22:02 UTC
Corrective pullback within Aug–Oct uptrend, rebounding · RSI 53 · price 0.82527
Lower highs since Oct 14 peak, Nov low holding near 61.8% of the rally.
The Aug–Oct rally from 0.7950 to the 0.8395 oct high has turned into a month-long correction of lower highs (0.8395, then 0.8313). The Nov 4 low at 0.8127 held near the 61.8% retracement of that rally. Tuesday's hot US CPI lifted the pair back above both EMAs to close at 0.8253, with the ema20 at 0.8232 and a still-rising ema50 at 0.8220 just beneath. RSI at 52.5 is back to neutral and ATR has expanded to 58.5 pips.
Support: 0.82321, 0.82197, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.8313, 0.8395
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 0.8313 lower high breaks the October lower-high sequence and opens the path to the 0.8395 oct high
- Daily close back below the ema50 at 0.8220 (ema20 0.8232 just above) returns focus to the 0.8127 nov low
- Failure to hold the 0.8127 nov low, near the 61.8% fib of the rally, confirms a deeper lower-low
- Fed's Bowman/Paulson at 23:30 UTC, Thursday jobless claims and Friday core PPI could materially shift this read