Tight 0.8245–0.8255 band below 0.8268 session high.
Waller's 50bp talk and the hot US CPI beat drove a 94-pip rally from the 0.8174 London low to a 0.8268 session high. Since late NY, price has bled back into a 0.8245–0.8255 band near the 23.6% fib, with ATR compressing to 3.5 pips. The rollover gap low at 0.8245 is holding, with price just under the ema20 at 0.8251 and above the ema50 at 0.8242, and RSI(14) neutral at 50.7.
Support: 0.8245, 0.82415, 0.8226
Resistance: 0.8255, 0.8268
What it said to watch
Bowman and Paulson speaking now (23:30 UTC); any endorsement of a 50bp December step or pushback against it could break the band
Failure to hold the 0.8245 gap low exposes the ema50 at 0.8242, then the 38.2% fib near 0.8232 and the cpi base at 0.8226
M15 close above the 0.8255 range top reopens the 0.8268 session high
Lower highs from NY high into tight 0.8245–0.8256 consolidation.
Hot US CPI and hawkish Fedspeak drove a rally from 0.8203 to the NY high at 0.8268. Price has since faded along a line of lower highs into a 0.8245–0.8256 consolidation, sitting just under a flat ema20 with the rising ema50 below at 0.8241. RSI(14) is neutral at 51.6 and ATR(14) has compressed to 3.7 pips as the Asia session opens.
Support: 0.82449, 0.82412, 0.82366
Resistance: 0.82507, 0.82556, 0.8268
What it said to watch
Bowman and Paulson speak at 23:30 UTC; 50bp endorsement or pushback could break the consolidation either side
M15 close below the 0.8245 session low and ema50 at 0.8241 exposes the cpi pullback low at 0.8237, near the 38.2% fib of the post-CPI rally
M15 close above the 0.8256 range top and the lower highs trendline reopens the 0.8268 NY high
Tight 0.8245–0.8255 consolidation below the 0.8268 CPI high.
USD/CHF ran from the 0.8174 London-open low to a 0.8268 CPI high on Waller's 50bp talk and the hot US CPI beat. It then faded into a tight 0.8245–0.8255 range through late NY, and early Asia opened with a small rollover gap to the 0.8245 gap low near the 23.6% fib. RSI(14) sits at 50 and ATR has compressed to 3.9 pips, with price just below the ema20 at 0.8251 and above the ema50 at 0.8241.
Support: 0.82449, 0.82409, 0.82321
Resistance: 0.8255, 0.8268
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could break the range compression
M15 close below the 0.8245 gap low exposes the ema50 at 0.8241, then the 38.2% fib at 0.8232
M15 close above the 0.8255 range top reopens the 0.8268 cpi high
Tight range under the NY high; rollover gap tested lower edge.
The hot US CPI print drove a NY-session leg from the 0.8174 London low to a 0.8268 NY high. Since then price has faded into a 0.8249–0.8255 range, with ATR(14) compressed to 3.8 pips. A rollover gap down then printed a 0.8245 rollover low just above the ema50 at 0.8241, with price below the ema20 and RSI(14) neutral at 47.6.
Support: 0.82449, 0.82405, 0.82111
Resistance: 0.8255, 0.8268
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could break the compressed range
Failure to hold the 0.8245 rollover low and the ema50 at 0.8241 exposes a deeper retrace of the London low–NY high leg toward the 0.8211 pre-cpi top
Close above the 0.8255 range top reopens the 0.8268 NY high
22:46 UTC
Post-CPI uptrend, pausing in a tight range · RSI 54 · price 0.82489
Shallow pullback from the NY high, ranging 0.8249–0.8255 below a descending line.
Hot US CPI took the pair from the 0.8204 area to a 0.8268 NY high, extending a London rally off 0.8174. Since then lower highs along the descending line have held price in a 0.8249–0.8255 range top. The rollover gap printed a 0.8245 low, and price now sits at the flat ema20 (0.8251) with RSI 53.9 neutral and ATR compressed to 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.82452, 0.82402
Resistance: 0.82512, 0.82556, 0.8268
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could break the compressed range
M15 close below the 0.8245 rollover low exposes ema50 at 0.8240 and deepens the CPI-leg retracement
Close above the 0.8255 range top and descending line reopens the 0.8268 NY high
Lower highs from the 0.8268 NY high; late-NY range 0.8249–0.8255, gap lower at the daily open.
Waller's comments and the hot US CPI drove a ~94-pip rally from the 0.8174 London-open low to a 0.8268 session high in NY. Since then the pair has made lower highs back to the 23.6% fib, held a late-NY range of 0.8249–0.8255, and opened the daily open with a gap lower to 0.8245. Price sits just under ema20 at 0.8251, RSI(14) has cooled from 75 to 48.7 and ATR(14) has compressed to 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.82452, 0.82398, 0.82366
Resistance: 0.82512, 0.8255, 0.8268
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson speak at 23:30 UTC (~1h); 50bp December hike talk could materially shift this read
M15 close above the range top at 0.8255 reclaims ema20 and breaks the lower-high sequence from the session high at 0.8268
Failure to hold the gap low at 0.8245 exposes ema50 at 0.8240 and the 0.8237 pullback low
22:16 UTC
Post-CPI uptrend, pulling back in late range · RSI 48 · price 0.82483
Lower highs off 0.8268, thin rollover gap below 0.8252.
Hot US CPI drove the pair from 0.8203 to a 0.8268 session high in NY. It has since bled into a tight 0.8250–0.8255 late range, with RSI(14) cooling from 76 to 48 and ATR down to 3.9 pips. A thin rollover gap to 0.8245 has dropped price below the ema20 at 0.8252 but kept it above the ema50 at 0.8239, about a 30% retrace of the CPI leg fib.
Support: 0.82452, 0.82394, 0.82368
Resistance: 0.82515, 0.8255, 0.8268
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC, in ~74 min, could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 0.8245 gap low exposes the ema50 at 0.8239, then the 0.8237 ny pullback low
M15 close back above the ema20 and the 0.8255 late range top reopens the 0.8268 session high
22:02 UTC
Uptrend after CPI, pausing in tight range · RSI 58 · price 0.82527
Post-CPI leg to 0.8268, shallow pullback into 0.8249–0.8255 box.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC broke the pre-data 0.8200–0.8211 range and carried price to a 0.8268 session high. Since then price has drifted into a tight 0.8249–0.8255 box after the NY close, holding the 23.6% of the cpi leg fib and sitting just above the ema20. RSI(14) has cooled from 77 to 57.6 and ATR has compressed to 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.8249, 0.82391
Resistance: 0.8255, 0.8268
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could break the compression and shift this read
M15 close below the 0.8249 swing low exposes the ema50 at 0.8239
Close above the 0.8255 range top reopens the 0.8268 session high
Tight consolidation above ema20 after lower drift from session high.
The hot US CPI print (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) drove a 65-pip leg from 0.8203 to the 0.8268 session high during NY hours. Since then RSI(14) has cooled from 77 to 59.5. Price is now coiling between the 0.8249 swing low and the 0.8255 range top, just above ema20 at 0.8252 and holding the 23.6% fib of the CPI leg, with ATR(14) compressed to 3.7 pips after the NY close.
Support: 0.82518, 0.82488, 0.82385
Resistance: 0.8255, 0.8268
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could break the quiet post-NY range
M15 close below the 0.8249 swing low exposes ema50 at 0.8239 and the 38.2% fib near 0.8243
Close above the 0.8255 range top puts the 0.8268 session high back in focus
Post-CPI high at 0.8268 faded into a tight 0.8249–0.8255 consolidation.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC broke the London range near 0.8210 and drove a 65-pip leg to the NY high at 0.8268. Price has since retraced about a third of that move and is coiling at 0.8249–0.8255, just above ema20. RSI(14) has cooled from 83 to 58, ATR(14) has compressed to 3.8 pips, and the 0.8249 swing low held late in NY hours.
Support: 0.82516, 0.82488, 0.82368
Resistance: 0.82556, 0.8268
What it said to watch
A break below the 0.8249 swing low and ema20 exposes the 38.2% CPI leg fib and the cpi pullback low at 0.8237.
An M15 close above the 0.8255 range top and fade line puts the 0.8268 NY high back in play.
Fed's Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC could break the current compression.
21:16 UTC
Uptrend, post-CPI momentum faded into a flat base · RSI 60 · price 0.82535
Shallow pullback from 0.8268 NY high stalling at 0.8249, compressing just above ema20.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC drove USD/CHF from 0.8203 to a 0.8268 NY high. RSI(14) has cooled from 82 to 60 as the pullback stalled at the 0.8249 swing low, roughly a 30% retrace of the CPI leg. Late-NY trade is basing just above a flattening ema20, with ATR compressed to 4 pips and the 0.8262 lower high capping the drift.
Support: 0.82488, 0.82373
Resistance: 0.82621, 0.8268
What it said to watch
Bowman/Paulson speak at 23:30 UTC; any 50bp December lean could materially shift this read
A break below the 0.8249 swing low puts the 38.2% CPI retrace near 0.8243 and the ema50 at 0.8237 in play
An M15 close above the 0.8262 lower high reopens the 0.8268 ny high
21:01 UTC
Post-CPI uptrend, pulling back and stalling · RSI 60 · price 0.82542
Shallow ~30% retrace of CPI leg, coiling above ema20.
The hot US CPI print drove a 65-pip CPI leg from 0.8203 to the 0.8268 session high. That move cleared the 0.8205-0.8210 area that had capped the Waller spike earlier. NY afternoon retraced about 30% to a 0.8249 swing low with RSI(14) cooling from 84 to 60, and price is now coiling just above a flattening ema20 at 0.8251 as ATR(14) compresses to 4.2 pips.
