breaks the week's higher-low trendline sequence
Close above the 0.8361 week high opens the path toward the 0.8400 round number
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could shift this read
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) is the next major test of the move
21:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended near week high · RSI 70 · price 0.83522
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday's CPI; Thursday broke the Wed high.
The pair has climbed roughly 187 pips off the 0.8174 week low, set twice on Monday and Tuesday, with the hot US core CPI on Tuesday's NY session driving the main impulse and Wednesday's NY hours extending it to the 0.8337 Wed high. Thursday's London dip held at 0.8311, the thu low, for another higher low. The NY open then broke the Wed high to a 0.8361 week high, shrugging off softer claims and budget data, with RSI(14) peaking at 76.9 before easing to 69.6. Price sits above a rising EMA(20) at 0.8336 and EMA(50) at 0.8307, and ATR is holding near 9.5 pips.
Support: 0.83374, 0.83114, 0.83074
Resistance: 0.83614, 0.8400
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 0.8337 Wed high would turn Thursday's breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8311 thu low, just above the ema50 at 0.8307, breaks the higher-low trendline sequence
Acceptance above the 0.8361 week high brings the 0.8400 round number into view
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC and US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
20:01 UTC
Uptrend, extended into overbought · RSI 70 · price 0.8353
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday's double bottom near 0.8174.
From a double bottom near 0.8174 on Monday and Tuesday, the pair turned higher on the hot US CPI print in Tuesday's NY session and has made higher highs and higher lows since. Thursday's London dip to the 0.8311 Thursday low was bought back during NY hours. Price broke Wednesday's 0.8337 prior high and set a week high at 0.8361, the dollar firm on hawkish Fed repricing. Price holds above a rising EMA(20) at 0.8334 with RSI(14) at 70.2 after a 76.9 peak, and ATR expanding to 10 pips.
Support: 0.8337, 0.83339, 0.8311
Resistance: 0.8361, 0.8400
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 0.8337 prior high and ema20 would mark the breakout as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8311 Thursday low breaks the higher-low trendline sequence
Close above the 0.8361 week high opens the path to the 0.8400 round number
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC tonight and US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
19:02 UTC
Uptrend, overbought into week high · RSI 74 · price 0.83578
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday's 0.8174 low; NY break above Wednesday's high.
USDCHF has climbed about 185 pips off Tuesday's 0.8174 London-open low. The hot US CPI print drove the leg higher through NY hours on Tuesday and Wednesday as Fed hike bets firmed. Thursday's London dip found the EMA(20) area, with the swing low at 0.8311, and the NY session then broke Wednesday's 0.8337 prior high to a week high at 0.8361. RSI(14) is overbought at 74.2 after a higher peak than Wednesday's, so there is no bearish divergence, and ATR has expanded to 10.1 pips, with 0.8400 psych the next round number above.
Support: 0.8337, 0.83319, 0.83114
Resistance: 0.83614, 0.8400
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 0.8337 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the 0.8311 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low sequence
Rejection at the 0.8361 week high with RSI rolling below 70 points to a pullback toward the ema20 at 0.8332
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC and US PPI on Friday at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Acceptance above the week high puts the 0.8400 psych level in view
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday, fresh breakout to week high.
USDCHF has added about 185 pips since Tuesday's 0.8174 low. The leg began with the hot US CPI print in the NY session and was extended by Fed hike repricing through Wednesday. Thursday's London dip held at the 0.8311 swing low, above a rising ema50, before NY hours pushed through Wednesday's 0.8337 prior high to a week high at 0.8361, with RSI 76.9 overbought and ATR expanding to 10.5 pips.
Support: 0.83374, 0.83293, 0.83114
Resistance: 0.83609, 0.8400
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 0.8337 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the ema20 at 0.8329 and then the 0.8311 swing low would break the higher-low trendline from Tuesday
Acceptance above the 0.8361 week high leaves the 0.8400 round number as the next reference
Fed's Daly and Schmid within the hour, Williams later, and Friday's PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
17:01 UTC
Uptrend, stretched at week high · RSI 73 · price 0.83479
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday's 0.8174 low.
From a week open near 0.8193 and Tuesday's London low at 0.8174, the dominant leg came in NY hours on the US CPI beat and carried through Wednesday's London-NY transition to 0.8337. Thursday's London dip to the 0.8311 thu low briefly undercut EMA(20) but held well above EMA(50), and the NY session then cleared the Wednesday high to a fresh week high at 0.8354, with ATR(14) expanding to 10.1 pips. RSI(14) at 72.7 is overbought but below the ~80 printed at Wednesday's peak, a bearish divergence against the higher price high.
