USD/CHF AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Thursday, 5 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CHF 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:03 UTC
Downtrend since Monday, stalling into a range · RSI 47 · price 0.81643
Lower highs from Tue 0.8217; flat 0.8127–0.8186 range since Wednesday.
The week's dominant move began at Monday's London open from 0.8253. It extended through Tuesday's hot Swiss CPI and Wednesday's Asia-session midterm USD sell-off to a week low at 0.8127. Since then price has ranged 0.8127–0.8186: Thursday's NY dip held the thu low at 0.8133, and rallies were rejected twice at the range top, near the 61.8% of the Tue-Wed drop. Price now sits just above EMA(20) at 0.8160 and on the 38.2% retracement, below Thursday's late NY high at 0.8174, with RSI(14) near 47 and the lower-highs line from the Tue high still intact.
Support: 0.8160, 0.8133, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8174, 0.8186, 0.8217
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8186 range top breaks the lower-highs line and opens the path to the Tue high at 0.8217
Failure to hold the thu low at 0.8133 and the 0.8127 week low resumes the downtrend toward 0.8110
Holding below Thursday's 0.8174 NY high with EMA(20) at 0.8160 giving way keeps the range-bottom retest in play
US NFP at 13:30 UTC Friday (f/c 65K), with Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
22:03 UTC
Downtrend since weekly open, now basing · RSI 55 · price 0.81663
Lower highs Mon–Tue, then 0.8127–0.8185 range since Wednesday.
USD/CHF has slid from the 0.8248 weekly open in three legs: Monday's London open, Tuesday's hot Swiss CPI, and Wednesday's Asia-session midterm selloff to the 0.8127 week low. Since then price has ranged 0.8127–0.8185. Thursday's NY-session dip on falling yields held the range floor near 0.8133 for a third time after a rejection at the range top, which sits at the 61.8% retrace of the drop from the Tue high. The rebound has price back above EMA(20) near 0.8160 but just under a flat EMA(50), with RSI(14) at 55, mid-cycle.
Support: 0.8160, 0.8133, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8185, 0.8217, 0.8248
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8185 range top (61.8% fib) breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 0.8217 Tue high
Failure to hold the 0.8133 range floor and the 0.8127 week low confirms a lower-low
Slip back under EMA(20) at 0.8160 returns price to the lower half of the range
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; Fed's Williams speaks at 09:30 UTC
21:03 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into a range · RSI 58 · price 0.81728
Lower highs since Monday; 0.8133–0.8186 range since Wednesday.
USDCHF has shed about 75 pips from the 0.8248 weekly open. Monday's London open drove the first leg, the hot Swiss CPI spiked Tuesday's London morning, and the post-midterm USD selloff during Wednesday's Asia session printed the 0.8127 week low. Since then the pair has held a 0.8133–0.8186 range. Demand stepped in at the range base again after Thursday's NY-hours drop, and price is back above the ema20 near 0.8161. It sits at the 50% retracement of the Tuesday high to week low decline, just under the lower-highs line from 0.8217. RSI(14) is near 57 and has not reached overbought during the rebound.
Support: 0.8161, 0.8133, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8186, 0.8217, 0.8248
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8186 range top (also near the 61.8% retrace) and the lower-highs line would break the week's lower-high sequence, with the 0.8217 tuesday high next
Failure to hold the 0.8133 range base exposes the 0.8127 week low; a close below confirms a lower-low
Slipping back under the ema20 at 0.8161 keeps the pair inside the range
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K), with Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
A move back toward the 0.8248 weekly open would need a clean break above 0.8217 first
20:03 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into a range · RSI 51 · price 0.81655
0.8127–0.8186 range under lower highs since Wednesday.
The week opened at 0.8248 and the dominant legs were lower. London sold it Monday, Swiss CPI drove a drop early Tuesday, and after Tuesday's NY rebound to the 0.8217 tue high faded, the post-midterm USD selloff in Wednesday's Asia session printed the week low at 0.8127. Since then price has held a 0.8127–0.8186 range, capped by a lower-highs line from Tuesday. Thursday's NY-session dip stopped at 0.8133, above the week low, so the higher lows line from Wednesday is intact. Price has recovered above ema20 at 0.8159 and is pressing ema50 at 0.8167, inside the 38.2–50% fib of the tue-wed drop, with RSI(14) back at neutral near 51.