Support: 0.82512, 0.82488, 0.82366
Resistance: 0.82556, 0.8268
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8249 swing low breaks the pullback floor and exposes the rising ema50 near 0.8237
Break above the 0.8256 minor high reopens the 0.8268 session high
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could shift this read, especially any 25bp vs 50bp December language
Continued ATR compression with RSI near 60 points to range-bound drift into Asia session
20:45 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back · RSI 58 · price 0.82519
Post-CPI high at 0.8268, lower highs under a falling line.
Waller's 50bp remarks at 09:00 UTC reversed a London dip to 0.8174 below the Asian range, and the CPI beat extended the run to a 0.8268 session high in NY. Since then a flag-like pullback has drifted under a falling line to the 0.8249 swing low, which sits just above the cpi fib 38.2% at 0.8243. Price holds just above the flat ema20 near 0.8251, while RSI has cooled from 84 to 58 and ATR has compressed to 4.4 pips.
Support: 0.82488, 0.82431, 0.82352
Resistance: 0.82556, 0.8268
What it said to watch
M15 close above the falling line and the 0.8256 lower high ends the pullback read; 0.8268 session high is next
Failure to hold the 0.8249 swing low exposes the 38.2% fib (cpi fib) at 0.8243, then ema50 at 0.8235
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could shift the 25 vs 50bp December read and this structure
Lower highs off 0.8268 CPI high, holding flat ema20.
Hot US CPI (0.4% m/m, core 0.3%) broke the 0.8200–0.8211 pre-data range. The CPI leg then ran to the 0.8268 cpi high by 16:30 UTC, after Waller had already lifted the pair off the 0.8174 London low. Late NY has faded about 19 pips in lower highs to the 0.8249 pullback low, with price resting on a flat ema20 at 0.8251, RSI(14) cooled from 84 to 58 and ATR compressing to 4.4 pips.
Support: 0.82508, 0.82488, 0.82352
Resistance: 0.82556, 0.8268
What it said to watch
Bowman speaks at 20:30 UTC, then Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC. Backing for a 50bp December hike could materially shift this read.
An M15 close below the 0.8249 pullback low and ema20 exposes ema50 at 0.8235, near 50% of the CPI leg.
A close above the 0.8256 lower high and the fade line reopens the 0.8268 cpi high.
20:16 UTC
Post-CPI uptrend, pulling back · RSI 58 · price 0.8252
Lower highs off 0.8268 NY high, holding above ema20.
The hot US CPI at 13:30 UTC broke the 0.8205–0.8211 pre-CPI range and ran to a 0.8268 NY high. Since then price has drifted in a flag-like run of lower highs to a 0.8249 swing low. RSI(14) has cooled from 84 to 58 and ATR has compressed to 4.7 pips, with price sitting on a flat ema20 at 0.8251 into late NY.
Support: 0.82507, 0.82488, 0.82346
Resistance: 0.82556, 0.8268
What it said to watch
Bowman speaks at 20:30 UTC, with Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC; talk of a 50bp December hike could shift this read
M15 close above the 0.8256 lower high breaks the flag's lower-high sequence and puts the 0.8268 NY high back in view
Failure to hold the 0.8249 swing low opens the 38.2% CPI impulse fib near 0.8243, with ema50 at 0.8235 below
20:01 UTC
Post-CPI uptrend, pulling back into late NY · RSI 56 · price 0.82509
Impulse to 0.8268 then a lower-high/lower-low flag, price at flat EMA20.
The hot US CPI print (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) drove a 13:30 UTC breakout through the 0.8205–0.8210 cap to a 0.8268 session high, with RSI(14) peaking at 84. Late NY has drifted into a flag of lower highs, and price is now sitting just under a flat EMA20 with RSI cooled to 55.6 and ATR compressed to 4.7 pips; the pullback low at 0.8249 and the 38.2% fib near 0.8243 sit just below.
Support: 0.8249, 0.8243, 0.8234
Resistance: 0.8256, 0.8268
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (29 min) could materially shift this read: a nod to 50bp versus pushback toward 25bp is the swing factor
M15 close below 0.8243 (38.2% fib) opens the path to the EMA50 at 0.8234, near the 50% retracement
M15 close above the 0.8256 lower high breaks the flag, with the 0.8268 session high the next cap
19:46 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back into ema20 · RSI 58 · price 0.82512
Post-CPI impulse to 0.8268, then lower highs and lower lows through late NY.
Waller lifted USDCHF off the 0.8174 London-open low, and the hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) extended the move to a 0.8268 session high. Since then, lower highs after London close have pulled price back onto the ema20 at 0.8251, with RSI cooling from 84 to 58 and ATR compressing to 4.9 pips. The 38.2% fib of the post-CPI leg at 0.8243 sits just below.
Support: 0.82506, 0.82431, 0.82332
Resistance: 0.82564, 0.8268
What it said to watch
M15 close below the ema20 at 0.8251 and the 38.2% fib at 0.8243 opens the 50% retrace near 0.8236 and the ema50 at 0.8233
Close back above the 0.8256 minor high breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 0.8268 session high above
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (in ~44 min) could materially shift this read if she echoes 50bp talk or pushes back on it
19:31 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back in late NY · RSI 61 · price 0.82535
Post-CPI impulse to 0.8268, orderly lower-high drift onto ema20.
The hot US CPI print (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) drove USDCHF through the 0.8205-0.8210 cap to a 0.8268 session high in NY hours. Late NY has seen a controlled flag-like pullback to the 0.8252 swing low, sitting just above ema20 and at the 23.6% fib of the post-CPI rally. RSI(14) has cooled from 84 to 61 and ATR(14) has compressed to 5 pips.
Support: 0.8252, 0.82506, 0.8243
Resistance: 0.8260, 0.8268
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.8250 (swing low and ema20) opens the 38.2% fib at 0.8243
Failure to hold the 38.2% fib at 0.8243 brings ema50 near 0.8233 into view and weakens the uptrend read
Recovery above the 0.8260 lower high breaks the flag drift, with the 0.8268 session high next
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (~1h) could materially shift this read; a 50bp-leaning tone versus a pushback on 50bp is the swing factor
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC broke the London range top near 0.8210 and drove a 65-pip leg to the 0.8268 session high. Late NY has since drifted lower in a shallow flag of lower highs, with price holding the 0.8252 pullback low and the 23.6% fib just above the ema20 at 0.8250. RSI(14) has cooled from 84 to 62 and ATR(14) has compressed to 5.2 pips.
Support: 0.8252, 0.8250, 0.8237
Resistance: 0.8256, 0.8268
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8250 ema20 and 0.8252 pullback low exposes the 38.2% fib at 0.8243, then the 0.8237 swing low
A break of the lower-highs line through the 0.8256 lower high ends the flag sequence and puts the 0.8268 session high back in view
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
19:01 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back after post-CPI spike · RSI 62 · price 0.82536
Post-CPI breakout above 0.8211; lower highs off 0.8268 into ema20.
The hot US CPI beat (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the pair out of the 0.8200–0.8211 London high range. It ran to a 0.8268 NY high, and RSI(14) peaked at 84. Since then a chain of lower highs has pulled price back to the flattening ema20 at 0.8250 after London close, with ATR(14) compressing to 5.4 pips.
Support: 0.82499, 0.82435, 0.8211
Resistance: 0.8256, 0.8265, 0.8268
What it said to watch
M15 close below the ema20 near 0.8250 exposes the 0.8244 cpi pivot and the 38.2% fib near 0.8243.
A break back above the 0.8256 lower highs and the 0.8265 pullback top would reopen the 0.8268 NY high.
Loss of 0.8237 would turn the pullback into a deeper retracement toward the 50% fib near 0.8236 and the 0.8211 london high.
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could shift this read if she backs or pushes back on a 50bp December hike.
18:46 UTC
Post-CPI uptrend, pulling back · RSI 62 · price 0.82533
Breakout above 0.8211, now lower highs off 0.8268.
The hot US CPI beat broke the 0.8200–0.8211 post-Waller range and drove a 65-pip CPI leg to a 0.8268 session high. Since then price has stepped lower in a run of lower highs, with RSI(14) cooling from 84 to 61.6 and ATR easing to 5.6 pips. Price sits at 0.8253, just above the ema20 at 0.82495 and near the 23.6% retracement of the CPI leg.
Support: 0.82495, 0.82431, 0.82368
Resistance: 0.82621, 0.8268
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the ema20 at 0.82495 opens the 38.2% fib at 0.8243 and the 0.8237 swing low
Failure to hold the 0.8237 swing low would put the post-CPI breakout in question
A reclaim of the 0.8262 lower high ends the pullback read; the 0.8268 session high sits above
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:31 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back after CPI impulse · RSI 66 · price 0.82553
The hot US CPI beat at 13:30 UTC broke the 0.8205–0.8210 London range cap and ran to a session high at 0.8268, with RSI(14) peaking at 84.2. Late in the NY session, after London close, price is drifting lower on compressing ATR (5.8 pips) and RSI back to 66.3, still above the ema20 at 0.8249, with the 0.8245 prior high sitting near the 38.2% fib of the CPI leg.
Support: 0.8249, 0.8245, 0.8229
Resistance: 0.8268, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the ema20 at 0.8249 exposes the 0.8245 prior high and the 38.2% fib of the CPI leg
Failure to hold the ema50 at 0.8229 would unwind most of the post-CPI breakout
Close above the 0.8268 session high resumes the higher-high chain toward the 0.8300 round number
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:16 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling after CPI leg · RSI 70 · price 0.82594
Post-CPI breakout, now drifting in lower highs below session high.
