Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CHF daily chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
22:04 UTC
Downtrend from mid-October peak, Friday rebound off lows · RSI 46 · price 0.82071
Lower highs at 0.8395 and 0.8313, late-October floor broken to a 0.8127 swing low.
The Sept–Oct rally from the 0.8052 sept low topped at 0.8395 in mid-October. A lower high at 0.8313 followed in late October, and this week's break of the 0.8192 prior low ran to a 0.8127 swing low near the 78.6% retracement. CHF strength drove the slide, with a hot 1.5% Swiss CPI and haven demand behind it. Friday's NFP beat lifted the daily close back to 0.8207, but price stays below EMA20 and EMA50, and both are rolling over.
Support: 0.8192, 0.8127, 0.8052
Resistance: 0.8255, 0.8313, 0.8395
What it said to watch
- Daily close back above the 0.8255 breakdown area and the lower-high line would challenge the downtrend read
- A close above the 0.8313 lower high breaks the LH/LL sequence from the 0.8395 oct high
- Failure to hold 0.8192 prior low, then a close below the 0.8127 swing low, extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.8052 sept low
- US CPI Tue Nov 10 13:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
19:24 UTC
Downtrend since mid-Oct peak, bounce off lows · RSI 42 · price 0.82071
Lower highs and lower lows from 0.8395; price testing broken mid-Oct support.
USDCHF has printed lower highs since the 14 Oct oct high at 0.8395, first at the 0.8313 lower high and then near 0.8256. Lows stepped down to a 0.8127 swing low this week, with price below both EMA20 and EMA50 on D1. CHF strength on the hot Swiss CPI and haven demand drove the move to two-month lows. Friday's blowout NFP lifted the pair back to 0.8207, just under the 0.8220 broken low that held as support in mid-October and sits near the 38.2% fib of the October decline.
Support: 0.8127, 0.8052
Resistance: 0.8220, 0.8313, 0.8395
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 0.8220 broken low and 38.2% fib would test the lower-high trendline near 0.8255
- Break above the 0.8313 lower high ends the LH/LL sequence from the oct high
- Failure to hold the 0.8127 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.8052 sep low
- US CPI Tue 10 Nov 13:30 UTC, with Waller earlier that day, could materially shift this read