Support: 0.8159, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8167, 0.8186, 0.8217
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8186 range top clears the lower-highs line and opens the 0.8217 tue high
Failure to hold the 0.8127 week low resumes the downtrend; the digest flags 0.8110 below
Sustained trade back under ema20 at 0.8159 shifts focus to the higher lows line near 0.8131
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; Fed's Williams speaks at 09:30 UTC
Lower highs since Monday; 0.8127–0.8186 range since Wednesday.
From the 0.8248 weekly open, supply has capped each rebound. The pair printed lower highs at the 0.8217 Tuesday high and twice at the 0.8186 range top on Wednesday and Thursday, the latter the 61.8% retracement of the post-election drop to the 0.8127 week low during Wednesday's Asia session. Thursday's London rally from 0.8135 was fully reversed in the NY session despite the firm 189K claims print, leaving the Thursday NY low at 0.8133 near the range floor, price just under the ema20 at 0.8157 and RSI(14) flat near 51.
Support: 0.81325, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.8157, 0.81858, 0.82169
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 0.8186 range top breaks the lower-high sequence and brings the 0.8217 Tuesday high into view
Failure to hold the 0.8133 Thursday NY low and 0.8127 week low confirms a lower-low along the range floor; the CHF digest flags 0.8110 below
Reclaim of the ema20 at 0.8157 would neutralise Thursday's NY reversal
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) and Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Monday; 0.8127–0.8186 range since Wednesday.
USD/CHF has printed lower highs since the week opened near 0.8248. The post-midterm Asia-session drop on Wednesday set the week low at 0.8127, with firm CHF after the hot Swiss CPI adding weight. Rebounds have stalled at the range top near 0.8186, just above the 61.8% retrace of the Tuesday high to week low leg, and London's push there today was rejected in the NY session back toward the Thursday low at 0.8133. Price sits below the EMA20 at 0.8152 with RSI(14) in the low 40s.
Support: 0.81325, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.8152, 0.81858, 0.82169
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8127 week low confirms a lower low and exposes 0.8110
Close back above the ema20 near 0.8152 returns price to the middle of the range
Close above the 0.8186 range top clears the lower-highs line and reopens the tue high at 0.8217
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K), with Williams at 09:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
17:02 UTC
Downtrend, ranging near the week lows · RSI 41 · price 0.81445
Lower highs since Monday, 0.8127–0.8186 range since Wednesday.
USDCHF has printed lower highs all week from Monday's 0.8254 high. The Asia-session slide on Wednesday's midterm results set the 0.8127 week low, and since then price has ranged 0.8127–0.8186. The range top, near the 61.8% retracement of the election drop, rejected Wednesday and Thursday, and Thursday's NY-session drop through the US data block (claims beat, unit labour costs miss) left price below EMA(20) near 0.8156, with RSI(14) at 41 and the thu low at 0.8133 holding so far.
Support: 0.81325, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.81565, 0.81858, 0.82169
What it said to watch
H1 close below the thu low at 0.8133 and the 0.8127 week low breaks the range floor and exposes the 0.8110 area
Recovery above EMA(20) at 0.8156 and a close through the 0.8186 range top would end the lower-high sequence, with the tue high at 0.8217 next above
Fri NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) and AHE could materially shift this read; Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC comes first
Lower highs since Tuesday; 0.8127–0.8185 range within the decline.
USD/CHF has printed lower highs all week from the 0.8248 weekly open. The dominant leg was Wednesday's Asia-session slide to the 0.8127 week low, with CHF already firm after Tuesday's hot Swiss CPI. Thursday's London rebound stalled at 0.8185, a lower high just above the 61.8% fib of the Tue high to week low move, and the NY session reversed it despite the claims beat, leaving price back under EMA(20) near 0.8158 while demand has stepped in twice at the 0.8133 Thu low and 0.8127 week low.
Support: 0.81335, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.8158, 0.81855, 0.82169
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8127 week low confirms a lower-low and extends the downtrend out of the 0.8127–0.8185 range
H1 close above the 0.8185 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and voids the downtrend read, exposing the 0.8217 Tue high
Price regaining EMA(20) near 0.8158 and holding it on pullbacks would mark the first shift in this week's rhythm
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and US NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 65K, AHE 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read
15:02 UTC
Downtrend from Monday, now basing in a range · RSI 48 · price 0.81604
Lower highs since Monday, higher low Thursday inside 0.8127–0.8186.