The hot US CPI beat at 13:30 UTC broke the 0.8200–0.8211 pre-data range top, and NY extended the CPI leg to a 0.8268 session high. A run of lower highs has since eased price to 0.8259, with RSI(14) cooling from 84 to 70 and ATR(14) slipping to 6 pips. Price still holds above the ema20 at 0.8248.
Support: 0.82484, 0.82368, 0.82111
Resistance: 0.82631, 0.8268
What it said to watch
M15 close below the ema20 at 0.8248 points to a deeper retrace of the CPI leg, toward the 38.2% near 0.8243
Failure to hold the 0.8237 swing low breaks the post-CPI higher-low chain
A close above the 0.8263 lower high and the 0.8268 session high resumes the uptrend
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, about 2h away, could reprice the 50bp hike debate
Range top at 0.8211 is the line that keeps the CPI breakout intact
Post-CPI breakout, late-NY consolidation under session high.
Hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the 0.8205–0.8211 pre-CPI high and drove a 65-pip NY rally to a 0.8268 session high. Late NY is consolidating just above the 0.8260 pullback low, with RSI(14) still overbought at 73.4 but cooling from 84, and ATR easing to 6.1 pips. Price holds above the ema20 at 0.8247, which sits near the 38.2% fib of the CPI leg.
Support: 0.8260, 0.82473, 0.8211
Resistance: 0.8268, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8260 pullback low exposes the ema20 at 0.8247 and the 38.2% fib near 0.8243
Close above the 0.8268 session high resumes the leg toward the 0.8300 round number
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC: 50bp December framing could extend the move, while 25bp framing risks fading the CPI bounce
Return below the 0.8211 pre-CPI high would mark the breakout as a false break
The hot US core CPI at 13:30 UTC broke the pre-data 0.8200–0.8211 range. The move ran about 65 pips to a 0.8268 session high. After London close, price is holding a tight 0.8260–0.8268 band, with the consol low intact so far. RSI(14) has cooled from 84 to 75 and ATR has eased to 6.4 pips.
Support: 0.8260, 0.82459, 0.8237
Resistance: 0.8268, 0.8300
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.8260 consol low exposes the ema20 near 0.8246, which sits close to the 38.2% level of the CPI leg fib
Failure to hold the 0.8237 pullback low (50% of the CPI leg fib) breaks the higher-low chain
A close above the 0.8268 session high opens the 0.8300 psych level
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC; 50bp-vs-25bp framing could materially shift this read
Post-CPI higher highs and higher lows, stalling under session high.
The hot US CPI print (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the 0.8205–0.8211 pre-CPI cap and carried price to a 0.8268 session high during NY hours. RSI(14) has cooled from 84 to 76.5 and ATR is easing to 6.6 pips as price holds a tight band above the 0.8262 pullback low, about 18 pips over the ema20 at 0.8244.
Support: 0.8262, 0.82442, 0.8237
Resistance: 0.8268, 0.8300
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.8262 pullback low opens the ema20 at 0.8244, which sits on the CPI rally 38.2% fib
Failure to hold the 0.8237 swing low (near the 50% fib) breaks the post-CPI higher-low chain
A close above the 0.8268 session high exposes the 0.8300 psych level
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could shift this read on 25bp vs 50bp December framing
The rising trendline from the London low near 0.8178 sits well below price and stays intact while lows hold
Stepped higher highs and higher lows since CPI; stalling below session high.
Hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the 0.8200–0.8211 pre-data London range and drove a stepped NY rally to a 0.8268 session high. After London close, price is stalling just under that high with RSI(14) cooling from 84 to 76.9 and ATR easing to 6.8 pips. Pullbacks have held a rising support line, and the 0.8237 swing low and ema20 at 0.8242 sit near the 50% and 38.2% retracements of the CPI leg fib.
Support: 0.8262, 0.82423, 0.8237
Resistance: 0.8268, 0.8300
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8268 session high opens the path to the 0.8300 round number
A break of the 0.8262 pullback low plus a close under the rising support line would print the first lower-low since CPI
Holding ema20 at 0.8242 and the 0.8237 swing low (38.2–50% cpi leg fib) keeps the stepped uptrend intact
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC: 50bp vs 25bp December framing could materially shift this read
Post-CPI breakout above London range, higher highs into NY.
The hot US CPI print (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the 0.8200–0.8211 London range top and drove a steady NY climb to a 0.8268 session high. After London close price is holding near 0.8265, just above the 0.8262 pullback low, with RSI(14) easing from 84 to 77 and ATR at 7.1 pips. The 38.2% of the CPI leg sits near 0.8243, close to ema20 at 0.8240.
Support: 0.8262, 0.82401, 0.82111
Resistance: 0.8268, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8262 pullback low points to a deeper retrace of the CPI leg toward ema20 at 0.8240
Close above the 0.8268 session high opens the path to the 0.8300 psych level
Return below the 0.8211 range top would unwind the CPI breakout
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC: framing of 25bp vs 50bp in December could materially shift this read
16:46 UTC
Uptrend, RSI overbought · RSI 83 · price 0.82658
Post-CPI breakout, higher highs and higher lows.
The hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the 0.8200–0.8211 pre-data range top. NY hours have since stair-stepped to a 0.8268 session high, about 94 pips off the 0.8174 low near London open. RSI(14) at 82.7 is overbought with ATR at 7.3 pips, and the CPI trendline runs up under the prior high at 0.8244 and the ema20 at 0.8238.
Support: 0.8244, 0.82377, 0.8211
Resistance: 0.82679, 0.8300
What it said to watch
A close back below the 0.8244 prior high would break the higher-low chain built since the CPI bar
Loss of the ema20 and CPI trendline near 0.8238 exposes the 0.8211 range top, close to the 50% fib of the rally
Acceptance above the 0.8268 session high opens the 0.8300 round number
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC, could shift this read
Post-CPI breakout, HH/HL chain through NY session.
Hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the 0.8201–0.8211 cpi base, and the NY session has stacked higher highs and higher lows along a rising trendline, clearing the 0.8245 prior high on the way to a 0.8267 session high. RSI(14) at 82 is stretched after an 84 peak, and the latest bar is stalling just under the high, with ATR(14) at 7.5 pips.
Support: 0.8245, 0.82346, 0.8211
Resistance: 0.8267, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8245 prior high puts the post-CPI breakout under pressure and exposes the ema20 near 0.8235
Break of the rising trendline (around 0.8251) ends the HH/HL chain
Clearance of the 0.8267 session high leaves the 0.8300 round number as the next reference
Return inside the 0.8211 cpi base would unwind the CPI breakout read
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC, could shift this read
The hot US CPI print (core 0.3% vs 0.2% forecast) broke the 0.8200–0.8211 London range at 13:30 UTC. Price has since stacked higher highs and higher lows along the post-CPI trendline to a 0.8267 session high. RSI(14) at 84.2 is stretched, ATR is 7.7 pips, and price trades well above ema20 at 0.8231.
Support: 0.8245, 0.8237, 0.8231
Resistance: 0.8267, 0.8300
What it said to watch
A failure to hold the 0.8245 prior high would break the post-CPI trendline and the HH/HL chain.
The 0.8237 swing low sits in the 38.2–50% zone of the CPI rally fib. A break there exposes ema20 at 0.8231.
A close above the 0.8267 session high keeps the 0.8300 round number in view.
Fed's Bowman (20:30 UTC) and Paulson (23:30 UTC) on the 25 vs 50bp December question could shift this read.
The hot US CPI print (core 0.3% vs 0.2% f/c) broke the pre-CPI range top at 0.8211. NY hours extended a HH/HL chain to a session high at 0.8262, with RSI(14) overbought at 82.5 and ATR(14) widening to 7.7 pips. Price sits well above the ema20 at 0.8228, and the prior high at 0.8244 and swing low at 0.8237 are the first pullback references.
Support: 0.8244, 0.8237, 0.82277
Resistance: 0.8262, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the swing low at 0.8237 breaks the rally trendline and the HH/HL chain; holding the prior high at 0.8244 keeps it intact
Acceptance above the session high at 0.8262 opens the path to the 0.8300 round number; rejection there with RSI rolling over from 82.5 points to a deeper CPI leg fib retracement
A pullback toward the ema20 near 0.8228 would be the first test of the post-CPI breakout
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, followed by Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read on the 25 vs 50bp question
Higher highs and higher lows since the 13:30 UTC CPI spike.
The hot US CPI print (core 0.3% vs 0.2% forecast) broke USD/CHF out of its 0.8200–0.8211 range and through the pre-cpi high. The pair has pushed to a 0.8254 session high in NY hours, with rising lows at 0.8226 and 0.8237 and ATR(14) up to 7.5 pips from about 5. RSI(14) at 80.2 is stretched, and price sits well above the ema20 at 0.8224.
Support: 0.82368, 0.82243, 0.82111
Resistance: 0.82539
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.8237 swing low breaks the rising-lows chain off the CPI leg
A failure to clear the 0.8254 session high with RSI above 80 would mark a short-term rejection
A pullback into the ema20 at 0.8224 tests the 38.2–50% zone of the CPI leg fib
A return below the 0.8211 pre-cpi high would unwind the breakout read
Fed's Bowman speaks at 20:30 UTC, about 4.7h away; any 25 vs 50bp hike signal could shift this read
The hot US CPI beat (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the pre-CPI range top at 0.8211 and yesterday's prior high at 0.8225. Since then, the NY session has built a HH/HL chain along a post-CPI trendline up to the 0.8252 session high. RSI(14) is overbought at 76.5, off a 79.7 peak, and ATR has expanded to 7.3 pips from 5.0, with price well above both EMAs.