Support: 0.83374, 0.83262, 0.83114
Resistance: 0.8354, 0.8400
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 0.8337 wed high would turn the NY breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8311 thu low breaks the higher-lows sequence; ema20 at 0.8326 is the first test on a pullback
Acceptance above the 0.8354 week high opens the path toward the 0.8400 round number
Fed's Daly and Schmid within the next 90 minutes, and Williams later tonight, could shift this read
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the main event risk for the CPI rally structure
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday; fresh breakout above Wednesday's high.
USDCHF is about 150 pips above Monday's 0.8193 weekly open. The impulse began in NY hours after Tuesday's US CPI beat and extended through Wednesday on hawkish Fed repricing. Thursday's London dip to the 0.8311 swing low was absorbed, and the NY session broke Wednesday's 0.8337 prior high to a week high at 0.8354, with price above EMA(20) and ATR expanding to 10.1 pips. RSI(14) at 72.1 is overbought but below Wednesday's ~81 reading, a bearish divergence on the new high.
Support: 0.8337, 0.83239, 0.83114
Resistance: 0.8354, 0.8400
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 0.8337 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
A pullback holding the ema20 at 0.8324 keeps the higher-low sequence intact
Failure to hold the 0.8311 swing low (near the 23.6% of the week impulse) breaks the higher lows
Close above the 0.8354 week high opens the path to the 0.8400 round number
Goolsbee 16:30 UTC, then Daly, Schmid and Williams today, plus US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday; marginal new week high with weaker RSI.
USDCHF has climbed roughly 165 pips this week. The move started from a 0.8174 base set in Monday and Tuesday London, and the CPI rally came in two legs: Tuesday's hot US CPI print, then Wednesday's London-to-NY extension as Fed hike pricing firmed. Thursday's London dip to the 0.8311 swing low held near a rising EMA(20) and the rising support line, and NY has since pushed back to a marginal week high at 0.8341. RSI(14) at 69.3 sits well below Wednesday's 81 reading at a higher price, a bearish divergence, with ATR edging up to 9.5 pips.
Support: 0.83215, 0.83114, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83405, 0.8350
What it said to watch
H1 closes holding above the 0.8341 week high would confirm a fresh higher high and bring the 0.8350 round number into view despite the RSI divergence
A close below EMA(20) at 0.8322 and the rising support line would shift the read toward a deeper pullback within the CPI rally
Failure to hold the 0.8311 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.8300 round number
Fedspeak from Goolsbee (16:30 UTC), Daly, Schmid and Williams later today could move December hike pricing and this read
US PPI on Friday at 13:30 UTC is the high-impact catalyst for the next USD leg
Post-impulse range 0.8311–0.8337 above rising EMAs.
USD/CHF based near 0.8174 on Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday's hotter-than-expected US CPI then set off a NY-session impulse that ran through Wednesday's London and NY sessions to a 0.8337 week high. Since then the pair has held a tight 0.8311–0.8337 band: the London dip to the 0.8311 Thu low was bought back above the EMA(20) at 0.8320 into the claims release, and RSI(14) has eased from above 80 to 62.7 without a lower low on the rising support line. The EMA(50) at 0.8293 and the 38.2% CPI impulse fib near 0.8275 sit well below as deeper markers.
Support: 0.83195, 0.83114, 0.82932
Resistance: 0.83374, 0.8350
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8337 week high would extend the trend, with 0.8350 the next round number
H1 close below the 0.8311 Thu low breaks the rising support line and opens the EMA(50) near 0.8293
Fedspeak through today (Barr in ~1h, Williams 23:30 UTC) could materially shift Fed December-hike pricing
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the high-impact risk for this read
Tight consolidation under week high after impulsive leg.
After a choppy start around the 0.8193 weekly open, Tuesday's hotter US CPI print kicked off a CPI impulse of roughly 163 pips, from the 0.8174 week low to the 0.8337 week high late in Wednesday's NY session. Since then price has been confined to a 0.8311–0.8336 band through Thursday's Asia and London sessions, with RSI(14) unwinding from 85 to about 60 and ATR compressing to 8.6 pips. The London dip to the 0.8311 Thursday low slipped briefly under a flattening EMA(20) at 0.8319 and recovered, keeping the pullback above the 23.6% fib near 0.8300.