USD/CHF has printed lower highs since Monday's 0.8254 peak. Wednesday's Asia-session slide on post-midterm USD selling set the 0.8127 week low, and price has held a 0.8127–0.8186 range since. Thursday's London rebound stalled at the range top, just above the 61.8% of the Tuesday–Wednesday drop. The first hour of NY then rejected it despite the firm claims and productivity prints, leaving price just under EMA20, below the EMA50 near 0.8169, with RSI(14) back near 48. Demand has stepped in three times at the 0.8150 base, and the 0.8135 higher low sits above the week low.
Support: 0.8150, 0.8135, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8169, 0.8186, 0.8217
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 0.8186 range top breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the path to Tuesday's 0.8217 high (tue high)
A reclaim of the EMA50 near 0.8169 would shift the range toward its upper half
Failure to hold the 0.8150 base exposes the 0.8135 higher low; a break below the 0.8127 week low resumes the downtrend
Friday's NFP (13:30 GMT, f/c 65K) and AHE could materially shift this read; Fed's Williams speaks at 09:30 GMT
14:03 UTC
Downtrend since Monday, rebounding off a higher low · RSI 59 · price 0.81793
Lower highs from 0.8253 into a 0.8127/0.8135 base; price now testing the Wednesday swing high.
From the 0.8248 weekly open the pair sold off in three legs. The first came in Monday's London session. The second was Tuesday's hot Swiss CPI drop to 0.8149. The third was the Asia-session midterm sweep to the 0.8127 week low on Wednesday. Thursday's Asia dip held at 0.8135 (thu low), a higher low. A rally from the London open, kept supported by the US claims and productivity beats, lifted price back above ema20 and EMA(50) and into the 0.8186 wed high. RSI(14) has recovered to ~59 from the mid-30s. The 0.8186 wed high is now the neckline of a possible double bottom, with the fib 50% of the Mon-Wed drop just above at 0.8190.
Support: 0.81654, 0.81349, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.81858, 0.81904, 0.82169
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8186 wed high completes the double bottom and opens fib 50% at 0.8190, then the 0.8217 tue high
Rejection at 0.8186 and a close back below ema20 (~0.8165) returns focus to the thu low at 0.8135 and the higher-low line
A break of the 0.8127 week low resumes the lower-low downtrend sequence
Reaction to Schlegel's remarks and Fri 13:30 UTC NFP (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
13:02 UTC
Downtrend from weekly open, rebounding off week low · RSI 60 · price 0.8177
Lower highs all week; higher low at 0.8135 testing 0.8186 cap.
USD/CHF has printed lower highs since the 0.8248 weekly open. Tuesday's hot Swiss CPI and Wednesday's Asia-session selloff on the Democratic midterm sweep drove price to a 0.8127 week low. Thursday's Asia dip found a higher low at 0.8135, and the London rally lifted price back above EMA(20) into the 0.8186 lower high, which coincides with the 38.2% fib of the week's decline. RSI(14) has recovered from the high-30s to about 60, but the double bottom stays unconfirmed while the 0.8186 lower high caps.
Support: 0.8164, 0.8135, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8186, 0.8217, 0.8248
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8186 lower high confirms the double bottom and exposes the 0.8217 Tue high (tue high)
Loss of the 0.8164 ema20, then the 0.8135 higher low, puts the 0.8127 week low back in focus
SNB's Schlegel and US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC, plus Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC, could materially shift this read
Friday NFP (f/c 65K) is the next major risk; a return toward the 0.8248 weekly open needs acceptance above 0.8217
Lower highs from Tuesday, higher low at 0.8135, now testing 0.8186.
USD/CHF has fallen from Monday's 0.8248 week open. The hot Swiss CPI on Tuesday and the post-midterm dollar slide in Wednesday's Asia session carried it to a week low at 0.8127, with each rally capped below the prior high. Thursday's Asia dip stalled at 0.8135, a higher low, and the London rally has pushed back above EMA(20) at 0.8163 and through the lower-high line. Price is now retesting the Wednesday high near 0.8186, the neckline of a tentative double bottom and just above the 38.2% fib of the week decline, with RSI(14) back to ~58 from below 40 overnight.
Support: 0.8163, 0.81349, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.81858, 0.82169, 0.82475
What it said to watch
H1 close above the wed high at 0.8186 confirms the double bottom and opens the tue high at 0.8217
Above 0.8217, the 0.8248 week open is the next reference and caps the week decline fib
Slip back below ema20 0.8163 and the thu low 0.8135 breaks the higher-low line and re-exposes the week low at 0.8127
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read, with NFP on Friday at 13:30 GMT
Lower highs all week; 0.8127–0.8186 range since Wednesday.