Support: 0.82368, 0.82249, 0.82111
Resistance: 0.8252, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8237 swing low breaks the post-CPI trendline and the HL chain
Return under the 0.8225 prior high, with ema20 at 0.8221 just below, would mark the CPI breakout as failing; 0.8211 range top is the next pivot
Close above the 0.8252 session high opens the 0.8300 psych level
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC on 25 vs 50bp could materially shift this read
Pre-CPI range top broken; higher lows from the London low.
Hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the pre-CPI range top at 0.8211. That extended the Waller-led rebound off the 0.8174 London low to a 0.8240 session high. RSI(14) at 77.3 is overbought and ATR has expanded to 7.4 pips. The post-CPI higher low at 0.8226 is the first shelf, with price well above the ema20 at 0.8214.
Support: 0.82256, 0.82137, 0.82111
Resistance: 0.82404, 0.8250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8226 higher low exposes the ema20 and range top near 0.8211–0.8214
Close back inside the pre-CPI range below 0.8211 would mark the breakout as a false break
Acceptance above the 0.8240 session high opens the 0.8250 round number
Fed's Bowman speaks in ~6h and could materially shift this read
Post-CPI breakout above London range and prior-day high, consolidating just under the high.
The hot US CPI print (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke USDCHF out of the 0.8200–0.8211 range top that London had built after Waller's 50bp talk lifted it off the 0.8174 London low. Early NY session is holding above Monday's 0.8227 prior high and just under the 0.8235 CPI high, with RSI(14) overbought at 73.4 and ATR expanding to 7.1 pips.
Support: 0.8227, 0.8211, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.8235, 0.8250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8235 CPI high opens the 0.8250 round number
Close back below the 0.8227 prior high turns the breakout into a false break and targets the 0.8211 range top, where EMA20 sits
Loss of the rising trendline from the London low exposes the 61.8% fib of the London low-to-CPI high leg near 0.8197
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (in about 6h) could materially shift this read on 50bp December hike talk
Post-CPI breakout above pre-CPI range and prior high.
The hot US CPI print (core 0.3% vs 0.2% forecast) broke the 0.8200–0.8211 post-Waller range in the first hour of NY. USD/CHF cleared yesterday's 0.8227 prior high and set a 0.8235 cpi high, with RSI(14) at 72.9, overbought, and ATR expanding to 7.1 pips. The 38.2% fib of the London-CPI leg lines up with the 0.8211 range top.
Support: 0.82267, 0.82108, 0.82005
Resistance: 0.82351, 0.8250
What it said to watch
A close back below the 0.8227 prior high would turn the CPI breakout into a false break
A hold of the 0.8211 range top on a retest keeps the breakout intact; a loss of it exposes the 0.8200 range low
A clean break above the 0.8235 cpi high opens the 0.8250 round number
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC on the 50bp December question could materially shift this read
Breakout above London range and prior high, higher lows since London open.
A hot US CPI print (headline 0.4% vs 0.3% forecast, core 0.3% vs 0.2%) lifted USD/CHF out of the 0.8200–0.8211 London range and through the prior high at 0.8227. It printed a 0.8232 CPI high in the first half-hour of NY. RSI(14) at 72.7 is overbought, ATR has expanded to 6.9 pips, and the higher lows from the 0.8174 London-open low remain intact along the CPI leg.
Support: 0.82267, 0.82111, 0.82071
Resistance: 0.82323, 0.8250
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.8227 prior high would mark the CPI breakout as a false break
A return under the 0.8211 London high and the ema20 at 0.8207 puts price back inside the pre-CPI range
Acceptance above the 0.8232 CPI high exposes the 0.8250 round number
Higher lows from London low 0.8174; 0.8200–0.8211 range broken higher.
Hot US CPI (headline 0.4% vs 0.3%, core 0.3% vs 0.2%) drove USD/CHF out of its 0.8200–0.8211 range to a 0.8229 cpi high, briefly clearing yesterday's prior high at 0.8227. Price is holding just below that high in the first hour of NY with RSI(14) at 70.5 and ATR(14) up to 6.6 pips. The higher-low chain from the London low at 0.8174 is intact, with the ema20 at 0.8205 and the 38.2% fib near 0.8208 sitting under the old range top.
Support: 0.82111, 0.82048, 0.82005
Resistance: 0.82267, 0.82288
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8211 range top would turn the CPI move into a false break
Acceptance above the 0.8229 cpi high clears the prior high and the 0.8205–0.8210 resistance zone noted in the CHF digest
A break of the 0.8200 range low and the ema20 would end the higher-low sequence from the London low
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could shift the read
13:31 UTC
Intraday higher lows from London low, CPI spike higher · RSI 54 · price 0.82252
CPI bar breaking above 0.8200–0.8211 range, probing prior high.
London sold to a 0.8174 London low before Waller's hawkish remarks at 09:00 UTC lifted the pair into a 0.8200–0.8211 range above the ema20 and ema50. The still-forming US CPI bar has broken the range top and swept the prior high at 0.8227 into a 0.8229 CPI high, a roughly 25-pip move against a 5.1-pip ATR. RSI 54.3 predates the spike.
Support: 0.82111, 0.82028, 0.82005
Resistance: 0.82267, 0.82285
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8211 range top would mark the CPI break as a false break
M15 close above the 0.8229 CPI high holds the move beyond the prior high at 0.8227
Failure of the ema20 at 0.8203 and the 0.8200 range low unwinds the post-Waller structure
CPI m/m and core detail once printed could materially shift this read. Bowman speaks at 20:30 UTC
13:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, compressing under session high · RSI 61 · price 0.82092
Higher lows below a flat 0.8211 cap, above the Asian high.
Waller's hawkish remarks at 11:00 UTC lifted USD/CHF from the 0.8174 london low through the 0.8201 asian high. Since then, higher lows at 0.8200 and 0.8204 have pressed against a flat 0.8211 session high, which sits inside the 0.8205–0.8210 resistance cited in the macro read. Price holds above both EMAs, RSI(14) 60.5 and ATR(14) has compressed to 5 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.8204, 0.8201, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.8211, 0.8227
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) will likely blow through the 5-pip ATR and could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.8211 session high opens the path to the 0.8227 monday high
Break of the 0.8204 higher low, then a close back below the 0.8201 asian high, would reopen the move toward the 0.8174 london low
London's dip below the Asian range to the 0.8174 session low reversed after Waller's hawkish remarks at 09:00 UTC. Price has since held a narrow 0.8200–0.8211 range just above the ema20 (0.8202), with ATR(14) easing from 6.3 to 5.1 pips ahead of US CPI. Supply has capped the session high twice near 0.8211, in line with the 0.8205–0.8210 resistance flagged into the data.
Support: 0.8201, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.8211, 0.8227
What it said to watch
US CPI in 29 min (core m/m f/c 0.2%) is likely to break the range low or session high
A close above the 0.8211 session high opens the prior high at 0.8227
A close below the 0.8201 range low and the ema20 exposes the 38.2% retrace of the London-to-session-high rally near 0.8197
ADP 4-week average in 14 min may move price inside the range before CPI
London range break higher, now compressing under session high.
London swept the Asian range low to the 0.8174 london low, then Waller's hawkish remarks drove a 30-pip break above the Asian high. Since then the session high at 0.8211 has capped three tests. Higher lows at 0.8200 and 0.8204 hold above both EMAs, while RSI(14) has cooled from 69.5 to 56.2 and ATR has compressed to 5.3 pips into the London-NY transition.
Support: 0.82005, 0.81977, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.82111, 0.82267
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%), with ADP 4-week average at 13:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.8211 session high opens the path to the 0.8227 prior high
Failure to hold the 0.8200 swing low breaks the higher lows and exposes the ema50 at 0.8198, near the 38.2% of the london rally
Loss of the 50% london rally retracement near 0.8193 puts the 0.8174 london low back in focus
12:31 UTC
Recovery stalled, flat into US CPI · RSI 57 · price 0.82043
Post-Waller range 0.8200–0.8211, above Asian range.
Waller's hawkish remarks at 09:00 UTC reversed the London-open drop to the 0.8174 london low, which had broken below the Asian range, and lifted USDCHF through the Asian high. Since then price has held a tight 0.8200–0.8211 range, with the range top twice capping near the 0.8205–0.8210 resistance band. Price sits mid-range above both EMAs, RSI(14) at 57 and ATR(14) at 5.3 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.82005, 0.81975, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.82111, 0.82267
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~60 min) is the dominant catalyst; ADP 4-week average at 13:15 UTC adds early noise
M15 close above the 0.8211 range top opens the path to the 0.8227 monday high
M15 close below the 0.8200 range low exposes the ema50 at 0.8197 and the 38.2% fib of the London low-to-range top leg
Break back below the 0.8174 london low would fully unwind the Waller move
Asian range broken higher; higher low at 0.8200 holding under a flat 0.8211 cap.
Waller's tightening warning at 09:15 UTC drove the London leg up from 0.8174 through the Asian range high near 0.8201. The 0.8200 pullback low then held, with the ema20 at 0.82007 beside it. Price has stalled twice at the 0.8211 session high, and RSI(14) has eased to 57 from 69 into US CPI.
Support: 0.82005, 0.81971, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.82111, 0.82267
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~75 min, core f/c 0.2% m/m), with ADP 4-week average 15 min earlier, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.8211 session high opens the path to the 0.8227 prior high
Failure to hold the 0.8200 pullback low exposes the ema50 at 0.8197
Break back below the 0.8174 london low would erase the London leg and the Waller breakout
London low sweep then range breakout, higher low held on retest.
No narrative produced.
Support: 0.82005, 0.81968, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.82111, 0.82267
11:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pressing the session high · RSI 63 · price 0.82084
London sweep below the Asian low, then a reversal and a higher low above the Asian high.
