Lower highs from 0.8313; higher low at 0.8174 off a 0.8127 base.
The slide from 0.8313 stalled at the 0.8127 swing low, which absorbed repeated tests near 0.8133. The 165K NFP beat then lifted the pair out of its 0.8125–0.8185 range and set a higher low at 0.8174. The rebound has been capped at the 0.8227 lower high, near the 50% retracement of the 0.8313–0.8127 fib, and price is back near 0.8195. That leaves it sitting between the old range top and EMA50 overhead. ATR(14) near 28 pips is contained, and EMA20 holding below EMA50 shows the swing has not yet turned on this timeframe.
Support: 0.8185, 0.8174, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8227, 0.8256
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.8227 lower high breaks the lower-high line and opens the 0.8256 prior high
Failure to hold the 0.8174 higher low and the 0.8185 range top puts the pair back in the old range, toward the 0.8127 swing low
US October CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; Waller speaks at 09:00 UTC
18:03 UTC
Recovering from late-Oct decline, higher lows off 0.8127 · RSI 61 · price 0.82123
Double bottom breakout testing 50% retracement of prior leg.
Price based out in a double bottom near 0.8130 last week and has since printed higher lows, with Friday's NFP beat lifting it out of the 0.8125–0.8185 range and leaving the range top as first support. The rebound is now pressing the 0.8220–0.8227 recent high, which lines up with the 50% fib of the 0.8313–0.8127 decline. Price holds above both EMAs, with EMA20 converging on EMA50 from below, and ATR(14) near 27 pips has eased from last week's expansion.
Support: 0.8185, 0.8174, 0.8130
Resistance: 0.8227, 0.8256, 0.8313
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.8227 recent high and 50% fib opens the 0.8256 lower high, with the 0.8313 swing high beyond
Slip back below the 0.8185 range top and the 0.8174 higher low breaks the higher-low sequence and returns focus to the double btm near 0.8130
US October CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read, with Waller at 09:00 UTC beforehand
Lower highs from 0.8313; higher lows off the 0.8127 base.
Since the 0.8313 swing high, USDCHF has printed lower highs: the prior high at 0.8256, then 0.8220. Repeated tests of the 0.8127–0.8133 base have held, and lows have stepped higher to 0.8174. The NFP beat lifted the pair to 0.8220, near UOB's cited 0.8205 cap, where it stalled at the 50% fib of the 0.8313–0.8127 leg. The pullback has left price near 0.8190, just under EMA(50), with ATR(14) contracting to about 27 pips as the lower-high and higher-low lines converge.
Support: 0.8174, 0.8133, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8220, 0.8256, 0.8313
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.8220 lower high and 50% fib breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.8256 prior high in focus
Failure to hold the 0.8174 higher low breaks the rising-lows trendline and reopens the 0.8133 base
A break of the 0.8127 swing low resumes the downtrend from the 0.8313 swing high
US October CPI on Tue 10 Nov at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a soft core print would pressure the pair back toward the base
10:03 UTC
Downtrend from 0.8313 stalling into a range · RSI 52 · price 0.81789
Lower highs from 0.8313; base at 0.8127-0.8135, range cap 0.8220.
The slide from the 0.8313 peak printed a 2-month low at 0.8127, and three tests of the 0.8127-0.8135 area since have held, turning the decline into a range. The post-NFP USD bid lifted price to 0.8220, the range top and an exact 50% retracement of the 0.8313-0.8127 drop, where it was rejected. Price has since slipped back below the fib 38.2 at 0.8198 and is trading just under both EMAs as ATR(14) compresses to around 27 pips.
Support: 0.8161, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8198, 0.8220, 0.8256
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.8220 range top breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 0.8256 lower high
Failure to hold the 0.8161 swing low re-exposes the 0.8127 2-month low
Break below 0.8127 resumes the downtrend from 0.8313
US October CPI Tue 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read; core MoM forecast is 0.2%
Price holding below the falling lower-high trendline keeps the downtrend structure intact
The three-week decline from the 0.8313 swing high based out at 0.8127–0.8135, where the triple base held three separate tests. The 165K NFP beat lifted price out of the 0.8130–0.8185 range, and the pair is now pressing the 0.8220 neckline, which also marks the 50% retrace of the drop and a lower-highs line from 0.8256. Price sits just above the ema50 with EMA20 still below it, so no H4 cross yet, and ATR(14) near 28 pips has eased from the expansion around the lows.
Support: 0.8202, 0.8185, 0.8130
Resistance: 0.8220, 0.8256, 0.8313
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.8220 neckline completes the triple bottom and opens the 0.8256 lower high
Slip back below the 0.8185 range top returns price to the 0.8130–0.8185 range and puts the triple base back in focus
EMA20 crossing above the ema50 near 0.8202 would confirm the swing turn
US CPI Tue 10 Nov 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read; a soft print unwinds Fed-hike odds
Trump–Qatar meeting Mon 17:00 GMT; progress lowers oil and could weigh on USD
Lower highs from 0.8313; 0.8127–0.8220 range with a higher low at 0.8133.
Lower-high sequence from the 0.8313 major high through the 0.8256 lower high delivered a slide to the 0.8127 2-month low, driven by CHF strength on the hot Swiss CPI and SNB hike repricing. Since then a base has formed: the range floor around 0.8135 held three times and the NFP beat lifted price to the 0.8220 swing high, where the 50% retracement of the 0.8313–0.8127 leg capped the move. Price now sits essentially on EMA(50) near 0.8193, with the ema20 at 0.8181 below. ATR(14) near 28 pips has contracted from the early-November expansion, so the 0.8127–0.8220 box is compressing.
Support: 0.8181, 0.8135, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8220, 0.8256, 0.8313
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.8220 swing high completes the double bottom and opens the 0.8256 lower high
Sustained trade back below the ema20 at 0.8181 returns focus to the 0.8135 range floor
Break of the 0.8127 2-month low resumes the lower-low sequence, exposing 0.8110/0.8100
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read given ~77% priced December Fed hike odds
Fed speakers Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin today, and Waller Tue 09:00 UTC, may move USD hike pricing