From the 0.8248 week open, USD/CHF has printed a lower high each day. The Tuesday NY recovery after the hot Swiss CPI stalled at the 0.8217 tue high, and Wednesday's Asia-session slide on post-midterm USD weakness carved the 0.8127 week low. Since then price has ranged between 0.8127 and 0.8186. Thursday's Asian dip held a higher low at 0.8135, and the London rebound has lifted price back above EMA(20) near 0.8160 to the 50% retracement at 0.8172. RSI(14) is neutral near 52 and price is pressed against the lower-highs line.
Support: 0.8160, 0.81349, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.81858, 0.82169, 0.82475
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 0.8186 wed high clears the 61.8% retracement and the lower-highs line, opening the 0.8217 tue high
Failure back below EMA(20) at 0.8160 and the 0.8135 thu low re-exposes the 0.8127 week low; a break there resumes the lower-low sequence
SNB's Schlegel at 13:30 UTC, alongside US jobless claims, could materially shift this read
Friday's US payrolls are the next USD risk for the range
Lower-high sequence intact; higher low at 0.8135 vs 0.8127 week low.
USDCHF has printed a lower high every day since Monday's 0.8254 peak. The steepest leg came in Wednesday's Asia session on the midterm outcome, which set the 0.8127 week low as broad USD selling met a franc already firm after Tuesday's hot Swiss CPI. Thursday's Asia dip stopped at 0.8135 for a higher low, and the London open bounce has lifted price back above EMA(20) at 0.8159 into the falling trendline near 0.8174. EMA(50) sits there too, alongside the 38.2% retracement of the week's decline. RSI(14) has recovered to 56, and the 0.8186 wed high is the neckline of a possible double bottom that is not yet confirmed.
Support: 0.8159, 0.8135, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8174, 0.8186, 0.8217
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8174 trendline and 0.8186 wed high breaks the week's lower-high sequence and completes the double bottom read
Rejection at the trendline with a slip back under ema20 at 0.8159 keeps the downtrend structure in place
Loss of 0.8135 today low and the 0.8127 week low resumes the lower-low sequence
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims, both at 13:30 GMT, could materially shift this read
A clear push through 0.8186 puts the 0.8217 tue high back in view
Friday's NFP and AHE are the next USD catalyst for the week's structure
Lower highs each day since the weekly open, lows flattening at 0.8127-0.8135.
USD/CHF has printed lower highs every day since the 0.8248 weekly open: the Tue high at 0.8217, the Wed high at 0.8186 and today's London high at 0.8168. Two legs did most of the damage. Tuesday's hot Swiss CPI drove the first in early Europe, and the midterm-driven USD selloff in Wednesday's Asia session took the pair to the 0.8127 2-month low. Thursday's Asian low at 0.8135 held above that floor, and the London-open bounce stalled at the lower-highs trendline. Price now sits on EMA(20) near 0.8156 and the 23.6% retracement of the week drop, with RSI(14) in the mid-40s.
Support: 0.8135, 0.8127, 0.8100
Resistance: 0.8168, 0.8186, 0.8217
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 0.8127 2-month low extends the lower-low sequence and opens the 0.8100 round number
A close above the lower-highs trendline and the 0.8168 London high would break the daily lower-high sequence and bring the 0.8186 Wed high into view
Reclaiming the 0.8217 Tue high would undo the CPI-driven leg entirely
Repeated holds at the 0.8135 Asian low would keep the read as compression rather than continuation
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims, both at 13:30 UTC today, could break the 0.8127-0.8168 compression
US Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday at 13:30 UTC is the main event risk for the week's structure
Lower highs all week; Thursday low held above Wednesday's 0.8127.
USD/CHF has printed lower highs from Monday's 0.8254 week high through the 0.8217 tue high and 0.8186 wed high. The two dominant legs came in Monday's London session and Wednesday's Asia session, when the dollar slid on the Democratic midterm sweep and lower oil after Tuesday's hot 1.5% Swiss CPI. Thursday's Asian retest stalled at the 0.8135 thu low, just above the 0.8127 week low, and the London-open bounce has carried price back to the ema20 near 0.8156 with RSI(14) recovering toward 41.