London open swept below the Asian low to the 0.8174 london low. Fed's Waller speech at 09:00 UTC then drove a 37-pip reversal through the 0.8201 Asian high to a 0.82108 session high. The pullback set a higher low at 0.82005, a shallow fib retracement that retested the Asian top, and price now sits back under the session high with RSI 62.9, above ema20 (0.81993) and ema50 (0.81963), and ATR up to 5.6 pips.
Support: 0.82005, 0.81963, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.82108, 0.82267
What it said to watch
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) and ADP at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.82108 session high opens the path to the 0.82267 monday high
Close below the 0.82005 higher low breaks the HL chain and exposes ema50 at 0.81963; a return to the 0.8174 london low would fully unwind the move
London false break below Asian range, then higher high; shallow pullback holding.
London dipped below the Asian range to the 0.8174 london low before reversing; the 09:00 UTC surge around Waller's speech carried price to a 0.8211 session high, right at the 0.8205–0.8210 cap flagged in the CHF digest. The pullback held the 0.8201 pullback low above the 23.6% fib, with RSI(14) cooling from 69 to 61 and price above the ema20 at 0.8198.
Support: 0.82006, 0.81983, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.82108, 0.82268
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8211 session high opens Monday's 0.8227 prior high
Failure to hold the 0.8201 pullback low and ema20 at 0.8198 puts the London rally into retracement toward the 38.2% fib
Loss of 0.8174 london low negates the false-break read
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~2h), with ADP at 13:15, could materially shift this read; ATR at 5.7 pips likely to expand
11:16 UTC
Rebound off London low, momentum cooling · RSI 57 · price 0.82021
Asian range swept lower, then broken higher; retesting range top.
London opened with a false break below the 0.8188–0.8201 Asian range to a 0.8174 session low, then reversed hard from 09:00 UTC, around Waller's scheduled remarks, to a 0.8211 session high. Price is now retesting the Asian high near 0.8201 with RSI(14) cooled from 69 to 57, ATR(14) up from 3.8 to 5.7 pips, and price holding above the ema20 at 0.8197.
Support: 0.82014, 0.81974, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.82108, 0.82268
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8201 Asian high puts price back inside the range and exposes the ema20 at 0.8197
Close above the 0.8211 session high opens the path to the 0.8227 Monday high
Failure at the ema20 brings the 0.8174 session low back into view
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (~2h15m away; core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
11:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing under session high · RSI 60 · price 0.82029
London swept below the Asian range, reversed and broke above its high; now retesting it.
London opened with a sweep below the Asian range to a 0.8174 london low. The bar that coincided with Waller's scheduled remarks then drove a range break through the 0.8200 asian high. The rally stalled at a 0.8211 session high, inside the 0.8205–0.8210 cap. The pullback is holding the asian high retest with RSI(14) cooled to 60 from 69, ATR expanded to 5.8 pips, and the ema20 at 0.8197 lines up with the 38.2% fib of the London rally.
Support: 0.8200, 0.81969, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.82108, 0.82268
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (ADP 4-week average at 13:15) could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 0.8200 asian high returns price to the Asian range and puts the ema20 / 38.2% fib at 0.8197 in focus
M15 close above the 0.8211 session high opens the path to the 0.8227 prior high
Asian range broken higher, retesting the Asian high.
London open swept the Asian low to the london low at 0.8174. Waller's 09:00 UTC remarks then drove a breakout through the 0.8201 Asian high to a session high of 0.8211, at the 0.8205–0.8210 cap. The latest bar is retesting the asian high as RSI(14) eases from 69 to 58.
Support: 0.8201, 0.8196, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.8211, 0.8227
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 0.8201 asian high returns price to the Asian range and exposes the ema20 at 0.8196, near the 38.2% fib
Close above the 0.8211 session high clears the cap and opens the 0.8227 prior high
Failure to hold the ema20 leaves the 0.8174 london low as the next swing reference
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~2h45m), with ADP at 13:15, could materially shift this read
10:31 UTC
Uptrend off the London low, pausing below the session high · RSI 67 · price 0.82092
Asian low swept, then breakout above the Asian high; tight base at 0.8204–0.8211.
Early London swept below the Asian range to 0.8174 before Waller's 09:00 UTC remarks drove a ~30-pip breakout through the Asian high at 0.8201. Price is now basing between the 0.8204 pullback low and the 0.8211 session high, right into the 0.8205–0.8210 cap. EMA20 has just crossed above EMA50, RSI(14) sits at 67 and ATR has expanded to 5.7 pips.
Support: 0.82043, 0.82014, 0.81955
Resistance: 0.82108, 0.82268
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read; core MoM forecast is 0.2%
An M15 close above the 0.8211 session high opens the path to the Monday high at 0.8227
A slip back below the Asian high at 0.8201 turns the breakout into a false break, exposing ema20 at 0.81955 and the fib 50% near 0.8192
A break of the 0.8204 pullback low would end the tight base under the session high
10:16 UTC
Intraday up-leg, extended from London low · RSI 66 · price 0.82084
Asian range broken higher after a false break below.
London pushed below the Asian range to a session low at 0.8174 and failed. The 09:00 UTC bar during Waller's speech then broke the asian high at 0.8201, and the move ran to a session high at 0.8211; the 10:00 UTC dip held above 0.8201. RSI(14) sits at 65.8, ATR has expanded to 5.9 pips from 3.4, and price holds above both EMAs, with the ema20 near 0.8194 now turning up, ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.8201, 0.8194, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.8211, 0.8227
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the asian high at 0.8201 would undercut the breakout read
Clearance of the session high at 0.8211 opens Monday's high at 0.8227
Loss of the ema20 near 0.8194 puts the session low at 0.8174 back in focus, near the 61.8% fib of the London up-leg
ADP at 13:15 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
London false break below Asian low, then breakout above Asian high.
London opened with a false break of the Asian range low to 0.8174, then reversed sharply in the bar of Fed's Waller speech. Price cleared the Asian high at 0.8201 and printed a session high at 0.8211, inside the 0.8205–0.8210 cap. RSI(14) sits at 67.1 and ATR has expanded to 6.1 pips, with price holding above the ema20 at 0.8193.
Support: 0.8201, 0.81927, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.82108, 0.82268
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8201 asian high turns the breakout into a failed one
Break above the 0.8211 session high opens the path to Monday's 0.8227 prior high
Loss of the ema20 near 0.8193 would unwind most of the London rally
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
London-open sweep of lows, then breakout above Asian range.
London open swept below the Asian range to a 0.8174 London low. The London rally that followed broke through the 0.8201 Asian high at 09:00 UTC, as Fed's Waller spoke. Price is now pressing the 0.8210 session high, with RSI(14) at 69.3 and ATR(14) expanding to 6.3 pips from 3.4.
Support: 0.8201, 0.81926, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.8210, 0.82268
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8201 asian high returns price to the overnight range
A break and hold above the 0.8210 session high exposes Monday's 0.8227 prior high
Loss of the ema50 near 0.8193 would retrace most of the London rally toward the london low
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~3h45m), with ADP at 13:15, could materially shift this read
09:31 UTC
Impulsive bounce, above both EMAs · RSI 63 · price 0.82024
London low 0.8174 rejected; Waller spike broke above the Asian range.
Early London broke below the 0.8188–0.8201 Asian range to a 0.8174 London low. Waller's 09:00 UTC remarks then drove a 22-pip spike to a 0.8205 session high, clearing the Asian high, and the first pullback low at 0.8196 held. Price sits above both EMAs, RSI(14) is 63.2 and ATR(14) has expanded to 6 pips from about 3.5.
Support: 0.8201, 0.81955, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.82047, 0.82268
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8196 pullback low would turn the Asian high break into a false break
Acceptance above the 0.8205 session high opens the path toward the 0.8227 Monday high
Failure to hold above the Asian high at 0.8201 leaves the London low at 0.8174 as the next reference
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (ADP 13:15) could materially shift this read
09:16 UTC
Intraday rebound, momentum building · RSI 65 · price 0.82001
London low reclaimed; spike back to Asian high.
London first broke below the Asian range to a 0.8174 london low, then reversed. The 09:00 UTC bar, as Waller spoke, retook the Asian high at 0.8201 and tagged a 0.8205 session high, the bottom of the 0.8205-0.8210 cap. Price sits above the ema20 and ema50, RSI(14) has lifted to 64.5 from the low 30s, and ATR(14) has widened to 5.9 pips from about 3.5.
Support: 0.82014, 0.81878, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.82047, 0.82268
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the asian high at 0.8201 turns the spike into a false break back inside the Asian range
Close above the 0.8205 session high and the 0.8210 cap opens a path to Monday's prior high at 0.8227
Loss of the ema20 near 0.8188 puts the london low at 0.8174 back in play
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (headline m/m f/c 0.3%, core m/m 0.2%) could materially shift this read
09:01 UTC
Down from Monday's high, bouncing into Waller · RSI 41 · price 0.81938
London broke below the Asian range; the forming bar is back inside it.
London open broke the Asian low at 0.8191 and printed a London low at 0.8174. ATR(14) expanded to 4.7 pips and RSI(14) recovered from a 31.8 trough to 41. The forming bar into the Waller speech has spiked back above the Asian low and is challenging the ema50 near 0.8191, after the last close sat below both EMAs.
Support: 0.8191, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.8201, 0.8227
What it said to watch
Close back below the 0.8191 Asian low turns the reclaim into a failed bounce, with the 0.8174 London low next
M15 close above the 0.8201 Asian high opens the path toward the 0.8227 Monday high
Waller speech now and US CPI at 13:30 UTC (f/c 0.3% m/m, core 0.2%) could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower at London open; lower highs, small higher low at 0.8178.
