22:03 UTC
Downtrend since mid-October double top, rebound stalling below ema20 · RSI 45 · price 0.81955
Lower highs (0.8395, 0.8313, 0.8227) and lower lows (0.8192, 0.8127).
The September rally from the 0.8052 sep low peaked in a double top at 0.8382 on Oct 1 and 0.8395 on Oct 14. Since then the pair has printed a lower high at 0.8313 and lower lows into the 0.8127 nov low, set after the Democratic midterm sweep hit USD, which held near the 78.6% retracement of the Sep–Oct rally fib. Friday's 165K NFP beat lifted price back to the 61.8% fib at 0.8183, but Monday stalled under the ema20 near 0.8230 as oil and yields eased. Price sits below both daily EMAs with RSI neutral around 45.
Support: 0.8183, 0.8127, 0.8052
Resistance: 0.8230, 0.8313, 0.8395
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the ema20 at 0.8230 and the descending trendline off the double top (near 0.8250) would challenge the lower-high sequence, with the 0.8313 lower high next.
- Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 0.8183 reopens the 0.8127 nov low. A close below it extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.8052 sep low.
- US October CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift Fed-hike pricing and this read.
- Hawkish SNB commentary on inflation or haven demand tied to Iran headlines would add CHF-side pressure on the pair.