Support: 0.8135, 0.8127, 0.8100
Resistance: 0.8156, 0.8186, 0.8217
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8127 week low confirms a fresh lower-low and exposes the 0.8100 round number
Failure at the ema20 and the lower-high trendline keeps the downtrend sequence intact; a close above the 0.8186 wed high breaks it
38.2% retracement of the week high-low fib sits near 0.8175, just under the wed high
A loss of the 0.8135 thu low puts the Wednesday low back in play
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC, then Friday's NFP, could materially shift this read
Reclaiming the 0.8217 tue high would undo most of the week's lower-high structure
07:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs each day · RSI 36 · price 0.8136
Lower highs and lows; pressing week low.
USD/CHF has printed a lower high every day since Monday's 0.8254 Asia-session top. Most of the damage came in two legs: Tuesday's London drop on the hot Swiss CPI and Wednesday's Asia-session slide to the 0.8127 week low after the Democratic midterm sweep. Wednesday's NY rebound stalled at the 0.8186 lower high, short of the 50% retracement of the week's drop. Thursday's Asia leg has since pushed price back below ema20 and ema50, testing the 0.8135 asia low with RSI(14) near 35, still above Wednesday's sub-30 trough.
Support: 0.8135, 0.8127, 0.8100
Resistance: 0.8154, 0.8171, 0.8186
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8127 week low extends the lower-low sequence and opens the 0.8100 round number
Reclaim of ema20 at 0.8154 and ema50 near 0.8171 would neutralise Thursday's Asia leg; a break of the lower-highs trendline and the 0.8186 lower high breaks the week's structure
A new low with RSI(14) holding above Wednesday's sub-30 reading would mark fading downside momentum
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Friday's NFP at 13:30 UTC is the larger catalyst
06:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs each day · RSI 34 · price 0.81442
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; Thursday's Asia low holding above the week low.
USDCHF has printed a lower high every day since the 0.8254 Monday peak. The Democratic sweep and the oil slump drove Wednesday's Asia slide to the 0.8127 week low, while hot Swiss CPI kept the franc bid. Wednesday's NY bounce stalled at the 0.8186 lower high, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the week's decline. Thursday's Asia session pushed back below EMA(20) to a 0.8135 asia low, a marginally higher low so far, with RSI(14) in the mid-30s and not yet oversold.
Support: 0.81354, 0.81273, 0.8100
Resistance: 0.8156, 0.81858, 0.82169
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8186 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and opens the 0.8217 tue high
Failure to hold the 0.8127 week low confirms a fresh lower-low, with the 0.8100 round number next
Repeated H1 closes back above the ema20 near 0.8156 would signal the Asia leg has stalled
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Friday's NFP is the larger catalyst
Lower highs and lows since Monday; testing above week low.
USD/CHF has printed lower highs and lower lows since Monday's open near 0.8248. The sharpest leg came in Wednesday's Asia session, when the Democratic midterm sweep drove USD selling and haven demand for CHF into the 0.8127 week low. Wednesday's ADP-led rebound met rejection at 0.8186, a lower high between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the week high-low move and on the lower-highs trendline, and Thursday's Asia session has slipped back below EMA(20) to a 0.8135 asia low with RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 0.81351, 0.81273, 0.8100
Resistance: 0.8158, 0.81858, 0.82169
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8127 week low extends the lower-low sequence, with the 0.8100 round number next below
Recovery above the ema20 near 0.8158 and the 0.8186 lower high would break the lower-highs trendline; Tuesday's 0.8217 prior high sits above
Holding the 0.8135 asia low keeps Thursday's dip above the week low
SNB's Schlegel at 13:30 UTC, plus US jobless claims and Fed's Hammack at 13:30–13:50 UTC, could materially shift this read
Friday's NFP (f/c 65K) is the larger event risk for the week's structure
04:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs each day · RSI 30 · price 0.81386
Lower highs, retesting 2-month low.
USDCHF has printed a lower high every day since the week opened near 0.8248. The heavy legs came outside NY: London open on Monday, then Asia on Wednesday, when the Democratic midterm sweep hit the dollar and drove the 0.8127 2-month low. The NY-session rebound after the ADP beat stalled at the 0.8186 Wed high, just above the 61.8% retrace of Tuesday's 0.8217 high (the Tue high) to Wednesday's low. Today's Asia session has pushed price back below EMA(20) into a retest of the low area, with RSI(14) near 30 and no divergence against Wednesday.