London open broke the 0.8188–0.8201 Asian range lower, dipping to a 0.8174 session low as oil-driven USD softness carried over from Monday. The rebound stalled at the ema20 and the falling trendline near 0.8187, and a 0.8178 higher low has price coiling below both EMAs. RSI(14) is at 37 and ATR is 4.6 pips and rising.
Support: 0.81777, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.81867, 0.81914, 0.82014
What it said to watch
Waller speaks at 09:00 UTC, within the next bar, and could break the 0.8178–0.8187 coil either way
M15 close above the ema20 and falling trendline at 0.8187 opens the ema50 at 0.8191, then the asia high at 0.8201
Failure to hold the 0.8178 higher low and a break of the 0.8174 session low extends the lower-low sequence
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC is the session's main catalyst and could reset this structure
08:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, below both EMAs · RSI 35 · price 0.81795
Asian range broken lower in London, lower high at 0.8187.
USDCHF slipped out of the 0.8191–0.8201 Asian range (asian low to asian high) into London and hit a london low at 0.8174, in line with the heavier USD on oil and Iran-deal relief. The rebound stalled at 0.8187, right at the ema20, leaving a lower high. RSI(14) is 35.4 and ATR has expanded from 3.4 to 4.7 pips as both EMAs turn lower.
Support: 0.8174
Resistance: 0.81874, 0.81908, 0.82014
What it said to watch
Fed Waller speaks at 09:00 UTC, within the next two bars, and could jolt the session range
An M15 close above 0.8187 and the ema20 breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the asian low at 0.8191 back in play
Failure to hold the 0.8174 london low extends the London range break
US CPI at 13:30 UTC is the session's main event and could materially shift this read
08:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, early London bounce · RSI 37 · price 0.81815
Lower highs from Monday's 0.8227 NY high; Asian range broken lower.
London open broke below the 0.8188–0.8201 Asian range and set a London low at 0.8174, matching Monday's 0.8174 low. That extends the lower-high sequence from Monday's 0.8227 NY high as a soft USD tone carries into CPI. The bounce stalled at 0.8187, just under the ema20 at 0.8188 and the broken Asian low; RSI(14) is 37 after a 32 trough, and ATR(14) has widened to 4.6 pips.
Support: 0.8174
Resistance: 0.81885, 0.81923, 0.82014
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.8188 Asian low and ema20 would negate the range break
Failure to hold the 0.8174 London low confirms a fresh lower low
The ema50 at 0.8192 sits with the 38.2% fib of the 0.8227–0.8174 decline at 0.8194; this is the next cap on any bounce
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday peak; Asian range broken lower.
Pre-London selling broke the Asian range low at 0.8188. It extended the Monday selloff from 0.8227 to 0.8174, matching the Monday low, as USD stayed soft on oil and Iran-deal relief into CPI. London open is bouncing toward the 0.8185 bounce high, still below a falling EMA20 (0.8189) and EMA50 (0.8193), with RSI(14) at 39 off a 32 trough and ATR at 4.4 pips, up from 3.4.
Support: 0.8174
Resistance: 0.8185, 0.8188, 0.8201
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.8188 asian low, where the EMA20 also sits, returns price to the Asian range toward the 0.8201 asian high
Failure to hold the 0.8174 monday low extends the lower-low sequence
Rejection at the 0.8185 bounce high keeps the lower-high structure intact
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC, within the next hour, could shift this read
US CPI at 13:30 UTC is the main event risk for the session
Asian range broken lower, price basing at the prior low.
USD/CHF broke below the 0.8191–0.8201 Asian range in early European trade ahead of the London open. The drop from the Asian high tested Monday's 0.8174 prior low, where buyers stepped in on two bars. Price sits below the ema20 (0.81895) and ema50 with RSI(14) at 33.8 and ATR(14) up to 4.4 pips, against a softer-USD backdrop as yields and oil ease ahead of CPI.
Support: 0.8174, 0.8150
Resistance: 0.81895, 0.8191, 0.8201
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8174 prior low extends the lower-low sequence and opens the 0.8150 support zone
Reclaim of the ema20 and the 0.8191 Asian low would turn the range break into a false break
An M15 close back above the 0.8201 Asian high invalidates the downtrend read
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC could shift this read; US CPI at 13:30 UTC is the session's main event risk
USDCHF broke below the 0.8191–0.8201 Asian range from 06:00 UTC and printed lower highs down to 0.8174, matching the prior low from yesterday's European session. A long lower wick formed there into London open. Price is below both EMAs and RSI(14) is 31.8, soft but not oversold, as USD drifts ahead of Waller and CPI.
Support: 0.8174, 0.8170
Resistance: 0.81904, 0.8191, 0.82014
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8174 prior low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8170 round number
Recovery above ema20 at 0.8190 and the 0.8191 asian low puts price back inside the Asian range
Close above the 0.8201 asian high breaks the lower-highs line and voids the selloff read
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC (~90 min) could shift this read; US CPI at 13:30 UTC is the larger risk later in the day
ATR(14) at 4 pips: the 0.8174 test happened on an expanding range bar
07:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 33 · price 0.81806
London open broke below the Asian range low; lower-high, lower-low chain intact.
The London open pushed USDCHF below the 0.8188 Asian low, extending a lower-highs sequence from the 0.8201 Asian high to a 0.8180 session low. Price sits below the ema20 (0.81916) and ema50, with RSI(14) at 33. The drift fits the softer dollar on lower oil and yields ahead of CPI, and yesterday's 0.8174 prior low is next below.
Support: 0.8180, 0.81742
Resistance: 0.8188, 0.81916, 0.82014
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8188 Asian low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold 0.8180 session low exposes the 0.8174 prior low
Reclaim of ema20 at 0.81916 would break the lower-highs sequence
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 37 · price 0.81825
Asian range broken lower into London open; Monday's NY low cleared.
Price slipped out of the 0.8191–0.8201 Asian range (Asian low to Asian high) into London open and has cleared Monday's NY low at 0.8188, printing 0.8182. That extends the fade from Monday's 0.8227 peak as USD softness on lower yields persists. Price sits below ema20 (0.8193) and ema50 (0.8195) on a lower-highs line from Asia, with RSI(14) at 36.6 and ATR at a compressed 3.8 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.8180, 0.81742
Resistance: 0.81875, 0.81908, 0.82014
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the Asian low at 0.8191 turns the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8180 round number exposes Monday's prior low at 0.8174
Break of the lower-highs line near 0.8198 would negate the intraday downtrend read
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC (~2h) and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:46 UTC
Drifting lower, below both EMAs · RSI 40 · price 0.81861
Break below Asian range, lower highs since 0.8201.
Ahead of the London open, USD/CHF has closed below the 0.8191–0.8201 Asian range and Monday's 0.81875 evening low, printing a session low at 0.8185 with RSI(14) at 40.2 and ATR at 3.8 pips. Lower highs off the 0.8201 Asian high cap price under a flattening ema20 at 0.81936 as the dollar idles into US CPI.
Support: 0.8185, 0.81742
Resistance: 0.8191, 0.81936, 0.82014
What it said to watch
A recovery back above the 0.8191 asian low and the ema20 at 0.81936 would turn the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8185 session low exposes Monday's 0.8174 swing low
A close above the lower highs line and the 0.8201 asian high voids the drift lower
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Soft, drifting below both EMAs · RSI 45 · price 0.81897
Asian range low giving way, lower highs since Asia.
Monday's NY rally to the 0.8227 ny high fully unwound into the close as the dollar slipped on Iran de-escalation and lower yields, leaving a late-NY low at 0.81875. Asia printed a lower high under the 0.8201 asian high, and the last hour before London slipped below the 0.8191 range floor to 0.81885. Price sits under a gently falling ema20/ema50 at 0.8194/0.8196 and the descending trendline, RSI(14) 44.8, ATR 3.8 pips.
Support: 0.81875, 0.81742
Resistance: 0.81943, 0.82014, 0.82268
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.81875 ny low extends the Asian range break toward the monday low at 0.8174
M15 close back above the ema20 at 0.8194 and the descending trendline neutralises the break
Break of the 0.8201 asian high reopens the 0.8227 ny high
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:16 UTC
Range, slipping lower · RSI 42 · price 0.81905
Late-Asia break below Asian range, lower highs.
Pre-London, the 06:00 UTC bar dipped through the 0.8191–0.8201 Asian range to 0.81885 after a run of lower highs below the asia high. Price is pressing the 0.81875 NY low, under both the ema20 (0.81946) and ema50, with RSI(14) at 41.9. It sits between the 61.8% and 78.6% fib retracement of Monday's 0.8174–0.8227 NY rally, with USD steady into today's CPI.
Support: 0.81875, 0.81855, 0.81742
Resistance: 0.81908, 0.81946, 0.82014
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8191 asia low puts price back inside the Asian range and negates the break
Failure to hold the 0.81875 NY low and the 78.6% fib at 0.81855 exposes the 0.8174 London low
Lower highs line from 0.8201: a break above it and the ema20 at 0.81946 neutralises the downside drift
Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR(14) at 3.9 pips is compressed ahead of it
06:02 UTC
Flat after failed NY rally, compressing · RSI 52 · price 0.81959
Tight Asian range below NY session high.
The NY session rally to the 0.8227 NY high was rejected and fully faded to a 0.8188 swing low, in step with DXY slipping under 102.00 on US-Iran deal hopes and lower oil. Asia has since held a 0.8191–0.8201 range, with the Asian high near the 38.2% of the NY fade. Price sits just above flat EMA20 and EMA50, RSI(14) is neutral at 51.6 and ATR(14) has compressed to 3.5 pips ahead of London.