Support: 0.8319, 0.8311, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.8337
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8337 week high breaks the range top and resumes the CPI impulse
Failure to hold the 0.8311 Thursday low exposes the 23.6% fib at 0.8300
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 GMT and Fedspeak from 14:00 GMT could break the compressed range
Friday's 13:30 GMT US PPI is the larger catalyst for December Fed hike repricing
After twin London lows near 0.8174 on Monday and Tuesday, the hot US CPI print drove a ~160-pip impulse into Wednesday's NY session. The move topped at the 0.8337 week high, which capped a second attempt in today's Asia session. London has since eased to a 0.8311 London low, slipping below the rally trendline. Price sits just above ema20 at 0.8318 with RSI(14) back to 57 from mid-80s readings, and ATR(14) has compressed from 10.2 to 8.5 pips as the pause matures.
Support: 0.8318, 0.83114, 0.82905
Resistance: 0.8323, 0.83374
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8311 London low loses the 0.8310-0.8315 prior-high zone and exposes ema50 at 0.8291, then the 38.2% fib near 0.8275
Close above the 0.8323 lower high, then the 0.8337 week high, would resume the post-CPI uptrend
Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fed speaker slate from 14:00 UTC could reprice December hike odds and shift this read
US PPI on Friday at 13:30 UTC is the main event risk for the week's structure
11:02 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from week high · RSI 54 · price 0.83154
Post-CPI impulse stalling; lower highs since Asia.
USDCHF climbed about 160 pips off Tuesday's 0.8174 low as the hot US CPI print drove Fed hike repricing, and the CPI rally carried through Wednesday's London and NY sessions to a 0.8337 week high. Thursday's Asia retest stalled at 0.8336 for a small double top, with RSI(14) at 68 against 80 at the first high (a bearish divergence), and London has since slipped below the ema20 at 0.8318 to a 0.8311 session low. ATR compressing to 8.6 pips and RSI easing to 53.5 read as a shallow pullback that has not yet reached the fib 23.6 level at 0.8299, with the ema50 at 0.8289 still rising beneath.
Support: 0.83114, 0.82988, 0.82893
Resistance: 0.83178, 0.83374
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8311 session low opens the fib 23.6 at 0.8299 and the 0.8300 handle
Reclaim of the ema20 at 0.8318 and a break of Thursday's lower highs would weaken the double top read
A close above the 0.8337 week high invalidates the double top and resumes the CPI rally structure
Loss of the ema50 at 0.8289 would break the week's higher-low sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and a heavy Fedspeak slate today could materially shift this read
Friday's US PPI is the week's high-impact USD catalyst
Consolidation after CPI impulse, testing London low.
The week's dominant leg ran from Tuesday's 0.8174 London low through the hot US CPI print and a second NY-hours push on Wednesday to the 0.8337 week high, about 160 pips. Thursday's Asia high at 0.8336 stalled just under it, and London has since drifted back toward 0.8315. That slipped price under the rally line and left it fractionally below a flattening EMA(20) at 0.8318, while RSI(14) has unwound from 87 to 55 without reaching oversold. ATR easing from 10.4 to 8.7 pips fits consolidation below the week high rather than an impulsive reversal, with price still well above the rising EMA(50).
Support: 0.8315, 0.8296, 0.82882
Resistance: 0.8318, 0.83374
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8315 london low would complete a double top under the week high and expose the 0.8296 breakout base
Failure at 0.8296 brings the ema50 at 0.8288 and the 38.2% fib of the CPI impulse near 0.8275 into view
Reclaim of the ema20 and a close above the 0.8337 week high would resume the uptrend structure
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could shift this read; Friday's PPI is the larger risk
Post-CPI impulse higher, now a tight range below the week high.
USDCHF climbed from Tuesday's 0.8174 week low, with the hot US CPI beat driving the CPI impulse through the NY session and Wednesday's NY push printing the 0.8337 week high. Since then price has rotated in a 0.8315–0.8337 consolidation, with Thursday's Asia retest of the week high falling just short, RSI(14) unwinding from the mid-80s to 57.7 and ATR easing to 8.9 pips. Price sits marginally above a flattening EMA(20) at 0.8318 and well clear of EMA(50) at 0.8287, after the range floor was tested again at London open.
Support: 0.83181, 0.8315, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83374
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8337 week high resumes the uptrend out of consolidation
H1 close below the 0.8315 range floor exposes the 0.8300 psych level
Loss of 0.8300 opens the 38.2% CPI impulse fib near 0.8275
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers through NY hours could materially shift this read
08:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling under week high · RSI 58 · price 0.83213
Impulsive Tue-Wed leg, now a tight 0.8317-0.8337 range above the breakout.