Support: 0.81354, 0.81273, 0.8100
Resistance: 0.8159, 0.81858, 0.82169
What it said to watch
Holding today's Asia low at 0.8135 keeps a higher low against the 0.8127 2-month low; an H1 close below 0.8127 extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8100 round number
H1 close back above EMA20 near 0.8159 and the lower-highs trendline (~0.8169) would challenge the downtrend read, with the Wed high at 0.8186 the next cap and the Tue high at 0.8217 beyond
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC Thu, then Fri NFP, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from week open; Asia retesting the two-month low.
USDCHF has carved lower highs since the 0.8248 week open: 0.8254 Monday, 0.8217 on Tuesday's NY rebound after the hot Swiss CPI drop, and 0.8186 Wednesday. The Democratic midterm sweep drove the Wednesday Asia slide to the 0.8127 two-month low. Wednesday's recovery met rejection near the 50% retracement of the week high-low move, and Thursday's Asia session has slipped to 0.8135 below EMA(20) near 0.8162. RSI(14) is near 38, consistent with the downtrend but not oversold.
Support: 0.81354, 0.81273, 0.8100
Resistance: 0.8162, 0.81858, 0.82169
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8135 Asia low and the 0.8127 two-month low would extend the lower-low sequence and expose the 0.8100 round number
An H1 close back above EMA(20) at 0.8162 and the 0.8186 Wed high breaks the lower-high trendline read
A move back through the 0.8217 Tue high would undo the week's lower-high structure
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims, both Thu 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read; Friday NFP is the larger USD risk
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.8248 weekly open; price retesting the week low.
USDCHF has carved lower highs since the 0.8248 weekly open, with the Asia session driving the main legs. Wednesday's midterm-driven USD selling set the 0.8127 week low, and the NY rebound stalled at the 0.8186 lower high near the 61.8% retrace of the tue-wed drop. Today's Asia slide has taken price back below the ema20 near 0.8162, toward a retest of the week low with RSI(14) near 40 and a hot Swiss CPI keeping CHF firm.
Support: 0.8127, 0.8100
Resistance: 0.8162, 0.8186, 0.8217
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8127 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8100 round number
Reclaim of the ema20 at 0.8162 and a close above the 0.8186 lower high breaks the lower highs trendline read
Tuesday high at 0.8217 caps the wider structure; only a move through it negates the weekly downtrend
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims, both at 13:30 UTC Thursday, could materially shift this read
Friday's NFP (f/c 65K) is the next dollar-side catalyst for the week-low retest
Lower highs from Monday's 0.8254 week high; rebound capped at fib 61.8.
USDCHF has printed lower highs all week from Monday's 0.8254 high. The post-midterm USD selloff and hot Swiss CPI drove Wednesday's Asia-session flush to the 0.8127 swing low. The NY-session rebound stalled at 0.8186, the fib 61.8 of the Tuesday high-to-Wednesday low leg, and Thursday's Asia trade has slipped back below EMA(20) near 0.8167 with RSI(14) around 40, pressing Wednesday's 0.8146 pullback low.
Support: 0.81455, 0.81273, 0.8100
Resistance: 0.8167, 0.81858, 0.82169
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8146 pullback low exposes the 0.8127 swing low, with the 0.8100 psych level beyond
Recovery above EMA(20) at 0.8167 and the 0.8186 fib 61.8 would break the lower-highs sequence and open the 0.8217 tuesday high
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims, both Thu 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read ahead of Friday's NFP
Lower highs from tue high, tight range above wed low.
USD/CHF has traded below the 0.8248 weekly open since Monday's London session. Tuesday's hot Swiss CPI added pressure, and the post-midterm USD selling during Wednesday's Asia session took price to the 0.8127 week low. The ADP-led NY rebound stalled at the 0.8186 wed high, near the 61.8% fib of the drop from the 0.8217 tue high, which leaves a lower high in place. Price now sits just under ema20 at the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) flat in the mid-40s and ATR compressing into Asia.
Support: 0.81455, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.8168, 0.81858, 0.82169
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.8186 wed high breaks the lower-high trendline and weakens the downtrend read
Failure to hold 0.8145 wed low exposes the 0.8127 week low, with 0.8100 below
Sustained trade back above ema20 near 0.8168 would shift the read toward range
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims, both Thu 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Friday's NFP (f/c 65K) is the next major dollar-side risk for the tue high / week low range