Support: 0.8191, 0.81875
Resistance: 0.8201, 0.82268
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8201 Asian high and 38.2% fib reopens the 0.8227 NY high
Failure to hold the 0.8191 Asian low exposes the 0.8188 swing low
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC could break the Asian range early in London
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC is the main catalyst for a range break
05:46 UTC
Sideways, contained after NY reversal · RSI 52 · price 0.81975
Tight Asian range 0.8191–0.8201 below Monday's NY high.
Late Asia: USDCHF sits inside a 10-pip Asian range (asian low 0.8191, asian high 0.8201). Monday's NY rally to the 0.8227 prior high faded into the 19:30 UTC ny low at 0.8188 as US yields eased after the 3-year auction. Price is holding near the 61.8% retrace of the prior-day range, with RSI(14) neutral at 52 and ATR(14) about 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.8191, 0.8188, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.8201, 0.8227
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8201 asian high breaks the range and puts the 0.8227 prior high back in view
Failure at the 0.8191 asian low and the 0.8188 ny low exposes the 0.8174 prior low
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC, around London open, could set the session range
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC is the main risk and could materially shift this read
05:31 UTC
Sideways after full NY reversal, drifting lower · RSI 45 · price 0.8192
Lower highs from Asian high onto flat 0.8191 base.
Monday's NY spike to the 0.8227 ny high was rejected and fully unwound, leaving the pair back near the 0.8188 swing low as softer yields and oil weighed on USD. Late Asia is compressing under a lower-highs trendline from the 0.8201 Asian high onto a flat base at the 0.8191 Asian low. RSI(14) sits in the mid-40s and ATR is about 3 pips, with price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.8191, 0.8188, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.8201, 0.8205, 0.8227
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.8191 Asian low exposes the 0.8188 swing low, then the 0.8174 London low
A close above the lower-highs trendline and the 0.8201 Asian high brings the 0.8205 UOB cap back into play
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:16 UTC
Rangebound after NY rally faded · RSI 49 · price 0.81953
Tight Asian range near the 61.8% retracement of the NY rally.
Monday's NY rally from the 0.8174 London low to the 0.8227 NY high has been unwound back to its 61.8% retracement near 0.8194 as USD softened on Iran-peace and oil relief. Late Asia is holding a tight 0.8191–0.8201 range, with RSI(14) flat near 49 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 0.81908, 0.81875, 0.81742
Resistance: 0.82014, 0.82268
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.8201 Asian high reopens the path toward the 0.8227 NY high
Failure to hold the 0.8191 Asian low exposes the 0.8188 swing low and then the 0.8174 London low
Loss of the 61.8% fib near 0.8194 would mean the NY rally has been fully retraced
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could break the range
05:02 UTC
Short-term down after failed rally, ranging in Asia · RSI 42 · price 0.81919
NY false break above 0.8205 unwound; Asian range 0.8191–0.8201 with lower highs.
Monday's NY rally to the 0.8227 NY high pierced the 0.8205 UOB cap, then fully unwound into a late-NY drop to the 0.8188 NY low as USD softened on oil relief and easing yields. Asia has held a 0.8191–0.8201 range, with lower highs printing since 02:30 UTC. Late in the Asia session, price is pressing the Asian low, below the 61.8% rally retrace and both EMAs.
Support: 0.8191, 0.8188, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.8201, 0.8205, 0.8227
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8191 Asian low and 0.8188 NY low breaks the Asian range lower, with the 0.8174 day low as the next reference
Break of the Asian lower-high trendline and a close above the 0.8201 Asian high puts the 0.8205 UOB cap back in play
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Sideways after failed NY extension · RSI 52 · price 0.8194
Tight Asian range 0.8191–0.8201 below the NY high.
Rejection at the 0.8227 NY high unwound most of the NY rally from 0.8185 by late session, as US-Iran optimism and lower yields weighed on USD; the 19:30 UTC drop set the NY low at 0.81875. Asia is holding a 10-pip range between the 0.8191 Asian low and the 0.8201 Asian high, with RSI(14) neutral near 52 and price just under both EMAs.
Support: 0.8191, 0.81875, 0.81742
Resistance: 0.82014, 0.82268
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8188 NY low breaks the range floor and exposes the 0.8174 London low
Reclaim of the 0.8201 Asian high reopens the 0.8227 NY high
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC (~4h) could break the Asian range
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:31 UTC
Sideways after NY sell-off, momentum flat · RSI 53 · price 0.81962
Tight Asian range 0.8191–0.8201 below 0.8200 psych, lower high vs NY peak.
The pair reversed hard from the 0.8227 NY high and dropped to the 0.8188 post-NY low after London close. The NY high fade came as Iran-deal optimism and lower US yields weighed on USD. Asia has compressed in a 10-pip band between the 0.8191 Asian low and the 0.8201 Asian high, just under 0.8200 psych, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and ATR(14) about 3.5 pips.
Support: 0.81908, 0.81875, 0.81742
Resistance: 0.82014, 0.82268
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8201 Asian high and 0.8200 psych reopens the 0.8227 NY high
Failure to hold the 0.8191 Asian low exposes the 0.8188 post-NY low, then the 0.8174 London low
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC could break the Asian range during London hours
US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:16 UTC
Sideways after the late-NY fade · RSI 42 · price 0.81926
Asia range 0.8188–0.8201, lower highs compressing toward the floor.
The NY spike to 0.8227 fully faded. A late-NY drop to 0.8188 came as softer yields and Iran-deal headlines weighed on USD. Late Asia has held a tight 0.8188–0.8201 range, with the asian high capped just under the 38.2% retrace of that drop and the asia lows near 0.8191 holding twice. Price is pinned at the lower end, RSI(14) is near 42 and ATR is about 3.5 pips, so no setup is in play.
Support: 0.81912, 0.8188
Resistance: 0.82008, 0.8205
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the asian low at 0.8188 breaks the Asia range lower and extends the late-NY drop
A close above the asian high at 0.8201 and the 38.2% fib exposes the ny shelf at 0.8205, where the pair held late NY before the drop
Failure of the asia lows at 0.8191 on a third test signals range-floor erosion into London open
Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:02 UTC
Sideways after a sharp late-NY selloff · RSI 45 · price 0.81944
Range 0.8191–0.8201 in late Asia, below 38.2% of the NY drop.
Monday's NY rally peaked at 0.8227 (ny high), then reversed hard in late NY to the 0.81875 drop low as USD softened on US-Iran optimism and lower yields. Late in the Asia session the pair is ranging between the 0.8191 asian low and the 0.8201 asian high, which held as a rejection at the 38.2% fib of the NY drop. RSI(14) is neutral near 45 and ATR is about 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.8191, 0.81875, 0.81742
Resistance: 0.8201, 0.8205, 0.82268
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8191 asian low exposes the 0.81875 drop low, then the 0.8174 london low
M15 close above the 0.8201 asian high reopens the 0.8205 uob cap, the ceiling the pair failed back below in late NY
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC (~5h) could break the Asian range
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (~9.5h) is the session's main volatility risk
03:46 UTC
Down from Monday high, ranging in Asia · RSI 43 · price 0.81917
Lower highs below 0.8227; Asian range 0.8191–0.8201, price at range low.
Monday's NY spike to the 0.8227 Monday high failed. The 0.8205 breakdown shelf gave way and price fell to the 0.81875 NY low as USD softened on Iran-deal optimism and lower yields. Late in the Asia session, price is ranging 0.8191–0.8201 under the lower highs line, with a second rejection at the Asian high and price now pressing the Asian low.
Support: 0.8191, 0.81875, 0.81742
Resistance: 0.8201, 0.8205, 0.82268
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.8191 asian low exposes the 0.81875 ny low; a break there opens the 0.8174 london low
Close back above the 0.8201 asian high, near the 38.2% of the NY drop, would challenge the lower highs read toward 0.8205 breakdown
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC (~5h) and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Range after full fade of NY spike · RSI 44 · price 0.81942
Tight Asian range 0.8188–0.8201, price in lower half.
Monday's NY spike to the 0.8227 ny high faded through the close as Iran-deal optimism and lower yields weighed on USD. Late Asia sits at the 61.8% retracement of the 0.8174–0.8227 NY rally fib (0.8194), inside a 0.8188–0.8201 Asian range, with closes drifting lower since the second rejection at the asian high.
Support: 0.8188, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.8201, 0.8227
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8188 asian low exposes the 0.8174 london low
M15 close back above the 0.8201 asian high reopens the 0.8227 ny high
Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Neutral after failed NY spike, compressing · RSI 50 · price 0.81959
Tight Asian range below the 0.8206 breakdown shelf, lower high vs 0.8227.
The NY spike to the 0.8227 Monday high was rejected back through 0.8205, and the late-NY breakdown from 0.8206 reached a 0.8188 NY low as the USD softened on US-Iran optimism and lower yields. Late in the Asia session, price is pinned in a 10-pip range between the 0.8191 Asian low and 0.8201 Asian high, around the 61.8% fib of the London low-to-Monday high leg, with RSI(14) flat at 50 and ATR(14) near 4 pips.
Support: 0.81908, 0.81875, 0.81742
Resistance: 0.82014, 0.8206, 0.82268
What it said to watch
A London open break of the 0.8201 Asian high puts the 0.8206 breakdown shelf and the lower highs line in play
Failure to hold the 0.8191 Asian low reopens the 0.8188 NY low and the old 0.8185 range top, with the 0.8174 London low below
Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a soft core print is the main downside risk for USD
A move back above the 0.8227 Monday high would negate the rejection read
03:03 UTC
Sideways after NY rally faded · RSI 53 · price 0.81964
Tight Asian range near 61.8% retrace of NY rally.
Monday's NY rally from the 0.8174 London low to the 0.8227 NY high unwound late in the session, breaking the 0.8206 prior shelf and dropping to a 0.81875 swing low as softer oil and yields weighed on USD. Asia is mid-session in a 13-pip 0.8191–0.8201 range, with price flat on the EMA20 around the 61.8% retrace of the NY rally and RSI(14) neutral at 53.