After a double base near 0.8174 on Monday and Tuesday, the hot US CPI print turned Tuesday's NY session into a breakout through 0.8200. Wednesday's London and NY sessions extended the move to a 0.83374 week high on broad USD strength. Since then price has held a 20-pip range between 0.8317 and 0.8337, and the Asia-session retest of the week high at 0.83363 came with RSI(14) at 73 versus 85 on the original peak. RSI has since cooled to 58.4, and the ema20 at 0.8318 is now flattening into the range floor, which the London open tested.
Support: 0.83179, 0.8300, 0.82857
Resistance: 0.83374, 0.8350
What it said to watch
H1 close below the ema20 and the 0.8317 range floor exposes the 0.8300 breakout area flagged as prior resistance
H1 close above the 0.83374 week high resumes the uptrend sequence, with 0.8350 round number next
Failure at the 0.8300 breakout opens a deeper retracement toward the ema50 near 0.8286 and the 38.2% fib of the Tue-Wed rally around 0.8275
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
The week opened near 0.8193 and held a 0.8174–0.8227 range through Monday and Tuesday. The hot US CPI print in Tuesday's NY session broke the pair out of that range, and Wednesday's London-NY extension of the CPI impulse set the week high at 0.8337. Since then price has compressed between the 0.8317 Asian low and the week high, holding above EMA(20) at 0.8318. RSI(14) has cooled from 87 to 68.3, and Thursday's Asia retest of the week high came with a lower RSI reading, a bearish divergence, while ATR eases to 8.7 pips.
Support: 0.8317, 0.8300, 0.82843
Resistance: 0.83374, 0.8350
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 0.8337 week high clears the divergence and opens the 0.8350 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8317 Asian low and EMA(20) exposes the 0.8300 psych level and the 38.2% CPI impulse fib near 0.8313
A deeper pullback toward the EMA(50) at 0.8284 would mark a break of the consolidation
Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Impulsive higher highs Tue–Wed, now a tight consolidation under 0.8337.
USD/CHF has run roughly 160 pips off Tuesday's London-open low at 0.8174. The hot US CPI print in Tuesday's NY session and Wednesday's follow-through carried it through the 0.8300–0.8315 zone to a week high at 0.8337 in NY hours. Since then the pair has stalled in a 20-pip band, with Thursday's Asia session printing a near-equal high at 0.8336. RSI(14) eased from 87 to 65 after a lower RSI peak at the week high, and ATR(14) has compressed to 8.8 pips, while price holds above EMA(20) at 0.8316 and the asia low at 0.8317.
Support: 0.8317, 0.8300, 0.82824
Resistance: 0.83374, 0.8382
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8317 asia low and EMA(20) exposes 0.8300 broken res, near the 23.6% fib of the Tuesday–Wednesday rally
Failure to hold 0.8300 broken res would mark exhaustion of the CPI rally and opens EMA(50) near 0.8282
H1 close above the 0.8337 week high clears the double high and opens the 0.8382 upside ref
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC (Hammack, Barr, Daly, Williams) could materially shift this read; core PPI follows Friday
Higher highs and lows since Tuesday; 20-pip box under week high.
USD/CHF has climbed about 160 pips from Tuesday's 0.8174 London-open low, well clear of the 0.8193 weekly open. Hot US CPI drove the NY-session CPI leg, and Wednesday's NY open added a second push from the 0.8299 breakout level to a 0.8337 week high. Since then the pair has stalled in a tight box: the Asia session dipped to the 0.8317 asia low and recovered, while price holds above a rising EMA(20) at 0.8315. RSI(14) at 71 is still overbought but well off its 87 peak, a bearish divergence on the retest of the week high, and ATR is easing to 9 pips.
Support: 0.8317, 0.83153, 0.8299
Resistance: 0.83374, 0.8350
What it said to watch
Loss of the 0.8317 asia low and ema20 would complete a small double top under the week high
H1 close above the 0.8337 week high clears the cap and opens the 0.8350 round number
A drop below the 0.8299 breakout level brings the 38.2% fib of the CPI leg near 0.8275 into play
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers (Hammack, Daly, Williams) could materially shift this read
Post-impulse flag below week high, higher lows intact.
USDCHF has run roughly 160 pips since Tuesday's London-open low at 0.8174. The impulse came in two legs: hot US CPI in Tuesday's NY session, then a London-to-NY extension on Wednesday into the 0.8337 week high as the dollar hit fresh yearly highs on 50bp Fed bets. The last ten bars have formed a tight flag between the Asian low near 0.8317 and the week high, with price above EMA(20) at 0.8314 and on the rising trendline. RSI(14) at 72.5 is still overbought but has eased from 87 on Wednesday's push.
