22:04 UTC
Downtrend since mid-October double top · RSI 38 · price 0.81533
Lower highs and lower lows below 0.8313; 0.8192 base broken this week.
USD/CHF has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 0.8395 double top on Oct 14. Rallies stalled at the 0.8313 lower high, and the 0.8192 broken base, which held three times in late October, gave way this week. The hot Swiss CPI and the post-midterm USD selloff drove the drop to a 0.8127 swing low, near the 78.6% level of the sep-oct rally fib. Price now sits below the ema20 (0.8235) and the EMA50, with RSI at 38 and still above oversold.
Support: 0.8127, 0.8052
Resistance: 0.8192, 0.8235, 0.8313
What it said to watch
- Daily close back above the 0.8192 broken base would neutralise the lower-low read and bring the falling trendline from the 0.8395 high (near 0.8260) into view
- Failure to hold the 0.8127 swing low exposes the 0.8052 sep low at the base of the sep-oct rally fib
- Only a recovery through the 0.8313 lower high would break the LH/LL sequence
- Fri Nov 6 13:30 UTC US NFP (f/c 65K), with unemployment and AHE, could materially shift this read