Support: 0.81908, 0.81875, 0.81742
Resistance: 0.82014, 0.8206, 0.82268
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8201 asian high brings the 0.8206 prior shelf back into play, with the 0.8227 ny high above
Loss of the 0.8191 asian low exposes the 0.81875 swing low and then the 0.8174 london low
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:46 UTC
Range after NY reversal, Asia grinding higher · RSI 59 · price 0.81999
Higher lows inside Asian range, pressing range top.
The NY rally to the 0.8227 high fully unwound in the 19:30 UTC drop to the 0.8188 rollover low as Iran-deal hopes and lower oil softened USD. Mid-Asia, the Asia higher-low trendline (0.8188, then the 0.8191 Asian low) has price testing the 0.8201 Asian high a third time, close to the 38.2% fib of the NY drop. Price is hugging EMA50, RSI(14) is 59 and ATR(14) is about 4 pips, so the range remains intact.
Support: 0.8191, 0.8188, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.8201, 0.8206, 0.8227
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8201 Asian high and the 0.8206 NY shelf would break the Asian range to the upside, with the 0.8227 NY high the next reference.
Loss of the 0.8191 Asian low and the 0.8188 rollover low would break the Asia higher-low trendline, putting the 0.8174 prior low back in view.
A rejection at the 38.2% fib near 0.8202 keeps the post-NY range read intact.
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
02:31 UTC
Two-way, NY rally fully faded toward base · RSI 53 · price 0.8196
Tight Asian range 0.8189–0.8201 after late-NY reversal.
The NY rally from the 0.8174 london low topped at the 0.8227 ny high and was sold back to 0.8188 late in NY as oil and US yields slid on Iran-deal headlines. Asia is holding a tight range between the 0.8188 asian low and the 0.8201 asian high, sitting on the 61.8% fib of that leg, with RSI(14) near 53 and ATR around 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.81943, 0.8188, 0.81742
Resistance: 0.82008, 0.8205, 0.82268
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8201 asian high reopens the 0.8205 uob cap and the 0.8227 ny high
Failure to hold the 0.8188 asian low and the 61.8% fib exposes the 0.8174 london low
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~11h) could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Range after failed NY spike, higher lows in Asia · RSI 58 · price 0.81983
Asian range 0.8191–0.8201 inside Monday's 0.8174–0.8227 span.
Monday's NY spike to the 0.8227 monday high was rejected and fully unwound to the 0.8188 ny pm low as softer oil on Iran-deal headlines and lower yields weighed on USD. Late Asia is printing higher lows off the 0.8191 asian low, and price is pressing the 0.8201 asian high, which lines up with the 61.8% retrace of the NY rally fib. Price is sitting just above a flat EMA50.
Support: 0.81908, 0.81875, 0.81742
Resistance: 0.82008, 0.8205, 0.82268
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8201 asian high opens the 0.8205 uob cap from the digest
Failure to hold the 0.8191 asian low breaks the higher lows and exposes the 0.8188 ny pm low, then the 0.8174 london low
Waller at 09:00 UTC (~6.75h) could shift Fed-hike pricing before London is established
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (~11h) is the main catalyst for a break of Monday's range
02:03 UTC
Short-term down after NY rejection, basing in Asia · RSI 56 · price 0.81963
NY spike fully faded; tight Asian range with a higher low.
Monday's NY rally to the 0.8227 ny high was unwound by a sharp late-NY drop to the 0.8187 swing low, as softer oil and yields capped USD. Price now rotates inside a 0.8191–0.8201 Asian range at the 23.6% fib of that decline, with the asian low a modest higher low above the swing low.
Support: 0.81909, 0.81874, 0.81742
Resistance: 0.82007, 0.8206, 0.82267
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8201 asian high brings the 0.8206 ny shelf and 38.2% fib into play
A move through the 0.8191 asian low and 0.8187 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 0.8174 london low
Only a reclaim of the 0.8227 ny high would invalidate the NY rejection read
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Range after full reversal of NY rally · RSI 56 · price 0.81958
Early Asia range 0.8191–0.8201 below NY high.
The NY rally from 0.8185 to the 0.8227 prior high fully unwound into the 0.8187 ny low as Iran-deal hopes cut oil and US yields. After a small gap at the open, early Asia is boxed between a 0.8191 swing low and a 0.8201 asia high, sitting just under the fib 38.2 of that decline. The asia high produced a rejection at 00:30 UTC, and the London low at 0.8174 is the next reference below.
Support: 0.81909, 0.81874, 0.81742
Resistance: 0.82007, 0.82024, 0.82267
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8201 asia high and the 0.8202 fib 38.2 reopens the 0.8227 prior high
Failure to hold the 0.8191 swing low exposes the 0.8187 ny low, then the 0.8174 london low
Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC and US October CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend from NY high, Asia range forming · RSI 42 · price 0.81911
Lower highs since 0.8227; price at the lower half of the 0.8186–0.8201 Asian range.
The NY rally to 0.8227 failed above the 0.8205 cap. Price slid to the 0.8187 NY low as Iran-deal headlines softened USD, and has made lower highs since. Early Asia was rejected at the 0.8201 Asia high, and the pair is back near 0.8191 under falling trendline resistance, with RSI(14) at 42 and ATR about 4 pips.
Support: 0.81874, 0.81742
Resistance: 0.82007, 0.82267
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8187 NY low exposes the 0.8174 London low
Close above the 0.8201 Asia high and the falling trendline negates the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.8227 NY high back in focus
Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC, ahead of US CPI at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend from NY high, Asia ranging · RSI 48 · price 0.81934
Lower highs since 0.8227, Asian range 0.8186–0.8201.
The late-NY drop from the 0.8227 NY high reached 0.8187 as the softer dollar weighed after Iran de-escalation pulled oil and yields lower. Early Asia has held a range between the 0.8186 Asian low and the 0.8201 Asian high, and the latest bar rejected that high just below the 38.2% fib. Lower highs remain intact and RSI(14) sits near 48.
Support: 0.81863, 0.81742
Resistance: 0.82007, 0.8205, 0.82267
What it said to watch
Break below the 0.8186 Asian low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 0.8174 Monday low
Close above the 0.8201 Asian high and the 38.2% fib breaks the lower-highs trendline; the 0.8205 UOB cap sits just above
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US October CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:02 UTC
Sideways, mild upward drift in Asia · RSI 53 · price 0.81971
Higher lows off 0.8186, capped at 0.8200-01.
Monday's NY session spike to the 0.8227 ny high faded as oil and US yields slid, dragging the pair back toward 0.8187. The Asia session has stepped up from the 0.8186 rollover low in higher lows along a rising trendline, but 0.8200-01 (asia high, near the 50% fib) has rejected three bars, price pinned on EMA50 with RSI(14) ~53.
Support: 0.8194, 0.8186, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.8201, 0.8212, 0.8227
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8201 asia high breaks the Asian cap and opens 0.8212 mon asia hi
Loss of the 61.8% fib at 0.8194 and the rising trendline undercuts the higher-low chain
Break of the 0.8186 rollover low exposes the 0.8174 london low
Fed's Waller 09:00 UTC and US CPI 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-selloff range 0.8186–0.8200 in early Asia, capped below 38.2% retrace.
The NY rally to the 0.8227 Monday high faded, and the evening slide on Iran de-escalation, with softer oil and yields weighing on USD, ran to the 0.8187 evening low. Early Asia has built a tight range, with the asia high at 0.8200 stalling just under the 38.2% retrace and below the 0.8205 UOB cap. RSI(14) is neutral near 55 and ATR(14) is only ~3.4 pips.
Support: 0.81865, 0.81742
Resistance: 0.82004, 0.8205, 0.82267
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8200 asia high and the 0.8205 uob cap reopens the 50% retrace near 0.8207 and then the 0.8227 monday high
Failure to hold the 0.8186 evening low exposes the 0.8174 monday low
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:16 UTC
Short-term recovery within Monday's 0.8174–0.8227 range · RSI 63 · price 0.82001
Higher lows off the 0.8186 rollover low; below the 0.8206 breakdown shelf.
Early Tuesday Asia has lifted the pair to 0.8200 off the 0.8186 rollover low on a chain of higher lows. Price is pressing the 38.2% retrace of the NY drop from the 0.8227 day high. Monday's NY push through the 0.8212 Asian high was a false break. The late-NY slide back under the 0.8205–0.8206 shelf came as falling oil and yields weighed on USD.
Support: 0.81863, 0.81742
Resistance: 0.82055, 0.82124, 0.82267
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8206 shelf opens a retest of the 0.8212 Asian high, with the 50% retrace at 0.8207
Loss of the rising trendline and the 0.8186 rollover low puts the 0.8174 London low back in play
Rejection at the shelf would leave the pair inside the post-NY 0.8186–0.8206 band
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
00:02 UTC
Pullback from NY high, now flat · RSI 53 · price 0.81955
Tight early-Asia range 0.8186–0.8196 after late-NY drop.
USD/CHF gave back the NY rally to the 0.8227 NY high late in NY, sliding to a 0.8187 drop low as USD softened on US-Iran ceasefire hopes and lower yields. Early Asia is compressing between that low and the 0.8196 range top, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and ATR down to about 3 pips.
Support: 0.81874, 0.81742
Resistance: 0.81961, 0.8206, 0.82267
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8196 range top brings the 0.8206 NY shelf, the 38.2% fib of the NY high fib drop, into play
Failure to hold the 0.8187 drop low exposes the 0.8174 London low
A recovery through the 0.8206 NY shelf would put the 0.8227 NY high back in view
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read