Support: 0.83137, 0.8300, 0.8268
Resistance: 0.83374, 0.8400
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8337 week high resolves the flag higher; the 0.8400 psych level is the next round figure
H1 close below EMA(20) at 0.8314 and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low sequence
Loss of the 0.8300 round number (23.6% fib of the impulse) exposes the 0.8268 cpi high near the 38.2% retracement
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the afternoon Fedspeak slate could materially shift this read
Core PPI on Friday is the next high-impact test of the 50bp repricing behind the move
USDCHF has climbed roughly 160 pips off Tuesday's twin lows at 0.8174. The hot US CPI print drove the impulse during Tuesday's NY session, and London into early NY on Wednesday extended it to the 0.8337 week high. Since then price has compressed in a 0.8317–0.8337 band with ATR(14) easing to 9.3 pips, and the Asian low at 0.8317 is holding on rising support just above EMA(20) at 0.8312. RSI(14) at 73.1 is still overbought but has cooled from an 87 peak.
Support: 0.8317, 0.83118, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83374, 0.8350
What it said to watch
An H1 close below EMA(20) at 0.8312 and the 0.8300 round number would break rising support and expose the 38.2% retracement of the CPI rally near 0.8275
A push through the 0.8337 week high toward the 0.8350 round number with RSI(14) below Wednesday's 85 reading would print a bearish RSI divergence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers (Hammack, Daly, Williams) could materially shift this read ahead of Friday's core PPI
USDCHF built a 160-pip impulse from Tuesday's 0.8174 London-open low, a double bottom with Monday's 0.8174 low. Waller's remarks and the hot US CPI beat drove it through Monday's 0.8227 high, and Wednesday's NY session extended it to a 0.8337 week high. Since then price has compressed in a roughly 20-pip Asian range above the 0.8317 Asia low, with RSI(14) cooling from 87 to 69, ATR(14) easing to 8.9 pips, and price still above EMA(20) at 0.8310, EMA(50) at 0.8274 and the 0.8300 round number.
Support: 0.8317, 0.83096, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83374, 0.8382
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8337 week high resumes the impulse, with 0.8382 the next level cited
Loss of the 0.8317 Asia low puts EMA(20) near 0.8310 and the 0.8300 round number in play as the first pullback test
A break below the rising trendline from Tuesday's low would signal the impulse is unwinding toward the 38.2% retracement near 0.8275
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fed-speaker slate during NY hours could shift this read; Friday's Core PPI is the larger catalyst
Higher lows since Tuesday; tight consolidation below the week high.
USDCHF is up nearly 130 pips from Sunday's 0.8193 week open. Both dominant legs came in NY hours: Tuesday's hot US CPI and Wednesday's extension to a week high at 0.8337, as the digest's Fed-SNB divergence theme stripped CHF support. Since then price has compressed in a 0.8317–0.8337 band, with the Asian low at 0.8317 holding. RSI(14) has unwound from 87 to 67, a mild bearish divergence printed at the high, and ATR has eased to 8.9 pips. Price still sits above the rising EMA(20) at 0.8308, and the higher-lows line drawn from Wednesday's Asia open tracks just beneath near 0.8300.
Support: 0.8317, 0.83082, 0.8268
Resistance: 0.83374, 0.8382
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8317 Asian low puts the ema20 at 0.8308 and the higher-lows line near 0.8300 in play
Failure to hold 0.8300 shifts focus to the 0.8268 tue high, near the 38.2% of the CPI impulse fib
Close above the 0.8337 week high resumes the uptrend, with 0.8382 the next level cited
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fedspeak slate (Williams 23:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since Tuesday, holding above the 0.8300 breakout.
USD/CHF has climbed about 160 pips from Tuesday's 0.8174 London-open low. Waller's remarks started the move, the hot US CPI print extended it during NY hours, and Wednesday's NY session carried price through the 0.8300 breakout area to a week high at 0.8337. Price holds above a rising EMA(20) at 0.8307, while RSI(14) has eased from 87 to 72, still overbought. ATR(14) has compressed to 8.9 pips as the Asia session holds the 0.8317 low along the rising support from Wednesday.
Support: 0.8317, 0.83071, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83374, 0.8382
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 0.8317 asia low and the ema20 at 0.8307 would print the first lower-low since the Tue–Wed impulse and break rising support
Loss of the 0.8300 breakout area brings the 38.2% retracement of the Tue–Wed impulse near 0.8275 into view
Close above the 0.8337 week high extends the trend; the next level cited is 0.8382
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fed speaker slate from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Friday's core PPI is the larger test